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Morning Market Outlook 05222024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out in the pre market. After the market opens, we’ve got existing home sales and energy inventories that could certainly change the direction of the market after it opens. Now today is all about Nvidia. Nvidia’s earnings come out after hours today. The stock stock is on a buy signal. Made a new closing high for this move on Tuesday, but has not taken out the previous highs. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $904.86. Of course we’re expecting some volatility after the earnings come out. After the market closes, it’s still a very bullish stock. They bought the last dip and I’m sure they’re going to buy the next dip. Looking up from here, we’re still trying to get to $1,000. If we break through that, then $1125 would be our next target on our weekly charts. Now Tesla had a big up move on Tuesday and I’m not sure I would chase it here. We ran up to our next price target and stopped.

Ran up to the hundred day moving average and ran up into the Flypaper channel. So I really want to see more positive price action from Tesla before I would jump in. I think yesterday’s move was an overreaction, probably mostly short covering, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Now the VIX made a new low for this move yesterday. Looking for close on Wednesday above 13.41 to give us a buy signal. If we get a buy signal in the Vix we may also get buy signals in the Vix ETF’s. So you’re looking at the VXX or the HUV as possible opportunities if the VIX starts to move up at some point. Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we made a new high yesterday but unfortunately didn’t hit our price target of 34.38. We got as high as 34.26 and then looking at the two X ETF we’re trying to get to 23.05 got as high as 22.73. So in both cases we’re getting close. So far in the pre market both gold and crude oil are down slightly. So I’m not sure if the TSX is going to be able to hit those targets on Wednesday.

Looking at the Dow Diamonds small gain there yesterday. New closing high for the S&P 500 ETF, you can see the equal weighted ETF was actually down on the day, so it’s just a handful of stocks propping the S&P 500 up yesterday. That was also true for the Nasdaq 100, which made a new closing high. But the equal weighted actually closed slightly lower on the day. And the next generation Nasdaq 100 stocks also closed lower on the day. We’re looking at Semiconductors here. They also closed slightly lower on the day. Now, what worked, what didn’t work in the us market yesterday? Well, it was Utilities. Consumer Staples and Financials were the big winners, while Energy and Industrials were the losers. So these are defensive sectors. We’ve got utilities making a new high. Yesterday we had consumer staples having an inside day. No change in trend there and no change in trend for financials. What didn’t work? Well, we saw a small pullback for the Energy sector and a small pullback for Industrials. Looking at the Canadian market, it was Materials, Energies and Utilities were the winners. Healthcare was the big loser yesterday.

Looking at Materials, making a new high for this move on Tuesday. Then we’ve got the Energy sector back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at Utilities, there’s a new high for Utilities. So of course that’s a very defensive play to keep chasing utility stocks. What didn’t work was healthcare. And of course that probably has something to do with a Marijuana stock. Take a look at the most actives from Tuesday’s trading action on the TSX. New high for Suncor on Tuesday. No joy for Enbridge, still on a sell signal here. Then we had a small pullback for Manulife, didn’t close below the previous day’s low. Then looking at Cenovus, we’re looking for a close on Wednesday above $28.12. Then we had a small pullback for the Royal bank yesterday and reversal for new gold after making a new high. Then looking at Pembina inside day there yesterday, no change in trend. Then looking at Telus. Telus is struggling here. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $22.24. We ran up to our next price target of 22.66. So far that is holding us in check. And yes, the pros are in control, but they don’t look like they’re that enthusiastic at the moment.

Then looking at TC Energy, new high for this move. For TC Energy, new high for Barrick for this move. And then we’ve got Great West Life still on a buy signal here, closing above the upper channel line. We’ve got a wall of resistance up here here at 43.75 we took a run at that a couple of weeks ago and failed and hopefully we can take another run at that. If we can take out 43.75, then 44.53 would be our next target. Looking at the US most actives, we talked about Tesla earlier. Then we’ve got Nio trading in the channel looking for a close on Wednesday below $5.15 peloton rolled over yesterday. Back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at AMC. We’re just trading in the channel right now. A close below $4.05 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. And just a reminder, as soon as you get an order filled, then go back into your brokerage account and place your sell orders at your profit targets. Get them in right away. You have no idea what’s going to happen next and you don’t want to be sitting in front of the computer screen all day when volatility could start to expand.

The chinese car maker Xpeng had a huge update yesterday and then settled down just above the upper channel line there. So it is back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then Amazon’s back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. And we’ve got GameStop trading below the lower channel line for the last three days. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $21.94. Then we’re looking at JDCom trading in the channel. A close below $32.68 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal. We had a pullback yesterday from marathon. No change in trend. New closing high for Apple yesterday, getting very close to our next price target of 193.75. Then looking at Intel. Intel’s on a buy signal here, but having trouble at the bottom of the open gap. Then looking at Ford, Ford still on a sell signal here. No change in trend. Looking for a close above $12.43 on Wednesday. That would give us a buy signal. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far it’s fairly quiet out there. Expect volatility to expand after hours today. We might have to sit and wait for Nvidia’s earnings to come out before the market finds a new direction.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, May 22, 2024

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