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Good morning, everyone, and welcome back. It is Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com for Tuesday, May 28, 2024. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are mixed. Dow futures are lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are slightly higher this morning. Commodities are also trading up. So that could help the TSX on Tuesday morning. Now, us markets were closed yesterday. Canadian markets were open, but very thinly traded. A lot of people in the financial world take the long weekend and it’s an unofficial golfing day, really. We’ll take a look at some of the volumes in a minute or two. We’re going to look at the magnificent seven stocks plus shopify today just to get a handle on what they’re doing. The Vix had an inside day on Friday. Things would change on Tuesday if the VIX closed above 13.14. Now, the Dow had a huge down day on Thursday, didn’t make much headway at all on Friday, closing slightly lower on the day. So no change there. It was Boeing that took the Dow down on Thursday, recovered a little bit on Friday. Then looking at the S&P 500, still on a buy signal here.

Inside day on Friday, similar situation for the Nasdaq 100 and for the semiconductors. Then looking at the canadian market, the ishares for the TSX 60 ended Thursday on a sell signal. Came back a little on Friday. Having an inside day was up slightly yesterday, but yesterday was an extremely thinly traded day. The average volume for this ETF is a little over 2 million shares. Yesterday it was less than 500,000. So dramatic drop in volume yesterday, not the type of day you really want to take action on. Similar situation for the Royal Bank, for example, it traded down into the channel on Friday, but recovered, closing higher on the day. Average volume for this stock is over 4.5 million shares. Yesterday was a little over 500,000. Yep, the market was open yesterday. But do I want to react to anything that happened on Monday? Not at all. And so that’s why we don’t even print the charts for a day like yesterday. Now moving on to the Magnificent 8. And of course, it’s the Magnificent Seven plus Shopify. Looking at the ETF, it made a new closing high on Friday. It’s going to be trading up this morning.

We’ve got some of the stocks in, in this list trading higher in the pre market inside day for Alphabet on Friday, a close on Tuesday below $171.71 would give us a sell signal. No joy for Amazon. Still on a sell signal here. That would change on Tuesday with a close above $185.86. Next up, we’re looking at Apple. And Apple drove right down to the lower channel line on Thursday, closing I believe one penny above the lower channel line. And on Friday we had an inside day looking for a close below 187.23 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. Now in the premarket this morning, Apple is currently trading up at the 193.75 level. It’s traded a little above it, so if you had an order in up there, it’s probably going to get filled at the open. Our next mathematical target is $200, but we know that previously we got up as high as $199.62. If you still have Apple shares left, you probably want to put an order in just below the 199.62 level. Looking at Meta, we’re still treading water here, but still on a buy signal. Things would change on Tuesday with a close below $464.65. If we can get up above the top of that open gap, then $500 is certainly a legitimate target.

And then above that, 531.25 is also a legitimate target to the upside then looking at Microsoft. And remember, we’re looking for low risk opportunities where the stock is down at the bottom of the Panic Zone. So most of the sellers have probably left the building. And then we have enough downward momentum to give us a pressure zone. And when that happens, we look for momentum to change the chart to turn color. And here we are, we’re up at the top of the Panic Zones, currently ranked at ten. Early warning signal yeah, we can move higher from here, but you know, putting new money in here is high risk. Of course, you can always look for a couple of things. First of all, if you put in new money here, you have to be willing to get out on a close below the lower channel line. And of course, the first sign something new is happening is going to be the first close below the previous day’s low. If you look back here and we follow up, you’ll notice that we did not close below the previous day’s low. We closed at the previous day’s low there, but not below it.

And there’s another situation where we closed at the previous day’s low. So that’s one of the first things I look for as a sign of a possible change in momentum and a probable change in trend. So on Tuesday morning, we’re looking at Microsoft and we’re looking for a close below $419.12 to give us a sell signal. Our next target on the daily chart is $437.50. And our next target on the weekly chart is also 437.50. Then looking at Nvidia. Nvidia is trading higher in the pre market this morning. Remember, all this started when we were down at the bottom of Panic Zones. a Pressure Zone was forming. The chart started to turn color. Back then we were looking to see if the Flypaper would hold as support. Remember, when you’re trading below the Flypaper channel, it should act as resistance when you’re trading above it. The market should want to buy the dips if it’s still in a bullish mode. If the market still loves the stock, they’re going to be buying the dips off the Flypaper channel. And if we go back a month to April 22, we were down at the Flypaper channel. And then that’s how things turned out.

So always looking to watch the best stocks and buy them on the dip. And of course, the underperforming stocks are going to be under the Flypaper channel and looking at the Flypaper channel as possible resistance. So we’re up this morning in the pre market. Our next mathematical target on the daily chart is now 1125. That is also our next target on the weekly chart. Then looking at Shopify. Shopify is pretty ugly looking chart. We peaked back here in February, made a lower high, lower high. We made a low, lower low. And what do you know, we’re now making a lower low. So it’s an ugly looking stock, but it is very oversold. We’re at the bottom of the Panic Zones, a Pressure Zone has formed. So I would take a buy signal if it came up now. It did trade yesterday, but again, when you look at the volumes, you know, we were missing 2 million shares yesterday on the TSX, so really don’t care what happened yesterday. We’re trying to get down to $75 down at the bottom there. But there is a potential area of support at the 76.50 level, which is the top of the open gap from last fall.

So that may be acting as support if we look up on the TSX. We’re looking for a close on Tuesday above 83.20. In New York, it’s currently trading up twenty five cents. And so there, we’re looking for a close above $60.52. So not expecting a buy signal on Tuesday, but if one showed up, I would certainly be willing to take it. You can see it’s going to be a rough move to the upside. We’ve got that open gap there. And so the bottom of that open gap may act as resistance on the way back up last up this morning, we’re looking at Tesla. And Tesla popped last week and then pulled back into the channel. It’s still on a buy signal here. Things would change on Tuesday if we closed below $173.62. Now, if we look at what’s going on, the pros going into the long weekend gave up control, so that’s not a good sign. If we look at our price target chart, you can see we’ve been trading between these two price targets the past couple of weeks. For the past few months we’ve been in this range here and we’re currently above the halfway mark.

So we’re really looking for a move out above 187.50 to tell us that we want to go back up to the 203.13 level with possible resistance at 200. And you can see, unfortunately, the 200 day moving average held us in check recently and now it’s the 100 day moving average and we’re clustering around the 50 day moving average. And of course the Flypaper channel is acting as resistant, so it would be very bullish if we could break out above the Flypaper channel. We are coming into Tuesday on a buy signal that has not changed, but it is looking like a very, very weak buy signal. Ok, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. And at that time we’ll take a more broader look at the north american stock markets.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In this presentation, we’re going to take a look at some of the stocks listed on the Stockhouse Bullboards in the industrial and energy sectors. Now today, the Canadian markets are technically open, but it’s really an unofficial golfing day. Volumes are going to be very low today. And the reason for that is the us markets are closed. So we’re not going to have any adult supervision from the us markets. And I wouldn’t take anything that happens on Monday seriously. In fact, we’re not even going to print charts on Monday night based on Monday’s data. Now we’ll start off looking at the TSX itself. It’s coming off a new high last week and then ended the week down two thirds of a percent, still trading above the upper trend line. So not concerned about a weekly sell signal this week. Now, Thursday was a very bad day for the north american markets and the TSX actually ended the day on a sell signal. On Friday, markets came back going into a long weekend. Going into month end, markets usually have a bullish bias to them.

We did come back on Friday, had an inside day. So we’re still on a sell signal coming into Monday’s trading action. Now let’s start off looking at the energy sector, and we’ll start off by looking at the commodities themselves. We’ve got crude oil on a weekly sell signal right now. We ended the week down a little over 2%, which is not a big move for crude oil. If you connect the dots here, you can see that we’re working ourselves into a triangle. We recently made a lower high, which is bearish. But back in the fall we made a higher low, which is bullish. So those things basically cancel each other out. And now we’re looking for a breakout of this triangle as we are settling in on a weekly sell signal. Now, looking at a daily chart of crude oil, you can see we are currently projecting lower prices here. We were looking for a new rally to start and that really fizzled out fairly quickly. If you were with us last week, we ended the previous week on a daily buy signal, but that faded over the last five trading days. The pros are not in control at the moment.

We did have a bullish reversal signal on Friday. We’ve had several of them that haven’t really amounted to too much over the past couple of weeks. And on Tuesday, when the futures are open again, we’re going to be looking for a close above $79.12. To give us a new daily buy signal. Crude oil. As you can see, we haven’t broken down. Looks like we’re putting in some support here. Let’s hope that that holds if we want to see crude oil move higher and take a run back to the recent highs from back in early April. Now, on the other hand, Natural Gas has had a tremendous month of May. Unfortunately, we ran up and hit the 200 day moving average on Thursday and reversed, and then hit came down again on Friday, trying to hold the 100 day moving average and trying to hold the Flypaper channel. It would be kind of nice if we could find buyers here to take us higher from where we are right now. If we start slipping down below the Flypaper channel, that’s going to be very bearish for Natural Gas going forward. Now moving on to the stocks themselves.

Looking at the iShares for the TSX Energy Sector, you can see the early warning signal up there at the top, top of the screen. And since then, we’ve actually been just treading water here. If we look at the weekly right side chart, you can see we’re still on a weekly buy signal. So no change in trend. That would change this coming Friday if we were to close below $18.19. Now, looking at daily charts of the energy stocks, we are in neutral at the moment. And if look at daily chart of the iShares for the TSX Energy Sector, you can see after peaking in early April, we’ve just been treading water here. And so we are finding buyers down the 18.50 level. And so far that has been holding. I’d really like to see a move out above the high from back in April here. That would be the first sign something new is happening. Otherwise, the sector is just treading water. The pros are not in control at the moment, so that’s not helpful. Now, looking at the stockhouse Bullboards here, we do cover four of the six stocks listed here, and we’ll walk through those right now.

And none of them are looking very pretty at the moment. Looking at a daily chart of Baytex, we’re still projecting lower prices here. We’re coming in on Monday on a sell signal that would change if Baytek could close above $4.82. Looking at Tamarack again, we could continuing to project lower prices here. Tamarack put in another lower low this week. And you can see the Pressure Zone is starting to become elongated. We had an opportunity to find some buyers and move up, and that quickly fizzled out. So here we are. We’re coming in on a daily sell signal. Friday was a fairly quiet day, inside day for this stock. So the next a level we’re looking at right now is a close above $3.70. If that doesn’t happen on Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Then, looking at Athabasca, this stock is really treading water at the moment. You can see the Pressure Zone that formed. We were looking for a move up from this point, and it fizzled out fairly quickly. So that Pressure Zone is starting to fade away. Now, on a bullish note, we’re still holding the Flypaper channel here.

So investors are pretty happy with the value of this stock at the moment, but they’re not willing to put more money in. So they’re not sellers, they’re not buyers. They’re just treading water here. At the 100 day moving average, the pros are pretty close to taking control, but they haven’t done it so far. And again, you can see we’re treading water. We had a new sell signal on Thursday, inside day on Friday. So technically a close above $4.96 would give give us a new daily buy signal. But I’d really want to see the stock start to trade and close above $5.08. You can see since the middle of February, we’ve been in a trading range, and 98% of all trading activity has been between $5.47 and $4.69. The midpoint is $5.08. I’d like to see us get back over the midpoint before I’d get interested in this stock once again, veloura actually popped on Friday. So there’s the Pressure Zone. We bounced off the Flypaper channel. You want to see investors coming back and buying the dips, and they certainly did that on Friday. And so we actually ended Friday on a daily buy signal for this stock.

Now, the elephant in the room when it comes to the Canadian energy sector is Canadian natural resources. And this is another stock currently treading water. You can see a Pressure Zone started to form. This is where we were looking for buyers to come in and buy the stock. They did for a couple of days, but then nothing happened. When we look at the moving averages, you can see the 50 day moving average is currently acting as support. We’re still projecting sideways action at the moment. And you can see we are trading above the Flypaper channel, so that is bullish. It’s just not trending anywhere at the moment. You can see we’re coming into Monday’s trading action. We’re technically on a sell signal. Looking for a close on Monday above $105.13. I really want to see it start trading above 106.25. You can see that since the middle of March, most of the trading activity is between these two price targets and the midpoint is 106.25. And we’re still trading below it. So I’d really like to see a close above the 106.25 level now moving from the energy sector to industrials. And we’ll start off looking at the industrial index itself.

You can see on the weekly chart we have an early warning signal up here. We’re up at the top of the Panic Zones. We’re looking for low risk buying opportunities off the bottom of the Panic Zones where a Pressure Zone has formed. Any new buy signals that show up up here are high risk buy signals. This market is very overbought. It is currently on a weekly sell signal, but has been trading in the channel for the last couple of weeks. In the channel is neutral, so we’re on a sell signal but it is currently neutral. Things would change this coming Friday if this index were to close above 460.53. Now, again, looking at weekly chart, you can see that for the past few months we’ve moved up to the 468 75 level, down to the 437.50 level. It’s going to be key that we hold that level. If we look at a daily chart of the Flypaper channel, you can see that that level took us right down to the bottom of the Flypaper channel. So we are continuing to make lower highs here. We made a lower low. Now we’re going to have to see if that holds or not.

Looking at a daily chart of this index, we’re currently coming into the week on a daily sell signal, and that would change if we started closing above 454.28. Now, looking at the industrial stocks listed on the Bullboards we’ve got, we currently cover four of the six once again, so we don’t cover every stock out there. Some of the stocks that show up on the bullboards are too small for us or they haven’t been around long enough for us to provide technical analysis on that often changes over time, and a lot of these stocks move from the venture exchange to the TSX when they have become big enough and have been trading long enough. So starting off with the big winner of this presentation, and that’s Bombardier. Looking at daily Flypaper channel chart of Bombardier. What we’re looking for is for a stock to get caught in the Flypaper channel. That’s usually what happens if things are fundamentally changing. For a stock, it’ll start to break away from the Flypaper channel, and then the Flypaper channel will act as support in which investors come in and buy the dip. And that’s exactly what happened back in April, and the market bought the dip, and it started to head up.

And we’ve had a huge rally over the past month, and things would change coming into this week if the stock were to close below $76.27. And if that doesn’t happen, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. You can see the stock reversed on Thursday. So Thursday was an inside day. Friday was an inside day. So two inside days in a row. That is a stock just looking for new information. The pros are certainly in control at the moment. They don’t look like they’re interested in giving up control. When we look at a weekly price target chart, here’s the next two targets. We’re looking at 93.75 and then 106.25. And, of course, we can expect some psychological resistance at the $100 level, but if it can break through that, then 106.25 would be our next target. Then looking at Extro, this stock has been broken for quite a while. You can see it peaked last back at the start of 2023, and it has been heading lower ever since. You can see the last time we generated a weekly sell signal in April of 2023, and we’ve been on a weekly sell signal ever since.

The first sign that long term money is coming back in. This stock is going to be a weekly close. That is Friday at 04:00 p.m. above $0.81. Now, when we look at daily charts, you can see it’s the 50 day moving average holding us in check at the moment. And if we can start breaking out above that, you’ve got the 100 and the 200 day as possible targets. Again, we’re looking at a daily chart here, and you can see all the opportunities that have been missed. You can see opportunity, opportunity, opportunity, opportunity. The market just doesn’t want this stock at the moment. And right now, we’re treading in the channel. We’re currently on a daily buy signal. That would change with a close below $0.69. Now, I really wouldn’t want to be trading this stock. It’s obvious that long term investors aren’t interested in the moment, and it’s a lot easier to make money on the long side when you’ve got long term investors helping to support the stock. And so I’d really be looking for a weekly buy signal before trying to trade it on a daily basis. Now, the only positive thing I can say about this stock right now, besides it’s on a daily buy signal, is the fact that we recently put in a higher low.

So match that with a higher high and then you might have something starting. But right now, the only positive thing really is that we just put in a higher low. Then looking at Xtract, again this is a very broken stock. It’s clustering around $0.49. If we take out the recent low from a couple of weeks ago, then 39 and 29 come into play. The pros aren’t interested in taking control at the moment. We did have a bullish reversal signal a couple of weeks ago, but that hasn’t really amounted to very much, not a lot of follow through. To the upside side. We’re still trading and closing below the lower channel line. Things would change this coming Friday on a long term basis if we were to close above $0.60. Looking at a daily chart, again, a lot of lost opportunities here. We’ve got a nice open gap there. We’ve traded into the open gap several times. The pros are currently in control, but you’d think the gap would have been filled by now, but it hasn’t. So the first target is the top of that open gap, and just above that is $0.59. If we can ever take that out, then $0.68 would be our next target.

Above that. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re currently on a buy signal that would change with a close below $0.48. Again, not really interested in chasing this stock at the present time. I would really look for a move above the recent high here before I’d start chasing this stock. Next up, we’re looking at Air Canada. And Air Canada peaked a little over a year ago and fell sharply into the fall, recovered a little bit over the past couple of months, but ended Friday on a new weekly sell signal. You can see that we’ve been in a price channel trading up to the 2031 level and then down to 17.19. That’s contained most of the trading action for the past six months. I’d be looking for a breakout of that range, or a breakdown below 17.19. You can see we’re projecting lower prices here, and so really not a lot of enthusiasm for Air Canada at the moment. Looking at a daily chart here, we would get a new daily buy signal on Monday with a close above $18.85. Now, when it comes to industrials, the elephant in the room right now is Canadian National Railways.

That is the biggest cap stock in this sector. Looking at a weekly chart, you can see that we’re coming off the top of the Panic Zones. We’re on a weekly sell signal right now. We’ve spent the last three weeks closing in the channel, so that is neutral. Things would change this coming Friday with a close above $176.55. The pros are slowly giving up control on this stock on a weekly basis. You can see most of the price action for the past six months has been contained within the 168 75 up to 181.25. And we’re currently trading just below the midpoint so that is a bearish sign for the stock. Looking at a daily chart, we’ve traded up to 175 several times over the past couple of weeks, but have not been able to trade above it. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re currently on a daily buy signal that would change on Monday with a close below $171.64. Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation. Not a pretty bunch of charts there. Bombardier certainly outperforming the rest of the market at the moment. When you look at the energy sector, the market certainly doesn’t hate it at the moment, but isn’t that interested in it either.

And maybe that will only change if crude oil prices start to move up from here. We’ll just have to keep an eye on that. There’s certainly not a lot of enthusiasm in the energy sector right now. Hey, if you’re not golfing and you’re not watching the market today, why don’t you consider donating blood? It’s one of the easiest things you can do to help contribute to society and contribute to your local community. I’m up to my 60th donation. If you start donating blood, we certainly have a blood donors rewards program on our website that could earn you even a free lifetime membership. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, May 27, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this Morning’s Market Outlook for Friday, May 24, 2024. Well, it’s early on, and in the pre market we do have stock index futures trading above fair value. Commodities are mixed. We’ve got crude oil lower, while gold is slightly higher on Friday morning. Now, it is a Friday and we are coming into a long weekend, which usually has a bullish bias. Obviously, it did not have that yesterday, but today should be a fairly quiet day. A lot of traders will be have already left the building or will be leaving early this afternoon to get away for the long weekend. And so I expect volumes to be rather light on Friday. Now, speaking of light volumes, the Canadian market will be open on Monday while the us market is closed. It’s going to be very light trading on Monday. We’re going to take the day off. If for some reason there’s a global event and the TSX is either up or down over 200 points, we will come back and do charts on Monday night. Otherwise, as a Canadian investor, I would ignore anything that happens in the Canadian market on Monday.

Starting off looking at the VIX, the VIX popped yesterday, traded up to the upper chain line, but did not close above it on Friday. We’re looking for a close above 13.20 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX. That, of course, would be negative for stocks. Now, we were recently celebrating Dow 40,000. That apparently has come, come and gone for the time being. We’re down nearly 1000 points from the high, and it was a very big down day for the Dow on Thursday. And coming into yesterday’s trading action, we already had one early warning signal on the Panic Zone chart. Yesterday. We got another and we came right down to the previous price target. There’s a nice open gap down here that needs to be filled at some point. It doesn’t have to be filled, but I’m sure the traders want to come down and fill it. They won’t be doing that on Friday, but they may do that in the not so distant future. Now, the reason the Dow was so wonky yesterday was because of Boeing. Boeing traded up to the Flypaper channel and reversed. I didn’t know or anticipate it was going to come down this quickly.

But here we are heading back down to retest the previous lows, and that could happen over the next week. There’s Boeing trading up to the first price target of 187.50. And then yesterday came right back down to the previous price target, down at 171.88. We took a run down towards 156.25 back in April, but people came in and bought it down above that level. So that recent low could be our next price target if we start trading below 171.88. What else didn’t work on the Dow? Well, the Dow stocks across the board were down yesterday. Intel was the next biggest loser. Back on a sell signal. We talked about the fact that this stock was probably going to walk itself into a buy signal, and then we had the bottom of the open gap here has acted as resistance as that’s what gaps often do. Speaking of losers, McDonald’s was next up on the list of losers yesterday. New low for McDonald’s for this move. And then we talked about the Dow Transports being possibly the canary in the coal mine. It kept going lower yesterday and was a big down day for upS, joining FedEx and old Dominion freight, making new lows on Thursday.

Taking a look at the Dow Utilities, they’re also back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. So you got the Dow, the Transports, Utilities, all on sell signals right now. Canadian Utilities traded below the lower channel line but did not close below it. So technically we are still on a buy signal here. The Canadian market, the TSX, is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Now, yesterday morning I said if you were looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, it was on a very soft sell signal. You might want to wait for the next close below the lower channel line. Well, if you took that advice, there’s the next close below the lower channel line. So sorry about that. Looking at Nvidia, it was the stock everybody was watching yesterday, and maybe last year it would have propped the market up. But that’s not what happened yesterday. So huge, big update for Nvidia. If you had an order in around $1,000, 999, 998, it got filled at the open up there at 1020.28. And when I say gets filled up there, your order will get executed after the open. But not sure exactly what price is going to be, but it’s going to be around 1020.

Taking a look at the Semiconductors themselves, they made a new high yesterday before pulling back. We saw some sell signals in the semiconductor sector on Thursday, even though Nvidia was continuing to move higher, the S&P 500 traded back in the channel yesterday. On Friday, we’re looking for a close below $523.98 on the S&P 500. The big winner after Nvidia was international paper, which was up nearly 5% on the day. So that trend continues. What didn’t work well, Live Nation was a big loser yesterday, and here’s a company I wouldn’t miss if it went out of business tomorrow. And then we’ve got Caesar Entertainment continuing its downtrend, making a new low for this move. And then, speaking of semiconductors on semiconductor is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, we put in a new high yesterday before reversing. So an outside reversal day for the Nasdaq 100. We’re still trading above the upper channel line, so not concerned about a possible sell signal on Friday. PDD holdings was the big winner yesterday, while global foundries was the big loser. Back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close.

Now, if we go back and look at the Nasdaq 100 itself, it was down just a little under half a percent. When we look at the equal weighted Nasdaq 100, it was down a little over 1%. So twice the losses for the Equal Weighted ETF, a close below $121.61 on Friday would give us a sell signal there. And then when we look at the Next Generation Nasdaq 100 stocks, they were down a little over one and a half percent. So you can see the smaller the stock, the bigger the loss yesterday. So that ETF is back on a sell signal. Then, looking at the venture exchange, it was down yesterday, pretty close to what the Next Generation Nasdaq stock was, just a little more in percentage terms. And we’re still on a buy signal here. But we saw a similar selling in Canada as we did in the US. Now, looking at what commodity traders were doing on Thursday, we’ve got Crude Oil on its second day of a sell signal. Natural Gas put in a new high yesterday, ran up to the 200 day moving average, and then pulled back. Did not close below the previous day’s low.

Last time I checked, it was unchanged in the pre market this morning. Looking at Canadian Energy stocks, we’re still on a buy signal here. Us stocks second day of a sell signal for the energy sector. Copper is sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal on Friday. We’ve got gold back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Silver coming into the channel on Thursday. A close below $29.53 would give us a new sell signal for Silver on Friday. Looking at the stocks themselves, Copper stocks second day of a sell signal there. US Gold stocks back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Joining Canadian Gold stocks also on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Silver stocks. The Silver Miners ETF still on a buy signal. That would change on Friday with a close below $33.55. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation. Taking a look at a couple of the most actives from the TSX on Thursday. Enbridge still on a sell signal, no change there. Suncor putting in a new high before pulling back. Still on a buy signal. No change for Cenovus. Just treading water here. I guess they’re waiting for a catalyst of some sort.

Manulife, treading water up here at our price target. So we’re trading right around $36 right now. Obviously investors feel fairly comfortable in that area. And then unfortunately, the TD Bank rolled over yesterday. So still on a sell signal, no change in trend for the TD Bank. Now, walking through the New York most actives, we’ve already covered some of them, but there’s Advanced Micro Devices having an outside reversal day yesterday. Looking for a close on Friday below $158.05. We closed $160.43 yesterday. So just a couple of dollars away from a sell signal. Nio back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Tesla trading right down to the lower channel line yesterday, looking for a close on Friday below $173.45. Then we’ve got Sofi. Last week, Sofi generated a buy signal. I said I wouldn’t take it, I wouldn’t chase it, looking for a breakout above these previous highs. So here we are. Sofi, second day of a sell signal this week. Then looking at Apple. Apple came right down to the lower channel line. So a close on Friday below $186.87 would give us a new sell signal for Apple. We’ve had several opportunities to lock in profits on the way up here.

So it’s been a very profitable trade, trading Apple over the last month. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Again, we’re coming into a long weekend. Historically, that has a bullish bias to it. Historically. It’s also usually a fairly quiet day as a lot of people are heading off for the us long weekend. Again, Canadian markets will be open on Monday. We don’t really care. There’s going to be very thin trading, no guidance from the futures contracts out of the US, and certainly no live commodity trading. There will be electronic trading, but not live trading. So that is a big difference. And as a Canadian investor, I just basically don’t even look to see what happens on Monday. If, as I mentioned earlier, for some reason there’s a global event and there’s a disturbance in the force on Monday, we will come in on Monday night and print Canadian charts. But otherwise, you should do what we’re doing. Take the day off and don’t take a look at the Canadian market. Okay, have a great day. Have a great weekend. And next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 24, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value while commodities are mixed. Crude oil is up slightly while gold is down a little over $20 in the pre market on Thursday morning. Now, we are coming up to a three day long weekend that usually has a bullish bias to it. But to get to the long weekend, we have to make it through some economic numbers, including jobless claims coming out at 8:30 this morning. Well, yesterday was all about Nvidia, and Nvidia pulled back slightly yesterday going into earnings, but it’s popping in the pre market this morning, currently trading slightly over $1,000. So congratulations to anyone who is long Nvidia. Now, while Nvidia had a small pullback yesterday, it was the Semiconductors that were the big winners on Wednesday. And you can see that particular ETF making a new high for this move. Now, another stock that’s moving in the premarket this morning is Super Micro. It is on a buy signal. It has already been up and over $1,000 back in March and February and March.

And so it wouldn’t be too surprising if we took another run at those recent highs. Looking at Tesla, we talked about why I wasn’t excited about the new Tesla buy signal yesterday. Running into the moving average, running into resistance, running into the flypaper channel that hasn’t been undone yet. Yesterday was a small pullback, an inside day for Nvidia. So nothing conclusive just yet. Looking at the Dow transports, we’ve been talking about the Dow hitting 40,000, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the TSX, all making new highs. The Dow Transports has not made a high since back in February. We put in a lower high here in March, and now in May we’ve put, put in another lower high. So transport is one of the underpinnings of the us economy is not doing well at the moment. Some of the losers in this sector are FedEx, Old Dominion Freight and JB Hunt. Are all big losers at the moment. There is one big winner, Kirby, making a new high on Wednesday. Now, what didn’t work on Wednesday? Well, we had a large number of sell signals yesterday. Some of the notable ones in the US market, Consumer Discretionary.

And within that you’ve got Retail both back on sell signals. We had oil rollover yesterday, so we’re back on a sell signal for the USO. That put downward pressure on US Energy stocks. They’re back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, in percentage terms, the biggest loser yesterday was the Copper Miners, and they are back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Then, after Copper Miners, the next big loser was the iShares Global Base Metal ETF, still on a buy signal. We’ve also got the GDX trading down to the lower channel line yesterday, so close below yesterday’s low would give us a sell signal on Thursday. Then we’re looking at us Oil and Gas Equipment makers. They’re back on a sell signal. Then we had Silver Miners down on the day, but not enough to give us a sell signal. Then we had the iShares Material ETF down, and then we had the iShares Global Gold ETF down on the day. Not enough to give us a sell signal just yet. The price of Copper came down hard yesterday. A closed below 4.77 would give us a sell signal on Thursday. Gold traded down into the channel yesterday, looking for a close below $2,386.40 on Thursday to give us a sell signal.

And Silver, while it was down on the day, did not close below the previous day’s low and still well above a sell signal. So the silver is holding up much better than copper and gold at the moment. Looking at the major indices, starting off with the VIX, the VIX was up yesterday. Not enough to change things that would happen on Thursday if the VIX were to close above 13.27. We saw the Dow pull back close in the channel yesterday. The big winner on the Dow was Johnson and Johnson, while the big loser was actually dow itself. And then looking at the S&P 500, small pullback there yesterday. The big winner was first solar, followed by Moderna, which was a big winner on several indices yesterday.

What didn’t work?

Well, the target was the big loser, followed by Lululemon, and then Freeport. Back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, very small pullback there yesterday, Moderna was a big winner, and then we’ve got analog devices up over 10% on the day.

What didn’t work?

Well, Sirius was the big loser, making a new low for this move, followed by PayPal already on a sell signal, then moving over to the canadian market. We’ve technically got the ishares for the TSX 60 on a sell signal, but just very, very slightly. So if you wanted to hold on for another day to see if we get a confirming close below the lower channel line, you could certainly do that. Shopify was the big winner in percentage terms on the TSX 60 followed by Circle K already on a buy signal so no change in trend there. The biggest loser on the TSX 60 was first quantum and then followed by CAE. Caes had a wild couple of days. Big reversal off a new low, closing back up at the high of the day, but still there’s a big gap to make up above where we closed on Wednesday. Looking at the TSX Composite, not as hard hit as the TSX 60 itself. Bombardier was the big winner yesterday, followed by Ballard Power.

What didn’t work?

Mining stocks in general. Im gold was the biggest loser back on a sell signal. Weve got Ivanhoe back on a sell signal and then HUD Bay still on a buy signal here. That would change on Thursday with a close below $12.59. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. The VIX is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. Nvidia just looking over my shoulder, I see Nvidia’s trading at $1,007 right now. At the same time I see gold down $26. So you know, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the mining sector roll over up here. It’s had a great run. That run looks like it’s coming to an end, so just keep an eye on your stocks. Is the transport sector, is that the canary in the coal mine we need to be watching? Only time will tell, but we are coming into a long weekend, which is usually bullish. And then next week it’s end of the month. That is also usually bullish. So we may not see any major selling between now and the end of the month. Enjoy the rest of your day folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, May 23, 2024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out in the pre market. After the market opens, we’ve got existing home sales and energy inventories that could certainly change the direction of the market after it opens. Now today is all about Nvidia. Nvidia’s earnings come out after hours today. The stock stock is on a buy signal. Made a new closing high for this move on Tuesday, but has not taken out the previous highs. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $904.86. Of course we’re expecting some volatility after the earnings come out. After the market closes, it’s still a very bullish stock. They bought the last dip and I’m sure they’re going to buy the next dip. Looking up from here, we’re still trying to get to $1,000. If we break through that, then $1125 would be our next target on our weekly charts. Now Tesla had a big up move on Tuesday and I’m not sure I would chase it here. We ran up to our next price target and stopped.

Ran up to the hundred day moving average and ran up into the Flypaper channel. So I really want to see more positive price action from Tesla before I would jump in. I think yesterday’s move was an overreaction, probably mostly short covering, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Now the VIX made a new low for this move yesterday. Looking for close on Wednesday above 13.41 to give us a buy signal. If we get a buy signal in the Vix we may also get buy signals in the Vix ETF’s. So you’re looking at the VXX or the HUV as possible opportunities if the VIX starts to move up at some point. Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we made a new high yesterday but unfortunately didn’t hit our price target of 34.38. We got as high as 34.26 and then looking at the two X ETF we’re trying to get to 23.05 got as high as 22.73. So in both cases we’re getting close. So far in the pre market both gold and crude oil are down slightly. So I’m not sure if the TSX is going to be able to hit those targets on Wednesday.

Looking at the Dow Diamonds small gain there yesterday. New closing high for the S&P 500 ETF, you can see the equal weighted ETF was actually down on the day, so it’s just a handful of stocks propping the S&P 500 up yesterday. That was also true for the Nasdaq 100, which made a new closing high. But the equal weighted actually closed slightly lower on the day. And the next generation Nasdaq 100 stocks also closed lower on the day. We’re looking at Semiconductors here. They also closed slightly lower on the day. Now, what worked, what didn’t work in the us market yesterday? Well, it was Utilities. Consumer Staples and Financials were the big winners, while Energy and Industrials were the losers. So these are defensive sectors. We’ve got utilities making a new high. Yesterday we had consumer staples having an inside day. No change in trend there and no change in trend for financials. What didn’t work? Well, we saw a small pullback for the Energy sector and a small pullback for Industrials. Looking at the Canadian market, it was Materials, Energies and Utilities were the winners. Healthcare was the big loser yesterday.

Looking at Materials, making a new high for this move on Tuesday. Then we’ve got the Energy sector back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at Utilities, there’s a new high for Utilities. So of course that’s a very defensive play to keep chasing utility stocks. What didn’t work was healthcare. And of course that probably has something to do with a Marijuana stock. Take a look at the most actives from Tuesday’s trading action on the TSX. New high for Suncor on Tuesday. No joy for Enbridge, still on a sell signal here. Then we had a small pullback for Manulife, didn’t close below the previous day’s low. Then looking at Cenovus, we’re looking for a close on Wednesday above $28.12. Then we had a small pullback for the Royal bank yesterday and reversal for new gold after making a new high. Then looking at Pembina inside day there yesterday, no change in trend. Then looking at Telus. Telus is struggling here. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $22.24. We ran up to our next price target of 22.66. So far that is holding us in check. And yes, the pros are in control, but they don’t look like they’re that enthusiastic at the moment.

Then looking at TC Energy, new high for this move. For TC Energy, new high for Barrick for this move. And then we’ve got Great West Life still on a buy signal here, closing above the upper channel line. We’ve got a wall of resistance up here here at 43.75 we took a run at that a couple of weeks ago and failed and hopefully we can take another run at that. If we can take out 43.75, then 44.53 would be our next target. Looking at the US most actives, we talked about Tesla earlier. Then we’ve got Nio trading in the channel looking for a close on Wednesday below $5.15 peloton rolled over yesterday. Back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at AMC. We’re just trading in the channel right now. A close below $4.05 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. And just a reminder, as soon as you get an order filled, then go back into your brokerage account and place your sell orders at your profit targets. Get them in right away. You have no idea what’s going to happen next and you don’t want to be sitting in front of the computer screen all day when volatility could start to expand.

The chinese car maker Xpeng had a huge update yesterday and then settled down just above the upper channel line there. So it is back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then Amazon’s back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. And we’ve got GameStop trading below the lower channel line for the last three days. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $21.94. Then we’re looking at JDCom trading in the channel. A close below $32.68 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal. We had a pullback yesterday from marathon. No change in trend. New closing high for Apple yesterday, getting very close to our next price target of 193.75. Then looking at Intel. Intel’s on a buy signal here, but having trouble at the bottom of the open gap. Then looking at Ford, Ford still on a sell signal here. No change in trend. Looking for a close above $12.43 on Wednesday. That would give us a buy signal. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far it’s fairly quiet out there. Expect volatility to expand after hours today. We might have to sit and wait for Nvidia’s earnings to come out before the market finds a new direction.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Hello, everyone, it’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. And welcome to Tuesday morning for our canadian subscribers. Welcome back. Hope you had a wonderful long weekend in the pre market this morning. Things are fairly quiet. We’re not expecting any economic numbers coming out this morning, and the market might actually be on pause waiting for Nvidia’s earnings to come out on Wednesday. From Tuesday’s trading action, the VIX closed slightly higher, but no major change for the VIX. Things would change on Tuesday. If the VIX were to close above 13.60. That would certainly be an indication that the market is going from being bullish to bearish. The market is still celebrating Dow 40,000, but that may be over soon. We did close below that level yesterday. So a bearish reversal day for the Dow up at our next price target here. And we got a new early warning signal on the panic zone chart. So this might be the short term top for the market. We’ll just have to wait and see if we get more downward pressure this week. Now, we’re certainly not on any new sell signals here for the major indices. There’s the Dow diamonds up at our next price target.

So you got to lock in some profits.

What worked on the Dow on Monday?

Well, Caterpillar was the big winner, followed by Microsoft and then Boeing.

What didn’t work on Monday?

JPMorgan was the big loser, generating a new daily sell signal as of yesterday’s close, down 4.5% on the day. Then looking at Johnson and Johnson, we pulled back into the channel yesterday. A close below $150.32 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. And already on a sell signal, Cisco closed down near the bottom of the range yesterday. Huge move down yesterday. We did run up last Thursday and tag our next price target. So if you had an order in up there at $50, it got filled. Otherwise, we came down sharply yesterday. Now we’re looking to see if we can hold the 46 88 level. Then looking at the S&P 500, SPY hit our next price target yesterday. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits. What worked on the S&P 500 yesterday? Well, the cruise lines were big winners, with Norwegian and Carnival both moving sharply higher on Monday. And then we had Moderna. Moderna was a big winner on several indices yesterday.

What didn’t work?

Big reversal for Chubb, closing below the previous day’s low. No joy for West Pharmaceuticals making a new low for this move, and no joy for the discount retailers. Both. Dollar Tree, which made a new low yesterday. And then we’ve got Dollar General back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Looking at the triple qs, we had several days to take money off the table here. So congratulations. You got to lock in some profits. New high for applied materials. And then we saw strength from Marvell and then KLA also making a new high for this move.

What didn’t work?

Well, we saw Doordash. Big down day yesterday. Still on a sell signal. No joy for Doordash. Lululemon made a new low for this move on Monday. And then looking at the Canadian market from Friday’s trading action, we’re trying to get to 34.38. That’s not working out very well. Now, we are trading slightly lower in the pre market this morning, according to Bloomberg’s futures. So we’re not starting off on the right foot on Tuesday morning for the canadian market on Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below $33.69 to give us a new sell signal for the iShares for the TSX 60. Couple of charts from Friday’s trading action. We’ve got Manulife making a new high on Friday. We’ve got it. Enbridge having an inside day, still on a sell signal. No change there. No change for Suncor, still on a buy signal. While Cenovus is still on a sell signal. Now TC Energy ran up, hit our next price target. So congratulations. You got to lock in profits up at that level. Moving on to the world of cryptocurrencies. Big update yesterday for bitcoin and Ethereum. So rumors about an Ethereum ETF. You can see we generated a buy signal at Friday’s close.

You came in on Monday, took that buy signal, you had a pretty good day then. Looking at a couple of the crypto stocks that were trading yesterday, we’ve got Coinbase back on a buy signal. Joining Marathon already on a buy signal. Joining Microstrategy already on a buy signal. So it looks like the market likes microstrategy the best at the moment. Let’s finish off looking at the major commodity ETF starting in the energy sector. We’ve got USO on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. Small pullback on Monday. And it looks like we’re going to have a small pullback at the open on Tuesday morning. Similar situation for Gasoline. Natural Gas, on the other hand, continued to move higher on Friday. Looking at the metals, we’ve got the GLD making a new closing high, hitting the 225 level. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits there. If we can continue higher than 231.25 would be our next target. A new high for this move for Palladium on Monday and then unfortunately for Platinum we peaked on Friday and pulled back on Monday. And yes we closed below the previous day’s lows so that looks like a top for Palladium.

We’ll just have to wait and see. And then Silver made a new high for this move and did not hit 29.69 yesterday we got as high as 29.56. If we can take out 29.69 then 31.25 would be our next target to the upside. Okay folks, that is all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. Have a great Tuesday. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, things are very quiet. There’s no economic numbers coming out this morning. We currently have stock index futures just slightly above fair value. We do have gold continuing to move higher on Monday morning. Now, I think I can make this presentation fairly brief this morning. Starting off looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, we’re going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 16.59 this coming Friday. Then, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, we’re going to remain short term bullish on Monday as long as the VIX does not close above 13.80 at 04:00 p.m. This afternoon. Now, the Dow hit 40,000 last week, so a reason to celebrate. Previously, of course, we saw the S&P 500 break through 5000 and the SPY broke through 500. Looking at the Dow Diamonds, our next price target is $406.25 on the weekly charts for the SPY, our next target is $546.88. Looking at the Nasdaq 100 triple Qs, we’re looking at our next target of $468.75. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, our next target is $34.38 on both the daily and the weekly charts.

Now, looking at commodities, crude oil reversed and closed at the previous week’s high, up a little over a little under two and a quarter percent for the week. Looking at a daily chart of crude oil, we ended Friday on a buy signal. So that could be the start of something. We’ll just have to wait and see. Natural gas, on the other hand, was up over 12%. Looking at our daily right side chart, you can see when the uptrend started, and we actually broke through the midterm tether line, and we’re back on a buy signal on a midterm basis. We also broke out above our next price target of 2.73 and closed above the high from back here a couple of months ago. So that could be a bullish sign as well. That 3.13 could be our next price target for natural gas. Looking at the price of gold, it was up over $42 last week. It’s up the $20 and change in the pre market this morning. So it looks like we’re heading towards $2,500. The price of silver was up nearly 10% on the weekend, heading towards 32.81. We closed above $30, so that is no longer psychological resistance.

Now, what worked and what didn’t work last week? Well, two things I can point out. First of all, the winners were all what would be considered fringe sectors of the market, but sectors that we watch closely. And there were only a couple of losers. So not much negativity last week at all. Now, the big winner from the sectors that we follow closely was the Copper Miners, followed by Silver miners, followed by the TSX Global Base Metal index, followed by US Marijuana stocks, which were up nearly 5% on the week, followed by Gold Miners, which were up a little over 4.5%. Then followed by Canadian Marijuana stocks, up over 4%. And then the first, what would be considered a mainstream sector, Semiconductors were up nearly 4% on the weekend. Now, what didn’t work? Well, this list is incredibly small, and no major damage was done to the Home Builders or to the Transportation sector. Still on a sell signal. No change there. And then Industrials were down just over a quarter of a percent, so you hardly notice it on the chart. So last week was a very bullish week for the overall stock market. Now, what worked for the major indices?

Well, for the TSX 60, the biggest winner was First Quantum. For the TSX composite, it was NovaGold. For the Dow 30, Walmart was the big winner last week. That’s a huge move up for Walmart. And then the best performing stock on both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 was Moderna, which was up 13 and a little over 13.25%. What was the second best performer on the S&P 500 was Insulet, which was up nearly 13% and is back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday’s close. Okay, that’s all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. Last week was a very bullish week. The Dow closed over 40,000. So, so far, coming into this week, we’re going to remain short term and long term bullish on the market. Now, canadian markets are closed today. Us markets will be closed next Monday. So everybody gets a day off. Enjoy your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, May 20, 2024

Hello, everyone, it’s Stephen Whiteside here from theUpTrend.com. And in this weekend’s presentation, we’re going to take a look at the energy stocks listed on the Stockhouse . Now, the reason I’m doing this presentation today is it looks like we may be setting up for some new short term opportunities in the Energy Sector. Now, the TSX closed at a new all time high on Friday, and we’re coming up to our next mathematical price target of 22,500. Now, the Venture Exchange has been on quite a run since the fall lows, and we are looking at a weekly chart of the venture exchange. Now, we are coming up to resistance. We are coming up into the Flypaper Channel. The venture exchange has been in a bear market since early 2022. Is that about to change? Well, we are coming up to our mathematical price target of 625. You can see that back in early 2023, we made a high, then a lower high, another lower high, and then we finally broke down. So we could be coming up to a wall of resistance or a nice wall of opportunity. If we can get through 625 on a weekly basis, then the 2023 high would be our next price target.

Looking at the Energy sector itself, about six weeks ago, we generated an early warning signal up at the top of the screen, and we’ve been meandering ever since. We have certainly generated a lot of daily short term sell signals, but not a lot of weekly sell signals in the Energy Sector. Looking at a daily chart of the TSX Energy index, you can see we’re just treading water here. We traded up to the upper channel line on Friday, still need a higher close on Tuesday to give us a new daily buy signal for the Energy Sector itself. Now, one of the reasons that I’ve come back to focus on the Energy Sector is that crude oil ended Friday on a daily buy signal. So we haven’t been on a buy signal for a month or so. And crude oil is now joining natural gas, already on a daily buy signal, up another 3.8% on Friday. So both of those moving higher could help bring money back into the Canadian Energy Sector. Now, looking at the Stockhouse Bullboards, we currently provide coverage for four out of the six stocks on this list, starting off with BTE.TO Baytex Energy. And we’ll be looking at weekly and daily charts through the rest of the presentation.

Baytek looking pretty weak right now, but it actually recovered going into the close. So it closed just above the lower channel line. We needed to close below 4.68, and we actually closed at 4.75. So just above the lower channel line. So we’re still on a weekly buy signal here. During the week, we drove all the way down to our next price target, which was $4.49. We got as low as $4.50 before completely reversing and coming back to the $4.69 level. So we’re coming into Tuesday’s trading action. Remember, Monday, the markets are closed in Canada. We need to close above $4.93 on Tuesday. Now, of course, if that doesn’t happen on Tuesday, that upper channel is going to continue to move lower daily. Then, looking at a weekly chart of TVE.TO Tamarack Valley Energy, we’ve traded down to the lower channel line for the last three weeks, but we’re still on a buy signal here. We need to close on Friday. Below 3.60, we closed at 3.69, and so we’re still on a weekly buy signal. Looking at the daily Flypaper Channel chart for Tamarack, you can see that we’re still holding the Flypaper Channel. So the bulls are still in control here.

They’ve just taken a break for the last couple of weeks and now we’re looking to see if they want to add to their positions. The first sign of that happening would be a close on Tuesday above $3.78. Then looking at ATH.TO Athabasca Oil , third week of a weekly sell signal here, we had an inside week this week and we were up just a little over half a percent on the weekend. Again, looking at the daily Flypaper Channel chart, we’re still holding the channel, so the bulls are still in control. If we look at the price action since the middle of February, we’ve been in a range moving up to 547, trading slightly above it and down to $4.69, trading slightly below it. So about 98% of all the trading activity since the middle of February has been between this range. Now, notice right now, the middle of that range is acting as resistance. It’d be a nice tell if we could get up and over the 5.08 level once again, and that should take us back up to at least the 5.47 level. We are coming into Tuesday’s trading action on a buy signal that would change on Tuesday with a close below $4.80. Then, looking at VLE.TO Valeura Energy, looking at a weekly chart here, you can see the early warning signal on the Panic Zone chart.

And then we’ve come down. We can see that we’ve traded in the channel this week. We’ve come down to the lower channel line, but did not close below it. We needed to close below 4.74. We closed at 4.92. So no sell signal there on the daily Flypaper Channel chart. You can see we just came down to the top of the Flypaper Channel. So the bulls are still in control. Looking at a daily chart, things would change on Tuesday with a close above $5.38. Now, whether you’re looking at the daily or weekly panic zone charts, they’re all projecting lower prices for most of the stocks in the Energy Sector. And it’s certainly true. We’re projecting a lower price here. There’s an open gap at the top from back here. That could certainly be a target than the previous low here. That could certainly be a legitimate target. So, yeah, we’re projecting lower prices here, but projections don’t know what they don’t know. And when new things come along, like a buy signal in crude oil on Friday, that can certainly change the outcome of a projection, and the stock market can change its mind at any time.

Projections are interesting. They give you realistic expectations of what could happen and when it could happen. But then again, it doesn’t know what it doesn’t know. And that’s one of the most important lessons of the stock market, is we don’t know what we don’t know yet. Let’s finish off looking at the elephant in the room when it comes to the Canadian Energy Sector, and that is CNQ.TO Canadian Natural Resources. Looking at the weekly panic zone chart, you can see we are projecting lower prices here. But right now we’re still up at the top of the Panic Zones. We’ve had a couple early warning signals go off, but not a lot of pullback. Once this stock got over $100, it looks like the market wants to keep it up there to get a new weekly sell signal. We need to close this coming Friday below $100.25. We haven’t even got to the Flypaper Channel yet on the way down. So the market is still loving this stock. The 50 day moving average is holding us in check at the moment. We came down towards the $100 level a couple of weeks ago, did not get there. So money is available at $100 to hold this stock up.

Now, talking about ranges, we’ve got up to 100, 1250, we got down near $100. And so mathematically, the midpoint is 106.25. And you can see that that once we broke down below, it is now acting as resistance. So it’ll be quite a tell if we can start breaking out above 106.25. To generate a new buy signal on Tuesday, we need to close above $105.20. Now, this could be a bullish sign. It hasn’t been confirmed yet, but you know, we put in a higher low on Wednesday. If we could put in a higher high this coming week, that would be very bullish and that would at least get us back up to the previous highs from April. Okay, folks, that is all for this presentation. The main reason that I’m here speaking to you today about the Energy Sector is the fact that Friday we ended the day on a new daily buy signal for crude oil. If that continues this week, that could certainly bring money back into the Canadian Energy Sector. And we’ve certainly been sitting on the sidelines for a while now. Now, I’m always bugging you to donate blood and I hit number six this week.

If you’re a blood donor, please remember we do have a blood donor rewards program on our website. We give discounts. In fact, we’ve given a lot of free memberships away, lifetime memberships, to people who have been donating blood for quite a while. So we like to reward people for doing that. And yeah, I hit number 60 this week. If you really want to rack up your numbers, just decide to donate plasma. You can basically do that every week and really rack up your numbers quickly. Okay, folks, that’s all for this weekend’s presentation. Enjoy the rest of your long weekend. I will be back on Monday morning. The US markets are open on Monday. And then of course, the Canadian markets will be back on Tuesday again. Enjoy your wonderful weekend and we’ll talk to you again soon.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

XEG.TO iShares TSX Energy
BTE.TO Baytex Energy
TVE.TO Tamarack Valley Energy
ATH.TO Athabasca Oil
VLE.TO Valeura Energy
CNQ.TO Canadian Natural Resources

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Sunday, May 19, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com Well, we’re coming into a long weekend in Canada, in the US. We’ll have to wait another week before we get a long weekend, but, yeah, wishing everybody a happy Friday. So far, it’s pretty quiet out there. There’s no major economic numbers coming out this morning. Stock index futures and gold are slightly above fair value, while we’ve got crude oil trading slightly lower this morning. Let’s start off taking a look at some weekly charts I ran off this morning. These are not on the website. The VIX is down slightly for the week. I’m not expecting the VIX to move a lot lower than where we are now. What we are watching for is the VIX to trend higher. So don’t expect the VIX to continue to move lower from here, while the stock market certainly can continue to move higher. Now, looking at the TSX, we’re down slightly on the week. Inside week for the TSX, very quiet trading. Then looking at crude oil, looks like we’re pretty close to an inside week there. Crude oil is up a little over 1% for the week.

We’ve got natural gas up over 8%. And if it closes where it is right now, that would give us a new weekly buy signal for natural gas. Then looking at copper, copper continues to move higher. Some people call it a short squeeze. Doesn’t really matter if you’re long copper or long any of the mining stocks that are benefiting from rising copper prices. We’ve got gold up on the week. It’s up $10.50. It’s up $6 in the pre market this morning. Then looking at the Dow, the Dow is up just under 1% for the week. Now, the Dow hit 40,000 yesterday. So the reason to celebrate, of course, it was 19,000 just a couple of years ago. Looking at the S&P 500, we’re up nearly one and a half percent. We’ve got the Nasdaq up over 2% on the week, and we’ve got semiconductors up over 4% on the week. So all of that is looking bullish. Now let’s get back to some daily charts, starting with the VIX. The VIX is still on a sell signal. That would change on Friday if it were to close above 14.01. Then looking at the Dow making a new high yesterday, we had another day of a lot of bearish reversal signals.

And so we did thrust higher and we closed, in a lot of cases, lower. Than we opened. But we did not take out the previous day’s low. So yeah, we had a little profit taking during the day going into the close, but not enough to disturb the market. Then looking at the SPY new high there again we pulled back closed slightly lower on the day. Looking at the 3X SPY , we are down on the day again we ran up and got really close to 137.50. Got as high as 137.30. So, you know, if you’re dying to take some money off the table of of course you don’t want to completely liquidate a position, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to sell some at the open this morning. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, a new high yesterday, again a pullback going into the close. We’ve had several opportunities here on Wednesday and Thursday to lock in some profits at the 453.13 level. If we keep going from here, then 468.75 would be our next target. And of course the semiconductors were up yesterday and then came down in the close. Now I see the XSD hit its profit target of 237.50. So congratulations.

We didn’t hit our profit target for the SMH just yet. So again, you know, if you want to take some money off the table, you could do that this morning. But again, do not completely liquidate a position. Looking at the Canadian market, the iShares for the TSX 60 had a very quiet day on Thursday, an inside day and its third day of closing on the upper channel line. That is not significant, just a coincidence. But here we are treading water. Looking for a close on Friday below $33.63. We’re trying to get to $34.38. That’s our next profit target. Having trouble doing that. And then looking at the 2X Bull ETF, we’re looking for a close on Friday below $21.98. Looking at the Magnificent Eight, we’ve got a new high for the Magnificent 7 ETF on Thursday. We’re stuck here at 40.63. If we can start breaking out above yesterday’s high, then 42.19 comes into play. Looking at Apple, we hit a new high for this move for Apple on Thursday. We’ve got Amazon back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. If you’re not overly confident in that sell signal, of course you can wait for the next close below the lower channel line.

Certainly a move below the previous day’s low. That would be. Wednesday’s low would be certainly a sign of weakness. Then Alphabet trying to break out above the high from a couple of weeks ago. If we can do that, then 181.25 would be our next target for Alphabet. Looking at Meta, we’re struggling here. Still haven’t really filled that open gap. Looking for a close on Friday below $462.72 to give us a new sell signal. Then we’ve had a new high yesterday for Microsoft. For this particular move, we’re trying to get to 429.69. That is our next profit target. And that’s where we topped out back in March. Looking at Nvidia. Nvidia struggling here. We’re trying to get to $1000. We haven’t taken out the high from March just yet. If we can do that, then $1,000 comes into play. And unfortunately, no joy for Shopify. The stock is holding the low from a couple of days ago on both sides of the border. Let’s see if we can build a base here then. Looking at Tesla, we’re looking for a close on Friday above $178.41. Now, this is rather weird. We’ve had the pros in control since late April, but so far they have not been that interested in buying the stock.

They don’t appear to be that interested in selling it at the moment. The public has been more interested in selling than the pros. So we’re stuck here. Now, we gapped higher and tried to push out above the flypaper channel. That failed, we pulled back. Now we’re trading under the Flypaper channel. So it’s going to take some work to get up and over the Flypaper channel. And the market might want to come down and fill this gap down here first. But yeah, the pros are in control, but we’re not going anywhere now. We’re almost done. This morning I wanted to take a quick look at US traded ETF’s and what’s worked so far in 2024 has been Bitcoin up over 67% and then followed by us Marijuana stocks, currently up over 36%. Then we’ve got Semiconductors up over 32%, then followed by Silver up over 24%. Now, we don’t see any major equity ETF’s at the top of the performance list except Chinese ETF’s. And the Chinese market has been on a tear this year. You know, was the dog last year. And this year this particular ETF is up over 21%. So it certainly isn’t North America ETF’s or european ETF’s that are winning this year.

It is the Chinese market. I don’t like trading the overseas markets because they gap so much. And yeah, they can gap in your favor, they can also gap against you. So I don’t usually follow them or trade them closely, but yeah, the Chinese market is the big winner and this morning they came out and said they’re putting billions into the real estate sector so that sector could continue to be the winner in 2024. Now, oddly enough, looking at US based ETF’s, what’s not working in 2024 is a couple of the ARK ETF’s. The ARK Genomics ETF’s down over 19% and the ARK Innovation ETF is down over 14% year to date. So when it comes to equity, equity ETF’s, those are the big losers in 2024. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far. It looks like it’s going to be a fairly quiet day. For those of you in Canada, enjoy your long weekend. For those of you in the US, I’ll be back on Monday morning and we’ll take a look at how the week finished and where our break points are going to be for the next week.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 17, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are fairly quiet. We do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, housing starts and jobless claims, and they could certainly help change the direction of the market. Now, yesterday everybody had a positive reaction to the CPI numbers and we saw the VIX come down sharply, a big drop for the US dollar. We saw bitcoin get back on a buy signal. Unfortunately, ethereum is not joining at the moment. We saw a big up move for bonds yesterday. So there’s the TLT, there’s the XBB. So of course bond prices rising puts downward pressure on yields. We did see commodities move higher, especially the metals. We had new high for copper. Gold moved up yesterday. And silver had a nice big move up heading towards the highs from back in April. What didn’t work yesterday? Well, retail numbers also came out on Wednesday and we’ve got a pullback here. So it could be a buy the rumor, sell the news type situation. Now, yesterday the major us indices made higher highs.

A new high for the Dow, new high for the S&P 500, new high for the Nasdaq 100. Still having nice up moves yesterday, but not making new highs. We’ve got the Russell 2000 and we’ve got small caps and we’ve got micro capsule all moving up nicely on Wednesday. Now, the chip sector was also up on the day. Looking at the SMH, we were up 3% on Wednesday. So nice big up move there. Taking out the highs from April. Heading towards the highs from early March. Moving on to the canadian market. Not much going on there on Wednesday. The ice here for the TSX 60 were up three cents at the end of the day, again closing at the upper channel line. If something were to happen on Thursday, we need to close below $33.58 to give us a new sell signal. New closing high for the venture exchange. For this move, we had a new closing high for financials. Bank stocks are stuck at resistance and at the top of an open gap. So both of those things are holding the bank stocks in check at the moment. We’ve got a new closing high for gold stock stocks.

Anything mining related probably made a new high yesterday. And then we’ve got utilities making a new high on Wednesday. Looking at the most actives from Wednesday’s trading action on the TSX, we saw Enbridge back in the channel for the second day looking for a close below $50.21. We had Suncor dip into the channel yesterday, a close below 50 311 would give us a new daily sell signal. We’ve got Manulife still up at resistance. No change there. New low for this move for Cenovus, no change in trend. A big pullback for BlackBerry yesterday. It’s one of the meme stocks right now. If you had a bought it back there you would have looked up and there was your price targets. 4.69 5.08 were the first two. Both of those got hit the other day. Now you’re sitting with a partial position just waiting to get kicked out. And on Thursday that would happen with a close below $4.02. Looking at the TD Bank, we’re struggling in the channel here. We’re down slightly yesterday looking for a close on Thursday above $78.24. Caliber Mining dipped down through the channel but then ended the day making a new high for this move.

Then looking at Great West Life, we pulled back into the channel, bouncing off the lower channel line. So a close below $42.18 would give us a sell signal on Thursday. No joy for Sun Life. Still on a sell signal here. New low for Baytex yesterday. No change in trend. And we do have Barrick on a buy signal right now, but it’s certainly not trending higher quickly. Looking to see if we can close above the recent high from late April. Let’s finish off taking a look at the most actives from Wall street. And the list is basically overloaded with meme stocks. Starting off with AMC and then you’ve got plus power, you’ve got GameStop, you’ve got Sunpower pulling back and it certainly ran up, hit a few of its targets on Tuesday. So congratulations to anyone who got orders filled up there. Similar situation for BlackBerry. We’re looking for a close on Thursday below $2.93. Tesla has been in the channel for the past couple of days looking for a close above $178.66 on Thursday to give us a buy signal for Tesla. NIO trading down into the channel, a close below $5.12 would give us a sell signal for Lucid.

We’re looking for a close below $2.66. We did get up and hit the 3.13 level so you got a chance to lock in some profits up there. Then looking at Sofi. Sofi moving down yesterday looking for a close on Thursday below $7.01. And then last up, Apple making a new high for this move. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. It’s still quiet out there ahead of those economic numbers coming out at 8:30. It was quite a positive reaction to the CPI numbers yesterday, and of course that was able to push the US markets higher so we could lock in some more profits. A lot of profit targets were hit on Wednesday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, May 16, 2024