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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. It’s still pretty early in the morning. In this presentation, we’re going to take a look at the US market, bonds, commodities, and then we’ll finish off looking at the Canadian market.

Now, the media was pretty excited about what happened yesterday, but it was really an inside day, a pause day, a day of indecision. It wasn’t the greatest day that has happened in a couple of years. It was just traded within the previous day’s range. So we still have an elevated ViX. So we are expecting more thrashing around here.

The VIX is trading in the channel right now. So a close on Friday below 19.22 would give us a sell signal that would certainly be bullish for stocks. Now, the Dow Diamonds closed right at the previous day’s high, while the S&P 500 had an inside day. Remember, we were looking at resistance at 531.25. We got as high as 531.29 yesterday before pulling back a little going into the close now we are trading higher in the pre market and our next mathematical target is 539.06.

Now, the other day we were looking at Fibonacci retracement numbers and the first one got pretty close to our mathematical target. So 531 15, we’re closing just below that on Thursday. So we’re looking to open up around that level on Friday. If we keep going, then 537 64 is our next Fibonacci target. And that is getting pretty close to our mathematical target, which we have posted on the website.

So it was an inside day for the equal weighted S&P 500. Yesterday it was in the inside day for the Nasdaq 100. I think the high of the day was like a penny off of the previous day’s high high. We’re finding support at the 200 day moving average, so we may see resistance at the hundred day if we start moving up from here. And of course, we’re now below the flypaper channel, so that channel is going to act as resistance.

So not getting overly bullish here. We certainly have seen some stocks pop over the past couple of days, but the overall market yesterday had an inside day. Now, our next mathematical target for the Nasdaq 100 is 453.13. Now, right now, coming into Friday’s trading action, you can see that the pros down here are not that close to taking control on Fridays. Looking at the Russell 2000, it had an inside day, small caps, micro caps, had an inside day on Thursday.

Then looking at the Semiconductors, they also had an inside day on Thursday. Now an area of the market I watch closely, but I don’t trade is the financials and in that world we had an inside day for financials, for banks, for regional banks and for insurance companies on Thursday. Now moving over one of the reasons that the market has moved up over the past couple of days. As we’ve seen bond prices come down sharply over the past couple of days. Whether you’re looking at the TLT or on the TSX, you’re looking at the XBB.

And we’ve also seen money come back into the junk bonds, high yield bonds. They have moved up over the past couple of days. Again, that’s an inside day for the a junk bond ETF. Now looking at commodity prices, we had an inside day for copper on Thursday. Gold moved up and closed above the previous day’s high, so that could be bullish going into Friday’s trading action.

No joy for platinum, still on a sell signal here. And we had an outside reversal day for silver, making a new low for this move on Thursday. Looking at the energy sector, we’ve got crude oil moving up into the channel. So a close above $77 on Friday would give us a new buy signal and that would join natural gas futures which closed on Thursday. Back on a buy signal, let’s finish off looking at the Canadian market.

And the TSX did not close above the previous day’s high, unlike the TSX 60, which did. And that got some love for not only Shopify, which closed above the previous day’s high, and so we’re looking for resistance there at the high from back in July. But we saw a big move up in Canadian Tire yesterday and that helped move the TSX 60 above the TSX on Thursday. The mid caps, small caps and micro caps had an inside day on Thursday. So just like their us counterparts, we did see energy stocks move up into the channel.

So if we get crude oil continuing to move higher on Friday, we could end the day on a buy signal for the energy sector. The Canadian financials, just like the us financials, had an inside day. It was an inside day for the Bank of Montreal, for Intact Financial and for Manulife. Now this Manulife chart is looking pretty bearish. We had a high put in a lower high.

We were looking to see if the recent low would hold. It didn’t then you expect this low to hold and that didn’t. So we’re making a lower high and a lower low. That is a bearish chart pattern. That was an inside day yesterday for the gold sector, inside day for Barrick and then the industrials also had an inside day.

We saw an inside day for Air Canada. I have no idea why it’s in the industrial sector. Inside day for bombardier, but not an inside day for CN which actually made a new low for this move on Thursday. Now infotech stocks were up. We know Shopify continued to move higher yesterday.

We also saw a new high for the telecom sector with all of the telecoms doing fairly well right now. Inside day for BCE, new high for Cogeco Cable. We saw a new high for Quebec core and a new high for this move for Rogers. On the other hand, Telus had a fairly quiet day. Made a new high four days ago.

Still on a buy signal here. No change in trend for Telus. Okay folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation so far. It looks like the market wants to do a little buying at the open on Friday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. And for members, I’ll be back on the weekend to look at the weekly charts.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, August 9, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. well ahead of the jobless claims numbers that are coming out at 8:30 this morning. Stock index futures are mixed right now while commodities are trading higher on Thursday morning. Let’s start off as we usually do with the VIX.

The VIX closed above the upper channel line last night. We are looking for a close on Thursday below 18.38. If that were to happen, our view on the stock market would certainly change. We’re going to spend some time looking at the SPY this morning and starting off with the Panic Zone chart. We’re obviously oversold here.

We’re not extremely oversold. We haven’t seen any panic selling just yet. Yes, we gapped lower on Monday, but it wasn’t the worst thing that could have happened. Remember, when the Dow is down 1000 points, when it’s up near 40,000, that’s a lot different than when the Dow was at 10,000 or 5000. You know, in percentage terms, it wasn’t a major decline.

Now, you can see we’re still projecting lower prices here. So we wouldn’t be surprised if we take out Monday’s low to head down to the $500 level. That would be our next logical place to head. Now, looking at what’s happened over the past couple of days, it certainly hasn’t encouraged the pros to come back and take control, especially yesterday where we closed near the low of the day. Now we are coming down to the 200 day moving average that could potentially act as support.

And that is above the $500 level. We are holding the bottom of the Flypaper Channel and it’s called the Flypaper Channel because we usually get stuck to it. It will act as support when you’re trading from above. When you’re trading from below, it often acts as resistance. So if we start getting down towards 500, we could break away from the flypaper channel and that would be bearish for the market going forward.

Now, going back to our weekly chart from last weekend, 562.50. That was our profit target. We hit that and then started to pull back over the past couple of weeks. Friday we ended just above the 531.25 level. So that was support.

And unfortunately, this week we’ve broken down below it. And our next weekly target is dollar 500. When we look at our daily price targets, you can see on Friday we closed just above the 531.25 level. On Monday we gapped lower. Tuesday we clawed our way back.

And on Wednesday we traded up to 531.25 level. In fact, we got a little above it at 531.59 before quickly reversing and heading straight down. Now looking at our daily right side chart, you can see on Thursday we need to close above 542.75 to give us a new daily buy signal. If that doesn’t happen on Thursday, of course, that the upper channel line is continuing to move lower daily. Now looking at the Equal Weighted S&P 500, you can see we had similar trading action yesterday where the whole market came down going into the close.

That was also true for the Nasdaq 100. It was also true for the Russell 2000. So a big bearish reversal day yesterday and looking at semiconductors, they had an outside reversal day. We made it all the way up to the lower channel line and then came right down. So we’re really looking to see if those Monday lows hold.

Now looking at the Canadian market, we had a huge pop in Shopify yesterday. That wasn’t enough to hold the market up and it actually closed slightly lower on the day after having that big move up at the open. Then looking at the Financials, they moved down yesterday, actually made a new low for this move on Wednesday. And then Energy stocks tagged the lower channel line before reversing, still closing higher on the day. Unlike Gold stocks which made a new low for this move.

Now the price of gold is up higher in the pre market this morning. That may or may not help the sector. If the stock market starts to head down on Thursday, the sector may go with it. Now, looking at the Magnificent Eight, the ETF itself is holding up fairly well. Didn’t take out the previous day’s low.

Some of the stocks in the Magnificent Eight actually closed higher yesterday, including Apple, which was up on the day hitting the lower channel line. I get concerned about a potential buy signal when a stock trades into the channel and closes in the channel. That did not happen for Apple. We also had Amazon up on the day, nowhere near a buy signal. Looking at Alphabet, it also closed slightly higher on the day.

What didn’t work yesterday? Meta Meta was down on the day. It’s still on a buy signal here. Again, not something I want to be a part of at the moment. Then looking at Microsoft closing slightly lower on the day after trading higher during the day.

That was also true for Nvidia had an outside reversal day on Wednesday. Shopify popped yesterday on both sides of the border. Not something I would chase at the time. At this particular time, we’ve got the rest of the market having trouble. I don’t think Shopify is going to be able to hold these gains for very long.

I could be wrong, but that’s just what my gut tells me. And then Tesla. Tesla actually closing lower on the day. So no changes in trend outside of Shopify. So shopify the big winner yesterday and unfortunately it’s not the time and place to be chasing Shopify.

Let’s finish off looking at commodity ETF’s and we had crude oil trade up into the channel yesterday so a close above 75.95 would give us a buy signal on Thursday. Looking at gasoline we need to close above 65 on Thursday to give us a buy signal. Natural gas is sitting right on the upper channel line so any higher close here would generate a buy signal on Thursday. No joy for the GLD from Wednesday’s trading action. We did see Palladium trade up into the channel so a close above 83.67 would give us a buy signal on Thursday.

No joy for Platinum still on a sell signal here and no joy for Silver making a new low on Wednesday. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. I don’t think we’re going to know which way the market’s going to open till after those jobless claims come out at 830. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, August 8, 2024

fter the recent big decline in the market I see that the S&P 500 is trading up again on Wednesday.

In speaking with a member this morning, we were talking about a possible upside target the S&P 500 before the market starts to move down again.

Let me walk you through what that might look like.

Let’s start off by using the major move from the April low to the recent July high.

Typically, when a market retraces a significant move it usually hits a Fibonacci target.
A small retracement would be 25%, while normal retracements are usually 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%.

In this particular example, the retracement was even more significant as it dropped all the way down to the 75% retracement level.

As you can see from the chart above, we traded right down to the 75% retracement level and bounced.

It’s not very often that markets make this large of a retracement unless something else is going on.

Now from an Elliott Wave point of view, Our analysis suggests that we’ve completed 3 waves down.

The next move would be a retracement wave 4 up, and then an ultimate wave 5 down breaking the recent low.

Based on the data we have up until Tuesday’s closing price, you can see where Elliott wave is projecting a retracement up to the 2 -4- lines.

Yesterday’s high traded right up into that range.

I put my cursor right on the upper line, which is at $531.62.

As of 2 PM Eastern time Wednesday afternoon, the high the day so far it’s been $531.59.

Another way of looking at this data is to measure from the recent high, down to Monday’s low, and calculate the retracement values for a move up.

This gives us a slightly different target of $531.15.

If the market is able to break through that level of resistance, you can see the next 2 targets above.

It would be quite normal to expect a retest of Monday’s low. If that doesn’t hold, here are the next downside targets using Fibonacci Projections.

As you can see, these projections would take out the April 2024 low of 493.86.

Now one of the reasons that we don’t use this type of analysis on a daily basis, is because it can change on a daily basis..

I prefer using our method of setting price targets as they can remain consistent over time.

Using our current chart from the website, you can see that are next upside target was $531.25.

And you can also see the downside targets if and when the required.

We typically put more emphasis on targets that are both daily and weekly.

Here is our weekly chart from last Friday.

As you can see, Monday’s trading action took us down below $531.25, and back up to that level today.

Without new information contradicting this theory, I believe that the market had a major decline in the Monday’s low, and we had a normal retracement for the past two days which may have come to an end today.

Monday’s low has to be respected until it is broken, if it breaks then look for a significant move down to at least the April low.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading above fair value. So so far, it looks like the market wants to do some buying at the open on Wednesday morning. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning, just energy inventories coming out later in the morning.

Now, most stocks are trading higher in the pre market this morning. There is one that is not and that is Super Micro. It’s still on a sell signal, of course, was up slightly yesterday. It’s down in the premarket, trading down at the previous day’s low there. So our next mathematical target is 500.

If that low is taken out. Now, let’s split the presentation up this morning. We’ll start off looking at the us market, then we’ll look at the Canadian market, and we’ll finish off looking at the US most actives starting off looking at the VIX. The VIX came down hard yesterday. A close below 17.51 would give us a new sell signal on Wednesday and that would certainly turn US bullish on the stock market.

The VIX ETF’s pulled back yesterday, with the exception of the HUV in Toronto, which of course was playing catch up as the Canadian market was closed on Monday. Looking at the major us indices, a lot of gaps were filled yesterday. Looking at the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, all those gaps have now been filled. Looking at the financials, that gap was filled as well and looks like we’re holding support at 40.63. If that breaks, you can see our next targets to the downside.

But 40.63 comes in line with the lows from late May and into June. Looking at what’s working while consumer staples and utilities are still holding up fairly well, semiconductors had a nice recovery yesterday, closing right below the previous day’s high. So not a great recovery yesterday, but we are trading higher in the premarket this morning. Now moving on to the Canadian market and we had quite a recovery off of the intraday low yesterday, but still closing lower on the day for the TSX, the TSX 60 for mid caps, small caps. Unfortunately, micro caps didn’t have much of a recovery yesterday.

Then looking into the energy sector, slightly lower close yesterday after making a new low for this move. Move financials had a nice recovery off the low as well. We’ve got gold stocks back on a sell signal as of yesterday’s close. New low yesterday for base metals and of course, copper prices have been moving lower over the past few weeks. Industrials made a new low for this move as well, a new low for infotech.

No change in trend there. Of course. What’s still working, while telecom stocks made a new high for this move yesterday and utilities are still on a buy signal, so no change there. Now, if you’re not familiar with our service, one of the things that we provide is price target charts for every symbol in the database. So in this example, there was our buy signal, so you would have bought at the open the next day.

And of course here are the price targets. And you can see where we suggest that you would be taking money off the table on the way up so that when you ultimately get kicked out of a symbol, you’re not holding the bag. You have a limited number of shares left and have locked in profits already. Next up, let’s take a look at the TSX most actives from Tuesday’s trading action. Now, the Canadian market had a strange day yesterday.

It was trying to play catch up to the us market, which was down sharply on Monday and then came back yesterday afternoon. So you’ll see a lot of charts where we made a new low yesterday and then recovered nicely going into the close. Enbridge was the most actively traded stock yesterday, trading right up to the top of our projected trading range. There’s a nice bounce off a new low for Suncor. Suncor actually closing up $0.04 on the day. Tourmaline made a new low yesterday.

We saw a new low for this move for the TD Bank, gapping lower. We had a new low yesterday for Manulife, but it clawed its way back and just closed slightly lower on the day. There’s the Royal Bank closing at the high of the day even though we traded lower throughout the day. Nice reversal there yesterday for the Bank of Nova Scotia holding the lows from early July. Then we’ve got to CIBC.

Big recovery off $67 yesterday. We’re back on a sell signal for Kinross. We’re back on a sell signal for Barrick. And we had a new low yesterday for Shopify. And Shopify broke $75 yesterday.

62.50 would be our next target to the downside if we keep going from here. And then BCE made a new high for this move on Tuesday and our next target to the upside is 48.44. High of the day was 48 39. If we take that out, then $50 would be our next target to the upside for BCE. Let’s finish off today’s presentation.

Taking a look at the US most actives and we’ll use the same list that we use yesterday morning. There were a couple of changes, but just for continuity, we’ll use the same list. Now, as we go through this list, you’ll see that the market still has a lot of work to do. A lot of ugly charts here, some inside days, some gaps being filled, but there’s just a couple of charts that actually look pretty good. Nvidia is one of them.

Up the 3.78% yesterday trading up to the lower channel line. No joy for intel, closing lower on the day. Apple closed lower on the day. Had an inside day. You’re going to see a few inside days.

Inside days, of course are days of indecision. We had Ford with an inside day, closing slightly higher on the day. No joy for Tesla, closing slightly higher, having an inside day. Then we’ve got Amazon closing slightly higher yesterday. Nice big update for Palantir.

Gapping higher on news. We’re looking for a close on Wednesday above $27.10 to give us a buy signal there. There’s Bank of America filling a gap, closing slightly higher. No joy for AMD inside day, closing lower on the day. Sofi inside day, closing lower on the day and then Alphabet inside day closing lower on the day.

That was also true for NIO inside day, closing lower on the day. And then look at that, we’ve got snap closing slightly lower on the day. Then at and t still on a buy signal. No change there. Looking at Plug Power.

Still on a sell signal here. Closing slightly lower. Then we had marathon going up but closing above the previous day’s high. That could be bullish going forward. Inside day for American Airlines, no joy there.

Then nu moving up to try to fill that gap but couldn’t do it but did close above the previous day’s high. Similar situation for CleanSpark. Closing right at the previous day’s high. Trying to fill that gap. And we also tried to fill the gap for Robinhood, closing higher on the day.

No joy for Broadcom, but looking pretty healthy here. Trading into the channel. And then last up Microsoft. Microsoft filling that open gap and closing higher on the day. Closing right around where it opened.

It opened at $400 and closed at $399.61. So the pro is really not coming in to take it higher at the close. Now, last up this morning, Shopify is out with earnings and I see that it’s trading up at the 63 $64 level. So way up here. If it holds that going into the close, that would certainly be a new buy signal for Shopify.

Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. I think the excitement that we’re seeing over the last couple of days will probably end on Wednesday, and then we should see the market start to pull back on Thursday and Friday. Of course, if the VIX comes down and generates a sell signal, I will need to turn from being bearish to bullish going forward. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are pretty positive. Stock index futures are up across the board. They’re certainly not up enough to make up for yesterday’s losses.

But, you know, the market’s doing a little bargain hunting on Tuesday morning. That’s certainly not going to change the overall direction of the market. Now, the VIX spiked yesterday and the VXX closed the day up just under 40%. So congratulations if you were long the VXX or any of the VIX ETF’s. Now, we came into yesterday short the market along the Bear ETF.

So there’s not a lot of trend changes from Monday’s trading action. A lot of support was broken. You know, if we were looking to see if the late May lows were going to hold for the S&P 500, well, that was broken yesterday. You’re also going to see a lot of new gaps in the market. And of course, those could potentially act as resistance on the way back up.

That’s also true for the Nasdaq 100 breaking through those late May lows. There’s the Russell 2000, small caps, micro caps all hit hard yesterday. It was unfortunate. You know, the market last time gave it some love as money came out of those big cap tech stocks. This time around, money is leaving the market and going into the bond market.

And that’s pretty obvious right now. Semiconductors made a new low, breaking down below the low from way back here. We often talk about the fact that the market rises slower than it falls. It falls, you know, it rises as an escalator, falls as an elevator. And that’s certainly what’s happening right now.

There’s the financial sector and, you know, we looked at the fact that there was putting in a double top up here. We certainly didn’t know it was going to come down as aggressively as it did over the past couple of days, but that’s just what happens. Unfortunately, the energy sector broke down yesterday. You know, we were looking for potential support at these lows and that didn’t hold. The Canadian market was closed yesterday.

And so we are going to expect selling across the board in the Canadian market on Tuesday. And it’s not just because of the US. Markets around the world were down over the past couple of days. So unfortunately, the Canadian market’s going to have to play catch up now. It’s going to be a little less dramatic than it could have been because the US futures are trading higher this morning.

So yeah, it’s going to have a little bit of a buffer there this morning. Looking at the Leveraged ETF’s, I know a lot of people had orders filled yesterday. So congratulations. Being long the bear ETF for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, small caps semiconductors which were up but 4.66% yesterday at the end of the day, ran all the way up to $40 yesterday and reversed. Then we had the FANG ETF, which was up at the end of the day, just under twelve and a half percent.

We saw technology stocks up just under nine and a half percent at the close. Of course, more during the day. That’s why you want to have those orders in ahead of time, because, you know, just waiting for the close when you’re trying to take profits isn’t always going to get you the best price. Moving over to commodities, there wasn’t a good day for crude oil, was down on the day. Holding the lows from the late May, early June.

We’ve got new low for natural gas yesterday, new low for Copper. So if this is a global economic barometer, it’s not pointing in the right direction right now. Gold had a wild day yesterday, still on a buy signal, no change there. Unfortunately, Silver made a new low for this move and it’s a pretty bearish chart pattern. You had a high up here, lower high, you had lows.

Now we’re making lower lows. So now we are holding the low from back here in early May, but that may break over the next few days. Looking at the bond market and we don’t have to go through all of them, but you can see money has come out of the stock market, into the bond market over the past few days, and that has put downward pressure on bond yields. Previously this would have been bullish for the market, falling bond yields, putting downward pressure on interest rates. Typically that’s good for the stock market, but things have changed and you should never ask why.

It’s just what the market is doing and that’s what we have to deal with. We don’t have to deal with why something is happening, we just have to deal with the fact that it is happening now. There was not a lot of trend changes from Monday’s trading action. When we came into yesterday’s trading action, Nvidia was already on a sell signal. Now a lot of these big cap technology stocks clawed their way back from their intraday lows and we saw a couple actually close higher on the day.

There’s a new low for intel. No change in trend Apple is one of those stocks that clawed their way back, certainly didn’t close positive on the day and it’s still trading below the lower channel line and there’s an open gap to get filled there. But yeah, a lot of people did some shopping late in the day yesterday. There’s a new low for Ford. No change in trend there.

And then again, you know, there’s Tesla coming down to the 180 level and then coming right back to the $200 level. So nice $20 move off the low. There’s Amazon making a new low yesterday. And again, you know, recovering a lot of the losses going into the close. New low yesterday for Palantir.

Wow, all the way down. Hit our next price target at 21.88 and bounce. So if you were short palantir and you had an order, it got filled at 21.88. Congratulations. There’s a Bank of America making a new low for this move on Monday.

AMD closed higher on the day after making a new low. So some love for that stock. We need to close above $148.56 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. If of course, if that doesn’t happen on Tuesday, then that upper trend line is going to continue to move lower daily. So far, making a new low for this move.

Again, recovering, going to the close. Sofi is a crappy stock to trade. I hate when people ask me about it. I would just tell you to totally ignore the stock and pretend it doesn’t exist. Then looking at Alphabet.

New low for Alphabet. Coming down to the 155 level. New low for NIO. Yesterday we saw a new low for snap AT&T. Still holding up.

Still on a buy signal. That would change on Tuesday with a close below $18.86. And last time we went from sell signal to a buy signal, I told people to just ignore it. It’s, you know, you don’t want to be buying something up at that level. Plug Power made a new low for this move but then closed higher on the day.

Looking for a close on Tuesday above $2.53 to give us a buy signal there. Then looking at Marathon. A lot of love came back into this stock. Going into the close, it was only down 1.4% by the end of the day, just down $0.24. So a lot of love for that stock.

And then American Airlines. A new low for American Airlines. No change in trend there. Now meta traded through the lower channel line but did not close below it. So it’s still on a buy signal.

You know, I didn’t want people to chase it up last week and still not interested in buying meta at this time. And then Shopify traded down and again recovered a lot of its losses going into the close yesterday. So new low for Shopify on Monday. But yeah, there was some love going into the end of the day for Shopify. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

Congratulations. If you got some orders filled yesterday, no reason to go shopping for anything on Tuesday. You know, maybe the market wants to do a little shopping at the open today, but I’m not sure that’s going to be the start of anything new. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Hello everyone, it’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com . Well, we finished off a pretty profitable week. You could have been short big cap tech stocks or long the bear ETF’s, or long the VIX. Either way, it should have been a very profitable week for you. Starting off looking at the VIX, we can see that we generated a buy signal a few weeks ago and have moved up over the past couple of weeks on a weekly chart.

We’ve been on a weekly buy signal for the last three weeks. Now in this particular situation, we saw money leave big cap tech stocks and then go and move back into the market, but into small mid cap micro cap stocks over the past couple of weeks. So sometimes money just leaves the market altogether. In this example, in this particular situation, it moved into other areas of the market. Now, looking at a seasonality chart of the VIX, you can see it bottoms at the third week of July and then moves up into the first week of September, and then comes down and then moves up again into October.

So we are looking for the VIX to continue to move higher from here. That’s what it usually does on a seasonal basis. Whether that move has already finished, well, I’ll just have to wait and see. But there we are, bottoming in July and moving up sharply into August. Now if you were playing the bull ETF’s for the VIX, whether it was the VXX which was up over 24% on Friday, or in Toronto, the HUV which was up just under 24% on Friday, they’ve had really good moves over the past couple of weeks.

And what didn’t work well, semiconductors were the big losers on the week, being led lower by intel. So we’ve been on sell signals for a week now. Weeks now. You could have been short either one of those or of course long the bear ETF’s, and we’ll take a look at those in a second. Now, looking at semiconductors, they’re on a second week of a sell signal.

Here on the daily chart you can see the SMH has come down to the 200 day moving average and stopped on a dime on Friday, and we’re looking to see if that breaks this week. Then, looking at the Magnificent Seven ETF itself, it made a new low for this move, trying to hold $42 and the hundred day moving average. Now we are on its first weekly sell signal here. This particular ETF does not have enough historical data to make a full chart, so we don’t have all of the indicators working because of the lack of historical data, but we do know we’re on our first weekly sell signal as of Friday’s close. Now, some people, of course, could be long.

The bear ETF’s and looking at the triples for the semiconductors were up nearly 17% on Friday alone. Looking at the triples for the Nasdaq 100, we were up over 7% on Friday. And of course we’ve been on buy signals for several weeks now. There’s also the Bear Fang ETF, which was up over 8%, nearly 9% on Friday alone. Now, looking at the individual stocks in the magnificent seven, we call it the Magnificent Eight because we also add Shopify to this list.

Apple still holding up fairly well. It’s still on a sell signal here. Things would change on Monday with a close above $223.90. Now, I don’t usually care about the news at all or, you know, product announcements or analysis on individual stocks. I just look at charts.

But I thought this was rather interesting and I don’t know how it’s going to affect Apple stock going forward, but Warren Buffett unloads half of its position in Apple over the last little while. So that’s probably not good for Apple stock going forward. But only time will tell. If we get a close above $223.90 on Monday, that is a new buy signal no matter what the news is. Now, Amazon traded above the upper channel line on both Wednesday and Thursday and came down hard on Friday.

So no change in trend at all this week. There is Alphabet trying to hold the recent lows going into Monday’s trading action. Now, Meta was interesting. It popped on Wednesday and we talked about the fact that we don’t care about how stocks open, we only care about how they close. So we opened up here and closed down here.

Now that is bearish because the only time the public really has an effect on the market is at the open. And the pros are the ones who close the market at the end of the day. So to see it open up there and close down there is pretty bearish. And then once again, we did that again on Friday. We opened at 489 and we closed at 488.14.

So the pro is not as enthusiastic as the public when it comes to this particular stock. I would have closed off a short position if I had it, but I certainly wouldn’t be chasing Meta up at these levels on Monday. We’re looking for a close below $470.27 to give us a new sell signal for meta on Monday. There’s the bearish reversal signal from Thursday’s trading action. Last time we had that was back at the early part of July marking the high.

And then we had bearish reversal signals back here in April, also marking the high for that move. So yeah, Apple met a pop the other day, but really no reason to chase it at this time. Now, Microsoft made a new move lower on Friday and it’s trying to hold support here from back in late May. If that breaks, of course, then we’re going to be looking for a move down to these lows over the next week or two. Then, looking at Nvidia, it did Pretty Good on Friday.

It made a new Low and then ate up most of those losses. So it opened lower and closed higher than it opened. So that is a bullish sign, but certainly there’s no change in trend here. We’ll be looking to see if they can continue moving it up on Monday. We need to close above $118.37 to give us a buy signal on Monday.

Not expecting that to happen on Monday. New low for Shopify. And of course we were looking to see if the lows from back in May would hold. And we drove right through them. So those lows did not hold on both sides of the border.

Last up is Tesla. And Tesla made a new Low for this Move on Friday. And so we did trade into the channel on a couple of days this week, but unfortunately, we did not get a Buy signal for Tesla. Now, looking at the canadian market, of course, we’ve got the 2X bear for the Nasdaq. It was up nicely on Friday, up a little over 5% on the day.

When we got a buy signal a couple of weeks ago, there was the buy signal. So you bought at the open on the next day, which was 11.65. Looking up from that point, your first price target was 12.50. We hit that next price target, 13.28, we hit that. Our next price target is 14.06.

So when you see something that’s just a little higher than a big round number, and in this case $14 is a big round number for this symbol, I put an order in at 13.99 because 14 is going to act as psychological resistance. So now, at that point, you don’t have a lot of shares left and you have no reason to completely liquidate a position. If we get up to 13.99 and we haven’t got there yet. So we’re just theorizing here now. Certainly the market could roll over and crash.

From where we are right now, anything is possible, but statistically, the market is more in tune with hitting singles and doubles than it is hitting home runs. Yeah, we could certainly see the market continue to move lower from here, and we could see our bear ETF’s run up to the highs from back in April. But statistically, that’s not likely to happen. So I encourage people to sell into strength, and in this case, that’s your bear ETF’s your VIX. ETF’s moving up.

You should be taking profits along the way. Yeah, we could hit a home run, and that would be great. So I never want you to completely liquidate a position. You should always have a partial position left. So, yeah, we can have some fun if we do hit a home run.

Okay, folks, that’s all for today’s presentation. Thank you very much for your time and attention. And next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Sunday, August 4, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it looks like it’s going to be a very happy Friday. For those of you who are short or long the Bear ETF’s today. We’ve got stock index futures trading down sharply across the board.

That could change at 8:30 with employment numbers coming out, but I highly doubt it. There’s some stocks getting really hurt this morning and they’re pulling down the major indices. We’re going to be closed on Monday. Canadian markets are closed. We’re going to take the day off.

It’s summer. I’m not sure what our schedule is going to be. We’ll probably do a site update on maybe Tuesday morning. But next time you’ll hear my voice in the pre market is going to be on Wednesday morning and I will do a short video over the weekend. Now, I said I was going to talk about commodities this morning, but things have changed.

The market changed yesterday, it changed overnight. And so we’ll just cover the basics here. Crude oil is still on a sell signal. It’s trading slightly higher in the premarket this morning. Natural gas still on a sell signal.

Gold still on a buy signal. It’s trading higher this morning. Silver still on a sell signal. It may end Friday on a buy signal. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Now, semiconductors were once again the big losers yesterday that pulled the market down. Now we talked about advanced micro devices the other day it popped and traded up to the upper channel line, but did not close above it. And then yesterday it fell apart and has made a new low. So we had a lot of new lows for this move. Anytime I say new low and don’t say 52 week or all time, I’m just talking about the particular move in the market.

And right now Advanced Micro Devices is making a new low for this move. Now, today or yesterday we were talking about Meta and meta popped and completely reversed by the end of the day. So we ended the day. It was a bearish reversal day for Meta. Last time that happened was right here and then previously it happened over here.

So that marked the top. And you can see what happened yesterday with the public pushing the market up and the pre market and then down going into the close. The pros really did not take advantage of that. So we’re not looking for anything long term here for meta at the moment. So we opened up there and we closed way down there.

So if you were short meta, you need to cover your short position this morning, not yesterday morning. Remember, we’re looking for the first close above the upper channel line, and the open yesterday was irrelevant. It’s all about how we close. We closed above the upper channel line. If you’re still short Meta, you want to cover those positions this morning.

Now we are trading lower in the pre market. Any number that I give you in the pre market is going to change by the time you see this video. But right now we’re still trading lower. So that’s better for you if you have to cover a short position. Am I going to go long Meta right now?

No, I’m not going to go long Meta. I’ll sit on my hands and wait until the market turns around before I’m going to jump into Meta. I think it’s a very temporary thing. I think it was mostly short covering, and I think Meta will probably continue to drift lower over the next few days. Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a buy signal.

That’s negative for stocks. Things would change on Friday if we closed below 15.17. But from what we’re seeing in the pre market this morning, that’s not likely to happen now. For the Canadian market, the TSX made a new high on Wednesday, reversed on Thursday, and we’ll probably get a sell signal on Friday with a close below 34.34 for the iShares for the TSX 60. Now, you have had lots of opportunities to lock in profits along the way, and if you still have a position, it should be a very small position in the iShares for the TSX 60.

So still no joy for the SPY. We’re still either short the SPY or long the bear. ETF. Similar situation for the Nasdaq 100. We’re still short the Nasdaq or long the bear you choose, but that’s where you should be at the moment. Now, the Magnificent Seven is still on a sell signal.

It opened and traded above the upper channel line yesterday before pulling back, closing below the lower channel line once again. There’s only one stock in this group on a buy signal right now, and that is meta. Apple is trading higher. This morning it was down $3.70. It’s up a dollar and change this morning.

So that’s not going to give us a buy signal. There’s Amazon. Amazon is down hard in the pre market this morning. So for the last two days, we’ve been able to trade above the upper trend line, but we have not closed above it. So here we are coming down hard on Friday morning.

Then looking at Alphabet no change in trend there. No change in trend for micro or Nvidia. Nvidia traded up to the upper channel line but came down hard going into the close. Probably a new low on Friday. Certainly a new low for this move for Shopify on both sides of the border.

And then there’s Tesla holding the recent lows, but those are probably going to break on Friday morning. Now, Intel’s in the news this morning and if you’ve been around for any length of time, you know, I don’t like this stock. They missed the cell phone revolution, they missed the AI revolution. And we were expecting it to be able to hold the lows from the last couple of months here, but those broke yesterday and now we’re trading way down here in the pre market and intel is a Dow 30 stock. So that’s pulling down the Dow in the pre market.

It’s a chip stock and the chips were hit hard yesterday and they’re going to continue to get hit hard this morning. TEAM is sharply lowered down at the 140 level. So no change in trend for that stock. No change in trend for a Snap. Trading down close to $10 this morning.

So, you know, if you’re short, Snap, you know, take some money off the table at the open this morning. Why not? Why not enjoy the weekend with some locked in profits? Now, looking at ARK, there’s only one ETF that anyone’s interested in at the moment. If you’re long the bear ETF for Ark, no problem.

You’re probably going to see it spike sharply higher once again on Friday. Nobody wants the Fintech. The Genomics is the only one anyone’s interested in right now. It’s coming into Friday on a buy signal. That would change on Friday with a close below $25.99.

There’s the Innovation ETF being hit hard yesterday. It’ll probably take out the May low today. We’ve got the Industrial ETF making a new low for this move. It was trying to hold the recent lows here, but those are going to break on Friday morning and then look at the Internet ETF, new low for this move and a new low for this move for the Space ETF. Now looking at the Canadian market.

So we’ve already looked at Shopify after that. It’s Constellation software. We’re back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. So that’s new CGI holding most of its gains coming into Friday. Inside day on Thursday for CGI, no joy for BlackBerry.

We’re still on a sell signal, still on a sell signal. For Bitfarms. Still on a sell signal for Celestica and still on a sell signal for Hut 8. So no change in trend there. Kinaxis came down hard yesterday.

You know, it was down what, 9% yesterday? That’s a big move down. You’ve had lots of opportunities to take money off the table on the way up. So if you’ve got any shares left, which I hope you do, you should never completely liquidate a position, but you should only have a few shares left of this stock then. Open Text last chart this morning Open Text back on a sell signal.

As of Thursday’s close, we needed a close below 42.63. We closed at 42.27. And with what’s happening in the tech sector this morning, you have no reason to continue to hold open text okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Fear is still rising. That’s usually negative for stocks.

How it manifests, what sectors it takes out. Most of the time it takes out the whole market. But this time around it really focused on big cap tech stocks and money didn’t come out of the market. It actually went into other areas of the market. But it looks like everybody’s going to get hit on Friday.

Have a wonderful Friday. Have a wonderful weekend. If you’re north of the border, have a wonderful long weekend and I will speak to you over the weekend if you’re a member for non members. Next time I’ll be back for a pre market video. Will probably be Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, August 2, 2024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading above fair value. So so far it looks like the market wants to continue on its buying spree. We do have some employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.

That could certainly change the direction of the market. Let’s start off with a little recap of what happened in July. The S&P 500 was up 1.21% on the month. Remember, we’re taking profits at 562.50. For the Nasdaq 100 we were down 1.68% on the month and we took profits at 500.

Looking at the Russell 2000, we were up over 10% on the month and taking profits at 225. We closed at 223.86 yesterday. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX, 60 were up over 6%, trading through the 34 38 level. Then looking at what really worked. It was the Regional Banks were up over 18% in the US.

Then Home Builders were up nearly 17% on the month. In the Canadian market it was gold stocks that were up nearly 14% on the month. What didn’t work well, the big loser was Semiconductors, down over 5%. Big outside reversal month, semiconductors. And then we had Global Base Metals down on the TSX, down a little over 2% for the month.

Now some of those losses that we saw in the technology sector in July may be erased. This morning we’ve got Meta out with earnings and it’s gapping sharply higher in the pre market. We also have Nvidia trading higher this morning. It was up nearly 13% yesterday. Not enough to give us a buy signal.

That could happen on Thursday. But at the same time Advanced Micro Devices was the story of the day. Yesterday it traded up to the upper channel line during the day and then closed below the lower channel line. So what happens in the pre market is not really reality. We’re looking to see how the market closes at the end of the day.

Now, yesterday morning we knew Microsoft was going to open lower and it opened lower, closed lower, down a little over 1%. Making a new low for this move. Pinterest was sharply lower yesterday, down over 14%, heading back towards the low from back in May. Now the VIX is still on a buy signal here, so options traders are not overly convinced at the moment, looking for a close below 14.95 to change things on Thursday. The dow traded higher yesterday, lost a lot of its gains going into the close.

The SPY traded up. Looks like it filled that open gap and close just below the upper channel line. We’re looking for a close above $552.02 on Thursday to give us a buy signal. Looking at the equal weighted S&P 500, we made a new high yesterday before pulling back and closing lower than we opened and there was a lot of that yesterday. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, it’s trading up to the bottom of that open gap and looking for a close on Thursday above $476.39.

Looking at the Russell 2000, we certainly punched through 225 yesterday and then closed just right about where we opened on the day. And there we are. We traded above the 225 level, looking to see if we can take it out. If we can, then 231.25 comes into play.

Looking at small cap stocks, they gave up a lot of their gains going into the close. We actually closed lower than we opened and then looking at micro caps. Micro caps traded up to the previous high once again and then pulled back. They’re all still on buy signals here, but this is what happens at the top of a market, not the bottom. And here we are.

Home builders. We talked about Home Builders on Tuesday. They basically closed unchanged yesterday after running up, making a new high. Similar situation for the Real Estate sector, actually closing lower on the day after making a new high and then looking at financials. Financials traded up to the previous high yesterday and then pulled back, closing slightly lower on the day.

We also saw Insurance stocks make a new high and then close slightly lower on the day. Next up, let’s take a look at the Canadian market. And there’s the iShares for the TSX 60 making a new all time high on Wednesday. Led higher by the Energy sector, which gapped higher yesterday. Of course, there’s a some mideast tension going on right now that’s put a bid into crude oil.

Then looking at Canadian Natural Resources, it’s back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Looking at the information technology sector, it is now back on a buy signal, being led higher by CGI, which was up over 4% on the day. Then looking at gold stocks, they’re back on a buy signal. Being led higher by Agnico Eagle, making a new high for this move. Then looking at the financials.

They also made a new high on Wednesday, being led higher by Intact Insurance, which gave up a lot of its gains going into the close. But if you had some orders in up there, congratulations. That was a good day to be long intact. Now some stocks I’m watching Shopify traded into the channel yesterday looking for a close on Thursday above 86.64 to give us a buy signal. The Royal Bank made a new high yesterday for this move.

So still trading above the upper channel line there. That is good for the financial sector. National Bank has come up to our next price targets. Almost filled that open gap, but stuck here at the 115.63 level. Then looking at metro Metro closing just above the upper channel line, a close below 81.01 on Thursday would give us a sell signal for Metro.

New high for hydro one on Wednesday and a new high for Cypher Pharmaceuticals. Making a new high for this move. That’s quite a run over the past couple of weeks. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wednesday’s market action was the high for this particular move.

We are trading up in the pre market this morning. That doesn’t necessarily mean we’re going to close higher, but yeah, we saw a lot of reversals yesterday. So money moved back into technology and moved out of the rest of the market on Wednesday. Not enough to give us sell signals in the rest of the market just yet, but we’ll have to see if that trend continues. The trend in which money goes into a few stocks and comes out of a lot of stocks now.

We’ll be back on Friday morning. On Friday morning we’ll take a closer look at the world of commodities. Enjoy the rest of your day. And again, next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, August 1, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. in the premarket this morning, everybody seems to be happy. Stock index futures and commodities are trading higher. Crude oil is up over $2.

So that is some global tension there in the crude oil market. We do have a lot of economic numbers coming out this morning, nothing that’s probably going to shift the market too much. Then we’ve got energy inventories later in the morning. And then of course, today is Fed day and so expect volatility to expand after 02:00 p.m. this afternoon we’re seeing a lot of money go into areas of the market that would benefit from a rate cut.

It could be a buy the rumor, sell the news type situation. So we’ll just have to wait and see. The Canadian central bank has cut a couple of times already and we’re waiting for the us market to catch up. And that may happen today in the pre market this morning, lots of buying going on. Advanced Micro Devices is doing well, but it’s not enough to give us a buy signal.

So currently we’re trading up in the channel and let’s see if that holds throughout the day. Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal. When the VIX is elevated, that means you should be looking for a lot of gaps in the market. And we’re certainly seeing that from Tuesday’s trading action. Things would change for the VIX on Wednesday if it were to close below 14.69.

Now, the chip sector was the big loser on Tuesday, and that is a new low for the chip sector. We also saw a new low for the Nasdaq 100. So both of those are trading higher. Looking at the queues in the pre market, we were down $6.37 yesterday. We were up $6 and change this morning.

So we’re not going to change the overall direction of the NASDAQ based on what’s happening in the pre market. But things could certainly change this afternoon. Now, PayPal was the big winner. That’s one of those gaps I was talking about. So PayPal, big winner on the Nasdaq 100 followed by Warner Brothers.

And then the big loser was Crowdstrike to making a new low for this move. We’ve also got Nvidia making a new low. It is trading higher in the pre market this morning. Qualcomm also making a new low on Tuesday. No change in trend there.

Now the Dow is still holding up. That was the travelers group, followed by Goldman Sachs and then JP Morgan led the Dow higher. Now, what didn’t work yesterday? Well, Merck was the big loser, down nearly 10% on the day we saw Procter and Gamble gapped lower, down nearly 5%. Intel making a new low for this move, trying to hold those lows from a couple of months ago. Then Microsoft. Microsoft was down on the day, down $3.81 is down $15 or so in the pre market. And it was lower than that right after the earnings came out last night.

So looking for a new low for Microsoft for this move. Now moving on to the S&P 500, still holding the recent low. Hormett Aerospace, a stock I’ve never looked at before, gapped higher. A big winner on the S&P 500 yesterday, followed by F5 Networks, followed by Stanley Black and Decker gapping higher as well. What didn’t work yesterday, Echolabs was down on the day nearly 8%.

We saw Corning down on the day nearly 7%. And a big reversal from the low of the day, but certainly no reason to buy corning on Wednesday. Looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, it was an inside day on Tuesday. Still looking for a breakout above 225. Some of the interest sensitive areas of the market put in new highs yesterday, including homebuilders, real estate and insurance companies.

So with the VIX elevated, we saw a lot of gaps in the market on Tuesday. Now moving on to the Canadian market. The TSX is holding up fairly well without really the help of the commodity sectors, but it’s going to get some help from those today. We’ve got gold and crude oil trading higher in the premarket this morning. Now, what’s working?

Well, there’s Consumer Staples making a new closing high on Tuesday. New high for the Financials. We’ve got Income Trusts moving up yesterday. We’ve got the real estate sector holding up. It was up a penny on the day, still trading above 325.

We’ve had a nice run for Telecom stocks over the last few weeks. We’ve got the utility sector making a new high on Tuesday. All of that’s working well on the TSX 60. It was. Brookfield Asset Management was the big winner on the day, followed by the TD Bank.

We’ve got Hydro One, we’ve got Emira, and we’ve got Enbridge. All moving up. These are all interest rate sensitive stocks. There’s Intact. Insurance was the big winner in the insurance sector.

We’ve got Bank in Nova Scotia back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close, joining most of the other banks. And we’ve got one that we’ll take a look at in a minute. But there’s the Royal Bank making a new high on Tuesday. There’s the CIBC making a new high on Tuesday. Sun Life was up on the day.

Still on a buy signal. No change there. On the TSX composite, it was. Silo was the big winner. It was up nearly 9% on the day.

Already on a buy signal. No change in trend there. No change in trend for Secure Energy Services. It was up over 7% on the day. What didn’t work on Tuesday?

Well, it was the Bank of Montreal rolling over. It was down over five, or nearly five and a half percent on the day, trading right back to the lows from a couple of weeks ago. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Should be a wild day. Not sure how many trend changes we’re going to see today, but we are going to see a lot of volatility this afternoon after 02:00 p.m.

you have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are slightly above fair value. Commodities are mixed with crude oil down, while gold is slightly higher on Tuesday morning. Now, we don’t have a lot of economic numbers coming out. We’ve got a jolts number, employment number coming out at 10:00 a.m. and of course, this is the first day of the Fed meeting. Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal, still trading above the upper channel line. Things would change on Tuesday if it were to close below 14.34. Not expecting that to happen. And of course, most of that hedging has to do with the magnificent seven stocks. They are still on a sell signal. They have creeped up over the past couple of days, but still trading below the lower channel line. The Dow had an inside day. The S&P 500 had an inside day. So it was really a pause day yesterday ahead of that Fed meeting. The NASDAQ closed slightly higher on the day. No change there. The Russell 2000 pulled back yesterday after trying to break out above 225.

Once again, no change for small caps. No change for micro caps. Again. Trying to make a new high here. We did yesterday, but reversed and closed below the previous day’s low. So no joy there. Then. Looking at banks.

Banks made a new high yesterday.

We saw a new high for regional banks, in both cases pulling back into the close, closing below the previous day’s low. So that could turn out to be a top for the banking sector. But we need more evidence. And we’re still closing above the upper channel line. A new high yesterday for insurance companies, a new high for broker dealers on Friday before pulling back. Now, we closed in the channel yesterday, so possibility of a sell signal on Tuesday with a close below $121.90. Then looking at pharmaceuticals, we’re putting in a double top here. We’ve had lots of opportunities to take money off the table along the way. So still no sell signal, but possibly a top for pharmaceuticals. Tesla moved up yesterday, got everybody excited. Closing right at the lower channel line. So a close above $242.98 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday. Still no joy for Crowdstrike. I was asked yesterday about Akamai. Akamai is coming up to potential resistance. And it reversed yesterday. Still closing above the upper channel line. So on one side, looking for a close on Tuesday below $95.05 to give us a sell signal.

And I would have an order in there just below dollar 100 to take some money off the table. We are coming up towards the top of the open gap, and the market might want to fill that before pulling back, but we’ll just have to wait and see. There’s no, you know, rules here written in stone. You know, both a price major price target and a big round number is a potential area of resistance. And you can see we use that as support previously. And then, of course, the top of the open gap is another potential area of resistance. You say resistance, some people say a price magnet. You know, it could work out either way. We’ll just have to wait and see. Now moving on to the Canadian market, and things aren’t looking well for the Canadian dollar right now. Making a new low yesterday. So exporters love this situation. Importers hate it. It has a lot to do with commodity prices, with crude oil and natural gas both making new lows yesterday. Copper made a new low on Thursday, closed slightly lower yesterday. We’ve got gold on a sell signal, silver on a sell signal.

So that’s not helping the commodity sector. But when you look at the TSX, it’s still holding up fairly well right now. That has a lot to do with consumer staples, financials. We’ve got the income trust making a new high for this move on Monday. Coming up to pretty close to the highs from back in May. Then looking at real estate stocks, they had a quiet day yesterday after making.

A new high on Friday. A new high for this move for telecom stocks. They’re heading up towards those highs from back in May. Then we’ve got utilities having a quiet day yesterday.

Inside day for utilities on Monday. Now the Royal Bank is still closing above 150. We’re looking for a close on Tuesday below 151.35. We had a new high yesterday for CIBC. We see Sun Life still on a buy signal here. Trading in the channel yesterday. A closed below 68.22 on Tuesday would give us a sell signal.

New high yesterday for Fortis, new high yesterday for Circle K, new high yesterday for Brookfield and new high for Cineplex. Obviously, the big movie that’s out now did fairly well on the weekend. Then we’ve got Hydro One making a new high on Friday, small pullback on Monday. And similar situation for First Service. Making a new high on Friday, a small pullback on Monday. Certainly no change in trend there. I think this is quite an unusual situation in which the Canadian stock market can be up making new highs without the commodity sector pushing the market higher. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, July 30, 2024