Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it looks like it’s going to be a very happy Friday. For those of you who are short or long the Bear ETF’s today. We’ve got stock index futures trading down sharply across the board.
That could change at 8:30 with employment numbers coming out, but I highly doubt it. There’s some stocks getting really hurt this morning and they’re pulling down the major indices. We’re going to be closed on Monday. Canadian markets are closed. We’re going to take the day off.
It’s summer. I’m not sure what our schedule is going to be. We’ll probably do a site update on maybe Tuesday morning. But next time you’ll hear my voice in the pre market is going to be on Wednesday morning and I will do a short video over the weekend. Now, I said I was going to talk about commodities this morning, but things have changed.
The market changed yesterday, it changed overnight. And so we’ll just cover the basics here. Crude oil is still on a sell signal. It’s trading slightly higher in the premarket this morning. Natural gas still on a sell signal.
Gold still on a buy signal. It’s trading higher this morning. Silver still on a sell signal. It may end Friday on a buy signal. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Now, semiconductors were once again the big losers yesterday that pulled the market down. Now we talked about advanced micro devices the other day it popped and traded up to the upper channel line, but did not close above it. And then yesterday it fell apart and has made a new low. So we had a lot of new lows for this move. Anytime I say new low and don’t say 52 week or all time, I’m just talking about the particular move in the market.
And right now Advanced Micro Devices is making a new low for this move. Now, today or yesterday we were talking about Meta and meta popped and completely reversed by the end of the day. So we ended the day. It was a bearish reversal day for Meta. Last time that happened was right here and then previously it happened over here.
So that marked the top. And you can see what happened yesterday with the public pushing the market up and the pre market and then down going into the close. The pros really did not take advantage of that. So we’re not looking for anything long term here for meta at the moment. So we opened up there and we closed way down there.
So if you were short meta, you need to cover your short position this morning, not yesterday morning. Remember, we’re looking for the first close above the upper channel line, and the open yesterday was irrelevant. It’s all about how we close. We closed above the upper channel line. If you’re still short Meta, you want to cover those positions this morning.
Now we are trading lower in the pre market. Any number that I give you in the pre market is going to change by the time you see this video. But right now we’re still trading lower. So that’s better for you if you have to cover a short position. Am I going to go long Meta right now?
No, I’m not going to go long Meta. I’ll sit on my hands and wait until the market turns around before I’m going to jump into Meta. I think it’s a very temporary thing. I think it was mostly short covering, and I think Meta will probably continue to drift lower over the next few days. Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a buy signal.
That’s negative for stocks. Things would change on Friday if we closed below 15.17. But from what we’re seeing in the pre market this morning, that’s not likely to happen now. For the Canadian market, the TSX made a new high on Wednesday, reversed on Thursday, and we’ll probably get a sell signal on Friday with a close below 34.34 for the iShares for the TSX 60. Now, you have had lots of opportunities to lock in profits along the way, and if you still have a position, it should be a very small position in the iShares for the TSX 60.
So still no joy for the SPY. We’re still either short the SPY or long the bear. ETF. Similar situation for the Nasdaq 100. We’re still short the Nasdaq or long the bear you choose, but that’s where you should be at the moment. Now, the Magnificent Seven is still on a sell signal.
It opened and traded above the upper channel line yesterday before pulling back, closing below the lower channel line once again. There’s only one stock in this group on a buy signal right now, and that is meta. Apple is trading higher. This morning it was down $3.70. It’s up a dollar and change this morning.
So that’s not going to give us a buy signal. There’s Amazon. Amazon is down hard in the pre market this morning. So for the last two days, we’ve been able to trade above the upper trend line, but we have not closed above it. So here we are coming down hard on Friday morning.
Then looking at Alphabet no change in trend there. No change in trend for micro or Nvidia. Nvidia traded up to the upper channel line but came down hard going into the close. Probably a new low on Friday. Certainly a new low for this move for Shopify on both sides of the border.
And then there’s Tesla holding the recent lows, but those are probably going to break on Friday morning. Now, Intel’s in the news this morning and if you’ve been around for any length of time, you know, I don’t like this stock. They missed the cell phone revolution, they missed the AI revolution. And we were expecting it to be able to hold the lows from the last couple of months here, but those broke yesterday and now we’re trading way down here in the pre market and intel is a Dow 30 stock. So that’s pulling down the Dow in the pre market.
It’s a chip stock and the chips were hit hard yesterday and they’re going to continue to get hit hard this morning. TEAM is sharply lowered down at the 140 level. So no change in trend for that stock. No change in trend for a Snap. Trading down close to $10 this morning.
So, you know, if you’re short, Snap, you know, take some money off the table at the open this morning. Why not? Why not enjoy the weekend with some locked in profits? Now, looking at ARK, there’s only one ETF that anyone’s interested in at the moment. If you’re long the bear ETF for Ark, no problem.
You’re probably going to see it spike sharply higher once again on Friday. Nobody wants the Fintech. The Genomics is the only one anyone’s interested in right now. It’s coming into Friday on a buy signal. That would change on Friday with a close below $25.99.
There’s the Innovation ETF being hit hard yesterday. It’ll probably take out the May low today. We’ve got the Industrial ETF making a new low for this move. It was trying to hold the recent lows here, but those are going to break on Friday morning and then look at the Internet ETF, new low for this move and a new low for this move for the Space ETF. Now looking at the Canadian market.
So we’ve already looked at Shopify after that. It’s Constellation software. We’re back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. So that’s new CGI holding most of its gains coming into Friday. Inside day on Thursday for CGI, no joy for BlackBerry.
We’re still on a sell signal, still on a sell signal. For Bitfarms. Still on a sell signal for Celestica and still on a sell signal for Hut 8. So no change in trend there. Kinaxis came down hard yesterday.
You know, it was down what, 9% yesterday? That’s a big move down. You’ve had lots of opportunities to take money off the table on the way up. So if you’ve got any shares left, which I hope you do, you should never completely liquidate a position, but you should only have a few shares left of this stock then. Open Text last chart this morning Open Text back on a sell signal.
As of Thursday’s close, we needed a close below 42.63. We closed at 42.27. And with what’s happening in the tech sector this morning, you have no reason to continue to hold open text okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Fear is still rising. That’s usually negative for stocks.
How it manifests, what sectors it takes out. Most of the time it takes out the whole market. But this time around it really focused on big cap tech stocks and money didn’t come out of the market. It actually went into other areas of the market. But it looks like everybody’s going to get hit on Friday.
Have a wonderful Friday. Have a wonderful weekend. If you’re north of the border, have a wonderful long weekend and I will speak to you over the weekend if you’re a member for non members. Next time I’ll be back for a pre market video. Will probably be Wednesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, August 2, 2024
