Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are currently flat. It looks like the market’s waiting for those retail sales numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.
Now, we also have crude oil trading lower in the pre market this morning, so we actually may end Tuesday on a sell signal for crude oil. Gold is trading higher in the pre market, so we might be taking a run at that previous high. Now, the VIX is actually back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close now, I really don’t think the market is going to notice a small move in the VIX like that. It’s probably going to take more of a breakout above the 200 day moving average which held us in check back in May. If that starts to happen, I think the market would really pay attention to that and start selling off.
We are stuck at resistance. That doesn’t guarantee anything. It’s just we had a target. We hit our target. We stopped for the ishares
for the TSX 60. Our next target was 34.38. We closed at 34.37 yesterday. For the SPY, 562.50. We closed just below that yesterday.
For the Nasdaq, 100. $500 was our next target. We traded just above that yesterday before pulling back and closing below that level. Still closing higher on the day. I’ve been looking at a lot of price targets.
This one was interesting. The next generation Nasdaq stocks. We knew last week if we could take out these recent highs, then our next target would be 28.91. And what did we close at yesterday? We closed at 28.91.
So we’ve spent two days at this price target. We’ve traded above it, but we haven’t been able to break away from it just yet. If we can, then 29.69 is our next target to the upside now. Bitcoin and Ethereum popped yesterday, both gapping higher, both back on buy signals as of Monday’s close. Now, we’ve seen a lot of financials earnings lately, and the financials rocketed higher yesterday.
If we look at the Panic Zone chart, remember, we’re always looking for low risk buying opportunities off the bottom of the panic zones. When a Pressure Zone is forming. A lot of times you don’t get back to the bottom of the Panic Zones because the symbol that you’re following is actually becoming more bullish. Remember, we had the early warning signals up there. We had a pullback.
What happened? We put in a higher low so once you start breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows and you start making higher highs and higher lows, then you’ve got to expect that pattern to continue. And so what’s happened? We recently put in a higher high. So once the pattern breaks, once a new pattern starts, you should expect that pattern to continue until it doesn’t.
So there’s the Bank ETF and the Regional Bank ETF both rocketing higher from the middle of last week and looking at individual symbols. Bank of America has moved up nicely over the past few months without a major pullback, making a new high yesterday. Citigroup had a much more significant pullback from the middle of May into the middle of June and it traded through the lower channel line on Friday but came back on Monday. So no change in trend there. We also saw a dip for JPMorgan on Friday but it pulled back on Monday making a new high.
There’s key corp trading up to the previous highs from May. We had a new high for PMC yesterday. Goldman Sachs made a new high, Morgan Stanley made a new high. But Wells Fargo on the other hand dipped sharply lower on Friday. Came back yesterday.
But that’s looking like a pretty ugly stock putting in a lower high over the past week or so. Now moving on to the canadian market, we’ve got the Canadian financials breaking out above the previous high. Banks haven’t done that just yet. There’s a couple of sloppy looking banks right now, including the bank of Montreal and the Bank of Nova Scotia. CIBC had a nice update yesterday but obviously it has disappointed investors over the past couple of months we’ve had some quite dramatic moves for a canadian bank.
Now National Bank we know gapped lower because the takeover offer but it’s made quite a nice recovery over the past few weeks. The Royal Bank is the elephant in the room and it set off some alarm bells the other day. We had an early warning signal on the panic zone chart. We had a bearish reversal day. We made a new high on Thursday then pulled back and closed lower on the day.
So that can set off alarm bells. What we didn’t do was close below the previous day’s low. So nothing has shown up here. The chevron is indicating that we’re putting in a top right now but obviously we don’t have a lot of confirmation that that is actually happening. So that chevron may fade away over the next few days if we we don’t start heading lower right now.
Then looking at the TD Bank, it’s had a nice couple of days it’s been on a buy signal for a few weeks now. So while canadian banks are lagging against their us counterparts at the moment, they are certainly on buy signals right now. Looking at some of the insurance companies. There’s Great West, there’s Industrial Alliance and then it looks like everybody loves Intact at the moment. And then we’ve got Manulife dipping into the channel yesterday but still closing slightly higher on the day.
So no change there and then no change for Sunlife. We’re making a new high for this move and we’ve traded up to 68.75 for the past couple of days. If we can take that out, then 70.31 is our next target. Is that a realistic target? We’ll just look to the left here and you’ll certainly see that that acted as resistance back in May.
So that is certainly a realistic target to the upside for sun life. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Everybody’s really happy with financials at the moment. We don’t have any major early warning signals just yet. The market has traded up to resistance and stopped.
We’ll have to see if those major indices can continue to push higher from here. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
