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Good morning everyone and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning things are positive once again. Dow future is currently up 70 points. We are expecting PPI numbers to come out at 8:30 this morning. And that of course could add to the volatility.

Yesterday we saw the US dollar collapse and closed below the lows from back in April of this year. So you can see we put in a lower high last week. Now we’re putting in a lower low this week that’s bearish for the US dollar, which of course is bullish for the Euro. Now with the collapse in the US dollar, we are expecting precious metals to continue to move up. And that’s exactly what happened yesterday for gold and silver.

And that’s also what happened for gold and silver stocks. Whether you’re looking at the GDX or the XGD, they both popped yesterday. Of course gold stocks moving up could certainly help the Canadian market. And the TSX 60 is now back on a buy signal. Outside of the TSX 61 of the stocks that led the TSX higher was Laurentian Bank which looked like this on Tuesday and ended Wednesday looking like this, up over 26% on the day.

Not a stock I follow, but congratulations to anyone who currently owns Laurentian Bank. Looking at what worked yesterday. Well on the TSX, it was materials were the big winners, followed by utilities and that’s what utilities looked like. Big update yesterday. So it’s back where it was four days ago and back in the channel.

So no change in trend. Looking at the US market, did the Dow put in a double top yesterday? Well two bearish reversal signals up at the same level. That is maybe what happened. We’ll just have to wait and see.

The Dow is trading higher in the pre market this morning ahead of those PPI numbers. New high for the S&P 500, new high for the Nasdaq 100 and a new high for semiconductors. What worked in the US? Well it was communication services followed by utilities and then followed by materials. So there’s the communication services making a new high yesterday.

There’s utilities still on a buy signal here, unlike Canadian utilities. But they were up yesterday, not taking out the high from last week. But we’ll have to see if we can do that on Thursday. Now looking at those big cap tech stocks that we love to follow, Amazon is back on a buy signal, but Apple is not. So we need to close above yesterday’s high on Thursday to get Apple back on a buy signal.

Similar situation for Alphabet which traded up to the upper channel line yesterday but did not close above it. Meta on the other hand broke out to a new high on Wednesday. We have Microsoft still on a sell signal that would change on Thursday with a close below above $339.15. Then looking at Nvidia new high for Nvidia. And then we’ve got Shopify back on a buy signal on both sides of the border.

And then last up, Tesla. Very quiet day for Tesla. Still on a buy signal here. No change in trend. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

I wanted to get this out before the PPI numbers come out. We’re also getting jobless claims at 830 this morning, so both of those could certainly add to pre market volatility on Thursday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, July 13, 2023

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Wednesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. I’m sorry I missed you yesterday morning. I started working on the presentation but I just had a massive headache and I couldn’t really see the screen. So hey, I just went back to bed.

So sorry about that. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We’re waiting for CPI numbers to come out at 8:30 this morning and then we’re also going to get Ed Energy inventories at 10:30 this morning. So a couple of things that could add to the volatility of the market. The VIX has pulled back over the past couple of days looking for a close on Wednesday below $14.

We found resistance at 15.63, put in a lower high, which could be bullish for the stock market if we start moving down from here. And of course, 12.50 is a major area of potential support. US dollar index continued to move lower yesterday. That may help the commodities this week. Then we saw a pullback in bond yields on Tuesday and that trend could continue, which could support higher stock prices.

Now the price of gold is traded up to the upper channel line, so certainly a potential of a buy signal on Wednesday. We’ve got gold stocks in the US sitting right on the upper channel line, closing $0.04 above it. So that is a buy signal for the GDX. Still waiting for a buy signal for the Ishares for the Global Gold Index. Then looking at the price of silver sitting right below the upper channel line.

Silver stock, similar situation as you can see. Depending on which way the market goes on Wednesday, we may have a bunch of new buy signals to deal with on Thursday morning. Not in the energy sector though, which is breaking out to a new high. Looking at the price of crude oil, natural gas is back up in the channel looking for a close above 273 to give us a buy signal on Wednesday. There’s Canadian energy stocks, there’s US energy stocks both breaking out above the June highs.

So that looks fairly bullish. Then US Financial is making a new high for this move and it’s a pretty bullish chart, but it does have a lot to do with the big banks or the little banks or the broker dealers. It has much more to do with insurance companies right now. And there’s Prudential making a new high for this move. Compare that chart to Citigroup and you can see who’s beating who.

Looking at Canadian financials and Canadian banks, things are looking pretty neutral right now. The best performing Canadian bank is the TD bank. We are seeing some selling in the insurance sector. We’ve got Sun Life back on a sell signal, joining Manulife, already on a sell signal. Now Apple is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close, joining Amazon, already on a sell signal.

Meta still on a buy signal. No change there no change for Google or Alphabet. Making a new low for this move on Tuesday. We also made a new low for Microsoft on Tuesday. Now Microsoft of course is in that battle to buy Activision Blizzard, which got some positive news yesterday.

So that stock shot higher over 10%. Also taking up Electronic Arts which was up over 5% on the day. Then looking at Nvidia, we’re still treading water up here. Very quiet day on Tuesday. We also had a very quiet day for Tesla.

Still trading in the channel, having an inside day or a day of indecision. Now looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60. We’re on a sell signal right now that did not change. The Dow Diamonds back on a buy signal, joining the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and the Semiconductors all still on buy signals, so no change there. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

It’s very quiet out there ahead of the CPI numbers. And then of course after the CPI numbers on Thursday, we get the PPI numbers. So consumer inflation, then producer inflation. Those two numbers should add to the volatility that we’re going to see in the market this week. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Analyzing the Stock Market Trends and Financial Outlook

Introduction:

Welcome to this week’s edition of Stock Market Timing, where we delve into the recent happenings in the stock market and analyze the financial landscape. In this blog post, we’ll focus on the key highlights from the past week, including bond yields, currency trading, and the performance of major tech stocks. Additionally, we’ll take a closer look at the current state of the financial sector and discuss the future outlook for investors.

Bond Yields and Market Sentiment:

Last week, the stock market was closely influenced by the movement of bond yields, which experienced a significant uptick. Rising bond yields typically lead to a decline in bond prices. Notably, the 30-year bond witnessed a modest decrease of just under two and a half percent. Looking ahead, the upcoming Fed meeting in July is expected to result in a 25 to 50 basis points interest rate hike. While this is already priced into the market, the market’s reaction to the Fed’s statements can often overshadow its actions. Currency traders, in particular, are keeping a watchful eye on the developments, as they have been relatively inactive in June, awaiting potential market shifts in July.

VIX, Tech Stocks, and Market Stability:

The VIX, a volatility index commonly known as the “fear index,” experienced fluctuations last week. After reaching a peak on Thursday, it saw a pullback on Friday but remained on a daily buy signal. From a short-term perspective, this volatility is generally considered negative for stocks. Currently, the VIX seems to be encountering resistance at 15.63, and if it manages to break out and close above this level, the next significant resistance point would be 18.75. However, it is crucial to remember that short-term market movements do not significantly impact long-term investors. For now, the focus remains on whether the VIX can close this week above $17.49, which could potentially raise concerns for long-term investors.

Tech Stocks and Financial Sector Performance:

In recent times, the stock market has witnessed a select few tech stocks leading the way. These large-cap tech giants, including Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, have not only seen a rise in their market capitalization but have also been the most actively traded stocks in the US. The performance of these tech stocks holds substantial influence over the broader market. Therefore, investors should keep a close eye on any signs of weakness, particularly if these stocks close below the previous week’s low. Their potential decline may trigger a cascading effect on the overall market sentiment.

While the tech sector has been on an upward trajectory, the financial sector has faced some challenges. Although the SPDR Financial ETF experienced a higher low in March, indicating a potential bullish trend, it has failed to gain momentum. The insurance sector has shown some positive price action, but overall, the pros haven’t taken control of the market. Similarly, Canadian banks have not generated a weekly buy signal, and the pros have exhibited limited interest. Regional banks in both the US and Canada have also struggled to gain momentum. It appears that the pros are neither aggressively selling nor buying, possibly due to the anticipation of rising interest rates throughout the year.

Conclusion:

In summary, the stock market experienced notable movements last week, with bond yields, currency trading, and the performance of tech stocks taking center stage. The upcoming Fed meeting in July will undoubtedly influence market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring the central bank’s statements. Additionally, the performance of major tech stocks and the stability of the financial sector will play a crucial role in shaping the market’s future trajectory. As always, it is important for investors to remain informed, exercise caution, and make well-informed decisions based on their long-term investment goals.

Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, July 9, 2023

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are very quiet. The market is waiting for employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, and those numbers will certainly add some volatility to the market. Now, the market was again focused on interest rates on Thursday, where we saw another pop in bond yields and bonds continue to move lower this week. So the market is very concerned about the July Fed meeting, and there’s currently just under a 90 % chance of a quarter to a half point rate hike in July. That’s what the market is anticipating right now. We got a big pop in the VIX yesterday, so it is back on a buy signal that, of course, can be negative for stocks. We closed right at the first price target, looking for a move up to 18.75, and then we’ll look to see if we can challenge the recent highs from the month of May. Looking at what worked yesterday and what didn’t work, well, nothing worked in the Canadian market. Biggest loser was health care followed by energy, followed by info tech.

In the US, info tech actually lost the least amount. Those big cap tech stocks are still holding the market up. Biggest loser in the US on Thursday was the energy sector. We did see the QQQ’s pull back into the channel. They were down just a little over three quarters of a %. On Friday, we’re looking for a close below 363.47 to give us a sell signal. Semiccondctors gapped lower yesterday, sitting right on the lower channel line. So we’re looking for a close below 214.09 on Friday to give us a sell signal for the chip sector. Lots of areas of the technology sector have rolled over, whether you’re looking at robotics or AI, they have rolled over already. We’re just waiting for those big cap tech stocks that the market likes to follow to roll over, and that has has not happened yet. Canadian InfoTech is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. We’re looking at the DOW Diamond’s back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. S&P 500, still looking for a close below 436.65 on Friday to give us a sell signal. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we closed one penny below the lower channel line yesterday.

So we are technically back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Of course, the biggest loser in the Canadian market on Thursday was the energy sector. Looking at the iShares for the energy sector, still looking for a close below $14.19 on Friday. Moving on, let’s take a look at the TSX most active. I’m going to use the same list that we used yesterday morning, which is I think more valuable for training purposes. TD Bank sold off yesterday. It came down to the upper channel line while Bank of Nova Scotia zoomed right past the lower channel line and is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Looking at TC Energy, we needed a close below 52.35. We closed at 52.39, so just five cents away from a sell signal. We’ve got Enbridge back on a sell signal. We’ve got Canadian Natural Resources back on a sell signal. No change for HUT 8. A slight light pull back there after making a new high. Then looking at Manulife, we are back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Remember, we were watching Manulife to see if it would hold 25. Once that broke, we looked for a move down to the next line.

We turned around, came back up. What was previously support is now acting as resistance. It’ll be interesting to see if the market will hold the low from a couple of weeks ago. Looking at Crescent Point, we need a close on Friday below $8.67. No change there. Algonquin Power looking for a close below $10.80 on Friday. Then Osisko Gold, which was the big loser on the previous day, actually closed higher on the day, having an inside day or a day of indecision. Then looking at a couple of other big cap gold stocks that we looked at yesterday, we’ve got Barrick, we closed at 21.70. We were looking for a close below 21.77. So we are back on a sell signal as is Agnico Eagle. Moving on to the US most active, starting off with Tesla. Small pull back there, no change in trend, of course. We saw a new high for Rivian. The top of our projected trading range was 21.88, got as high as 21.77 yesterday. And of course, there’s no guarantee that the top of our projected trading range is going to hold us back. Then we’ve got NIO pulling back into the channel, a close below 918 on Friday would give us a sell signal.

No change in trend for Carnival, small pullback yesterday, closing just above the previous day’s low. Then looking at Lucid, when you compare this chart to this chart, of course, this one’s a little weaker and it looks like we might be putting in a lower high. We ran up, filled the open gap and have started to pull back. Looking looking for a close below 6.37 on Friday. Then for pull back to the upper channel line, looking for a close below 14.52. Then we’ve got AMD still on a cell signal, no change there. Close above 115.48 would give us a buy signal on Friday. Then Apple pulling back intra day, but then actually closing higher on the day. So looking for a close below 187.75 on Friday to give us a sell signal. Once Apple and Tesla go, then the rest of the market is going to sell off sharply. That hasn’t happened yet. Then we’re looking at a marathon, a small pullback there after making a new high. Then we’ve got Palantir trading in the channel looking for a close below 14.74 on Friday. Let’s finish off today’s presentation looking at commodities. Crude oil was down slightly yesterday.

It is up slightly in the premarket this morning. Gasoline was up yesterday. Natural gas sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal looking for a close below 7.04. We closed at 7.04. Natural gas is trading up slightly in the premarket. Then the GLD was down yesterday looking for a close above 179.12 on Friday to give us a buy signal. No change for Palladian or for Platinum on Thursday. Then silver slipped and we are looking for a close below 20.84. We closed at 20.83. The SLV back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Waiting for those employment numbers to come out at 8 30, and then we should expect volatility to expand in the premarket. Have a great day and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, July 7, 2023

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are below fair value. Dow futures currently down 130 points. At the same time, we do have commodities trading higher on Thursday morning. Now we do have some employment numbers coming out this morning at 830.

That could add to the pre market volatility. Yesterday was a fairly quiet day for the market. It is a holiday shortened week. A lot of people are off at the moment. I guess the biggest news item from Wednesday’s trading action was interest rates.

Bond yields continued to move higher, making a new high for this move. The VIX is still on a sell signal that’s supportive for higher stock prices. That would change on Thursday with a close above $14.15. Small pullback in the Dow yesterday, the SP 500, the Nasdaq. Bigger pullback for the Chip sector down over 2%.

Still on a buy signal here. That would change on Thursday with a close below 213 78, and a small pullback, a little over half a percent for the TSX. Looking at the most actively traded US. Stocks from Wednesday’s trading action, we won’t see any trend changes here. Tesla had a fairly quiet trading day.

Inside day for Tesla, new high for Rivian on Wednesday, inside day for Neo. Carnival made a new high on Wednesday. And then we had a new high for Lucid, filling the open gap from back in late May. We’ll have to see if we can push through that. Then looking at Ford new closing high. Advanced Micro Devices trading in the channel, looking for a close above 115.63 on Thursday to give us a buy signal.

Small pullback for Apple, still trading above the upper channel line. Marathon digital new high on Wednesday. Then we’ve got Palantir, which is back on a buy signal. Things would change for Palantir on Thursday with a close below 1470. Next up, let’s take a look at the TSX most actives from Wednesday’s trading action.

Again, no trend changes here. We had a small pullback for the TD Bank, a bigger pullback for the Bank of Nova Scotia. Then we’ve got TC Energy back in the channel. We get a new sell signal for TC Energy with a close below 52 31 on Thursday. Enbridge, we’re looking for a close below 48 57.

Canadian Natural Resources still trading, closing above the upper channel line, Hut 8. Making a new closing high for this move. Then we’ve got Manualife trading back in the channel. Things would change for Manualife on Thursday with a close below 24.60. Then we had an inside day for Crescent Point.

We’ve got Algonquin Power on a buy signal right now. Things would change for Algonquin Power with a close below 10.77 on Thursday. Then Osisko , which was the biggest losing stock on the TSX yesterday, came down sharply, closed down nearly 10% on the day. So some surprising news there that shocked investors looking at a couple of other gold stocks. So we’ve got Barrack and Igniko Eagle still on buy signals here.

Things would change for Barrick on Thursday with a close below 21.74. And for Agnico Eagle, we’re looking for a close below 64.60 in the pre market this morning. We’ve got gold trading up $4. But if the stock market wants to roll over, that doesn’t guarantee that gold stocks will go higher. Speaking of gold, let’s take a look at commodities.

We had crude oil higher yesterday. Remember, we’re trying to give crude oil a lot more room than normal. The pros and the public still intertwined. So no really new interest in crude oil at the moment. It is trading higher in the pre market this morning.

Gasoline still on a buy signal, no change there. Natural gas still on a buy signal as well, but that would change on Thursday with a close below 704. We’ve got the GLD still on a sell signal that would change on Thursday with a close above 179.28, which would join silver already on a buy signal. No change in trend for palladium or platinum. And there’s Silver back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close.

And we’ve got a nice big gap above us that we could possibly fill. Okay, that is all for Thursday morning’s presentation. Not a lot of new signals from Wednesday’s trading action. Looks like Volatility may start to expand this morning after those employment numbers come out at 830. Have a great day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, July 6, 2023

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Today is Tuesday, July fourth. US markets are closed, Canadian markets are open. Canadian markets were closed yesterday. US markets were open for a half day. I was going to do an update tonight, but I’m really going to leave it. There isn’t too much we can gain from what’s happened in the markets yesterday and today, so we won’t do an update tonight. We’ll do one on Wednesday night and that’ll get everybody back up to date with the markets back open on Wednesday. I guess the biggest thing that happened in the month of June was Apple’s valuation got up over three trillion for the first time. Apple doing incredibly well at the moment. We are looking for our next price target, which is up there at 200. We haven’t broken away from 187.50 just yet, but it is looking like the market wants to go there. If we can punch through 200, then 212.50, 225 come into play. Now, if there is a pullback during the summer, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the market to try to find support at 175. If that were to start to break, that would be a negative sign for the overall market.

And if you look two lines down from 175, that takes you back down to 150. And then if we start to head two lines lower than that, you’ve got 137.50 and 125 come into play. But right now, as of July fourth, we are still looking higher for Apple. And the first sign that something new is happening is a close below the previous week’s low. And we’re certainly not seeing that right now. Next up, let’s take a look at the VIX or the Fear Index. And it is still on a weekly sell signal, and that, of course, is supportive for higher stock prices. Things would change for our weekly VIX chart if we were to close above $17.91 this coming Friday. So since late March, the market has basically been in a no fear situation looking at the weekly charts. And that is supportive for higher stock prices. It doesn’t guarantee that everything is going to go up. There’s different sectors in the market that have not done well in 2023. But what it does tell us when the VIX is on a weekly sell signal is that investors are still willing to look for opportunities.

So if they get kicked out of one stock, they’re willing to go find another stock. If they’re kicked out of a sector or an ETF, they’re willing to go look for another sector, another ETF. They’re willing to buy the dip. When the VIX turns around and generates a weekly Buy signal, we know that that tone of the market has started to change and investors are less likely to look for new opportunities at that moment. They’re less likely to buy the dip once the VIX gets on a weekly buy signal. Now, the same is true on a daily chart, but of course, a shorter term time frame. And we went through the whole month of June with the VIX on a sell signal. And that, of course, is supportive for higher stock prices. I was looking for a more significant pullback in the month of June, and we did not get that at all. And you can see the VIX was on a sell signal through the whole month. And so things would change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close above $14.23. Now, reviewing the month of June, the TSX was up just under 3 %, the DOW was up a little over 4.5 %, and then we get the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up close to 6.5 % for the month.

The big winners in North America were the US Transports and US Homebuilders. Those were the big winners in North America. What didn’t work? Well, Canadian Marijuana stocks were down nearly 4.5 %, and then we had Silver miners down over 3.5 % for the for the month. Now, seasonality. This is a seasonality chart of the Nasdaq. And for the major indices, they’re all fairly similar. I was expecting a more significant pullback in the month of June. We didn’t get that. We did get the run up into the end of the month. And historically, we do get a summer rally during the month of July. If we go back over the past few years, you can see there’s July in the middle here. Here’s the month of July for 2018, for 2019, for 2020, for 2021, we had a dip, but by the end of the month, we were still trading higher. And then in 2022, that was last year, we did get a couple of pullbacks in the month of July right at the start and then into the second week. But then from there on, we kept moving higher. So the seasonality for the month of July is historically very bullish.

And we’re coming in on a very bullish quarter end, month end. And so it’d be interesting to see how things end this week. Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, and we’re still looking at weekly charts here, our next target is 3,125, which is a very important target because that’s where we found resistance several times during 2023. Then looking at the DOW Diamond’s, we’ve driven up to the 343.75 level. We closed at 343.85 on Friday. And of course, this level has been holding us in check for the past year. If we can start breaking out above the highs from last fall, then we’re looking for a move up to 359.38 as our next possible target. The SPY is starting to break out above the 437.50 level, but it hasn’t broken away from it just yet. Our next target is 453.13 on the weekly charts. Then the Nasdaq has been staring at 375 for a few weeks now. If we can take out 375, then 406.25 comes into play. Then looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, 187.50, we closed at 187.27 on Friday, so that area of resistance is still working.

If we can start breaking out above that, then $200 certainly comes into play. That is a big round number. As you look, you can see several times over the past year where we’ve run into the $200 level and reversed. Let’s finish off today’s presentation looking at commodity prices. Crude oil was up on the week, inside week for crude oil, looking for a close this coming Friday above 73.12. Looking at natural gas, we’re just down five cents on the week. Then looking at the price of copper, we are down 1.47 % on the week. So still on a weekly sell signal, no change there. Gold bounced off $1,900 and end of the week just down 20 cents. So maybe we’ll find support at 1900. We’ll just have to see. Of course, the first sign of something new is if we close above the previous week’s high and then inside week for the price of silver. Now we’re halfway through 2023 and the stock market is still dealing with the same themes it was dealing with at the start of the year, whether that’s central banks fighting inflation by raising interest rates that is still going on around the world.

We’re also watching countries fall into recession. It hasn’t happened in North America yet, but it’ll probably happen at some point in the not so distant future. And then, of course, we’re still watching China implode internally, and that has not had much effect on the stock markets either. So it’s not about what’s going on, it’s about how the market reacts to what’s going on. And that’s why we talk about Following The Money and not following the news or people’s projections of what could happen in the future. We’re just here to follow the money and to fight our way through all of that market noise that is going on. Because if you had a fall of those themes, which were all very bearish, you certainly wouldn’t be participating in the market today. Okay, that is all for today’s presentation. I was going to do an update on Tuesday night, and then I thought better of it. We don’t need to deal with what’s happened on Monday or Tuesday. Markets are thinly traded. The pros are on holidays at the moment. Some of them will be coming back tomorrow. I’m sure some of them are taking the whole week off, but we’ll wait until we get Wednesday’s data.

We’ll print that on Wednesday night and we’ll make decisions on what to do next based on Wednesday night’s data. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Next time I’m donating blood is going to be tomorrow morning at 10 AM at Yonge & Bloor. So if you’re in the neighborhood, stop by, say hello, go for a coffee. Otherwise, have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Good morning everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value, once again being led higher by the Nasdaq. Commodities are mixed while the energies are higher. Gold is lower on Friday morning.

Well, here we are. We finally arrived to month end, quarter end, and of course we’ve got the holidays next week. And that of course put a bullish spin on the market. And of course, it doesn’t guarantee success. It certainly helps alleviate any downward pressure on the market.

If there is bad news that the market wants to take as bad news, remember, just because there’s good news doesn’t mean the market goes up. And there’s no guarantee that with bad news the market goes down. Now, the VIX is still on a sell signal that’s supportive for higher stock prices. Looking for a breakout above 14.33 to change things on Friday. So far, it does not look like that’s going to happen.

Now, I often take a look at the VIX ETFs just to make sure that nobody’s trying to front run the market. Sometimes what you’ll see is ETF traders can go in and buy the VIX ahead of the VIX moving higher and the markets moving lower. We’re not seeing anything like that on coming into Friday morning. Now, the Dow diamonds ended Thursday on a buy signal. They have an open gap just above them there that could act as resistance.

Similar situation for the S&P 500 is back on a buy signal. The volume, which of course coming into a holiday week is going to start to fall. Yesterday, the volume for the S&P 500 ETF was down 25% off its average volume. So you can see that traders are starting to leave for a holiday week and we expect next week to be extremely quiet. Now the Nasdaq is not back on a buy signal.

So far, the biggest loser yesterday on the Nasdaq 100 was Micron. At the same time we saw chips move higher. So Micron moving against the pack on Thursday. Then the iShares for the TSx 60 are on the second day of a buy signal. We’re seeing money come back into the financials and the energy sector.

We saw some money come back into gold yesterday with Kinross. There’s been a lot of love for Kinross lately, even though it’s been on a sell signal. This certainly hasn’t fallen as much as a lot of the other gold stocks such as Barrick. Barrick is sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal. So any higher close on Friday would give us a buy signal.

We do have gold trading lower in the pre market. That’s no guarantee that gold stocks are going to trade lower on Friday. Now, until the big cap tech stocks start to break down, the market is going to continue to have a bullish bias to it. And so there’s Apple making a new high yesterday we saw Amazon pull back so a close below 126.04 would give us a sell signal on Friday. We still have Microsoft on a short term sell signal.

Of course, longer term money has not exited Microsoft just yet. We have Nvidia on a short term sell signal. Yesterday was inside day and did trade slightly lower on the day. Less than 1%. Nvidia is still on a midterm buy signal.

So more conservative money has not exited Nvidia just yet. And we still have Tesla on a sell signal. From what we were seeing in the pre market yesterday, I thought Tesla would end the day on a buy signal. That did not happen. When it started to come down it did give us a midterm sell signal which is still in play.

That has not changed. So some longer term money has exited Tesla. We do have a nice uptrend line there and if that breaks then we would look for a move down to $200 for Tesla. Let’s finish off with a quick look at commodities and no trend changes from Thursday’s trading action. Yes, crude oil traded higher, gasoline traded higher and natural gas traded higher and that’s one of the reasons energy stocks moved up on Thursday.

No joy for the GLD. It came off its intraday lows and closed slightly lower on the day. Inside day for palladium. A lower new low for platinum on Thursday. And we saw a small pullback for the price of silver holding the low from last week.

Okay folks, that is all for Friday’s presentation. Not expecting a lot to happen on Friday. Have a great Canada Day long weekend and if you’re in the US, of course you’re probably going to make this weekend into a long weekend anyways, so have a great time, be safe and next time you’ll hear my voice is sometime over the long weekend. I haven’t been given my weekend scheduled yet so I don’t know exactly when I’m going to be back in front of the computer.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, June 30, 2023

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are higher. DOW futures up about 100 points. We do have commodities mixed with the energies higher while the metals are lower on Thursday morning. I want to start off today’s presentation saying thank you to everyone who signed up for our Blood Donor Rewards program. If you haven’t heard back from us, please send us a note today and we’ll make sure you get set up. We have had some problems sending emails to Gmail accounts this week. So if you’ve got a Gmail account, that’s one of the reasons you may not have heard from us. But yeah, if you haven’t heard from us, please ping us today. Let us know and we’ll take care of that right away. And again, thank you very much for everyone who signed up for our Blood Donor Rewards program so far. Now, we are coming up to month and quarter end and a couple of holidays, and that usually gives the market a bullish bias. If we were going to see some selling this week, we would have assumed it would have been very muted.

And that’s pretty well how things turned out as the market continues to move higher here and the VIX is still on a sell signal. So options traders are not spooked by anything at the moment and we’re looking for things to change on Thursday if we see a close on the VIX above $14.40. We have seen some weakness in the DOW. It is on a sell signal right now. Yesterday was an inside day. We do have the S&P 500 trading right up to the upper channel line, the Nasdaq 100 trading right up to the upper channel line, and the Nasdaq composite. The Russell has a little ways to go but could certainly generate a buy signal on Thursday if we continue to move higher throughout the day. The stocks index pulled back yesterday with an inside day, so no fall through to the upside after that big move up on Tuesday. Now, what worked yesterday in the US market was the energy sector followed by consumer communication services followed by consumer discretionary. Energy stocks traded right up to the upper channel line yesterday. The biggest winner in that sector on the S&P 500 was Williams Companies, making a new high for this move.

Then looking at communication services, we’re back on a buy signal here. The big winner yesterday was Dish Network trading up and generated a buy signal. It is certainly could be a bullish sign that we’re holding support here. We didn’t make a lower low, but last time we popped, we didn’t get too far. Your world is not from here up to way up at the top left hand corner of the screen. Your world is much muted, but certainly you could make some money trading back up to the recent highs. Then looking at Consumer Discretionary. Now, this is odd. If the Fed is still trying to raise interest rates and slow the economy down, Consumer Discretionary shouldn’t be winning. Consumer Staples should be winning, but that’s not what’s going on right now. Nobody’s on recession watch anymore, apparently. The big winner in consumer discretionary yesterday was Carnival cruises, and all the cruise lines did very well. Norwegian, close follow up, and then Royal Caribbean, all the cruise lines are doing very well at the moment. Now, looking at big cap stocks, big cap technology stocks. We’ve got Apple making a new high yesterday. We saw a small pullback in Amazon.

Then looking at Meta, very quiet day on Wednesday. We’ve got Microsoft trading in the channel. So a close above $338.84 would give us a buy signal on Thursday. Then looking at Netflix, we need to close above 430.92. We closed at 428.40. So we’ve just got a little ways to go to get a buy signal for Netflix. Then an inside day yesterday for NVIDIA, still on a sell signal. Then Shopify trading right up to the upper… Or closing right up at the upper channel line yesterday. Looking at Shopify on the TSX, 87.50 still acting as resistance. If we can start breaking out above 87.50, then 93.75 and $100 comes into play on Shopify trading on the TSX. Then looking at Tesla, Tesla trading up to the upper channel line yesterday. We are trading higher in the pre market this morning, so a close above 259.31 would give us a buy signal on Thursday. Moving on to the Canadian market. We’ve got the TSX just closing above the upper channel line. Similar situation for the TSX 60. Then we’re looking at midcap still in the channel. We’ve got small caps trading below the lower channel line, and we had another nice big update for the venture exchange.

What worked yesterday? Well, the big leader was Health Care followed by Consumer Staples and then infotec. Now, health care is a very small part of the Canadian stock market, so we do have the health care index back on a buy signal. Yesterday’s big winner was Bosh in percentage terms. But again, not a lot of stocks in this sector. And last year, we would have probably been highlighting some cannabis stock, but those days have come and gone. Canadian Consumer Staples had a nice big pop yesterday. So again, if we’re heading for a recession, which apparently we’re not according to the market, consumer staples should certainly be outperforming Consumer Discretionary, but that’s not the case at the moment. So the big winner in consumer staples was Circle K trading right up to resistance at 68.75. Now, I don’t like chasing stocks that pop. When they pop like this, it means everyone was shocked by the news. Nobody was on the right side of this trade going into it. But people have been buying the dips in this stock for quite a while now. Now, I wouldn’t be attracted to this stock because the average true range is so low.

So it’s not really a tradable stock. If you’re looking at this stock, it’s more of something to put in your portfolio on a longer term basis than trading it short term. So you might want to be looking at the weekly charts if this is a stock that you want to follow. Looking at energy stocks, they did trade up yesterday, not enough to give us a buy signal. Financial services, on the other hand, back on a buy signal. Bank stocks looking for a slightly higher move here. We’re just less than a dollar away from generating a buy signal on Thursday. What didn’t work yesterday? Gold stocks continued to be on a sell signal here, trying to hold support at 270 on the TSX Global Gold Index. Now, oddly enough, the biggest loser on the TSX yesterday was Nova Gold, which was down over 12 % on the day coming into yesterday’s trading action already on a sell signal. It has been for a while. Let’s finish off today’s presentation taking a look at commodities and we’ll use the big US commodity ETFs. The USO moved up yesterday at close above 63.46 would give us a buy signal.

We talked about the crude oil market yesterday and how I would give it a little more room than just taking the next buy signal. Gasoline moved up yesterday, trading up to the upper channel line. So a close above yesterday’s high would give us another new buy signal. And unfortunately, natural gas rolled over yesterday. Still on a buy signal here that would change on Thursday with a close below 6.91. It was unchanged last time I looked at natural gas. So 7.81 acting as resistance as expected. Hopefully, we can turn around here and continue to move higher, but that’s not what happened on Wednesday. Looking at the GLD, we had a new low for the GLD yesterday, new low for Palladian, new low for Platinum yesterday, and then last up, we’re looking at silver. Silver is still close to the lower channel line, a close above 2134 on Thursday would give us a buy signal for the SLV. From what we’re seeing in the premarket this morning, not expecting that to happen. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation and that’s all from me for Thursday morning. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, June 29, 2023

Morning, everyone. Welcome to Wednesday morning. Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value. Commodities are mixed with the energies higher while gold is lower on Wednesday morning. Well, we are coming up to month end, quarter end, and a long weekend, and all of those usually have a bullish bias to them. So even if there’s bad news over the next couple of days, I don’t expect to see any aggressive selling this week. When we look at the seasonality chart, and typically we get selling in June, which we did in the Canadian market, not so much in the US market, which is a little concerning. Then in July, we usually get a summer rally. So we’ll have to see how that works out this year. But the US market is certainly not in sync with the seasonalities in 2023. Now, the TSX had a nice big up day yesterday. Not enough to give us a buy signal. We are trading a little lower in the premarket this morning than we see that the TSX 60 also moved up into the channel. When we take the TSX 60 out of the TSX, you’re left with the midcap stocks and they traded up to the bottom of an open gap yesterday.

So that could hold us in check. Then we had a small gain for small caps and a nicer gain for the venture exchange trading up into the channel. So there was some interest in microcap stocks on Tuesday. Now, if we look at what worked on Tuesday, we had consumer discretionary followed by infotec, followed by real estate. What didn’t work was energy. Not by much, though. We had an inside day for energy stocks, then materials, and consumer staples. So consumer discretionary in, consumer staples out. So consumer discretionary is back on a buy signal. In percentage terms, the big winner yesterday was Sleep Country. In market cap terms, it was Magna. Not enough to give us a buy signal, but trading up into the channel. Then looking at InfoTech, it was really the Bitcoin stocks that were the big winners yesterday. Hut 8 and Bitfarms were the big winners in percentage terms. You can see Bitfarms had an inside day on Tuesday. Then looking at real estate, the index moved up to the lower channel line. The big winner in percentage terms was Primaris, then followed by Firstcap. So as you can see, Primaris back on a buy signal.

I’d be waiting to see if it could take out the high from a couple of weeks ago. Then looking at energy stocks, had an inside day yesterday. We saw TC Energy pulled back. We saw a little bit of selling in Suncor, but an inside day and a little bit of selling in Canadian Natural Resources. Again, having an inside day or a day of indecision. Then looking at gold stocks, looks like we’re holding the low from four days ago. We had the Barrick trade slightly higher. A close above 22.07 on Wednesday would give us a buy signal. Not expecting to see that. B2 Gold was down yesterday. Kinross was also lower on the day. Then looking at financials, a big up move yesterday for financials. Looking for a close above 351.12. We close at 350. 67. We could certainly see a buy signal for financials and a buy signal in bank stocks. We do have the TD Bank back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. No joy yet for CIBC and certainly no joy for Manulife, both higher on the day. Let’s finish off looking at commodity prices. And copper has been on a sell signal for the last two days.

That, of course, is not helpful for the overall mining sector. Gold was down $10 yesterday. It’s down $7 and changed this morning. So starting to break away from $1937.50, you can expect psychological support at $1900. Then our next mathematical target is $1875. And if you look back to the month of February and March, you can see we traded below that. Those lows could certainly be a legitimate target to the downside and a potential area of support. You can also see that the pros have had no interest in gold since the middle of May. That has not changed. They did have a little bit of interest in the price of silver, and so silver has been holding up better. We are looking at silver closing at the lower channel line. A close above 23.75 would give us a buy signal on Wednesday. Not expecting that to happen. Here’s a quick little tutorial. Historically, silver has been much more volatile than the price of gold. One of the reasons, of course, is silver is only trading in the 20s where gold is trading up near $2,000. Now, when you look at the average true range of silver, it’s currently at 2.78 %.

When you compare that to the price of gold, the average true range for gold is currently at 1.26 %, so less than half of the volatility of silver. If this was a stock, I’d certainly tell you not to consider trading it because there’s not enough volatility to make money compared to other options that you have in the stock market. But we’re not looking at a stock, we’re looking at a futures contract. And when you’re trading futures contracts, you get a lot more bang for your buck with your margin than you do in the stock market. So there’s a lot more risk reward in trading actual futures contracts than there is in the stock market. And remember, those two words are equal. Risk and reward are much greater trading futures contracts. And so that’s why you can trade something that has an average true range of only 1.26 %. It’s like being a currency trader. When you’re trading currencies, the margin and the leverage in currencies is much higher than the stock market. Now, when you look at currency ETFs, they’re not worth considering as a trading option. But when you look at the currency futures contracts, they have a lot more leverage and they are certainly worth trading.

And they’re probably one of the biggest trading instruments in the world. Now, looking at the price of lumber, somebody was asking me about the price of lumber. Yeah, we’re making new lows here. If we were going to get a buy signal here, then move up to 400 would certainly be a legitimate target to the upside. Now looking at the energy sector, we’ve got crude oil working its way into a nice little triangle there. So looking for a breakout or a breakdown. Right now, it looks like we’re going to see a breakdown and probably a retest of the low from early May. It’s been very sloppy trading over the last month and you can tell the pros in the public are intertwined. Nobody really wants to make much of a commitment in the crude oil sector at the moment. You probably want to give it more breathing room. Use the mid term chart instead of the right side chart and just give it more room to breathe because nobody knows which way they want the market to go at the present time. Now, compare that to natural gas. When we look at the mid term chart for natural gas, we are starting to see some bullish signs here, which is probably a good thing.

In 2023, natural gas hasn’t done much. Certainly, it has had a lot of volatility in a much smaller range than it has over the past few years. So we are looking for a nice big up move in natural gas. Pros are currently in control, so we’re looking to see if we can continue to move higher from here. Okay, folks, that is all for Wednesday morning. Have a great day. Stay out of the smoke. It’s pretty smoky out there this morning. Nice little haze over the city and you can certainly smell it. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. Enjoy the day and we’ll talk to you again soon.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, June 28, 2023

• Weakness expected this week but not aggressive selling.
• Bullish bias expected due to month-end, quarter-end, and holidays.
• VIX close above $14.52 needed for buy signal.
• Dow down for six days due to Walgreens, already on a sell signal.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq on sell signals as of Monday’s close.
• Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft back on sell signals.
• Apple still on buy signal while Amazon hit next price target.
• Commodity prices for crude oil and gasoline are sloppy.
• Natural gas hit next price target, gold and silver quiet