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Morning Market Outlook 04242024

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are mixed, DOW futures are lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading higher this morning, and that might be on the back of a pop in the price of Tesla. Now, commodities are trading lower. We’ve got durable goods numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that may help change the direction of the market. Speaking of commodities, we’ve got energy inventories coming out later in the morning. Let’s start off looking at the VIX, and the VIX came down hard yesterday. Once again, it is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. That, of course, can be supportive for higher stock prices. Obviously, options trades in Chicago are feeling a little less tension over the past couple of days. Now, Tesla is in the news this morning. It’s popping in the pre-market. It is currently trading above the upper channel line. Of course, the enthusiasm right now is mostly short-covering, and we’ll have to see if that enthusiasm lasts throughout the day. We need to close above $160.36 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. Now, the iShows for the TSX-60 and the Dow Diamonds both ended Tuesday on buy signals.

Now, I’m going to split up the presentation. We’ll start off looking at the US market and then move on to the Canadian market. There’s the S&P 500 trading in the channel. If today turns out to be similar to yesterday’s in regards to enthusiasm, we could end the day on a buy signal. A volume was lower than it was on Monday, which was lower than it was on Friday, so we’re still rising on a lower volume. At the end of the day, that doesn’t matter. Anybody’s got stock in their accounts is benefiting from the stocks rising over the last couple of days. There’s the Q’s trading up to the lower channel line, again, on lower volume, lower than Monday, lower than Friday, certainly. Again, we’re moving up on a lower volume here. There’s the Russell 2000 trading up to the upper channel line. There are small caps trading up to the upper channel line and micro caps almost trading up to the upper channel line. So certainly we may see buy signals in those ETFs on Wednesday. Retail stocks were up yesterday, up over 2% and back on a buy signal, joining the financials and banks, which continued to move higher yesterday.

Regional banks continued to get a bid. Insurance stocks are back on a buy signal. Broker dealers are back on a buy signal. We have a new buy signal for US health care. And then utilities continued to move higher on Tuesday. While technology stocks and semiconductors continued to move up on Tuesday, they are certainly still nowhere near a buy signal coming into Wednesday’s trading action. Now, this article might be rather timely. It was from the Wall Street Journal, pointing out just how much money has come out of the ARK ETFs. Of course, Cathy Woods is a great Great stock picker, terrible money manager, but with Tesla popping today, some of her ETFs are going to benefit. Tesla is still one of her biggest holdings. If we walk through the ETFs, you can see which ones the market loves and which ones the market does not love. The Fintech ETF seems to be holding up fairly well. Found support in the FlyPaper channel, starting to move back up from an oversold position. No joy for Genomics. If we get a rally here, it could be up to the FlyPaper channel. That’s also true for the Innovation ETF, which is the big holder of Tesla.

Then you’ve got the industrials. Again, we may move up to the FlyPaper channel. Little more love for the Web or the Internet ETF. Not a lot of love for the Space ETF. It’s been treading water for a while. Out of all of them, this is the one I would avoid the most. It has got a very low Average to Range. I really don’t think there’s a lot of opportunity opportunity in this particular ETF. Moving on to the Canadian market. Well, everything worked yesterday. The big winner in percentage terms was health care, but it’s not really relevant to the market. There’s only four stocks. Back at the start of the century, there was probably 40 biotech stocks on the TSX that we were all following, and now it’s just dwindled down to nothing. Infotech was the second big winner, and the best-performing stock on the TSX-60 was actually Shopify. We’ll take a look at that in a second. And then Communication Services actually worked yesterday, and we’ve got some new buy signals there. So looking at health care, the reason it was the big winner was Tilray was up over 7%, but no new trend there.

The big player in that sector is Bausch, and it actually had an inside day, so nothing going on there. Then Infotec is back on a buy signal, being led higher by the elephant in the room, Shopify. Then we had Hut8 continuing to move higher on Tuesday. We We’re at Bitfarm on its second day of a buy signal. We’ve got OpenText back on a buy signal, and Descartes making a new high for this move on Tuesday. Now, looking at the telecom stocks, we’re back on a buy signal for the index. Rogers is on his second day of a buy signal. Telus is on its second day of a buy signal. And now we have Bell back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Looking at financials, the index actually closed a one penny above the upper channel line. Banking stocks closed a little below. When we look at the bank stocks, we’ve got TD Bank on its third day of a buy signal, now being joined by the Royal Bank back on a buy signal. When we look at the insurance stocks, the three big ones, we’ve got Intact, which has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks, but not going anywhere.

A close below $219.33 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. For a Manulife, we’re looking for a close above $32.34. And for Sun Life, we’re looking for a close above $71.04 to give us a buy signal on Wednesday. Now, looking at the energy sector, we’ve been treading water here for the past couple of days. And then looking at gold stocks, we made a new low for this move before recovering both crude oil and gold are trading lower in the pre-market this morning. We’ll come back on Thursday and take a look at both of those sectors. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Stock index futures are still trading above fair value this morning, while commodities are still trading below fair value. That may hinder the Canadian market moving higher on Wednesday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. Again, at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the commodity sectors.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next Daily Market Update.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, April 24, 2024

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