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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are mixed. Dow futures are lower, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are trading higher. Now this was supposed to be my thumbnail this morning, but sometimes things don’t work out the way you want them to. And it was certainly turned out to be an exciting game, but a very disappointing game for some of us. Now looking at the VIX, the VIX is struggling to move higher here. But you know, we are coming into the month end. We are coming into some holidays next week, so not expecting a lot more downward pressure over the next few days. But the VIX is, looks like it wants to move higher. And of course, if it starts doing that, that tells us options traders in Chicago are getting nervous about the market. Now, what worked yesterday? Well, the, the big winner was Canadian energy stocks were the big winners, and what didn’t work were big cap chip stocks. They were the big losers on Monday, starting off with the Dow.

The Dow has been playing catch up with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 over the last week. It had a nice big update on Monday. What worked on the Dow, while Amgen was the big winner, followed by Goldman Sachs and Chevron, and energy stocks topped the performance list on most major indices yesterday. What didn’t work was the big loser, but as you can see, not much damage there. It is still on a buy signal. Now looking at the S&P 500, we’re looking for a close on Tuesday below $539.56. What worked well, Mosaic was the big winner. It is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close, joining Baker Hughes already on a buy signal and another energy related stock. And Apache is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. What didn’t work Resmed was the big loser, followed by Supermicro coming right down to the lower channel line. So a close on Tuesday below yesterday’s low would give us a new daily sell signal. And then Nvidia is back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Then we’ve got Qualcomm back on a sell signal as well.

Now looking at the triple qs and some of the stocks that led and were disappointing on the S&P 500 also made it onto the Nasdaq 100 list. We dipped into the channel yesterday for the first time in a month and closed below $472.85 would give us a new sell signal on Tuesday. Now Diamondback was the big winner yesterday, up nearly 4%. 3rd day of a buy signal for Diamondback. On the losing side, we had Sirius down over 8% back into the channel. It closed below $2.63. Would give us a new daily sell signal. We’ve got Marvell back on a sell signal and we’ve got Broadcom back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Now looking at the TSX, we had a big update on Monday. Not enough to give us a buy signal. The TSX was led higher by Africa oil up over 10%. Then we had Birchcliff up nicely on the day, back on a buy signal. What didn’t work? Well, it was a gold stock. Osisco down already on a sell signal. So no change in trend there. No change in trend for Energy Fuels. Already on a sell signal.

And we now have Celestica back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Putting in a double top, then looking at the TSX 60. We are back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close, being led higher by first quantum. Second day of a buy signal there. Then looking at Brookfield, we are back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close by one penny. Then Torbaline had a nice outside reversal day, trading up to the lower channel line. Then we’ve got Algonquin power back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. What didn’t work? Well, Cameco is already on a sell signal, so no change there. Then we had Shopify come down to the lower channel line for the third day in a row. A close below $86.87 would give us a new sell signal for Shopify on Tuesday. Then Opentext inside day for Open Text. So not a lot of damage there. Let’s finish off looking at commodity, starting with crude oil, which was positive on the day, trying to break away from 81.25. If we can do that, then 84.38 would be our next target. To the upside, natural gas had an outside reversal day yesterday.

If you were with us last week, we were looking to see if it could hold that uptrend line and the Flypaper channel. And so far that is working out. So let’s see if we can take another run at those recent highs then looking at the grains. You know, if you’re worried about inflation, we’ve got corn making a new low. Yesterday we had soya beans making a new low, and we had wheat make a new low on Monday. Looking at the metals, copper had a very quiet day yesterday. Still on a sell signal. No change there. No change for gold. We’re still on a buy signal here. A close below $2,326.20 cents would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Then looking at the price of silver, no change there. Bouncing off the lower channel line. So a close below 29.60 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Okay folks, that is all for Tuesday morning. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update. Never.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Good morning and welcome to Monday Mornings Market Outlook

In today’s video, Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.com provided a market update, noting mixed stock index futures with the Nasdaq leading lower, while commodities were trading higher. On Friday, the VIX made a new high before pulling back, and both Gold and Silver saw significant reversals but no new sell signals, with Gold and Silver trading higher pre-market. He mentioned no new sell signals for gold stocks despite a pullback. In the Canadian market, most actively traded stocks, mainly commodities, are on sell signals, with specific price targets for Cenovus, TC Energy, and others. In contrast, US most active stocks are mostly on buy signals, with Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon highlighted.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, June 24, 2024

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Presentation Overview
[00:01:11]: VIX and US Market Trends
[00:02:15]: S&P and Triple Qs Analysis
[00:03:22]: Mid Caps, Small Caps, and Micro Caps Update
[00:04:25]: Percentage of Stocks Above Moving Averages
[00:05:35]: Canadian Market Trends and Sell Signals
[00:06:40]: Bank and Energy Stocks Performance
[00:07:47]: Gold Stocks and Major Losers
[00:09:00]: Nvidia and Tech Stocks Analysis
[00:09:27]: Conclusion and Next Update

Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.com presents the weekly “Protect Your Portfolio” series, focusing on market trends using weekly charts to filter out daily noise. The analysis, which will soon be available to members only for $99 per year (or $79 with a coupon before July 1), highlights the key market movements without requiring viewers to sift through thousands of charts.

Key points include:

• The VIX, or fear index, for the S&P 500 rose slightly but didn’t signal a trend change. The S&P 500 and SPY reached new highs, while the Nasdaq’s triple Qs approached $500.
• Nvidia showed a bearish reversal, indicating potential future challenges.
• Mid, Small, and Micro Caps had minimal movements, with a notable sell signal in small cap stocks suggesting risk aversion among investors.
• The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day and 50-day moving averages shows a recent pullback, indicating a market that might reverse if it continues to drop.
• In the Canadian market, a sell signal appeared in the small cap ETF, while the TSX made a new low for the move, showing investor caution.
• Bank and energy stocks showed mixed results, while gold stocks remained stable with a slight increase.
• Major tech stocks like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia experienced minor pullbacks, with Nvidia potentially topping out.

Stephen concludes by noting only one major trend change (TSX Small Cap sell signal) and invites viewers to tune in for the daily market update on Monday. He encourages likes, shares, and subscriptions to the channel.

 

Good morning, everyone, and happy Friday. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with today’s morning market outlook for Friday, June 21, 2024. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out before the market opens. Stock index futures are down across the board, but not by much. We do have commodities mixed with gold higher, while crude oil is slightly lower. Friday morning. Well, yesterday the market hit another big round number and reversed the SPX hit 5500 and then pulled back, sitting right on our next price target. So you’ve had a chance to lock in some money up at that level over the past couple of days. Yesterday was a bearish reversal day and could mark the top for this particular move. The last time we had a reversal signal was this bullish reversal signal back in May, which marked the low for that particular move. Now the VIX ended the day back on a buy signal, so that is negative for stocks going forward. The Dow had a big update yesterday. Remember, it’s been out of sync with the rest of the market for a while now.

It was Salesforce was the big winner, followed by Chevron back on a buy signal, followed by IBM already on a buy signal, trying to break out above those highs from back in May. Then looking at the triple qs, they had a reversal day yesterday sitting right on our price target. So you’ve had a couple of days to lock in profits at the 484 38 level. I was expecting a move up to 500, but maybe 5500 on the S&P 500 is as far as we get at this time. The Mags ETF came down yesterday, still trading above the upper channel line. Now when we walk through the Magnificent Eight, you can see Apple still at the upper channel line. So not concerned about that stock. Amazon back above the upper channel line on Thursday. So no change in trend there for Alphabet. We’re looking for a close on Friday below $175, to give us a new sell signal. For meta inside day yesterday, still in the channel, looking for a close on Friday below $493.62. We’ve had a few days to lock in profits up here at the $500 level. We had one day where it looked like we might head off towards the next price target, but then quickly came back to the $500 level and we seem to be attached to that big round number at the present time.

No change in trend for Microsoft, still above the upper channel line. Now we had a big reversal day for Nvidia on Thursday and on Friday we’re looking for a close below $123.09 to give us a new daily sell signal. We traded through 137.50 yesterday, got as high as 140.76. So if you had an order in at 137.50, it got filled yesterday. So congratulations. Then looking at Shopify trading back into the channel in New York, looking for a close below $62.85 on Friday. And then on the TSX, we’re looking for a close below $86.66 to give us a sell signal on Friday. Looking at Tesla, still nothing going on here. Still looking for a breakout above $187.50. So far that has not happened. Now, a stock in the news yesterday, Supermicro, ran up and tagged $1,000 again and then quickly pulled back. So if you had an order in there up at 1000, it got filled yesterday. So congratulations. That was a bearish reversal day. So potential for a top for Supermicro at this time. Then looking at the SPY ETF, you can see we ran up to 550 and pulled back. Got as high as $550.12 yesterday before pulling back and sitting right on our price target.

And so you’ve had a couple of days to lock in profits up at this level. Now, what worked and what didn’t work? Well, most things worked yesterday, believe it or not. But some of the big cap tech stocks pulling back really put a damper on the market, especially Nvidia. But it was really just tech stocks. Real estate and consumer staples pulled back. The rest of the market was doing well. We do have the energy sector back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. We’ve got utilities coming back into the channel. No change in trend there. And then us financials. Second day of a buy signal for us financials. The big winner in the financial sector yesterday was cPay, which was up nearly 4% on the day. Back on a daily buy signal. Next up, let’s take a look at the canadian market. And not a lot going on here. We do have one sector of the market we need to keep an eye on. Looking at the Vanguard Canada ETF, we’re trying to hold those April lows while the ishares for the TSX 60 have already broken those lows. Now, I am always joking about what happens in the canadian market when the us market is closed.

I make jokes about the traders sleeping and everybody’s gone golfing. And you can see the volume for the ishares for the TSX 60 this week. On Tuesday coming up to the holiday, you can see volume started to drop off. And then on Wednesday when the us market was closed, you can see volume about one third of normal volume. So, yeah, most of the players left the building. And it’s, you know, on days like that, you shouldn’t take anything that happens seriously. You should wait for the adults to come back to the market before you make any big decisions based on what happens when the us market is closed. Now, the ishares for the TSX 60 are trying to hold our mathematical target of 32.42. If that breaks, then 32.03 would be our next target. And of course, you can round down to dollar 32. The Venture Exchange made a new low for this move yesterday and then closed slightly higher on the day. You know, the first thing I’m looking for is a close above the previous day’s high. That certainly didn’t happen on Thursday. Now, canadian bank stocks continue to move lower on Thursday, being led lower yesterday by the Bank of Nova Scotia.

At the same time, the TD Bank is struggling to hold on to those lows from back in early May. And so far it’s working out. We’ll have to see if that continues then. Looking at the Energy sector, yes, we traded higher yesterday, but not enough to give us a buy signal. That would happen on Friday with a close above $18.20. Then we do have a new buy signal for the gold sector. So let’s take a closer look at that. Yes, we’ve got the price of gold back on a buy signal. We’ve got the GLD back on a buy signal. Us gold miners and the GDX back on a buy signal. The junior gold miners back on a buy signal. We also have silver back on a buy signal. But the silver miners are just sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal. Now, we saw Barrick up nicely yesterday. We saw Agnico Eagle back on a buy signal. B2Gold traded up to the upper chain line, but we still need a close above $3.64 on Friday. There we’ve got Eldorado back on a buy signal. We’ve got Kinross back on a buy signal, and Newmont is on its second day of a buy signal.

So we’re seeing a little love there for the gold sector on Thursday and let’s see if it can continue the love on Friday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We saw a big reversal in Nvidia yesterday. It is down again in the pre market this morning. We’ll have to see if that continues. This could be the time and place where some of those big cap tech stocks start to roll over. Historically coming into the last week of June is not the most bullish week of the year, so this could be the time and place where we start to see some selling in those big cap tech stocks. Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice publicly will be on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, June 21, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, yesterday turned out to be a fairly quiet day and we’re expecting today to be extremely quiet as the us market is closed for the day. A lot of trading desks are going to look like this and then some people are going to use a sick day or a holiday to go golfing today. But we’re expecting volumes to be down dramatically on the TSX on, on Wednesday. Yesterday, Nvidia once again became the most valuable company in the world and that may affect this ETF and it may have to rebalance. And of course, Apple is the most widely held stock in the world and it may get rebalanced at other ETF’s as well. There’s Nvidia making a new high yesterday and still heading towards 137.50. Apple and Microsoft both pulled back yesterday and both had inside days, so no change in trend for those stocks. We’re still watching Tesla closely, still trying to get it to break out above 187.50. And so far it has not been able to do that on a closing basis. Then looking at the VIX, kind of neutral at the moment here, looking for a close on Thursday, about 13.28, to give us a new buy signal.

If that were to happen, that would be negative for stocks. Looking at Canadian leveraged ETF’s right now, we’re still long the bear ETF for the TSX. That, of course, is because we’ve seen weakness in many areas of the canadian market, including the banks and the commodity sectors. So we’re long the bear right now. You’ve had a couple opportunities to take money off the table, 6.25. We’re clustering around that at the moment. We closed at 6.25 even yesterday, so right on our price target. So you had no excuse not to take money off the table there. If we can take out last Friday’s high, then 6.45 would be our next target to the upside. I won’t go through all the targets for each individual one, but of course, we’re not involved in the bull ETF at the moment for the TSX, but we are for the S and P 500, which was up slightly yesterday, making a new closing high. And then there’s the bear ETF. We’ll get back to that at some point. Then, looking at the Nasdaq, we were up just two cent on the day on Tuesday, so very quiet trading for the Nasdaq on Tuesday.

And then, of course, for the bear ETF. Nothing going on there at the moment. Looking at commodities, we’re still long the bear ETF for the energy sector, waiting to get back into the bull ETF at some point. That’s also true for the gold sector, still long the bear at the moment and it some point we’ll get back in the bull ETF, but not on Wednesday. If you do get any signals today, I kind of wave them off and wait for another confirmation signal because a lot of the pros are not going to be involved in the market today. There’s the two x bull for crude oil and it’s looking pretty bullish. It took out their recent high from a couple of weeks ago, so that’s impressive. And there’s the bear ETF making a new low for this move then natural gas. We’re basically out of the market at the moment. We don’t have a buy signal for the bear and we don’t have a buy signal for the bull. So the bull came back on Monday, gave us a sell signal on Tuesday. It traded back up. So we’re looking for a close above $5.83 to give us a new buy signal for the bull ETF for natural gas.

Natural gas, you know, just a big warning signal. It’s one of the most volatile things that you can trade in any market. The average shoe range right now is nearly 10% and so that’s a huge swing between the high and the low each day. So a lot of people drive themselves mad trying to trade natural gas. Looking at canadian stocks and going through the most active list, you’re not going to find any trend changes from Tuesday’s trading action. Canadian Natural Resources still on a sell signal. New low yesterday for power for this move. Suncor moving up yesterday, still below the lower channel line. Baytex traded into the channel yesterday, so we’re looking for a close above 4.66. If that were happen to happen on Wednesday, I would just wait for the next close above the upper channel line. Bitfarms was down yesterday, just two cent on the day, so no change there. We saw Pembina close slightly higher yesterday. No change in trend. No change in trend for Cenovus new low for this move for TC Energy. So no change there then. Looking at Manulife trading back in the channel yesterday, the first thing you should notice when you look at this chart is we just put in a lower high and a lower low.

So that’s pretty bearish. And I wouldn’t be overly excited to be jumping into back into Manulife at this time. If you’re a short term trader, then bce new low for this move on Tuesday, the first gold stock to come up on the most active list is B2gold. So no change in trend there. And then the first bank is TD Bank. And you can see we traded slightly below the low from back in May, but we’re trying to hold the $74 level so we might be putting in a base here. We’ll just have to wait and see. But it has been a series of lower highs and then we just put in a lower low. So still looking pretty bearish there. But this is the time and place you’d expect the bulls to try to come in and take this stock higher. Looking at BlackBerry and BlackBerry is trying to hold 3.13. That’s our price target. And what do we close at? We closed at 3.13 yesterday. So our next target to the downside is 2.73. But I can imagine that there would be some psychological support at $3 if BlackBerry is going to continue to move lower from here.

Okay folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. It’s going to be a very quiet day out there. So I wouldn’t be overly excited about chasing anything on Wednesday. I’d let the pros come back on Thursday and see how they feel about the future of the stock market. Enjoy your Wednesday. It’s going to be very quiet. It’s going to be very hot out there. It might be a great day to go to the movies in the afternoon and enjoy the air conditioning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning. Things are fairly quiet right now. We do have NASDAQ futures trading up in the pre market, and I see there’s a bid into both Apple and Nvidia this morning. Retail sales numbers come out at 8:30 and then industrial production at 9:15. Now in this presentation, we’ll start off looking at the US market. We’ll follow that with a look at the Canadian market and then finish off looking at commodity prices. Now, the us market is going to be closed tomorrow right in the middle of the week. So I’m not sure how many people can extend that into a long weekend, but I’m sure some people are going to scoot away this afternoon before the market closes. Now, the VIX has been in the channel for the past couple of days. That, of course, is neutral. Close on Tuesday above 13.34 would give us a new buy signal that would be bearish for stocks. Now, it’s hard to be bearish on the stock market right now when you see the Magnificent Seven continue to move higher.

And so far the ETF is up over 36% year to date. Compare that to the S&P 500, which is only up 15% year to date, and you can see how much of an impact the Magnificent Seven stocks have on the major market. Now, we ran up and hit our next price target. So if you had an order up there, congratulations, it got filled and we’re looking to see if we can continue higher from here. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, we closed at 485 and change yesterday. There’s no reason why it can’t run up to $500 this week. And there we are, up over 18% year to date. Now, we hit a new bunch of new 52 week highs yesterday, a bunch of stocks that we follow closely, starting off with Broadcom, then Micron. We saw Microsoft hit a new 52 week high yesterday. Nvidia hit a new 52 week high before pulling back slightly on Monday. And then Taiwan semiconductors also made a new 52 week high on Monday. Now what didn’t work on Monday? Well, we’ve got Cisco, a Dow 30 stock down at a 52 week low. It closed one penny higher yesterday.

But can you imagine what the Dow would look like if they replaced intel and Cisco with some of the tech stocks that are actually winning right now? Hertz made a new low yesterday, 52 week low for Warner Brothers and for Paramount. We also had a 52 week low for Sofi and then a couple of ARK stocks. Unity Software I think is the 12th biggest holding, made a 52 week low. And then Zoom, another ARK holding, I think it’s the 9th biggest holding. Also made a new 52 week low on Monday. Now Tesla, people are talking about it. Yesterday it was up over 5%. And where did it land? Well, our area of resistance is 187.50. It closed at 187 44. So we’re still looking for a lows above that level. And it is trading down $0.30. Last time I checked in the pre market this morning. Now moving on to Canadian stocks, nothing pretty here. New low for the TSX, the TSX 60 trying to hold the previous day’s low. Then the new low for mid cap, small caps and micro cap stocks. Now looking at the financials, they had an inside day yesterday. Canadian banks had an inside day.

But the TD bank is down here at 52 week lows. And if we look back in time, you can see looking at this weekly chart that that is a multi year low for the TD bank. So not a pretty picture for that particular stock. We also saw BlackBerry make a new 52 week low. Looking at our price target, we’re trying to hold 3.13 both on the daily and the weekly chart. If we look at the weekly Flypaper channel chart, you can see that that is a multi year low for BlackBerry. When did things change? We’ll go back to the weekly Flypaper channel chart here in late 2021. That’s when things started to change for this stock. And of course you want to be buying the dips on stocks that are finding support in the flypaper channel, not stocks that are finding resistance in the flypaper channel. What worked yesterday? Well, there was 152 week high Cargojet ramping up nearly 3% on the day. So congratulations to cargo jet holders. Let’s finish off looking at the commodities and starting off with the metals. No change in trend for copper. New low for this move for copper.

Gold had a fairly quiet day, it was down $20. Hasn’t made a new low in over a week now. And we’re down in the pre market this morning, I think $14 last time I checked. No change in trend there. Fairly quiet trading for silver. Inside day for silver on Monday. Then let’s finish off with the energy sector. We’ve got crude oil coming up to the recent high, looking to see if it can take that out. Natural gas, unfortunately back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Now you’ll remember natural gas was trading sideways for a long time then we were looking for a close above the tether line that would give us a buy signal. What happened? We ran up to the 200 day moving average, came back down to the 50 day moving average, back up to the 200 day moving average. Right now, we’re holding the 100 day moving average and looking to see if we can hold that uptrend line. If we can hold that uptrend line, that would keep us in the Flypaper Channel and that would still be bullish for natural gas. Even though we’re on a sell signal at the moment, sometimes it’s not just how high a stock goes, it’s also how low it goes on the way back down.

So let’s see if we can put in a higher low here for natural gas. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Looking for a fairly quiet day on Tuesday as the US markets are closed on Wednesday. I’ll be back on Wednesday morning to take a closer look at the Canadian stock market. Enjoy the rest of your day and we’ll talk to you again soon.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures, except the Nasdaq are trading below fair value. Commodities are also trading down in the premarket on Monday morning. No major economic numbers coming out this morning, so it’s all about the stock market. Now in this presentation, we’ll start off taking a look at the us market and then we’ll finish off looking at the canadian market. The VIX traded up to the upper channel line on Friday. So looking for a close on Monday above 13.37 to tell us that the options traders in Chicago are changing their point of view. Now, what happened on Friday? Well, guess what? Technology stock still led the market higher. There’s the Tech ETF making a new closing high. New closing high for the Nasdaq 100 and a new closing high for the Mags ETF. Now looking at the magnificent eight. It’s still a mixed picture here, but we do have Apple clustering around the 212.50 level. We’ve got Amazon trading in the channel looking for close on Monday below $181.89. We’ve got Alphabet trading in the channel once again looking for a close on Monday below $175.47 to give us a new daily sell signal.

Meta had a quiet day on Friday, inside day. No change in trend there. No change in trend for Microsoft. We’ve got Nvidia heading towards 137.50 on Monday. The pros and the public looks like the pros are still in control and aren’t flinching just yet. Now looking at Shopify, Shopify has been on quite a run. We’re coming up to resistance in the us market at 68.75 and coming up to resistance on the TSX at 93.75. So let’s see if Shopify can punch through those levels on Monday. Then looking at Tesla. Tesla still treading water here. We’re looking for a close above this high over here. So above 187.50. We certainly ran up to it on Thursday and reversed coming down on Friday. So no change in trend there for Tesla. If we look at who’s in control, you can see the pros and the public are pretty close together right now. So nobody’s overly excited about going long or short Tesla at the moment. Now, there’s a major divergence in the market right now. And, you know, we’ve got these handful of big cap tech stocks that are ruling the roost right now. But there’s the Dow Dow still on a sell signal.

No change there the S&P 500 still on a buy signal. The equal weighted S&P 500 is closing below the lower channel line. So you can see that the overall, there is overall weakness in the S&P 500 right now. And then looking at the Nasdaq 100, the equal weighted Nasdaq is still on a buy signal. The next generation Nasdaq stocks traded down to the lower channel line on Friday. A close below $27.61 on Monday would give us a sell signal there. Now, this certainly looks like a risk off market with the majority of the stocks currently on sell signals. And there we’ve got the ishares for the Russell 2000 making a new low for this move. Similar situation for Small Caps and Micro Caps on Friday. Then looking at what’s still not working. The Energy sector made a new low for this move on Friday. Anything commodity related was sold off last week. So there’s the Metals and Mining eTF. Bank stocks are trying to hold last Wednesday’s low right now, but that may break on Monday. Now moving over to the Canadian stock market, not looking very pretty. The TSX made a new low.

The TSX 60 made a new low for this move on Friday. Notice that we’ve broken down and we’re trading below the April lows, so that’s not a pretty picture. We’re trying to hold support at 1281.25. If that breaks, then 1250 would be our next target for the TSX 60. And we’re trying to hold the 200 day moving average. Looking at the mid caps, they’re holding up better. The small caps are holding up better. But the Venture Exchange made a new low for this move on Friday. Still hasn’t broken down below the April lows. Looking at the Energy sector, new low for this move on Friday. Trying to hold the 270 level and trying to hold the 200 day moving average. Then looking at Financial stocks, they made a new low for this move, recovered, going into the close, trying to hold the lows from April. 382.81 is our current area of support. If that breaks, then look for a move down to 375. And again, we’re trying to hold the 200 day moving average. Now looking at the gold sector, still on a sell signal. Held up fairly well on Friday. Gold is down in the pre market on Monday morning.

And then looking at the Global Mining index, we made a new low on Friday. New low for the materials sector on Friday. Then looking at Infotech. Infotech’s one of the only things working right now. And yeah, Shopify had a great week last week in percentage terms it was Bitfarms and Hut 8 were the big winners. What didn’t work? Well, BlackBerry was down sharply last week and down another nearly 7% on Friday. Then looking at the telecom sector, you know, when I was a younger man, this area of the market was known for being for widows and orphans. It was a very safe sector to be in. Recently we made a lower high and now we’ve made a lower low. That is very bearish. Bell fell out of the sky on Friday. It is back on a sell signal as of Friday’s close, joining Rogers and Tesla already on daily sell signals. Okay, folks, that’s all I wanted to cover this morning. We’ve got quite a divergence in the market. Still. Those big cap tech stocks are attracting all the money and they keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger. Nobody is interested in the rest of the market right now.

And we’ve got bank stocks selling off on both sides of the border. That is not a good sign for the health of the stock market. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, June 17, 2024

 

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. with today’s morning market outlook. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. We do have commodities mixed, while crude oil is flat at the moment. Gold is up. $22 in the pre market. Now, there’s not a lot of news out this morning. We’ve got import prices coming out at 8:30. That’s not a big economic report. Yields were down yesterday again, but the overall market didn’t notice the VIX was down ever so slightly on Thursday. Things would change on Friday if the VIX were to close above 13.42. Now, it is still a tale of two markets. We’ve got a handful of tech stocks pulling the major indices higher while the rest of the market basically is trading sideways or lower at the moment. Now, starting off with the Dow, the Dow is still on a sell signal. No change there, still not a lot going on. We’ve got Salesforce leading the Dow lower yesterday. We’ve got Amazon coming down into the channel. So a close below $181.57 on Friday would give us a new sell signal.

Then Boeing back on a sell signal. What’s working? Well, looking at the S&P 500, it had a new closing high yesterday. Didn’t take out the previous high, but this is a new closing high. It was led higher by Supermicro. That was up over 12% on the day. Back on a buy signal. Huge day for Broadcom. And it was up over 12% on the day. And then looking at Arista, it has a new closing high for this particular move. And then what didn’t work, Paramount was the big loser on the S&P 500 on Thursday. Now, looking at the equal weighted S&P 500, we were actually down on the day and we are still on a sell signal. So that is the overall market for big cap stocks. Then looking at the tech sector, the QS made a new high and a new closing high on Thursday. We saw Nvidia continue to move higher, starting to break out above 125. Tesla. Tesla was a big winner yesterday, but lost most of its gains going into the close. Now, if you’ve been with me for any length of time, we’ve been talking about a breakdown of this recent low or a breakout of this recent high.

Otherwise we’ve been just treading water here for the past a month or so. Yeah, we did trade higher than that level yesterday, but we lost it all going into the close. Now Tesla is trading up slightly in the pre market this morning. We’ll just have to wait how and see how. It closes at 04:00 p.m. now, what didn’t work on the Nasdaq 100? It was Warner Brothers. So Paramount, Warner Brothers, both heading lower on Thursday. And that is a new low, closing just below the low from a couple of months ago. Now, looking at the rest of the market, the ishares for the Russell 2000 down yesterday, still on a sell signal. No joy for small caps or mid cap stocks. So the rest of the market struggling here. What’s working? Of course, no surprise it’s technology stocks were the big winners yesterday. What didn’t work was communication services and, you know, Discovery, Paramount. Those companies are in this particular sector. So we’re sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal on Friday. Energy stock still struggling here. We made a new low for this move yesterday, metals and mining. Anything in the mining sector has been hit hard over the past week or so.

And there’s a new low, and we’re starting to break down below. Below the low from back in April. Then looking at banks, I’ve been watching banks closely. They were down yesterday, not a new low. What really slipped yesterday was the Insurance stocks, and that might have something to do with what’s going on in Florida at the moment. Now moving on to the canadian market, the TSX made a new low for this move, still trading above the lows from April. Some things worked yesterday. SNC was up nicely on the day, so still on a buy signal, making a new high there, breaking out above the previous highs that we’ve seen over the past couple of months. Celestica back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Then Nextgen, no change there. It was up on the day, but certainly no change in trend. What didn’t work well on the TSX, it was. BlackBerry was the big loser on the day, followed by Alamos Gold and then followed by SSR mining. So no change in trend for any of those stocks. The TSX 60 moved lower yesterday, getting very close to the low from back in April.

If we break down below 1290, that would take us down below the April low. What worked? Well, you know, we had some stocks work, but no trend changes. So Canadian Apartments was the big winner, up a little over 1% on the day, but no change in trend. We have Cameco trading back in the channel. A close above 7441 would give us a buy signal on Friday. And then Dollarama was up yesterday. Inside day for Dollarama. No change in trend. What didn’t work well the energy sector was hit hard yesterday. Cenovus was the big loser. Then. We had First Quantum Mining still holding on to the recent low. Then tourbeline down sharply yesterday, and Canadian Natural Resources making a new low for this move. So no trend changes there. Looking at mid cap stocks still on a sell signal, small cap stocks still on a sell signal, and microcap stocks making a new low for this move on Thursday. Taking a look at the mining commodities themselves, copper, fairly quiet trading. No change in trend for copper on Thursday. Gold’s holding its own. It’s still on a sell signal here. No change in trend has not broken down below the recent low.

Then we’ve got silver making a new low for this move on Thursday. And we also see palladium and platinum both making new lows for this move on Thursday. Almost done this morning looking at Shopify on the TSX. We had an inside day yesterday, so if we start pulling back below 87.50, that would certainly not be a good sign for Shopify. Apple had an inside day yesterday, closed slightly higher on the day. We have now a new price projections. Our next price projection for Apple is now 225. Okay folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. It is really a tale of two markets. We’ve got a handful of technology stocks, mostly surrounding the chip sector, but Apple came to play this week as well. Tesla was up yesterday. Still not a trend for Tesla, but yeah, the rest of the market not doing well. That divergence is going to correct itself at some point. Whether the rest of the market starts to move up to chase the tech stocks, or if the tech stocks start to roll over and chase the rest of the market lower. Only time will tell. I think it’s time for the VIX to start moving up and the whole market to start moving down, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that develops over time.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. I hear it’s probably going to be hot in most places this weekend. So stay cool and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, June 14, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are mixed. We’ve got the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq making new highs this morning while the Dow is pulling back. Currently, commodities are trading lower this morning. Now, we do have PPI numbers and jobless claims coming out at 8:30 this morning, so they could certainly change the direction of the market. Now yesterday we were waiting for the Fed to speak in the afternoon, but it was really all about the CPI numbers that came out at 830 yesterday morning. That really caused the market to take off. Now the VIX came down and it is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. Things would change on Thursday with a close above 13.52. Now we did see bond yields come down sharply yesterday. That helped spur on buying in a lot of the mid cap small cap stocks on Wednesday. The Dow is still on a sell signal. Now it traded above the upper channel line during the day, but only eight of the 30 Dow stocks ended the day higher.

So it was quite a strange day. The big loser on the Dow is Nike, back on a sell signal. We’ve got Salesforce also down on the day, still on a sell signal. No change there. And Verizon ended the day down sharply. For Verizon, remember, volatility is all relative to individual stocks, but you can see it came down hard yesterday. It is back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, looking at the S&P 500 we popped yesterday. So making a new all time high, the big winner on the S&P 500 was Oracle, which you can see is up over 13% on the day. That is quite a move for Oracle. And then we’re looking at Skyworks. It was also up sharply yesterday, up over 6%. And the big loser on the S&P 500 yesterday was Excelon. It was down over 4% on the day, followed by Illumina, which is down 3.62%. So that stock’s really having a problem getting out of its own way after it had a big up move last week. And then Valero was the next on the loser list, down over 3% on the day, still on a sell signal.

No change there. Now the Equal Weighted S&P 500 is still on a sell signal, but it was up nicely on the day. Then moving on to the Nasdaq 100. Again. We gapped higher and made a new high yesterday, being led higher by trade desk, which was up nearly 6% on the day. Back on a buy signal. I certainly wouldn’t chase that stock up at these levels. Then looking at Autodesk, that was the next big winner on the Nasdaq, up nearly 5.5% on the day, but still on a buy signal, not really trending at the moment. And then we’ve got intuit back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, looking at the Equal Weighted Nasdaq 100, it popped yesterday as well. And we also had a pop in the next generation Nasdaq stocks. They are back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, when you take away the S&P 500 of the Nasdaq 100, yesterday was pretty cloudy day for the rest of the market. Here’s the Russell 2000. It opened above the upper channel line, traded higher, and then gave up a lot of gains going into the close.

Now, at the end of the day, if you just looked at how this particular ETF closed, it certainly closed higher, gapped higher and closed higher when the day was all said and done. That is also similar to the small caps and micro cap stocks. They gave up a lot of their gains during the day and closed lower than they opened. So that’s a very mixed picture. Now, in percentage terms, it was Home Builders were the big winners yesterday. But if we take a look at the Banks, they were also up on the day, but the banking sector actually closed where it opened after trading through the upper channel line and Regional Banks actually closed lower than where they opened, giving up gains that took them up above the upper channel line but bringing them right back. So no trend changes there. Now, Semiconductors continue to move higher. On Wednesday, the XLK ETF made a new high for this move on Wednesday. So congratulations. Anyone long those particular ETF? Now, there’s something bizarre going on with Apple this week. It continued to trade higher. Apparently it has something to do with ETF rebalancing. Apparently when Nvidia became a larger company than Apple, they were going to have to sell some Apple and buy some Nvidia.

They didn’t want to do that because they’d have to move billions of dollars of stock. And so apparently they’ve been chasing Apple this week so they wouldn’t have to rebalance the ETF. And Apple is now back as the second most valuable company yesterday after Microsoft, but ahead of Nvidia. So Microsoft continued to move higher yesterday. Nvidia actually closed slightly above the 125 level. So if you had an order in up there, it got filled yesterday. And Apple continued to pop. And if you had an order in at 218.75, it got filled yesterday, so congratulations. Now, the Mags ETF also put in a new high yesterday, up nearly 2% on the day. Next up, let’s take a look at the Canadian market. And the TSX traded higher yesterday, still closed below the lower channel line, giving up a lot of its gains going into the close. The big winner on the TSX yesterday was Canadian Western bank. And we talked about this in the pre market yesterday. The big loser was the national bank, of course the National Bank, buying, potentially buying Canadian Western bank. And then Laurentian was a big winner yesterday. So it looks like investors think Laurentian may be a takeover target.

Next big loser on the day was Dollarama, down over 4% on the day, and that is certainly a new sell signal for that stock. It had a nice run since the start of April. You’ve had lots of time to lock in profits along the way. Then looking at the TSX 60, looking like the TSX itself losing a lot of its gains going into the close. Still closing below the lower channel line. Now, we saw more strength in the mid caps, small caps, but unfortunately the micro caps, which were up on the day, did not close above the previous day’s high. So nothing new going on there. What worked yesterday was Healthcare and Infotech were the big winners. Energy was the big loser. Healthcare, the index is looking like that. There’s only a handful of stocks. Bosch was the big winner, up over 3% on the day, but not enough to give us a buy signal. Then looking at infotech, the big winner was Hut 8. Bitfarms doing its part as well. It was up over 7% on the day and still on a buy signal here. It drooped on Tuesday, but not enough to give us a sell signal.

And we’re looking to see if we can break out above the recent high. Now, Shopify continued to move higher yesterday. It is starting to trade above the bottom of the gap and through the 8750 level. So 93.75 is our next target to the upside. Then, looking at the energy sector, it was down yesterday. The Canadian energy sector is holding up a lot better than the US energy sector at the moment. And if we look at crude oil, it’s actually on a buy signal. Natural gas is on a buy signal. So there’s a little disconnect between the stocks and the commodities right now. We had Canadian Natural Resources closed lower yesterday, then Cenovus also closing lower yesterday. We also saw a pullback for Suncor just to $0.16 on the day. It traded up to the upper channel line but then pulled back and closed lower. So a close above $53.59 on Thursday would give us a buy signal for Suncor and then Baytex. Similar situation. Traded up to the upper channel line and then pulled back and closed down just two cent on the day. Looking for a close on Thursday above $4.77 to give us a new buy signal for Baytex.

Pembina making a new high for this move on Wednesday, so no change in trend there. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Once again, it looks like techs may lead the market higher on Thursday, but we do have PPI and employment numbers coming out this morning that could certainly change the direction of the market. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, June 13, 2024