Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, yesterday turned out to be a fairly quiet day and we’re expecting today to be extremely quiet as the us market is closed for the day. A lot of trading desks are going to look like this and then some people are going to use a sick day or a holiday to go golfing today. But we’re expecting volumes to be down dramatically on the TSX on, on Wednesday. Yesterday, Nvidia once again became the most valuable company in the world and that may affect this ETF and it may have to rebalance. And of course, Apple is the most widely held stock in the world and it may get rebalanced at other ETF’s as well. There’s Nvidia making a new high yesterday and still heading towards 137.50. Apple and Microsoft both pulled back yesterday and both had inside days, so no change in trend for those stocks. We’re still watching Tesla closely, still trying to get it to break out above 187.50. And so far it has not been able to do that on a closing basis. Then looking at the VIX, kind of neutral at the moment here, looking for a close on Thursday, about 13.28, to give us a new buy signal.
If that were to happen, that would be negative for stocks. Looking at Canadian leveraged ETF’s right now, we’re still long the bear ETF for the TSX. That, of course, is because we’ve seen weakness in many areas of the canadian market, including the banks and the commodity sectors. So we’re long the bear right now. You’ve had a couple opportunities to take money off the table, 6.25. We’re clustering around that at the moment. We closed at 6.25 even yesterday, so right on our price target. So you had no excuse not to take money off the table there. If we can take out last Friday’s high, then 6.45 would be our next target to the upside. I won’t go through all the targets for each individual one, but of course, we’re not involved in the bull ETF at the moment for the TSX, but we are for the S and P 500, which was up slightly yesterday, making a new closing high. And then there’s the bear ETF. We’ll get back to that at some point. Then, looking at the Nasdaq, we were up just two cent on the day on Tuesday, so very quiet trading for the Nasdaq on Tuesday.
And then, of course, for the bear ETF. Nothing going on there at the moment. Looking at commodities, we’re still long the bear ETF for the energy sector, waiting to get back into the bull ETF at some point. That’s also true for the gold sector, still long the bear at the moment and it some point we’ll get back in the bull ETF, but not on Wednesday. If you do get any signals today, I kind of wave them off and wait for another confirmation signal because a lot of the pros are not going to be involved in the market today. There’s the two x bull for crude oil and it’s looking pretty bullish. It took out their recent high from a couple of weeks ago, so that’s impressive. And there’s the bear ETF making a new low for this move then natural gas. We’re basically out of the market at the moment. We don’t have a buy signal for the bear and we don’t have a buy signal for the bull. So the bull came back on Monday, gave us a sell signal on Tuesday. It traded back up. So we’re looking for a close above $5.83 to give us a new buy signal for the bull ETF for natural gas.
Natural gas, you know, just a big warning signal. It’s one of the most volatile things that you can trade in any market. The average shoe range right now is nearly 10% and so that’s a huge swing between the high and the low each day. So a lot of people drive themselves mad trying to trade natural gas. Looking at canadian stocks and going through the most active list, you’re not going to find any trend changes from Tuesday’s trading action. Canadian Natural Resources still on a sell signal. New low yesterday for power for this move. Suncor moving up yesterday, still below the lower channel line. Baytex traded into the channel yesterday, so we’re looking for a close above 4.66. If that were happen to happen on Wednesday, I would just wait for the next close above the upper channel line. Bitfarms was down yesterday, just two cent on the day, so no change there. We saw Pembina close slightly higher yesterday. No change in trend. No change in trend for Cenovus new low for this move for TC Energy. So no change there then. Looking at Manulife trading back in the channel yesterday, the first thing you should notice when you look at this chart is we just put in a lower high and a lower low.
So that’s pretty bearish. And I wouldn’t be overly excited to be jumping into back into Manulife at this time. If you’re a short term trader, then bce new low for this move on Tuesday, the first gold stock to come up on the most active list is B2gold. So no change in trend there. And then the first bank is TD Bank. And you can see we traded slightly below the low from back in May, but we’re trying to hold the $74 level so we might be putting in a base here. We’ll just have to wait and see. But it has been a series of lower highs and then we just put in a lower low. So still looking pretty bearish there. But this is the time and place you’d expect the bulls to try to come in and take this stock higher. Looking at BlackBerry and BlackBerry is trying to hold 3.13. That’s our price target. And what do we close at? We closed at 3.13 yesterday. So our next target to the downside is 2.73. But I can imagine that there would be some psychological support at $3 if BlackBerry is going to continue to move lower from here.
Okay folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. It’s going to be a very quiet day out there. So I wouldn’t be overly excited about chasing anything on Wednesday. I’d let the pros come back on Thursday and see how they feel about the future of the stock market. Enjoy your Wednesday. It’s going to be very quiet. It’s going to be very hot out there. It might be a great day to go to the movies in the afternoon and enjoy the air conditioning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
