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Good morning everyone and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with today’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are mixed. We’ve got the Nasdaq up around 2% on news from Nvidia, while the Dow and the TSX are currently trading below fair value. So we are looking for a mixed open with a heavy emphasis on the technology sector on Thursday morning.

Now we are coming up to a three day long weekend in the US. Markets will be closed on Monday. That doesn’t guarantee success, but it certainly takes some downward pressure off the market if the market gets bad news. Now the market is dealing with some good news in the technology sector this morning. It’s also seeing some bad news.

Some of it is US focused, but we have been waiting for the US to go into recession and it looks like Germany is leading the Europeans into recession right now. So that’s happening over in Europe. We certainly expect it to happen in North America in the not so distant future. We just don’t know exactly when. Now on Wednesday’s trading action, the TSX continued to move lower, gapping lower on Wednesday.

We also saw the Dow make a new low for this move. We have the S and P 500 back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close and the Nasdaq still on a buy signal here. It pulled back yesterday just to tick over half a percent. It is going to be zooming higher at the open. So our semiconductors, semiconductors pulled back into the channel yesterday.

They’re up in the pre market looking at the Semiconductor ETF. Not as much as you would expect considering that Nvidia, which traded back in the channel yesterday, has popped all the way up over $375. Now it’s impossible to tell from sitting on the sidelines what exactly is happening at the moment. Is new money coming in to buy Nvidia shares or is it part of the $9 billion that it’s currently short Nvidia? Are those people coming in to cover their losing short positions?

Now why were they short the stock? Well, for some reason they believe that Nvidia was overvalued and they were expecting it to come back down. Well if it was overvalued yesterday and they were happy shorting the stock, wouldn’t they be more happy today now that the stock is even more overvalued? According to their math, to me it’s fuzzy logic. There was no reason to be short this stock on a short term or long term basis.

But that’s just the way some people operate. So if I owned Nvidia shares this morning and I’ve taken money off the table last at 312.50, I may have had an order in at 343.75 and 375. If you had orders in at those levels, they’re going to get filled at the open at the opening price. If I didn’t have any orders in, I’d want to sell at least half of my remaining position this morning because it’s really a coin flip to figure out whether this is new money coming in or just people shorting. Now, if it’s just people shorting, once they’ve covered their shorts, they have no reason to buy the stock again.

So here we are making a critical decision. If you’re an Nvidia shareholder, I’d be selling some shares at the open on Thursday morning. Now, here’s another headline that may affect the market over the coming weeks. Fitch is putting the US. Credit ratings on credit watch.

Other credit rating agencies are probably going to do this over the next few days, and that’s probably not going to be good for the stock market or the economy. Now. The US. Dollar index continued to move higher on Wednesday. Bonds continued to move lower.

So no change in those major trends. Now, speaking of major trends, let’s take a look at commodities. And copper made a new low for this move. So for those people who believe copper is a good global economic indicator, it’s not going in the right direction at the moment. And we’ve got the TSX Global Mining Index and the S&P 500

Metals and Mining ETF both making new lows for this move on Wednesday. Then, looking at the price of gold, it closed lower yesterday. Gold stocks looking at the GDX or the XGD, both traded lower yesterday. The price of silver also moved down more aggressively than the price of gold. And silver stocks also moved down on Wednesday.

Looking at the energy sector, the USO. Closed higher yesterday. Gasoline, unfortunately, continued to move higher on Wednesday, and natural gas was up. Natural gas still in the channel, looking for a close on Thursday below 6.79 to give us a new sell signal. And looking at energy stocks in Canada, small pullback inside day on Wednesday.

Looking at the US. They closed higher, just under half a percent on the day. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. It looks like we’re going to have a big pop in the technology sector on Thursday. Not sure if the rest of the market is going to go along for the ride.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, May 25, 2023

Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, the futures are mixed. We’ve got stock index futures trading below fair value, while we’ve got commodities with both crude oil and gold trading up on Wednesday morning. Looking at Tuesday’s trading action, we saw the VIX generate a buy signal that of course can be negative for stock s. We stopped right in the middle of the recent trading range.

The market isn’t going to get overly concerned about the VIX till it starts breaking out above the 200 day moving average. Now we did see the TSX come down. The Ishares for the TSX 60 made a new low for this move. Banks are out with earnings this morning. Both the Bank of Nova Scotia and the Bank of Montreal came out with earnings.

They’re both trading lower in New York in the pre market on Wednesday morning. Looking at the Dow Diamonds, they’re back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Nike is still driving the Dow lower, making a new low for this move once again on Tuesday. Then we’re looking at the S&P 500 trading back into the channel, looking for a close below 412.39. We got as high as 418.72 yesterday, so still couldn’t break out above the 420 level.

Then we’re looking at the QQQQ’s still above the upper channel line. Looking for a close on Wednesday below 327.77. And we saw an inside day for the semiconductors on Tuesday. Now walking through those big cap stocks that the world is watching, you can see that we saw a pullback for Google on Tuesday. We did hit the 125 level.

So congratulations. You got to lock in profits there. We were not so lucky on Amazon. We did not hit 118.75. Looking for a close below 111.65 for Amazon on Wednesday.

Then Apple, apple is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at Meta. Quiet trading day for Meta on Tuesday. No change there. We did hit 250.

So congratulations. You were able to lock in some profits there. Then looking at Microsoft, Microsoft still trading, closing above the upper channel line. A close below 310.78 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday and so far we have not been able to hit the 328.13 level. Then we saw a strong pullback yesterday for Netflix.

Still trading and closing above the upper channel line. There’s a nice open gap there that could act as a potential price target. Looking for a close below 341.29 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. And we went up and rang the 375 level a couple of days ago. So congratulations, you were able to lock in profits up at that level.

Then looking at Nvidia, we were able to lock in profits at 312.50. Looking for a close on Wednesday below 293.57 for Nvidia. Then bearish reversal day for Tesla, we were able to hit 187.50. So congratulations. You got to take some profits off the table at that level.

And there’s yesterday’s bearish reversal signal for Tesla. Then looking at Canadian infotech, we are back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. A lot of it had to do with the big swing in Constellation software. It is a $2,600 stock. We need a close on Wednesday below 2583.50.

Then looking at Shopify, shopify is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. And looking at CGI, it is also back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Last up, looking at commodities, we saw crude oil move up yesterday. It’s up in the pre market this morning. Unfortunately natural gas came down yesterday.

Still on a buy signal. That would change on Wednesday with a close below 2.46. Then looking at energy stocks, once again, the Ishares for the TSX energy sector were up on Tuesday. And then we saw the US energy sector also move up and generate a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Looking at gold, gold was down 2.90.

It’s up 6.50 last time I checked. In the pre market, we also have silver trading higher. It made a new low for this move on Tuesday. And there’s the GDX down zero point 69% on Tuesday. And the XGD was down just a tick over one and a half percent on Tuesday.

Okay folks, that is all for Wednesday morning’s presentation. Stock index futures are still down across the board. They’re being led lower by the Russell 2000 and then the Nasdaq. But certainly no panic in the pre market on Wednesday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are slightly below fair value. DOW futures currently down 60 points. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open on Tuesday morning. Now, sometimes markets can be highly correlated, and that means that they move in sync with each other. The market that we watch the closest for correlation is the correlation between the S&P 500 and the VIX. We expect if the VIX is going down that the S&P 500 will be going up. If the VIX is going up, we expect the S&P 500 to go down. Now, another area of the market that has a strong correlation is the correlation between the US dollar index and the stock market and the price of gold. Now, not all correlations, they’re not guaranteed. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. Now, when we go back to the month of February, we had a nice big move up in the US dollar index, and we’re seeing the start of that now. The US dollar index has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks now.

If we can continue to move higher from here, the last time that we rallied like this, we saw the S&P 500 pull back sharply through the month of February into March. We also saw the price of gold pull back as well. Now, so far, the price of gold has already started to pull back. It’s down again in the premarket this morning. So that correlation is working. What hasn’t started yet is the move down in the stock market. So no guarantee that the US dollar index is going to be able to continue to move higher from here. But if it does, we may see a negative effect on the stock market and a continued negative effect on the price of gold. Now, the VIX traded in the channel on Monday, a close above 1807 would give us a buy signal, and we would expect that to be negative for stocks. Now, once again, it was technology stocks leading the market higher. I didn’t notice it that much on the Nasdaq 100, up just a third of a %. It was more visible looking at the chip sector with the stocks trading higher and the spider, Semicondactor ETF up over 1 % on the day.

Looking at the S&P 500, we barely moved yesterday. Our next mathematical target on the SPY is 421.88. On the index itself, it’s 421.75. What the market is really watching right now is not that number. They’re watching the big round number of 4200 or 420 on the SPY. The market is having trouble with that level at the moment. If it can punch through it, and we got pretty close to it yesterday, we can get up to 4,218. 75 on Tuesday. Looking at the DOW Diamonds, we traded down into the channel, dipped below the lower channel line but did not close there. On Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below 332.32 to give us a new sell signal for the DOW Diamonds. Now, Nike continued to lead the DOW lower yesterday, but we also saw Walgreen Boots put in a new low. Now, this was an interesting move. We’re looking for support at 31.25. The high of the day was actually 31.27, and we closed at 3,1.19. So the stock is really trying to hold on to that 31.25 level, even though we made a new low yesterday intraday. We, of course, care about where things close and it closed right up at that level of the 31.25 area of support.

Now, the Canadian market didn’t trade on Monday. On Friday, we traded up closing just above the lower channel line looking for a close on Tuesday above 31.36. Now, US bank stocks were up yesterday. Canadian bank stocks pulled back on Friday. Canadian banks start reporting earnings this week, so that could add to the volatility in the banking sector. On Friday, Canadian energy stocks ended the week on a buy signal. On Monday, we saw a small pullback in US energy stocks down less than half a %. Still waiting for a buy signal for this sector in the US. Looking at gold stocks on the TSX, they traded up on Friday, filling the open gap and then closing higher on the day. On Monday, we saw the GDX pull back, having an inside day. So a day of indecision for gold stocks in the US on Monday. Let’s finish off today’s presentation looking at commodities. The price of copper is trying to hold support here. It’s been on a sell signal for a few weeks now. Then we had an inside day for the GLD and the SLV and the USO on Monday. So no change in trend for gold or silver.

And the price of crude oil is still on a buy signal here treading water. We need a close on Tuesday below 62.99 to give us a sell signal for the USO. Looking at gasoline, new high for this move on Monday. And then looking at the natural gas, big pullback on Monday, trading back down to the upper channel line. Looking for a close on Tuesday below $6.71. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see a quiet open at 9:30 Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing, Television. Of course, my name is Stephen Whiteside. I’ll be your host this weekend. Now, looking at the weekly charts, it looked like it was a fairly quiet week for the market. A couple of standouts, of course, technology stocks, especially the chips, led the markets higher. Otherwise volatility was very quiet and the VIX is down near long term support. We may not see the VIX push any lower from this point as options traders probably don’t want to sell options for any cheaper than they’re selling for right now. Starting off looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, we were down 1.29 % on the week. This coming Friday, if we were to close above$21.27, then we would go from a position of being long term bullish to being long term bearish on the market. Looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see we traded up into the channel on Friday. On Monday, we’d be looking for a close above $18 and 14 cents to give us a new daily buy signal. And if that were to happen, then we’d become short term bearish on the market.

As I mentioned, we’ve come down to support at the 15.63 level. That is both daily and weekly support. Now, I don’t think that’s going to break at the present time. I really don’t think that what’s going on in the world is going to let options traders to sell options for less premium than they’re selling for right now. But it could happen. And if it does, if we do sell you start breaking the recent lows, then 12.50 is our next target to the downside. Looking up on the VIX, I’d be quite concerned if the VIX started trading above the 200 day moving average. Of course, if the US were to default on its debt, then I certainly would expect the VIX to be up over the 200 day moving average. Looking at weekly charts, starting with the DAO Diamond, you can see we traded down to the lower channel during the week but did not close below it. We actually closed up just under a third of a %. Then what was the drag on the DOW this week? Well, it was Nike was the biggest loser on the DOW. Looking at the S&P 500 new high for 2023.

Our next mathematical target is 421.88. Then 437.50, which is not only a weekly target, it’s also a monthly target, and we’ll take a look at that in a few minutes. Before we get to 437.50, we’d have to take out the high from last summer at 431.73. Now, what worked on the S&P 500? Well, the biggest winner in percentage terms was Co America, which was up just under 20 % on the week. But of course, that does not change its overall trend at all. Looking at the triple Qs, a new high for 2023, we’ve taken up the high from a year ago and now looking to see if we can get up to 343.75. That’s our next mathematical target to the upside. Now, the biggest winner on the Nasdaq this week was the chip maker, Marvel, up 13.31 %. And of course, the chip sector was the big winner this week, up 8.63 %. You can see that we traded up getting close to the upper channel line, looking for a close this coming Friday above 196.03 to give us a buy signal for the SPDR Semiconductor ETF. Now looking at the Russell 2000, we’re still trading in the channel, trading water here.

We were up nearly 2 % on the week, still looking for a close on the IWM above $180.36. And as you can see, we’re still trailing along the 175 level. We entered this level about a year ago and have been stuck in a range between 160, 250 at the bottom and $200 at the top. And if you work your way back here, you can see that a year ago we hit the 175 level and basically haven’t moved anywhere in a year. So at least we haven’t been going down. But obviously it’s been hard slog for anything but the big cap tech stocks over the last year. Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we dipped into the channel down a little over half a % on the week. Looking at what worked, Tourmaline was the big winner. It was up 8.47 %. The biggest loser was Barrick, down 7.19 % on the week. Just a couple more weekly charts here. In the US, the biggest winner in percentage terms on the week were the regional banks up 7.81 %, certainly no change in trend. And regional banks do not make up very much in the US market.

That’s why we watch the semiconductors to see what role they’re playing in the US market. In the Canadian market, we saw gold stocks pull back. We talked about Barrick a minute ago. The iShares for the TSX Global Gold Index were down 4.9 % on the week. No weekly sell signal just yet, but lots of daily sell signals. And energy stocks came back, certainly no change in trend on the weekly charts. There are buy signals on some of the daily charts, but in the US, we’re up 1.43 %. Now, let’s finish off this weekend’s presentation taking a look at some long term price target charts. Typically, if you take a look at a monthly chart in our database, it’s going to look like this. It’s a monthly right side chart, so it’s based on the same code algorithms as the daily and weekly Right Side Charts. So that’s not an issue. What I’ve done this weekend is I’ve actually replaced those with longer term monthly price target charts. So again, this is based on the same formulas for our daily and weekly price targets. Unfortunately, these algorithms take a lot of historical data to work.

So I’d say about at least 30, maybe 40 % of the symbols in the database cannot produce these charts. So obviously, the stocks that were the high flyers that were the new stocks during the pandemic, there wouldn’t be enough historical data. But when you look at a stock like Shopify or PayPal, you’d think there’d be enough historical data, but unfortunately there isn’t. So that’s why I don’t post these on a regular basis. Now, just as an example, we’re looking at the DOW Transport, and you see that we punched through our monthly target of 17,500, and we also dip through our monthly area of support here at 12,500. And why is that? Why didn’t these mathematical targets hold the market in check? Well, up at the top, what we were seeing was panic buying. So that’s the time and place you look for selling opportunities. Down at the bottom, we saw panic selling. That’s the time and place you look for buying opportunities. You’re going to see this in a lot of charts, but we do use the mathematical targets to take money off the table or to look for new buying opportunities. Now, right now, we’re looking at the SPDR ETF for the S&P 500.

Remember, on the daily and weekly charts, our next target, 437.50, was actually two targets away. So we are coming up to another major target for the S&P 500. For the Nasdaq 100, it’s 375. That would be our next monthly target. Now, one of the reasons I’m posting these charts this weekend is you can actually go and save these charts to your hard drive if you remember, and keep them for the rest of the year because these numbers are good for years. Obviously, you won’t have the updated data, but the actual numbers themselves are good for years from now. Then looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, you can see we’re at 175 right now, closed at 176.10. Our next target is 200, then 225. Still, the market has no interest at the present time of taking those midcap stocks up anywhere near those previous highs unlike the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Looking at the iShares for the Microcap sector, you can see we’re sitting just above $100. If you look here, this is a real easy example of the mathematics of loss. Let’s just take… I won’t go right up to the top here, but let’s just say that we hit 150 and we’ve come back down to 100.

So that’s a 33 % loss. Now, to get that money back, you’re not looking for a 33 % gain. You’re looking for a 50 % gain to go from 100 up to 150. And we’ll look at a couple more of those examples in a minute. Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, 31, 25 has been an important number for a long time. We closed at 31, 16 on Friday. So that’s our monthly target. If we can take out the highs back in late 2021 and early 2022, then 34, 38 would be our next target. Now, we don’t have as wide of coverage of ETFs in the Canadian market. So if we look at the TSX Composite Index itself, you can see that we’re up over 20,000 and our next mathematical target is 21,250. Then looking at the TSX 60 itself, we’re stuck here at 1,250. If we can take out the highs from back in late 2021, we’re looking for a move up to 1375. Now, as we get away from those big cap stocks, when we’re looking at small cap or the microcaps in the venture exchange, we’re nowhere near going back to those previous highs.

Just like in the US, investors in Canada have no interest in those small cap, microcap stocks. Now, over the last year, the market has been led higher by a handful of tech stocks, and some of those tech stocks have come up to their next monthly price targets. So absolutely no guarantee that these price targets are going to hold any stock in check. You can see for Apple, our next monthly price target is $175. You can see back here in late 2021, we did poke our head slightly above it. And if we can take out those highs, then $200 might come into play. But on Friday, we closed at $175.16. We also took some money off the table at the $175 level. Then looking at Meta, $250 is our next price target. We got as high as 248.69 and closed at $245.64. So $250 is our next monthly price target. For Alphabet, it’s 125. We got as high as $125.97 before pulling back and closing at $122.76. Then looking at Microsoft, $312.50, we closed above that at 3 1834. Of course, closing above it’s not the same as breaking away from it, but that’s where we’re at at the moment.

Then for Netflix, our next monthly target is 375. We got as high as 375.87 before pulling back, closing at 365.36. Then we’re looking at NVIDIA at 31250, and we closed on Friday at 312.64. Then Tesla, Tesla is not acting very well over the past couple of months. Tesla dropped from… I’m just going to use the price target, so I’m not going to look at the ultimate high or the ultimate low. But if we went from 375 down to 125, we lost 66 % of its value from that point to this point. To regain that, you don’t have to gain 66 %, you actually have to go up 200 % to go from 125 to 375. So that’s another example of the mathematics of loss. Of course, if you bought Tesla way back here, you’re still fairly happy or not as happy as you were when Tesla was way up here. It all depends on when you got into Tesla, but our next monthly target for Tesla is $187.50. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. The stock index futures have opened for trading on Sunday night. So far, they’re fairly quiet. Stock index futures are slightly below fair value, but there’s obviously no big news out over the weekend that has put any level of excitement into Sunday night’s futures trading.

So we’ll just have to wait and see how things work out between now and the open at nine o’clock and 30 Monday morning. The next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. We will be posting US stock charts on Monday night. Canadian markets will be closed on Monday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. And again, next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.Com
Sunday, May 21, 2023

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, in the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming up this morning. Stock index futures and commodities are above fair value, so we are looking for some buying at the open on Friday morning. Well, history was made on Thursday as the S&P 500 put in a new high for 2023, taking out the old high and heading towards 421.88. If we can take that out, then 429.69 comes into play. Now, over the past five trading days, there’s been 206 new 52 week highs on the S&P 500 or 42 %. At the same time, 133 stocks or 27 % of the S&P 500 has made 52 week lows. Again, this is really all about technology stocks. Looking at technology stocks, you can see the Nasdaq 100 also made a new high for 2023 on Thursday, heading towards 343.75 on the triple Qs. And if we can take that out, then 359.38 comes into play. Now, looking at the Nasdaq 100, it’s a little different than the S&P 500. We’ve seen 56% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks make new 52 week highs over the past week.

At the same time, only 17 % of the Nasdaq 100 has made new 52 week lows. Getting a bigger bang focusing on the technology sector than the overall market. Now, the chip stocks have done really well this week and looking at the SPDR Semicondactor ETF, we’re heading towards 200. Then looking at Apple, Apple actually hit 175 yesterday. So ching, we finally got to lock in some profits. Apple has not broken away from 175 yet. It closed at 175.05 yesterday. So that is still resistance. So we don’t worry about the next targets to the upside just yet. Then Amazon is another stock I’m long and we’re trying to get to 118.75. Got as high as 118.60 yesterday, so did not lock in profits just yet. A couple of ETFs people were asking me about yesterday. Cloud computing hit its next price target of 17.58. It closed at 17.61. Then autonomous vehicles, 23.44 was our target. It closed at $23.42. The high of the day was 23.46. So if you had an order in up there, that got filled yesterday as well. Now, ARK Innovation’s ETF, it was pointed out to me yesterday that yes, this ETF is up 25.22 % year to date.

So that’s quite incredible. It’s just behind the triple Qs, which are up 26.66% year to date. Now, we’ve been seeing lots of pops and drops over the past couple of weeks, and there’s Netflix driving up to the previous highs. And so if you had an order in at 359.38 or 375, both of them got filled yesterday. So congratulations. Then looking at NVIDIA, NVIDIA hit 312.50, actually got as high as 318.28 yesterday. We have not broken away from 312.50 yet, so the current price targets on the daily charts have not expanded. If we go to the weekly chart, you can see this chart was published last weekend. 312.50 was our next target, so we know we’ve hit that. Then above 312.50 is 343.75, and that’s where we topped out back in late 2021. Then looking at Tesla, our next mathematical target is 187.50. We still have not broken away from 175. The low of the day yesterday was 172.45, and then we’ve got that open gap. So the high yesterday was 177.06, the top of that open gap is 177.65. So we’ll see how the market deals with that on Friday. Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX is back on a sell signal which is supportive for higher stock prices.

You can see that on Friday we need to close up there at above 1827. Not expecting that to happen based on what we’re seeing in the premarket this morning. We’re getting down to the previous low at 1563. If that breaks, then 12.50 would be our next target to the downside, and that would certainly be supportive for higher stock prices. Now, a lot of people ask why I don’t follow the VIX for the Nasdaq, why I focus on the VIX for the S&P 500. Well, you can see this is a pretty spastic chart. It’s always been this way. Sometimes when people see this chart on the website, they email and say that, Hey, do you know you’ve got bad data? Well, no, that’s just the way this works. If you go to the CNBC website, this is what it looks like this morning. So our data is not bad. It’s just the way this particular index looks and it’s not something that I like to follow. It can be all over the place and I’d rather stick to the VIX for the S&P 500. Moving on to the Canadian market. Yes, the technology index is doing well.

Remember, these are weighted. The bigger the stock, the more influence it has on the index. So it doesn’t mean that all stocks in this particular index are up at these levels. The rest of the Canadian market is not doing as well. The TSX is on a sell signal right now, so is the TSX 60. The reason for that, of course, is that energy stocks have not been doing well lately. They could come back on Friday with crude oil trading higher this morning. Then we’ve got financials which are just treading water, having an inside day yesterday. Then the price of gold has been coming down this week and we see the gold stocks made a new low yesterday and mining stocks made a new low for this move as well. So that’s why the Canadian market is not in sync with the US market at the present time. Now, looking at the Canadian tech stocks, Absolute Software popped last week and just another one of those stocks that popped. Congratulations if you owned that stock, I wouldn’t be sitting around doing anything I would have sold by now. It’s probably not going to go anywhere from here, so no reason to hang around.

Then BlackBerry made a new high for this move. The price targets for BlackBerry have started to expand as the stock has started to trade and continue to hold up in a new level. Remember, the previous price targets were based on this range, this high to this low and then to this high. So you had price targets based on that price action, and then we started to break out above that. So 7.42 was our next price target, got as high as 7.44 yesterday on the TSX. Then looking at CGI, we made a new high yesterday. Then looking at Lightspeed, here’s another stock that popped and dropped. You can see the nice move up. We made a new high for this move and then came right back down the next day. So unfortunately, that’s been happening a lot and that’s just the mood that the market is in at the moment. Not much you can do about it. Nuvei made a new low for this move yesterday. Another stock that generated a buy signal. You came in the next morning, saw that it was going to open way down here. So you didn’t take the buy signal.

And I have no idea why it dropped so much right after Ryan Reynolds started promoting this particular company. Open Text made a new closing high yesterday for this move. Another stock that made a new low here for this particular move. And then the next morning it just popped higher and has not pulled back since. Then Shopify, we talked about this one. It generated a sell signal. You came in the next morning and saw that it was going to open up way up here. And so you waived off that sell signal and we’re still on a buy signal. Things would change for Shopify on Friday with a close below 79.40. Then looking at Telus International, it is in the InfoTech Index and it made a new low on Thursday for this particular move. Okay, folks, that is all for Friday morning’s presentation. So far it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Friday morning. Have a great day. Have a great weekend. It’s a long weekend here. The Canadian markets will be closed on Monday. Us markets will be open. We will do a video over the weekend.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, May 19, 2023

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We’ve got stock index futures slightly above fair value. The market is waiting for employment numbers to come out at 830. And then we’ve also got some other economic numbers coming out between 8:30 and 10:00 A.m that could add to pre market volatility. Let’s start off today’s presentation, looking at weekly charts. I just printed these off this morning to see where we are sitting. The DOW is up just a third of a percent on the week. The S&P 500 is up zero point 84%, so getting close to 1% gain so far.

The high from earlier this year was up at 4195.44. So as we get closer to 4200, we know that there is resistance up there as the recent high did not retest the 4195.44 level. So, so far we’re still heading in that direction. We’ll have to see what the market does if it can get back to that level. Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq continues to lead the market higher.

And as you can see, we’re getting very close to the high from 2022. Looking at the Russell 2000, we’re up nearly 2% on the week. Not sure if you saw this headline the other day, but Apple is now worth more than all of the Russell 2000 put together. Now Apple is not my friend at the moment. For the last couple of weeks, we’ve been trying to hit 175.

That’s our next price target. We’ve got as high as 174.59. And remember, what we call price targets, the rest of the world calls resistance. And resistance is holding Apple in check at the moment. Looking down on Thursday, and Apple has traded in the channel for the past couple of days.

We need a close below 170.45 to kick us out of the remainder of our Apple position on Thursday. Then looking at the Canadian market, the TSX is down 0.6%. So a little over half a percent. And that has a lot to do with mining stocks. And the Venture Exchange is down just a tick, under 1% for the week.

Now, we’ve seen a lot of pops and drops over the last couple of weeks. That tells me that investors are on edge. They’re not willing to put money into stocks ahead of earnings reports. One that was a real mystery on Tuesday was Home Depot, which led the DOW lower. And then on Wednesday, complete reversal and it led the DOW higher.

So investors really squeamish right now. And that is a sign, of course, of a possible recession, of possible bank failures. There’s all kinds of stuff going on. And of course, there could be a black swan out there that we’re not aware of. Looking at technology stocks, again, they’re leading the market higher on Wednesday.

And we see that semiconductors came back a couple of days ago and they had a big update on Wednesday. Now, when we look at the winners and losers from Wednesday, it was the regional banks were the biggest winners. And look down, see how far you have to get on our list of ETFs before we get to a Canadian sector that moved up on Wednesday. So Regional Banks, the big winners on Wednesday, up over 7% on the day, being led higher by Comerica, the top performing stock on the SP 500, and the second was Zion’s. Both back on buy signals as of Wednesday’s close.

Canadian Western Bank, the only real regional bank in Canada, has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks now. So no change in trend there. And then looking at the SPDR Bank, ETF back on a buy signal, spider Financials back on a buy signal. Then looking at Canadian banks, no change. We were on a buy signal.

Then it reversed and we’re still on a sell signal. And the Canadian financials are also still on a sell signal. Now, we recently talked about the TD Bank. It was in the news, the media was reporting that the TD Bank was the biggest shorted bank stock in the world. That was April 5.

So we don’t know exactly when they put on those short positions. I just concerned that when somebody sees a headline like this that they also might want to short the TD Bank. And of course, anytime we talk about shorting, what we’re talking about is we’re coming off the top of the panic zones. The early warning signal has gone off the chart, has start to turn color from blue to red. We get a sell signal on the right side chart.

That is when you short a stock down here is when the public shorts a stock. Why? Because now they’ve got enough psychological support to help them psychologically pull the trigger and short a stock. Now, April 5 was right in here and that’s when the news reports came out and the stock started to move up from that point. So a lot of times it’s buy the rumor, sell the news.

And if the news was that there were billions of dollars of TD Bank stock shorted, that that was the news and you buy the rumor and you sell the news. And if the news was that the stock has been shorted, how do you sell that? Well, you buy the stock, you do the opposite of the news story. And that’s exactly what happened so far. Let’s finish off looking at commodities.

We’ve got the USO back on a buy signal, we’ve got Gasoline back on a buy signal. That’s rather unfortunate as we get towards the summer, we don’t want to see gasoline prices rising going into the summer, do we? Now, natural gas is also on a buy signal, so no change in trends for gasoline or natural gas. We’ve got a big move up though in crude oil back on a buy signal. That should help the energy stocks, which were up yesterday, but still on a sell signal for the Ishares for the TSX Energy sector and the SPDR ETF for the US energy sector

both up nicely on Wednesday, but not enough to give us a buy signal. Now the price of gold has been coming down this week. It is sitting just below 2,000. You can see that this is where the recent lows were put in. If we look at what the pros and the public are doing, nobody really wants gold to move away from $2,000, but it is starting to slip below it.

The price of silver a little more committed to trading below $25. As you can see, the pros gave up control a few days ago and so silver traders more comfortable with the silver below 25. When we look at the price of gold and silver, they both declined quite a bit from the start of February into late February. And what was going on at that time? Well, the US dollar was rising and look at what’s going on right now.

The US dollar has started to move up. So that could be the reason that precious metals have been pulling back over the last couple of days. And of course, with precious metals falling, it’s harder to see gold and silver stocks rise. And so there’s the GDX making a new low for this move. There’s the XGD also making a new low for this move on Wednesday.

Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly above fair value. DOWfutures currently up 130 points. The DOWis leading the markets higher in the premarket this morning. I see gold is down in the premarket while crude oil is slightly higher. Let’s start off today’s presentation taking a look at some weekly charts. I printed these off this morning just to see how the week was doing so far. And as we come into Friday, the S&P 500 is having an inside week. It’s down 0.14 %, so almost unchanged on the week. It is making up for that in the pre market this morning. Then the ishares for the TSX 60 are down a little over half a %, still having an inside week. Who’s not having an inside week? Well, the Nasdaq is continuing to make higher highs here, heading towards the highs from last summer. Then looking at gold, gold is having an inside week, down $4.30. It’s down again in the premarket, still trading above 2,000. And after the big bar that we saw last week, crude oil is having an inside week.

It’s down 0.26 %, and it’s making up for that in the premarket this morning. So crude oil could end the week unchanged. What’s probably not as big a news story as it should be is the price of copper breaking down. You can see that we were holding support for a while and then this week we finally broke down. So not a good sign for the global economy to see copper leading the markets lower. Now, moving on to daily charts, the VIX had an inside day on Thursday looking for a close below 16.87 on Friday. There’s the DOW making a new low for this week on Thursday. The S&P 500 had an inside day looking for a close on Friday above 4.12. 98. Then looking at the Nasdaq making a new high on Thursday. Canadian tech stocks made a new high on Wednesday. Very small pullback on Thursday. Chip sector, nothing going on there at the moment. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we dip below the lower channel line. Looking for a close above 31.51 on Friday to give us a buy signal. The price of gold traded down. It’s trading down in the premarket this morning.

Looking for a close below 2011.80 on Friday. Then looking at gold stocks, the GDX and the XGD both ended Thursday on a sell signal. Next up, let’s take a look at some big cap tech stocks starting with Apple. Apple made a new high on Thursday of 174.59. We’re trying to get to 175 to lock in some more profits. Then looking at Advanced Micro Devices, we made a new high on Thursday. That was at 99.94. Trying to hit $100, maybe we can do that on Friday. Then looking at Amazon, our next target was 112.50. We hit that yesterday, got as high as 113.28. Then looking at BlackBerry on the TSX, we made a new high yesterday. We hit the 7.03 price target. Congratulations, you got to take money off at 6.25, 6.64 and now 7.03. Yesterday was a bearish reversal day, so we’ll have to see what happens to BlackBerry on Friday. Then looking at Alphabet, new high for this move yesterday. We are looking to get to 118.75, got to 117.92. Getting pretty close to our price target. Then looking at Meta, looking for a close below 230.01 on Friday. Then we’re looking at Microsoft, looking for a close below 302.48. We hit 312.50 so congratulations, you’ve got to lock in some profits.

Then Peloton was in the news. They’ve got a recall over two million bikes because they’ve got a problem. That is a huge, huge logistical and costly problem for the company. Down only 8.9 % yesterday, making a new low for this move for Peloton. Then looking at Shopify. Shopify popped the other day. I’m not going to chase stocks that popped like this. I see that the stock has continued to trade higher. It got up and hit 87.50 the other day and then has started to pull back. So that’s probably the end of the move for Shopify at this time. You can see the bearish reversal day on Tuesday. So we’re looking to see if we could get fall through to the downside. Yesterday we didn’t, but we’re still stuck at resistance. Then looking at Tesla. Tesla has been trading water since it generated a buy signal. We’re looking for a close on Friday below 163.40. 175 is our next price target. Then, of course, we’ve got the open gap above that. If we can take out the open gap, then 187.50 comes into play. We’re still having trouble getting over the 50 day moving average and the Flypaper Channel.

But probably most importantly, the Pros have not taken control. So a lot of times you can get a buy signal and the trend can start. But unless the Pros come in and take control, the trend will not continue for very long. So that’s disappointing that the Pros have not come back to take control of Tesla. And finally, this morning we get to say goodbye to Bed Bath & Beyond this weekend. Anytime you bring up a panic zone chart and you see elongated pressure zones across the bottom of the screen, that’s a pretty good indication that the stock is broken and the stock market actually hates this particular stock. Now for Bed Bath & Beyond, we had a couple of short squeezing as the Reddit users ganged up on the short sellers and put squeezing on which caused the stocks to this particular stock to jump dramatically. You can see the Pros gave up control in early February and the stock continued to move lower. Looking at weekly chart, you can see that we had some great run ups all the way up towards $30. Of course, anytime that you’re taking a trade like that, you want to use our price target charts and lock in profits along the way.

You could have locked in profits at 18.75, $25, and they would have looked pretty good compared to where the stock is trading now. Of course, if you hadn’t have taken money off the table, you would have actually ended the weekly trade on with a loss. But if you had have taken money off the table along the way, you would have been extremely happy with how things turned out. So here we are. We’re getting to remove Bed Bath & Beyond from the database this weekend, and we’ll also be taking out a bunch of other stocks as well that have not performed at all over the last six months. Enjoy the rest of your day. It’s a beautiful day out there where I am. Have a great weekend. And the next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Hello everyone and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning things are rather mixed. We’ve got the Dow down 130 points while the Nasdaq is higher in the pre market. So we are looking for a mixed open on Thursday morning. Now I’ve recently mentioned that the stock market was looking very sloppy and the reason I say that is that we’ve seen an enormous amount of gaps either to the upside or to the downside, much more than you would normally see during an earnings season.

And the reason for that is that investors are just keeping things on a very tight leash. They are waiting for confirmation, they’re waiting for the earnings to come out before they take action. I don’t know if that’s going to be profitable or not to rush in after the fact, but a lot of investors are doing that. And there is an underlying current of fear in the market that is not necessarily reflected in the stock market, but we can see it in other places. So fear is not reflected in the VIX.

We’re not seeing the major stock market indices sell off just yet. Now, while you and I watch the stock market every day, of course there are other financial markets going on around the world and we’re seeing that the smart money has been spending billions of dollars getting prepared for an upcoming financial crisis. Of course, we’ve all been watching inflation and the Fed fighting inflation by raising rates and that of course has put downward pressure on the regional banking sector. We’ve been watching that unfold for the past couple of months. But there are other financial markets that we don’t necessarily watch on a daily basis and one of them of course is the debt market.

You and I do not watch it that closely, but institutions and governments certainly do. And right now the cost of insuring US debt has gone up dramatically over the past few months. Now here’s a table of what the cost of what are called credit default swaps. This table shows some of the different countries. I couldn’t put all of them on this particular page, but we can start off by looking at the US and currently costs 65.30.

Right below that is the UK. That’s what it usually costs to insure US debt and that has gone up dramatically. Canada, which usually costs more than the US and the UK to insure, currently trading just under 40. Mexican debt much more expensive to insure. But then if you go down to the bottom of the page or the top of the page, you can see what it costs.

If you are not one of the big industrialized countries of the world, debt is much more expensive to insure. Now, if we look at what’s been going on in the last year, mexico has actually come down in price to insure their debt by nearly 20%. Canada has risen just 1.23%, while the US. The cost of insuring US debt has gone up 337%. That is a huge number, and that’s what it looks like on a chart.

And where does it go back to? Well, the financial crisis of 2008. Now, while you and I are watching the VIX down at recent lows and the Nasdaq up at new highs, there is a part of the financial world that is getting ready for a major financial crisis. Now, this crisis, of course, could be averted if the Republicans get their act together and come up with a solution for raising the debt ceiling. But so far that has not happened.

So while we’ve been dealing with the regional bank crisis, the US banks in general still not doing well. That, of course, is part of the financial sector. And holding that down, we’ve got broker dealers still in pain at the moment. Insurance companies holding up fairly well right now, still treading water. Canadian banks, Canadian financial institutions not doing well again, outside of the insurance industry, banks and regional banks are still being dragged down by, first of all, the raising of rates.

But then, of course, now we have the problem with the US debt ceiling. Looking at the Nasdaq, it is continuing to make higher highs. It stocks, tech stocks in Canada also making higher highs. But the rest of the market is in a pretty tight range. Here we’ve got the VIX, we made a recent low, recent high over the past two weeks, and we’re still on a buy signal at the moment.

Looking at the US dollar index, it’s trapped in the middle of a range. We’ve got Bonds trapped in the middle of a range. We’ve got Copper trading right down at the bottom of the range. So Dr. Copper not doing well at the moment.

Gold is still on a buy signal here, still trading above $2,000, but stuck in the middle of a range from the last two weeks. Then we’ve got crude oil. Crude oil trading up in the channel for the past three days, looking for a close on Thursday above 72.03 to give us a buy signal. Natural gas still on a sell signal. No change there.

Then looking at the Dow. The DOW right in the middle of a range from the recent high to the recent low. Looking at the S&P 500, you can see that we may have put in a double bottom there, but we are stuck in the middle of the range and looking for a close on Thursday above 412.99. Then looking at the chip sector, we went up, filled the gap and pulled back. We’re right in the middle of the range.

Looking for a breakout of that range. Then looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60. Again, we’re right in the middle of the range. We did generate a buy signal the other day. We talked about waving that off, waiting for the next close above the upper channel line before jumping in.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Looks like we’re going to get a lower open on Thursday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. DOW futures currently down 100 points. In percentage terms, the Nasdaq is the weakest of the bunch in the premarket on Tuesday morning. Just a heads up, I probably won’t be back on Wednesday. I’ve got a couple of appointments on Wednesday morning, including donating blood. The VIX closed a little lower yesterday, still sitting on the lower channel line. On Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below 16.88 to give us a sell signal. If that were to happen, that would be supportive for higher stock prices.

Now, if you were with us last week, the DOW may put in a bearish reversal day on Monday, put in a lower low during the week on Thursday, and then we had that nice big move up on Friday, which did not generate a buy signal. Yesterday was an inside day for the DAO. The S&P 500, still on a sell signal. We need to close on Tuesday above 413.03. Then the Nasdaq, which did not generate a sell signal last week, is still on a buy signal, making a new closing high yesterday. Not being helped by the chip sector, which is still trading and closing below the lower channel line.

Now, the ishares for the TSX 60 came back and closed just above the upper channel line yesterday. I would give that one a pass and wait for the next close above the lower channel to the upper channel line to get back in the TSX. We are up at resistance at 31.64. You can see that we tapped out back in January and February up at this level as well. So to get to 32.03, we need to take out last week’s high, and we’re probably not going to do that on Tuesday morning. If you want to give the TSX a little more room, then look at the mid term chart. Right now, we’re looking for a close below $31 to give us a new sell signal. Now, on the TSX, the big winner yesterday was Infotec, and the biggest loser was real estate. And InfoTech was BlackBerry that was the big leader yesterday. On Friday, we were looking for a move up to 6.25. We got that. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits. Our next profit target is 6.64, which we hit on Monday and closed right at 6.65. So congratulations, you’ve got to lock in some profits along the way and still sitting looking for a move up to 7.03 as our next target. Now, the biggest loser yesterday was real estate and the biggest loser in that sector was Altus, which fell apart last week and is still holding the low from Friday. Now looking at the weekly chart and this chart is from Friday, you can see that we’re trying to hold 43.75. We’re trading just below that right now. The low from back last year was 41.27. T hat is our next target. And if that breaks, then we’ll eventually go down towards 37.50.

Looking at the US market, the biggest winner yesterday was Communication Services. Biggest looser was Real Estate. In Communication Services, you can see we traded up to the upper channel line, did not close above it. We’re still just a penny away from generating a buy signal on Tuesday. The biggest winner in communication services was Warner Brothers back on a buy signal after putting in a bullish reversal signal on Friday, as did a lot of market participants. Looking at what didn’t work yesterday, well, real estate has been treading water for a month or so here, trying to break out above 37.50. We’ve pushed above it several times, but have not broken away from it. If we can do that, then 3906 would be our next target to the downside. The biggest loser in real estate was Weld Tower, which was down on the day, but not enough to give us a sell signal. Still looking for a close below 76.27 on Tuesday. Let’s finish off with a look at those big cap tech stocks we’ve been following. And there’s Apple having an inside day on Monday, looking for a close below 166.87 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. Of course, if that doesn’t happen on Tuesday, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. Amazon still on a sell signal here that would change on Tuesday with a close above 106.17. There’s Alphabet trading up, still on a buy signal here, not going anywhere. It’s been treading water for a while now. Looking for a close below 105.19 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. If you want to give it a little more room, then on the mid term chart, we’re looking for a close below 102.50. Then looking up, we’re trying to get to 112.50. That’s our next target if we can take out the recent highs from the last month.

Then looking at Meta, we’ve dipped into the channel for the past couple of days, looking for a close below $228.14 on Tuesday. Then looking at Microsoft, we’re looking for a close below $298.72. Yesterday was an inside day. Then looking at NVIDIA, putting in a new closing high on Monday, looking for a close below 273.55 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. And last up, looking at Tesla, second day of a buy signal here. We need a close below 161.20 to give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Our next mathematical target is 175, but just above that is the top of an open gap at 177.65, which could also act as a target.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. And as I mentioned earlier, I’m probably not going to be back on Wednesday. I’ve got a few appointments. I’ve also got an appointment to donate blood on Wednesday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is probably on Thursday morning. in.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television. Well, we made it through month end and we were looking for some selling this week and we got some selling. In fact, this week was a very sloppy week. Starting on Monday, we had a bearish reversal day on the DOW. We saw fall through to the downside on Tuesday, which tells us that Monday should be the high for this particular move in the market. We continued to see fall through to the downside on Wednesday, and that’s after the market was able to react to the Fed Minutes and to the Fed Press Conference. We also continued down on Thursday. Now, coming in to Friday, we had the employment numbers and the market reacted very positively to positive employment numbers. And that is a little bizarre. Those positive employment numbers basically tell the Fed that they have no reason to stop raising interest rates at this time. And so what I would have assumed would have caused the market to sell off on Friday, caused the market to actually go up on the day. Now, the DOW and the S&P 500 traded down to the 200 day moving average and bounced.

So that is still a significant area of support. Now, moving from daily to weekly charts, the DOW was actually the biggest loser of the four major indices that we follow, down 1.26 %. Notice how big the bar is. It traded all the way down to the lower channel line after making a higher high this week, we closed right at the upper channel line. So certainly the DOW could generate a sell signal this week with a close below $328.58. Now, the S&P 500 it’s still closed above the upper channel line, down a little over three quarters of a %. Notice where resistance is, the high from earlier this year, just above where we traded up to this week. So we may be able to test that this week. Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq had an interesting week, actually an inside week with a double top there up at 323.76. So it’s just we’re a whisper away from making a new high for the Nasdaq this week. Then looking at the semiconductors, they had an inside week down ever so slightly. And then looking at the Canadian market, the ishares for the TSX 60 closed down just under half a % after making a new high for this move.

Now, there was a lot of stocks that had very exaggerated moves this week, including Shopify up over 26 % on the week. Then we saw Thompson Reuter’s down just under 10 %. We saw Gildan Activewear down over 10 % on the week. Now, Walgreens was the biggest loser on the DOW this week, down 8.7 %. The biggest winner on the S&P 500 was Royal Caribbean, up 15.56 %, followed by Live Nation, up 13.84 %. Then down at the bottom of the list, we had CBS Paramount down over 27 % on the week. That was a huge move lower, followed by Estee Lauder down 17.5 %. In both cases, we’re still holding the lows from last fall. We’ll have to see if those lows continue this week. Rubbermaid, on the other hand, have already broken through the fall lows, and they’ve broken through the 2023 lows, down 16.79 %. Now, regional banks are still in the news, and I just want to make something very clear, even though we’re looking at these charts. I have never bought a regional bank. I have no interest in any of these regional banks. We are watching the regional bank sector closely because it is a financial crisis that could roll over into other areas of financial markets.

We know that already. It’s already happened, but it could continue to get worse and pull down the US financial system. So that’s why we’re watching them closely. I would not buy any of these individually. Now, if you want to be involved in this sector, do it through the ETF and spread your risk out. Now, the ETF was down again over 10 %, making a new low for this move. If it starts to turn around, if you think regional banks are going to get saved, if you think that there’s light at the end of the tunnel, then do the ETF. Don’t do the individual regional banks. Now, they are incredibly volatile. And on Friday, we saw some huge numbers that have attracted a lot of people. And the only people that those huge numbers benefit, are the people that bought on Thursday. And so, for example, Zion was up nearly 20 % on Friday. The one everybody’s talking about is PacWest, which was up over 80 % on Friday. The only people that benefit from that are the people that bought on Thursday. Can you imagine buying a regional bank on Thursday after it made a new low and broke down below the low from March?

Can you believe that? But that’s the type of risk you have to take. But that’s not the type of risk we want to take. That would just not be a good thing. Please don’t do that. These regional banks are all one press release away from being worthless. So please don’t be buying individual regional banks. Now, this seems like a very good place to drop in a little tutorial on the mathematics of loss. This is not something they teach you in school. Let’s say, for example, you had a regional bank that was trading at $100 two years ago. It’s now down $95, currently trading at $5. It’s pretty easy for a high school student to figure out you’ve lost 95 % of the value of this particular stock. Now, the problem is how much does the stock have to go up for you to get your money back? If you ask nine out of 10 people on the street, they’ll tell you, Well, it has to go up 100 % for you to get your money back, at least. And they’re totally wrong. That’s not how much it has to go up. 95 %, 100 % isn’t going to get you your money back.

In this particular example, it’s got to go up 1900 % for you to get your money back. And that’s not something that statistically is going to happen, maybe not in your lifetime. So a lot of people end up going down with the ship and the ship never rises again. I’m not sure if you’re aware of this, but at one time, the US had a very vibrant savings and loan industry, and that all dried up when the savings and loan industry collapsed. And there’s a pretty good chance that the regional bank industry is also going to collapse in the US. And some of these stocks will just never, ever, ever recover. Let’s move on to commodities. It was a negative week for energy with crude oil down 6.31 %. 62.50 still holding as support. I think the low of the week was 63. So if that breaks, then $50 would be our next target to the downside. Natural gas down nearly 10 % on the week. If you look at our weekly price targets, 156 is our next target. The daily target right now is 234. Below that is 156. So we’re still holding at the 234 level.

We closed at 232. The high of the week was 234.90. So we’re still stuck to the 234 level. Was expecting more of a bounce. We did see some buying in April, but nothing to take us up to 313 or 391. Still waiting for that to happen. Looking at energy stocks, they were down on both sides of the border. order, back on sell signals for the TSX and for the SPY Energy Sector ETF, both down, closing below the lower channel line this week. Now looking at the mining sector, starting with copper. Copper was down ever so slightly on the week, so no aggressive selling in copper. Gold, on the other hand, made a new high for this move, pulling back, going into the end of the week. We’re still stuck to 2,000. Our next target is 2,125. Silver is still stuck to 25. Our next target is 28.12. Then looking at the mining stocks, the GDX was up 5.42 %, still stuck to 34.38. And then looking at the XGD.TO, it was also up on the week, up 4.34 %, still stuck to $20.31. Let’s finish off this weekend’s presentation with the VIX or the fear index.

If you’re a long term investor, we’re still long term bullish on the market. That would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close above $22.38. Now, if you’re a short term trader, it’s been pretty sloppy the last couple of weeks. We went on a buy signal, then a sell signal, this week another buy signal. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re still on a buy signal. We traded down to the lower channel line on Friday looking for a close below 1685 on Monday to give us a sell signal, and that would turn us short term bullish on the market. Looking at the price targets, you can see that we traded up towards the 21.88 level. You can see support at 15.63 is currently holding. Now up at that 21.88 level, that’s where you get the 200 day moving average. You can see it’s been a while since we punched through that. That is currently acting as resistance. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Last week was very sloppy. A lot of traders and investors were on the wrong side of individual stocks, and we saw huge explosions in the opposite direction.

A lot of those stocks I wouldn’t be chasing higher at the moment. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com