Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures, except the Nasdaq are trading below fair value. Commodities are also trading down in the premarket on Monday morning. No major economic numbers coming out this morning, so it’s all about the stock market. Now in this presentation, we’ll start off taking a look at the us market and then we’ll finish off looking at the canadian market. The VIX traded up to the upper channel line on Friday. So looking for a close on Monday above 13.37 to tell us that the options traders in Chicago are changing their point of view. Now, what happened on Friday? Well, guess what? Technology stock still led the market higher. There’s the Tech ETF making a new closing high. New closing high for the Nasdaq 100 and a new closing high for the Mags ETF. Now looking at the magnificent eight. It’s still a mixed picture here, but we do have Apple clustering around the 212.50 level. We’ve got Amazon trading in the channel looking for close on Monday below $181.89. We’ve got Alphabet trading in the channel once again looking for a close on Monday below $175.47 to give us a new daily sell signal.
Meta had a quiet day on Friday, inside day. No change in trend there. No change in trend for Microsoft. We’ve got Nvidia heading towards 137.50 on Monday. The pros and the public looks like the pros are still in control and aren’t flinching just yet. Now looking at Shopify, Shopify has been on quite a run. We’re coming up to resistance in the us market at 68.75 and coming up to resistance on the TSX at 93.75. So let’s see if Shopify can punch through those levels on Monday. Then looking at Tesla. Tesla still treading water here. We’re looking for a close above this high over here. So above 187.50. We certainly ran up to it on Thursday and reversed coming down on Friday. So no change in trend there for Tesla. If we look at who’s in control, you can see the pros and the public are pretty close together right now. So nobody’s overly excited about going long or short Tesla at the moment. Now, there’s a major divergence in the market right now. And, you know, we’ve got these handful of big cap tech stocks that are ruling the roost right now. But there’s the Dow Dow still on a sell signal.
No change there the S&P 500 still on a buy signal. The equal weighted S&P 500 is closing below the lower channel line. So you can see that the overall, there is overall weakness in the S&P 500 right now. And then looking at the Nasdaq 100, the equal weighted Nasdaq is still on a buy signal. The next generation Nasdaq stocks traded down to the lower channel line on Friday. A close below $27.61 on Monday would give us a sell signal there. Now, this certainly looks like a risk off market with the majority of the stocks currently on sell signals. And there we’ve got the ishares for the Russell 2000 making a new low for this move. Similar situation for Small Caps and Micro Caps on Friday. Then looking at what’s still not working. The Energy sector made a new low for this move on Friday. Anything commodity related was sold off last week. So there’s the Metals and Mining eTF. Bank stocks are trying to hold last Wednesday’s low right now, but that may break on Monday. Now moving over to the Canadian stock market, not looking very pretty. The TSX made a new low.
The TSX 60 made a new low for this move on Friday. Notice that we’ve broken down and we’re trading below the April lows, so that’s not a pretty picture. We’re trying to hold support at 1281.25. If that breaks, then 1250 would be our next target for the TSX 60. And we’re trying to hold the 200 day moving average. Looking at the mid caps, they’re holding up better. The small caps are holding up better. But the Venture Exchange made a new low for this move on Friday. Still hasn’t broken down below the April lows. Looking at the Energy sector, new low for this move on Friday. Trying to hold the 270 level and trying to hold the 200 day moving average. Then looking at Financial stocks, they made a new low for this move, recovered, going into the close, trying to hold the lows from April. 382.81 is our current area of support. If that breaks, then look for a move down to 375. And again, we’re trying to hold the 200 day moving average. Now looking at the gold sector, still on a sell signal. Held up fairly well on Friday. Gold is down in the pre market on Monday morning.
And then looking at the Global Mining index, we made a new low on Friday. New low for the materials sector on Friday. Then looking at Infotech. Infotech’s one of the only things working right now. And yeah, Shopify had a great week last week in percentage terms it was Bitfarms and Hut 8 were the big winners. What didn’t work? Well, BlackBerry was down sharply last week and down another nearly 7% on Friday. Then looking at the telecom sector, you know, when I was a younger man, this area of the market was known for being for widows and orphans. It was a very safe sector to be in. Recently we made a lower high and now we’ve made a lower low. That is very bearish. Bell fell out of the sky on Friday. It is back on a sell signal as of Friday’s close, joining Rogers and Tesla already on daily sell signals. Okay, folks, that’s all I wanted to cover this morning. We’ve got quite a divergence in the market. Still. Those big cap tech stocks are attracting all the money and they keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger. Nobody is interested in the rest of the market right now.
And we’ve got bank stocks selling off on both sides of the border. That is not a good sign for the health of the stock market. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, June 17, 2024
