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Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television. Well, we made it through month end and we were looking for some selling this week and we got some selling. In fact, this week was a very sloppy week. Starting on Monday, we had a bearish reversal day on the DOW. We saw fall through to the downside on Tuesday, which tells us that Monday should be the high for this particular move in the market. We continued to see fall through to the downside on Wednesday, and that’s after the market was able to react to the Fed Minutes and to the Fed Press Conference. We also continued down on Thursday. Now, coming in to Friday, we had the employment numbers and the market reacted very positively to positive employment numbers. And that is a little bizarre. Those positive employment numbers basically tell the Fed that they have no reason to stop raising interest rates at this time. And so what I would have assumed would have caused the market to sell off on Friday, caused the market to actually go up on the day. Now, the DOW and the S&P 500 traded down to the 200 day moving average and bounced.

So that is still a significant area of support. Now, moving from daily to weekly charts, the DOW was actually the biggest loser of the four major indices that we follow, down 1.26 %. Notice how big the bar is. It traded all the way down to the lower channel line after making a higher high this week, we closed right at the upper channel line. So certainly the DOW could generate a sell signal this week with a close below $328.58. Now, the S&P 500 it’s still closed above the upper channel line, down a little over three quarters of a %. Notice where resistance is, the high from earlier this year, just above where we traded up to this week. So we may be able to test that this week. Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq had an interesting week, actually an inside week with a double top there up at 323.76. So it’s just we’re a whisper away from making a new high for the Nasdaq this week. Then looking at the semiconductors, they had an inside week down ever so slightly. And then looking at the Canadian market, the ishares for the TSX 60 closed down just under half a % after making a new high for this move.

Now, there was a lot of stocks that had very exaggerated moves this week, including Shopify up over 26 % on the week. Then we saw Thompson Reuter’s down just under 10 %. We saw Gildan Activewear down over 10 % on the week. Now, Walgreens was the biggest loser on the DOW this week, down 8.7 %. The biggest winner on the S&P 500 was Royal Caribbean, up 15.56 %, followed by Live Nation, up 13.84 %. Then down at the bottom of the list, we had CBS Paramount down over 27 % on the week. That was a huge move lower, followed by Estee Lauder down 17.5 %. In both cases, we’re still holding the lows from last fall. We’ll have to see if those lows continue this week. Rubbermaid, on the other hand, have already broken through the fall lows, and they’ve broken through the 2023 lows, down 16.79 %. Now, regional banks are still in the news, and I just want to make something very clear, even though we’re looking at these charts. I have never bought a regional bank. I have no interest in any of these regional banks. We are watching the regional bank sector closely because it is a financial crisis that could roll over into other areas of financial markets.

We know that already. It’s already happened, but it could continue to get worse and pull down the US financial system. So that’s why we’re watching them closely. I would not buy any of these individually. Now, if you want to be involved in this sector, do it through the ETF and spread your risk out. Now, the ETF was down again over 10 %, making a new low for this move. If it starts to turn around, if you think regional banks are going to get saved, if you think that there’s light at the end of the tunnel, then do the ETF. Don’t do the individual regional banks. Now, they are incredibly volatile. And on Friday, we saw some huge numbers that have attracted a lot of people. And the only people that those huge numbers benefit, are the people that bought on Thursday. And so, for example, Zion was up nearly 20 % on Friday. The one everybody’s talking about is PacWest, which was up over 80 % on Friday. The only people that benefit from that are the people that bought on Thursday. Can you imagine buying a regional bank on Thursday after it made a new low and broke down below the low from March?

Can you believe that? But that’s the type of risk you have to take. But that’s not the type of risk we want to take. That would just not be a good thing. Please don’t do that. These regional banks are all one press release away from being worthless. So please don’t be buying individual regional banks. Now, this seems like a very good place to drop in a little tutorial on the mathematics of loss. This is not something they teach you in school. Let’s say, for example, you had a regional bank that was trading at $100 two years ago. It’s now down $95, currently trading at $5. It’s pretty easy for a high school student to figure out you’ve lost 95 % of the value of this particular stock. Now, the problem is how much does the stock have to go up for you to get your money back? If you ask nine out of 10 people on the street, they’ll tell you, Well, it has to go up 100 % for you to get your money back, at least. And they’re totally wrong. That’s not how much it has to go up. 95 %, 100 % isn’t going to get you your money back.

In this particular example, it’s got to go up 1900 % for you to get your money back. And that’s not something that statistically is going to happen, maybe not in your lifetime. So a lot of people end up going down with the ship and the ship never rises again. I’m not sure if you’re aware of this, but at one time, the US had a very vibrant savings and loan industry, and that all dried up when the savings and loan industry collapsed. And there’s a pretty good chance that the regional bank industry is also going to collapse in the US. And some of these stocks will just never, ever, ever recover. Let’s move on to commodities. It was a negative week for energy with crude oil down 6.31 %. 62.50 still holding as support. I think the low of the week was 63. So if that breaks, then $50 would be our next target to the downside. Natural gas down nearly 10 % on the week. If you look at our weekly price targets, 156 is our next target. The daily target right now is 234. Below that is 156. So we’re still holding at the 234 level.

We closed at 232. The high of the week was 234.90. So we’re still stuck to the 234 level. Was expecting more of a bounce. We did see some buying in April, but nothing to take us up to 313 or 391. Still waiting for that to happen. Looking at energy stocks, they were down on both sides of the border. order, back on sell signals for the TSX and for the SPY Energy Sector ETF, both down, closing below the lower channel line this week. Now looking at the mining sector, starting with copper. Copper was down ever so slightly on the week, so no aggressive selling in copper. Gold, on the other hand, made a new high for this move, pulling back, going into the end of the week. We’re still stuck to 2,000. Our next target is 2,125. Silver is still stuck to 25. Our next target is 28.12. Then looking at the mining stocks, the GDX was up 5.42 %, still stuck to 34.38. And then looking at the XGD.TO, it was also up on the week, up 4.34 %, still stuck to $20.31. Let’s finish off this weekend’s presentation with the VIX or the fear index.

If you’re a long term investor, we’re still long term bullish on the market. That would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close above $22.38. Now, if you’re a short term trader, it’s been pretty sloppy the last couple of weeks. We went on a buy signal, then a sell signal, this week another buy signal. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re still on a buy signal. We traded down to the lower channel line on Friday looking for a close below 1685 on Monday to give us a sell signal, and that would turn us short term bullish on the market. Looking at the price targets, you can see that we traded up towards the 21.88 level. You can see support at 15.63 is currently holding. Now up at that 21.88 level, that’s where you get the 200 day moving average. You can see it’s been a while since we punched through that. That is currently acting as resistance. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Last week was very sloppy. A lot of traders and investors were on the wrong side of individual stocks, and we saw huge explosions in the opposite direction.

A lot of those stocks I wouldn’t be chasing higher at the moment. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside from the uptrend.com with today’s look at North American stock market trends. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading up above fair value. That has a lot to do with Apple. We’ll take a look at that in a second. What we’re seeing in the premarket is certainly not going to unwind the damage that has been done so far this week. Let’s start off today’s presentation looking at some premarket activity. Today it’s all about Apple. Now, Apple traded through the lower channel line yesterday, did not close below it. So we’re coming into Friday still on a buy signal, currently trading above the recent high from the other day up at 169.48. Of course, that number is fluctuating every second. If we can get over 170, then 175 comes into play. We recently took some money off the table at 168. 75. Would love to sell some more shares at 175. Now, Shopify was up in the premarket yesterday. It performed a lot better after the market opened than it was doing in the premarket. Now we came into Thursday’s trading action on a new sell signal from Wednesday’s close on both the New York and Toronto listing.

Of course, if you had an order in to sell, if you actually took that sell order, you would have got filled at the open on the TSX. That was $73 yesterday. If you waived off that sell order, sell signal because you saw that the stock was trading higher in the premarket, then of course you may have had some price targets in. This is the chart from the day before. Our next price target was 68.75 followed by the high from early February at 73.03. You may have put an order in up there or you may have put your next order in at 68. 75. I hope you had orders in at both places. Then our next target above that was 81.25. Of course, looking three lines up from where we’re trading on Wednesday, that is certainly expecting a very aggressive move. What do you know? We almost hit 81.25, got as high as 81.20. If you had an order at 68.75 or 73.03, they certainly got filled at the open. We actually opened at 73 and then very quickly those two orders got filled. Your order at 75 got filled, but if you had an order in at 81.25, we’re still waiting to fill that and that could happen on Friday.

Now, the midterm chart, of course, gives you a little more breathing room and compare that to the right side chart, you wouldn’t have got all the way down to the lower channel line from Wednesday’s trading action. We did indicate that we’re potentially going to see some weakness there. That, of course, has completely reversed and now we’re looking at strength to the upside. Now, Regional Banks continued to move lower yesterday. They were down 5.45 % and making a new low for this move. Looking at our panic zone chart, of course, we look for shorting opportunities off the top of the panic zones. We don’t look for shorting opportunities down here. That’s when you often see short squeezing take place because the public gets interested in shorting down here. They don’t get interested in shorting up here. This is where you make all the money. This is where you take on all the risk. Now, when we look at this regional bank ETF, you can see that we were expecting a bottom here, and the chart started to turn blue, but we couldn’t get more money to come back in, which is a good thing as this particular ETF has continued to move lower, it looks like we’re setting up to create another Pressure Zone here.

So we may be getting close to the bottom, but we’re still seeing aggressive selling. Pacwest was down over 50 % yesterday, making a new low for this move. Now, we don’t cover all of the Regional Banks that are publicly traded. We try to focus on the ones that were included in any of the major indices or ETFs. We see Comerica down again yesterday, down over 12 %. We’ve got Zion Bancorp down over 12 %. Bank of California made a new low for this move yesterday, down nearly 7 %. Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX continued to move higher. It is back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. It is the Nasdaq that’s still holding the market up. It is still on a buy signal coming into Friday’s trading action. And of course, it is moving up in the premarket for the triple Qs. We’re looking for a close below 316.02 on Friday. Next up, let’s take a look at the most actively traded stocks from Thursday’s trading action. We have already looked at a couple of them. Starting off in New York, we’re looking at Advanced Micro Devices. And this is the chart from the second.

We actually closed just above the upper channel line. We were looking for a close above 89.78. We closed at 89.91. So that’s a buy signal, except you come in the next day and you see that we’re going to open up below the lower channel line, so you don’t take that buy signal and so you’re still sitting short Advanced Micro Devices. Yesterday was a wild day. We traded up, we traded above the upper channel line, but settled down just above the lower channel line. So we’re still looking for a close on Friday above 89.44. Looking at PacWest, we already talked about this stock. Then we’ve got Tesla. Tesla has been trading water for a couple of weeks now. Looking for a close on Friday above 166.71 to give us a buy signal. Shopify, we’ve already looked at. Then we’ve got Bank of America making a new low for this move, but not a new low altogether. Then we’re looking at Ford still on a sell signal that would change on Friday with a close above $12.08. Then we’ve got CBS or what’s now called Paramount gapping sharply lower yesterday, closing right at the low of the day.

So investors very angry at this particular stock. Then we’ve got Apple, which we talked about. Then we’re looking at SoFi, making a new low for this move before recovering, actually closing up on the day. Then we’ve got KeyCorp, again, another one of the Regional Banks making a new low for this move. Then Wells Fargo making a new low for this move. And our last stock in this list is Carnival, currently on a buy signal, had a wild day yesterday, closed in the channel, looking for a close below $9.12. Next up, let’s take a look at the TSX most actively traded stocks from Thursday’s trading action. Starting off with Embridge. Embridge is on a sell signal but is not going down easily. Closing back in the channel yesterday, looking for a close on Friday above 53.66. Then looking at Shopify, we talked about this earlier. Then next up, we’re looking at Suncor, making a new low for this move, taking out the low from March. That’s a bearish sign. Then looking at K 92, back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Then we’ve got Barrick making a new high for this move, hitting our next price target at 28.13. Now we’re up at the top of the projected trading range.

You can either do the math or go to the weekly chart. This chart was published last weekend, so we hit 28.13 yesterday. Now 31.25 is our next target to the upside. Is that a legitimate target? Well, it was where we peaked out back in the spring of 2022, so it’s certainly a legitimate target to the upside. Looking at the TD Bank, and of course, we talked about the fact that short sellers have been targeting the TD Bank. Well, they’ve been targeting it in vain. We traded higher yesterday, traded through the upper channel line, did not close there. We need to close on Friday above 82.55 to give us a buy signal. Cenovus Energy making a new low yesterday before recovering, actually closing up two cents on the day. Then we’re looking at both manual life and Sun Life, both back on sell signals as of Thursday’s close. Athabasca Oil Sands making a new low for this move. Also seeing a new low for Canadian Natural Resources and a new low for CIBC, which is now starting to trade below the low from March. Okay, folks, that’s all for me for this morning. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on the weekend.

Have a great day, have a great weekend, and we’ll talk to you again soon.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen White side here from the uptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are below fair value. So so far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Thursday morning. A lot of the focus this morning is on those US regional banks. Looking at the VIX, the VIX had an inside day yesterday, closed right at the upper channel line. We still need to close on Thursday above 1844 to give us a buy signal. Of course, a buy signal for the VIX would be negative for the overall stock market. The DOW diamonds are now back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close, joining the iShares for the TSX 60. We also have the S&P 500 back on a sell signal. It didn’t close below the previous day’s low, so that is acting as support at the moment, but we are going to open lower on Thursday morning. Then the queues are still on a buy signal. Technology stocks held up fairly well yesterday, looking for a close on Thursday below 315.85. Now, the US banking sector is still very stressed at the moment.

There’s the Bank ETF making a new closing low for this move. Not a new low, but we’re going to do that this morning. There’s lots of news about regional banks out in the premarket, and that’s putting downward pressure on the overall market. Jp Morgan, once again, back on a sell signal. So twice it gapped higher, twice it gave up those gains, and we’re back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, the TD Bank is coming into Thursday on a sell signal on both sides of the border, but it is trading higher in the premarket this morning, and that has a lot to do with the fact they’ve given up their quest to buy a US regional bank. Now, remember, TD Bank has been the target of short sellers and very vocal short sellers. You can be short of stock and not be vocal about it, but these short sellers have been trying to talk the stock down and the stock is going in the opposite direction this morning. And so we should see some short covering to get this stock to pop at the open. Then looking at US Bank Corp, we made a new low for this move yesterday.

We’re continuing lower this morning. And a stock that’s really in the news this morning is PacWest. This regional bank is down over 36 % in the premarket and that would certainly be a new low for this stock. And then looking at Goldman Sachs, currently short this stock and it made a new low for this move on Wednesday. The biggest loser in the US financial sector yesterday was market access, down over 6 % on the day. Looking at crude oil, crude oil was down once again on Wednesday. It is up slightly in the premarket this morning, but not enough to change anybody’s mind on this sector. Canadian energy stocks were down 1.66 % yesterday. One of the biggest losers was Baytex Energy, which is down nearly 3 % on the day. In the US, US energy stocks were down 1.89 %. Biggest loser in this sector is Marathon Petroleum, which was down nearly 6 % on the day. Okay, folks, that’s all I wanted to talk about this morning. I’ll be back on Friday morning, and at that time, we’ll walk through the 10 most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border. Have a great day.

Next time you hear my voice again is on Friday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with a quick two minute market update. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. So far it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Well, yesterday the story of First Republic came to an end.

And so that stock is no longer in play. Even with it coming off the board, we saw the Regional Bank stocks continue to trade lower, down nearly 3% on the day. Really no upward or downward trend here for the past month and a half. Still waiting for something new to happen. At the same time that First Republic went off the board, JPMorgan picked up some of their assets and it popped yesterday.

That helped put a bid into the DOW and the S&P 500, but it reversed going into the close. So this is certainly not something I would want to chase up here. There’s nothing low risk about this. And then the DOW itself generated a bearish reversal signal on Monday, did not close below the previous day’s low. So it’s still a negative signal, but not that bad.

And we had a similar signal for the Canadian market, which hit a new high yesterday before pulling back again. Did not close below the previous day’s low. There’s the bearish reversal signal. These are one day events. They still need to be confirmed.

You can see that we had several bearish reversal signals over here go off, but the market still continued to move higher. This one marked the top for this particular move. This one the market waved off and continued to move higher. So one day events still need to be confirmed, and they would be confirmed on Tuesday with a lower close. Looking at the bond market, we had a big move in the bonds yesterday ahead of the Fed meeting, which starts today.

So today probably won’t be that volatile a day. We expect volatility to expand dramatically after 02:00 P.m. Wednesday afternoon. And of course, if bond prices are going down, bond yields are going up, and we saw that across the board on Monday. Now, the VIX made a new low yesterday before closing slightly higher on the day, looking for a close on Tuesday above 18.38 to give us a new buy signal.

That, of course, would be negative for stocks. Now, the stock market is on a timetable, whether you’re looking at quarterly earnings or you’re looking at the market’s reaction to Fed meetings. If we want to project into the future to see when we could see our next low risk buying opportunity, if you take a measurement from the Pressure Zone that happened in the fall to the pressure zone that happened around Christmas, and then add that projection out, that takes you into the pressure zone that happened in March. And then if we measure, take the exact same distance and add that that takes us into early June. So that’s probably where we’re going to see the next low risk buying opportunity start to form.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Should be a fairly quiet day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Sunday evening. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television. While stock index futures have opened on Sunday night and they are trading right around fair value. So the market is waiting to hear what’s going to happen with the regional bank, First Republic. That news should come out sometime in the next 24 hours. Now, we always talk about the end of month bias being bullish, and this month it was overly bullish. We saw the market up on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. In fact, we saw the Nasdaq 100 make a new high on Friday. And so we can’t rely on that every single month. But we do acknowledge that there is a bullish bias going into month end, and typically that will stop us from getting sold off aggressively. This month it turned out to be a very bullish time for the market. Big winner on Friday was Charter Communications, gave a buy signal on Thursday. Big fall through to the upside on Friday. And the big loser on Friday was First Republic Bank, and it was down over 43 %, down over 75 % for the week.

And then after the markets closed on Friday, it was down another 33 %. So I think the stocks go into zero, even if the bank actually gets saved at all. I think stock investors are going to get totally wiped out here, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Now, looking at monthly charts for the DOW, we’re up 2.48 % for the month, up over 5% year to date. The DOW is still on a monthly buy signal. Looking at the S&P 500, we’re only up 1.46 %, up 8.59 % on the year so far. So still trying to deal with the upper channel line. Now, the Nasdaq 100 was up just under half a % on the month and up over 21 % year to date. So a big up move in March and very little movement in April. Now, you’ve probably heard me mention before that most of the gains in the US stock market this year can be attributed to a handful of stocks. And we’ve currently got Apple responsible for 25 % of the gains in the S&P 500. And you’ve got similar results for the Nasdaq. Then Microsoft, responsible for a little over 20 %.

Then NVIDIA and Meta, above 10 % each. And similar situation for Amazon. And then Alphabet is just below 10 %. Those are most of the gains in the stock market. It has not been a broad rally in 2023. Now, looking at those stocks, Apple made a new high this week, so that’s good. We’ve got Meta making a new high. Microsoft had a huge up week, making a new high. Then NVIDIA did not make a new high, but it was up 2.32 % on the week. Then Amazon pulled back 1.41 %, still trading above the upper channel line. Then Alphabet was up 1.83 %, did not make a new high for this move, but still trading and closing above the upper channel line. Now, what’s not working? Well, the ARK Innovation ETF was down nearly 11 % on the month. It was actually an inside month for them. So a month of indecision looking for a breakout or breakdown of the previous month’s high or low. Then looking at Berkshire Hathaway up 6.41 % for the month. So just two interesting options to look at. Then we’re looking at the Nasdaq composite, which of course is much broader than the Nasdaq 100, has over 3,000 stocks.

It was up just a couple of ticks over unchanged. Still on a monthly sell signal here, that hasn’t changed, even though we’re up over 16 % for the year so far. Then another broad look at the market, midcap, smallcap stocks down 1.86 % on the month and year to date, we’re up 0.44 %. Then looking at semiconductors, big reversal, we’re down 7.3 % for the month. So a complete reversal of last month’s trading but did not close below the previous month’s low, up over 18 % so far this year. Now looking at the Canadian market, the broad TSX Composite, which has over 200 stocks, closed up 2.67 %, up 6.46 % for the year so far. And then the TSX 60, so a much more focused look at the Canadian stock market with those 60 big cap stocks up a little more on the monthly basis and a little more year to date. Looking at the VIX, the VIX continued to move lower this week. It had a very wide bar. We’re going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $22.84 this coming Friday. Looking at a daily chart, you can see on Tuesday we generated a buy signal, had an inside day on Wednesday, and then Thursday and Friday the VIX came down.

We need to close on Monday above $18.56 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX. And we came down to our next price target, 15.63. We closed at 15.78 on Friday. Let’s finish off with a quick look at commodity, starting with copper. Copper is down on the week, did not close below the previous low from back in March. That’s still acting as support. We are still on a weekly sell signal here, no change there. The price of gold was actually up on the week, $9.60. We do have that early warning signal in there. We have closed below $2,000 for the second week in a row. We are still closing above the upper channel line, so we need to close below 1929.80 this coming Friday to give us a sell signal for gold. Silver, on the other hand, is performing much better. No early warning signal. We’ve closed above $25 for the last four weeks in a row, so that has not changed. We certainly traded below $25 this week. We’ve got some little white space between the upper channel line and the bar. We did not close below the previous week’s low, so things are looking a little stronger for silver.

But if they’re going to go down, they’re both going to go down at the same time. Looking at crude oil, we’re in the channel at the moment, and so we’ve been there for the last couple of weeks. We need to close this coming Friday below $71.73 to give us a new sell signal. Then, of course, we’ll be looking to see if we can hold the lows from back in March. You can see we’re stuck in the Fly Paper channel. We’ve been stuck in or attached to the Fly Paper channel for a few months now. We’ll be looking to see if we can break away or break down below the March lows. Then looking at natural gas, you can see we’ve got a nice area between where we are right now and the Fly Paper channel. That would be a very profitable trade. If it ever got started, it still hasn’t got started. So we’re looking for a close as coming Friday above $3.15 to give us a weekly buy signal for natural gas. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Waiting to see what happens to First Republic. That’ll probably be a clue to tell us which way the market wants to go next.

We got some Chinese economic numbers out yesterday which were bearish, but nobody seems to be too concerned about that on Sunday evening. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. you..

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen White side here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value across the board. DOW futures currently up 137 points. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Thursday morning. Now, I won’t be in on Friday, but I will be back on the weekend. Now, we are coming up to month end and month end usually has a bullish bias to it. That doesn’t stop the market from falling, but it usually cushions the market if it wants to go down. Why do markets tend to go up at the end of the month? Well, automatic money is going to come into the market and traders don’t usually like to trade against that automatic money that usually goes into mutual funds and ETFs. Now, yesterday morning, this time we knew Microsoft was going to spike at the open and that our next price target to the upside if we took out the previous highs, was 296.88. And that’s just where we landed and closed just below that level yesterday. I didn’t get over $300. The high of the day was $299.57. Now, we were already up at the top of the Panic Zone.

So when you see a new pop like this up at these levels, it’s not something I would want to chase unless, of course, I short the stock and then I want to cover my short position. But I don’t necessarily want to go long up at these levels. Now looking at Meta, Meta is also going to pop this morning. We know that it’s currently trading up at the 234 level. You can see the differences between the price target lines here. So you know that the next price target is 237.50. So we’re up just below that level this morning. Again, we’re starting at the top of the panic zones already, and this isn’t something I would want to chase if I was not already long meta at this time. Now, looking at the Russell 2000, it continued to move lower, so the rest of the market is going in one direction. There’s a handful of big cap stocks going in the other direction. Now, Canadian small cap and microcap stocks had a nice run for a couple of weeks, and that, of course, had a lot to do with interest in the mining sector. Now, as we come into the end of April, we should go back and take a look at what we were looking at back at the start of April.

On April fifth, I posted a video titled We Hit a Wall, and we were looking at areas of the market that had run up to resistance and stopped. One of the biggest ones, of course, was the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq, both not able to break out above resistance during the month of April. Now we’re starting to pull back down, even though we’ve got some of these big cap tech stocks popping at the moment. Now we’re also looking at the Russell 2000 that ran up to 1812.50 and was unable to break out above that level through the month of April, and now we’ve broken down below support. That is also true of the DOW transports. Now the DOW Transports did trade above the early April highs, but they never really broke away from resistance. Now, we’ve broken down and we’ve broken down below the March lows. So that’s not a good sign. Now, some areas of the market that did break out above resistance and that was the DOW, but the DOW has also come back down and is trading below those April lows. And the TSX 60, which had a lot of help from the gold sector, ran up two lines above resistance.

So at the start of the month, we were looking at 12, 1875 as a resistance, and then we broke out above that, moved up two lines to 1250 back up to the highs from the start of the year. Now, if we can take out the 1250 level, then the 1265.53 level and the 1281.25 level will come into play, but only if we can break out above the 1250 level. Let’s move on to the most actively traded stocks from yesterday’s trading action, starting off with First Republic. If you were with us yesterday morning, I mentioned the stock would probably be down another 30 % and ended the day down another 29.75 %. Tesla continued to move lower. It’s broken down below the top of the open gap heading towards 150 and then the bottom of that open gap. If we take out the bottom of that gap, then 125 would be our next mathematical target. But also notice there’s a gap just under that level as well. So that could certainly be a target to the downside if we keep going from here. Amazon’s still on a buy signal, still long. Amazon, no change there.

Microsoft, we talked about earlier. Then we’ve got Marathon Digital trading up to the upper channel line, but then retreating, going into the close, closing just below the lower channel line. No joy for NIO, didn’t take out the previous day’s low. That might be the start of something. Then we’ve got Alphabet traded up to the upper channel line but did not close above it. Looking for a close above 106.42. Then we’re looking at Ford, Ford trying to hold 1150. Then looking at Activision, which had the big drop yesterday. Now, this would be a losing trade if you had have bought here when we had the last buy signal, if you had have held on and not taken any profits, you would be looking at a losing trade. Of course, what I try to teach people is to take profits along the way. If you had an order in here at $ 81.25, it would have got filled at the open up here. And so you would have been able to lock in some nice profits up at those levels. And the fact that it dropped a lot yesterday, if you hadn’t been following what I teach, you would have only had a partial position left and so you still would have made money on the trade.

Advanced Micro Devices, no joy there. Still on a sell signal, a close above $90.85 on Thursday would give us a buy signal. Let’s finish off today’s presentation taking a look at the TSX most active. Starting off with Cenovus, big down day for Cenovus. Then we’ve got the Royal Bank, still on a buy signal. It traded through the lower channel line for the last two days but did not close below it. So we’re looking for a close on Thursday below 131.50 for 4. Then we’ve got a new low for Suncor. We’ve got Manulife still trading in the channel here for the last two days. A close below 2572 would give us a sell signal on Thursday. Second day of a sell signal for Athabasca Oil. Then we’ve got Sandstorm Gold still on a sell signal here that would change on Thursday with a close above $8.04. Then we’re looking at TC Energy still on a sell signal, no change there. No change there, no change for HUT 8. Looking for a close on Thursday above $2.56 to give us a buy signal. Then Enbridge, still on a buy signal that would change on Thursday with a close below 53.03.

Then we’re looking at the TD Bank, which was actually up two cents yesterday. Td Bank would be back on a buy signal with a close above 82.64. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Thursday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Good morning everyone. Welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. So so far it looks like we’re gonna see a little buying at the Open on Wednesday morning and most of that buying is going to be in the tech sector. Now Tuesday finally gave us a buy signal for the VIX and sell signals for all the major indices including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the TSX 60.

Now what worked and what didn’t work on Tuesday? Well looking at the major sectors you can see on the TSX there was only one winner and that was utilities up a little over a quarter of a percent. While energy stocks were the biggest losers in the US market, there were no winners and materials were the biggest losers on Tuesday. Now there’s lots of stocks in the news this morning, a lot of earnings out for companies that we follow on a regular basis. There’s one that I want to talk about and that’s Activision.

It was supposed to be taken over by Microsoft and it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. The UK regulatory body has said no. And so now Activision is down about 10% in the pre market. Now if you go back in time, the deal started way back here back at the start of 2022. If I had owned this stock back then, I would have taken the money and run.

Now I actually took Activision out of the database for the longest time and put it back recently. I am not going to sit around and wait for a better offer. I’m not going to sit around and wait for somebody else to put an offer on the table. That usually doesn’t happen. And what often happens is what’s happening right now is deals don’t go through.

So I’m not going to sit for over a year with my money in Activision waiting to see if there’s a better deal on the table. And as you can see we were recently trading back up to the high we saw back at the start of all this and so now we’re trading down this morning. So this would have been dead money this whole time. You would have had no mathematical advantage to holding this stock for all this period of time. There are lots of other things to do with your money than just sit and hold and wait for the deal to finally go through.

Now Microsoft, which was down yesterday, it’s been down the last couple of days, is trading higher in the pre market and that’s one of the reasons that Nasdaq futures contract is trading up this morning. So it looks like Microsoft may end the day on a buy signal. Of course we’ll have to wait for the end of the day to see how things settle down. Now there was a lot of volatility on Tuesday you saw the VIX was higher, you saw the major indices are all back on sell signals. We had a spike in the US dollar index.

It’s not back on a buy signal just yet, but you can see that money went back into the bond market. There’s the 30 year bond back on a buy signal. Bond yields were down sharply yesterday, so you can see money moving around outside of the stock market. Now, gold was up yesterday, it ended the day just above $2,000, so that’s a good sign. Silver was down yesterday, it’s back on a sell signal.

As of Tuesday’s close. Gold miners were up yesterday. The GDX was up to the lower channel line. We saw some more strength in the Canadian market where we traded up into the Channel. So for the XGD.TO, we’re looking for a close on Wednesday above $20.35.

Now, speaking of miners, we saw a big sell off in copper yesterday, so that’s not a good sign for the global economy. Crude oil was down yesterday. Natural gas was down, not enough to give us a new sell signal. And so there’s the energy stocks in the US, they were down. This particular ETF was down 1.88%, while in Canada we were down 1.94%.

Now, financials were down across the board on Tuesday, we’ve got the XLF back on a sell signal. That has a lot to do with First Republic. Remember, First Republic is one of those regional banks. It was the big winner on Monday, up 20%, and on Tuesday it was down nearly 50%. It’s down again in the pre market.

We closed at 8.10 yesterday, it’s down around $7. Nobody watching these videos should be involved in any regional bank. They’re one breath away from zero and you never want to have your money in anything that’s one breath away from being valued at zero. It’s just not worth the risk. Yeah, you could have been up 20% on Monday, then you’re down 50% on Tuesday, you’re going to be down another 30% on Wednesday.

It’s just not worth it. And it’s very hard to short these stocks. It’s hard to find for your broker to find shares to short at this particular point. We always talk about shorting off the top of the panic zones and we’re very far away from the top of the panic zones. So we’ve got US banks back on a sell signal.

You can compare the financial ETF to banks themselves. The banks got back on a buy signal and now we’re back on a sell signal. No upward momentum. And that, of course, is certainly true for the regional banks. Then looking at broker dealers, we’re back on a sell signal.

US insurance companies back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Now, looking at Canadian financials, they’re also back on a sell signal. Canadian banks also back on a sell signal. We’re being led lower by the CIBC. Second day of a sell signal there.

And the TD bank is finally back on a sell signal. So if you’ve been waiting to short the TD bank, this is your opportunity. You can short it on Wednesday morning if you want. And then, of course, you would cover that short if we closed above 82 65 on Wednesday. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation with a couple of comments.

We’ve been pounding the recession drum for quite a while, and that hasn’t stopped the major indices from moving up. We’ve had a nice rally since the low in March. A couple of comments here. You can look back and see where we peaked back at the start of the year, and we just put in a lower high, which is a bearish sign, of course. Now, we’ve often mentioned the fact that this rally has been led higher by a handful of big cap stocks, and the rest of the market has not really participated.

And so when we talk about the rest of the market, we could talk about the Russell 2000 or we could talk about those micro cap stocks. Neither really participated in this rally. Yes, they got off the floor, but they really didn’t get very far. And so that is the overall market and that’s kind of a bearish sign. So now what we’re going to be looking for, does the Russell 2000, do the micro cap stocks, do they hold the low from March, or do they start to break the low from March?

That’ll be the next thing that we’re looking for. Now in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are higher. They’re being led higher by a handful of tech stocks. And we’ll have to see how that holds up throughout the day. And of course, we’ll be looking to see how the market closes to see what we do next.

Okay, folks, thank you very much for your time and attention. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
04262023

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. My name, of course, is Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.com with today’s look at Canadian Stock Market Trends. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading lower, so we are looking for some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Let’s start off with a quick look at the US market. The VIX traded up into the channel yesterday before coming down, closing near the low of the day. We’re looking for a close on Tuesday above $18.41 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX. And of course, if fear starts to rise, we expect stocks to fall. We saw the DAO trade into the channel yesterday. We saw the S&P 500 trade into the channel. The Nasdaq closing in the channel, dipping below the lower channel line for the second trading day in a row. So for the Nasdaq 100 ETF, we’re looking for a close below 314.88 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. And that would sync up with the semiconductors already on a sell signal, making a new low for this move on Monday. Now, we’re continuing to follow Tesla closely and it broke down below 160 yesterday but recovered going into the close, still trading lower on the day.

So 160 is no longer a potential area of support. Our next mathematical target is 150, but we also talked about looking back to the left, seeing that nice big open gap in which the top and the bottom may act as price magnets going forward. Now, the best performing stock on the S&P 500 yesterday was a regional bank, which I wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole. It closed up at over 12 % yesterday. It is down over 20 % in the premarket this morning. So what the market giveth, they taketh away. Now, moving on to the main topic this morning, and that, of course, is the Canadian stock market. I always get comments about why I don’t talk about what’s going on in the premarket in the Canadian stock market. Well, it’s not actively traded. And if you listen to the local news station, the 24 hours News station, when they do their business report, they absolutely never mention what’s going on in the pre market in the Canadian stock market. Now, there are a couple of ways to get an indication. Of course, an indication does not guarantee exactly what’s going to happen. But if we look at the TSX 60, there are futures contracts for the TSX and the TSX 60.

The TSX 60 is much more actively traded. This number is a little old since I took this picture, but this morning at 6:33 AM, the TSX 60 futures contract was trading down $4.40. Now, yesterday it was down $1.95. Down 4.40 gives us an indication that we’re going to open lower. Another way to get a reliable number is to go to New York and look at the iShares Canada ETF. Yesterday, this particular ETF closed up a penny. This morning it is down $0.21. So that’s giving us an indication that something is going on. You can see that we need to close below $35.02. Right now, we are trading at $35.02. When I took this snapshot, of course, this is an old number. It’s an old number for me. It’s going to be an older number for you by the time you see this video. So we are trading lower this morning, both in the futures contract and in the ETF. So that gives us a good indication that we’re going to expect to see some selling at the open this morning. Now, moving from the TSX 60 to the TSX itself, which is a broader index with over 200 stocks compared to the 60.

You can see it was a very small bar yesterday. So we did make a new high for this move before pulling back and closing slightly lower on the day. We are up at our price target up here. We’re just treading along. Of course, we’ve got the highs from back in January and February that could be potential targets to the upside. And you can see that that is basically a wall of resistance. So we’re having trouble moving higher up here. That doesn’t guarantee that we’re going to pull back. It’s just right now we are stuck trying to break through resistance. That’s also true for the TSX 60. You can see that the midcap stocks have started to pull back from that resistance. And then the small caps and microcaps have already left the building and have been selling off. So the riskier end of the market is tightening up and we are in a downtrend for both small caps and microcap stocks. Now looking at the cannabis sector, we actually made a new low for this move. I know that’s not news, but it’s interesting that when you look at the health care index, you’ve got a nice big pop a couple of days ago and that’s still holding up.

And that’s from one stock and that’s Bellus Health, which I guess is being taken over and nobody was suspecting that was going to happen. So congratulations for those parties keeping everything very secret. Now, moving on to the Canadian financials. They’ve had a nice recovery over the last month. Of course, they were pulled down by the US regional bank crisis. We’ve moved up. We’re trying to get to 367.19, but there’s an open gap that’s holding us in check at the moment. We are seeing a little weakness in Canadian banks. They’re starting to trade back into the channel. We do have a couple back on sell signals as of Monday’s close. So the Bank of Nova Scotia and CIBC are both back on sell signals. And of course, if you wanted to short these stocks, this is the time and place to do so. Of course, the world is focused on shorting TD Bank, which is still on a buy signal, still trading above the upper channel line. National Bank made a new high yesterday. Royal Bank made a new high on Monday. So they’re not all going in the same direction. Now, it’s been the insurance companies really holding the financials up in made a new high yesterday.

New high for manual life on Monday. And then looking at Sun Life, Sun Life has been stuck at resistance here for the last three days. Our price target is 65.63. We got as high as 65.58 yesterday. When we talk about price targets, either to the upside or to the downside, we’re also talking about buyers and sellers. We’re expecting to see some selling up here at the 65.63 level. That has certainly turned out to be the case over the last three years. Of course, if sellers outweigh buyers, then of course you get a lower close. If they don’t, we closed higher yesterday. If we can break through 65.63, then 67. 19 would be our next target to the upside. Now, gold has been on a sell signal for just a couple of days now. We have not been able to hold at 2,000. We closed at 1999.80 yesterday. We’re trading below 2,000 this morning. I assumed that traders would try to hold the magical $2,000 level, but so far they have not been able to do so. Looking at the Panic Zone chart for the price of gold, you want to be a buyer off the bottom of the Panic Zones when a pressure zone forms.

And of course, up here it gets a lot harder to make money even if we get a new buy signal. It’s a lot harder to make money, a lot more risk up here than there was down here. Down here, we’re getting rid of a lot of the sellers, a lot of people that want to be out of the gold market. They have left the building and now buyers outweigh sellers and we start to move up. Here it gets a bit more questionable. You get a lot more people wanting to take profits and that can start a new downtrend for any symbol that you’re following. Now, gold stocks, they have been trending water up here. We’ve been on a sell signal for four days now. Kinross was the best performing gold stock on the TSX yesterday up a little over 1 %. Still on a sell signal here from Friday. We are looking for a close on Tuesday above 6.93. And then Barrick is still on a buy signal that would change on Tuesday with a close below $25.76. Next up, we’re looking at energy stocks which have been on a sell signal for a couple of days now.

They traded higher yesterday. A close above 241.61 would give us a new buy signal. We still have Canadian Natural Resources on a buy signal that would change on Tuesday with a close below $80.17, which would join Suncor already on its sell signal for a week now. We’re not expecting Suncor to change direction on Tuesday. Looking at industrials making a new high yesterday that had a lot to do with the railroads, Canadian National, Canadian Pacific all doing very well at the moment. Compare that to Ballard Power and New Flyer, which are the big losers in the industrial section at the moment. Then let’s finish off with telecom stocks. They’ve been treading water up here for a couple of weeks now. We did see Bell and Telus both make new highs on Monday. At the same time, we’ve got Rogers back on a sell signal. Rogers has been extremely volatile over the last month. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We’re still looking for a lower open on Tuesday morning. Obviously, nobody’s panicking on Tuesday morning. It’s just unwinding of things that happen on Monday, so no major downward pressure on Tuesday morning in the premarket.

Have a great day on Tuesday. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com