Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are mixed. We’ve got the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq making new highs this morning while the Dow is pulling back. Currently, commodities are trading lower this morning. Now, we do have PPI numbers and jobless claims coming out at 8:30 this morning, so they could certainly change the direction of the market. Now yesterday we were waiting for the Fed to speak in the afternoon, but it was really all about the CPI numbers that came out at 830 yesterday morning. That really caused the market to take off. Now the VIX came down and it is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. Things would change on Thursday with a close above 13.52. Now we did see bond yields come down sharply yesterday. That helped spur on buying in a lot of the mid cap small cap stocks on Wednesday. The Dow is still on a sell signal. Now it traded above the upper channel line during the day, but only eight of the 30 Dow stocks ended the day higher.
So it was quite a strange day. The big loser on the Dow is Nike, back on a sell signal. We’ve got Salesforce also down on the day, still on a sell signal. No change there. And Verizon ended the day down sharply. For Verizon, remember, volatility is all relative to individual stocks, but you can see it came down hard yesterday. It is back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, looking at the S&P 500 we popped yesterday. So making a new all time high, the big winner on the S&P 500 was Oracle, which you can see is up over 13% on the day. That is quite a move for Oracle. And then we’re looking at Skyworks. It was also up sharply yesterday, up over 6%. And the big loser on the S&P 500 yesterday was Excelon. It was down over 4% on the day, followed by Illumina, which is down 3.62%. So that stock’s really having a problem getting out of its own way after it had a big up move last week. And then Valero was the next on the loser list, down over 3% on the day, still on a sell signal.
No change there. Now the Equal Weighted S&P 500 is still on a sell signal, but it was up nicely on the day. Then moving on to the Nasdaq 100. Again. We gapped higher and made a new high yesterday, being led higher by trade desk, which was up nearly 6% on the day. Back on a buy signal. I certainly wouldn’t chase that stock up at these levels. Then looking at Autodesk, that was the next big winner on the Nasdaq, up nearly 5.5% on the day, but still on a buy signal, not really trending at the moment. And then we’ve got intuit back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, looking at the Equal Weighted Nasdaq 100, it popped yesterday as well. And we also had a pop in the next generation Nasdaq stocks. They are back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, when you take away the S&P 500 of the Nasdaq 100, yesterday was pretty cloudy day for the rest of the market. Here’s the Russell 2000. It opened above the upper channel line, traded higher, and then gave up a lot of gains going into the close.
Now, at the end of the day, if you just looked at how this particular ETF closed, it certainly closed higher, gapped higher and closed higher when the day was all said and done. That is also similar to the small caps and micro cap stocks. They gave up a lot of their gains during the day and closed lower than they opened. So that’s a very mixed picture. Now, in percentage terms, it was Home Builders were the big winners yesterday. But if we take a look at the Banks, they were also up on the day, but the banking sector actually closed where it opened after trading through the upper channel line and Regional Banks actually closed lower than where they opened, giving up gains that took them up above the upper channel line but bringing them right back. So no trend changes there. Now, Semiconductors continue to move higher. On Wednesday, the XLK ETF made a new high for this move on Wednesday. So congratulations. Anyone long those particular ETF? Now, there’s something bizarre going on with Apple this week. It continued to trade higher. Apparently it has something to do with ETF rebalancing. Apparently when Nvidia became a larger company than Apple, they were going to have to sell some Apple and buy some Nvidia.
They didn’t want to do that because they’d have to move billions of dollars of stock. And so apparently they’ve been chasing Apple this week so they wouldn’t have to rebalance the ETF. And Apple is now back as the second most valuable company yesterday after Microsoft, but ahead of Nvidia. So Microsoft continued to move higher yesterday. Nvidia actually closed slightly above the 125 level. So if you had an order in up there, it got filled yesterday. And Apple continued to pop. And if you had an order in at 218.75, it got filled yesterday, so congratulations. Now, the Mags ETF also put in a new high yesterday, up nearly 2% on the day. Next up, let’s take a look at the Canadian market. And the TSX traded higher yesterday, still closed below the lower channel line, giving up a lot of its gains going into the close. The big winner on the TSX yesterday was Canadian Western bank. And we talked about this in the pre market yesterday. The big loser was the national bank, of course the National Bank, buying, potentially buying Canadian Western bank. And then Laurentian was a big winner yesterday. So it looks like investors think Laurentian may be a takeover target.
Next big loser on the day was Dollarama, down over 4% on the day, and that is certainly a new sell signal for that stock. It had a nice run since the start of April. You’ve had lots of time to lock in profits along the way. Then looking at the TSX 60, looking like the TSX itself losing a lot of its gains going into the close. Still closing below the lower channel line. Now, we saw more strength in the mid caps, small caps, but unfortunately the micro caps, which were up on the day, did not close above the previous day’s high. So nothing new going on there. What worked yesterday was Healthcare and Infotech were the big winners. Energy was the big loser. Healthcare, the index is looking like that. There’s only a handful of stocks. Bosch was the big winner, up over 3% on the day, but not enough to give us a buy signal. Then looking at infotech, the big winner was Hut 8. Bitfarms doing its part as well. It was up over 7% on the day and still on a buy signal here. It drooped on Tuesday, but not enough to give us a sell signal.
And we’re looking to see if we can break out above the recent high. Now, Shopify continued to move higher yesterday. It is starting to trade above the bottom of the gap and through the 8750 level. So 93.75 is our next target to the upside. Then, looking at the energy sector, it was down yesterday. The Canadian energy sector is holding up a lot better than the US energy sector at the moment. And if we look at crude oil, it’s actually on a buy signal. Natural gas is on a buy signal. So there’s a little disconnect between the stocks and the commodities right now. We had Canadian Natural Resources closed lower yesterday, then Cenovus also closing lower yesterday. We also saw a pullback for Suncor just to $0.16 on the day. It traded up to the upper channel line but then pulled back and closed lower. So a close above $53.59 on Thursday would give us a buy signal for Suncor and then Baytex. Similar situation. Traded up to the upper channel line and then pulled back and closed down just two cent on the day. Looking for a close on Thursday above $4.77 to give us a new buy signal for Baytex.
Pembina making a new high for this move on Wednesday, so no change in trend there. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Once again, it looks like techs may lead the market higher on Thursday, but we do have PPI and employment numbers coming out this morning that could certainly change the direction of the market. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.
Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, June 13, 2024
