Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are currently trading below fair value. We don’t have any economic numbers coming out this morning, so not looking for any external stimulation. There is one bright spot this morning, and that is Eli Lilly, currently trading higher in the pre market. The stock has been quite on quite a run for the last month. Now, of course, everybody’s waiting for the Fed announcement, which comes out Tuesday afternoon. There’s been quite a reversal in bonds. Remember last week we had central banks cutting rates and that caused bonds to rise. You can see the 30 year bond is right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. Of course, if bonds are falling, bond yields are rising. The TLT is actually back on a sell signal after that big pop last week. Still above the upper channel line. No change there. Now, emerging market and junk bonds didn’t get as much response last week as we saw in the TLT and the XBB. And so they have pulled back. But of course, they did not pop as much as those two major bonds that we follow.
Now looking at the VIX, the VIX moved up yesterday looking for a close above 13.64 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. We saw Apple trade down yesterday. Remember buy the rumor, sell the news. Well, they finally announced AI and that caused the stock to fall. It is down in the premarket this morning. So we could see Apple end Tuesday on a sell signal with a close below $191.89. Then looking at Nvidia, which closed slightly higher yesterday, it is now trading after the stock split. We would need a close down below $111.62 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. If we can break through the 125 level, then $137.50 would be our next target to the upside. Now, the Dow closed higher yesterday. It’s still on a sell signal. Remember, the Dow does not contain Nvidia, which the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 do. We had a new all time closing high for the S&P 500 yesterday. What worked well, Constellation Energy was up over 8% on the day. Big loser last week. This week it’s coming back. We need a close on Tuesday above $216.79 to give us a new daily buy signal.
Now, Southwest Airlines had a big pop yesterday. If you trade this stock, if we go back to last week, our next price target was 29.69 and yesterday we closed at 29.70. Now our next mathematical target is 3125. But we do have the bottom of that open gap at 3078 as a potential area of resistance. So you got to lock in some profits yesterday, and hopefully the stock will continue to move higher from here. Now, what didn’t work? Well, Huntington was down sharply yesterday, down over 6% on the day. So certainly no change in trend there. We did see US banks and US Regional banks continue to fall on Monday. That’s probably not a good sign. Looking for support at those April lows. Then. Advanced Micro Devices was down on the day. It’s still on a sell signal. No change in trend there. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, new closing high, we’re trying to get to 468.75. That is our next price target for the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Crowdstrike was the big winner. It popped yesterday. If you go back to last week, our next price target was 359.38. And of course we found resistance there previously several times.
And then above that was 375. So what happened? Well, we traded up, hit the 375 level, closed at 374.57. So if you had an order in at 375, congratulations, it got filled. If you had an order in 359.38, the stock stock opened at 367.10. And so you got to lock in some profits up at that level as well. Now, what else worked? Well, lam research traded up to the previous high. So nice big update for Lam then looking at what didn’t work well, Illumina was down on the day. It was big. Winter last week pulled back, it’s still on a buy signal. Still closing at the upper channel line. What didn’t work? Well, it was Monster Beverages was the big loser. So no change in trend there. It looks like it’s heading towards $50. Then we’ve got Pepsi. Pepsi got bad news. It’s now the number three most popular drink in the US. So no change in trend for Pepsi, heading down towards those lows from back in March. Looking at the ishares for the TSX, 60 were up $0.06 yesterday. We need a close on Tuesday above $33.53. With everything trading down in the pre market this morning, not expecting that to happen.
Now, we did see money come back into commodities on Monday. Not enough to give us new signals, but we saw money come back into the energy sector. So Cenovus was the big winner. Shopify was up on the day. And our next price target was $87.50. Got as high as 87.70. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits there. Now, our next mathematical target is 93.75, and that is certainly a legitimate target. But we do have an open gap at 88.50 to get through before we get to the 93.75 level. Then looking at Wheaton, Wheaton was up on the day, so we had money come back into both energy and the precious metals, but again, not enough to give us new buy signals. And we’re looking at commodity prices falling in the pre market this morning. Now, what didn’t work on the TSX yesterday? Well, circle k is back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. We also have Telus back on a sell signal. So the curse of the telecom companies is still in play. The market still hates these telecom stocks. I don’t know when that’s going to change. If you follow this sector, you’ve got to continue to take the buy signals.
But unfortunately, it’s still a cursed sector at this time. Now, CAE was another big loser yesterday and it is still on a sell signal. So no change in trend there. Let’s finish off looking at commodities and we saw copper make a new low yesterday before reversing. So certainly no change in trend. No change in trend for the price of gold. And again, it’s down in the pre market this morning. And no change in trend for the price of silver. Crude oil was back sharply yesterday, is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. And we’ve got natural gas making a new high for this move, but not testing the previous high from a couple of weeks ago. And it closed down slightly on the day. So no change in trend for natural gas. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see a little selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
