Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with your morning market outlook. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning, so it’s really all to do with individual companies. We’ve got Microsoft down in the pre market. Microsoft and cloud strike are having some technical issues this morning. Cloudstrike is trading all the way down to $300 in the pre market. So both of those stocks already on sell signals. So no change in trend there. Netflix was out with earnings and it’s trading lower in the pre market as well. So again, no change in trend. Now. Fear has been rising this week, and the VIX was up over 10% yesterday. That, of course, is not good for stocks now. So far, it is really only hit the tech sector. We’re seeing some pullbacks in other areas of the market, but no major sell signals just yet. So we’ve got the Nasdaq 100 on a sell signal. Now we’ve got the S&P 500 on a sell signal. What’s not on a sell signal? Well, the Dow made a new high yesterday before reversing.
So that’s a big bearish reversal day for the Dow. So we’ve probably topped out. And then looking at the Equal Weighted S&P 500, it looked pretty similar yesterday. So the Equal Weighted S&P 500 is not on a sell signal so far. And the Russell 2000, it put in a bearish reversal day on Wednesday, but it did not close below the previous day’s low. Thursday’s trading action took care of that, closing below the previous two days low. So that’s looking pretty bearish for the Russell 2000. And we talked about this before taking money off the table up at the 225 level, that was probably a good thing to do. Now the areas of weakness, communication services, semiconductors, technology, that’s the places that have broken down so far. The rest of the market is still holding up fairly well. Homebuilders, which was the big mover this week, looked like they topped yesterday, big reversal day after making a new high. We made a new high yesterday for the XLF, the financials, and then it pulled back. If we go back to last Friday on our weekly chart, we were looking for a move up to 43.75. We did that on Wednesday and Thursday and reversed.
So that’s probably as far as we’re going to get right now. And there’s the bearish reversal signal from yesterday’s trading action. Now moving on to the Canadian stock market. It’s still holding up fairly well. The iShares for the TSX 60 have been down the last two days and came back and settled on 34.38 last night. 34.38 of course is a number I’ve mentioned a lot over the past couple of years and 34.38 was our next target on the weekly chart from last Friday. We were able to trade above it for a couple of days, but came right back down and sat on it on Thursday at the close. So we’ll have to see if that continues to act as support. I don’t think it will on Friday. There’s the Vanguard Canada ETF down the last two days we saw Small Caps trade back into the channel. Micro caps back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Now looking at bank stocks, they made a new high for this move. So we’re coming up to the highs from back in May and that may be as far as we can get at the present time.
Energy stocks still on a buy signal. No change here. Gold stocks making a new high on Wednesday, pulling back on Thursday. We’ve got gold down over $40 in the pre market this morning, so that could certainly put downward pressure on gold stocks. Looking at the IT sector, it traded right down to the lower channel line. So we’re looking at the iShares for the canadian tech sector. Came down and we’re looking for a close on Friday below $53.20. The big loser yesterday percentage terms was Bitfarms looking for a close on Friday below $3.51. Unfortunately, BlackBerry is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. We also have lights be back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close and then Shopify still on a sell signal. And we continued to move lower on Thursday. Now crude oil was trading higher yesterday, traded above the upper channel line, but ended the day slightly lower. So we’re still on a sell signal here. We’re trading lower in the premarket on Friday morning. We still need to close above 81.77 on Friday to give us a buy signal. No joy for natural gas inside day on Thursday.
And then looking at copper. Copper was down sharply yesterday. That put pressure on mining stocks in general. And the biggest loser from yesterday’s trading action was the TSX Global Base Metal ETF. It was down over 4% on the day and starting to trade below the low from back in June. Looking at the price of gold, it pulled back yesterday just $3.50. It’s down $43 right now. So we’re looking at a potential sell signal on Friday. We put in a bearish reversal day on Wednesday and then had a pullback on Thursday. We’re trying to get to $2,500 so far. That doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to do that at this time. We do not have an early warning signal just yet, but that’ll probably happen on Friday. Looking at the most actively traded gold stock from Thursday’s trading action was Barrick and looked like peaked on Wednesday down on Thursday. We need to close all the way down there at $24.37 on Friday to give us a new daily sell signal. Okay, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. I’ve been trying to encourage you to sell into strength to take money off the table.
We talked about the Qs at $500. We talked about the SPY at 562.50. We talked about the iShares for the Russell 2000 at 225. You know, these are places that you want to be locking in some profits. You don’t want to completely liquidate a position because, you know, you just don’t know. But it’s prudent. You know, if you’re running this as a business that you take money off the table on a regular basis. And hopefully I’ve encouraged some of you to do just that. So that’s all for me for this week. Have a wonderful day. Have a wonderful weekend. And if you’re a paid subscriber, we’ll be back on Sunday to take a look at the weekly charts.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, July 19, 2024
