Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com . In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value, being led higher by the Nasdaq. We also have commodities up with gold up dollar $15 $16 in the pre market. So looking for higher prices across the board on Friday morning, except we do have PPI numbers coming out at 8.30 and that could certainly change the direction of the market. Well, Thursday turned out to be an extremely wild day. It was quite a roller coaster. The market slipped sharply lower after it opened and we saw a lot of volatility. A lot of stocks also recovered going into the close. Now, Alphabet is up in the premarket this morning, leading the market higher already on a buy signal. Snap is also up sharply this morning already on a buy signal. We also have Microsoft recovering this morning. Certainly not going to generate a buy signal, but it is up in the pre market. And unfortunately, at the same time, intel, the sad sake, of the chip sector, is down in the pre market on Friday morning. Now, one of the things I like to do on a Friday morning is to print off some weekly charts and just to take a look, top down, big picture look of what’s been going on this week.
And if we start off with the VIX, the VIX is down nearly 18% on the week, trading back in the channel. So a close by below 13.77 on Friday at 04:00 p.m. Would give us a new weekly sell signal that would be supportive for higher stock prices. Now, the Dow did not take out last week’s low. It is up a little over a quarter of a percent this week. We’re getting inside weeks for the S&P 500, which is up 1.63% on the week. It did not take or retest last week’s low. That’s also true for the Nasdaq 100, which is up over 2% for the weekend. The Russell’s up 1.72% inside week for the Russell. Then looking at the canadian market. And remember, the TSX and the TSX 60 are still on weekly buy signals here. The TSX up a little over a third of a percent. The TSX 60 up a little less than a third of a percent. So no change there. No major changes for commodities. We’ve got crude oil up on the week, $1.35. It’s up a little more in the premarket this morning. Gold, on the other hand, is down $71.30. Coming into Friday’s trading action.
It’s up $17 at the moment this morning, so no change in trend for gold coming into the weekend. Now moving on, let’s take a look at some daily charts from Thursday’s trading action. Starting off with Hertz which ended the day down nearly 20%. They’re trying to unload their inventory of Tesla’s while Tesla is trying to sell more. Even though I said Wednesday’s trading action in Tesla was rather weak, everybody ignored me and Tesla moved up another nearly 5% on Thursday. Huge down day for Meta yesterday. Recovering a lot going into the close, but that’s still a big open gap. Apple moved up yesterday to the upper channel line, so possibility of a buy signal on Friday for Apple. Then we had Amazon down yesterday leaving a gap but recovering a lot going, going into the close. And then we’ve got IBM down over 8% on the day. So looking pretty ugly there for IBM. IBM has been on a sell signal for a month now. Now somebody was asking me about Home Depot this morning and yes, it looks like a good setup. We’re not there yet. We still need to get some upward momentum here, but we may have put in a low yesterday down at the bottom of the panic zones.
Pressure zone has formed. We bounced off the $328.13 level. It was a bullish reversal day, but we didn’t close above the previous day’s high, so still a lot of work to do there. We’re still looking for a close on Friday above $341.90. Not expecting that to happen on Friday. And if it doesn’t, that upper trend line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now what worked yesterday outside of commodities was the semiconductors. They were up nicely yesterday, being led higher by Teradyne. And then we had Marvell trading up to the upper channel line and we had Nvidia up 3.71% on the day. Didn’t close above the previous day’s high, but investors were very happy to see it move higher. AMD also moved higher yesterday, but not enough to give us a buy signal. Looking for a close on Friday above $159.79. Then looking at the Canadian market, the TSX 60, still on a buy signal here. It traded through the lower channel line yesterday but did not close below. It was led higher yesterday by Teck. People are thinking Teck could be a takeover target and Teck led the TSX 60 higher on Thursday.
Next up, let’s take a look at the world of commodities. And starting off with the USO, we’re looking for a close above $80.53 on Friday to give us a buy signal joining gasoline, which is back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. And what do you know? No joy for natural gas, back on a sell signal. And no change in trend there. Then we’ve got the GLD still on a sell signal. That would change on Friday with a close above $218.79. No joy for palladium or for platinum. And no joy for the SLV. Looking for a close above $25.67 on Friday. Now, what worked yesterday, the best performing sector in North America was the Canadian Gold sector. Up back on a buy signal. And we had Barrick up over 3% on the day. Not enough to give us a buy signal. That would happen on Friday with a close above $23.53. And then we’ve got New Gold, which was up over 5% on the day, back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Then looking at US Gold miners, they’re back on a buy signal. Being led higher by Newmont, which was the best performing stock on the S&P 500 yesterday, up over 12%.
Huge move up for Newmont and the gold sector. Then looking at copper miners, back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. We had Hudbay up nicely yesterday. We had First Quantum up nicely yesterday. And then looking at the silver miners, back on a buy signal. We had Wheaton up nearly 2% on the day. We had Endeavor up nearly 3% on the day, back on a buy signal. We also have Fortuna back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Now moving on to the world of energy. Canadian energy stocks were up yesterday. They’re back on a buy signal. And the big winner there was advantage, which is up nearly 3.5% on the day. Still on a buy signal. No change there. What’s not working? Well, the biggest player in the Canadian Energy market is Canadian Natural Resources. Still looking for a close on Friday above $107.49. In the US, the big cap energy stocks are back on a buy signal. The explorers are back on a buy signal. Still waiting for the equipment makers and the small caps. The big winner yesterday was EQT, which was up just under 2.5% on the day, followed by Baker Hughes.
Now remember, all these continuation trades are more high risk. In a lot of cases they’ll run back up and retest the recent high. So there’s still opportunities to make money. Of course there is the smaller chance that we break out and make higher highs. Right now, all the easy money was made down here. This is certainly a trade and if you’re going short and going long. Of course, you’ve got to take all the long trades and see how far you can run them up. But these are considered higher risk trades. These are lower risk trades. When you’ve had an extended sell off and you’re taking a new buy signal, most of the people that don’t like your stock or your sector have already done something about it and it’s less likely they’re going to do something when the momentum starts to change. So that’s why these are lower risk. These are higher risk trades. A lot of people are trying to get money out up at these levels as we did. And so you’re fighting against those people at the same time you’re trying to move it up. So if crude oil, if gold can continue to move higher from here, that could certainly support these stocks in the commodity world to continue to move higher from here.
So let’s hope for the best. But we had a lot of new buy signals in the commodity world on Thursday and they were the sectors that led the north american markets higher. Okay, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. It’s coming up to end of month. Of course, the end of month is a bullish, has a bullish bias to it. The reason for that is the market knows that automatic money is going to hit the market and they don’t usually like to trade against it. That doesn’t guarantee the market moves higher from here, but it takes a lot of the downward pressure off the market when you’re going into month end. Enjoy the rest of your Friday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
April 26, 2024
