Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning. Things are fairly quiet right now. We do have NASDAQ futures trading up in the pre market, and I see there’s a bid into both Apple and Nvidia this morning. Retail sales numbers come out at 8:30 and then industrial production at 9:15. Now in this presentation, we’ll start off looking at the US market. We’ll follow that with a look at the Canadian market and then finish off looking at commodity prices. Now, the us market is going to be closed tomorrow right in the middle of the week. So I’m not sure how many people can extend that into a long weekend, but I’m sure some people are going to scoot away this afternoon before the market closes. Now, the VIX has been in the channel for the past couple of days. That, of course, is neutral. Close on Tuesday above 13.34 would give us a new buy signal that would be bearish for stocks. Now, it’s hard to be bearish on the stock market right now when you see the Magnificent Seven continue to move higher.
And so far the ETF is up over 36% year to date. Compare that to the S&P 500, which is only up 15% year to date, and you can see how much of an impact the Magnificent Seven stocks have on the major market. Now, we ran up and hit our next price target. So if you had an order up there, congratulations, it got filled and we’re looking to see if we can continue higher from here. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, we closed at 485 and change yesterday. There’s no reason why it can’t run up to $500 this week. And there we are, up over 18% year to date. Now, we hit a new bunch of new 52 week highs yesterday, a bunch of stocks that we follow closely, starting off with Broadcom, then Micron. We saw Microsoft hit a new 52 week high yesterday. Nvidia hit a new 52 week high before pulling back slightly on Monday. And then Taiwan semiconductors also made a new 52 week high on Monday. Now what didn’t work on Monday? Well, we’ve got Cisco, a Dow 30 stock down at a 52 week low. It closed one penny higher yesterday.
But can you imagine what the Dow would look like if they replaced intel and Cisco with some of the tech stocks that are actually winning right now? Hertz made a new low yesterday, 52 week low for Warner Brothers and for Paramount. We also had a 52 week low for Sofi and then a couple of ARK stocks. Unity Software I think is the 12th biggest holding, made a 52 week low. And then Zoom, another ARK holding, I think it’s the 9th biggest holding. Also made a new 52 week low on Monday. Now Tesla, people are talking about it. Yesterday it was up over 5%. And where did it land? Well, our area of resistance is 187.50. It closed at 187 44. So we’re still looking for a lows above that level. And it is trading down $0.30. Last time I checked in the pre market this morning. Now moving on to Canadian stocks, nothing pretty here. New low for the TSX, the TSX 60 trying to hold the previous day’s low. Then the new low for mid cap, small caps and micro cap stocks. Now looking at the financials, they had an inside day yesterday. Canadian banks had an inside day.
But the TD bank is down here at 52 week lows. And if we look back in time, you can see looking at this weekly chart that that is a multi year low for the TD bank. So not a pretty picture for that particular stock. We also saw BlackBerry make a new 52 week low. Looking at our price target, we’re trying to hold 3.13 both on the daily and the weekly chart. If we look at the weekly Flypaper channel chart, you can see that that is a multi year low for BlackBerry. When did things change? We’ll go back to the weekly Flypaper channel chart here in late 2021. That’s when things started to change for this stock. And of course you want to be buying the dips on stocks that are finding support in the flypaper channel, not stocks that are finding resistance in the flypaper channel. What worked yesterday? Well, there was 152 week high Cargojet ramping up nearly 3% on the day. So congratulations to cargo jet holders. Let’s finish off looking at the commodities and starting off with the metals. No change in trend for copper. New low for this move for copper.
Gold had a fairly quiet day, it was down $20. Hasn’t made a new low in over a week now. And we’re down in the pre market this morning, I think $14 last time I checked. No change in trend there. Fairly quiet trading for silver. Inside day for silver on Monday. Then let’s finish off with the energy sector. We’ve got crude oil coming up to the recent high, looking to see if it can take that out. Natural gas, unfortunately back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Now you’ll remember natural gas was trading sideways for a long time then we were looking for a close above the tether line that would give us a buy signal. What happened? We ran up to the 200 day moving average, came back down to the 50 day moving average, back up to the 200 day moving average. Right now, we’re holding the 100 day moving average and looking to see if we can hold that uptrend line. If we can hold that uptrend line, that would keep us in the Flypaper Channel and that would still be bullish for natural gas. Even though we’re on a sell signal at the moment, sometimes it’s not just how high a stock goes, it’s also how low it goes on the way back down.
So let’s see if we can put in a higher low here for natural gas. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Looking for a fairly quiet day on Tuesday as the US markets are closed on Wednesday. I’ll be back on Wednesday morning to take a closer look at the Canadian stock market. Enjoy the rest of your day and we’ll talk to you again soon.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
