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Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. We are coming up to month end. That usually has a bullish bias to it. But this month end also coincides with a Fed meeting. So that could certainly add some volatility to the market on Wednesday. Now, bitcoin is trading higher this morning. It’s on a buy signal right now. There was a bitcoin conference, and there’s a divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum right now, which is still on a sell signal. Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal. That should be negative for stocks, but it’s just negative for a handful of stocks. The rest of the market seems to be doing quite well at the moment, looking for a close on Monday below $13.95. And of course, the big cap tech stocks in the Magnificent Seven are heavily weighted in the market. They’re huge companies. And that’s why you’ve got the VIX on a buy signal and you’ve got those big cap tech stocks on, on a sell signal at the moment. Now, the Dow got some love on Friday.

It turned around on Thursday a little, and then Friday was a big update for it. It generated a sell signal on Wednesday. So on Thursday, we had IBM shoot into the sky and held those gains on Friday, an inside day, down just $0.23. It was 3M on Friday that really kicked the Dow higher up just under 23%. That is not something I don’t think we’ve ever seen before in my lifetime. But what an incredible move for three m. Now, there’s some other non AI stocks that have recently seen some gains and have helped hold the Dow up. You’ve got Johnson and Johnson making a new high on Friday. You’ve got Coca Cola making a new high on Friday. Walmart unfortunately pulled back on Friday and closed just below the lower channel line. So if you’re still long Walmart, if you still have some shares left, you probably want to wait for the next close below the lower channel line before exiting that position. Now, looking at the TSX most actives, and we’re looking at volume weighted this morning. So these are the stocks with the most money trading on Friday. Not the most shares, but the most money.

And looking at this particular group of stocks, it’s heavily weighted in the banks. Those are the biggest companies in Canada, and most of them are doing fairly well at the moment. You’ve got the Royal Bank, which dipped below the lower channel line on Thursday, but did not close below that level. And we closed above the upper channel line on Friday. So no change in trend there. No change in trend for the Bank of Montreal or for the TD Bank. No change in trend for TC Energy. Making a new closing high on Friday. New closing high for CIBC on Friday. So most of the banks are doing well. There’s one that is not Bank of Nova Scotia. Still on a daily sell signal. No change there. A nice big update for Constellation Software on Friday. No joy for Canadian Pacific. Still on a sell signal here. That would change on Monday with a close above $114.26 for Canadian Natural Resources. Still on a sell signal, no change there. And no change for Enbridge, making a new high for this move on Friday. Now moving on to the US most actives from Friday. And again, we’re looking at volume weighted stocks here.

Not just individual share transactions, but shares times price. And this list is totally made up of completely different stocks than the Canadian market, which was heavily weighted in banks. We’re heavily weighted here in technology stocks. We’ve got one conglomerate, we’ve got one automaker, which is pretty well a technology company itself. But you can see why the VIX is on a buy signal right now. The only ten we have here is 3M. Otherwise the rest of the stocks look like they’re on sell signals. And we have both Alphabets, both Googles in this particular list. So starting off looking at Nvidia, no change there. When I’m looking at these charts, I’m not concerned about a new buy signal showing up until we see the stock at least trade into the channel. So that’s why I don’t blurt out the numbers required to generate a buy signal or a sell signal unless we’re trading in the channel. And that is also true for Tesla. Tesla’s found some love at the 218.75 level and the top of that open gap that’s acting as support right now. We may dip down, fill the open gap and come back. If we don’t do that, then look two lines down, 187.50. That would be our next target to the downside.

And otherwise look up two lines, that takes us up to 250. That is our current playing field at the moment. No joy for Microsoft on Friday. No joy for Apple. Apple’s reporting earnings this week had an inside day on Friday. Look at Advanced Micro Devices inside day on Friday after big down day on Thursday coming down to the 137.50 level. If we break that, then of course 125 would be our next target. No joy for the first Alphabet, new low on Friday. We saw money come back into meta on Friday, but nowhere near a buy signal on Monday. That’s also true for Amazon. And there’s the other Alphabet, making a new low on Friday. And last up, we’ve got three m now for three m coming into Friday’s trading action. This is what our price target chart looked like on the daily chart. So we were up at the top of the projected trading range, 106.25 acted as resistance back in May. We were not expecting this stock to move out above that level anytime soon. And what happened on Friday? Well, it broke through. So now we’ve got a new set of price targets.

If you just were lucky enough to own three m on Friday, I would certainly be locking in some profits at the open on Monday morning. Otherwise, our next price target is 134.38 for 3M. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Monday morning. There’s no major economic numbers coming out this morning, so nothing to really stop us from doing that. And of course we’re going to work our way into that Fed meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. And of course, you know, the volatility starts to expand after 02:00 p.m. Wednesday afternoon. Whether expands to the upside or to the downside, only time will tell. Have a great day, and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, July 29, 2024

Hello, everyone, and happy Friday. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with your morning market outlook for Friday, July 26, 2024. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are up across the board, but we do have some major economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that could certainly change the direction of the market. A stock in the news this morning is Dexcom. And coming into today’s trading action, we were on a weekly sell signal since April and on a daily sell signal this week. And yesterday we made a new low for this move, but after hours, the stock dropped dramatically lower. We were coming down to the bottom of our projected trading range on the daily charts. On the weekly charts, our next target to the downside should have been dollar 100, but we are trading all the way down at the dollar 70 level at the moment. So if you’re short Dexcom, you know, you might want to take some money off the table at the open this morning because it’s a, you’re doing pretty good. And to see the stock break down below the lows from last fall is quite an incredible move for this stock.

Now, looking at the commodity sector this morning, we saw a move down in copper yesterday, making a new low before recovering, closing slightly higher on the day. Big down day for gold, down $64 and change on Thursday. It’s up $14, last time I checked this morning. Platinum continued to move lower on Thursday. Silver made a new low for this move. Again, it’s trading up slightly in the pre market this morning, but no change in trend. Now, crude oil reversed yesterday after making a new low, bouncing off the $76 level and closing higher on the day. So we saw some money come back into the energy sector yesterday. No joy for natural gas trying to hold the recent low. Now, the TSX traded down through the lower channel line yesterday. I was expecting it to end the day on a sell signal, but it was held up by real estate and financials. And when we look at the energy sector itself, you can see it reversed and closed higher on the day. So again, some money came back into the energy sector, but no change in trend. Looking at gold stocks on the TSX, we are back on a sell signal.

A little bit more selling on the GDX in New York, but again, we’re on a sell signal for gold stocks coming into Friday’s trading action. Now, we’ve been watching fear rise over the last week and it made a new high for this move. And so things would change on Friday if the VIX were to close below 13.53. Now semiconductors were the big losers yesterday after the commodity sector and we were down nearly 2.5% on the day. Looking at the biggest loser on the Nasdaq, it was actually Lululemon, which was down over 9% on the day. It had been on a sell signal since the start of June. So no change in trend there. If you’re still short Lululemon, congratulations. Arm Holdings was the biggest loser on the Nasdaq in the Semiconductor sector, down nearly 5.5%. But bouncing off the 140 level and then looking at the S&P 500, it was Edwards Life Sciences dropped dramatically yesterday, down over 30% on the day. So no change in trend for that stock. And if you’re short this stock, I’d be locking in some profits at the open on Friday morning. Now, Ford gapped lower yesterday.

We knew that it was going to be on a sell signal coming into yesterday’s trading action. We did. Certainly didn’t know it was going to gap that far down. Now, it had a nice run up. You had lots of opportunities to take some money off the table. So if you do still have a position, it should be a very small position which you need to clean up at the open on Friday morning. Now looking at the Russell 2000, it’s still holding up fairly well. So there’s still a love for mid cap, small cap, micro cap stocks. That has not changed. Now, we did see the Dow rollover and join the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on a sell signal. The TSX is still on a buy signal. So the major us indices are all on sell signals except anything that’s not big cap related at the moment. Now looking at the Dow 30, the big winner yesterday was IBM, which was up over 4% on the day. So huge move up for IBM and congratulations if you’re long IBM. We saw Amgen make a new high for this move before coming down and closing slightly lower on the day.

Certainly no change in trend there. We would need to see a close on Friday below $327.46. Johnson and Johnson made a new high on Thursday. We saw a new high for Coca Cola before pulling back. Still closing higher on the day. No change in trend for Goldman Sachs. That would happen on Friday with a close below $482.37. No change for Unitedhealthcare. Still on a buy signal. Walmart still on a buy signal. Here, treading water up at the $70 level. A close below $69.89 would give us a sell signal on Friday. What’s not working right now? Well, looking at Walt Disney, we made a new low on Thursday, so no change in trend there. Then looking at Nike, Nike started the week on a buy signal and is back on a sell signal right now trying to hold the recent lows. Things would change on Friday if Nike closed above $74.17. Then looking at Visa. Visa is usually a pretty stable stock, but not over the past couple of months in which we’ve made a series of lower highs and lower lows. Gapping lower on Wednesday, making a new low on Thursday. Next target to the downside for Visa is 250.

Amazon making a new low for this move on Thursday. We saw Honeywell gap lower on Thursday. So coming down, trying to hold the dollar 200 level on Friday. New low for Microsoft for this move and a new low for intel for this move as well. Now, intel traded sideways for quite a while over the past few months, so this is a huge band of potential support here and we’ll have to see if that holds. Then looking at the Dow stock itself, not the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but Dow itself, we made a new low for this move, trading through the recent low from a couple of weeks ago, but reversed and nicely going into the close. We still ended the day on a sell signal, so no change there. Okay, folks, that is all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. I’m doing this ahead of the numbers coming out at 830. Right now the Dow is up over 250 points in the pre market, so certainly investors are looking to buy some stocks at the open on Friday unless their minds get changed because of the numbers coming out at 830. Have a great Friday.

Have a great weekend. If you’re a subscriber, I’ll be back on Sunday to take a look at the weekly charts.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, July 26, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading slightly below fair value. Commodities are also trading lower this morning. Now we do have a whole bunch of economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. That could certainly change the direction of the market. We do have crude oil trading lower and gold trading lower. Now, gold was up $8.80 yesterday. It’s down $34 in the pre market. So we’re still on a sell signal here and that’s probably not going to help the Canadian market. The Bank of Canada cut rates yesterday. That didn’t help the TSX. That more than likely will generate a sell signal on Thursday. Now, we came into yesterday’s trading action with the VIX on a buy signal that was bearish for stocks. And we saw the VIX ETF’s. Whether you’re trading the VXX or the HUV, they went up nicely yesterday. Of course, the bear ETF’s also made a nice up move on Wednesday and we talked about these last week. So you’ve got the 2X ETF’s in Canada and the 3X bear ETF’s in the US.

And so we’re long those at the moment. So congratulations. That was a nice update yesterday. It looks like we’re going to continue to move higher on Thursday. Now. Crowdstrike still in the news. It had a new closing low on Wednesday, so nothing going on there. If you’re still short Crowdstrike, you know, just hold on to your remaining positions, but hopefully you’ve taken some money off the table and bought some shares back. Now, we came into yesterday’s trading action with the Magnificent Eight already on a sell signal. Two stocks were still holding up fairly well, Apple and Tesla. But Tesla rolled over yesterday and that caused the ETF to be down over 6%. Tesla ended the day down over 12%. So no change in trend there. Apple still holding up fairly well. It was down nearly 3% yesterday. Then we had Amazon making a new closing low for this move. New closing low for Alphabet. Then we had meta down on the day over 5%. We had Microsoft down three and a half percent and change making a new closing low. New closing low for Nvidia down over 6% on the day. And then Shopify was down over 5% on both sides of the border.

So when we look at Shopify back here, the 200 day moving average was acting as support. Now it’s acting as resistance. We’ve challenged it a couple of times we traded above it, but quickly came back. So now the question is, will we hold the May lows? That’s the next thing we’re looking for. Otherwise, move down to the $70 level would not be unexpected. Looking at the most active TSX stocks from yesterday’s trading action, the Royal Bank was at the top of the list, trading back in the channel. So a close on Thursday below $151.12 would give us a new sell signal. No change for the TD Bank. Still on a sell signal for Manulife. No change there. We’ve got Enbridge, still on a buy signal, no change. We had suncor trade into the channel for the past couple of days, so a close below $52.19 would give us a sell signal on Thursday. Then looking at Bitfarms. Bitfarms closed just a couple of pennies below the lower channel line. We’re back on a sell signal for bit farms, and bitcoin is down in the pre market this morning. CIBC made a new high for this move yesterday before pulling back and closing below the previous day’s low.

So that’s a bearish sign. New closing low for Air Canada on Wednesday. No change in trend there. Looking at Baytek, any lower close on Thursday would give us a sell signal for Baytek. New high for TC Energy on Wednesday. So no change in trend there. Moving over to the us market and we’ll skip the stocks that we’ve already covered. So Ford comes up next. And Ford is back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. It is trading lower in the premarket this morning. We’ve got at and t back on a buy signal right now, and it’s not something I would chase up here at all. I wouldn’t have chased it the last time either. And then looking at Bausch. Bausch down sharply yesterday. This is a Canadian company trading on both sides of the border. Apparently there’s a report out it’s considering bankruptcy. That seems rather bizarre. The stock was doing very well. Nobody had any inkling that that was the case. But that’s the news story that came out yesterday. It is trading slightly lower again in New York this morning. Then intel still on a sell signal. No change there. Sirius, still on a buy signal, no change there.

Then we’ve got Advanced Micro Devices making a new closing low, coming down to test those may lows. And then we’ve got Palantir back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. No change in trend for American Airlines. Still on a sell signal here. And last up, we’ve got Nio still on a sell signal. No change. Looking to see if it can hold the lows from late June. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like the market wants to do a little selling, but we do have a whole raft of economic numbers coming out later this morning before the market opens, and they could certainly throw the market into a different direction. Have a great day folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, July 25, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board while commodities are trading higher on Wednesday morning. Now, there’s lots of premarket activity in some of the stocks we follow closely. We’ve been watching Crowdstrike recently, as has the rest of the market. It closed slightly higher yesterday after making a new low for this move. It is trading up another dollar or two in the pre-market this morning. So a downward pressure might be starting to subside, but that is still no reason to buy this stock. Now. It was the magnificent seven that rolled over last week and put downward pressure on the Nasdaq, and that is continuing to happen this morning with the Magnificent Seven and the Nasdaq 100 both trading lower. Now there are some stocks in the news this morning that we follow closely, including Tesla. Tesla is coming into Wednesday already on a daily sell signal that will continue today with Tesla currently trading down around 8% in the pre-market. We’ve got Nvidia on a sell signal that’s going to continue this morning.

It’s trading lower and Alphabet is also on a sell signal and a trading lower in the pre market. So not looking for any trend changes there. Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal and that is of course telling us that options traders are concerned about the direction of the market. But there are some pockets in the market doing incredibly well right now. So for the VIX to generate a sell signal on Wednesday, we’re looking for a close below 12.89 at the end of the day. Now, what worked on Tuesday? Well, it was, the Micro Caps were the big winners, followed by Regional Banking, US Banks, and then the Russell 2000. Now we’ve got to go farther down the list to look for some Canadian winners. But the big winner was Infotech, followed by the Gold sector. Now, gold stocks traded slightly higher yesterday. Gold was up. It’s on a sell signal right now. It is continuing to trade higher this morning. Not enough to give us a new buy signal, but probably enough to help some gold stocks on Wednesday. Now, unfortunately, energy stocks in the US and Canada rolled over yesterday as crude oil continued to move lower on Tuesday.

Now, semiconductors lost yesterday, but it was an inside day, so not that bad. And transports were also big losers yesterday. But again, it was an inside day. So you can see the losers were not that bad on the day. Now in the Transportation sector, it was ups was the big loser gapping sharply lower on Tuesday. We also, have the airlines still having trouble. Delta still on a sell signal here. No change. American Airlines generated a buy signal last week, but then the Delta thing happened and we’re back on a sell signal. So if American Airlines gives another buy signal, you know, I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t say no to that. And of course, our target would be the bottom of the open gap. Then looking at General Motors, a stock we don’t see very often, but it was down sharply yesterday. Back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Now, looking at the canadian market, the TSX had an inside day and it looks like the bank of Canada is probably going to lower interest rates on Wednesday. And so in anticipation of that, financials have been moving up over the past few weeks, and this could be a buy the rumors, sell, the news type situation.

We see the early warning signals at the top of the panic zones. We’re still on a buy signal here for the financial sector. That is also true for the banking sector. You can see the early warning signals at the top of the screen. We’re still on a buy signal here. We’ve been watching Royal Bank closely as it has been leading this sector higher. It is still on a buy signal here. That would change on Wednesday with a close below $150.88 at the same time one bank rolled over yesterday, and that was the Bank of Nova Scotia, which is now back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We are looking for some selling in the overall market on Wednesday morning. At the same time, commodities are trading higher. That could help some of the Canadian market on Wednesday. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. And at that time, we’ll walk through the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are basically flat. We’ve got commodities mixed with gold higher while crude oil is slightly lower on Tuesday morning.

Well, things turned around on Monday. The VIX pulled back. Still looking for a close below 12.72, on Tuesday to give us a sell signal for the VIX.

All the weakness we saw last week was in the magnificent seven and the semiconductor sector. The rest of the market has so far held up fairly well.

It was an inside day for the Dow yesterday. Looking at the S&P 500, we’re still on a sell signal here, but traded up into the channel. Closed above Friday’s high. So that’s a bullish sign. Equal weighted S&P 500 still on a buy signal. No change there. Looking at the vanguard total world ETF, we’re trading back up into the channel. So things are looking fairly bullish right now. We’ve got the Q’s closing above Friday’s high. We’ve got the Equal Weighted NASDAQ 100 closing above Friday’s high, and the Next Generation NASDAQ 100 closing above Friday’s high. Now, we saw money go back into the Russell 2000, into small caps and micro caps over the last week, and that continued yesterday. So no change there.

Looking at the Magnificent Eight. We’ve got Apple holding up fairly well. A close above $230.22 would get us back on a buy signal on Tuesday.

Not looking for a buy signal for Amazon. Maybe for Alphabet, with earnings coming out. We need to close above 187.51 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. For Meta close above $504.02. For Microsoft, we’re looking for a close above $453.09. And then for Nvidia, looking for a close above $127.47. Looking at Shopify, we made a new low yesterday on both sides of the border. Now Tesla reports today and we’re in the channel at the moment. So a close above $254.71 would give us a new buy signal on Tuesday.

Looking at commodity prices, we’ve got crude oil making a new low. Yesterday, gasoline made a new low, while natural gas traded up into the channel. A close above 15.24 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday.

Then looking at the GLD, second day of a sell signal. The GLD is trading higher in the pre-market this morning.

No joy for palladium, no joy for platinum, and no joy for silver.

Looking at the Canadian market, it was Marijuana stocks were the big winners yesterday. With Tilray moving up and Canopy Growth moving up nearly 17% on the day. Then looking at Sleep Country, which was the big winner yesterday, up over 27%. Then looking at Bombardier. New 52 week high for Bombardier on Monday.

What didn’t work?

Mining stocks didn’t work yesterday. So there’s Ivanhoe was the big loser, followed by Lundin. And then Air Canada made a new low for this move yesterday. We got down to 16.07, 16.03 is the 52 week low and then 16.02 is our next price target. And it looks like we’ve reversed from there, but we need to see if we can start breaking out above the 16.80 level. Then looking at the TSX itself, it was up on the day yesterday. TSX 60 moved higher. So no change there. We are looking at the Energy sector. It dipped below the lower channel line once again. We are trading up into the channel yesterday. We’ve got Gold stock still on a buy signal. No change there, no change for Financials. And Infotech is still holding up fairly well, even with the downward pressure from Shopify.

Now, looking at the most actives, TC Energy was the most actively traded stock yesterday, followed by Enbridge, followed by TD Bank, and then we had Suncor and then followed by Royal Bank which had an inside day on Monday. No change in trend for any of those stocks on Monday.

Okay, that’s all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open on Tuesday morning.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In today’s presentation, we’re going to walk through the Leveraged ETF’s that we follow closely. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. So so far, it looks like the market wants to do some buying on Monday morning. Commodities are mixed with gold higher and crude oil trading lower on Monday morning. Now, one stock that’s in the news again this morning is Crowdstrike got clipped on Friday. Some people were excited that it closed above $300 on Friday, but it’s trading back down below that level in the premarket this morning. When we look at our price target chart, you can see the next target is 281.25. And that was where we put in a low back in April. So we may be heading down to that level on Monday. Now, moving on to our leveraged ETF’s, we’ll start off in the us market, and we saw a couple of trend changes last week. We’re out of the 3X Bull for the S&P 500 back into the Bear ETF. We’re out of the 3X Bull for the Nasdaq 100 back into the Bear ETF, and we’re out of the 3X Bull for semiconductors and back into the Bear ETF.

Now, what hasn’t changed trends? Well, Small Cap stocks are still holding up, still trading above the upper channel line. We’ve got the energy sector still trading above the upper channel line. We saw weakness in Biotech’s trading into the channel, so a close on Monday below $127.06 would give us a sell signal. We had Gold Miners trade into the channel and through the lower channel line on Friday, looking for a close on Monday below $44.34. And as I mentioned, gold is up in the pre-market this morning. Now, of course, for each one of these symbols, we do have price targets and on our website. And so for the 3x Bear ETF, for the S&P 500, our first target is 781 and then 859. Now, looking at the Canadian leveraged ETF’s, of course, we don’t have the option for 3X, so we’re at 2X, so a little more conservative. But looking at the TSX itself, we are still on a buy signal here for the Bull ETF. So no change in trend, unlike the S&P 500 that rolled over last week. And so we’re on a buy signal for the Bear ETF and then looking at the Nasdaq 100.

We’re on a sell signal and back on a buy signal for the Bear ETF. Then looking at the energy sector. On Friday, the energy stocks closed just below the lower chain line. So we’re now on a sell signal for the Bull and a buy signal for the Bear ETF for the energy sector. Looking at financials, they’re still on a buy signal. No change there. No change in trend for Gold stocks. We’re still on a buy signal here. Just like in the US. We traded down to the lower channel and on Friday. So on Monday we’re looking for a close below $20.31. And then looking at the Energy commodities, we’re still on a buy signal for the 2X bare ETF for Crude oil and we’re still on a buy signal for the 2X Bear ETF for Natural Gas. So no change in trend for those ETF’s. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like the market wants to do a little bit of shopping on Monday morning. It’s not going to be enough to change the overall trend of the market. First thing we’ll be looking for is to see if the market can close above Friday’s high.

That would be the first sign that something new is happening on Monday. Have a great day folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, July 22, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with your morning market outlook. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning, so it’s really all to do with individual companies. We’ve got Microsoft down in the pre market. Microsoft and cloud strike are having some technical issues this morning. Cloudstrike is trading all the way down to $300 in the pre market. So both of those stocks already on sell signals. So no change in trend there. Netflix was out with earnings and it’s trading lower in the pre market as well. So again, no change in trend. Now. Fear has been rising this week, and the VIX was up over 10% yesterday. That, of course, is not good for stocks now. So far, it is really only hit the tech sector. We’re seeing some pullbacks in other areas of the market, but no major sell signals just yet. So we’ve got the Nasdaq 100 on a sell signal. Now we’ve got the S&P 500 on a sell signal. What’s not on a sell signal? Well, the Dow made a new high yesterday before reversing.

So that’s a big bearish reversal day for the Dow. So we’ve probably topped out. And then looking at the Equal Weighted S&P 500, it looked pretty similar yesterday. So the Equal Weighted S&P 500 is not on a sell signal so far. And the Russell 2000, it put in a bearish reversal day on Wednesday, but it did not close below the previous day’s low. Thursday’s trading action took care of that, closing below the previous two days low. So that’s looking pretty bearish for the Russell 2000. And we talked about this before taking money off the table up at the 225 level, that was probably a good thing to do. Now the areas of weakness, communication services, semiconductors, technology, that’s the places that have broken down so far. The rest of the market is still holding up fairly well. Homebuilders, which was the big mover this week, looked like they topped yesterday, big reversal day after making a new high. We made a new high yesterday for the XLF, the financials, and then it pulled back. If we go back to last Friday on our weekly chart, we were looking for a move up to 43.75. We did that on Wednesday and Thursday and reversed.

So that’s probably as far as we’re going to get right now. And there’s the bearish reversal signal from yesterday’s trading action. Now moving on to the Canadian stock market. It’s still holding up fairly well. The iShares for the TSX 60 have been down the last two days and came back and settled on 34.38 last night. 34.38 of course is a number I’ve mentioned a lot over the past couple of years and 34.38 was our next target on the weekly chart from last Friday. We were able to trade above it for a couple of days, but came right back down and sat on it on Thursday at the close. So we’ll have to see if that continues to act as support. I don’t think it will on Friday. There’s the Vanguard Canada ETF down the last two days we saw Small Caps trade back into the channel. Micro caps back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Now looking at bank stocks, they made a new high for this move. So we’re coming up to the highs from back in May and that may be as far as we can get at the present time.

Energy stocks still on a buy signal. No change here. Gold stocks making a new high on Wednesday, pulling back on Thursday. We’ve got gold down over $40 in the pre market this morning, so that could certainly put downward pressure on gold stocks. Looking at the IT sector, it traded right down to the lower channel line. So we’re looking at the iShares for the canadian tech sector. Came down and we’re looking for a close on Friday below $53.20. The big loser yesterday percentage terms was Bitfarms looking for a close on Friday below $3.51. Unfortunately, BlackBerry is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. We also have lights be back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close and then Shopify still on a sell signal. And we continued to move lower on Thursday. Now crude oil was trading higher yesterday, traded above the upper channel line, but ended the day slightly lower. So we’re still on a sell signal here. We’re trading lower in the premarket on Friday morning. We still need to close above 81.77 on Friday to give us a buy signal. No joy for natural gas inside day on Thursday.

And then looking at copper. Copper was down sharply yesterday. That put pressure on mining stocks in general. And the biggest loser from yesterday’s trading action was the TSX Global Base Metal ETF. It was down over 4% on the day and starting to trade below the low from back in June. Looking at the price of gold, it pulled back yesterday just $3.50. It’s down $43 right now. So we’re looking at a potential sell signal on Friday. We put in a bearish reversal day on Wednesday and then had a pullback on Thursday. We’re trying to get to $2,500 so far. That doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to do that at this time. We do not have an early warning signal just yet, but that’ll probably happen on Friday. Looking at the most actively traded gold stock from Thursday’s trading action was Barrick and looked like peaked on Wednesday down on Thursday. We need to close all the way down there at $24.37 on Friday to give us a new daily sell signal. Okay, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. I’ve been trying to encourage you to sell into strength to take money off the table.

We talked about the Qs at $500. We talked about the SPY at 562.50. We talked about the iShares for the Russell 2000 at 225. You know, these are places that you want to be locking in some profits. You don’t want to completely liquidate a position because, you know, you just don’t know. But it’s prudent. You know, if you’re running this as a business that you take money off the table on a regular basis. And hopefully I’ve encouraged some of you to do just that. So that’s all for me for this week. Have a wonderful day. Have a wonderful weekend. And if you’re a paid subscriber, we’ll be back on Sunday to take a look at the weekly charts.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, July 19, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are mixed. We’ve got the exact opposite this morning of Wednesday’s trading action. We’ve got the Nasdaq futures trading higher. Little selling in the Dow in the S&P 500 this morning with those Nasdaq futures trading higher. If you’ve got any new sell signals from Wednesday’s trading action, you’re going to get to sell into strength at the open on Thursday morning. We’ll start off taking a look at the us market this morning and then we’ll finish off looking at the Canadian market. And at the end, we’ll take a quick look at commodity prices, starting with the VIX. We had a big update yesterday. We’re starting to break out above the 200 day moving average. And so that’s where you’re going to get the rest of the market’s attention. I think what happened yesterday certainly got a lot of people’s attention, but at the same time, you know, we still had the Dow trading higher, making new highs on Wednesday. So the big loser from Wednesday was semiconductors. And we’ve got a new sell signal for the Nasdaq 100.

We’ve got a new sell signal for the Magnificent Seven ETF. So we saw selling in all of those areas yesterday. Looking at Apple, it is still on a buy signal here, looking for a close on Thursday below $225.32. Apple is currently trading slightly higher in the pre market. And we also have Tesla still on a buy signal. That would change on Thursday with a close below $237.80. And Tesla is trading slightly higher on Thursday morning. Now, looking at the Dow, it made a new high yesterday, being led higher by Johnson and Johnson, Cisco, Chevron and JP Morgan. Those were the big winners on the Dow from Wednesday’s trading action. The S&P 500 pulled back into the channel yesterday looking for a close on the spy for Thursday below $554.69. The mid cap, small cap, micro caps all did well yesterday. All held up very well. No aggressive selling there just yet. Looking at us financials, they made a new high on Wednesday. We also saw regional banks make a new high. So huge move up for regional banks over the past couple of weeks. So obviously the cloud is starting to move away from that particular area of the market.

Moving on to the Canadian market. The iShares for the TSX 60 had an inside day on Wednesday. So a day of indecision. We saw the financials make a new high and close just slightly lower on the day. No major change there. New high for Canadian banks on Wednesday so no change in trend. Now we did have manual life rollover so it is back on a sell signal. The Royal Bank made a new high yesterday, ran up to our next price target of 153.13. If we can keep going, 156.25 is our next target. And then we saw the TD Bank make a new high for this move on Wednesday. We also saw the TSX or the TMX group also make a new high on Wednesday before pulling back. Just closing down $0.04 on the day. Now what worked yesterday? Well, communication services, those are the telecom stocks, were the big winner. Infotech was the big loser. So a complete reversal of what’s been happening over the past couple of months. Looking at the telecom or the communication services sector. Nice big update being led higher by Cogeco. That stock was up over 10% on the day.

Then looking at BCE had a nice day. We’ve got Quebecore barely generating a buy signal here. Then we had Rogers continuing to move higher and tell us continuing to move higher. Now looking at what didn’t work. While Infotech had a big reversal day, it made a new high on Tuesday, pulled back on Wednesday and we talked about Shopify in the pre market yesterday. Not something I wanted to chase and it was trading slightly lower in the pre market. But as you can see, we are back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. So complete reversal for Shopify. If you’re coming into Thursday’s trading action, we’re looking for a close again above $91.48 to give Shopify a new daily buy signal. Celestica rolled over yesterday. It is back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. BlackBerry had an inside day on Wednesday looking for a close on Thursday below $3.31. If we can start breaking out above 352 then 391 comes into play and the that is certainly a legitimate target to the upside for BlackBerry. Last up this morning, taking a look at commodities, we had a nice reversal in crude oil yesterday, looking for a close above $81.76 on Thursday to give us a buy signal.

No joy for natural gas. Making a new low for this move on Wednesday. Looking at copper, still on a sell signal. No change. No change in trend for gold. It was a bearish reversal day on Wednesday, but did not close below the previous day’s low, trying to get to $2,500. That is our next mathematical target and it’s certainly a big round number. Unfortunately, silver is back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Looks like some people want to do a little bargain hunting in the tech sector on Thursday morning. If the stocks that you follow from Wednesday generated sell signals, well, you get to sell into some strain strength on Thursday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Thank you for watching today’s presentation. If you found this video useful, please consider hitting the like button, sharing it, and subscribing to our channel to ensure you never miss a video. We look forward to having you join us for our next daily market update.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, July 18, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are currently down across the board, being led lower by the Nasdaq, which is currently down about 1.5%. At the same time, commodities are continuing to push higher on Wednesday morning. Now, we do have some economic numbers coming out this morning.

We’ve got housing permits and industrial activity coming out before the market opens. Homebuilders were the big winners on Tuesday, up nearly six on the day. So huge move up for homebuilders over the last week. We saw the VIX move up again on Tuesday. So options traders are getting ready for something, and that may be starting today.

We’ve got the Dow having a huge move up on Tuesday, up over 700 points. That particular index was led higher by United Healthcare, Caterpillar, Boeing, and Home Depot. Those were the big winners on Tuesday. We do have Boeing back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Now, the Russell 2000 looks like this.

That’s not really how a major indices should look. It looks like a stock with a takeover offer. So that’s a little scary at the moment. We tried to hit 225 yesterday. If you haven’t taken money off the table already, you should do so on Wednesday morning and just lock in some profits.

And anytime I say take money off the table, I’m not telling you to completely liquidate a position. You know, if you own 100 shares, sell 50. If you own 50, sell 25. Just get some money off the table back into your account. We want to completely liquidate a position on the first close below the lower channel line, and we’re certainly not expecting to see that on Wednesday morning.

Now, the Nasdaq is still dealing with resistance. That hasn’t changed. The magnificent seven ran up to the dollar 50 level last week and has started to pull back. And those stocks are leading us down in the pre market this morning. We’ll take a look at those in a minute.

Now, the canadian market was able to punch through resistance at 34.38 and run right up to the next target for the iShares, for the TSX 60 at 34.77. Now, it had a lot to do with gold, and gold was up again yesterday. And you can see Barrick was up nearly 5% on the day, so gold certainly helped. But Shopify was the big winner on the TSX 60. It was up over 8% on the day, and it apparently got an upgrade, and that caused the stock to gap higher at the open so we came into Tuesday on a sell signal already.

I’m not sure I would chase Shopify here. I’d give it a couple of days because the rest of the tech sector is pulling back on Wednesday morning. Shopify is down a little in New York and not as much as some of the other biggest tech stocks, but it is pulling back in the pre market. So I’m not sure how much, how long this particular move for Shopify will last, but that’s just my gut feeling. If you love Shopify and want to own it, you know, step in slowly and wait and see if it can gain momentum from here.

Now, looking at the Magnificent Eight, we’ve still got Apple on a buy signal. It closed slightly higher yesterday. We were trying to get to 237.50. We were not able to do so. So we’re maybe pulling away from that level.

We already have Amazon on a sell signal. Now we have Alphabet on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close, joining Meta and Microsoft already on Sell signals. Nvidia is still holding up, sitting right on the edge of a new sell signal. That would happen on on Wednesday with a close below $126.21. There’s Shopify in New York, Shopify in Toronto, big pop yesterday.

We’re on the wrong side of that, but that happens every once in a while. And then Tesla. Tesla is still on a buy signal here. It’s pulling back in the pre market this morning. So far it’s not enough to give us a sell signal.

That would happen on Wednesday with a close below $235.55. Now it is the bond market that’s causing the stock market to rise at the moment. Bonds started to move up last week. And of course that puts downward pressure on interest rates. And here we’ve got the TLT, the XBB, both on buy signals.

We’ve got emerging market bonds on buy signals, and we have junk bonds moving nicely higher on Tuesday. Now, when I show these charts, I’m hopefully not encouraging any of you to trade bonds. Historically, bonds are not as volatile as stocks, so it’s much harder to make capital gains in the bond market. When we look at how wide the Flypaper channel is, you can see it’s fairly wide. Right now.

The average true range on the TLT is only 1.16%. That is not enough to trade. Where I am interested in trading bonds is in the futures market because you get much more leverage in the futures market than you do with a bond ETF, even if you buy the bond ETF on margin. So the 30 year bond is on a buy signal. The average true range for the 30 year bond is just 1.13%.

But again, you’re not trading it for that. You’re trading it for the leverage in the futures market. And you can see that bond yields are currently on sell signals continuing to head lower. That’s helping fuel this last move that we’re seeing in the stock market. Okay, folks, that is all for Wednesday morning.

We’re looking for some selling on the open on Wednesday morning, and we’ll just have to see if it’s enough to put the Nasdaq 100 back on a daily sell signal. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are currently flat. It looks like the market’s waiting for those retail sales numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.

Now, we also have crude oil trading lower in the pre market this morning, so we actually may end Tuesday on a sell signal for crude oil. Gold is trading higher in the pre market, so we might be taking a run at that previous high. Now, the VIX is actually back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close now, I really don’t think the market is going to notice a small move in the VIX like that. It’s probably going to take more of a breakout above the 200 day moving average which held us in check back in May. If that starts to happen, I think the market would really pay attention to that and start selling off.

We are stuck at resistance. That doesn’t guarantee anything. It’s just we had a target. We hit our target. We stopped for the ishares

for the TSX 60. Our next target was 34.38. We closed at 34.37 yesterday. For the SPY, 562.50. We closed just below that yesterday.

For the Nasdaq, 100. $500 was our next target. We traded just above that yesterday before pulling back and closing below that level. Still closing higher on the day. I’ve been looking at a lot of price targets.

This one was interesting. The next generation Nasdaq stocks. We knew last week if we could take out these recent highs, then our next target would be 28.91. And what did we close at yesterday? We closed at 28.91.

So we’ve spent two days at this price target. We’ve traded above it, but we haven’t been able to break away from it just yet. If we can, then 29.69 is our next target to the upside now. Bitcoin and Ethereum popped yesterday, both gapping higher, both back on buy signals as of Monday’s close. Now, we’ve seen a lot of financials earnings lately, and the financials rocketed higher yesterday.

If we look at the Panic Zone chart, remember, we’re always looking for low risk buying opportunities off the bottom of the panic zones. When a Pressure Zone is forming. A lot of times you don’t get back to the bottom of the Panic Zones because the symbol that you’re following is actually becoming more bullish. Remember, we had the early warning signals up there. We had a pullback.

What happened? We put in a higher low so once you start breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows and you start making higher highs and higher lows, then you’ve got to expect that pattern to continue. And so what’s happened? We recently put in a higher high. So once the pattern breaks, once a new pattern starts, you should expect that pattern to continue until it doesn’t.

So there’s the Bank ETF and the Regional Bank ETF both rocketing higher from the middle of last week and looking at individual symbols. Bank of America has moved up nicely over the past few months without a major pullback, making a new high yesterday. Citigroup had a much more significant pullback from the middle of May into the middle of June and it traded through the lower channel line on Friday but came back on Monday. So no change in trend there. We also saw a dip for JPMorgan on Friday but it pulled back on Monday making a new high.

There’s key corp trading up to the previous highs from May. We had a new high for PMC yesterday. Goldman Sachs made a new high, Morgan Stanley made a new high. But Wells Fargo on the other hand dipped sharply lower on Friday. Came back yesterday.

But that’s looking like a pretty ugly stock putting in a lower high over the past week or so. Now moving on to the canadian market, we’ve got the Canadian financials breaking out above the previous high. Banks haven’t done that just yet. There’s a couple of sloppy looking banks right now, including the bank of Montreal and the Bank of Nova Scotia. CIBC had a nice update yesterday but obviously it has disappointed investors over the past couple of months we’ve had some quite dramatic moves for a canadian bank.

Now National Bank we know gapped lower because the takeover offer but it’s made quite a nice recovery over the past few weeks. The Royal Bank is the elephant in the room and it set off some alarm bells the other day. We had an early warning signal on the panic zone chart. We had a bearish reversal day. We made a new high on Thursday then pulled back and closed lower on the day.

So that can set off alarm bells. What we didn’t do was close below the previous day’s low. So nothing has shown up here. The chevron is indicating that we’re putting in a top right now but obviously we don’t have a lot of confirmation that that is actually happening. So that chevron may fade away over the next few days if we we don’t start heading lower right now.

Then looking at the TD Bank, it’s had a nice couple of days it’s been on a buy signal for a few weeks now. So while canadian banks are lagging against their us counterparts at the moment, they are certainly on buy signals right now. Looking at some of the insurance companies. There’s Great West, there’s Industrial Alliance and then it looks like everybody loves Intact at the moment. And then we’ve got Manulife dipping into the channel yesterday but still closing slightly higher on the day.

So no change there and then no change for Sunlife. We’re making a new high for this move and we’ve traded up to 68.75 for the past couple of days. If we can take that out, then 70.31 is our next target. Is that a realistic target? We’ll just look to the left here and you’ll certainly see that that acted as resistance back in May.

So that is certainly a realistic target to the upside for sun life. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Everybody’s really happy with financials at the moment. We don’t have any major early warning signals just yet. The market has traded up to resistance and stopped.

We’ll have to see if those major indices can continue to push higher from here. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, July 16, 2024