Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com Well, we’re coming into a long weekend in Canada, in the US. We’ll have to wait another week before we get a long weekend, but, yeah, wishing everybody a happy Friday. So far, it’s pretty quiet out there. There’s no major economic numbers coming out this morning. Stock index futures and gold are slightly above fair value, while we’ve got crude oil trading slightly lower this morning. Let’s start off taking a look at some weekly charts I ran off this morning. These are not on the website. The VIX is down slightly for the week. I’m not expecting the VIX to move a lot lower than where we are now. What we are watching for is the VIX to trend higher. So don’t expect the VIX to continue to move lower from here, while the stock market certainly can continue to move higher. Now, looking at the TSX, we’re down slightly on the week. Inside week for the TSX, very quiet trading. Then looking at crude oil, looks like we’re pretty close to an inside week there. Crude oil is up a little over 1% for the week.
We’ve got natural gas up over 8%. And if it closes where it is right now, that would give us a new weekly buy signal for natural gas. Then looking at copper, copper continues to move higher. Some people call it a short squeeze. Doesn’t really matter if you’re long copper or long any of the mining stocks that are benefiting from rising copper prices. We’ve got gold up on the week. It’s up $10.50. It’s up $6 in the pre market this morning. Then looking at the Dow, the Dow is up just under 1% for the week. Now, the Dow hit 40,000 yesterday. So the reason to celebrate, of course, it was 19,000 just a couple of years ago. Looking at the S&P 500, we’re up nearly one and a half percent. We’ve got the Nasdaq up over 2% on the week, and we’ve got semiconductors up over 4% on the week. So all of that is looking bullish. Now let’s get back to some daily charts, starting with the VIX. The VIX is still on a sell signal. That would change on Friday if it were to close above 14.01. Then looking at the Dow making a new high yesterday, we had another day of a lot of bearish reversal signals.
And so we did thrust higher and we closed, in a lot of cases, lower. Than we opened. But we did not take out the previous day’s low. So yeah, we had a little profit taking during the day going into the close, but not enough to disturb the market. Then looking at the SPY new high there again we pulled back closed slightly lower on the day. Looking at the 3X SPY , we are down on the day again we ran up and got really close to 137.50. Got as high as 137.30. So, you know, if you’re dying to take some money off the table of of course you don’t want to completely liquidate a position, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to sell some at the open this morning. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, a new high yesterday, again a pullback going into the close. We’ve had several opportunities here on Wednesday and Thursday to lock in some profits at the 453.13 level. If we keep going from here, then 468.75 would be our next target. And of course the semiconductors were up yesterday and then came down in the close. Now I see the XSD hit its profit target of 237.50. So congratulations.
We didn’t hit our profit target for the SMH just yet. So again, you know, if you want to take some money off the table, you could do that this morning. But again, do not completely liquidate a position. Looking at the Canadian market, the iShares for the TSX 60 had a very quiet day on Thursday, an inside day and its third day of closing on the upper channel line. That is not significant, just a coincidence. But here we are treading water. Looking for a close on Friday below $33.63. We’re trying to get to $34.38. That’s our next profit target. Having trouble doing that. And then looking at the 2X Bull ETF, we’re looking for a close on Friday below $21.98. Looking at the Magnificent Eight, we’ve got a new high for the Magnificent 7 ETF on Thursday. We’re stuck here at 40.63. If we can start breaking out above yesterday’s high, then 42.19 comes into play. Looking at Apple, we hit a new high for this move for Apple on Thursday. We’ve got Amazon back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. If you’re not overly confident in that sell signal, of course you can wait for the next close below the lower channel line.
Certainly a move below the previous day’s low. That would be. Wednesday’s low would be certainly a sign of weakness. Then Alphabet trying to break out above the high from a couple of weeks ago. If we can do that, then 181.25 would be our next target for Alphabet. Looking at Meta, we’re struggling here. Still haven’t really filled that open gap. Looking for a close on Friday below $462.72 to give us a new sell signal. Then we’ve had a new high yesterday for Microsoft. For this particular move, we’re trying to get to 429.69. That is our next profit target. And that’s where we topped out back in March. Looking at Nvidia. Nvidia struggling here. We’re trying to get to $1000. We haven’t taken out the high from March just yet. If we can do that, then $1,000 comes into play. And unfortunately, no joy for Shopify. The stock is holding the low from a couple of days ago on both sides of the border. Let’s see if we can build a base here then. Looking at Tesla, we’re looking for a close on Friday above $178.41. Now, this is rather weird. We’ve had the pros in control since late April, but so far they have not been that interested in buying the stock.
They don’t appear to be that interested in selling it at the moment. The public has been more interested in selling than the pros. So we’re stuck here. Now, we gapped higher and tried to push out above the flypaper channel. That failed, we pulled back. Now we’re trading under the Flypaper channel. So it’s going to take some work to get up and over the Flypaper channel. And the market might want to come down and fill this gap down here first. But yeah, the pros are in control, but we’re not going anywhere now. We’re almost done. This morning I wanted to take a quick look at US traded ETF’s and what’s worked so far in 2024 has been Bitcoin up over 67% and then followed by us Marijuana stocks, currently up over 36%. Then we’ve got Semiconductors up over 32%, then followed by Silver up over 24%. Now, we don’t see any major equity ETF’s at the top of the performance list except Chinese ETF’s. And the Chinese market has been on a tear this year. You know, was the dog last year. And this year this particular ETF is up over 21%. So it certainly isn’t North America ETF’s or european ETF’s that are winning this year.
It is the Chinese market. I don’t like trading the overseas markets because they gap so much. And yeah, they can gap in your favor, they can also gap against you. So I don’t usually follow them or trade them closely, but yeah, the Chinese market is the big winner and this morning they came out and said they’re putting billions into the real estate sector so that sector could continue to be the winner in 2024. Now, oddly enough, looking at US based ETF’s, what’s not working in 2024 is a couple of the ARK ETF’s. The ARK Genomics ETF’s down over 19% and the ARK Innovation ETF is down over 14% year to date. So when it comes to equity, equity ETF’s, those are the big losers in 2024. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far. It looks like it’s going to be a fairly quiet day. For those of you in Canada, enjoy your long weekend. For those of you in the US, I’ll be back on Monday morning and we’ll take a look at how the week finished and where our break points are going to be for the next week.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 17, 2024
