Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In this presentation, we’re going to take a look at some of the stocks listed on the Stockhouse Bullboards in the industrial and energy sectors. Now today, the Canadian markets are technically open, but it’s really an unofficial golfing day. Volumes are going to be very low today. And the reason for that is the us markets are closed. So we’re not going to have any adult supervision from the us markets. And I wouldn’t take anything that happens on Monday seriously. In fact, we’re not even going to print charts on Monday night based on Monday’s data. Now we’ll start off looking at the TSX itself. It’s coming off a new high last week and then ended the week down two thirds of a percent, still trading above the upper trend line. So not concerned about a weekly sell signal this week. Now, Thursday was a very bad day for the north american markets and the TSX actually ended the day on a sell signal. On Friday, markets came back going into a long weekend. Going into month end, markets usually have a bullish bias to them.
We did come back on Friday, had an inside day. So we’re still on a sell signal coming into Monday’s trading action. Now let’s start off looking at the energy sector, and we’ll start off by looking at the commodities themselves. We’ve got crude oil on a weekly sell signal right now. We ended the week down a little over 2%, which is not a big move for crude oil. If you connect the dots here, you can see that we’re working ourselves into a triangle. We recently made a lower high, which is bearish. But back in the fall we made a higher low, which is bullish. So those things basically cancel each other out. And now we’re looking for a breakout of this triangle as we are settling in on a weekly sell signal. Now, looking at a daily chart of crude oil, you can see we are currently projecting lower prices here. We were looking for a new rally to start and that really fizzled out fairly quickly. If you were with us last week, we ended the previous week on a daily buy signal, but that faded over the last five trading days. The pros are not in control at the moment.
We did have a bullish reversal signal on Friday. We’ve had several of them that haven’t really amounted to too much over the past couple of weeks. And on Tuesday, when the futures are open again, we’re going to be looking for a close above $79.12. To give us a new daily buy signal. Crude oil. As you can see, we haven’t broken down. Looks like we’re putting in some support here. Let’s hope that that holds if we want to see crude oil move higher and take a run back to the recent highs from back in early April. Now, on the other hand, Natural Gas has had a tremendous month of May. Unfortunately, we ran up and hit the 200 day moving average on Thursday and reversed, and then hit came down again on Friday, trying to hold the 100 day moving average and trying to hold the Flypaper channel. It would be kind of nice if we could find buyers here to take us higher from where we are right now. If we start slipping down below the Flypaper channel, that’s going to be very bearish for Natural Gas going forward. Now moving on to the stocks themselves.
Looking at the iShares for the TSX Energy Sector, you can see the early warning signal up there at the top, top of the screen. And since then, we’ve actually been just treading water here. If we look at the weekly right side chart, you can see we’re still on a weekly buy signal. So no change in trend. That would change this coming Friday if we were to close below $18.19. Now, looking at daily charts of the energy stocks, we are in neutral at the moment. And if look at daily chart of the iShares for the TSX Energy Sector, you can see after peaking in early April, we’ve just been treading water here. And so we are finding buyers down the 18.50 level. And so far that has been holding. I’d really like to see a move out above the high from back in April here. That would be the first sign something new is happening. Otherwise, the sector is just treading water. The pros are not in control at the moment, so that’s not helpful. Now, looking at the stockhouse Bullboards here, we do cover four of the six stocks listed here, and we’ll walk through those right now.
And none of them are looking very pretty at the moment. Looking at a daily chart of Baytex, we’re still projecting lower prices here. We’re coming in on Monday on a sell signal that would change if Baytek could close above $4.82. Looking at Tamarack again, we could continuing to project lower prices here. Tamarack put in another lower low this week. And you can see the Pressure Zone is starting to become elongated. We had an opportunity to find some buyers and move up, and that quickly fizzled out. So here we are. We’re coming in on a daily sell signal. Friday was a fairly quiet day, inside day for this stock. So the next a level we’re looking at right now is a close above $3.70. If that doesn’t happen on Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Then, looking at Athabasca, this stock is really treading water at the moment. You can see the Pressure Zone that formed. We were looking for a move up from this point, and it fizzled out fairly quickly. So that Pressure Zone is starting to fade away. Now, on a bullish note, we’re still holding the Flypaper channel here.
So investors are pretty happy with the value of this stock at the moment, but they’re not willing to put more money in. So they’re not sellers, they’re not buyers. They’re just treading water here. At the 100 day moving average, the pros are pretty close to taking control, but they haven’t done it so far. And again, you can see we’re treading water. We had a new sell signal on Thursday, inside day on Friday. So technically a close above $4.96 would give give us a new daily buy signal. But I’d really want to see the stock start to trade and close above $5.08. You can see since the middle of February, we’ve been in a trading range, and 98% of all trading activity has been between $5.47 and $4.69. The midpoint is $5.08. I’d like to see us get back over the midpoint before I’d get interested in this stock once again, veloura actually popped on Friday. So there’s the Pressure Zone. We bounced off the Flypaper channel. You want to see investors coming back and buying the dips, and they certainly did that on Friday. And so we actually ended Friday on a daily buy signal for this stock.
Now, the elephant in the room when it comes to the Canadian energy sector is Canadian natural resources. And this is another stock currently treading water. You can see a Pressure Zone started to form. This is where we were looking for buyers to come in and buy the stock. They did for a couple of days, but then nothing happened. When we look at the moving averages, you can see the 50 day moving average is currently acting as support. We’re still projecting sideways action at the moment. And you can see we are trading above the Flypaper channel, so that is bullish. It’s just not trending anywhere at the moment. You can see we’re coming into Monday’s trading action. We’re technically on a sell signal. Looking for a close on Monday above $105.13. I really want to see it start trading above 106.25. You can see that since the middle of March, most of the trading activity is between these two price targets and the midpoint is 106.25. And we’re still trading below it. So I’d really like to see a close above the 106.25 level now moving from the energy sector to industrials. And we’ll start off looking at the industrial index itself.
You can see on the weekly chart we have an early warning signal up here. We’re up at the top of the Panic Zones. We’re looking for low risk buying opportunities off the bottom of the Panic Zones where a Pressure Zone has formed. Any new buy signals that show up up here are high risk buy signals. This market is very overbought. It is currently on a weekly sell signal, but has been trading in the channel for the last couple of weeks. In the channel is neutral, so we’re on a sell signal but it is currently neutral. Things would change this coming Friday if this index were to close above 460.53. Now, again, looking at weekly chart, you can see that for the past few months we’ve moved up to the 468 75 level, down to the 437.50 level. It’s going to be key that we hold that level. If we look at a daily chart of the Flypaper channel, you can see that that level took us right down to the bottom of the Flypaper channel. So we are continuing to make lower highs here. We made a lower low. Now we’re going to have to see if that holds or not.
Looking at a daily chart of this index, we’re currently coming into the week on a daily sell signal, and that would change if we started closing above 454.28. Now, looking at the industrial stocks listed on the Bullboards we’ve got, we currently cover four of the six once again, so we don’t cover every stock out there. Some of the stocks that show up on the bullboards are too small for us or they haven’t been around long enough for us to provide technical analysis on that often changes over time, and a lot of these stocks move from the venture exchange to the TSX when they have become big enough and have been trading long enough. So starting off with the big winner of this presentation, and that’s Bombardier. Looking at daily Flypaper channel chart of Bombardier. What we’re looking for is for a stock to get caught in the Flypaper channel. That’s usually what happens if things are fundamentally changing. For a stock, it’ll start to break away from the Flypaper channel, and then the Flypaper channel will act as support in which investors come in and buy the dip. And that’s exactly what happened back in April, and the market bought the dip, and it started to head up.
And we’ve had a huge rally over the past month, and things would change coming into this week if the stock were to close below $76.27. And if that doesn’t happen, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. You can see the stock reversed on Thursday. So Thursday was an inside day. Friday was an inside day. So two inside days in a row. That is a stock just looking for new information. The pros are certainly in control at the moment. They don’t look like they’re interested in giving up control. When we look at a weekly price target chart, here’s the next two targets. We’re looking at 93.75 and then 106.25. And, of course, we can expect some psychological resistance at the $100 level, but if it can break through that, then 106.25 would be our next target. Then looking at Extro, this stock has been broken for quite a while. You can see it peaked last back at the start of 2023, and it has been heading lower ever since. You can see the last time we generated a weekly sell signal in April of 2023, and we’ve been on a weekly sell signal ever since.
The first sign that long term money is coming back in. This stock is going to be a weekly close. That is Friday at 04:00 p.m. above $0.81. Now, when we look at daily charts, you can see it’s the 50 day moving average holding us in check at the moment. And if we can start breaking out above that, you’ve got the 100 and the 200 day as possible targets. Again, we’re looking at a daily chart here, and you can see all the opportunities that have been missed. You can see opportunity, opportunity, opportunity, opportunity. The market just doesn’t want this stock at the moment. And right now, we’re treading in the channel. We’re currently on a daily buy signal. That would change with a close below $0.69. Now, I really wouldn’t want to be trading this stock. It’s obvious that long term investors aren’t interested in the moment, and it’s a lot easier to make money on the long side when you’ve got long term investors helping to support the stock. And so I’d really be looking for a weekly buy signal before trying to trade it on a daily basis. Now, the only positive thing I can say about this stock right now, besides it’s on a daily buy signal, is the fact that we recently put in a higher low.
So match that with a higher high and then you might have something starting. But right now, the only positive thing really is that we just put in a higher low. Then looking at Xtract, again this is a very broken stock. It’s clustering around $0.49. If we take out the recent low from a couple of weeks ago, then 39 and 29 come into play. The pros aren’t interested in taking control at the moment. We did have a bullish reversal signal a couple of weeks ago, but that hasn’t really amounted to very much, not a lot of follow through. To the upside side. We’re still trading and closing below the lower channel line. Things would change this coming Friday on a long term basis if we were to close above $0.60. Looking at a daily chart, again, a lot of lost opportunities here. We’ve got a nice open gap there. We’ve traded into the open gap several times. The pros are currently in control, but you’d think the gap would have been filled by now, but it hasn’t. So the first target is the top of that open gap, and just above that is $0.59. If we can ever take that out, then $0.68 would be our next target.
Above that. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re currently on a buy signal that would change with a close below $0.48. Again, not really interested in chasing this stock at the present time. I would really look for a move above the recent high here before I’d start chasing this stock. Next up, we’re looking at Air Canada. And Air Canada peaked a little over a year ago and fell sharply into the fall, recovered a little bit over the past couple of months, but ended Friday on a new weekly sell signal. You can see that we’ve been in a price channel trading up to the 2031 level and then down to 17.19. That’s contained most of the trading action for the past six months. I’d be looking for a breakout of that range, or a breakdown below 17.19. You can see we’re projecting lower prices here, and so really not a lot of enthusiasm for Air Canada at the moment. Looking at a daily chart here, we would get a new daily buy signal on Monday with a close above $18.85. Now, when it comes to industrials, the elephant in the room right now is Canadian National Railways.
That is the biggest cap stock in this sector. Looking at a weekly chart, you can see that we’re coming off the top of the Panic Zones. We’re on a weekly sell signal right now. We’ve spent the last three weeks closing in the channel, so that is neutral. Things would change this coming Friday with a close above $176.55. The pros are slowly giving up control on this stock on a weekly basis. You can see most of the price action for the past six months has been contained within the 168 75 up to 181.25. And we’re currently trading just below the midpoint so that is a bearish sign for the stock. Looking at a daily chart, we’ve traded up to 175 several times over the past couple of weeks, but have not been able to trade above it. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re currently on a daily buy signal that would change on Monday with a close below $171.64. Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation. Not a pretty bunch of charts there. Bombardier certainly outperforming the rest of the market at the moment. When you look at the energy sector, the market certainly doesn’t hate it at the moment, but isn’t that interested in it either.
And maybe that will only change if crude oil prices start to move up from here. We’ll just have to keep an eye on that. There’s certainly not a lot of enthusiasm in the energy sector right now. Hey, if you’re not golfing and you’re not watching the market today, why don’t you consider donating blood? It’s one of the easiest things you can do to help contribute to society and contribute to your local community. I’m up to my 60th donation. If you start donating blood, we certainly have a blood donors rewards program on our website that could earn you even a free lifetime membership. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, May 27, 2024
