Hello everyone, it’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com . Well, we finished off a pretty profitable week. You could have been short big cap tech stocks or long the bear ETF’s, or long the VIX. Either way, it should have been a very profitable week for you. Starting off looking at the VIX, we can see that we generated a buy signal a few weeks ago and have moved up over the past couple of weeks on a weekly chart.
We’ve been on a weekly buy signal for the last three weeks. Now in this particular situation, we saw money leave big cap tech stocks and then go and move back into the market, but into small mid cap micro cap stocks over the past couple of weeks. So sometimes money just leaves the market altogether. In this example, in this particular situation, it moved into other areas of the market. Now, looking at a seasonality chart of the VIX, you can see it bottoms at the third week of July and then moves up into the first week of September, and then comes down and then moves up again into October.
So we are looking for the VIX to continue to move higher from here. That’s what it usually does on a seasonal basis. Whether that move has already finished, well, I’ll just have to wait and see. But there we are, bottoming in July and moving up sharply into August. Now if you were playing the bull ETF’s for the VIX, whether it was the VXX which was up over 24% on Friday, or in Toronto, the HUV which was up just under 24% on Friday, they’ve had really good moves over the past couple of weeks.
And what didn’t work well, semiconductors were the big losers on the week, being led lower by intel. So we’ve been on sell signals for a week now. Weeks now. You could have been short either one of those or of course long the bear ETF’s, and we’ll take a look at those in a second. Now, looking at semiconductors, they’re on a second week of a sell signal.
Here on the daily chart you can see the SMH has come down to the 200 day moving average and stopped on a dime on Friday, and we’re looking to see if that breaks this week. Then, looking at the Magnificent Seven ETF itself, it made a new low for this move, trying to hold $42 and the hundred day moving average. Now we are on its first weekly sell signal here. This particular ETF does not have enough historical data to make a full chart, so we don’t have all of the indicators working because of the lack of historical data, but we do know we’re on our first weekly sell signal as of Friday’s close. Now, some people, of course, could be long.
The bear ETF’s and looking at the triples for the semiconductors were up nearly 17% on Friday alone. Looking at the triples for the Nasdaq 100, we were up over 7% on Friday. And of course we’ve been on buy signals for several weeks now. There’s also the Bear Fang ETF, which was up over 8%, nearly 9% on Friday alone. Now, looking at the individual stocks in the magnificent seven, we call it the Magnificent Eight because we also add Shopify to this list.
Apple still holding up fairly well. It’s still on a sell signal here. Things would change on Monday with a close above $223.90. Now, I don’t usually care about the news at all or, you know, product announcements or analysis on individual stocks. I just look at charts.
But I thought this was rather interesting and I don’t know how it’s going to affect Apple stock going forward, but Warren Buffett unloads half of its position in Apple over the last little while. So that’s probably not good for Apple stock going forward. But only time will tell. If we get a close above $223.90 on Monday, that is a new buy signal no matter what the news is. Now, Amazon traded above the upper channel line on both Wednesday and Thursday and came down hard on Friday.
So no change in trend at all this week. There is Alphabet trying to hold the recent lows going into Monday’s trading action. Now, Meta was interesting. It popped on Wednesday and we talked about the fact that we don’t care about how stocks open, we only care about how they close. So we opened up here and closed down here.
Now that is bearish because the only time the public really has an effect on the market is at the open. And the pros are the ones who close the market at the end of the day. So to see it open up there and close down there is pretty bearish. And then once again, we did that again on Friday. We opened at 489 and we closed at 488.14.
So the pro is not as enthusiastic as the public when it comes to this particular stock. I would have closed off a short position if I had it, but I certainly wouldn’t be chasing Meta up at these levels on Monday. We’re looking for a close below $470.27 to give us a new sell signal for meta on Monday. There’s the bearish reversal signal from Thursday’s trading action. Last time we had that was back at the early part of July marking the high.
And then we had bearish reversal signals back here in April, also marking the high for that move. So yeah, Apple met a pop the other day, but really no reason to chase it at this time. Now, Microsoft made a new move lower on Friday and it’s trying to hold support here from back in late May. If that breaks, of course, then we’re going to be looking for a move down to these lows over the next week or two. Then, looking at Nvidia, it did Pretty Good on Friday.
It made a new Low and then ate up most of those losses. So it opened lower and closed higher than it opened. So that is a bullish sign, but certainly there’s no change in trend here. We’ll be looking to see if they can continue moving it up on Monday. We need to close above $118.37 to give us a buy signal on Monday.
Not expecting that to happen on Monday. New low for Shopify. And of course we were looking to see if the lows from back in May would hold. And we drove right through them. So those lows did not hold on both sides of the border.
Last up is Tesla. And Tesla made a new Low for this Move on Friday. And so we did trade into the channel on a couple of days this week, but unfortunately, we did not get a Buy signal for Tesla. Now, looking at the canadian market, of course, we’ve got the 2X bear for the Nasdaq. It was up nicely on Friday, up a little over 5% on the day.
When we got a buy signal a couple of weeks ago, there was the buy signal. So you bought at the open on the next day, which was 11.65. Looking up from that point, your first price target was 12.50. We hit that next price target, 13.28, we hit that. Our next price target is 14.06.
So when you see something that’s just a little higher than a big round number, and in this case $14 is a big round number for this symbol, I put an order in at 13.99 because 14 is going to act as psychological resistance. So now, at that point, you don’t have a lot of shares left and you have no reason to completely liquidate a position. If we get up to 13.99 and we haven’t got there yet. So we’re just theorizing here now. Certainly the market could roll over and crash.
From where we are right now, anything is possible, but statistically, the market is more in tune with hitting singles and doubles than it is hitting home runs. Yeah, we could certainly see the market continue to move lower from here, and we could see our bear ETF’s run up to the highs from back in April. But statistically, that’s not likely to happen. So I encourage people to sell into strength, and in this case, that’s your bear ETF’s your VIX. ETF’s moving up.
You should be taking profits along the way. Yeah, we could hit a home run, and that would be great. So I never want you to completely liquidate a position. You should always have a partial position left. So, yeah, we can have some fun if we do hit a home run.
Okay, folks, that’s all for today’s presentation. Thank you very much for your time and attention. And next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Sunday, August 4, 2024
