Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it is last trading day of the month. This day usually has a bullish bias to it, but this week has been a negative week for the market so we may not see a lot of buying on Friday. Currently the stock index futures are down across the board, but that is ahead of the PPI numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. That could certainly help change the direction of the market. Now we’ve still got the VIX on a buy signal. It moved higher yesterday. That of course is negative for stocks. The Dow continued to move sharply lower again on Thursday. We knew about Salesforce in the pre market and that helped move the Dow down sharply. But so did Microsoft. Microsoft rolling over on Thursday back on a sell signal. Apple still holding up. We’re still trying to hit $193.75. That hasn’t happened just yet. Maybe that’ll happen on Friday. Now in the after hours today we are looking at Dell and Dell is trading down, currently trading below the lower channel. Of course, these are all pre market numbers.
We’re waiting for the close before we do anything. If you’ve been trading dell, you’ve had several opportunities to take money off the table. So congratulations. If you chose to lock in profits along the way, you should just have a partial position left which you’ll probably have to exit on Monday morning. Looking at what didn’t work yesterday, well, technology was the big loser on both sides of the border. What did work were Canadian Banks. They were the big winners yesterday which helped push up the Canadian Financial sector. And then we saw US Regional Banks as big winners on Thursday from the us market. They were the biggest winners on the day. Still no change in trend here, but we filled the gap. So lets see if we can continue to move higher on Friday. Now looking at the Canadian Banks which have been in the news all week, Bank of Montreal collapsed the other day, small gain yesterday. Now in the pre market this morning, I knew about the Royal Bank. I didn’t know about CIBC which was the big winner yesterday. And then followed by the Royal bank. So big turnarounds for Canadian Banks on Thursday.
What didn’t turn around? Well, the TD bank, it’s still on a sell signal here. It was up slightly on the day on Thursday, but certainly no change in trend. Now looking at the TSX itself, it traded slightly up into the gap yesterday. So no major gains for the TSX overall on Thursday. Looking at the us market, the S&P 500 SPY ETF is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. That joins the Equal Weighted ETF already on a sell signal. And then what worked yesterday on the S&P 500, HP was the big winner, followed by Best Buy, which gapped higher yesterday. What didn’t work well, Salesforce was the big loser. But then and after that, it was serviced now, followed by Hormel, followed by Agilent. Those were the big losers on the S&P 500 from Thursday’s trading action. Now, the Nasdaq traded down to the lower channel line yesterday, did not close below it. So for the triple qs, we’re looking for a close on Friday below $451.20. And if that were to happen, that would join the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 ETF already on a sell signal.
It would also join the Next Generation Nasdaq stocks already on a sell signal. Now, what was interesting yesterday was the Russell 2000 Mid Cap stocks. We saw Small Cap and Micro Cap stocks all trade higher on Thursday. So a little bit of movement from big caps to small caps on Thursday. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, looking at commodities starting with copper. Copper moved lower yesterday. Already on a sell signal. Copper miners already on a sell signal. No change there. No change for the price of gold. It ended the day slightly higher on the day. We’ve got junior gold miners still on a buy signal. US gold miners on a sell signal right now. Canadian gold miners just treading water here. Remember, entering up at these levels, these are high risk opportunities. All the easy money was made back here off the bottom of the panic zones. Then looking at the price of silver, we’re still on a buy signal here. No change in trend for silver miner. For the Junior Silver Miners, they’re still on a buy signal. And then for the Big Cap Silver Miners, they are still on a buy signal. Looking at the price of crude oil, it pulled back into the channel yesterday looking for a close on Friday below $77.54. If that were to happen, that would join natural gas on its second day of a sell signal.
Hopefully, if you’re trading natural gas, you had time to lock in some profits. We hit some profit targets on the way up. Then looking at energy stocks themselves, the Canadian Energy sector is still treading water here. It looks very similar to it did the week before and the week before that. I’d be really interested in getting back in this market if it started to fall below the 18.50 level or if we took out this recent high from back in late April. But otherwise, all the trading has been contained in a very tight range here and we’re looking for an expansion of that range, either to the upside or to the downside. Now, US Energy stocks look totally different and after peaking in early April, we’ve made a series of lower highs and lower lows. And so that is a very bearish chart pattern. And we’re currently coming into Friday on a sell signal, having an inside day on Thursday. So no change in trend for us energy stocks. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We don’t know what the PPI numbers are going to do to the market on Friday. Typically, month end has a bullish bias to it.
That doesn’t guarantee that the market trades and closes higher. It does help buffer some of the downward pressure. So we may see some buying come in today, but probably not enough to change the overall direction of the market. Enjoy the rest of your day, enjoy your weekend and we’ll talk to you again soon. I don’t know what my weekend schedule is just yet, but I will certainly be back on Monday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 31, 2024
