Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, things are very quiet. There’s no economic numbers coming out this morning. We currently have stock index futures just slightly above fair value. We do have gold continuing to move higher on Monday morning. Now, I think I can make this presentation fairly brief this morning. Starting off looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, we’re going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 16.59 this coming Friday. Then, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, we’re going to remain short term bullish on Monday as long as the VIX does not close above 13.80 at 04:00 p.m. This afternoon. Now, the Dow hit 40,000 last week, so a reason to celebrate. Previously, of course, we saw the S&P 500 break through 5000 and the SPY broke through 500. Looking at the Dow Diamonds, our next price target is $406.25 on the weekly charts for the SPY, our next target is $546.88. Looking at the Nasdaq 100 triple Qs, we’re looking at our next target of $468.75. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, our next target is $34.38 on both the daily and the weekly charts.
Now, looking at commodities, crude oil reversed and closed at the previous week’s high, up a little over a little under two and a quarter percent for the week. Looking at a daily chart of crude oil, we ended Friday on a buy signal. So that could be the start of something. We’ll just have to wait and see. Natural gas, on the other hand, was up over 12%. Looking at our daily right side chart, you can see when the uptrend started, and we actually broke through the midterm tether line, and we’re back on a buy signal on a midterm basis. We also broke out above our next price target of 2.73 and closed above the high from back here a couple of months ago. So that could be a bullish sign as well. That 3.13 could be our next price target for natural gas. Looking at the price of gold, it was up over $42 last week. It’s up the $20 and change in the pre market this morning. So it looks like we’re heading towards $2,500. The price of silver was up nearly 10% on the weekend, heading towards 32.81. We closed above $30, so that is no longer psychological resistance.
Now, what worked and what didn’t work last week? Well, two things I can point out. First of all, the winners were all what would be considered fringe sectors of the market, but sectors that we watch closely. And there were only a couple of losers. So not much negativity last week at all. Now, the big winner from the sectors that we follow closely was the Copper Miners, followed by Silver miners, followed by the TSX Global Base Metal index, followed by US Marijuana stocks, which were up nearly 5% on the week, followed by Gold Miners, which were up a little over 4.5%. Then followed by Canadian Marijuana stocks, up over 4%. And then the first, what would be considered a mainstream sector, Semiconductors were up nearly 4% on the weekend. Now, what didn’t work? Well, this list is incredibly small, and no major damage was done to the Home Builders or to the Transportation sector. Still on a sell signal. No change there. And then Industrials were down just over a quarter of a percent, so you hardly notice it on the chart. So last week was a very bullish week for the overall stock market. Now, what worked for the major indices?
Well, for the TSX 60, the biggest winner was First Quantum. For the TSX composite, it was NovaGold. For the Dow 30, Walmart was the big winner last week. That’s a huge move up for Walmart. And then the best performing stock on both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 was Moderna, which was up 13 and a little over 13.25%. What was the second best performer on the S&P 500 was Insulet, which was up nearly 13% and is back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday’s close. Okay, that’s all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. Last week was a very bullish week. The Dow closed over 40,000. So, so far, coming into this week, we’re going to remain short term and long term bullish on the market. Now, canadian markets are closed today. Us markets will be closed next Monday. So everybody gets a day off. Enjoy your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
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Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, May 20, 2024
