Good morning, everyone, and happy Friday. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with today’s morning market outlook for Friday, June 21, 2024. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out before the market opens. Stock index futures are down across the board, but not by much. We do have commodities mixed with gold higher, while crude oil is slightly lower. Friday morning. Well, yesterday the market hit another big round number and reversed the SPX hit 5500 and then pulled back, sitting right on our next price target. So you’ve had a chance to lock in some money up at that level over the past couple of days. Yesterday was a bearish reversal day and could mark the top for this particular move. The last time we had a reversal signal was this bullish reversal signal back in May, which marked the low for that particular move. Now the VIX ended the day back on a buy signal, so that is negative for stocks going forward. The Dow had a big update yesterday. Remember, it’s been out of sync with the rest of the market for a while now.
It was Salesforce was the big winner, followed by Chevron back on a buy signal, followed by IBM already on a buy signal, trying to break out above those highs from back in May. Then looking at the triple qs, they had a reversal day yesterday sitting right on our price target. So you’ve had a couple of days to lock in profits at the 484 38 level. I was expecting a move up to 500, but maybe 5500 on the S&P 500 is as far as we get at this time. The Mags ETF came down yesterday, still trading above the upper channel line. Now when we walk through the Magnificent Eight, you can see Apple still at the upper channel line. So not concerned about that stock. Amazon back above the upper channel line on Thursday. So no change in trend there for Alphabet. We’re looking for a close on Friday below $175, to give us a new sell signal. For meta inside day yesterday, still in the channel, looking for a close on Friday below $493.62. We’ve had a few days to lock in profits up here at the $500 level. We had one day where it looked like we might head off towards the next price target, but then quickly came back to the $500 level and we seem to be attached to that big round number at the present time.
No change in trend for Microsoft, still above the upper channel line. Now we had a big reversal day for Nvidia on Thursday and on Friday we’re looking for a close below $123.09 to give us a new daily sell signal. We traded through 137.50 yesterday, got as high as 140.76. So if you had an order in at 137.50, it got filled yesterday. So congratulations. Then looking at Shopify trading back into the channel in New York, looking for a close below $62.85 on Friday. And then on the TSX, we’re looking for a close below $86.66 to give us a sell signal on Friday. Looking at Tesla, still nothing going on here. Still looking for a breakout above $187.50. So far that has not happened. Now, a stock in the news yesterday, Supermicro, ran up and tagged $1,000 again and then quickly pulled back. So if you had an order in there up at 1000, it got filled yesterday. So congratulations. That was a bearish reversal day. So potential for a top for Supermicro at this time. Then looking at the SPY ETF, you can see we ran up to 550 and pulled back. Got as high as $550.12 yesterday before pulling back and sitting right on our price target.
And so you’ve had a couple of days to lock in profits up at this level. Now, what worked and what didn’t work? Well, most things worked yesterday, believe it or not. But some of the big cap tech stocks pulling back really put a damper on the market, especially Nvidia. But it was really just tech stocks. Real estate and consumer staples pulled back. The rest of the market was doing well. We do have the energy sector back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. We’ve got utilities coming back into the channel. No change in trend there. And then us financials. Second day of a buy signal for us financials. The big winner in the financial sector yesterday was cPay, which was up nearly 4% on the day. Back on a daily buy signal. Next up, let’s take a look at the canadian market. And not a lot going on here. We do have one sector of the market we need to keep an eye on. Looking at the Vanguard Canada ETF, we’re trying to hold those April lows while the ishares for the TSX 60 have already broken those lows. Now, I am always joking about what happens in the canadian market when the us market is closed.
I make jokes about the traders sleeping and everybody’s gone golfing. And you can see the volume for the ishares for the TSX 60 this week. On Tuesday coming up to the holiday, you can see volume started to drop off. And then on Wednesday when the us market was closed, you can see volume about one third of normal volume. So, yeah, most of the players left the building. And it’s, you know, on days like that, you shouldn’t take anything that happens seriously. You should wait for the adults to come back to the market before you make any big decisions based on what happens when the us market is closed. Now, the ishares for the TSX 60 are trying to hold our mathematical target of 32.42. If that breaks, then 32.03 would be our next target. And of course, you can round down to dollar 32. The Venture Exchange made a new low for this move yesterday and then closed slightly higher on the day. You know, the first thing I’m looking for is a close above the previous day’s high. That certainly didn’t happen on Thursday. Now, canadian bank stocks continue to move lower on Thursday, being led lower yesterday by the Bank of Nova Scotia.
At the same time, the TD Bank is struggling to hold on to those lows from back in early May. And so far it’s working out. We’ll have to see if that continues then. Looking at the Energy sector, yes, we traded higher yesterday, but not enough to give us a buy signal. That would happen on Friday with a close above $18.20. Then we do have a new buy signal for the gold sector. So let’s take a closer look at that. Yes, we’ve got the price of gold back on a buy signal. We’ve got the GLD back on a buy signal. Us gold miners and the GDX back on a buy signal. The junior gold miners back on a buy signal. We also have silver back on a buy signal. But the silver miners are just sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal. Now, we saw Barrick up nicely yesterday. We saw Agnico Eagle back on a buy signal. B2Gold traded up to the upper chain line, but we still need a close above $3.64 on Friday. There we’ve got Eldorado back on a buy signal. We’ve got Kinross back on a buy signal, and Newmont is on its second day of a buy signal.
So we’re seeing a little love there for the gold sector on Thursday and let’s see if it can continue the love on Friday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We saw a big reversal in Nvidia yesterday. It is down again in the pre market this morning. We’ll have to see if that continues. This could be the time and place where some of those big cap tech stocks start to roll over. Historically coming into the last week of June is not the most bullish week of the year, so this could be the time and place where we start to see some selling in those big cap tech stocks. Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice publicly will be on Monday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, June 21, 2024
