Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value while commodities are mixed. Crude oil is up slightly while gold is down a little over $20 in the pre market on Thursday morning. Now, we are coming up to a three day long weekend that usually has a bullish bias to it. But to get to the long weekend, we have to make it through some economic numbers, including jobless claims coming out at 8:30 this morning. Well, yesterday was all about Nvidia, and Nvidia pulled back slightly yesterday going into earnings, but it’s popping in the pre market this morning, currently trading slightly over $1,000. So congratulations to anyone who is long Nvidia. Now, while Nvidia had a small pullback yesterday, it was the Semiconductors that were the big winners on Wednesday. And you can see that particular ETF making a new high for this move. Now, another stock that’s moving in the premarket this morning is Super Micro. It is on a buy signal. It has already been up and over $1,000 back in March and February and March.
And so it wouldn’t be too surprising if we took another run at those recent highs. Looking at Tesla, we talked about why I wasn’t excited about the new Tesla buy signal yesterday. Running into the moving average, running into resistance, running into the flypaper channel that hasn’t been undone yet. Yesterday was a small pullback, an inside day for Nvidia. So nothing conclusive just yet. Looking at the Dow transports, we’ve been talking about the Dow hitting 40,000, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the TSX, all making new highs. The Dow Transports has not made a high since back in February. We put in a lower high here in March, and now in May we’ve put, put in another lower high. So transport is one of the underpinnings of the us economy is not doing well at the moment. Some of the losers in this sector are FedEx, Old Dominion Freight and JB Hunt. Are all big losers at the moment. There is one big winner, Kirby, making a new high on Wednesday. Now, what didn’t work on Wednesday? Well, we had a large number of sell signals yesterday. Some of the notable ones in the US market, Consumer Discretionary.
And within that you’ve got Retail both back on sell signals. We had oil rollover yesterday, so we’re back on a sell signal for the USO. That put downward pressure on US Energy stocks. They’re back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, in percentage terms, the biggest loser yesterday was the Copper Miners, and they are back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Then, after Copper Miners, the next big loser was the iShares Global Base Metal ETF, still on a buy signal. We’ve also got the GDX trading down to the lower channel line yesterday, so close below yesterday’s low would give us a sell signal on Thursday. Then we’re looking at us Oil and Gas Equipment makers. They’re back on a sell signal. Then we had Silver Miners down on the day, but not enough to give us a sell signal. Then we had the iShares Material ETF down, and then we had the iShares Global Gold ETF down on the day. Not enough to give us a sell signal just yet. The price of Copper came down hard yesterday. A closed below 4.77 would give us a sell signal on Thursday. Gold traded down into the channel yesterday, looking for a close below $2,386.40 on Thursday to give us a sell signal.
And Silver, while it was down on the day, did not close below the previous day’s low and still well above a sell signal. So the silver is holding up much better than copper and gold at the moment. Looking at the major indices, starting off with the VIX, the VIX was up yesterday. Not enough to change things that would happen on Thursday if the VIX were to close above 13.27. We saw the Dow pull back close in the channel yesterday. The big winner on the Dow was Johnson and Johnson, while the big loser was actually dow itself. And then looking at the S&P 500, small pullback there yesterday. The big winner was first solar, followed by Moderna, which was a big winner on several indices yesterday.
What didn’t work?
Well, the target was the big loser, followed by Lululemon, and then Freeport. Back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, very small pullback there yesterday, Moderna was a big winner, and then we’ve got analog devices up over 10% on the day.
What didn’t work?
Well, Sirius was the big loser, making a new low for this move, followed by PayPal already on a sell signal, then moving over to the canadian market. We’ve technically got the ishares for the TSX 60 on a sell signal, but just very, very slightly. So if you wanted to hold on for another day to see if we get a confirming close below the lower channel line, you could certainly do that. Shopify was the big winner in percentage terms on the TSX 60 followed by Circle K already on a buy signal so no change in trend there. The biggest loser on the TSX 60 was first quantum and then followed by CAE. Caes had a wild couple of days. Big reversal off a new low, closing back up at the high of the day, but still there’s a big gap to make up above where we closed on Wednesday. Looking at the TSX Composite, not as hard hit as the TSX 60 itself. Bombardier was the big winner yesterday, followed by Ballard Power.
What didn’t work?
Mining stocks in general. Im gold was the biggest loser back on a sell signal. Weve got Ivanhoe back on a sell signal and then HUD Bay still on a buy signal here. That would change on Thursday with a close below $12.59. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. The VIX is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. Nvidia just looking over my shoulder, I see Nvidia’s trading at $1,007 right now. At the same time I see gold down $26. So you know, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the mining sector roll over up here. It’s had a great run. That run looks like it’s coming to an end, so just keep an eye on your stocks. Is the transport sector, is that the canary in the coal mine we need to be watching? Only time will tell, but we are coming into a long weekend, which is usually bullish. And then next week it’s end of the month. That is also usually bullish. So we may not see any major selling between now and the end of the month. Enjoy the rest of your day folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, May 23, 2024
