Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. with today’s morning market outlook. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. We do have commodities mixed, while crude oil is flat at the moment. Gold is up. $22 in the pre market. Now, there’s not a lot of news out this morning. We’ve got import prices coming out at 8:30. That’s not a big economic report. Yields were down yesterday again, but the overall market didn’t notice the VIX was down ever so slightly on Thursday. Things would change on Friday if the VIX were to close above 13.42. Now, it is still a tale of two markets. We’ve got a handful of tech stocks pulling the major indices higher while the rest of the market basically is trading sideways or lower at the moment. Now, starting off with the Dow, the Dow is still on a sell signal. No change there, still not a lot going on. We’ve got Salesforce leading the Dow lower yesterday. We’ve got Amazon coming down into the channel. So a close below $181.57 on Friday would give us a new sell signal.
Then Boeing back on a sell signal. What’s working? Well, looking at the S&P 500, it had a new closing high yesterday. Didn’t take out the previous high, but this is a new closing high. It was led higher by Supermicro. That was up over 12% on the day. Back on a buy signal. Huge day for Broadcom. And it was up over 12% on the day. And then looking at Arista, it has a new closing high for this particular move. And then what didn’t work, Paramount was the big loser on the S&P 500 on Thursday. Now, looking at the equal weighted S&P 500, we were actually down on the day and we are still on a sell signal. So that is the overall market for big cap stocks. Then looking at the tech sector, the QS made a new high and a new closing high on Thursday. We saw Nvidia continue to move higher, starting to break out above 125. Tesla. Tesla was a big winner yesterday, but lost most of its gains going into the close. Now, if you’ve been with me for any length of time, we’ve been talking about a breakdown of this recent low or a breakout of this recent high.
Otherwise we’ve been just treading water here for the past a month or so. Yeah, we did trade higher than that level yesterday, but we lost it all going into the close. Now Tesla is trading up slightly in the pre market this morning. We’ll just have to wait how and see how. It closes at 04:00 p.m. now, what didn’t work on the Nasdaq 100? It was Warner Brothers. So Paramount, Warner Brothers, both heading lower on Thursday. And that is a new low, closing just below the low from a couple of months ago. Now, looking at the rest of the market, the ishares for the Russell 2000 down yesterday, still on a sell signal. No joy for small caps or mid cap stocks. So the rest of the market struggling here. What’s working? Of course, no surprise it’s technology stocks were the big winners yesterday. What didn’t work was communication services and, you know, Discovery, Paramount. Those companies are in this particular sector. So we’re sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal on Friday. Energy stock still struggling here. We made a new low for this move yesterday, metals and mining. Anything in the mining sector has been hit hard over the past week or so.
And there’s a new low, and we’re starting to break down below. Below the low from back in April. Then looking at banks, I’ve been watching banks closely. They were down yesterday, not a new low. What really slipped yesterday was the Insurance stocks, and that might have something to do with what’s going on in Florida at the moment. Now moving on to the canadian market, the TSX made a new low for this move, still trading above the lows from April. Some things worked yesterday. SNC was up nicely on the day, so still on a buy signal, making a new high there, breaking out above the previous highs that we’ve seen over the past couple of months. Celestica back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Then Nextgen, no change there. It was up on the day, but certainly no change in trend. What didn’t work well on the TSX, it was. BlackBerry was the big loser on the day, followed by Alamos Gold and then followed by SSR mining. So no change in trend for any of those stocks. The TSX 60 moved lower yesterday, getting very close to the low from back in April.
If we break down below 1290, that would take us down below the April low. What worked? Well, you know, we had some stocks work, but no trend changes. So Canadian Apartments was the big winner, up a little over 1% on the day, but no change in trend. We have Cameco trading back in the channel. A close above 7441 would give us a buy signal on Friday. And then Dollarama was up yesterday. Inside day for Dollarama. No change in trend. What didn’t work well the energy sector was hit hard yesterday. Cenovus was the big loser. Then. We had First Quantum Mining still holding on to the recent low. Then tourbeline down sharply yesterday, and Canadian Natural Resources making a new low for this move. So no trend changes there. Looking at mid cap stocks still on a sell signal, small cap stocks still on a sell signal, and microcap stocks making a new low for this move on Thursday. Taking a look at the mining commodities themselves, copper, fairly quiet trading. No change in trend for copper on Thursday. Gold’s holding its own. It’s still on a sell signal here. No change in trend has not broken down below the recent low.
Then we’ve got silver making a new low for this move on Thursday. And we also see palladium and platinum both making new lows for this move on Thursday. Almost done this morning looking at Shopify on the TSX. We had an inside day yesterday, so if we start pulling back below 87.50, that would certainly not be a good sign for Shopify. Apple had an inside day yesterday, closed slightly higher on the day. We have now a new price projections. Our next price projection for Apple is now 225. Okay folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. It is really a tale of two markets. We’ve got a handful of technology stocks, mostly surrounding the chip sector, but Apple came to play this week as well. Tesla was up yesterday. Still not a trend for Tesla, but yeah, the rest of the market not doing well. That divergence is going to correct itself at some point. Whether the rest of the market starts to move up to chase the tech stocks, or if the tech stocks start to roll over and chase the rest of the market lower. Only time will tell. I think it’s time for the VIX to start moving up and the whole market to start moving down, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that develops over time.
Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. I hear it’s probably going to be hot in most places this weekend. So stay cool and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, June 14, 2024
