Author: admin

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are currently trading slightly above fair value. Now, today could turn out to be an extremely volatile day. First of all, we’ve got the CPI numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. And then, of course, we’ve got the Fed announcement coming out this afternoon. So it could end up being an extremely volatile day. Yesterday was fairly quiet. The VIX is still on a sell signal here, which is supportive for higher stock prices. It’s hard to be bullish right now because most of the market is not trading higher. So on Wednesday, we’re looking for a close above 13.58 to change things. Now, yesterday I was wrong. When we were looking at Apple in the pre market, it had a bad Monday. It was trading lower in the pre market on Tuesday morning, and we still hadn’t hit our previous high or the $200 level. Well, what do you know? Apple was the big winner yesterday, and it was up over 7%. And it ran right up to our next price target.

We traded through 200. If you had an order in there, it got filled. And if you had an order in at 206.25, it also got filled. So congratulations to anyone who got orders filled up there. You know, we always make decisions based on closing prices, not what’s going on in the pre market. And I always say, you know, in the pre market, it’s the kids. We wait for the adults to show up at 9:30 before we really care about what’s going on in the stock market. Now, that new high in Apple helped move the mags ETF up to a new high. And the Nasdaq 100, the Nasdaq 100 got within just a hair of hitting our next price target. 468.75 is our next target. We got as high as 468.14 on Tuesday, so we may be able to hit that today. Then, looking at the S&P 500, it also made a new close closing high on Tuesday. What didn’t make a new closing high was the equal weighted S&P 500. So Apple had quite an influence on the two major indices, but not the rest of the market, as the equal weighted S&P 500 closed down on the day, trading through the lower channel line once again.

So the equal weighted S&P 500 is not on a buy signal. Neither is the Russell 2000, making a new low for this move. Yesterday, we saw a new low for the small caps and a new low for us. Micro caps on Tuesday. So, yeah, the VIX is still on a sell signal and it’s a bit queasy, you know, trying to remain bullish at this particular time. Then looking at the canadian market, the ishares for the TSX 60 were down yesterday, so we’re getting down close to where we found previous support back in April, down at the 32.81 level. We’ll have to see if that holds. Now, there is a bit. Bit of a discrepancy between the TSX 60 and the rest of the market. The Vanguard Canada ETF, which is a broader based ETF than the TSX 60, holding up much better than the TSX 60 at the. At the present time. And when we look at what mid caps are doing, they’re holding up fairly well. Unfortunately, the micro cap stocks have been falling sharply over the past few days. So micro caps not holding up through this particular time in the market.

Looking at the TSX, most actives from Tuesday’s trading action, starting off with Canadian Natural Resources, we’re trying to hold the $48 level here. 46.88 is our next target to the downside. Then looking at Suncor, still on a sell signal. No change there. We are still on a sell signal for the TD Bank. The TD Bank generated a sell signal back at the start of May and has not had a buy signal since. Now the TD has tried to crawl its way back, but got stopped at 78.13, then got stopped at 76.56. Now we’re looking to see if $75 will hold again. If it doesn’t, then look for a retest of the recent low. Then looking at Telus. Second day of a sell signal, no change there. Manulife pulled back into the channel yesterday. A close below 35.23 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. No change for Pembina. And then we’ve got Enbridge, still on a sell signal. No change there. We saw TC Energy pull back into the channel on Tuesday. A close below $52.84 would give us a new sell signal on Wednesday. And then we’ve got CIBC back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close.

Then in the news this morning, it appears that Canadian Western Bank is getting an offer from the National Bank and so that stock should pop dramatically Wednesday. You can certainly see that nobody had any indication that that news was coming. So congratulations to everybody for keeping that quiet. Of course, while Canadian Western Bank should trade higher, we should expect the National Bank to trade lower on Wednesday. Let’s finish off looking at the US most actives in Nvidia, the most actively traded stock on Tuesday and pulled back slightly on the day. Apple, of course, was the second most actively traded stock which we’ve already looked at at GameStop. Still on a buy signal. No change there. We’ve got neo making a new low for this move on Tuesday. No change. We do have Tesla back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close, so treaded water for a few weeks. Back on a sell signal. We still haven’t broken down below this low, so really looking for a breakdown of that low or a breakout of this high to tell us something new is happening for Tesla. Then looking at AMC looking for a close below $4.58 on Wednesday to give us a new sell signal.

Ford still on a buy signal pulling back in the channel. Things would change on Wednesday with a close below $11.91. Then no change for marathon. Still on a sell signal here. Making a new low for this move. Bank of America back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. No joy for Advanced Micro Devices. Still on a sell signal. New low for Vale and closed slightly lower on the day after making that new low. Certainly no change in trend there and then. It’s odd to see a little Canadian company up at the top of the most active us list, but Bitfarms still on a buy signal here. We are looking for a close below $2.23 on Wednesday. It is trading slightly higher in the pre market this morning, so we may not see a change in trend on Wednesday. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. CPI numbers coming out at 830. Then we’ve got the Fed news this afternoon, so it could turn out to be a very volatile day. Have a great day and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are currently trading below fair value. We don’t have any economic numbers coming out this morning, so not looking for any external stimulation. There is one bright spot this morning, and that is Eli Lilly, currently trading higher in the pre market. The stock has been quite on quite a run for the last month. Now, of course, everybody’s waiting for the Fed announcement, which comes out Tuesday afternoon. There’s been quite a reversal in bonds. Remember last week we had central banks cutting rates and that caused bonds to rise. You can see the 30 year bond is right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. Of course, if bonds are falling, bond yields are rising. The TLT is actually back on a sell signal after that big pop last week. Still above the upper channel line. No change there. Now, emerging market and junk bonds didn’t get as much response last week as we saw in the TLT and the XBB. And so they have pulled back. But of course, they did not pop as much as those two major bonds that we follow.

Now looking at the VIX, the VIX moved up yesterday looking for a close above 13.64 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. We saw Apple trade down yesterday. Remember buy the rumor, sell the news. Well, they finally announced AI and that caused the stock to fall. It is down in the premarket this morning. So we could see Apple end Tuesday on a sell signal with a close below $191.89. Then looking at Nvidia, which closed slightly higher yesterday, it is now trading after the stock split. We would need a close down below $111.62 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. If we can break through the 125 level, then $137.50 would be our next target to the upside. Now, the Dow closed higher yesterday. It’s still on a sell signal. Remember, the Dow does not contain Nvidia, which the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 do. We had a new all time closing high for the S&P 500 yesterday. What worked well, Constellation Energy was up over 8% on the day. Big loser last week. This week it’s coming back. We need a close on Tuesday above $216.79 to give us a new daily buy signal.

Now, Southwest Airlines had a big pop yesterday. If you trade this stock, if we go back to last week, our next price target was 29.69 and yesterday we closed at 29.70. Now our next mathematical target is 3125. But we do have the bottom of that open gap at 3078 as a potential area of resistance. So you got to lock in some profits yesterday, and hopefully the stock will continue to move higher from here. Now, what didn’t work? Well, Huntington was down sharply yesterday, down over 6% on the day. So certainly no change in trend there. We did see US banks and US Regional banks continue to fall on Monday. That’s probably not a good sign. Looking for support at those April lows. Then. Advanced Micro Devices was down on the day. It’s still on a sell signal. No change in trend there. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, new closing high, we’re trying to get to 468.75. That is our next price target for the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Crowdstrike was the big winner. It popped yesterday. If you go back to last week, our next price target was 359.38. And of course we found resistance there previously several times.

And then above that was 375. So what happened? Well, we traded up, hit the 375 level, closed at 374.57. So if you had an order in at 375, congratulations, it got filled. If you had an order in 359.38, the stock stock opened at 367.10. And so you got to lock in some profits up at that level as well. Now, what else worked? Well, lam research traded up to the previous high. So nice big update for Lam then looking at what didn’t work well, Illumina was down on the day. It was big. Winter last week pulled back, it’s still on a buy signal. Still closing at the upper channel line. What didn’t work? Well, it was Monster Beverages was the big loser. So no change in trend there. It looks like it’s heading towards $50. Then we’ve got Pepsi. Pepsi got bad news. It’s now the number three most popular drink in the US. So no change in trend for Pepsi, heading down towards those lows from back in March. Looking at the ishares for the TSX, 60 were up $0.06 yesterday. We need a close on Tuesday above $33.53. With everything trading down in the pre market this morning, not expecting that to happen.

Now, we did see money come back into commodities on Monday. Not enough to give us new signals, but we saw money come back into the energy sector. So Cenovus was the big winner. Shopify was up on the day. And our next price target was $87.50. Got as high as 87.70. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits there. Now, our next mathematical target is 93.75, and that is certainly a legitimate target. But we do have an open gap at 88.50 to get through before we get to the 93.75 level. Then looking at Wheaton, Wheaton was up on the day, so we had money come back into both energy and the precious metals, but again, not enough to give us new buy signals. And we’re looking at commodity prices falling in the pre market this morning. Now, what didn’t work on the TSX yesterday? Well, circle k is back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. We also have Telus back on a sell signal. So the curse of the telecom companies is still in play. The market still hates these telecom stocks. I don’t know when that’s going to change. If you follow this sector, you’ve got to continue to take the buy signals.

But unfortunately, it’s still a cursed sector at this time. Now, CAE was another big loser yesterday and it is still on a sell signal. So no change in trend there. Let’s finish off looking at commodities and we saw copper make a new low yesterday before reversing. So certainly no change in trend. No change in trend for the price of gold. And again, it’s down in the pre market this morning. And no change in trend for the price of silver. Crude oil was back sharply yesterday, is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. And we’ve got natural gas making a new high for this move, but not testing the previous high from a couple of weeks ago. And it closed down slightly on the day. So no change in trend for natural gas. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see a little selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We have a whole whack of employment numbers coming out on both sides of the border this morning. And of course, if those numbers are hot, that’s probably bad for the stock market. If they’re cold and employment numbers are falling, then that’s probably good for the stock market. So we’ll just have to wait and see. Now, in the pre market, we’ve got crude oil up slightly, while gold is down about $40 in the pre market. So there was some positive action in the gold sector yesterday. It’s probably going to unwind today. So I wouldn’t be overly excited to jump in on Friday morning. Let’s start off this morning looking at Nvidia. And Nvidia hit our next price target. So if you had an order in there at 1250, you got filled. Yesterday, we pulled back but did not close below the previous day’s low. So not overly concerned just yet. The Magz ETF made a new high yesterday and actually held the gain going into the close. Now, the XSD ETF hit our next price target of 250 over the past couple of days.

250 is an important target. Not only is it a daily target, but it’s a weekly target. So I know people have taken some money off the table at that level. Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX closed down just a nickel yesterday. Things would change on Friday with a close above 13.81. The Dow did trade up through the upper channel line yesterday, but did not close above it. So the Dow still on a sell signal. Small pullback for the SPY yesterday, down a penny on the day. The equal weighted spy still on a sell signal. No change there was down a little more than the spy yesterday, but no change in trend. Now, the triple Q’s were down $0.16 yesterday, so no big move there. While we had the Equal Weighted Nasdaq 100 down $0.08 on the day. So still no major change. Now, the next generation Nasdaq had an inside day, closed slightly lower. We saw the Russell 2000 pullback having an inside day, inside day for small caps and an inside day for micro caps. So no change in trend for the rest of the market. Now, just one sector. I’m watching closely.

The Regional Banks. They’ve been holding $47 for the last week. We’ll have to see if that continues, if they can build a base there or if that $47 level is going to break. Of course, if it breaks, we would imagine it would head back down and retest the April lows. But so far that has not started. Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, they traded up to the upper trend line yesterday. We need to close on Friday above 33.58. With what’s happening in the gold sector this morning, I’m not sure that’s going to happen. Looking at the Energy sector, very quiet trading on Thursday, no change in trend. Looking at the Financials, an inside day on Thursday, small pullback, no change in trend. Gold stocks were up yesterday, end of the day on a buy signal. I’m not sure I would chase that on Friday. And then the price of Gold. If we look at the iShares gold bullion ETF, it also generated a buy signal on Thursday. Again, I think that’s going to unwind on Friday. Taking a look at the Base Metal ETF, it was up on the day, but no change in trend.

Now looking at the TSX most actives from Thursday’s trading action, not a lot of trend changes to talk about. We’ve got Suncor still on a sell signal, no change there. Manulife in the channel for the second day. For the third day, excuse me, looking for a close on Friday above $35.68 to give us a new buy signal. Would I chase that up here? No, absolutely not. But buy signal is a buy signal for some people and I would imagine if we get one it would just retest the recent high. Looking at Baytex, no joy there. Again, you know, this is a very bearish chart pattern. We recently put in a lower low after making a series of lower highs, so still a very bearish looking chart pattern. No joy for Cenovus, still on a sell signal here. We’ve got Enbridge trading in the channel, looking for a close on Friday, above 49.80. We closed at 49.48 yesterday. Then looking at Telus, it’s on a buy signal right now. It’s broken out above the 22.86 level, heading towards 23.44. Looking at Bitfarms, we pulled back after making a new high yesterday. Our next price target was 3.52. We hit a high of 3.53 yesterday.

So if you had an order in at 3.52, it got filled. Congratulations. Then looking at Hydro One, we’re on a buy signal right now. We are coming up towards the 41.41 level. You can see it presented a bunch of resistance back there in March, then in May we faded just below that level, so keep that in the back of your mind. TD Bank traded through the upper channel line yesterday, but did not close above it. We’re looking for a close on Friday above $76.66. Let’s finish off today’s presentation, taking a look at the most actives and unfortunately it’s a GameStop and AMC at the top of the most active list. And of course these stocks are being highly manipulated and they seem to be pulling back a little in the premarket last time I checked. But again, they’re extremely volatile and if you’re going to play these, you know, play it with risk money, don’t be betting the farm on either of these stocks. Now getting back to reality, Nio is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. No joy for Tesla. Tesla still trading water here? That’s really hard to believe.

I wouldn’t have predicted that in a million years. Palantir. Palantir ran up and got pretty close to filling the open gap from early May. If it can do that and keep going, then dollar 25 is our next price target. No joy for marathon. Still treading water here has not taken out the recent high. Then looking at AMD, we’re still on a sell signal here from Tuesday. We traded up to the upper ten line yesterday, looking for a close on Friday above $168.41. Apple made a new high for this move on Wednesday. Small pullback on Thursday closed below the previous day’s low. So that could be the end of this run for Apple. On Friday we’re looking for a close below $190.95 to give us a sell signal for Apple. Robinhood continuing to move higher is broken out above resistance at 21.88. Our next target is $25 if it can pull away from the 21.88 level. Novavax hit a new high yesterday before reversing still well above the upper channel line. Things would change on Friday with a close below $15.24. Then looking at American Airlines, we’ve been trying to find support here around the 1150 level.

We’ve traded a little below that, but we could be building a base. We’ll just have to wait and see. Obviously no upward momentum or any sign of a trend change at this time. Now this is rather unusual to see a mining stock up near the top of the most active list, but Fortuna had been on quite a run which started at the start of March. We finally got a sell signal on Wednesday. You had lots of time to take money off the table along the way, so it should still be a very profitable trade. But yeah, it’s rather unusual to see a mining stock near the top of the most active list in the us market. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Waiting for those employment numbers to come out at 830. Have a great day, have a wonderful weekend, and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, June 7, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning. So far, things are fairly quiet. There’s a little tick up in the Nasdaq futures, but otherwise it’s pretty calm out there ahead of us. Jobless claims that come out at 8:30 this morning. It’s Nvidia once again leading the market higher. And it’s getting pretty close to the 1250 level in the pre market this morning. Now, just as a, you know, as a common courtesy, as a warning, this could be a buy the rumor sell the news type situation. That is always a possibility. And of course, the news is the stock is splitting tomorrow after hours. So just be aware of that, that there might be a lot of people deciding to sell after the split. Looking at the mag ZTF, it made a new high for this move yesterday. Well, a new all time high, excuse me. And we had Apple continue to move higher. Now. Apple is getting pretty close to it’s all time high, which is up there at 199.62. So we may actually hit that on Thursday. Amazon traded up into the channel yesterday.

A close above $182.07 would give us a buy signal on Friday. We’ve got Alphabet back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Nice big up move for meta yesterday. Finally some traction there. Next target is 500 and then back up to the previous high up there at 531.25. Then looking at Microsoft, it is back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Shopify, third day of a buy signal here. So I waved off the first one and thought that Shopify just walked into a buy signal. But we saw fall through to the upside and continue to move higher yesterday. If you’re trading shopify, then the bottom of that open gear app is your target at the moment. And then Tesla, nothing going on there. Still on a buy signal, but dipped through the lower channel line yesterday. So nobody’s interested in Tesla at this time. So what worked yesterday? Well, the big winner was the semiconductors and they put in a new high yesterday. The VIX is back on a sell signal, just barely. As of Wednesday’s close. The Dow traded up into the channel once again. So still waiting for a buy signal there.

Now we had a huge up move in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. And I’m going to take my loss, but I’m not going to go long at this time. I think that was rather overdone and we’ll probably pull back next week. The equal weighted S&P 500 still on a sell signal. No change there. Nasdaq 100, huge update yesterday, over 2%. And again, I’m just going to take my loss and stand aside for the time being. We actually have the equal weighted Nasdaq back on a buy signal as well, not the next generation. And then we’re still waiting for the Russell 2000. So the mid caps, small caps and micro caps are all still on sell signals. No change there. So once again, it’s a very concentrated move to the upside, but it is taking those indices up to new all time highs. Then we’re talking about interest rates. And the TLT continues to move higher yesterday. And the XBB continued to move higher yesterday as the bank of Canada pulled back interest rates. And we’re waiting for the Europeans to start doing the same thing. Now the TSX was up yesterday, not enough to give us a new buy signal.

Looking for a close on Thursday above $33.60. Now yesterday was one of those rare days in which everything worked and we had infotech back on a buy signal. And notice the huge discrepancy between what’s going on with canadian infotech and what’s going on with us. Infotech, of course, they have those big cap tech stocks that everybody has been following closely. We’ve got Shopify and of course Shopify is coming off a recent low, so no joy there. When we’re looking at Infotech, what worked yesterday in percentage terms? Well, Celestica was the big winner, so still waiting for a buy signal there. Dye & Durham’s back with a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. And then we’ve got HUT 8. Those are the big winners in percentage terms from Wednesday’s trading action. Now, somebody asked me about the Clean Technology Index, which seems to have been on a tear for the last month. This is not an index I’ve spent any time looking at. I don’t know the components. The reason I haven’t been looking at it is if you look at a monthly chart of this index, you can see it peaked back in late to 2020 and has been in a decline ever since.

So I really don’t know anything about it. If there’s something to explore there, please let me know. Consumer Staples has been doing well and made a new high yesterday. Over the last month it’s been Primo. Water has been the big winner in percentage terms. Then looking at the industrials, it is back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. The big winners in the industrials over the last month has been Bombardier and then GFL environmental has been up sharply over the past couple of days on rumors of a takeover, so that those are the two big winners for last month in the industrials. Then we have the real estate sector back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. And of course, falling interest rates can help prop up the real estate sector. Then looking at telecom stocks. Third day of a buy signal here. We’re still waiting for Cogeco and Quebecor. Otherwise the other major companies are on buy signals at the moment. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. I’m doing this ahead of those employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning, and at that time we’ll walk through the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, June 6, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning. Stock index futures and commodities are currently above fair value. We’re being led higher this morning by the technology sector as Nvidia once again makes a new high. We’ve got energy inventories coming out later this morning that could certainly change the direction of the energy sector. A couple of countries in the news right now, both Mexico and India had elections. Looking at the Mexican chart, the traders were correct going into the election and it was already on a sell signal. Notice there are not very many gaps on this chart. Compare that to the Indian chart. There’s the iShares, there’s the Morgan Stanley ETF, anything that’s halfway around the world. Of course, North American investors are going to have a delayed reaction to whatever happens. So you will often see a lot of gaps in ETF’s tracking overseas markets that are not in our time zones. And whatever was going on with the traders ahead of the election, you can see that there was a huge move up and then a massive move down. So quite a lot of volatility related to the Indian election.

Now Nvidia is once again making new highs this morning. There should be psychological resistance at 1200, and if that breaks, then 1250 is our next mathematical target. It’s the current top of our projected trading range, but we can always break through that and continue to move higher. So we’ll talk about that if Nvidia does get to 1250. Now, bonds are in the news today. The Canadian central bank is probably going to cut interest rates. And you can see that the TLT has been up for the past couple of days. Rising bond prices equals lower yields. Compare that to the XBB trading in Toronto. So it’s kind of assumed that the Canadian Central Bank is going to lower interest rates this morning. Looking at the Canadian dollar, you can see it’s been treading sideways for a while now. So investors, not that skittish going into today’s announcement. Looking at the Canadian stock market, the TSX came down hard yesterday, traded below the recent low, but did not close below it. There’s the TSX 60 coming right down to the recent low. New low for this move for mid caps, for small caps, and now for micro caps, which are back on a sell signal.

What didn’t work yesterday? Well, it was materials, energies, and then financials were the big losers. There’s materials, there’s the energy sector continuing to move lower. And then there’s the financials still on a sell signal. No change in trend there. Then looking at the worst performers on the TSX 60, it was First Quantum, followed by Teck, followed by Barrick, and then followed by Kinross, which is now back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Looking at the US market, the VIX had another inside day of an inside day. Still looking for close below 12.72 on Wednesday to give us a new sell signal for the VIX. Now, the Dow moved up yesterday, still at the lower channel line. The S&P 500 is sitting right on the edge of a new buy signal. And the NASDAQ. If we close above yesterday’s high, that would also give us a new buy signal. Now, the rest of the market not as enthusiastic as the major indices, of course. We’ve got a handful of stocks back once again, pushing the market higher. But the rest of the market, equal weighted NASDAQ, actually closed lower on the day.

The Next Generation Nasdaq stocks were down over half a percent. And then looking at the Russell 2000, trading down over 1% yesterday. Then we had small cap stocks, a new closing low for this move for the small caps and micro cap stocks breaking down below the recent low. So, yeah, we had a positive day for the major indices, but the rest of the market not going in that direction. Looking at Homebuilders, a new closing low for homebuilders for this move. We saw the Banks come down yesterday and the Regional Banks coming back down to the recent low. So that’s kind of a bearish sign, but we’ll just have to see if the market can plow through that. Looking at commodities, and we’ll finish off just looking at the miners. We’ve got Copper making a new low for this move. Yesterday we had Copper Miners down nearly 5% on the day. Then looking at the price of gold and the GLD still on sell signals. No change there. We had the junior miners come down. They’re back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close, joining the GDX and the XGD on sell signals. Now. Then looking at the price of silver.

We’re back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. The SLV already on a sell signal, so no change there. And then we’ve got the silver miners and now the junior silver miners, both back on sell signals as of Tuesday’s close. Okay, folks, that’s all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like the major indices want to open higher. What the rest of the market does, we’ll just have to wait and see. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update. Never.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading down. So, so far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Well, Monday turned out to be a weird day for the market. Lots of stuff going on at the end of the day. The VIX had an inside day. A close below 12.63 would give us a new sell signal on Tuesday. From what we’re seeing in the premarket this morning, we’re not expecting that to happen. Now, one of the biggest stories from Monday’s trading action was the big sell off in crude oil, and that is continuing this morning. And that, of course, is putting downward pressure on energy stocks on both sides of the border. We have lots of new sell signals, short term sell signals in the energy sector coming into Tuesday’s trading action. Now, looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, they had a wild day yesterday. They traded right up to the upper channel line before reversing. We need to close on Tuesday above 33.68. Not expecting that to happen.

Both crude oil and gold are trading down in the premarket. What we’re seeing in the pre market on Bloomberg looking at the futures for the TSX 60, we are currently trading down at the recent low and so we might break that on Tuesday. Then, looking at the Dow, it traded above the previous day’s high for a couple of seconds and then came back down and we closed lower on the day. So no change in trend there. Now, the S&P 500 did close higher and traded up into the channel. Once again, we’re looking for a close on Tuesday above $528.64. We’re not seeing anything like that in the pre market. Similar situation for the QQQ’s. We’re looking for a close on Tuesday above $456.70. That would give us a new buy signal. It does not look like we’re going in that direction in the pre market. Looking at the Magnificent Eight, we saw the ETF move higher yesterday, not a new high, but did move up on the day. Still on a buy signal. We did have a new high yesterday for Apple. And Apple did hit our next target and settled just above it at the 193.75 level, looking for a move up to 200 if Apple wants to break away from this level.

We closed slightly above it, did not break away from it. So that hasn’t happened yet and it isn’t likely to happen on Tuesday. Taking a look at Amazon inside day.

No change there.

No change for Google or Alphabet. We’re still looking for a close above $177.07 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. Meta traded higher yesterday. A close below 466 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday inside day for Microsoft. So no change there. Nvidia closing higher yesterday, not a new high, but closing higher on the day. And then Shopify walked into a buy signal on both sides of the border. I would sit on my hands. I wouldn’t run into this. Looking at what the pros are doing right now. They’re not really interested in the stock. So it is just a mathematical anomaly that we walked into a buy signal. Looking at Shopify on the TSX 81.25, we closed just above it but really did not break out above it. And then looking at the midterm chart, we’ve got a ways to go before we get a midterm buy signal. And you can see momentum down here. Nothing’s going on whatsoever, so no reason to buy. Shopify coming into Tuesday’s trading action. Sit on your hands, wait for additional closes above the upper channel line, but really do not walk into Shopify on Tuesday morning.

Looking at Tesla. Tesla still trading sideways here. Looking for a close on Tuesday below $174.03 to give us a new daily sell signal. Moving on to the most actives and once again, Gamestop at the top of the most active list. Of course this stock is being pumped and look at what happened yesterday. Oh, my goodness. We opened way up here and closed way down here. So that’s of course the public getting screwed at the open if they were buying. And then we came all the way back down. So, you know, there’s no low risk opportunity here. Yeah, it can continue to move higher, but oh, my goodness, you’re taking on a lot of risk and I wouldn’t do it. AMC end of the day, still on a sell signal.

No change there.

These are two dead companies that people are just manipulating. Really should not be a part of anyone’s investment portfolio. Looking at Advanced Micro Devices, we traded down to the lower channel line yesterday once again, but did not close below it. Looking for a close below $161.16 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. We’ve got Ford back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. You can wait for the next close above the upper chain line. No reason to run into that on Tuesday morning. Nio still on a buy signal.

No change there then.

No change for American Airlines, made a new low on Friday. With crude oil prices falling, that could help the airline stocks. But I have no idea if anybody’s interested in that story at this time. Looking at marathon, we’re on a sell signal right now. No joy there. Then next up, Carnival popped, and that’s another company that could benefit from lower crude oil prices. Then Dell dropped on Friday, continued to move lower on Monday.

No change there.

A new high yesterday for at and t before pulling back and closing slightly lower on the day. Taking a look at the TSX most actives, we’re going to see a lot of negativity in the energy sector here. And we’ve got Suncor back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. No joy for Great West. We closed slightly higher on the day. Certainly no change in trend. Enbridge still trading in the channel. A close above $49.86 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday. Then a big drop for Baytex, back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Inside day for TC Energy. Things would change on Tuesday with a close above $52.64. Again, another energy stock rolling over, and that is Cenovus. Then we’re looking at Manulife. Still on a cell signal here.

No change there.

Then we had an inside day for CIBC. No change there. Barrick actually closed slightly above the upper channel line. You can sit on that for a day or two and wait and see if we get continued movement up. But otherwise I would not race into that buy signal on Tuesday morning. Athabasca, back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Looking at bit farms, a new closing high for this particular move for Bitfarms. Of course, that’s not a new high, it’s just a new high for this particular move. Things would change on Tuesday if we closed below $2.75. Not expecting that to happen. Then looking at Kinross. Kinross still on a buy signal here, things would change on Tuesday with a close below $10.82. And then just recap, the price of gold was up slightly yesterday. It is down in the pre market this morning. We need to close above $2399.30 to give us a buy signal on Tuesday. From what we’re seeing in the pre market this morning, not expecting that to happen. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open.

We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out today, so it’s really all about investors optimism or lack of it on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, today is the first trading day of June and so far things look pretty quiet out there. Stock index futures and commodities are slightly above fair value. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning, so not expecting some extra volatility in the pre market. Now, I always say that month end usually has a bullish bias to it, typically not like what we saw on Friday, which was a huge update for the market markets. The Dow had been selling off for the last week or so and had a nice recovery day on Friday closed above the previous two days highs. So that is a bullish sign. We filled a couple of gaps there. We’ll have to see if we can continue to move higher. It looked like the market was doing some bottom fishing on Friday. We had Salesforce was the big winner on the Dow, followed by UnitedHealth, followed by McDonald’s. And of course, none of those stocks generated new buy signals. There were actually two losers on Friday in the Dow 30. The first one was Amazon, and then we had Caterpillar.

Those were the only two losers on the Dow on Friday. Now, the VIX came down sharply on Friday, not enough to give us a sell signal. That would happen on Monday if the VIX were to close below 12.54. Huge reversal day for the S&P 500. We generated a sell signal based on Thursday’s close. If you took that sell signal, you sold and it actually opened slightly higher on the day on Friday. Here we are in the channel coming into Monday’s trading action. We need a close above $528.71 on Monday. Then looking at the equal weighted S&P, it actually outperformed the S&P on Friday. The S&P was up 0.91%. The equal weighted was up 1.33%. So again, we’re getting pretty close to a buy signal now. There was a huge reversal in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq actually ended the day lower and actually ended on a daily sell signal. You can wave that off this morning and wait for the next close. Below the lower channel line. The Nasdaq 100 was down 0.19%, while the equal weighted Nasdaq was actually up nearly a quarter of a percent on the day.

And we also had the, the next generation Nasdaq stocks up just over half a percent on the day. So it was quite a while. A very wide based rally on Friday. There’s the Russell 2000 trading up, getting pretty close to the upper channel line. So a close on Monday above 206.57 would give us a buy signal for the Russell 2000. What was the big winner on Friday? Well, it was actually the Energy sector which closed just above the upper channel line again. If you want you can wait for the next close above it to confirm. That buy signal now may turned out to be a very positive month for the markets. Looking at a monthly chart of the S&P 500 ETF, we were up a little over 5% on the month, making a new high. That’s also true for the Nasdaq 100. Up a little over 6%, again making a new high for this move. Now looking at the canadian market, the ishares for the TSX 60 were up a little over 1% for the day on Friday and we’re looking for a close above $33.70 on Monday to give us a new daily buy signal.

What worked on Friday? Well, Dollarama was the big winner, up over 4%, continuing this huge rally for that stock. Then we had a couple of other consumer related stocks on the top of the winners list, starting with Canadian Tire up moving up to the lower channel line while Restaurant Brands moved up into the channel. We are looking for a close above $94.40 on Monday to give us a buy signal for Restaurant Brands. What didn’t work well, Wheaton was the big loser, back on a sell signal as of Friday’s close. Quite a reversal for the CIBC and ending the day down 2.33%. So a little bit of a reversal but no sell signal for CIBC coming into Monday’s trading action. Then First Quantum was the next big loser of the day. Still on a daily sell signal. No change there. Now looking at a monthly chart for the ishares for the TSX 60, we ended the month up 1.85% and we are still trying to get to our next price target of $34.38. We opened and closed the week pretty well at the same level at the 33.59 level, down very slightly. Just $0.04 on the week.

So no big move there coming into the month end. So 34.38 still our next target to the upside. Now looking at the seasonalities coming into June when we start off with the VIX, the VIX usually starts the month down at a new low and then we’re looking for a move up into the middle of the month and the VIX should stay elevated right into the end of the month. Then looking at the S&P 500, we usually come in on a positive note. The first week is usually pretty good. And then we get a sell off into the last week of the month. And then looking at the TSX we see coming into the month is usually pretty bullish. And then we get that ride down into the third week of June. And then this is about the point where we look for the summer rally to start through July and August. Let’s finish off looking at the Magnificent Eight. Starting off with the Mags ETF. It had a wild day on Friday, trading down through the lower channel line before recovering. Still closing slightly lower on the day, just by $0.03. So no major move there.

Apple still on a buy signal that would change on Monday with a close below $188.58. We’re still trying to get to $193.75 that has been acting as resistance. So we know there’s some sell orders in up at that level. Looking at Amazon, Amazon made a new low for this move. If you had, if you’re short Amazon and you had a buy order in at 1.75, congratulations, it got filled on Friday. Looking at Alphabet, still on a sell signal. No change there. No change for meta. Meta spent most of the day below the lower channel line before recovering. So we’re still looking for a close below $466.24 on Monday to give us a sell signal for meta. Microsoft had a huge reversal, actually ended the day slightly higher after running down. If you had a buy order in at 406.25, congratulations. That got filled on Friday. And then Nvidia was trading water on Friday. Closed the day down slightly on the day. We’re stuck here at $1125. If we take out the recent high, then $1250 does come into play. Looking at Shopify. Shopify looks like it’s going to walk into a buy signal here in New York.

We’re looking for a close on Monday above $59.34. In Toronto we’re looking for a close above $80.80. Then looking at Tesla, Tesla still treading water here. I saw a video this morning about the positive seasonality Tesla has in the month of June. You know, historically they’re all positive when you look at Tesla over the long term on a short term basis. Of course, Tesla is struggling right now. Still on a buy signal that would change on Monday with a close below $173.95. Okay, folks, that’s all I need to cover this morning. It looks like we’re going to have a slightly positive open on Monday. Friday was a wild day. A lot of looked like some bottom fishing going on. Going into month end, portfolio managers doing something with their portfolios. I don’t know, but yeah, that was a lot of money that came in to the market late in the day on Friday, and it certainly wasn’t you and me. Okay, enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we’ll walk through the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, June 3, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it is last trading day of the month. This day usually has a bullish bias to it, but this week has been a negative week for the market so we may not see a lot of buying on Friday. Currently the stock index futures are down across the board, but that is ahead of the PPI numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. That could certainly help change the direction of the market. Now we’ve still got the VIX on a buy signal. It moved higher yesterday. That of course is negative for stocks. The Dow continued to move sharply lower again on Thursday. We knew about Salesforce in the pre market and that helped move the Dow down sharply. But so did Microsoft. Microsoft rolling over on Thursday back on a sell signal. Apple still holding up. We’re still trying to hit $193.75. That hasn’t happened just yet. Maybe that’ll happen on Friday. Now in the after hours today we are looking at Dell and Dell is trading down, currently trading below the lower channel. Of course, these are all pre market numbers.

We’re waiting for the close before we do anything. If you’ve been trading dell, you’ve had several opportunities to take money off the table. So congratulations. If you chose to lock in profits along the way, you should just have a partial position left which you’ll probably have to exit on Monday morning. Looking at what didn’t work yesterday, well, technology was the big loser on both sides of the border. What did work were Canadian Banks. They were the big winners yesterday which helped push up the Canadian Financial sector. And then we saw US Regional Banks as big winners on Thursday from the us market. They were the biggest winners on the day. Still no change in trend here, but we filled the gap. So lets see if we can continue to move higher on Friday. Now looking at the Canadian Banks which have been in the news all week, Bank of Montreal collapsed the other day, small gain yesterday. Now in the pre market this morning, I knew about the Royal Bank. I didn’t know about CIBC which was the big winner yesterday. And then followed by the Royal bank. So big turnarounds for Canadian Banks on Thursday.

What didn’t turn around? Well, the TD bank, it’s still on a sell signal here. It was up slightly on the day on Thursday, but certainly no change in trend. Now looking at the TSX itself, it traded slightly up into the gap yesterday. So no major gains for the TSX overall on Thursday. Looking at the us market, the S&P 500 SPY ETF is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. That joins the Equal Weighted ETF already on a sell signal. And then what worked yesterday on the S&P 500, HP was the big winner, followed by Best Buy, which gapped higher yesterday. What didn’t work well, Salesforce was the big loser. But then and after that, it was serviced now, followed by Hormel, followed by Agilent. Those were the big losers on the S&P 500 from Thursday’s trading action. Now, the Nasdaq traded down to the lower channel line yesterday, did not close below it. So for the triple qs, we’re looking for a close on Friday below $451.20. And if that were to happen, that would join the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 ETF already on a sell signal.

It would also join the Next Generation Nasdaq stocks already on a sell signal. Now, what was interesting yesterday was the Russell 2000 Mid Cap stocks. We saw Small Cap and Micro Cap stocks all trade higher on Thursday. So a little bit of movement from big caps to small caps on Thursday. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, looking at commodities starting with copper. Copper moved lower yesterday. Already on a sell signal. Copper miners already on a sell signal. No change there. No change for the price of gold. It ended the day slightly higher on the day. We’ve got junior gold miners still on a buy signal. US gold miners on a sell signal right now. Canadian gold miners just treading water here. Remember, entering up at these levels, these are high risk opportunities. All the easy money was made back here off the bottom of the panic zones. Then looking at the price of silver, we’re still on a buy signal here. No change in trend for silver miner. For the Junior Silver Miners, they’re still on a buy signal. And then for the Big Cap Silver Miners, they are still on a buy signal. Looking at the price of crude oil, it pulled back into the channel yesterday looking for a close on Friday below $77.54. If that were to happen, that would join natural gas on its second day of a sell signal.

Hopefully, if you’re trading natural gas, you had time to lock in some profits. We hit some profit targets on the way up. Then looking at energy stocks themselves, the Canadian Energy sector is still treading water here. It looks very similar to it did the week before and the week before that. I’d be really interested in getting back in this market if it started to fall below the 18.50 level or if we took out this recent high from back in late April. But otherwise, all the trading has been contained in a very tight range here and we’re looking for an expansion of that range, either to the upside or to the downside. Now, US Energy stocks look totally different and after peaking in early April, we’ve made a series of lower highs and lower lows. And so that is a very bearish chart pattern. And we’re currently coming into Friday on a sell signal, having an inside day on Thursday. So no change in trend for us energy stocks. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We don’t know what the PPI numbers are going to do to the market on Friday. Typically, month end has a bullish bias to it.

That doesn’t guarantee that the market trades and closes higher. It does help buffer some of the downward pressure. So we may see some buying come in today, but probably not enough to change the overall direction of the market. Enjoy the rest of your day, enjoy your weekend and we’ll talk to you again soon. I don’t know what my weekend schedule is just yet, but I will certainly be back on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 31, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. So, so far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open. At the same time, we do have economic numbers coming out this morning, including us jobless claims that could certainly help change the direction of the market. Now, commodities are mixed. We’ve got crude oil, natural gas, basically unchanged, while gold is down another $6 in the pre market. Well, yesterday we saw fear starting to rise. We’ve got the VIX back on a buy signal that is negative for stocks. If that continues, things would change on Thursday if the VIX were to close below 12.28. Now, yesterday morning, we knew that American Airlines was going to gap lower at the open. And as you can see, it didn’t really gain anything back. It closed near the low of the day. We’re also watching Air Canada yesterday morning, and it gapped lower as well, heading down towards those lows from back in March. Now, last week I brought up the Dow Transports, something to look at as a canary in the coal mine.

I didn’t know American Airlines was going to come out with the earnings that they came out with yesterday. So here we have the Dow transports making a new closing low on Wednesday. Now anytime that you look at a chart and you see it’s made a lower low and a lower high, you know, that is a very weak hand. What the market does with that hand, whether it starts breaking down and making lower lows below the previous low, you know, that’s always yet to be determined. But you know right from the get go that the market is playing a very weak hand for this particular sector. Now, I also brought up the Dow last week. It got hit really hard and has not recovered at all. And it has continued to move lower. So Dow 40,000 has come and gone for the time being. Of course, it can always get back up there. But that party was very short lived. Now, what hurt the Dow yesterday was Unitedhealthcare was the biggest loser, gapping lower already on a sell signal, and then Intel was the second biggest loser. Can you imagine what the Dow would look like if we got rid of, if they got rid of the chipmaker of yesteryear for the chipmaker of tomorrow, which, of course, is Nvidia, which actually ended the day up on the day.

Now, looking at the pros versus the public, the public and the media loves the Dow. You know, when Mike Eppel (680 News) mentions how the market is doing, they’re always going to quote the Dow because it’s been the oldest index out there. But as far as the pros are concerned, it’s not that big a deal. Whether you’re following the futures contract, the index, the e mini or the SPY, which is what we follow on a daily basis. That’s what the market is focused on, not the Dow. Now, all of those are sitting on the edge of a new daily sell signal. We may get that on Thursday. And if you look at what the market’s looking at, when we look at volumes, the SPY was the second most actively traded ETF yesterday with over 45 million shares. It’s usually up in the top five every day. The Dow diamonds, which we certainly look at on a daily basis, was the 124th most actively traded ETF yesterday. In the, with the 2.7 million shares traded. Now, what was most actively traded ETF from Wednesday? Well, it was actually the TLT which gapped lower. And if bonds are moving lower, bond yields are moving higher.

That can help put downward pressure on the stock market. Now, of course, the SPY is up at the top of the most active ETF list. So are the triple qs. And they ended the day down 0.7%, still closing above the upper channel line. So we may see a new sell signal for the SPY on Thursday. We may not see it for the triple qs then looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, they came into yesterday already on a sell signal, gapping lower. That had a lot to do with the Bank of Montreal. And when I looked at the pre market activity for the Bank of Montreal in New York yesterday morning, it was not down anything like this. So that is just a huge move for a bank. And here we are down, closing below the lows from earlier this year. So that is just a terrible, terrible chart. Now, if you were trading Bank of Montreal, if we go back in time to May 14, just as an example, we had the next two price targets as 131.25 and then 134.38. We move ahead a week or so and the targets are still there.

They have not changed. And then right up until the previous day, up until Tuesday, we got as high as 131.40. So you had a chance to lock in some profits up there before the stock fell apart. So the stock came right down and got as low as just above the 118.75 level. So we had the chance to take some money off the table. But it is still a terrible sell off for a major bank stock. You don’t see that every day. Now, speaking of bank stocks, the financials themselves are on a sell signal. They came into yesterday already on a sell signal. So a big move down for the financials. A lot of that, of course, had to do with the Bank of Montreal. Now, we may see some money come back into financials this morning. Yesterday, the Royal Bank was down on the day and is back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. You come in this morning and you see the news and in New York, it’s actually trading up over $6 in the the pre market. So we’re going to wave off that sell signal and just hold on and remain long.

The remainder of your position in the Royal Bank. Then looking at what’s not working this morning. Well, Salesforce is coming into Thursday’s trading action already on a sell signal and it is down sharply. It’s moving down past a few of our price targets, currently trading down around the 229 level. Of course, that number is going to be different when you look at your screen, but it is certainly a major sell off and a major reason why the stock market’s futures are down in the pre market. Path is also down this morning. That is a bigger loser than Salesforce, which of course is a Dow 30 stock. So has a lot more influence on the overall market than path does. But Path is down nearly 30% in the pre market. So it’s still all about Nvidia. Nvidia is still holding up fairly well, but the rest of the market is starting to pull back. You know, it’s overdue for a pullback. Whether it’s going to turn into something major or not is yet to be determined. But we are going to take our sell signals for the Bull ETF’s and individual stocks. And of course sell signals in the Bull ETF’s can equal buy signals for the Bear ETF’s.

We certainly have that for the TSX and we’ll have to wait and see if we get it for the S and P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, May 30, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, we’ve got stock index futures down across the board. Commodities are mixed with crude oil higher, while gold is lower in the premarket on Wednesday morning. Now, once again, Nvidia captured the headlines on Tuesday, but unfortunately, the rest of the market wasn’t paying attention. Look at the VIX trading up through the upper channel line for the first time in over a month. And on Wednesday, we’re looking for a close above 13.13 to give us a buy signal. And I’m kind of expecting that to happen. Now, typically, I don’t give a damn about the Dow 30, but I’ve just been watching the divergence between the Dow 30 and the rest of the market. And remember, Nvidia is not in the Dow 30, it’s in the Nasdaq 100. It’s in the S&P 500, but it is not in the Dow 30. So yesterday we saw Merck lead the Dow 30 lower, then followed by Amgen, then McDonald’s making a new low for this move. And the Johnson and Johnson down for the third day on a sell signal.

Then the Travelers group. These are all the biggest losers on the Dow from Tuesday’s trading action. And then Procter and Gamble, third day of a sell signal there. Now looking at the Dow Transports, another area we’ve been watching because of the big divergence between this area of the market and the major indices. We’ve got United Parcel making a new low on Tuesday. Now this morning, American Airlines is down a lot in the pre market this morning, so that’s pulling other airlines down. And we’ve been watching Air Canada, which made a new low for this move on Tuesday and is trying to hold support from the April low. But I think that’s going to fall apart this morning. So next logical areas to run down to the lows from March. Now, if airlines are going down, of course, the Jets ETF, which is already on a sell signal, will be moving lower as well on Wednesday. Now, looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, we generated a sell signal last week. On Friday we traded back up. On Monday the markets were open, but I really didn’t care what they did. And now we’re coming down on Tuesday and we expect to continue lower on Wednesday.

Now, two of the biggest losers on the TSX 60 on Tuesday were the transportation stocks. We had CP and CN down sharply on the day. And now we’ve got CN back on a sell signal, joining CP already on a sell signal. Now, the S&P 500 was up slightly yesterday, and that had a lot to do with Nvidia. If you look at the equal weighted S&P 500, so give every stock the same ranking, the same weighting in the index. You can see we’re still on a sell signal from last Thursday. Now, it was a similar situation for the Nasdaq 100, which was able to push slightly higher on Tuesday while the equal weighted Nasdaq was down three quarters of a percent and change, and is sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. And if that were to happen, that would join the next generation Nasdaq stocks already on a daily sell signal. Now, because Nvidia was up sharply yesterday, that pushed the semiconductor ETF’s up on the day. And you can see the magnificent seven ETF also made a new high for this move on the back of Nvidia, which ended the day up just under 7%.

Next up, I wanted to just spend a couple of seconds talking about volatility. When you look at our nightly performance reports, and I’m referring to the first page, which has all of the sectors, some of the sectors continue to show up as the best performing sectors and the worst performing sectors, and that has a lot to do with volatility. Silver miners, for example, were the best performing sector on our watch list. They were up over 3% yesterday. Now, the average true range for the silver miners ETF is currently just under 3%. So you might not realize that, but for a sector that is quite large, the biggest loser yesterday was the us Marijuana stocks, down just under 2%. But that was a fairly quiet day, considering the fact that the average true range for the marijuana ETF is just under 5% right now. Now, those numbers might not sound big, but when you compare them to a baseline, when you compare them to the rest of the market, they are dramatically higher. If you look at the Semiconductor ETF, the current average shoe range is under 2%. So we think of the chip sector as being volatile.

Yes, it’s much more volatile than the rest of the market. But when you compare it to sectors such as Silver miners and Marijuana stocks, it certainly is not very volatile. And then when you get down to the baseline for us financial stocks, their average true range is under 1% per day. And for canadian financial stocks, it’s under three quarters of a percent per day. So the silver miners marijuana stocks dramatically more volatile than the rest of the market. And that’s why they continue to show up at the top and the bottom of the performance list. Now speaking of canadian financials, Bank of Montreal is out with earnings and is trading lower in the premarket. Last time I checked it was down about a dollar in the US markets in the pre market and that wouldn’t be enough to give us a sell signal on Wednesday. We’re looking for a close below $128.76 to give us a sell signal. If that were to happen that would join Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC and the National Bank already on sell signals. The Royal Bank traded down into the channel yesterday. A close below $142.56 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday.

Joining the TD Bank already on a sell signal. Let’s finish off with a quick look at the commodity ETF’s. We saw a pop in crude oil yesterday. We’re back on a buy signal that can help the energy sector. Gasoline still on a sell signal. A close above yesterday’s high would give us a buy signal on Wednesday. Natural gas after trading in the channel ended the day closing above the upper channel line and higher on the day. No change in trend there. The GLD still on a sell signal and we’re trading lower in the pre market this morning. So no change there. No change for palladium on Tuesday. Platinum back on a buy signal. Not something I would chase. Remember the low risk opportunity came off the bottom of the panic zones. Pressure zone had formed. You’ve had a nice run up and then anything that you’re doing up here is high risk. That doesn’t mean it’s not going to work, it just means it’s high risk. And then last up, silver continued to move higher and is up pretty close to the recent high. But unfortunately it’s trading slightly lower in the pre market on Wednesday morning.

Okay folks, that’s all I wanted to cover this morning. We are looking for some selling on Wednesday and we may see a whole bunch of new sell signals as of Wednesday’s close and I’m certainly expecting a buy signal in the VIX. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, May 29, 2024