In today’s market update, Stephen Whiteside from TheUpTrend.com notes that the pre-market is relatively quiet, with stock index futures trading above fair value. Initial jobless claims are expected at 8:30 AM, which could influence market sentiment. The 30-year bond closed higher, while bond yields declined, suggesting a risk-on environment as money flows into higher-risk bond markets. Major indices like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 showed slight gains, with the Nasdaq nearing a key resistance level. Sectors like consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate performed well, while financials and energy showed weakness. Bitcoin returned to a buy signal, whereas Ethereum remained on a sell signal.
In Canada, the market saw a quiet trading day, with the TSX 60 and Vanguard Canada ETFs showing little movement. Energy stocks like Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor are on the brink of sell signals, while TD Bank is expected to report disappointing earnings. Among commodities, crude oil continued its decline, and precious metals like gold and silver showed mixed performance. The update concludes with an overview of the most active stocks, including Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir, highlighting that most remained on buy signals despite minor pullbacks.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are currently trading above fair value. While commodities are flat. Target is out with earnings this morning, it is currently trading higher in the premarket. So congratulations to anyone who is long Target.
Now, we do have the FOMC minutes coming out later this afternoon. This morning, nothing in the pre market, but later in the morning we’re going to get employment number revisions, so that could certainly change the direction of the market. Now, the VIX is still on a sell signal, settled down quite a bit this week and looking for a close on Wednesday above 21 .28 to change things for the market. The Dow closed down slightly yesterday. We’re up at the top of the range right now and our next target is 410.16.
It’d be interesting to watch. We put in a high back here, then a lower high. We haven’t put in a lower high yet, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Currently, it looks like we are going to open higher on Wednesday morning. Now, looking at the SPY, we look at the spy, it is unleveraged.
And of course there’s a 2X, there’s a 3X, there’s a 4X for this. I don’t mention them every day. They generally are going to look basically the same. Of course the channel lines are going to be different and the price targets are going to be different, but they’re all generally going to move in the same direction. So I really don’t have to mention them every day.
If we’re long the spy, more than likely 99% chance we’re going to be long. The leveraged ETF’s as well. So, you know, I really don’t have to mention them every single day, but I am. They are certainly there in my mind and in my account. So there we are, hitting a price target for the 4X ETF.
If you’re long, that that was a place where you should be taking money off the table, at least 50% of your position. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, pretty quiet day yesterday. Still trying to get to 484.38. That is our next target to the upside for the Nasdaq 100. Looking at the Russell 2000, we filled the gap, pulled back what was previously resistance is now acting as support.
The 212 50 level and we’re still closing just above that. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, you can see we made a new high on Monday, pulled back on Tuesday, that had a lot to do with the energy sector. 3516 is not only a daily target, but a weekly target. And of course, those weekly targets are much more important than the individual daily targets. Looking at the cryptos, we’ve got Bitcoin and Ethereum still on sell signals.
No change in trend there. Looking at commodities and starting off with crude oil, it was down yesterday. And of course, gasoline was already on a sell signal, making a new low for this move on Tuesday. And of course that is good for consumers. Looking at natural gas, we’re still on a buy signal here.
No change in trend. New high for gold on Tuesday. We’re still stuck to 231.25. We haven’t broken away from that just yet. If we can continue to move higher here, then 237.50 is our next target.
While gold is moving up, we’ve got the US dollar moving down. So if there’s a change in direction for the US dollar, I would assume there’s going to be a change in direction for the price of gold. Looking at palladium, no change there. Looking at platinum, still on a buy signal, and there’s a silver moving up. That gap has now been filled.
We filled the gap and pulled back, still closing higher on the day, so no major damage done there. Next up, let’s take a look at the TSX. Most actives from Tuesday’s trading action. And this list, of course, is heavily weighted in commodity related stocks. What’s unusual here is we’ve got a couple of insurance companies this week and that doesn’t happen very often.
Of course, we often see Manulife in the top ten list. Looking at Canadian ,atural Resources, we’re looking for a close below $47.37 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. $50 is still acting as resistance. Then looking at Manulife, closing just above the upper channel line. No change in trend there.
No change in trend. For Enbridge, we’re looking for a close on Wednesday below $52.78. There’s a new high for Great West Life, up at the highs from back in May. Then we’ve got Suncor coming down to the lower channel line. So sitting right on the lower channel line, any lower close on Wednesday would give us a sell signal.
There’s a new high for Barrick yesterday, hitting our next price target and pulling back. So legally it is a bearish reversal day, but we actually continue to close higher on the day and we did not close below the previous day’s low. So, yeah, it’s a bearish reversal day, but very, very weak version of that signal. Then looking at Cenovus. We’ve got Cenovus back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Osisko Mining
Osisko Mining just treading water up here. It’s of course is being taken out. Then we’ve got Tamarack trading back into the channel yesterday, looking for a close on Wednesday below $3.91 410 still acting as resistance. Then we’ve got Baytex trading down to the lower channel line, looking for a close on Wednesday below $4.72. And then I just wanted to show Shopify.
Shopify has not filled the gap on the Canadian chart, but it has on the US chart and landed on a big round number, $75, and has been trading sideways for the past couple of days. So that might be all for Shopify at this time, but certainly nobody’s in a hurry to continue to buy or to start to sell at this time. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, looking at the US most actives from Tuesday’s trading action. Of course, this list is heavily weighted in technology stocks. We do have one bank, one credit services company, a couple of stocks not doing well.
Intel, NIO, and we’ve got Marathon all down at the bottom of the range. Starting off with Nvidia. Fairly quiet day yesterday. Inside day for Nvidia. For Intel, we’re looking for a close above $21.54 on Wednesday.
Not a stock I would go after. Advanced Micro Devices. Pulling back yesterday after making a new high. A new high for this move for Tesla. No change in trend there for Nio, we’re looking for a close on Wednesday below $3.82.
Then looking at Bank of America, we’re looking for a close below $38.46. No change in trend for Palantir. Then we’re looking at Sofi. Sofi pulling back slightly yesterday. Again, not a stock I would be interested in.
And looking at Warner Brothers Discovery new high for that stock for this move. No change in trend there for Marathon. We’re looking for a close on Wednesday above $17 to give us a buy signal. And of course that would be helped out if Bitcoin could get back on a buy signal. And then looking at Apple, and Apple still treading water up here, still on a buy signal.
Closing slightly higher on the day on Tuesday, but certainly that stock is still on a buy signal. Okay folks, that is all for Wednesday morning. So far it looks like we’re going to open higher on Wednesday. Commodities fairly quiet in the pre market, so waiting for some catalyst. Of course, we do have energy inventories coming out later this morning, and that could certainly disrupt the energy sector.
Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
In this Tuesday Morning Market Outlook, Stephen Whiteside from TheUpTrend.com highlights the current state of the financial markets, noting a calm pre-market environment except for the rising price of gold. The major U.S. indices, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100, continued their upward momentum, with the Nasdaq 100 attempting to break through resistance. The Russell 2000 also saw gains, particularly in small caps and micro caps. Monday’s U.S. market saw strong performances from Biotech stocks, Silver miners, Homebuilders, and Gold stocks, while the Canadian market recorded new closing highs in the Vanguard Canada ETF and iShares TSX 60, though Energy stocks experienced a decline.
Whiteside also touches on other key areas, including the bond market, where risk-on trades continue to push emerging markets and junk bonds higher. Commodities had a mixed performance, with crude oil and gasoline on sell signals, while natural gas remained on a buy signal. Gold and other precious metals showed strength, and Bitcoin and Ethereum remained on sell signals. Lastly, despite a potential railroad strike involving CN and CP, the market appears unconcerned, with both stocks on buy signals. Whiteside concludes by noting that trends from the previous Friday continued into Monday and may persist into Tuesday.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet out there. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning. There is economic numbers coming out from some country every hour on the hour during the week.
And what I’ve tried to do is just limit this list to the major ones. And so we’ve got FOMC minutes coming out on Wednesday. We’ve got jobless claims on Thursday, and then we’ve got the Fed chairman speaking on Friday. So those are probably the biggest news items of the week ahead. Now, the market made a complete recovery last week and so we’re back to where we started, essentially.
And we’ve got the VIX on a sell signal. We’ve got the VIX for the Nasdaq on the sell signal, and we’ve got the VIX for the Russell finally on a sell signal. And so that’s supportive for higher stock prices. The Dow gapped higher last week. The S&P 500 gapped higher and traded back up to where all of this madness started.
And here we are at resistance. If we can take out that resistance, then 562.50 is our next target. And that’s where we peaked back in July. So there’s not much further to go before we get back to retesting the high. And of course, if we can take out that high, you can see the next two targets to the upside.
For the Nasdaq 100. We’re back to again where it started. And we’re also back to the bottom of an open gap. So that could potentially continue to act as resistance. Looking at the Russell 2000, we finally got back on a buy signal on Thursday and we’re stuck here at 212.50.
And there’s the open gap that still needs to get filled. And if we take that out, then 218.75 would be our next target to the upside. Looking at the Canadian market, we’re right back up at the previous highs there at 35.16 on the iShares for the TSX 60. If we take that out, then 35.94 is our next target to the upside. Canadian banks, the equal weighted Bank ETF is back up at the recent highs.
The energy sector had a nice run last week. It has pulled back on Friday and it may pull back again today with crude oil trading slightly lower in the pre market on Monday morning. Now, while energy stocks pulled back on Friday, gold stocks continued to move higher for this move and are back up at previous resistance. We’re trying to break through that. If we can do that, then 23.44 comes into play.
I don’t think that’s going to happen on Monday. Now, while the stock market was rallying last week, we didn’t see much interest in the cryptocurrencies with both Bitcoin and Ethereum still on sell signal. So no change in trend there. And it looks like they are trading lower in the premarket this morning. Looking at the bond market, the bond market still on buy signals here for the TLT and the XBB.
What’s outperforming at the moment are the high risk bonds, whether you’re looking at the emerging market or the junk bond market. There’s the HYG, the JNK, both hitting new highs for this move on Friday. Looking at commodity ETF’s, we had crude oil pull back into the channel on Friday. A close blow, $75.51 would give us a sell signal on Monday. Joining gasoline already on a sell signal and natural gas trading in the channel looking for close on Monday below $13.88.
There’s the GLD making a new high, trying to break away from 231.25. If we can do that, then 237.50 would be our next target. Not expecting that to happen on Monday. There’s palladium and platinum on buy signals right now and silver trading up to the highs from two weeks ago last up this morning. Let’s take a look at the magnificent eight ETF.
It’s on its fourth day of a buy signal here and we’re trading up, getting pretty close to the 45 31 level. If we can take that out. You can see that there’s still an open gap here and we’ll be looking for a move up to 46.88. Now, the two stocks that have performed the best out of this group have been meta and Shopify. And in both cases, I waved off those buy signals and I would do it again there.
Shopify moving up to $75 in the US, trying to fill that. It filled that open gap. It looks like I would do it again. And the reason for that was at the time that those buy signals went off, the VIX was still on a buy signal. And you can see the big move up we had in the VIX for the Nasdaq.
So, yeah, I’m unfortunate that I waived both of those off and they performed so well. But next time around, I’m going to do it again. Because when the options traders in Chicago are telling me that something could be broken and they’re anticipating the stock market to potentially crash. I’m not going to throw new money into the market at that particular time. So certainly, if I’m short one of those stocks, I’m going to cover my short position, but I am not going to go long in that situation if it comes up again in the future, obviously, you know, if you’ve got a crystal ball and you can see how things are going to work out, when the VIX is that elevated, then, yeah, use your crystal ball.
But I don’t have one. And I just got to go with the information I have at the time. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. It looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open on Monday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, August 19, 2024
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are currently trading below fair value. We’ve got commodities mixed with crude oil lower, while gold is higher once again on Friday morning. Well, it’s been a very impressive week.
The stock market has been able to trade through all of these economic numbers this week. This morning we do have housing starts coming out at 8:30, not the major number, but it is something the market is going to have to digest depending on what the numbers look like. Now, this week we saw the VIX come back. It’s back on a sell signal. The VIX for the Nasdaq is back on a sell signal.
And finally, the VIX for the Russell is back on a sell signal. So all the vixs are lining up and that is supportive for higher stock prices. The Dow gapped higher yesterday, and, of course, the Dow was the last one to move higher. We were concerned about it last weekend because we’re seeing positive moves in the, the other major indices. And the dow was holding back.
We looked at that on the weekend. I think there was six stocks that were actually on buy signals and the two more added at the close last Friday. So eight out of the 30 stocks were on daily buy signals coming into last weekend. That has certainly changed this week. There’s the S&P 500 continuing to move higher.
On Thursday last weekend, we were looking at the potential of the VIX having a reaction move and moving back up, probably filling an open gap, moving up a couple of price targets and then heading back down. And as you can see, we traded through that open gap and have moved up a couple of more price targets. And now we’re up at resistance. If we can continue to move higher, we’re getting pretty close to those previous highs. Now, looking at the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 currently trading above their five day moving average, we are back up at the top of the range.
So wouldn’t be surprised if the market slow down here, which it is doing in the pre market this morning. Now looking at the S&P 500, equal weighted, it did participate this week as well. There’s the Nasdaq 100. There’s the Russell 2000 back on a buy signal. We’ve got small caps and micro caps now back on buy signals.
So the rest of the market chimed in coming into the end of the week. Now, looking at the Canadian market, there’s the iShares for the TSX 60 running back up to the previous high and resistance is at 35.16. The high yesterday was 35.12. If we can break out above that, then 35.94 comes into play for the ishares. For the TSX 60, there’s the financials gapping higher.
On Thursday we saw the energy sector gap higher and gold stocks are still on a buy signal. Right now, gold stocks are coming back up to resistance at 22.66. That’s where we’ve run out of steam previously. If we can take out the recent highs from July there, 23.44 would be our next target to the upside. Let’s finish off today’s presentation, taking a look at the most actively traded stocks, and we’ll start off looking at the TSX most actives from Thursday’s trading action.
We’ve got Enbridge breaking down into the channel yesterday, looking for a close below $52.50 on Friday to give us a new sell signal. Manulife second day of a buy signal for Manulife. It filled the gap and continued to move higher. Canadian Natural Resources fourth day of a buy signal making a new high for this move, breaking out above the previous highs. Then looking at Algonquin Power.
No joy there. Second day of a sell signal for Telus, then fourth day of a buy signal for Baytex. Second day of a buy signal for Cenovus. No change in trend there for Osisko Mining being taken out. Then the TD Bank.
Second day of a buy signal for the TD Bank and then Shopify looking like it’s going to run up and fill that open gap from back in May. And we’ve got capstone mining back on a buy signal. Let’s finish off taking a look at the US most actives from Thursday’s trading action. There’s Nvidia on its third day of a buy signal. We had a new high yesterday for Ambev.
We’ve got Tesla back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. No joy yet for intel. Big reversal for grab holdings. Then we saw pop yesterday for Amazon back on a buy signal. There’s one of the reasons that the Dow was up sharply yesterday.
That was Walmart. So Walmart totally freaking the market out. Everybody was on the wrong side of that trade. Then we’ve got Terawolf trading up to the upper channel line yesterday and then reversing. So we’re still looking for a close above $3.93 to give us a buy signal.
And then Cisco popped yesterday, another Dow 30 stock. That’s certainly a big contributor to why the Dow was up yesterday. Then we’ve got Apple. Third day of a buy signal there. New high yesterday for Palantir.
And then we had a new high yesterday for NU. It has been on a tear for the past few days. We’ve got Advanced Micro Devices still on a buy signal. No change there. Then AT&T closing just below the lower channel line, generating a new cell signal on Thursday.
And then we’ve got Ford looking for a close above $10.40. We closed at $10.46. So Ford back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. The futures are still below fair value, so we are going to see some selling at the open on Friday morning.
Now that’s not a big deal. It was a huge up week. The market is currently overbought on a short term basis. So to have it pull back a bit, not a big deal. The first sign something is really happening is if we close below the previous day’s low.
So if we end the day below Thursday’s low, I would be concerned that we just put in a top. But that’s not what’s happening at the moment. So in the pre market, seeing a little pullback, not a big deal after the big week we’ve had this week. Enjoy the rest of your day, have a wonderful weekend, and we’ll talk to you again soon. It.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, August 16, 2024
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are currently trading above fair value. Now, so far this week, the market responded positively to PPI numbers on Tuesday, CPI numbers on Wednesday, and let’s see if they can do it again on Thursday, with initial jobless claims and retail sales coming out at 8:30 this morning. Now, over the past couple of days, we’ve had the VIX back on a sell signal that’s supported for higher stock prices.
No major changes in the world of currencies. A new high for the euro yesterday. The us dollar index closed up slightly on the day. No change there. No major change for the japanese yen.
Bond prices continued to move higher on Wednesday. We saw the TLT and the XBB both trade higher. So we know bond traders are fairly happy right now. The Dow finally caught up with the S&P 500, the TSX and the Nasdaq 100 generating a buy signal. On Wednesday.
We saw American Express come back with a buy signal. We’ve got travelers, we’ve got United healthcare, and we’ve got Verizon all back on buy signals as of Wednesday’s close. Now, what didn’t work yesterday was Walmart, but Walmart’s out with earnings this morning and it is trading higher in the pre market. So it could end the day on a buy signal that would be positive for the market. And you can see Walmart hasn’t pulled back that much.
Now compare how Walmart looks to some of the knuckle draggers in the Dow 30. So we’ve got a wide range of stocks here in the Dow that are not participating in the rally. That includes Boeing, Cisco, which is not participating in the rally, but may, starting today, it’s out with earnings, it’s cutting jobs, blah, blah, blah. It’s trading higher in the pre market this morning and could end the day on a buy signal. No joy for Chevron, no joy for Disney.
Still watching Honeywell trading below the lower channel line. That’s also true for intel. And there we’ve got Merck at the lower channel line, but no change in trend. Now, if you’re going to watch the US market, of course you want to watch the S&P 500. It traded slightly higher yesterday, just up a third of a percent on the day.
Volumes are light right now. You would expect that in the month of August. A lot of people are talking about the fact that the volumes on the way up are much lower than the volumes on the way down. That is true, but the reality is we are on buy signals right now and the volume may pick up later. It may never pick up.
It doesn’t matter. At the end of the day, the market is where it is and if it’s on light volume or heavy volume, it doesn’t really matter. The Nasdaq was up slightly on the day. On Wednesday we saw semiconductors looking at the SMH up slightly on the day. So no major changes there.
Now the rest of the market not doing so well again, the Russell 2000 was actually down nearly two thirds of a percent on Wednesday. Now what worked yesterday? Well, it was financials, and financials popped yesterday and you would think it would have something to do with bank stocks or regional banks. They did not participate yesterday. Both of those were down on the day.
It was more about insurance companies and broker dealers. The financial sector was led higher yesterday by progressive and allstate with Charles Schwab coming in third on the performance list. And there it had a nice pop. It is back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Looking at the Canadian market, it continued to move higher on Wednesday, being led higher by Infotech.
And of course Shopify has a lot to do with that. But we’ve got converge back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Still waiting for BlackBerry to close above 3.15. Still waiting for Bit Farms to close above $3.30. Then we’ve got Celestica on its second day of a buy signal.
No joy for Hut 8 on Wednesday. Then we’ve got Lightspeed trading up to the upper channel line two days in a row. And that nice open gap there looking for a close on Thursday above $17.91 there we’ve got Open Text. Second day of a buy signal for Open Text. I guess we’re going to move back up to the 43.75 level level.
Then we’ve got Shopify continuing to move higher and it looks like it might be heading for $100 and then possibly filling that open gap. Last up this morning looking at Bitcoin and Ethereum. No joy here. Still on sell signals, no change in trend. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation.
So far it looks like the market wants to do some buying at the open. But again, we’ve got retail sales and jobless claims coming out at 8:30. Those numbers could certainly change the direction of the market. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Of course, this is a jam packed news week, and yesterday it was all about PPI numbers, and the market reacted very positively off those numbers. And now this morning, we’re waiting for CPI numbers to come out at 8:30, and we’ll see how the market reacts.
Yesterday we saw the VIX closed below the lower channel line, generating a sell signal that’s supported for higher stock prices. The US dollar dollar index came down yesterday. Japanese yen was fairly quiet. It had an inside day. So the japanese yen is on pause at the moment.
It is still on a buy signal. And remember, that big run up in the japanese yen spooked the carry trade, which apparently put downward pressure on the stock market. But that seems to have dissipated over the past few days. Bond yields came down yesterday. It looks like the bond market is fairly stable at the moment.
Now, the SPY had a big pop yesterday, up over 1.5%. It has cut through some of our potential resistance areas. It’s also cut through the moving averages and is coming up to a downtrend line that could act as resistance. But so far, it’s looking pretty positive. Now, the Nasdaq 100 was up just under two and a half percent yesterday.
And so again, we’re in the situation where it’s mostly those big cap tech stocks leading the market higher. Now, typically, when you see the markets pop like they did yesterday, you would think that everybody was winning, but that wasn’t the case yesterday. Yesterday in the US market, we had 269 one month highs and 424 one month lows. And you can see that most of those were in the Nasdaq. And if we go down here to the 52 week highs, you can see that we only had 89 yesterday in the US markets, but 151 new 52 week lows.
And again, most of those were in the Nasdaq. So again, the market has split. It’s like going back to when you were a little kid in school. All the big kids wanted to play together and wouldn’t let the little kids play. Well, that’s exactly what happened yesterday.
So there’s the ishares for the TSX 60 popping yesterday, up just under 1% on the day. And the canadian market is looking a little more healthy right now. You can see there was more one month highs yesterday than one month lows. There was also more 52 week highs than 52 week lows. Unfortunately, that doesn’t work.
Its way to the venture exchange. At the moment it’s still looking fairly weak. But when we talk about 52 week highs, Alamos Gold made a new 52 week high. Cineplex made a new 52 week high. We had Fortis and we had Hydro One.
Just as some examples of stocks making new 52 week highs. Now back to the us market. Yeah, the Russell 2000 was up on the day. Small cap stocks and micro cap stocks were all up on the day, but no new trends there. Now we were watching the Dow 30 on the weekend and it has not generated a buy signal just yet.
We did have a couple of more stocks join the party and Apple was one of them. So Apple is going to show up in a couple of places. Goldman Sachs very weak buy signal there. Similar situation for JPMorgan. But those three stocks, those three Dow 30 stocks are back on buy signals as of Tuesday’s close.
Now looking at the magnificent eight, we’ve got the ETF back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Meta continues to move higher. New high for this particular move, we’ve got Nvidia back on a buy signal as of Tuesday days close. Shopify had an inside day. I hear people talking about next price targets plus the top of that open gap and that’d be interesting to see if we can continue to move higher.
Now, ark looking at the ARK ETF’s, two of them are back on buy signals, the ones that we thought the market loved, and that was fintech and the Internet. ETF are both back on buy signals. Now looking through the Canadian most actives. And these are by volume, dollar weight. And we’re starting off with Enbridge making new high, very small move for Canadian Natural Resources yesterday, closing just down two cent on the day.
A fairly quiet day for the Royal Bank. Looking for a close on Wednesday above $151.03. We’ve got Torbelline on a buy signal right now. We’ve got a new high for this move. For Suncor.
Then looking at Manulife, we’re waiting for a close above $35.11 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. For the Bank of Montreal, it’s $114.45. And for the TD Bank, we’re looking for a close above $79.33. No joy for the Bank of Nova Scotia inside day yesterday and an inside day for Shopify. And again, we’re looking to see if we could move up to fill that open gap.
Looking at the US most actives from yesterday’s trading action, starting off with Nvidia, we talked about that. It’s back on a buy signal. Now. Starbucks stole the CEO from Chipotle and so one popped, one dropped. But those were wild moves and a lot of money changed hands yesterday.
Looking at intel, Intel moving up slightly yesterday. No joy there. No joy for Tesla. Still looking for a close on Wednesday above $211.17. Inside day for Palantir on Tuesday.
We saw a slight move higher yesterday for NU, then looking at Lumen. We dipped into the channel yesterday but came back and closed just above above it. No joy for Ford. Still looking for a close above $10.51 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. New low for JetBlue yesterday.
Plug Power traded into the channel so a close above $2.26 would give us a buy signal on Wednesday. And there’s advanced microdevices generating a buy signal from Tuesday’s close. Then looking at Marathon. No joy there. A slightly higher close, but nothing going on.
And then last up, we’ve got Tencent Music making a new low for this move on Tuesday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. I’m going to get this out ahead of the CPI numbers coming out at 8:30. Of course, if there’s a dramatic reversal in the market, you don’t have to take any of the buy signals generated from yesterday’s trading action. Otherwise, if the market is going to open flat or higher, you probably want to take those signals.
Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We talked about this week being a jam packed news week, and it starts off today with PPI numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. We do see a little weakness in the Dow, and that has a lot to do with one stock.
We’ll get to that in a minute. I’ll keep this presentation brief. Monday was fairly quiet. There was a lot of excitement in the commodity world, but outside of that, the world was fairly quiet. Look at how small that bar was for the VIX.
The VIX dipped below the lower channel line yesterday, but came back and closed just above it. So we’re still waiting for a sell signal for the VIX. Looking at the Dow, which we talked about on the weekend, it had an inside day on Monday. No trend changes for the Dow, 30 stocks from Monday’s trading action. In the premarket this morning, we’ve got Home Depot trading lower.
It was already on a sell signal, so no change in trend for Home Depot. Looking at the Magnificent Eight, no trend changes there. We did have Apple trade up through the upper channel line, so we’re still looking for a close above $218 to give us a buy signal on Tuesday. And for Nvidia, which traded up to the upper channel line, we’re looking for a close on Tuesday above $110.72. Now, looking at the ARK Innovations ETF’s, no trend changes there.
It looks like the market is interested in Fintech, and there’s one other area they seem to be interested in, but they’re not interested in Genomics or the Innovations ETF. So you could see that short covering could bring these ETF’s up to this level right now. Now we’re looking for new buyers to come in and take these ETF’s higher. Looking at the Industrial ETF, no change there. Now it looks like Fintech.
There’s a little interest in the Internet ETF and a little interest in the Space ETF, but, none of those are going anywhere at the moment. No trend changes at all. Now, looking at the cryptocurrency world, we only cover two cryptocurrencies, and that’s Bitcoin and Ethereum, and there’s no trend changes there. And last up, looking at the world of commodities, big move up yesterday in crude oil. That took the energy stocks higher.
Natural gas continues to move higher. No joy for copper yet. Certainly traded higher, but not enough to give us a buy signal. Gold moved up nicely yesterday. It is down a little in the pre market this morning we had platinum move up, not enough to give us a buy signal and silver moved up again, not enough to give us a buy signal.
Now, in percentage terms, looking at the North American markets, the big percentage winner yesterday was the TSX Materials index which moved up to the upper channel line. We don’t have a buy signal just yet. Unlike the Global Gold index index which is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. Energy stocks up 3% and change yesterday. Back on a buy signal.
Nice big up move for the GDX, back on a buy signal as well. No joy just yet for the Silver Miners ETF trading up nicely into the channel. And then last up this morning, the Copper Miners ETF traded up into the channel yesterday. Not enough to give us a buy signal just yet. Okay folks, that is all I wanted to cover this morning in today’s quick presentation.
The overall market was fairly quiet yesterday. They are waiting for those PPI numbers to come out this morning and then hey, all hell could break loose or nothing could happen at all. We’ll just have to wait and see. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading above fair value. So that certainly tells us that there was no market shaking events that happened over the weekend that we may have missed. So the market seems to be pretty happy and looking to do some buying at the open on Monday morning.
Now this is a jam packed News week for the market, so we’re expecting lots of price swings this week. We’ve got PPI numbers coming out on Tuesday. We’ve got CPI numbers on Wednesday, and on Thursday we’ve got jobless claims and retail sales. So lots of numbers this week that could shake the market. Now the VIX came down after peaking on Monday, came down throughout the rest of the week.
And looking, we’re looking for a close blow 19.73 on Monday to give us a sell signal and that would be supported for higher stock prices. If you’re long, the VIX, ETF’s, they came down hard last week. We had lots of opportunity to take money off the table. We hit lots of price targets last week. So if you’re still long, you should just have a few shares left.
Looking at the VXX, we’re looking for a close on Monday below $55.16. And for the HUV, we’re looking for a close below $9.26 to give us a sell signal on Monday. Now looking at the major indices, starting off with the Dow, the Dow Diamonds traded back into the channel on Friday. We were looking at Dow stocks yesterday and we’ve got eight of the 30 stocks on buy signals right now. So still waiting for 22 of them to move up.
We may see that this week. Looking at the Dow diamonds, we need to close above $400.12 on Monday. And of course, we look at $400 as a potential area of resistance. The SPY traded back in the channel yesterday. We’ve talked about potential areas of resistance for this ETF several times over the past couple of days and certainly there’s an open gap just ahead of us there.
So we’re looking for a close on Monday above $538.94 to give us a new buy signal. For the Q’S, we’re looking for a close above $458.21. No joy for the rest of the market, though. We’ve got the Russell 2000 treading water on Friday, closing down on the day. Now the iShares for the TSX 60 moved into the channel on Friday.
We’ve got a nice big open gap there ahead of us and then a close above $34.28 would give us a new buy signal on Monday. Now, a lot of things broke down last week. A lot of things held up fairly well through all of the volatility. And if we look at the Flypaper Channel and looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, they look like a lot of the other major indices where we came down to the bottom of the Flypaper Channel and held support and started to move back up. Now we’re still in the Flypaper Channel and that of course is sticky.
It’s hard to get out of. When we’re trading above it, we’re in a bull market where when we’re in it, the market is neutral and when we’re below it, of course that’s a bear market. So when we look at what worked and what didn’t work last week the Q’S traded down below the Flypaper Channel. They came back on Friday into the channel but it’s going to be hard for them to get through that level of resistance now. What held up fair and Canadianly well, US financials, Canadian financials, they did not break down last week.
Things that broke down in the US, it was Consumer Discretionary. We saw Retails trade down through the bottom of the Flypaper Channel. We’ve got Oil and Gas Equipment, we’ve got Oil and Gas Exploration not doing well, metals and mining not doing well and Technology stocks broke down below the Flypaper Channel. You can see we’ve got a gap there before we get to the channel, so that’s not very helpful. And Semiconductors really got hit hard last week, so that’s not a pretty picture.
Looking at the Transports before we broke down, we were putting in a lower high here and another lower high compared to these highs from back here. So that was a bearish setup before it broke down and made a lower low. Looking at the Canadian market, it was a Venture Exchange that really got hit hard last week and did not recover. Clean Energy stocks not doing well. We saw the Global Mining sector start to break down.
Base Metals certainly broke down hard last week and looking at the Energy stocks, they traded below the Flypaper Channel and then came back. This is a wall of resistance here, and then above that we’ve got another wall of resistance. So I think it’s going to be very hard for the Energy sector to make, to get any mileage going forward at this particular time. And last up we’re looking at the Gold sector and it held up fairly well, bouncing off the top of the Flypaper Channel last week. So we’re looking to see if we could go back up and at least retest those highs, if not put in higher highs.
Now, looking at the Magnificent Eight, things are not looking pretty right now. We’re still on a sell signal. We moved back into the channel on Friday. A close above $43.53 would give us a new buy signal for the MMetaagnificent ETF. Now, two stocks that were on buy signals, I waved both of them off because of current market conditions.
Both Meta and Shopify held up fairly well going into the end of the week. Now, a couple of stocks broken at the moment, Amazon and Alphabet, both the below the Flypaper Channel. We’ve also got Microsoft in that condition. Now, Nvidia and Tesla are still stuck to the Flypaper Channel. Even though they traded below it, they’re still stuck to it.
So that’s acting as resistance at the present time. Let’s finish off looking at Commodity ETF. Starting off with crude oil, we’re back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. Gasoline is back on a buy signal, joining natural gas already on a buy signal. We’re still waiting for the pros to take control.
We’ve been on a buy signal for a couple of days now. Hopefully they’ll do that on Monday. Then, looking at the GLD, we’re back on a buy signal. As of Friday’s close, palladium generated a buy signal on Thursday, pulled back into the channel on Friday. No joy for platinum or silver.
We’re still on sell signals here. And last up this morning, a quick look at copper. And copper is known as the barometer of global economic health. It’s not looking very pretty at the moment. We’re still on a sell signal here after making new lows.
Now looking at who’s in control, you can see the pros. It looks like they’ve stopped selling right now. So they may not be ready to take control, but it does look like they’ve stopped selling. Now notice that this line representing the public is fairly flat and doesn’t really move that much. And that’s because in the futures market, the public really doesn’t have a lot of participation.
It’s mostly the industries, the companies that are involved in this sector, they’re the ones that are pulling the strings here. The public really doesn’t have much influence over the copper market. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far. It looks like the market wants to do a little buying at the open.
They may be a little cautious because of all those numbers that are ahead of us this week. And of course, those numbers, depending on how the market takes them, could add some extra volatility this week. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, August 12, 2024
Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. and in this presentation, we’re going to take a look at the Dow 30 stocks. You remember back in the middle of July, the VIX gave us a buy signal that told us that options traders were preparing for the market to move lower. You can see the huge spike we had on Monday.
And then the VIX has traded down throughout the week, closing at a low for the week on Friday. So on Monday, we’re looking for a close on the VIX below 19.73. That would give us an indication, the first indication, that options traders are getting more bullish about the market once again. Now, looking at the Dow 30 stocks, we currently have six on buy signals coming into Friday. We added two more on Friday at the close.
So coming into Monday, there’s eight Dow 30 stocks on buy signals. There’s currently 22 on sell signals. So that’s what the Dow 30 looks like right now. We traded up, filled the open gap after that big move down on Friday, last Friday, and then a big move down on Monday. Gap lower.
So 385 appears to be a big area of support at the moment. We’ll have to see how long that holds. But moving up, we closed in the channel. So anytime you close in the channel, you’ve got to be prepared for a new buy signal. If we can close above $400.12 on Monday, and of course, dollar 400 is a big round number, could act as potential resistance.
Now looking at the stocks that are currently on buy signals, none of them really performed that well on Friday. Kind of a weak close for most of these. Starting off with IBM, we had an inside day and a small pullback on Friday. Then looking at Coca Cola, again, we had an inside day and a very small pullback. Then looking at McDonald’s, McDonald’s trading back in the channel.
So anytime you close, you’re coming down and closing in the channel. There’s a mathematical possibility of a sell signal the next day. So looking for a close on Monday below $263.75 then looking at three m, we had an inside day. Three M has been stuck to the 125 level for a couple of weeks now. After gapping higher, that big move up.
And so here we are. If we can take out the recent high, then 137.50 comes into play. Otherwise, if we start moving down, if we take out this recent low, then 112.50 comes into play. If we take out that low, then a move down to dollar 100 and at least to fill the, the open gap would be expected. Then looking at Nike, Nike’s, on a second day of a buy signal, but I don’t think anybody cares.
I wouldn’t do anything unless I saw Nike start to close above the recent high from late July. At the same time, the trade would probably just be up to the bottom of that open gap. I don’t see it moving higher than that at this particular time. Now looking at Procter and Gamble inside day with a lower close, remember, these are the stocks that close that are still on buy signals on the Dow. Now looking at new buy signals from Friday, and they were very weak buy signals for both Caterpillar and Salesforce closing just above the upper channel line by pennies.
No real love there for those stocks, but they are technically back on buy signals. So I certainly wouldn’t get overly excited. And if I wanted to go long, I would take a small position and then add to it if the stock continues to move higher. Now there’s a huge list of stocks still waiting for buy signals. And again, I don’t care about them unless they’re closing in the channel.
And that is certainly the case for Apple looking for a close on Monday above $218.32. So yes, our next target is 225, but we’ve got an open gap there that hasn’t been filled yet, so they might try to fill it on Monday. Let’s hope they can fill it and move higher. That gap’s at $217.71. Then looking at Amgen closing right at the lower channel line.
No joy there. We saw Amazon trade up to the lower channel line, so nothing going on there. American Express and Financial seem to get a lot of love on Friday. Looking for a close above $241.60 on Monday to give us a buy signal. Nothing going on for Boeing.
Nothing going on for Cisco, Chevron. Nothing going on there. Then looking at Disney, Disney had an inside down Friday. Nothing going on there. Then looking at Dow, Dow has been trading in the channel for the past two days.
On Wednesday, it traded up right up to the upper channel line. This stock is still looking pretty ugly. Yeah, we probably put in a double bottom, but is that going to outweigh the series of lower highs and lower lows? I’m not sure, but that’s what it looks like right now. So on Monday, we’re looking for a close above $53.36 to give us a buy signal.
And I’d be more excited if it could break out above that downtrend line, and that certainly hasn’t happened yet. Now, as I mentioned, looked like a lot of love for financials on Friday. There’s Goldman Sachs trading right up to the upper channel line. So we’re looking for a close on Monday above $491.71. No joy for Home Depot closing below the lower channel line.
No joy for Honeywell on Friday. And certainly no joy for intel inside day on Friday. I’m sure Intel’s going to be removed from the dow at some point in the not so distant future. It is certainly underperforming the rest of the sector. JPMorgan, another financial stock, trading up.
I think it’s got a couple of pennies more to go before it fills that gap. And then we’re looking for a close on Monday above $207.32. No joy for Merck trading right up to the lower channel line. Similar situation for Microsoft on Friday. The travelers group in the channel.
Once again, technically we need a close above $213.98. Not a stock I’d really chase at the moment. You can see we’re basically right where we were back in early April. So nobody’s had any love for this stock in a few months back here. Yeah, that’s.
There was a low risk buying opportunity. We moved up, had a nice move up, got up to the $230 level and then retreated. And we’re still holding 200, which is acting as support. So we’re in a trading range between 200 and 230, and we’re below the middle of that trading range at the moment. Then looking at Visa, Visa is still a very ugly chart.
Series of lower highs. Lower lows. Is this a higher low? Well, only time will tell. On Monday, we’re looking for a close above $263.35.
So another financial stock, but certainly not looking as strong as the other financial stocks. Then Verizon. Verizon is technically back on a buy signal. I didn’t add this to that, the list of buy stocks, because again, it’s a very weak one. This is incredibly weak.
We’re looking for a close above $40.74. Nine. And we closed at $40.75. So a 10th of a cent above the upper channel line. So I would say that is an incredibly weak buy signal.
Then looking at Walmart. Walmart closing just above the lower channel line, looking for a close on Monday above $69.13. And Walmart has come down to the flypaper channel and found support once again. And this is the time and place where buyers would be buying the dip, looking to move it back up. And I would certainly be interested in buying Walmart if the buy signal shows up.
Now, one stock actually generated a sell signal on Friday, and that stock was United Healthcare. And there it is closing below the lower channel line on Friday. So that is a new daily sell signal. Okay, folks, that’s all for this presentation. That was quite a recovery off last Monday’s low.
The market gapped lower on Monday, made a low and has come back. The VIX made a high and has come down over the past couple of days. Are we going to see fall through to the upside this week? Well, we certainly need it because we only have a handful of Dow 30 stocks on buy signals right now. And for the market to have a sustainable trend higher, we need the majority of those stocks back on buy signals.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is actually later today.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Sunday, August 11, 2024
