Author: admin

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and commodities are currently trading below fair value. Dow futures currently down another 100 points. We’ve got bitcoin down over $3,000 in the pre market on Wednesday morning. Now Wednesday is going to be a jam packed day. We’ve got lots of economic numbers coming out and then we’ve got energy inventories coming out later in the morning. Yesterday was a bit of a flash crash. Somebody hit the panic button. And of course, the headline is that the Dow was down over 500 points on the day and back on a daily sell signal. It was month end, month ender supposed to be bullish. It’s supposed to have a bullish bias to it. It’s not supposed to flash crash coming into a Fed meeting. You know, we expect volatility to expand after 02:00 p.m. this afternoon. Not the day before the Fed meeting. Usually people keep their cards pretty close to their chest coming in to today, but that’s certainly not what happened. Yesterday. We saw the US dollar spike higher yesterday. We saw the price of gold and silver come down.

We also saw a reversal in the price of copper. Crude oil was down yesterday. It’s down again in the premarket this morning. Natural gas was down yesterday. That is not unusual. Then we speaking of oil, soybean oil collapsed yesterday, breaking down below the previous low. Looking at bitcoin and ethereum, they’re back in the flypaper channel right now. And with bitcoin down another $3,000 in the premarket, it looks like we’re going to start trading below the Fly Paper channel. So we peaked in early March and we’ve been making lower highs. And now we’re going to start making another lower low. Looking at the bonds, they reversed yesterday. Emerging markets back on a sell signal. Junk bonds down sharply yesterday. Now when I show these bond ETF’s, I’m not expecting too many people to be trading them. The volatility is very low. You can see the big down bar that we had yesterday in the junk bond ETF. That only equates to a little over a half a percent move. So it’s very hard to make money trading these, but we want to keep track of where money is going and the emerging markets, junk bonds, it’s a good way to see if the market is willing to take on risk.

And as you can see, we had a little reversal in that yesterday. Looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, we’re back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. The S&P 500 is also back on a sell signal, closing just below the lower channel line. Now there are a lot of symbols that traded down to the lower channel line like the triple QS, but did not close below it. The equal weighted Nasdaq 100 ETF did close, close below the ishares for the Russell 2000 didn’t. The small caps did and the micro caps didn’t. So there’s a lot of new sell signals from yesterday’s trading action and there’s a lot of new symbols just waiting for one more push before we get a new daily sell signal. Now, the biggest losers yesterday. Well, most of the market was down yesterday, but unfortunately it was a commodity sector that led the market lower. Us gold miners are back on a sell signal. Copper miners are still holding up. Things would change on Wednesday with a close below $45.29. Silver miners back on a sell signal. The Canadian gold miners ETF is still on a buy signal, looking for a close on Tuesday below $19.34. The TSX gold index and ETF, they’re global.

There are some international stocks in here. So it’s not only Canadian gold stocks, but it is a good way to play the gold mining sector. Then looking at energy stocks, the ETF’s are back on sell signals on both sides of the border as of Tuesday’s close. Now, the biggest winners yesterday, and there weren’t that many, but it was marijuana stocks were the biggest gainers yesterday. And there was only a couple when a couple of positive sectors yesterday. But potential change in us policy shot the Alternative Harvest ETF over up over 26%. The Horizons Marijuana Life ETF was up 16% on the day. Huge moves up. We didn’t catch these moves. Unfortunately. Most of the marijuana stocks and ETF’s were on sell signals coming into yesterday’s trading action. The most actively traded us stock yesterday was a Canadian marijuana stock. Tilray trading right up to to the top of the open gap did not fill it in the US. I think it was off by two cent. We’ll look at the Canadian version in a second. Then. The only other thing that worked yesterday were Canadian utility stocks. Otherwise everything else was down on the day.

Now, looking at what worked on the TSX 60, it was Restaurant Brands was up sharply. So that’s Tim Hortons. Then what didn’t work was Cameco, already on a sell signal, so no change in trend there. What worked on the TSX itself, well, Tilray was the big winner. It ran up, filled the gap. So that gap is no longer in play. Let’s see if they can push it higher from here. But it’s not a stock I’m going to chase at the present time. Certainly it was an overreaction to some potential change in policy. The potential hasn’t happened yet, so still got some work to do there. Then, looking at what didn’t work on the TSX, it was. Ivanhoe Mines is back, sitting right on the edge of a new daily signal. We were looking for a close below 18.65 and we closed at 18.66. So again, another symbol just sitting on the lower channel line. On the Dow, the biggest winner was 3M. It’s been on a buy signal for a while, so no change in trend there. The biggest loser was Caterpillar. No change in trend there. It has not broken down below the recent low that might happen today.

On the Nasdaq. The biggest winner was NXP. No change in trend there. Making a new high for this particular move, heading up towards the highs from early March. Then looking at what didn’t work was the GE Healthcare, which gapped lower yesterday. So on Tuesday, our system actually generated a buy signal. You come in Wednesday morning, you check what’s happening in the pre market for US stocks and ETF’s. You can usually see some pre market action in the Canadian market that isn’t really available as much to you, or if it is, it’s not easily available. So, you know, what you need to do is check the bid and ask before you put an order in, just to make sure things haven’t shifted dramatically overnight. Then, looking at what worked on the S&P 500, the big winner was Leidos, which gapped higher, making a new high for this move. And what didn’t work well, it was GE healthcare, just like on the Nasdaq. The second biggest loser on the S&P 500 was Molson Coors. Really disappointing, down nearly 10% on the day. It’s been on a sell signal for most of April. Now, yesterday was rather perplexing for a lot of reasons, but one of them was that we had that big down move in the markets, but a very small move in the VIX.

And the VIX was up on the day, but nowhere near the upper channel line. And certainly we did close above the previous day’s high, but that’s really not a lot of movement for the VIX, considering what happened to the rest of the global financial markets. So we are looking for a close above 1732 on Wednesday to give us a new buy signal for the VIX that is certainly a head scratcher, and I have absolutely no explanation why the VIX did not move with the the rest of the global markets on Tuesday. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far we’ve got stock index futures trading lower. We’ve got bitcoin down over $3,000 in the pre market. We do have a lot of economic numbers coming out, and then we’ve got the Fed this afternoon. So I don’t know what’s going to happen, but what happened yesterday is not a good sign for the health of the overall stock market. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice on Thursday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com dot. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value. Commodities are mixed, with gold trading down over $30, while crude oil is slightly higher on Tuesday morning. Now, this is month end. Month end usually has a bullish bias to it. There’s lots of numbers coming out this morning. None are that important until we get to consumer confidence, which comes out after the market opens. And then the world will be focused on the new, the latest Fed meeting. And of course, volatility expands after 02:00 p.m. Wednesday afternoon. Now, the VIX continued to move lower yesterday. That’s supported for higher stock prices. That would change on Tuesday with a close above 17.62. Now, the Dow, still treading water here, has not taken out last week’s high. That is also true for the TSX. Notice that the TSX 60 is holding up much better than the Dow at the moment. That has a lot to do with anything commodity related. So whether you’re looking at base metals, gold stocks, the global mining stocks, or even materials or the energy sector, they’re all holding up fairly well at the moment.

And certainly no weekly sell signals in any of those. Copper made a new high on Monday, and that is a sign of global economic health. It’s also a sign of inflation. Inflation. Gold is still on a sell signal. Silver’s still on a sell signal. They are trading lower in the premarket this morning. Crude oil still on a sell signal. Pros are starting to give up control on crude oil, so we may see it start to trend lower soon. And natural gas still treading water here, still on a sell signal. No change for natural gas. Then. Looking at the US markets, there’s the S&P 500. Fairly quiet day yesterday, moving up slightly. That’s also true for the Nasdaq. The big winner for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 was Tesla, which popped yesterday up over 15%. Trading up to our next channel line and heading towards the 20313 level, which is where we peaked back in February. The high yesterday was 198.87. So there are probably some sell orders in there, up at 200, holding Tesla back at the moment. We are coming up to the 200 day moving average. We are in the flypaper channel at the moment.

So it’s going to be hard for Tesla to continue to move higher. But it may want to run up and retest the February highs. Then looking at the Russell 2000, the small caps and the micro caps, they’re all back on buy signals as of Monday’s close. Then looking at financials, they’re struggling here. We got back on a buy signal last week and haven’t gone anywhere. That’s also true for us. Banks closing back in the channel, and the regional banks also slipped back into the channel on Monday. Looking at canadian financials, you can see we’re right in the channel for the financial index, and we are at the lower end of the channel for the banking sector. So not a good sign there. We want these stocks to continue to move higher to help prop up the rest of the market. Now, I was scanning through the Dow 30 stocks this morning, and even with the Dow on a buy signal, there isn’t a lot of love here at the moment. So there’s lots of opportunity. On the upside, for the past month, only nine of the Dow 30 stocks are actually positive for the month, and the pros certainly have not come back to take control.

Now, one of the Dow 30 stocks is apple. Apple popped yesterday, ended the day up just under 2.5%, which is pretty good for Apple. It gapped higher. Not a lot of enthusiasm after it opened, but it certainly held the opening. It opened at $173.37 and it closed just above that at $173.50. So it didn’t lose anything. But, you know, from the time it opened to the time it closed, there wasn’t a lot of additional commitment there. It certainly traded higher during the day, but gave up those gains going into the close. So, yes, we gapped higher. Haven’t taken out the previous high just yet, but certainly Apple is back on a buy signal. Now. What’s not working on the Dow? Well, intel’s the big loser, down nearly 30% inside day yesterday. Then we have IBM down over 12% for the last month. Fairly quiet trading. Might be putting in a bottom here. Now, we talked about Home Depot last week as a potential buy setup, down over 12% for the last month. Now, here’s a mistake I made last week. I posted this chart of lumber, and I didn’t realize that our system had screwed up and was going after the wrong contract and went back to 2021.

So unfortunately, I was just looking at the right side of the screen, not even looking down below. And sometimes you just do that when you’re scanning through charts. The real chart looks like this. So, yeah, totally different picture for lumber, much more in sync with Home Depot. And I guess the lack of demand in lumber is one of the reasons Home Depot stock trading lower at the moment. Now, Boeing’s down over 10% for the month. And you can see we are back on a buy signal. As of Monday’s close, we’ve got Salesforce down over 8%, still on a sell signal. No joy for Disney, down over 8%. What’s working? Well, not that many stocks are working and what do you know, it’s a commodity stock which is leading the Dow higher and is up over five and a half percent for the month. And that is chevron. Then we’re looking at American Express, up just under 5%. And you can see all the gains have been made in the last week or so. Three M is still treading water here. It’s up over 4% for the month, but has been that way for quite a while.

And then now we’ve got Goldman Sachs making a new high yesterday for this move, up over 3% for the month even with the big move in the last week. And again, another stock that has made most of its gains, gains just in the last few trading days. We talked about Coca Cola being the big Dow winner last week and it has taken out the previous highs and continue to move higher, but only up 1.41% for the month. So not that impressive if you are holding for the last month, but at least you’re making something. Okay, we are coming into month end and the VIX is still falling. That is supportive for higher stock prices. As we know traders in Chicago, the options traders in Chicago are not that concerned about the future. But of course we have to get over the Fed meeting before the clouds start to part. So it’ll just take a day or two before we figure out which way the market wants to go next. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. com. In this presentation, we’re going to take a look at the Magnificent 7 plus 1. We’ll start off looking at the weekly queues. The QQQ’s Trust (QQQ) had an inside week. They were up nearly 4% on the week after last week’s big disappointment. Now, on a bullish note, yes, it was up on the week, but it didn’t take out the previous week’s low, so that might be a bullish sign going forward. The chip sector  really led the market higher, up over 9% on the week. Again, not back on a buy signal just yet, but we did not take out the previous week’s low, and it was an inside week. So inside weeks are weeks of indecision. The market is really trying to figure out which way it wants to go next. But you’ve got some bullish signs here and certainly a lot of new daily buy signals. So for the triple queues, we’re back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. For the SMH, Semiconductors ETF, we’re also back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. Now, there is an ETF for the Magnificent Seven called MAGS, and it hasn’t been around that long.

It’s not in our database, but I thought I’d take a look at it. Technically, it is also back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. Now, if you haven’t been with us before, the uptrend provides seven daily, seven weekly, and one monthly chart for each symbol in our database. Depending on if you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, you can find charts that are going to help support your trading strategy. Now, in this presentation, I’m going to be switching back from daily and weekly charts for each symbol. We’ll do the symbols in alphabetical order, starting off with Alphabet (GOOG). On the daily chart here, you can see that over the past week, we actually dipped below the lower channel line a couple of times, did not close below it. Of course, closing below it for the first time would give us an official sell signal. We’ve been on a buy signal, so back here at the start of March, we certainly popped higher on Friday, and we actually popped above our projected trading range on the daily charts. Now, when you get a chart like this, you want to know what the next targets are, you can simply do the math, just split the difference between these and add it above, or a shortcut would be to go to the weekly chart.

Now, this weekly chart is from the previous week, from a week ago, Friday. At that time, if we could break through 162.50, then 175 was our next target to the upside. We move ahead a week to this Friday, and that’s exactly where we got to. We traded a bit above 175, and we closed just below it at 173.69. If we can trade above 175, then 187.50 would be our next target to the upside. Looking down on our weekly chart, you can see we’d have to close below 146.17 this coming Friday. Not expecting that to happen. If it doesn’t happen, then that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher weekly. Then moving on We’re on to Amazon.com (AMZN). And looking at a weekly chart, you can see we actually broke through the previous week’s low. That’s bearish. We came back up into the channel, right up to the upper channel line. We’re on the edge of a new weekly buy signal. Moving on to daily chart You can see the Fly Paper channel. The market looks like it’s buying the dip here. You can see we got very oversold this week and on Thursday, and the market took it back up on Friday.

We traded down to the 100-day moving average, and we’re back above the 50-day moving average, so all of that looks bullish. On the daily chart, on Monday, we’re looking for a close above $181.29 to give us a new daily buy signal. Our next target is 187.50. If we can take up the high from April, just above that level, then $200 would be our next target to the upside. Looking down, we were projecting lower prices here, but it looks like the market’s taking care of that, and we’re heading back up. Now, notice how strong Amazon has been. Then, of course, compare that to Apple. Apple (AAPL) is still very broken. You can see the elongated Pressure Zone down here. You can see we’ve made a series of lower highs and lower lows, and we recently made a lower low. So this is all still looking pretty bearish. You can still get a short term rally out of it, even though we’re not expecting it to go very far. You can see we’re struggling here. We’re still on a sell signal. That would change on Monday with a close above $169.98. Next up, we’re looking at Meta Platforms (META), and Meta broke down this week and traded down below the FlyPaper channel.

So now the Fly Paper channel is going to act as resistance. It’s a pretty ugly move for Meta, and it’s clinging to the 100-day moving average and has for the past two days. When we look down, $406.25 is our next target. But if we look to the left here, you can see the big open gap. And so what the market gave us, it took away this week, and the bottom of that gap is $400.50. So we may still be heading down to those levels to fill that gap, but we’ll just have to see there’s a gap above and a gap below, and it’s anybody’s guess which way We’re headed next. Now, looking at the Daily Right Side chart, we came in to Thursday already on a daily sell signal. We need to get up over $495 to give us a buy signal on Monday. Certainly don’t expect that to happen. That upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now, looking at a daily chart of Microsoft (MSFT), we traded up to the upper channel line on Friday, did not close above it. We’re still looking for a close above $412.50 to give us a new daily buy signal for Microsoft.

We traded down below the 100-day moving average, came back up and traded up to the 50-day moving average on Friday. And looking at a weekly chart of Microsoft, again, this is bearish. We took out the previous week’s low, came back. Yes, we were up on the week, 1.8% on the week, but it’s still a bearish sign when you take out the previous week’s low. Then looking at price targets, we’re stuck at the 406.25 level. That has been a price target for a while now. If we can take out the recent high, then 437.50 would be our next target to the upside. But Microsoft is certainly struggling at the moment. Now, NVIDIA (NVDA) was up on Friday. It’s back on a daily buy signal and bounced off the Fly Paper channel. That’s where you would expect people to continue to buy the dip. When we look at price targets here, we traded up to 875. We closed at 877.35 on Friday. 937.50 would be our next target to the upside. We traded above that several times. We actually made a high back here at the start of March, and then a lower high, and then we’ve made a lower high in April.

This is still looking pretty bearish. The sentiment hasn’t changed just yet. The fact that we got a couple of days of upward movement really doesn’t negate what’s been going on over the past couple of months. The market wants to go up to a thousand. Let’s see if we can get buyers to come back in on Monday and continue this rally. Looking at a weekly chart of NVIDIA, 875 is our next target. We’re there now, and $1,000 is our next target above that. Basically, an inside week for NVIDIA, and an inside week is a week of indecisions. Now, looking at the weekly rightside chart for NVIDIA, we actually closed right above the upper channel line. So technically, that’s a weekly buy signal. It was actually a week of indecision. We didn’t take out the previous week’s low, so that’s good for the Bulls, but we didn’t take out the previous week’s high, which is good for the bears. So it’s still a mixed picture here, even though we are back on a daily and weekly buy signal for NVIDIA. Next up, we’re looking at Shopify (SHOP), which is our plus one here. It’s Canada’s biggest technology stock.

It’s traded in New York, and in New York, we’re coming in on Monday on a buy signal right now, which hasn’t got us anywhere. The market’s actually traded lower since we got the buy signal, and we’re looking for a close on Monday below $70.20 in New York. We’re boxed in here between 75 above and 87.50 below, looking for a breakout of that range. You can see the 200-day moving average in New York is holding us in check at the moment. We did get a bearish reversal signal after the buy signal. The next day was a bearish reversal signal. So far, two things haven’t happened. We haven’t been able to take out that high, and the pros have not come in to take control. That’s also true for Shopify (SHOP.TO) traded on the TSX. It’s looking like a very weak buy signal here at the moment. Now, year to date, Shopify is down a little over five and a half % so far, year to date. In Toronto, we’re looking for a close on Monday below 96.26. Now, compare Shopify to Tesla. Tesla (TSLA) is still down over 32 %, even though it’s on its third day of a buy signal.

And looking for a close on Monday below $154.13. This is still looking very weak, a series of lower highs and lower lows, trying to break out above 171.88. If we can do that, then 187.50 is our next target. You can see that we failed to get there over the past couple a couple of months. It’s going to be a struggle, but let’s see how bullish the market wants to be going into month-end. Month-end usually has a bullish bias to it. Automatic money is going to hit the market over the next couple of days. Typically, traders don’t like to trade against that. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it usually dampens any downward pressure on the market unless there’s a global catastrophe, which, of course, you can’t plan for. Now, looking at the moving averages, you can see that we haven’t even got to the 50-day moving average yet for Tesla. And of course, we’re projecting higher prices here. We’ll just have to see how that works. And of course, the fly paper channel is going to be a big wall of resistance as Tesla tries to continue to move higher from here. Now, Friday was a bullish reversal day for Tesla, so that’s one for the Bulls.

But again, the pros are nowhere near taking control on Monday. Looking at a weekly chart of Tesla, to see long term money come back into Tesla, This week, we’d be looking for a close above 187.28. And of course, if that doesn’t happen, that upper channel line is going to move down weekly. Okay, folks, that’s all for this weekend’s presentation. It’s a real mixed picture. It’s one thing to know that the queues and the semiconductors are back on a daily buy signal, but it would be nice if Apple, Shopify, and Tesla would start picking up the pace and get with the program. Yeah, we got a couple of buy signals there, but there’s really no upward momentum at the moment. We are coming into month end. It could be bullish, but a lot of times, if there’s negative pressure, at least it takes some of the downward pressure off. We’ll just have to see how month end turns out this month. Okay, that’s all for today’s presentation. Hey, when I was a kid, I always imagined being a superhero. Maybe you did when you were a kid as well. Unfortunately, I haven’t become a superhero in all these years, but I certainly I feel like a superhero when I donate blood.

If you want to get that feeling as well, if you start donating blood, or if you currently donate blood, please remember, we give discounts to blood donors. If you want more information about that, just go to our homepage. On the menu on the right, there’s a page talking all about our blood donation rewards program. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning. Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please Please consider hitting the Like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next Daily Market Update.

Stephen Whiteside

TheUpTrend.com

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com . In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value, being led higher by the Nasdaq. We also have commodities up with gold up dollar $15 $16 in the pre market. So looking for higher prices across the board on Friday morning, except we do have PPI numbers coming out at 8.30 and that could certainly change the direction of the market. Well, Thursday turned out to be an extremely wild day. It was quite a roller coaster. The market slipped sharply lower after it opened and we saw a lot of volatility. A lot of stocks also recovered going into the close. Now, Alphabet is up in the premarket this morning, leading the market higher already on a buy signal. Snap is also up sharply this morning already on a buy signal. We also have Microsoft recovering this morning. Certainly not going to generate a buy signal, but it is up in the pre market. And unfortunately, at the same time, intel, the sad sake, of the chip sector, is down in the pre market on Friday morning. Now, one of the things I like to do on a Friday morning is to print off some weekly charts and just to take a look, top down, big picture look of what’s been going on this week.

And if we start off with the VIX, the VIX is down nearly 18% on the week, trading back in the channel. So a close by below 13.77 on Friday at 04:00 p.m. Would give us a new weekly sell signal that would be supportive for higher stock prices. Now, the Dow did not take out last week’s low. It is up a little over a quarter of a percent this week. We’re getting inside weeks for the S&P 500, which is up 1.63% on the week. It did not take or retest last week’s low. That’s also true for the Nasdaq 100, which is up over 2% for the weekend. The Russell’s up 1.72% inside week for the Russell. Then looking at the canadian market. And remember, the TSX and the TSX 60 are still on weekly buy signals here. The TSX up a little over a third of a percent. The TSX 60 up a little less than a third of a percent. So no change there. No major changes for commodities. We’ve got crude oil up on the week, $1.35. It’s up a little more in the premarket this morning. Gold, on the other hand, is down $71.30. Coming into Friday’s trading action.

It’s up $17 at the moment this morning, so no change in trend for gold coming into the weekend. Now moving on, let’s take a look at some daily charts from Thursday’s trading action. Starting off with Hertz which ended the day down nearly 20%. They’re trying to unload their inventory of Tesla’s while Tesla is trying to sell more. Even though I said Wednesday’s trading action in Tesla was rather weak, everybody ignored me and Tesla moved up another nearly 5% on Thursday. Huge down day for Meta yesterday. Recovering a lot going into the close, but that’s still a big open gap. Apple moved up yesterday to the upper channel line, so possibility of a buy signal on Friday for Apple. Then we had Amazon down yesterday leaving a gap but recovering a lot going, going into the close. And then we’ve got IBM down over 8% on the day. So looking pretty ugly there for IBM. IBM has been on a sell signal for a month now. Now somebody was asking me about Home Depot this morning and yes, it looks like a good setup. We’re not there yet. We still need to get some upward momentum here, but we may have put in a low yesterday down at the bottom of the panic zones.

Pressure zone has formed. We bounced off the $328.13 level. It was a bullish reversal day, but we didn’t close above the previous day’s high, so still a lot of work to do there. We’re still looking for a close on Friday above $341.90. Not expecting that to happen on Friday. And if it doesn’t, that upper trend line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now what worked yesterday outside of commodities was the semiconductors. They were up nicely yesterday, being led higher by Teradyne. And then we had Marvell trading up to the upper channel line and we had Nvidia up 3.71% on the day. Didn’t close above the previous day’s high, but investors were very happy to see it move higher. AMD also moved higher yesterday, but not enough to give us a buy signal. Looking for a close on Friday above $159.79. Then looking at the Canadian market, the TSX 60, still on a buy signal here. It traded through the lower channel line yesterday but did not close below. It was led higher yesterday by Teck. People are thinking Teck could be a takeover target and Teck led the TSX 60 higher on Thursday.

Next up, let’s take a look at the world of commodities. And starting off with the USO, we’re looking for a close above $80.53 on Friday to give us a buy signal joining gasoline, which is back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. And what do you know? No joy for natural gas, back on a sell signal. And no change in trend there. Then we’ve got the GLD still on a sell signal. That would change on Friday with a close above $218.79. No joy for palladium or for platinum. And no joy for the SLV. Looking for a close above $25.67 on Friday. Now, what worked yesterday, the best performing sector in North America was the Canadian Gold sector. Up back on a buy signal. And we had Barrick up over 3% on the day. Not enough to give us a buy signal. That would happen on Friday with a close above $23.53. And then we’ve got New Gold, which was up over 5% on the day, back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Then looking at US Gold miners, they’re back on a buy signal. Being led higher by Newmont, which was the best performing stock on the S&P 500 yesterday, up over 12%.

Huge move up for Newmont and the gold sector. Then looking at copper miners, back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. We had Hudbay up nicely yesterday. We had First Quantum up nicely yesterday. And then looking at the silver miners, back on a buy signal. We had Wheaton up nearly 2% on the day. We had Endeavor up nearly 3% on the day, back on a buy signal. We also have Fortuna back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Now moving on to the world of energy. Canadian energy stocks were up yesterday. They’re back on a buy signal. And the big winner there was advantage, which is up nearly 3.5% on the day. Still on a buy signal. No change there. What’s not working? Well, the biggest player in the Canadian Energy market is Canadian Natural Resources. Still looking for a close on Friday above $107.49. In the US, the big cap energy stocks are back on a buy signal. The explorers are back on a buy signal. Still waiting for the equipment makers and the small caps. The big winner yesterday was EQT, which was up just under 2.5% on the day, followed by Baker Hughes.

Now remember, all these continuation trades are more high risk. In a lot of cases they’ll run back up and retest the recent high. So there’s still opportunities to make money. Of course there is the smaller chance that we break out and make higher highs. Right now, all the easy money was made down here. This is certainly a trade and if you’re going short and going long. Of course, you’ve got to take all the long trades and see how far you can run them up. But these are considered higher risk trades. These are lower risk trades. When you’ve had an extended sell off and you’re taking a new buy signal, most of the people that don’t like your stock or your sector have already done something about it and it’s less likely they’re going to do something when the momentum starts to change. So that’s why these are lower risk. These are higher risk trades. A lot of people are trying to get money out up at these levels as we did. And so you’re fighting against those people at the same time you’re trying to move it up. So if crude oil, if gold can continue to move higher from here, that could certainly support these stocks in the commodity world to continue to move higher from here.

So let’s hope for the best. But we had a lot of new buy signals in the commodity world on Thursday and they were the sectors that led the north american markets higher. Okay, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. It’s coming up to end of month. Of course, the end of month is a bullish, has a bullish bias to it. The reason for that is the market knows that automatic money is going to hit the market and they don’t usually like to trade against it. That doesn’t guarantee the market moves higher from here, but it takes a lot of the downward pressure off the market when you’re going into month end. Enjoy the rest of your Friday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
April 26, 2024

 

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning. Stock index futures are down across the board. Dow futures currently down about 200 points. In percentage terms, it is the Nasdaq leading the markets lower this morning. Commodities are trading slightly higher in the premarket on Thursday morning ahead of a lot of economic numbers coming out at 830. That could certainly change the overall tone of the market. Now, if you’re with us, yesterday morning I mentioned that we’re going to focus on commodities today. Unfortunately, that’s not the case given on what’s going on in the markets right now. Now yesterday looked like it was a pause day. We saw a slight gain for the VIX. We saw a small pullback for the Dow for the S&P 500, a small gain for the Nasdaq. No change in trend here, of course. Then a small pullback in the Russell 2000 in small caps and micro caps. So no change there. And then we saw semiconductors move up into the channel yesterday before pulling back and closing slightly higher on the day. So no change there. Now the TSX pulled back into the channel yesterday.

We saw some dramatic moves in some individual stocks yesterday. The railroads were down sharply yesterday. So Canadian Pacific back on a sell signal. Big down day for CN. We also saw a huge reversal for Rogers and for the Royal bank. So some explosive moves to the downside in some major canadian stocks on Wednesday. In the US market yesterday morning. At this time, we knew Tesla was going to pop and it certainly popped above our upper channel line and held that going into the close. So technically that is a buy signal. And Tesla was actually the number one performer on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 yesterday, it actually turned out to be a fairly weak day. Now, yes, Tesla was up over 12% yesterday. And I, at the end of the day, it looked fairly weak to me. It looked like mostly short covering. And the reason I say that is it opened at $162.84 and it closed below that at the end of the day. So that to me looks like a very weak day. Yes, there was short covering. Yes, it popped. Yes, it is back on a buy signal, but I’m not overly excited about it.

It’s up $0.50 last time I checked in the pre market. Of course, any pre market numbers I give you here are going to change by the time you see this presentation. Now here’s something unusual. You know, we were talking about the fact that this is a relief rally it’s a risk off rally. And, you know, Coca Cola was the best performing stock on the Dow yesterday. That’s not something you see very often. I’m sure it’s happened before, but I don’t remember seeing it. So, yep, that’s a risk off trade if you’ve ever seen one in the pre market. Yesterday, Boeing was actually up in the pre market and ended the day down nearly 3%. So no change in trend there. Then looking at Meta, Meta came into yesterday on a sell signal. It is certainly on a sell signal now. Down sharply in the pre market, down $65 $70, depending on when you blink. And then we also had IBM, which came into yesterday on a sell signal, is down another $15 $16, $17 in the premarket this morning. And Amazon, which is on a sell signal, is down $4 or so in the pre market.

It was down $2.95 yesterday, down another $4 or so in the pre market. Now commodities. I wanted to spend a little more time on commodities this morning than I’m going to, so I apologize for that. We’ve got lumber hitting a new high yesterday before pulling back, so that’s not good for the inflation picture. And of course, this is house building season and a lot of upward demand for lumber at this time of the year. Then cocoa, chocolate still on a buy signal here. Making a new high a couple of days ago, so that’s not helpful if you want to eat some chocolate. Coffee still on a buy signal here. So upward pressure on coffee prices, that could change on Thursday with a close below $220.12. Then at the other end of the scale, you’ve got cotton making a new low a few days ago, so still on a sell signal. So underwear prices shouldn’t be going up anytime soon. Sugar, another commodity on a sell signal, making a new low a few days ago, so no change in trend there. Now, when it comes to the stock market, of course, there’s gold, there’s crude oil.

Crude oil is the big player, of course, and it affects all of us with energy prices, gasoline prices. Crude oil still on a sell signal. Trading in the channel yesterday, it stuck between $87.50 and $81.25. The market is looking for some catalysts to take it out of that. We are coming into driving season. And of course, any international incident could spark a sharp move up in crude oil prices. The pros currently look like they want to give up control of the price of crude oil. That could certainly happen. If it takes it down below $81.25, that’s going to put more downward pressure on energy stocks now natural gas, which is not an international commodity, it’s more localized so it doesn’t react as much to international events. It’s currently on a buy signal but it’s not going anywhere. Still stuck to the $2.34 level. Pros look like they’re giving up control once again. So really no enthusiasm for natural gas at the present time. Now energy stocks, a lot of them are on short term sell signals right now. Of course, there has not been enough damage to affect long term charts just yet. Energy stocks were up yesterday in the US and you can see we need to close above $96.27. We closed at $96.19 for the XLE.

So no new buy signal there. Now I’m going to say this, any new buy signals and energy stocks right now are high risk trades. I wouldn’t take them. All the easy money in the energy sector has been made. I’d rather wait for a major pullback or not a major pullback, but something that lasts several weeks or several months before I jump back in. If we look at Marathon Petroleum, it’s on a sell signal. Marathon Oil is on a sell signal. A lot of stocks look like that. On the other hand, a lot of stocks look like the index itself, like Exxon. And there’s Exxon generating a new buy signal. But we’re up here at the top of the Panic Zones again. It’s a high risk buy signal. Yeah, we might go back up to the recent high. You can see Kinder Morgan exploded the other day with a new buy signal and it hasn’t gone anywhere since then. So I’m really not enthusiastic about taking new buy signals in the energy sector right now. Looking at the Canadian Energy sector, similar situation. We’re treading water here. We’re right on the edge of technically a new daily buy signal, but not something I want to take.

Canadian Natural Resources still on a sell signal. Then looking at Cenovus, we’re still on a buy signal here. We traded in the channel for a week but have not closed below it. Then looking at Crescent Point again, another stock that recently generated a buy signal. Not something I want to chase at the moment. And then looking at Meg Energy, we’re still on a sell signal here. And last up looking at Suncor. Yeah, we’re back on a buy signal a couple of days ago, but again, we haven’t been able to make a new high just yet. And really again, not something I want to chase up here. If I recently got out, all the easy money was made off the bottom of the panic zones and you should just lock in those profits and sit on your hands for a while. You don’t have to take every buy signal that shows up. Okay folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Lots of pre market activity this morning. I see Microsoft’s down down $8. I see Newmont’s up $2 this morning. So the volatility is going to expand dramatically on Thursday. And of course we’re doing this ahead of those economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.

That could certainly add to the volatility. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning and at Friday morning I’ll take a closer look at the gold sector.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, April 25, 2024

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are mixed, DOW futures are lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading higher this morning, and that might be on the back of a pop in the price of Tesla. Now, commodities are trading lower. We’ve got durable goods numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that may help change the direction of the market. Speaking of commodities, we’ve got energy inventories coming out later in the morning. Let’s start off looking at the VIX, and the VIX came down hard yesterday. Once again, it is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. That, of course, can be supportive for higher stock prices. Obviously, options trades in Chicago are feeling a little less tension over the past couple of days. Now, Tesla is in the news this morning. It’s popping in the pre-market. It is currently trading above the upper channel line. Of course, the enthusiasm right now is mostly short-covering, and we’ll have to see if that enthusiasm lasts throughout the day. We need to close above $160.36 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. Now, the iShows for the TSX-60 and the Dow Diamonds both ended Tuesday on buy signals.

Now, I’m going to split up the presentation. We’ll start off looking at the US market and then move on to the Canadian market. There’s the S&P 500 trading in the channel. If today turns out to be similar to yesterday’s in regards to enthusiasm, we could end the day on a buy signal. A volume was lower than it was on Monday, which was lower than it was on Friday, so we’re still rising on a lower volume. At the end of the day, that doesn’t matter. Anybody’s got stock in their accounts is benefiting from the stocks rising over the last couple of days. There’s the Q’s trading up to the lower channel line, again, on lower volume, lower than Monday, lower than Friday, certainly. Again, we’re moving up on a lower volume here. There’s the Russell 2000 trading up to the upper channel line. There are small caps trading up to the upper channel line and micro caps almost trading up to the upper channel line. So certainly we may see buy signals in those ETFs on Wednesday. Retail stocks were up yesterday, up over 2% and back on a buy signal, joining the financials and banks, which continued to move higher yesterday.

Regional banks continued to get a bid. Insurance stocks are back on a buy signal. Broker dealers are back on a buy signal. We have a new buy signal for US health care. And then utilities continued to move higher on Tuesday. While technology stocks and semiconductors continued to move up on Tuesday, they are certainly still nowhere near a buy signal coming into Wednesday’s trading action. Now, this article might be rather timely. It was from the Wall Street Journal, pointing out just how much money has come out of the ARK ETFs. Of course, Cathy Woods is a great Great stock picker, terrible money manager, but with Tesla popping today, some of her ETFs are going to benefit. Tesla is still one of her biggest holdings. If we walk through the ETFs, you can see which ones the market loves and which ones the market does not love. The Fintech ETF seems to be holding up fairly well. Found support in the FlyPaper channel, starting to move back up from an oversold position. No joy for Genomics. If we get a rally here, it could be up to the FlyPaper channel. That’s also true for the Innovation ETF, which is the big holder of Tesla.

Then you’ve got the industrials. Again, we may move up to the FlyPaper channel. Little more love for the Web or the Internet ETF. Not a lot of love for the Space ETF. It’s been treading water for a while. Out of all of them, this is the one I would avoid the most. It has got a very low Average to Range. I really don’t think there’s a lot of opportunity opportunity in this particular ETF. Moving on to the Canadian market. Well, everything worked yesterday. The big winner in percentage terms was health care, but it’s not really relevant to the market. There’s only four stocks. Back at the start of the century, there was probably 40 biotech stocks on the TSX that we were all following, and now it’s just dwindled down to nothing. Infotech was the second big winner, and the best-performing stock on the TSX-60 was actually Shopify. We’ll take a look at that in a second. And then Communication Services actually worked yesterday, and we’ve got some new buy signals there. So looking at health care, the reason it was the big winner was Tilray was up over 7%, but no new trend there.

The big player in that sector is Bausch, and it actually had an inside day, so nothing going on there. Then Infotec is back on a buy signal, being led higher by the elephant in the room, Shopify. Then we had Hut8 continuing to move higher on Tuesday. We We’re at Bitfarm on its second day of a buy signal. We’ve got OpenText back on a buy signal, and Descartes making a new high for this move on Tuesday. Now, looking at the telecom stocks, we’re back on a buy signal for the index. Rogers is on his second day of a buy signal. Telus is on its second day of a buy signal. And now we have Bell back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Looking at financials, the index actually closed a one penny above the upper channel line. Banking stocks closed a little below. When we look at the bank stocks, we’ve got TD Bank on its third day of a buy signal, now being joined by the Royal Bank back on a buy signal. When we look at the insurance stocks, the three big ones, we’ve got Intact, which has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks, but not going anywhere.

A close below $219.33 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. For a Manulife, we’re looking for a close above $32.34. And for Sun Life, we’re looking for a close above $71.04 to give us a buy signal on Wednesday. Now, looking at the energy sector, we’ve been treading water here for the past couple of days. And then looking at gold stocks, we made a new low for this move before recovering both crude oil and gold are trading lower in the pre-market this morning. We’ll come back on Thursday and take a look at both of those sectors. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Stock index futures are still trading above fair value this morning, while commodities are still trading below fair value. That may hinder the Canadian market moving higher on Wednesday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. Again, at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the commodity sectors.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next Daily Market Update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. Dow futures currently up 100 points, while commodities are trading lower. Gold is down another $30 in the pre-market this morning, while crude oil is down 30 cents. We’ll break today’s presentation up into two parts, starting off looking at the US market, and then we’ll finish off looking at the Canadian market. The VIX came down It went hard yesterday. Certainly closed below the previous day’s low trading right down into the channel. On Tuesday, we’re looking for a close on the VIX below 16.27 to give us a new daily sell signal. What worked yesterday? Well, the chip sector was the big winner, but it ended up with an inside day, so really a day of indecision. After the chips, it was the regional banks, the banks themselves, and then the broker dealers. Those were the other big winners on the day. What didn’t Can you see how it worked? Well, the Dow was up nicely yesterday but didn’t generate a buy signal, so traded right up to the upper channel line.

We saw a lot of strength in some individual Dow stocks yesterday. A huge move up for Goldman Sachs. We had J. P. Morgan come back up and generated a buy signal yesterday, and then we had Procter & Gamble after generating a buy signal on Friday. It was up sharply on Monday. Procter & Gamble is not a stock that you usually see at the top of the performance list, but there it was on Monday, and coming up to a previous resistance, and I’m not sure it’s going to be able to break through that at the present time. Looking at the S&P 500, we were talking about the 5,000 level on the S&P 500 and the $500 level on the SPY. The index itself closed just above the 5,000 level while the SPY closed just below the $500 level. We certainly traded above that. During the day, we got up as high as 502.38 on the day. So no buy signal there. Now, volume was very light yesterday, and you can make a bull case, you can make a bear case based on volume. And what I mean by very light, if we go back to Friday’s action, it was 102 million shares, Thursday’s action was 74 million shares.

And then if we go back a full week, it was 92 million shares were traded last Monday. So definitely a big decline in volume on Monday. So we won’t know for a couple of days if the drop in volume is significant or not. So far, it’s not stopping the market from moving higher. Now, the Nasdaq had an inside day. Technology stocks had an inside day yesterday, so a day of indecision. The iShares for the Russell 2000 traded up to the upper channel line, so did small caps and microcaps were up on the day. No change in trend, obviously, for any of those areas of the market. It certainly looks like we’re still risk off right now. You can see that consumer staples continue to move higher. Of course, there’s a difference between the products that you have to have and the products that you might want to have. And so consumer discretionary was up on the day after making a new low yesterday. So big divergence there at the moment. That looks like risk off. And then we had money go back into financials, back into insurance companies, and back into utilities. Utilities moving up and trading just above the previous high.

So that That all looks like risk off to me. Then looking at the S&P Technology ETF, you can see yesterday was an inside day. Apple was up slightly on the day. Nvidia had an inside day, and then Tesla made a new low for this move on Monday. Now, moving over and looking at the Canadian market, it was all about gold yesterday. Gold was down $67 and change. It’s down another $30 in the pre-market. We’ve got gold and silver back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. The index and the ETF is back on a sell signal. We’ve got a sell signal for the 2X Bull, and we’ve got a buy signal for the 2X Bear. Looking at the gold stocks, the most actively traded gold stock yesterday was Kinross. It’s still on a buy signal. That would change on Tuesday with a close below $8.66. B2 Gold already on a sell signal. No change there. No change for Barracks already on a sell signal. Big down move yesterday for G Mining Ventures. Then looking at Osisko Mining, it was closed down slightly on the day after trading in the channel. We need a close on Tuesday below $2.91. Then we’ve got IAMGold rolling over back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close.

The biggest player in this sector was down nearly 3% on the day, but no sell signal just yet. For a Agnico Eagle, we’re looking for a close on Tuesday below $84.01. Now, looking at the TSX itself, it traded up into the channel. The TSX-60 traded up into the channel. So certainly a possibility of a buy signal on Tuesday. No joy for mid-caps, small caps, or micro-caps. Now, Looking at some of the individual sectors, consumer staples is back on a buy signal as on Monday’s close. Energy stocks still treading water here in the channel. Certainly, if we move up on Tuesday, we could see a buy signal for energy stocks. Not that I would chase them. Financial industrials trading back in the channel. Certainly a possibility of a buy signal on Tuesday. That’s also true for industrials. That’s also true for Infotec. The big winner in the Infotec sector yesterday was Hut 8. It was up over 13% on the day, so back on a buy signal. No joy for Shopify. Shopify closing higher on the day, having an inside day. We’re still looking for a close above $98.97 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal.

Then we saw the telecom stocks trading rate in the channel once again, with Rogers generating a buy signal as of Monday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Let’s see if volume can pick up on Tuesday, and if we can get the rally to broaden out a bit more. Unfortunately, gold is heading lower in the pre-market this morning, so we are expecting to see more sell signals in the gold and silver sector on Tuesday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time, you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next Daily Market Update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. And I hope you’re having a wonderful weekend. The title of this weekend’s presentation is what did we know and when did we know it? And as you can probably realize now that the market has gone from long term risk on to long term risk off. And that happened this week, but it certainly didn’t start this week. If you’ve been with us for any length of time, we’ve been watching the seasonality chart of the major indices and the VIX in the month of March. We were anticipating that the VIX would shoot sharply higher. And of course, a rising VIX is usually bearish for stocks. That didn’t happen in the month of March. And so we anticipated that there might be a time shift this year in which what was supposed to happen in March was going to happen in April. And that’s exactly what happened. If we go back to our chart from April 5, we saw the VIX rise that week, over 23%, giving us a new weekly buy signal. And of course, for long term investors, that’s a big alarm bell and should tell you that you should become extremely cautious, of course, to get a weekly buy signal.

We were already on a daily buy signal, so short term traders already knew to be on guard. And then a couple of weeks later, here we are with the VIX continuing to move higher. And so we’ve had three weeks of fear, and of course, three weeks of fear is enough to put some downward pressure on the markets. And, and we have a lot of new weekly sell signals as of Friday’s close. Now, before the down move in, the overall market started, we are watching the semiconductors or the Sox index run up to the 5000 level. And of course, the market loves big, round numbers. You can see people wearing baseball caps with these numbers on them on Wall street. And here we are looking at the Sox index coming up to 5000. We actually traded above 5000 before coming down and closing just below it. So that certainly told us it was a big round number and a big round area of resistance. And so that was seven weeks ago. The chip sector peaked seven weeks ago, and now we’ve pulled back. At that time, we noted that we were seeing panic buying. And, you know, when people are buying up at these levels, they’re taking on extreme risk.

There’s no easy money to be made up at these levels. I know a lot of people wanted Nvidia to get up to $1,000, but that’s not what happened. So here we are the SOX index came down over 9% this week and is back on a weekly sell signal. Now, looking at a couple of the chips, stocks starting off with a daily chart of Nvidia, you can see we peaked right at the start of March, and then we put in a lower high and started to pull back. So anytime you put in a lower high after making a major high, that’s a very bearish sign, something you should always keep an eye on. And so on Friday, the, the stock was down over $84 on the day, down 10% on the day. Now, the chip stock that I watch the most is Advanced Micro Devices. And again, it peaked right at the start of March with a big reversal day, came down back on a sell signal, and it’s been on a sell signal ever since. A stock that a lot of long term investors watch is Intel, which is one of the Dow 30 stocks.

And you can see back here at the start of the year, it put in a high lower high, lower high, lower high. All of those are very bearish. Then it’s something you should keep an eye on. That when a stock starts making lower highs, that’s usually a sign that the market wants to continue to sell the stock off, and it’s looking for any opportunity to do so. Now, if you’re a student of stock market history, you know that Barrons has a history of being on the wrong side of major market moves. And on March 11, its cover was bet on the bull. And when a market was incredibly overbought at the time, it was certainly a warning sign that the market was probably about to turn down. And so far, that’s exactly what happened. Now, getting back to the VIX, the VIX is still on a weekly buy signal, so we’re going to remain long term bearish on the market as long as the VIX continues to close above 13.47 this coming Friday. If it doesn’t come down to that level, of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher weekly.

Now, if you’re a short term trader, we’re watching the daily VIX. And right now, coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re going to remain short term bearish on the market as long as the VIX does not close below 16.03 on Monday. And of course, that is going to continue to move higher if we do not do that on Monday. Now, when the VIX is moving higher, of course we expect the stock market to move lower. We also expect price volatility itself to expand, which means you’re going to see a lot more days where the Dow might be up 500 in the morning and down 500 in the afternoon, and you could basically call that stock market turbulence. And so when the VIX is on a buy signal, if you’re a short term trader, you’re watching the daily chart. If you’re a long term investor, you’re watching the weekly chart. You’ve got to learn to play defense, which means you’re not trying to squeeze the last little bit out of the market. When the charts are up at the top of the Panic Zones, there’s no reason to take that last trade just because we get one more trade.

It’s a high risk trade, not a low risk trade. So it’s important to learn to play defense. Now, moving on to the major stock market indices, starting off with the Dow. The Dow, which generated a weekly sell signal last week, held up very well. This week it was almost unchanged. And the reason for that was a couple of financial stocks that held up very well going into the end of the week. And the technology stocks in the Dow have been hit hard already. And when you compare the dow to, say, the S&P 500, which was down a little over 3% on the week, now, the S&P 500 for the index, we were trying to hold 5000. For the ETF, we were trying to hold 500. In both cases, we broke down and closed below those levels. We haven’t broken away from them just yet. So it’ll be interesting on Monday to see if we trade back up and try to get up above them once again. But here we are, back on a weekly sell signal. Now, most of the damage was done by some of the big cap tech stocks, and you can really see this, that the Nasdaq 100 was down over 5% and back on a weekly sell signal, while the Nasdaq equal weighted was only down 3.88%. So the heavily weighted big cap stocks in the Nasdaq 100 really got hit hard compared to the equal weighted.

And then if we look at the Next Generation, the next 100 stocks in the Nasdaq, you can see we’re down nearly 4%. So all in all, it was mostly technology stocks that got hit the hardest. The rest of the market certainly got hit across the board. The Russell 2000, the small caps, the micro capsule, all down sharply on the week and all back on weekly sell signals. Now, if we just go down our checklist and we see that money is coming out of technology stocks, it’s coming out of mid caps, small caps, and micro caps, that’s a risk off situation. And a lot of that money has to go somewhere. And this week it actually went into low risk plays such as utilities. That was the biggest winner this week, up nearly 2%. It didn’t really do anything relative to where it’s been trading lately. We saw money go back into regional banks and again, no change in trend there. We saw money go back into insurance, back into consumer staples and back into us banks. And again, no major trend changes there. But, you know, money’s got to go somewhere, and that’s where it went.

One of the reasons the Dow held up so well this week is because of American Express, which was up over 6% on Friday. We also had JP Morgan up just over two and a half percent on Friday. And those two stocks really helped the Dow from closing much lower on the week. Now, some people have to stay invested all the time. So that’s where you see money move out of high risk situations, into low risk situations, and then back and forth, because there are certain people, certain institutions, certain mutual funds where they have to be invested all the time and they don’t have the option that you and I have of either going to cash or even shorting the market or buying those long bear ETF’s now moving from the US market to the Canadian market. The Canadian market’s holding up much better because of commodities. Looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, we certainly traded down to the lower channel line during the week, but at the end of the week we were down less than a third of a percent. So coming into this week, we’ll be looking for a close below $32.72 this coming Friday to give us a new weekly sell signal.

The TSX also came down to the lower channel line, but again, did not close below it and was down just under half a percent on the week. We did see a pullback in mid caps, small caps and micro caps, but again, no change in trend for any of those areas of the market. Now, as I mentioned, it is the world of commodities that are holding up the Canadian market at the moment. Sometimes commodities help us, sometimes they hurt us. And here we are with gold stocks closing up a little, little over half a percent on the week. We do have some individual gold stocks already on daily sell signals, but certainly there hasn’t been a lot of damage done. On the weekly charts, materials were up a little over half a percent while the energy sector was down just over 1% after making a new high the previous week. So a little pullback. And you can see we closed below the previous week’s low. That’s a bearish sign. And again, we do have some stocks that have daily sell signals, but certainly we’re not seeing a lot of damage on the weekly charts just yet.

What’s not working? Well, infotech was down less than half a percent on the week. So here we are, a second week of a sell signal for infotech. Telecom services actually made a new low and then recovered, closing down a little over a 10th of percent on the week. So a new low for telecom stocks. They’ve been in the doghouse for a while now. And then financials were down on the week, just a tick over a third of a percent, and still on a weekly buy signal. So no change in trend for Canadian financials. Moving on to the commodities themselves. Crude oil has a new early warning signal. On the weekly Panic Zone chart, you can see we’re still closing above the upper channel line. $87.50 was resistance. It’s still resistance. $81.25 is acting as support. If $81.25 breaks this week, then we’d anticipate a move down to $75 and then possibly $68.75. Of course, that hasn’t stopped started yet. The pros look like they’re starting to get bearish on this particular sector. But nothing major has happened just yet. When we look at this chart, you can see the line that represents the public is pretty flat.

There isn’t a lot of participation by the public in the futures market. Unlike the USO ETF, you can see that there’s a lot more participation by the public in the ETF than there is in the futures contract. And then looking at natural gas, no joy here. Down a little under 1.5%. And the pros don’t look like they’re interested in taking control at the present time. Now moving from the energy sector to the mining sector, we saw copper continue to move higher this week. Gold was up on the week, having an inside week heading towards $2500. We’re stuck attached to the $2375 level. And then no change in trend for silver. We closed higher on the week, having an inside week, a week of indecision for the price of silver. Let’s finish off today’s presentation. Taking a look at the two stocks I most often asked about on the Canadian side, it’s Shopify. And Shopify moved up to the 125 level but failed and has come back down. We were looking to see if dollar 100 would act as support. It has broken and now we’re heading lower. Some people are talking about potential head and shoulders top here, which would certainly take us down to dollar 75.

There is some level of support here. We’ll look at that in a second. But you can see on the weekly chart. We had the bearish reversal week. And the market moved. The stock moved lower from there. And the pros are giving up control. So that’s a bearish sign. We started to break down below the daily flypaper channel. And we’ve moved down to the 200 day moving average. And currently that is acting as support. So we’ll have to see if that holds. And if we can start getting up above the 100 day moving average. That would be bullish for the stock. Stock. At the same time, we are still closing below the lower channel line. On Monday, we’d be looking for a close above $99.32. If that doesn’t happen, then we’d be looking for that upper channel line. To continue to move lower daily. And then it wasn’t that long ago. That we were looking at Tesla breaking the $218.75 level. And then breaking the psychological support of $200. And then continue to break and break. So here we are breaking the $156.25 level. Our next mathematical target is $125. And then the low from the start of 2023 was $101.81. So those are certainly legitimate targets.

To the downside, I have no interest in this stock whatsoever. On the long side, you can remain short. If you’re short the stock, you can see that we’ve made a series of lower highs and lower lows. And on Friday, we made another new low. So there’s absolutely no reason to have any interest in this stock at this time. If you are following this stock, then the first thing I’d look for is a weekly close above the previous week’s, this week’s high. And, of course, that hasn’t happened yet. If it does, that’d be the first sign something new is happening. That would not be a reason to buy the stock. We’re looking for a close this coming Friday above $119.61. We’re not expecting that to happen. And we’re expecting that upper trend line to continue to move lower weekly. Okay, folks, that is all. For today’s presentation. We posted over 34,000 brand new fresh charts on Saturday. Daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Of course, this is a very small selection of the charts from our database. I hope you found this presentation informative. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Sunday, April 21, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it was a wild night last night. We had a flash crash with Israel attacking Iran. Dow futures were down 450, 500 points. Gold was up dollar 25. Crude oil was up 3%. That has now all dissipated. And yes, stock index futures and commodities are below fair value, but certainly they’re not crashing like they were last night. So we do have the Dow futures currently down about 100 points. So things have settled down. And the market is back to reacting from, say, earnings from Netflix, which are out this morning. And Netflix is down in the pre market now. The VIX is still on a buy signal, so we’re still bearish on the stock market. That would change on Friday if the VIX were to close below 15.66. Now, the market loves big, round numbers, and on the way up they can potentially act as resistance. On the way back down, they could potentially act as support. The biggest one that the market’s watching right now is the $5,000 level on the S&P 500. And here we are closing just above it yesterday.

There’s an open gap here in February. We may fill that gap today, and that could mark the bottom for this particular move. We’ll just have to wait and see. Obviously, if that gap gets filled and the market continues to close lower, that would be certainly a bearish sign if you’re playing the spy. Then we closed just below $500 yesterday at $499.52. Again, we’ve got that open gap from February that could get filled today and again could mark the bottom for this particular move. Some people are watching the 37,500 level on the Dow. The Dow Transport slipped below 15,000 but have not broken away from that level just yet. You can see that we ran up to resistance three times and then failed. And here we are coming down and looking to see if that level will hold. If it doesn’t, of course, we have our targets below. Then we’re looking at the Nasdaq 100, which closed below the 17,500 level yesterday. The Nasdaq Composite closed just below 15,625 in both cases. We haven’t broken away from those levels. So just because we closed below them doesn’t mean we’ve broken away from them back here. We closed below the level and quickly reversed.

And that could certainly happen right now. We’ll just have to wait and see. Now there’s going to be pressure on the Nasdaq this morning because Netflix is trading lower. Yesterday, Netflix closed down $3.13 this morning it’s trading down $25 $30 in the pre market. The Russell 2000 couldn’t hold 2000 so we’re heading towards 1875. Next up, let’s take a look at leveraged ETF’s and these. I can’t emphasize how important these are for your portfolio, especially for your retirement accounts. These leveraged ETF’s allow you to play the market with about the same volatility as a major technology stock and make money not only when the market is going up, but when it’s going down. And recently all the charts we’ve been looking at have been red. So let’s look at some blue charts. Probably the most important selling point for these ETF’s is that you can make money when the market is going down in your retirement account. And you can’t short stocks in a retirement account, but you can certainly buy leveraged ETF’s. Now in the US there’s two X, three X and four X ETF’s. We’ll just focus on the three X ETF’s which seem to be the most popular.

And right now we can be long the bear for the S&P 500, for the Nasdaq 100, for the biotech sector which started selling off. And the bear ETF started going up back in early March. Then we’ve got the energy sector, which had a beautiful run. Energy stocks have pulled back over the past week and so we’re out of the bull and into the Bear ETF. So if energy stocks want to continue to pull back, we can make money while they’re pulling back. Now, there’s lots of other examples of three X ETF’s. You can get them for different sectors, you can get them for the commodities themselves, for gold, for crude oil, for natural gas, for gold miners. You can only get a pair of two X ETF’s. And currently we’re long the bull. And that would change on Friday with a close below $37.03. And then once we get that money in our account, we could go and look and see if there’s a buy signal in the bear. There’s absolutely no guarantee that when you get a signal in one that you don’t get a. That you will get a corresponding signal in the other.

Sometimes you have to wait a day or two and sometimes you get a signal. And then the next day the market is right back where it was the day before. So, you know, just be aware of that. Those things can happen. It’s not an automatic move from the bull to the bear or from the bear to the bull. Sometimes there’s a delay or two, and sometimes it just doesn’t happen. Now, looking at the canadian market, if you want to keep your money in Canada and in canadian dollars, then we just have two X ETF’s. We have a two x bull and bear for the TSX, of course. And currently we’re long the bear. We’re long the bear for the S&P 500, for the Nasdaq 100. And then of course, we have the individual sectors. The energy sector has pulled back. So we’ve moved from the bull ETF to the bear ETF for the energy sector. So far, there hasn’t been a lot of upward momentum for the bear ETF so far. And so you know what? We may get kicked out of this and have to go back into the bull ETF for the energy sector.

And, you know, for all of these ETF’s, we’re in one or the other. We’re never in cash for very long. As I mentioned previously, sometimes the signals don’t, you know, happen on the same day, but you want to either be long the bull or long the bear. Then looking at the gold miners, we’re still long the bull here. That would change on Friday with a close below $15.81. And then looking at the bear ETF, we’d be buyers on a close above $4.27. Okay, folks, that’s all I wanted to cover this morning. Leveraged ETF’s. They’re a really important component of anyone’s portfolio, especially in a retirement account where you just can’t short stocks. And the two x three x ETF’s, the volatility is very similar to a technology stock such as Apple or Netflix or Tesla, for example. They’re not long term investments. They are certainly not something that you buy and hold. They work well when the market is trending, but they are certainly never to be considered as buy and hold investments. They have to be actively managed. And that’s exactly what we’re doing here. We’re actively managing our portfolio. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, April 19, 2024