Author: admin

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market right now, things are very quiet. They may not be quiet after 8:30 this morning. We’ve got consumer prices coming out. We also have retail sales coming out. Retail stocks have been on a tear for the last week and made a new high yesterday. We’ll probably see a shift in the bond market on Wednesday depending on what these numbers look like. We also have energy inventories coming out later in the morning and that could affect the energy sector. Now the VIX pulled back. It traded up into the channel yesterday, closed slightly lower on the day. Things would change on Wednesday if we were to see the VIX close above 14.32. Now the topic of shorting came up yesterday. Everybody’s watching these stocks that are being short squeezed at the moment. I never want you to be on the wrong side of a trade like that. I also heard this morning that copper has a short squeeze on at the moment and that’s fine. We’re already long copper, so we don’t care what causes it to move higher. We’re still long copper.

Now if you don’t want to learn how to short, you don’t want to take the risks. You certainly can’t do it in a retirement account. But what we can do is play the bull and bear ETF. So right now, most of the bull ETF’s are long. Certainly any of the bull ETF’s for the major indices are long at the moment. At some point we’re going to get a sell signal in the bull and then we’ll get a buy signal in the bear and we can make money if the market wants to head lower. So you don’t need to learn how to short. You don’t have to get involved in that at all, but you can still make money when the market is falling. Now if you do want to short a stock, we want to do it when we actually get actual sell signals in the stock. And if you are going to short a stock, you have to be willing to take the buy signals when they show up. Now you can either just exit the remainder of your short position or you can actually take that money and go long the stock. That is your option, but you have to be willing to take the signals as they come up.

Now a lot of people get screwed up when they short because they actually do it because they think the stock is going to fall. And there’s a very famous story of a hedge fund manager that wanted to short Herbalife. And he spent a billion dollars shorting herbalife. Not only did he do that while the stock was rising, he also spent $50 million telling the world why he thinks Herbalife should go down. And once everybody saw that he was doing that, other hedge fund managers actually bet against him and almost drove him to bankruptcy. At the same time, he could have probably just sat on his hands, not said a word. And Herbalife has not been a very successful stock over the long term. And you can see that was once trading up at $60, now it’s trading at $10. So, yeah, he could have made a lot of money with herbalife. He wanted to drive it down to zero. And I don’t know why he would do that or want to do that, but, you know, that was his, you know, that was his strategy, and it was a stupid strategy, and he paid dearly for it.

So we want our short stocks that are falling. We don’t want to think that they’re going to zero. That’s not the game. The game is to get in and out as quickly as possible and to follow the signals. Now, here’s an interesting one that came up yesterday. And I heard from a couple of people that play Plug Power. And what happened yesterday? Well, the stock gapped sharply higher at the open. And then gave up a lot of its gains going into the close. Now, before yesterday, here’s our price targets. And if we look up, 3.91 was our next price target. And if you look back, you can see that was a realistic target, as we were there back in March. And then above that, 4.69 would have been our next target. So, of course, once you get filled, you want to put orders in to sell at both of those levels or just below them. And what happened yesterday? Well, we actually opened up at 4.89. And so if you had orders in at 3.91 and 4..69, they would have been executed at the open. You may not have got the $4.89 price, but you would have got something up in that area.

And then those gains were deflated going into the close. And we actually closed at 3.44. So you would have given up all that money if you had not had your orders in ahead of time. So it’s very important to, once you get a fill, to place your profit target orders, get them into the market as quickly as possible and let them just sit there. So now you’ve got a remaining position in plug power. You can just sit there and wait and see what happens next. Now, we haven’t talked about Bitcoin or Ethereum in a while. The reason for that is both of them are still on sell signals and no change there. Most of the stocks in the crypto world are on sell signals right now. So if you’re looking at Bitfarms, you’re looking at Coinbase, you’re looking at Hut8. Microstrategy, still on a buy signal here. No change. It’s been just treading water for the past week or so. And certainly there’s possibility of a sell signal on Wednesday. Then looking at the major index, ETF, starting off with the Dow, the Dow was up slightly yesterday, didn’t take out the previous day’s high.

We’re still trying to get to $398.44. If we can do that, then if we take that out, then of course dollar $400 would be our next major psychological target. Then looking at the SPY, we’re trying to get to 524.61. We’re just a little more than a dollar away from doing that. So we could actually hit that on Wednesday. And if we can take that out, then our next mathematical target is 531.25. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100. Cha Ching. We hit our next target yesterday. So you got to take some money off the table. Then our next target above that is the recent high from back in March. And if we can take that out, then our next mathematical target is $453.13. Now, if you’re playing the equal weighted Nasdaq, we’re still waiting to get to $121.88 if you’re playing the next generation, we’re just a few cents away from hitting that target. And you might have actually hit it yesterday if you had your order in a little less than the $28.13. Now, if your long semiconductor is using the XSD, then we’re trying to get to 237.50 and haven’t got there just yet.

Looking at the Canadian market, the ishares for the TSX 60 are down for the third day in a row. Not major losses here. We’re still closing at the upper channel line on Wednesday. We’re looking for a close below $33.54. Looking up, we’re trying to get to $34.38. And so far we have not been able to do that. We did see energy stocks pull back yesterday, not by much, a little less than 1%. But we are back on a sell signal. So there’s a high there, a lower high, and now another lower high. So that’s looking pretty bearish for the Energy sector going forward. Now, that could change on Wednesday with the energy inventories coming out. We’ll have to see how that affects the commodity prices. Now we had Utilities pull back for the second day in a row and we had Infotech continuing to move lower on Tuesday. Let’s finish off looking at the commodity related ETF, starting with USO. No joy there. No joy for gasoline making a new low. But we did see natural gas move up yesterday, so cha ching. If you had an order in at 17.19, it got filled. Now there is of course a different look between the ETF and the futures contract.

So you need to follow the chart of the one that you’re trading. We do have the futures contract starting to break out above the midterm tether line there, so that’s bullish for natural gas. And you can see momentum is starting to shift, so that looks bullish for natural gas. We’ll just have to see how that works out going forward. The GLD is is still on a buy signal. Gold is trading up slightly in the premarket this morning. We had Silver make a new high for this move yesterday. No joy for Palladium. We’re still treading water here. We’re on a buy signal, unlike Platinum which made a new high for this move on Tuesday. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Waiting for those CPI numbers to come out and for the market to overreact to whatever the numbers look like. We’ll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, we’re getting pretty close to some upper targets on all the major indices, and we may be able to hit those today depending on how much volatility the market gives us after the news at 830. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures and commodities are basically flat at the moment. We do have PPI numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. That could certainly change the tone of the market. Now there is lots of action going on in the pre market on Tuesday morning. BlackBerry trading in New York is up over 26%. Tilray trading in New York is up over 15%. Both of these stocks are currently on buy signals in Toronto. Sunpower. I know several of our members are following sunpower. It’s up 14% in the pre market. We’ve got Home Depot out with earnings. It’s trading higher this morning, up another $6. Currently on a buy signal. Now, the VIX moved up yesterday to the lower channel line. A close above 14.49 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday. We saw a lot of bearish reversal signals in Monday’s trading action. Looking at the Dow Diamonds, it did not close below the previous day’s low. So that’s the first thing I would look for. It’s one thing to thrust higher and pull back.

It’s another thing to close below the previous day’s low. So while we hit a new high yesterday, we did see a pullback for the Diamonds. We saw a basically unchanged for the SPY, the SPY ETF inside day for the Nasdaq 100 inside day. For the Russell 2000. We saw the Small cap ETF make a new high before pulling back. So two bearish reversal days in a row. Again, we did not close below the previous day’s low inside day for microcap stocks. Looking at the Canadian market, the iShares for the TSX 60 just pulled back $0.10 yesterday. Cameco was the big loser on the TSX 60 back on a sell signal, as of last night’s close, we had a reversal for Nutrien, and we’ve got Restaurant Brands on its second day of a sell signal, so no change there. Now, looking at the Venture Exchange, we’re up at what seem to be new highs here, but it’s kind of deceiving. When we go back to a weekly chart of the Venture Exchange, you can see we’re still trading under the Fly Paper channel and looking to see if we can break out. If we could break out above the weekly Fly Paper channel, that could also give us a monthly buy signal.

And that’s something we haven’t had for a couple of years now. Let’s move on and take a look at the most actively traded stocks from Monday’s trading action. And this is a little deja vui. We’ve got AMC at the top of the most active list yesterday, and it was up over 78%. And of course, everybody’s calling that a short squeeze, and there’s no other explanation for it. There’s no takeover offer, and there’s certainly no major change in the movie theater business. So we’re up over 78%. We continue to move higher this morning. Now, we actually ended Friday on a sell signal. We closed at 2.91. You come in on Monday morning and you see that we’re going to open up at 3.52. There’s no reason for you to take that sell signal. And of course, it continued to move higher throughout the day. It’s actually up another 93% in the pre market this morning, trading up over $10 right now. So we went from 2.91 to over $10 in just two days. That is definitely a short squeeze. Now, I talk about shorting all the time, but I’ve got some rules. I don’t want to ever be involved in a short squeeze.

I want to short stocks that I want to own. So big cap stocks that I follow on a regular basis that I want to continue to own. Those are the stocks I short. I don’t short them because I don’t like them. I don’t short them because I think Apple or Visa or Goldman Sachs are going to go out of business. I short them because they go up and they go down. And so when they’re going down, why not make $ 5, $10 $20 while they’re going down? And then I’ve got that money allocated to buying them again. So, you know, I’m not, if I want to follow Apple, if I want to follow Tesla, it doesn’t matter, but I’ve got that money set aside. So when we get a new buy signal, I’m going to close the remainder of my short position if I haven’t already taken money off the table, and then I’m going to go long the stock. I want to short stocks off the top of the panic zones when most people are still bullish on the stock, even though it’s starting to move in the other direction. I want to short a stock when a right side sell signal has been generated.

That is a buy signal for a short position. I never short a stock because I think it’s going to go down or I don’t like the stock or, you know, I wish the stock ill will. I just do it because it’s part of the, the cycles of the market. Stocks go up, stocks go down. I just want to make money when they’re going down. I don’t think they’re going to zero. That’s not the type of situation I’m going to get myself into. Remember, gains are limited when you’re shorting a stock. When a stock is at $2.91, it can only go down $2.91. On the upside, losses are unlimited. As you can see, a stock that traded at $2.91 on Friday is now trading over $10. It can go to 20, it can go to 30, it can go to 40. Who knows how much these guys are going to squeeze the stock higher? But losses are definitely unlimited. So I want to short stocks that I don’t think are going to get taken over. You know, I don’t think Apple or visa or Goldman Sachs, I don’t think any of those stocks that I follow closely are going to get takeover offers anytime soon.

So, you know, those are the stocks I want to short. I don’t want to short penny stocks. I don’t want to short stocks that could be get a takeover offer or new management that could shoot the stock higher tomorrow. That’s not the type of shorting I’m getting involved in. And I’m certainly not going to be shorting AMC if I was going to short it. Off the top of the Panic Zones, early warning signal went off. The chart started to turn red. We got a Right Side sell signal. That’s the time and place I want to get out when it’s oversold, when you’ve got an elongated Pressure Zone here telling you that it’s broken. These are the stocks that get set up for short squeezes. And here we had another pressure zone. The chart started to turn blue. That’s the time in place where you don’t want to be involved in a short position. That’s also true for GameStop. GameStop has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks now. It was up to 74%. It’s continuing to move higher on Tuesday morning. Novavax was also up yesterday, up another 47, 48% on the day.

So that one’s continuing to move higher in the pre market this morning. Now Nio is still on a buy signal. No change there. No change for Apple. Try to hit 187.50. If we can clear that, then 193.75 comes into play. No joy for Tesla. Still looking for a close above $179.04 on Tuesday. We still have Rivian on a buy signal. No change there. Ford still on a sell signal, trading in the channel once again, a close above $12.48 would give us a new buy signal. Now we talked about Ford recently, the fact that we are projecting lower prices here. But you’ve got to take into account any previous areas of support, and we’re certainly looking at that at the moment. Still holding $12. Some people are looking at a possible head and shoulders here that would certainly come into play if we broke the dollar twelve level and started moving lower. Of course, before we get down to this projection down here, there’s also another level of support just below, below $11. So that hasn’t come into play yet. Neither has our projection. We’re still holding $12. Now, Sofi traded up through the upper channel line.

A close above 7.21 would give us a buy signal. Would I take that? No, absolutely not. So far, still a very weak looking stock. We made a high here, lower high, a lower low, lower low, lower high, lower high, lower low. And the last two buy signals failed very quickly. So not a stock I’m interested. Compare that recent pullback in Sofi to this one soundhound. I had a nice down move for a month or so and then started to move back up. So when you get down here, you got to figure most of the people that hate the stock have had the opportunity to sell. And now you’re looking to see if the fans can come back. And so far that looks like it’s the case. We had an inside day yesterday. We had lots of inside days on Monday. Those are days of indecision. Traders probably waiting to see how the PPI numbers look this morning. Then intel. Intel might actually walk itself into a buy signal. Channel is continuing to move lower. Intel’s continuing to move sideways. So we may see a buy signal here. Would I take it? No, I’d rather follow the winners and buy them on a pullback than chasing something like Intel, a stock that nobody wants at the present time.

Then moving on to the Canadian market there we’ve got Enbridge, an inside day on Monday. So no change in trend there. A little reversal for Manulife. Manulife. We were looking for a move up to 34.38 and then 35.94 last week and we’ve almost got to 35.94. So we’re trying to. Obviously that is a level of resistance and we’ve got sellers coming in just below that. And the high yesterday was actually 35.72. So hoping if we can tag that on Tuesday, that would be great. But otherwise it’s certainly had a nice run over the past couple of weeks looking at Cenovus treading water up here. No change in trend. We’ve got a new high for the Royal Bank heading towards the top of our projected trading range on the daily charts of 143.75. If we take that out, then 150 would certainly come into play. No joy for ARC still treading water up here. Again, I’m not really interested in chasing a lot of these resource stocks that are already up at the top of the panic zones. That includes Suncor on a buy signal right now. No change in trend. No change in trend for Baytex making a new low for this move on Monday and a new low for Shopify.

Unfortunately, we also saw a new low for bit farms yesterday and we’ve got Kinross up there at the $10.50 level trying to break out through it. Look at the big updates we had on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday very quiet, quiet day. Monday, very quiet day. So looking to see if we can punch out above 10.50 for Kinross. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Still quiet out there in the pre market this morning, waiting for those PPI numbers to come out and tell us which way the market is going to go next. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it’s the day after Mother’s Day, and that usually has a bullish bias to it. And so far, stock index futures are trading above fair value. Commodities are mixed with gold down about $30 in the pre market, while crude oil and natural gas are up slightly on Monday morning. Let’s start off looking at a weekly chart of the VIX. And we’re on our second weekly sell signal here and will remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 16.86 this coming Friday at 04:00 p.m. Now looking at a daily chart of the VIX. If you’re a short term trader, you can remain bullish on Monday. The VIX made a new low on Friday, and coming into Monday, our upper channel line is up there at 14.77. And if we don’t close, close above that on Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now, just a heads up, the VIX has come down to an area where it’s found support before. That does not mean the VIX is going to turn around on a dime.

We may stay down at this level for who knows how long. It’s obviously a place where options traders feel comfortable. It’s essentially fair value for options, and so we could be down at this level for quite a while. And the stock market remains positive. We’re not looking for a low in the VIX as a sign of anything. What we’re looking for is upward momentum in the VIX that generates a buy signal. That’s what we’re looking for. The fact that we’re down here and we’re trading sideways, we’re treading water. We don’t make lower lows. That’s not a sign of anything. Options traders seem very comfortable about the future of the stock market at the moment, and that’s the only thing we can gleam from this. And of course, the first thing we’ll be looking for is a breakout to the upside. That’ll be the first warning sign that the stock market may be about to head lower. So don’t be concerned about the VIX making a new low or struggling to make lower lows at this point. That’s not a sign of anything. We’re looking for a buy signal, and we’re certainly not seeing that on Monday morning.

Now moving on to the major indices, the Dow is back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday’s close. Looking at a daily chart of the Dow Diamonds, you can see we had a really powerful week last week and we moved right back up towards the highs from back in March. Our next mathematical target is $398.44. That’s where we topped out back in March. So we’ll be looking to see what the market does at that level and see if it can punch through and head up towards $400. And then $406.25 would be our next targets. Above that, the SPY is back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. You can see the nice run it had last week heading back up towards the previous highs. Now, our next mathematical target is $531.25, but you can see we stopped out at $524.61 back in March. And so that will be our next target. We’re getting pretty close to that coming into Monday. We’re just a few dollars away from that. Now, looking at the Nasdaq 100, it barely generated a weekly buy signal on Friday. And you can see the week we had last week for the triple Q’S.

Our next mathematical target is $445.31. We got as high as $444.31 on Friday. And then the recent high was up there at $449.34. If we can take that out, that should take us up to $453.13, which is the top of our projected range on the daily charts. But of course not on the weekly charts. Now, it’s interesting to note that the equal weighted Nasdaq and the next generation Nasdaq stocks have not gotten back on a buy signal yet. So that tells us it’s those big cap tech stocks that we’ve been following are the reason that the triple Q’s generated a weekly buy signal and the other major indices did not. Now, looking at the canadian market, there’s the ishares for the TSX 60 making a new high last week. And as you can see, while the US market did see some weakness previously, over the past month, the Canadian market saw weakness, but not enough to generate a weekly sell signal. That has a lot to do with just a couple of sectors and we’ll look at those in a second. We had a bearish reversal day on Friday, but didn’t close below the previous days low after making a new high on Friday.

So a little selling going into the weekend. Our next target on the daily charts is 34.38, and we may get to hit that this week. Now, what’s been working for the TSX, as opposed to the US market, of course, has been commodities. The best performing sector so far this year is the gold sector, up 23.55%. And then we’ve got energy up 22.26% so far this year. Last week was an inside week for the energy sector. If we look at the top performing stocks on the TSX 60 so far this year, you can see it’s heavily weighted in commodity related stocks. You’ve got mining, mining, energy, mining, energy, energy, mining. So as you can see, it’s been all about commodities in 2024. What hasn’t worked? Well, the telecom stocks are still down on the year, 8.24%. And then we’ve got information technology stocks down 3.59%. Now, the biggest loser on the TSX 60 so far this year is Open Text, down over 25%, followed by Shopify, down nearly 22% so far this year. And you can see most of those losses came in the last week. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, taking a look at the world of commodities.

And we’ve got crude oil on its second week of a weekly sell signal. We were up slightly on the week, $.48 and change, so no major trend there. As you can see, the pros are starting to give up control on a weekly basis. $75 should act as support. If that breaks, then $68.75 would be our next target. Moving over to the daily chart, you can see the pros did give up control on a short term basis. We had a bullish reversal day on Wednesday and so far we’re holding that. We haven’t broken that low just yet. Looking up, we need a close on Monday above $80.31 to give us a new daily buy signal for crude oil. Looking at natural gas, we’re looking for a weekly close above $2.58. We are on a daily buy signal and I suggested people wave that off until we got at least a midterm buy signal. So the midterm buy signal, the weekly buy signal, looks like they’re going to come in at the same spot. And so far that hasn’t happened just yet. So we have had several short term buy signals in natural gas that faded fairly quickly.

And I’m not sure if this is going to be another one right now, but I want to give the market a little more breathing room before I jump in with both feet. Let’s finish off looking at the mining sector. And copper made a new high for this move last week. Looking at a weekly chart here. We’re stuck up here at $468.75. If we can start breaking out above that, then that takes us up to $500 and that is certainly doable. We were there back in early 2023 looking at who’s in control, the pros certainly look like they still want to be very bullish on copper. Looking at a daily chart of copper, we did trade down to the lower channel line for a few days, but did not close below it on Monday, we’re looking for a close below $451.35 to give us a new daily sell signal for copper. Looking at the price of gold, it ended the week up $68.40. It’s down 28 $30 in the pre market this morning. That’s certainly not enough to scare anybody. We’re trying to get up to $2,500 if we can take out the recent high from a month ago.

Looking at who’s in control on the daily charts, the pros gave up control. We had short term sell signal. We came back on a buy signal on Friday. So on Friday we were up $34.70. This morning we’re down about $30 last time I checked. So that would not be enough to give us a new daily sell signal. So if you’re bullish on gold, getting in at the open on Monday might be a good thing, as long as you’re willing to get out on a daily close below $2,312.90. Looking at the price of silver, silver had a nice big up week last week, up nearly 7% on the week. We tapped the $29.69 level a month ago and we’re looking to see if we can take that out. Of course, the next psychological target would be $30 and if we can take that out, then $31.25 would come into play. We are stuck in a range here. We’ve traded up to $29.69, traded down to $26.56. That’s where 90% of our trading activity has been since the start of April. Now we’re looking to see if we can break out or break down outside of that trading range coming into Monday’s trading action.

If you’re trading silver futures contracts, we would be sellers if we close below $27.10 on Monday. Not expecting that to happen from what we’re seeing in the premarket on Monday morning. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a wonderful day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, May 13, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it seems to be a happy Friday. We’ve got stock index futures and commodities trading above fair value. We’ve got gold up over $40 in the premarket this morning. So it looks like we’re going to have a happy Friday. We’ll start off taking a look at some things happening in the pre market. We’ll move on to some weekly charts that I just printed off this morning and then the daily charts. And we’ll end up taking a quick look at the energy sector. I’m going to come back on the weekend and take a look at the gold sector starting off in the pre market. Novavax has some news out this morning, and the stock is up 181% at the present time. So a dollar four stock moving up over $12. That’s quite a move. It’s not a stock I’ve ever traded. If you own it, congratulations. Next up, let’s take a look at a couple of weekly charts. And I like to take a look at these on Friday morning just to get a look at how the week is coming to an end.

A lot of times you can get wrapped up in the day to day news and you lose focus of the big picture. And this is kind of a way for me to clean the palette going into the weekend. Looking at the VIx, the VIX is down on the week nearly 6%. So that keeps us long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX doesn’t close above 16.86 this afternoon at 4:00 p.m. So that’s looking pretty bullish for the market. Then we’ve got the Dow up 1.84% on the week. It is back on a buy signal at that point if it closes that level. That’s also true for the S&P 500, which is up 1.68%, not so much for the Nasdaq. It’s only up one and a quarter percent on the week. And we still need a little work to do on Friday to get us a new weekly buy signal. Then looking at the TSX, TSX is trading back up at recent highs. Still on a buy signal here. No change in trend. Crude oil made a new low for this move this week and then bounced. It’s up 1.3% on the week and that is going to continue to move higher at the open on Friday morning.

And then gold so far is having an inside week, but that’s going to change this morning, gold is up $31.70 so far, and then we’re going to add it looks like another $35, $40 at the open on Friday. So that’s still looking pretty good. Moving from weekly to daily charts, you can see the VIX is still on a short term sell signal. And last week, if you were with us, there was quite a divergence between the VIX and what the markets were doing. The markets were selling off, the VIX barely moved. And so we knew there was a divergence between options traders in Chicago and stock traders in New York. And that divergence was going to resolve itself with either the VIX moving higher or the stock market moving higher. And it turned out to be the stock market moving higher as the VIX continued to move lower. We’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.13 this afternoon at 4:00 p.m., now, of course, if that doesn’t happen, that upper channel line continues to move lower daily. Now, yesterday was a nice big update for the Dow.

We’re heading towards 388.44 on the ETF. That’s our next price target and that’s where we topped out back in March. Of course, it would be great if we could continue to move higher and we would expect some psychological resistance at 400, but so far that is our next target and that’s what we’re going to deal with. The big winner yesterday on the Dow was Home Depot up a little over 2.5% on the day. Caterpillar is back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. And Goldman Sachs made a new high on Thursday, up another 1.93%. Then looking at the S&P 500, it had a nice move up yesterday, starting to break away from the 515 63 level, heading towards 531.25 with probably a stop at the recent high up there at 424 61. The big winner yesterday was equinix. It was up over 11% on the day, popping higher then. We had NRG energy having a nice update yesterday, trading back up to the recent high. And then we’re looking at Steris. Steriswas up over 7.5% on the day. So congratulations. If you’re trading Steris, then looking at the Nasdaq 100, ended up being a fairly quiet day, up less than a quarter percent on the day

We’re heading up towards 445.31 and we topped out just above that level back in March. So that is our next price target for the Nasdaq. 100 ETF. Constellation Energy was the big winner yesterday. Putting in a new high. Booking was the next big winner, followed by The Trade Desk, which was the big loser on Wednesday. So still on a buy signal here. No change in trend. Looking at the Canadian market. New high for the TSX 60 heading towards 34.38. Yesterday morning. We were waiting for earnings from Canadian Tire, and it was the best performing stock on the TSX yesterday. So congratulations if you own Canadian Tire. Kinross continued to move higher. Then we had a huge update for Manulife, up for 4.73% on the day. And then looking at the TSX itself, we’re heading towards 22,500. That’s our next mathematical price target. And we were watching Telus yesterday morning, coming out with earnings, a small pullback. We would need to close below 22.13 on Friday to give us a sell signal for Telus. For Cineplex. Had a big wide bar yesterday. It ended the day on a sell signal. If you’ve been trading or owning Cineplex on the way up, you know, it just closed slightly below the lower channel.

There’s nothing wrong with waiting another day to see if we get a confirmation close above, below the lower channel line there. We hit a few price targets on the way up. So if you were taking money off the table as we went higher, congratulations. And now you’re sitting with a small position. No reason why you can’t continue to sit with that. Until we get another close below that lower channel line, let’s finish off looking at the energy sector. We’ll start off looking at crude oil, which traded up yesterday. We had a reversal day on Thursday, and we’re back up above the 78.13 level. So starting to break away from that, heading towards 81.25. We’ve got natural gas on a short term buy signal here. As I’ve mentioned previously, we’ve got the pros coming back to take control, but I really want to see more from natural gas before I get excited about it. And we’re trading right up to the tether line there. We may actually get a buy signal on the midterm chart on Friday. If natural gas can continue to move higher, then looking at the stocks themselves, starting off with the ishares for the TSX energy sector, we are back on a buy signal here.

So there seems to be a little difference between what the market’s looking at at the moment. They seem to be more interested in small cap energy stocks as opposed to those big cap energy stocks. There’s always a little optical illusion when you’re looking at charts and let me just explain it, because I talk about the fact that it’s, you know, harder to make money up at these levels. When a stock is trading at $10 and it moves up a dollar, that’s a 10% gain. So let’s just imagine back here, this was a $10 stock. Now we’re up here, and let’s say we’re up at $20. A $1 move is now 5%. So you’re taking on more risk up here to make less money. Now, you can change the chart format to see that better, but unfortunately, it’s harder to work with when you do post those type of charts. Then looking at what worked, International Petroleum has been the big winner over the last week, followed by precision drilling and then Birchcliff. So those are the best performing stocks over the last week in the Canadian energy sector. Now, the worst performing Canadian Energy stock that we follow is Kelt, and it’s starting to dip below the April lows.

Then looking at the US market, the XLE is still on a sell signal. That would change on Friday with a close above 94.69. So it looks like there’s a little more interest in small mid cap energy stocks than there are in big cap stocks at the moment. The best performing us energy stock over the last week, that’s in our database is Apache, followed by Cotera. And then we’re looking at Marathon Oil. Those are the best performing stocks over the last week. And for marathon, we’re still looking for a close on Friday above $27.31. The worst performing big cap stock that we follow is Occidental, and it’s still on a sell signal. Had an inside day yesterday, so no change in trend there. Okay, that’s all I wanted to cover this morning. I don’t want to keep you here all day. I really appreciate your time and attention. Have a great Friday. It looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open. Enjoy your weekend and I will drop by over the weekend and do a presentation on the gold sector. Otherwise, if you’re busy on the weekend, next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 10, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning ahead of jobless claims coming out at 8:30. We do have stock index futures and gold trading lower in the pre market, while crude oil is trading slightly higher on Thursday morning. Well, yesterday we saw the VIX continue to move lower, so we know options traders aren’t worried about the future at the moment. That would change on Thursday if the VIX were to close above 1549. Now, the Dow continued to move higher. I think it’s up six days in a row. The big winner on the Dow on Wednesday was Amgen, followed by Boeing, followed by JP Morgan. What didn’t work yesterday? Well, the usual suspect intel made a new low on Wednesday. Moving on to the S&P 500. Had a very quiet day yesterday, ending the day just up a nickel. We’re still stuck to the 500 1563 level. Notice above that, we’ve got a wall of resistance from March into early April. If we can take out the recent high, then 531.25 would be our next target to the upside. Now, we did talk about resistance for the S&P 500 index up at 5200.

We saw the market reverse from that level the other day. Yesterday we got as high as 5,191.95. So we have not gone back to retest that level just yet. Yet. Then looking at what worked yesterday on the S&P 500, it was Arista Networks, followed by Globe Life, followed by Ericsson. Ericsson ending a month long downtrend with a huge day yesterday. So if the S&P 500 had a very small bar, Ericsson had a huge wide bar yesterday. Then looking at what didn’t work well, Uber gapped lower yesterday on earnings, and we’ve seen a lot of stocks do that recently, and I think that’s going to continue. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, it pulled back slightly yesterday after making a new high for this move on Tuesday. And of course, we also have a wall of resistance up here that ran through from late February all the way into the middle of April and looking to see if we can break out above that. Our next mathematical target, if we can break away from the 437.50 level, is up there at 445 31. Now, what worked yesterday? Well, Datadog came back after a huge gap down day on Tuesday.

That was the big winner in percentage terms, followed by Constellation Energy. And then it was Amgen, which we’ve already looked at. And following Amgen was Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Then what didn’t work on the Nasdaq 100 was the Trade Desk. It traded back into the channel yesterday, gapping lower, looking for a close on Thursday below 85.03 to give us a new daily sell signal. Then moving on to the Canadian market. You can see the ishares of the TSX 60 had a very wide bar day on Wednesday, mirroring what happened on Monday. And then on Tuesday it was just incredibly quiet for some reason as it traded up to the previous high and stopped. Now if we can take out Tuesday’s high then 34.38 would be our next target to the upside. Now, looking at what worked and what didn’t work yesterday, well, it’s kind of a mirror of what we were looking at in the US on Tuesday’s trading action with Utilities and Consumer Staples the big winners. What didn’t work? Well, it was Information Technology down over 4% on the day. We’ll take a look at that in a second. There’s Utilities making a new high.

We saw money continue to go into Consumer Staples on Wednesday. What didn’t work? Well, it was the Infotech sector and it was the big elephant in the room, Shopify, which unfortunately after being up 12345 days in a row ended Wednesday down gapping lower in the pre market that continued throughout the day. So no recovery. We may see some recovery today. If we take out yesterday’s low, then 81.25 and then $75 would be our next two targets. To the downside, what worked well, Kinross was the big winner on the TSX 60, up nearly 5% on the day, followed by WSP. What didn’t work? NextGen was the big loser, down over 12% on the day. And that’s quite a wide range bar for next gen. What also didn’t work well, Bausch continued to move lower, making a new low on Wednesday. What worked yesterday? Well, banks were up on the day and the big winner was Bank of Nova Scotia, up 1.47%, making a new high for this move. And in today, what we’ve got to look forward to is earnings from Canadian Tire, from Cineplex and from Telus. And coming into today, all three of those stocks are currently on buy signals.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning. And at that time we’ll take a closer look at the commodity sectors.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, May 9, 2024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. And thanks for joining me for breakfast. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are slightly below fair value. So so far it looks like we’re going to see a little selling at the open on Wednesday morning. Well yesterday the VIX continued to move lower. Things would change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close above 15.87. Now last week we saw a lot of selling in the market and the VIX remained steady, did not push up and we were looking to see how the market would resolve. And of course the market has flipped over and it resolved in favor of the VIX. So options traders obviously had a better handle on things than stock traders did last week. Now yesterday the market stopped on a dime. The S&P 500 got up to 5200 and pulled back. Not a major pullback just yet, but certainly an indication that 5200 is an important number to the market. The high yesterday was $5,200.23. Now we pulled back, we’ve got a pressure zone that’s bearish. We bounced off 5000, we traded slightly below it and then started to move back up.

So we’re heading towards the previous high which is up there at 5264.85. And if we can take that out then 5312.50 does come into play. Now we bounced off the 100 day moving average. We’ve moved back up above the 50 day moving average. We’re still projecting higher here. The Flypaper Channel acted as support. Now we were oversold, we’re moving back up. We’re not overbought just yet. So all of that looks bullish at the moment. The problem is that the market is still in risk off mode. And the reason I say that is over the last 30 days the best performing sector has been the Utilities, not Semiconductors, not technology. It’s been the Utilities followed by Consumer Staples, not Consumer Discretionary. So Consumer Staples of course are those products that you need no matter what happens. And those stocks have been rising and they’ve been winning. What hasn’t been winning? Well the Transports are the least productive major sector out there after some of the commodity sectors. And yeah, that’s the way the market looks right now. The headline of the S&P 500 hitting 5200 is one story. There’s something else going on in the background we should be aware of.

Now let’s move on. Take a look at commodity ETF’s this morning and we’ve got crude oil making a new low for this move in the pre market. So we’ve been on a sell signal for a few weeks now, and that move down in crude oil is helping push gasoline prices lower a little bit into natural gas over the last couple of days. And going back from the ETF to the futures contract, I do want to see more positive activity in natural gas before I get overly excited about it. You know, it’s very hard to trade natural gas for a reason and it has very high volatility and you can get suckered into a trade very easily. So we want to give natural gas a little more breathing room, even though technically it is on a short term buy signal on the ETF. Then looking at the metals. Gold still on a sell signal. Trading slightly lower in the pre market this morning. Things would change on Wednesday for the GLD if it closed above $215.77. Then looking at Palladium, we’re looking for a close above $90.13 on Wednesday. And if that happened, that would join platinum already on a buy signal, making a new high for this little move.

Heading up towards the high from back in April and then looking at the price of silver. The SLV is on a buy signal right now. That would change on Wednesday with a close below $24.49. Next up, let’s walk through the New York most actives from Tuesday’s trading action. First up we’ve got Palantir, which got whacked yesterday. And we had several opportunities to take money off the table at $23.44 and $25. So you should have a partial position left, which you’re going to liquidate at the open on Wednesday morning. Next up, we’re looking at Marathon inside day yesterday. No joy there. Looking at Tesla pulling back in the channel. A close below $172.45 would give us a new sell signal on Wednesday. Then looking at Apple. Small gain there for Apple. Then we’re looking at Neo. And Nio pull pulled back closed below the previous day’s low. No change in trend there. Then we’ve got Soundhound having an inside day. A close below $4.24 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal. We made a new high for Pfizer yesterday before pulling back. And you can see that we moved up to an area where we peaked back in March here.

So you’ve had several opportunities to take money off the table and waiting for a pullback here. We’re still well above the upper channel line. So not concerned about a sell signal on Wednesday. Then looking at Sofi, no joy. Looking for a close above $7.30. On Wednesday to give us a sell signal. And then GameStop’s come into focus once again. It’s on a buy signal right now. Ran up to the 17.19 level a couple of times, so hopefully you got some orders filled up at that level. But it looks like that is a major wall of resistance right now. And then last up, we’re looking at American Airlines. We’re on a buy signal. Inside day yesterday, no joy. There could be something new happening. We made a slightly higher high. We made a higher low here. So something could be brewing for this stock. We’ll just have to wait and see. Let’s finish off with a quick look at the TSX most actives from Tuesday’s trading action, starting off with Enbridge. Enbridge made a new high for this move on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the TD Bank not going anywhere right now. Inside day on Tuesday then looking at Manulife reversal there, I guess the air is getting pretty thin up here.

Trading up towards the high from back in March. That’s also true for the Royal Bank. Had a pullback yesterday, coming up towards the highs from early April. Then we’ve got Suncor back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Personally, I wouldn’t chase any of these buy signals up here. We’re up at the top of the panic zones. It’s a lot harder to make money up here, especially when crude oil is heading in the opposite direction. Inside day for Bayte, no change in trend there. Then we’ve got Cenovus, still on a sell signal. No change there. Then we’ve got caliber mining, still on a buy signal. No change in trend. No change in trend. For Tourmaline. It traded up through the upper channel line again. I’m not going to chase these up here. We need to wait until we’ve had a substantial sell off before we want to start chasing these again. Then looking at Bank of Montreal, we’re on a buy signal right now. Had a pullback yesterday, no change in trend. And then last up, Air Canada dropped out of the sky last week. We had several opportunities to take some money off the table, so hopefully you didn’t get stuck with a complete position.

When we look at the panic zone chart, we are projecting way down towards 16.50. To get there though, we’ve got to be able to take out the recent low from April and then take out the recent low from March. So you’ve got to give those some weighting. It’s not an automatic move down to these levels. You’ve got to break through those levels of support. And if you look across here, there was a lot of trading going on around the $18 level. So it’s really, you know, it’s going to take a lot of work and a lot more bad news to get it all the way down there. It is possible, and that’s what we’re projecting. But you’ve got to look backwards and see, okay, well, how much resistance or support is going to be between where we are to where we think we’re going to go. And there is a lot of congestion along here. So it’s not an automatic. It is what we’re projecting. But there’s a lot of work on the downside to do before that happens. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Just looking over my shoulder, I see the stock index futures are still fairly quiet, slightly below fair value.

Commodities are mixed. I’ve got crude oil down $0.60 while gold is up $0.50. So it looks like we’re gonna have a fairly quiet open on Wednesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In this presentation, we’re going to take a very quick look at the US market and then head into the Canadian market and we’ll end the presentation. Taking a look at commodity prices in the pre market this morning. Things are mixed. Stock index futures are trading above and below fair value. The Dow and the S&P 500 are slightly higher while the Nasdaq is slightly lower. And we’ve got commodities down across the board with gold down about $10 in the pre market on Tuesday morning. Well, we’ve got some premarket action. We’ve got Palantir giving up yesterday’s gains. We’ve got Lucid giving up yesterday’s gains, and we’ve got Tesla giving up yesterday’s gains in the pre market. That’s putting a little pressure on the Nasdaq. So far yesterday, the VIX ended unchanged on the day, so that’s still supportive for higher stock prices. Things would change on Tuesday if the VIX were to close above 1625 now. Yes, you anticipated that we might see a pullback for Apple and for Amgen on Monday and that’s exactly what happened. What I didn’t anticipate was it really wouldn’t have much effect on the rest of the markets as they continued to push higher on Monday.

Now moving on to the Canadian stock market. Both the TSX and the TSX 60 had big updates yesterday. I consider these high risk trades to jump in here at this particular time. But if you’re a short term trader and you’re taking both sides of the market, this is what you have to do. We’ve also got mid caps and small caps back on buy signals. Joining the venture exchange already on a buy signal. Now, when we look at the sectors, it was, infotech was the big winner yesterday, just like in the US. The materials, energy, of course, materials and energy are the most widely traded stocks in the country. So let’s walk through some of these. Starting off with Infotech, you can see we’re back on a buy signal here. And the big winner yesterday was Hut 8 back on a buy signal. No joy yet for Bitfarms. It was up over 5% on the day. And then Celestica is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. And then of course, the elephant in the room is Shopify. And Shopify may be looking pretty bullish here. First of all, we made a higher low last week and now we’re taking out this recent high, so that’s looking pretty good.

We may get a run up here, but we do have earnings coming out this week that could certainly interfere or just help throw the stock sharply higher. We’ll just have to wait and see. Then, looking at Materials, we’re still on a buy signal here. We had a nice update yesterday for Capstone, and then First Majestic Silver is back on a buy signal. And then Fortuna. Those were the three big winners in this sector. What’s not working just yet is Barrick. Still on a sell signal, and we still got a divergence between Barrick and Agnico Eagle, which is still on a buy signal. It’s interesting to watch Barrick trade in sync with the price of gold. Then looking at the Energy sector, the index was able to trade back up into the channel yesterday. The big winner in this sector was Baytex on Monday. Not enough to give us a buy signal, unlike Birchcliff, which is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. We also have ARX back on a buy signal, closing above the upper channel line by one penny. The elephant in the room is Canadian Natural Resources, still looking for a close on Tuesday above $105.61. Then looking at industrials, we’re back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close.

The big winner on the day was Badger. Not enough to give this stock a buy signal, unlike SNC, which is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close, joining Bombardier, making a new high for this move on Monday. And of course the railways are the big players in the industrial sector with the CN back on a buy signal. Unfortunately, CP still needs to close above $112.61. Then let’s finish off with financials. A big update yesterday for the Financial sector being led higher by Great West Life. And then when we’re looking at the banks, the biggest bank of course, is the Royal Bank, which made a new high for this move, heading up towards the highs from early April. And then the biggest insurance company, of course, is Manulife. Again, it had a nice big day yesterday, again heading up towards those highs from late March. Then we’ve got Fairfax still on a buy signal here, looking to see if it can take out the recent high from March. And the big winner for the last month has been. Go easy. That stock has been the best performer in the financial sector over the last month.

What hasn’t been working over the last month is TD Bank, which came out with a sell signal on Friday. On Thursday, excuse me, on Friday, there’s where the open was. So you could have got out of the TD bank right there and then we ended the day way down here. So not pretty picture for the TD bank, which has been struggling for quite a while. Let’s finish off looking at the world of commodities, starting with crude oil. Crude oil is holding the 7813 level, starting to trade below that in the pre market this morning. If we start breaking down, of course, our next target is $75. Natural gas. Second day of a buy signal here and as I mentioned previously, we want to give natural gas a little more room. It has been struggling for quite a while, so I was looking for a move above 261 as a potential indication that something new is happening in the natural gas market. So far, that hasn’t happened. Looking at metals, copper’s bounced off the lower channel line, closing above it. Once again, no joy for gold. It was up $22.60 yesterday. It’s down $10 in the pre market this morning.

So we’re not really breaking down here, just not continuing to go higher. Silver had a nice move up yesterday. It’s pulling back in the pre market, so no joy yet for the price of silver. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation so far. It looks like we’re going to have a mixed open in the north american markets on Tuesday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. And at that time, we’ll take a look at the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. Thanks for joining me for breakfast. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from the uptrend.com dot. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and commodities are currently trading above fair value. Dow futures currently up 120 points. We have no economic numbers coming out this morning that are going to really affect the market. Now, Friday was an interesting day. It brought the VIX down to close just below the lower channel line. That gives us a weekly sell signal for the VIX and turns us from being long term bearish to being long term bullish on the markets. I got questions about that, but the reality is we closed below the lower channel line, joining the daily VIX already on a sell signal. So we remain short term bullish on the market. Now, what happened on Friday leaves me a bit perplexed, but that’s just the way it is. We have to deal with the cards that were dealt. Now, a lot happened on Friday, but unfortunately it was just focused on two major stocks, and we’ll get to those in a second. You were with us last week. We were looking to see if the markets could trade and close above the recent highs.

And sometimes you get what you ask for, and that’s exactly what happened on Friday, with the Dow actually gapping higher on Friday. The Dow doesn’t usually gap very often, but it certainly did on Friday. And unfortunately, most of those gains came from just two individual stocks. Now, you can see the difference when you look at the canadian market. That does not include those two stocks. Yes, we traded higher on Friday. It was a nice day, not enough to give us a buy signal, and we certainly didn’t break out above the recent highs. Now, the first stock we need to talk about is apple. We knew about that in the pre market. Apple had news out Thursday night. And since the news came out, the market was trading sharply higher and Apple was up nearly six, closed up nearly 6% on the day. It blew through our first price target of 181.25. And if you had an order in around there, so let’s say 181.25 ish, it got filled at the open at 186.55. So congratulations. We’re still trying to get to 187.50. You can see the big red bar telling us that we closed lower than we opened.

So the market was willing to sell off going into the close, but certainly not enough to fill the gap. Now, that big up move helps break the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. So things could be looking up for Apple going forward. We’ll just have to wait and see. Now, the bigger story on Friday was actually Amgen, which ended the day up nearly 12%. It blew through our first price target of 296.88, ran up to the next price target of 312.50. So lots of money to be made there. And of course, if you had an order in at 296.88 ish, it got filled at the open up there at 313.39. So congratulations to anyone trading Amgen. From here, we’re looking to see if we can move up to our next price target, which is a realistic target. We were there a couple of months ago, up at 328.13. So just keep your order in there for the time being. Now, Amgen earned itself a triple play on Friday. Not only was it the best performing stock in the dow, but it was also the best performing stock on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500.

So lots of money was moving Friday, and both of those major indices closed above the recent high, which is bullish. I’m a little concerned about a possible pop and drop for both of those stocks, Apple and Amgen. If we look at a couple of stocks that recently popped, and there’s Alphabet, you can see for the next two days, we traded lower. And for Tesla, for the next two days, we traded lower. And so those stocks, Apple and Amgen, having such a big impact on Friday, I’m kind of concerned that they roll over and head down for the next couple of days, which could pull out all of the enthusiasm that the market gained on Friday. We’ll just have to wait and see. Now, looking at the weekly charts, starting off with the ishares for the TSX 60, we ended the week almost unchanged. For the Dow, we traded up into the channel up 1.17%. The S&P 500, not so much, up 0.6 of a percent. Trading back in the channel, getting pretty close to a weekly buy signal. Then, looking at the triple qs, we were up over 1% on the week. But if you look at the equal weighted triple qs, you can see we’re up only a quarter of a percent on the week.

So you take out the emphasis on those big cap tech stocks like Apple, like Microsoft, Facebook, Tesla…, And then look at the next generation of Nasdaq stocks. What happened to those? Well, they ended the week unchanged, so not phased at all by what happened with Apple and Amgen. At the other end, you’ve got the Russell 2000, and it was up nearly 2%, 1.78% on the week. So a nice move for the Russell still on a weekly sell signal. Now, we’ve been talking about the time shift. We were expecting a big pop in the VIX in March. That didn’t happen. It happened in April. And so is the market going to be on a time shift for the rest of the year, or is it going to get back in sync with the seasonalities that we normally expect? We should expect a May pullback for the S&P 500, for the Nasdaq and for the TSX, and that should start right about now. It certainly doesn’t look like it’s starting on Monday morning, but that’s what the market usually does in May. So don’t be surprised if we get a pullback here. But it certainly hasn’t started this morning.

Now, what didn’t work last week or anything commodity related? We had canadian energy stocks down over nearly 4%. We had us energy stocks down three and a third percent, both on weekly buy signals. Still no change there. No change for gold stocks, down over 3% in the US, down over 3% on the TSX. And then we had us financials. So when you get past all the commodity ETF’s moving lower, it was really us financials, which were down two thirds of a percent, still on a weekly buy signal, and then canadian banks down a third of a percent and sitting right on the edge of a new weekly sell signal. So a little weakness in financials last week. Then let’s finish off looking at commodities. Starting off with the energy sector, we had crude oil come down sharply on the week, nearly 7% back on a weekly sell signal. If you remember, we were stuck in a range here between 87.50 down to 81.25. And we finally broke down below that, heading towards $75 and then possibly 68.75. We’re not heading in that direction at the open this morning, but we’re only up slightly in the pre market.

Now looking at natural gas, we were up just under 6% on the week, which you really won’t notice on the natural gas chart. We’re starting to indicate that we’re putting in a bottom here. And on the weekly chart we’re looking for a close above $2.61 this coming Friday to give us a buy signal. Now, if you look at the daily midterm chart, 2.61 comes in right around what we’re looking for, the midterm chart as well. And you notice we haven’t had any love for natural gas since way back here in October. Look across the bottom here. We are starting to make higher lows and getting pretty close to breaking out. So if momentum starts to break out here and we get a close above 261, that might be the start of something new for natural gas. But up to this point, natural gas is still a disaster. Moving on to the metals, copper hit a new high before pulling back. Closing lower on the week did not close below the previous week’s low. We hit our next price target. If we can take out this week’s high, then, yeah, we could certainly move up to the next price target.

That’s a big round number. Then, looking at the price of gold, we ended the week down $38.60. We’re up $20 in the premarket. We didn’t close below the previous week’s low, unlike the price of silver, which was down on the weekend, did close below the previous week’s low. So a little more weakness for silver at the moment. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Stock index futures still trading higher this morning. A little concerned about a pop and drop. We’ll have to see if we can build on what happened on Friday or if that’s the end of this particular move. We’ll just have to wait and see. But it’s kind of 50 50 at the moment. But so far, stock index futures are trading higher. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. And at Tuesday morning, we’re going to take a closer look at the canadian stock market.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, May 6, 2024

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. And in this presentation, we’re going to take a look at the recent trading action in Amgen (AMGN. Now, if you were watching the market on Friday morning, it was all about Apple (AAPL), but apparently not. Amgen hit a triple play on Friday. It was the top performing stock in the Dow, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500. That doesn’t happen very often. Now, looking at the daily Panic Zone chart for Amgen, you can see we popped big time on Friday. Looking at the Panic Zone chart, we’re looking for low risk buying opportunities. When a stock is down at the bottom of the Panic Zones and a Pressure Zone has formed, that’s when low risk buying opportunities show up. Now, they don’t always work out. This rally here turned out to not last very long before it started to roll back, and we actually ended up making a lower high here and then a lower low here. So Amgen was still looking pretty bearish before the last buy signal showed up. Now, at the top of the chart, we’ve got our early warning signals. And again, they don’t always work out.

The one over here on the left certainly did. These two didn’t. And of course, these two have worked out. Now, anytime that an early warning signal shows up, two things are going to happen. Well, first of all, if you’ve been hitting your Price Targets and selling along the way up, you’ve only got a few shares left. That’s what often happens. So there isn’t that much pressure to get out. So you can wait for the actual sell signal. This trade didn’t last very long, so unfortunately that one didn’t work out. But what happens is that when you are up at the top of the Panic Zones and an early warning signal goes off, the first thing you want to do is to play defensively and just take your finger off and sit back and wait till to see things develop. But you certainly don’t want to be buying up at those levels after an early warning signal goes off. That can often end in disaster. Now, looking at the daily Right Side chart from back on April 22, that’s when this trade started. It was the first close above the upper chain line. So if you shorted Amgen back here, then we’ve got a buy signal.

So now we’re going to be looking to buy at the open on the next day. So that would have been April 23. Now, at the time it was looking bearish. We were struggling along the bottom of the flypaper channel. So we’re up at the Fly Paper channel. This isn’t the big area of resistance that it would be if we were trading much farther below. So we’re struggling here. We weren’t expecting to be able to shoot through the way we did, but our expectation at the time would have been a run up to at least the recent high. But you can see that we’re coming off an oversold position and moving up. We haven’t gone all the way up to overbought yet, so there’s still some room to run. But at this point, it’s still looking pretty bearish for Amgen back on April 23. Now, at the time, we were trading around support at the 265.63 level, so that was bullish. We traded along there for a couple of weeks. You notice that we traded below that level but never broke away from it. Now, what’s happening now? Well, on the 22nd and the 23rd, we started to break away from that level, so that’s looking a lot more bullish.

Of course, our next mathematical target is 281.25, but we already know that we were able to trade above that just a month ago. So you got a couple of bullish things here, and the sky is looking much brighter back on April 23 than it did the previous week. Now, on the 23rd, we opened at 272.14. So if you had your order in to buy at the open, that’s the price you would have got filled at. Now, I always strongly recommend that you check premarket activity anytime you get a new buy or sell signal. And the first thing I’d look for is if, you know, I got a buy signal in Amgen, and I came in the next morning and I found it was trading below the previous day’s low in the pre market. Well, I’d just avoid that buy signal and not do anything. There’s nothing wrong with waiting an additional day to get a confirmation signal, which would be the next close above the upper channel line. It’s really up to you to decide whether to take that signal or not. And if there’s a lot of negative premarket activity, you want to avoid it.

And at the same time, if the market is selling off sharply in the premarket, you probably want to avoid that buy signal and wait another day. That’s also true for sell signals. If you get a sell signal, you come in the next morning and you find the stock has shot up in. In the premarket, you’re going to just wave off that sell signal. A lot of times, signals are generated because there was noise in the market the previous day. So let’s say on Friday, there was a lot of bullish noise about a stock. And then over the weekend, everybody figured out that, hey, those rumors aren’t really true. The company’s really not going to do that, or the government’s not going to sue them, whatever. And then on the Monday, all that energy is taken out of the stock. You really want to check what’s going on in the premarket before you actually place that order. So, coming in, we see that stock’s bidding up a bit in the premarket, so it’s good to take it. There’s nothing wrong with paying a little more today than you did yesterday, because that’s what you want the market to do.

It can’t go up unless people are willing to pay more for a stock. So jumping in at 272.14 is what you did. Now, back on that day, here’s what our Price Target chart looked like. And I’m always talking about your immediate playing field is two lines up or two lines down, depending on which way the stock is going. And so when we go back in time to April 23, we were looking two lines up. Now, if we go back and look to the left of the screen, you can see we had a move up two lines and drove right up, stopped on the dime. And then the next day, we started to break out above it. So that opens up the next two lines to the upside, and that took us up to the 320 813 level, where we stopped. We actually traded through that level and then came down fairly quickly. Now, you’ve probably heard people talk about the fact that stocks usually rise on an escalator and fall on an elevator, and that certainly looks like what happened here. But we drove two lines down, tried to find support. Once support broke, then that opened up the next two lines, and it took over a month to get down to the $265.63 level.

And then we traded along that for a couple of weeks. So we were building a base that could turn out to be bullish. Now, when we look up two lines, what I always recommend is you take whatever position you purchased. So you put an order in for 10 shares, 100, 1000 shares, whatever amount you bought, you get a confirmation of a fill from your brokerage firm. So now you know that those shares are in your account. You automatically go back into your account and put a good to counter canceled order in up at the next price level. And you want to sell at least 50% of your initial position. So if you bought 100 shares. You want to sell 50 at 296.88, and I recommend that you put that order in a little below that. So what about 295.88, for example? Because you know that there’s going to be selling pressure usually up at that level, and so you want to just put it in a little below. There’s no reason to be greedy and put it in right at $296.88. Once you know that you’ve got that order in place, then go back into your account and put another order in to sell a remainder, 50% of your remainder of a position up at the 312 50 level.

Again. Make it 311 50. Put it in a little below. Now, you’ve got 75% of your position. You’ve got orders in to sell those shares as the stock goes up, whether you’re there or not. You don’t have to watch the market at this point. Now, whatever remaining shares you’ve got left, you can put an order in to sell half of those at 328.13, and you’re going to put them in again. It’s good to cancel the order. You can cancel it at any time. But what we’re doing is getting prepared for the market to move up, and sometimes the market moves up really quickly and you’re not there. You’re not sitting at your machine at that time to take advantage of it. So you want these orders in before it ever happens. So what did happen? Well, we popped on Friday, and that was quite a dramatic move to the upside, we gapped higher. Where did we land? Well, at the end of the day, just below the 312.50 level. Now, if you had to put your orders in ahead of time, you would have got filled at the open. So those orders in the 50% that you had an order in at 296.88 or around that level, that got filled at 313.39 or approximately that level, it would have been executed at the open.

So would your order at the 312.50 level. That would have also been executed at the open. So, you know, the fact that you weren’t there, you were going about your day, those orders got filled. Now, we didn’t make it up to the 328.13 level. That’s kind of a coin flip from here. But we were up at that level back a couple of months ago, and so it is certainly doable. Whether the market wants to continue higher from here or starts to pull back to fill that gap, we don’t know yet. But at least you’ve got an order in up at that level. Now, coming into Monday’s trading action to get kicked out of the remainder of your shares in Amgen, we would need a close below $272.61. And you know what? I kind of think that’s not going to happen on Monday. So our expectations would be that, over time, you can see that lower chain line is starting to curl up. So, over the next couple of weeks, we’re going to run up towards where Amgen is trading right now. Now, if amgen starts to come back sharply, they’re going to meet faster.

But if amgen hangs around this level or continues to move higher, our lower chain line is going to trail the stock higher. But certainly on Monday, we would need a close blow, 272.61, to get kicked out of amgen. Okay, that’s all I wanted to cover in today’s presentation. Thank you very much for your time. You know, if you ever imagined being a superhero when you’re a kid, and that hasn’t worked out for you so far, like, if you haven’t rescued a dog from a burning building or saved somebody from drowning, you know, there’s a way you can become a superhero with not much effort. About an hour of your time, and that is to donate blood. Now, I’m a big supporter of people who donate blood, and I put my money where my mouth is. And we have a lot of people who have free lifetime memberships to the uptrend because they’ve been lifetime blood donors. When you start donating blood, you can get a discount on our services. So, you know, if you’re interested in becoming a subscriber and you’re a blood donor, please go check out this page on our website. Otherwise, you know, if you’re going to donate blood this week, you’re probably not going to know anybody that’s going to help.

You’re going to be helping complete strangers, you know, mothers giving birth in distress, people in car accidents. At some point in your life, somebody you know, a family member, a friend, is going to need blood. And you’re going to feel pretty good about the fact that you’ve been a long time blood donor. So, please, especially men out there, if you’ve got cardiovascular issues, there’s some evidence out there that this can be very helpful for your long term health if you become a long term blood donor. Okay, folks, thank you very much for your time and attention, and we’ll talk to you again soon.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Saturday, May 4, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are higher across the board ahead of the employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. Those numbers could certainly change the direction of the market. And the pre market commodities are flat at this particular time. Now, as we come into the market open, we’ve got Apple trading sharply higher. Now, Apple recently put in a lower high. We’re on a buy signal coming into Friday’s trading action. Right now, Apple is trading up over $180. And if you’ve got an order in at $181.25, it looks like it’s going to get filled at the open. Now, Apple is going to pop higher on earnings. It’s important to remember that a lot of stocks that have popped after earnings have faded fairly quickly. We can look at Alphabet, you can look at Tesla both pulling back out after they popped. And of course, that’s not good for the overall stock market if Apple does that again. Now, a couple of ARK stocks are in the news this morning. We’ve got Square or Block trading up over the upper channel line at the moment.

If it holds that, that would give us a daily buy signal. Then looking at Coinbase, it is down in the premarket this morning already on a sell signal. So not expecting a change in trend for Coinbase as it trades down to Wednesday’s low in the pre market. Now, ARK is currently on a buy signal, had an inside day yesterday. Looks a lot like the Nasdaq itself at the moment, looking to see if we can take out Monday’s high. Now the market can be a pretty noisy place. There’s a constant stream of news and economic numbers and then opinion on the news and economic numbers. And of course, the reaction to all that noise is price movement. In the stock market, we use charts to filter out that noise, and we use weekly charts to filter out what happens Monday to Friday and daily charts to help filter out what happens between 09:30 a.m. And 04:00 p.m. At the end of the day, it’s just a huge soap opera. And by using the charts, we can filter out all of that noise. Now, I printed off some weekly charts this morning just to see what things look like going into today’s trading action.

And for a lot of symbols, it’s been an inside week. For example, the Dow, which is only down 14 points on the week, pretty close to unchanged right now. And of course, Apple is helping lift the Dow higher this morning, and the Dow is currently up 300 points in the pre market ahead of those employment numbers. Yesterday was an inside day or a day of indecision for the Dow. Now, remember, the Dow is not the most important index in the world. It’s just the most followed index there is. It’s the oldest north american index. It’s the one, if you’re driving in your car and the news is going to mention the stock market, they’ll tell you what the Dow is doing. It’s really the comfort blanket for the stock market, but it is certainly not the most important index for the stock market. And I’ll show you that in a second. Now, the S&P 500 is down a little over two thirds, just on its way to down three quarters of a percent for the week. It did trade slightly above last week’s high at the open, but then has pulled back the rest of the week.

Now, when we talk about which index is the most important, it is the S&P 500. If we look at the ETF volume from yesterday, you can see for the S&P 500, it was over 62 million. For the Nasdaq 100, it was over 36 million. And then for the Dow, it was just over 3 million shares traded. So you can see where the market’s focus is. And I like to focus on the S&P 500. But when you’re dealing with the public, you’ve got to mention the Dow. Now, in the pre market this morning, the Dow is up a third of a percent. So that won’t take us up over this week’s high so far, but that could certainly change. Now, looking at what happened yesterday, we did make a lower low yesterday before pulling back into the channel. And what we’re looking for on Friday is a close above Monday’s high. That would be very positive for the market. That would get us back on a buy signal, but that’s, you know, you got to take what you can. If it closes above Monday’s high, that, that would be a very strong buy signal.

And so we’re going to wait and see how that works out. Now, looking at the Nasdaq 100, you can see we did trade above last week’s high before pulling back. We’re down 1% on the week right now. We’re up 0.87% in the pre market this morning. So we may be able to make up a lot of this week’s losses on Friday. Yesterday was an inside day for the Nasdaq. Again, we’re going to be watching to see if we can close above Monday’s high, that would be a very positive sign for the market. Looking at the TSX, we’re down two thirds of a percent on the week. Almost an inside week for the TSX. Certainly an inside day yesterday. And again, instead of this week’s high, we can look at the previous week’s high, which is acting as resistance, and we’ll see if we can break out and close above that number. That would certainly be positive for the market. Now, getting back to what happened yesterday, looking at the US market you can see it was information technology and then consumer discretionary that led the market higher. Not a lot of losers yesterday, just materials and healthcare, not down by much.

You can see the technology sector had an inside day yesterday. It was an inside day for consumer discretionary. Then we had an inside day for the real estate sector. And then communication services gave us an inside day. No change in trend there. We did see consumer staples trade up above the upper channel line. Once again, still on a buy signal here. No change in trend. What didn’t work? Well, it was materials, down just over half a percent on the day. No change in trend for materials. Then looking at what happened to the Canadian market, it was industrials, followed by utilities, real estate, consumer staples and then energy. What didn’t work? Well? Healthcare. And of course healthcare means the marijuana stocks. Industrials were up yesterday. No change in trend there. No change in trend for utilities. Making a new high for this move. No change in trend for real estate. Up on the day. No change in trend for consumer staples. Still on a buy signal here. No change in trend for the energy sector. Having an inside day on Thursday. Still on a sell signal. And then let’s close off with the energy sector. It had an inside day on Thursday, so small gains on the day, not enough to change any trend.

Okay, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Trying to get this presentation out before those employment numbers come out and they could certainly change the direction of the market. Apple is certainly putting in a bid into the market. Apple is in the Dow 30, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. So it’s certainly helping all of the major indices move higher on Friday. Unfortunately, commodities are flat so that’s not going to really help the canadian market coming into Friday’s trading action. Enjoy your day. Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 3, 2024