Hello, everyone, and happy Friday. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with your morning market outlook for Friday, July 26, 2024. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are up across the board, but we do have some major economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that could certainly change the direction of the market. A stock in the news this morning is Dexcom. And coming into today’s trading action, we were on a weekly sell signal since April and on a daily sell signal this week. And yesterday we made a new low for this move, but after hours, the stock dropped dramatically lower. We were coming down to the bottom of our projected trading range on the daily charts. On the weekly charts, our next target to the downside should have been dollar 100, but we are trading all the way down at the dollar 70 level at the moment. So if you’re short Dexcom, you know, you might want to take some money off the table at the open this morning because it’s a, you’re doing pretty good. And to see the stock break down below the lows from last fall is quite an incredible move for this stock.
Now, looking at the commodity sector this morning, we saw a move down in copper yesterday, making a new low before recovering, closing slightly higher on the day. Big down day for gold, down $64 and change on Thursday. It’s up $14, last time I checked this morning. Platinum continued to move lower on Thursday. Silver made a new low for this move. Again, it’s trading up slightly in the pre market this morning, but no change in trend. Now, crude oil reversed yesterday after making a new low, bouncing off the $76 level and closing higher on the day. So we saw some money come back into the energy sector yesterday. No joy for natural gas trying to hold the recent low. Now, the TSX traded down through the lower channel line yesterday. I was expecting it to end the day on a sell signal, but it was held up by real estate and financials. And when we look at the energy sector itself, you can see it reversed and closed higher on the day. So again, some money came back into the energy sector, but no change in trend. Looking at gold stocks on the TSX, we are back on a sell signal.
A little bit more selling on the GDX in New York, but again, we’re on a sell signal for gold stocks coming into Friday’s trading action. Now, we’ve been watching fear rise over the last week and it made a new high for this move. And so things would change on Friday if the VIX were to close below 13.53. Now semiconductors were the big losers yesterday after the commodity sector and we were down nearly 2.5% on the day. Looking at the biggest loser on the Nasdaq, it was actually Lululemon, which was down over 9% on the day. It had been on a sell signal since the start of June. So no change in trend there. If you’re still short Lululemon, congratulations. Arm Holdings was the biggest loser on the Nasdaq in the Semiconductor sector, down nearly 5.5%. But bouncing off the 140 level and then looking at the S&P 500, it was Edwards Life Sciences dropped dramatically yesterday, down over 30% on the day. So no change in trend for that stock. And if you’re short this stock, I’d be locking in some profits at the open on Friday morning. Now, Ford gapped lower yesterday.
We knew that it was going to be on a sell signal coming into yesterday’s trading action. We did. Certainly didn’t know it was going to gap that far down. Now, it had a nice run up. You had lots of opportunities to take some money off the table. So if you do still have a position, it should be a very small position which you need to clean up at the open on Friday morning. Now looking at the Russell 2000, it’s still holding up fairly well. So there’s still a love for mid cap, small cap, micro cap stocks. That has not changed. Now, we did see the Dow rollover and join the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on a sell signal. The TSX is still on a buy signal. So the major us indices are all on sell signals except anything that’s not big cap related at the moment. Now looking at the Dow 30, the big winner yesterday was IBM, which was up over 4% on the day. So huge move up for IBM and congratulations if you’re long IBM. We saw Amgen make a new high for this move before coming down and closing slightly lower on the day.
Certainly no change in trend there. We would need to see a close on Friday below $327.46. Johnson and Johnson made a new high on Thursday. We saw a new high for Coca Cola before pulling back. Still closing higher on the day. No change in trend for Goldman Sachs. That would happen on Friday with a close below $482.37. No change for Unitedhealthcare. Still on a buy signal. Walmart still on a buy signal. Here, treading water up at the $70 level. A close below $69.89 would give us a sell signal on Friday. What’s not working right now? Well, looking at Walt Disney, we made a new low on Thursday, so no change in trend there. Then looking at Nike, Nike started the week on a buy signal and is back on a sell signal right now trying to hold the recent lows. Things would change on Friday if Nike closed above $74.17. Then looking at Visa. Visa is usually a pretty stable stock, but not over the past couple of months in which we’ve made a series of lower highs and lower lows. Gapping lower on Wednesday, making a new low on Thursday. Next target to the downside for Visa is 250.
Amazon making a new low for this move on Thursday. We saw Honeywell gap lower on Thursday. So coming down, trying to hold the dollar 200 level on Friday. New low for Microsoft for this move and a new low for intel for this move as well. Now, intel traded sideways for quite a while over the past few months, so this is a huge band of potential support here and we’ll have to see if that holds. Then looking at the Dow stock itself, not the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but Dow itself, we made a new low for this move, trading through the recent low from a couple of weeks ago, but reversed and nicely going into the close. We still ended the day on a sell signal, so no change there. Okay, folks, that is all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. I’m doing this ahead of the numbers coming out at 830. Right now the Dow is up over 250 points in the pre market, so certainly investors are looking to buy some stocks at the open on Friday unless their minds get changed because of the numbers coming out at 830. Have a great Friday.
Have a great weekend. If you’re a subscriber, I’ll be back on Sunday to take a look at the weekly charts.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, July 26, 2024
