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Godo Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value. Commodities are mixed with crude oil lower while gold is higher on Wednesday morning. There is a lot of individual stock action happening this morning as the market reacts to a whole slew of earnings. But the main focus today, of course, is going to be the Fed. The market believes that the Fed is going to raise by 25 basis points. If they do anything but that, there’s going to be extra volatility this afternoon. We always expect volatility to expand after 2 PM on Fed Day, and we certainly believe that’s going to be the case today. Looking at the fear index, we’ve been treading water for the past couple of days in the channel that is neutral. We are still technically on a sell signal which is supportive for higher stock prices. That could change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close above $14.20. If we want the market to continue to move higher, we need the VIX to start breaking down below 13.55. Now, the media is still focused on the great run that the DOW is having at the moment.

They’d probably be better off looking at the DOW Transports, which have had an amazing run since the start of June. S&p 500 closed slightly higher yesterday. The Nasdaq closed slightly higher. The Nasdaq is still trading in the channel. So there’s a technical mathematical possibility of a sell signal on Wednesday. Then looking at the Russell 2000, still trading above the upper channel line, and the Semiconnectors are looking very similar to the overall Nasdaq. Then we see gold and silver stocks moved up nicely on Tuesday, and we’ve got gold continuing to trade higher on Wednesday morning. We’ll take a look at that a little later in the presentation. Inside day for US Financials, we saw the US Bank stocks make a new high before reversing. We saw our regional banks make a new high before reversing. A lot of that volatility had to do with a couple of regional bank stocks. Pacwest was down over 27 % on Tuesday. So you come in this morning, you check what’s going on in the premarket, you know that technically we’re back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. But you look at the premarket activity and guess what?

We’re up nearly 30 % in the premarket. So you can waive off that sell signal or you can take that sell signal and sell it into this up move that we’re seeing in the premarket, which doesn’t take out Monday’s high. It just brings us back to where we were trading on Monday. Then the other stock in this equation is Banc of California. It was up over 7 % yesterday. Big up move for this stock. If you were trading this stock, if you were coming into yesterday’s trading action and you were long this stock, if you’ve ever been to, had any of our training sessions here, we would have had orders in at 14.06 and 15.63, and both of those would have got filled yesterday. So you would have got a filled up at 15.63. And of course, the stock came back and closed at 14.62. So congratulations to anyone trading Bank of California. Looking at those big cap technology stocks, we expect some trend changes from today’s activity. There’s lots going on in the pre market. There’s a possibility of a new buy signal for Alphabet on Wednesday. Amazon is trading lower in the premarket, so not expecting a trend change there.

Apple is fairly quiet this morning. Had an inside day on Tuesday, and of course, an inside day is a day of indecision, a pause day, and they certainly are pausing ahead of the Fed meeting. Then we’ve got Meta trading below the lower channel line. It traded higher yesterday, but still on a sell signal. We’ve got Microsoft trading up to the upper channel line on Tuesday. It is down in the premarket this morning, so not expecting a buy signal on Wednesday. We’ve got Netflix, very quiet trading on Tuesday, still on a sell signal here, so no change in trend. Then NVIDIA looking just like the SOX Index itself, trading up to the upper channel line, so possibility of a buy signal. And then we’ve got Tesla still on a sell signal, no change there. Looking at crypto, we still have both Bitcoin and Ethereum on sell signals. Yesterday was an inside day. So a lot of the markets were pausing on Tuesday ahead of the Fed meeting. And then the two big cap crypto stocks that we have in our database, Coinbase, still on a buy signal that would change on Wednesday with a close below 95.

And then we’ve got Marathon on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s closing just below the lower channel line. Let’s finish off looking at commodities. And when we look at the GLD, we’re still on a buy signal here trading higher. We’ve got Palladian, we’ve got Platinum, and we’ve got Silver all still on buy signals. That’s helping the overall mining sector. Looking at gold stocks, still on a buy signal for the GDX. Silver stocks, still on a buy signal for the SLV. Then moving over to the energy sector. Unfortunately, this doesn’t look good for the inflation picture, which, of course, the Fed is focused on fighting. There’s crude oil making a new high for this move. Little pullback there inside day for a gas lean ahead of the Fed meeting. And then natural gas trading higher on Tuesday. Then looking at the stocks themselves, the big cap energy stocks were all up yesterday. Oil and gas equipment makers making a new high for this move. And then we had a new high for oil and gas explorers on Tuesday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. As I mentioned, there’s a lot of individual stock activity in the premarket this morning.

The overall tone is still slightly to the downside. Of course, everybody’s sitting on their hands waiting for the Fed meeting this afternoon. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice, is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with a midweek look at the Canadian stock market. Well, today’s all about the Fed. We are expecting a 25 basis point rate hike. If the Fed deviates from that at all, that could spark some market excitement. The VIX has been treading water for the past couple of days in anticipation of the Fed meeting. We need to close above 14.20 to tell us the market wants to go bearish. If we start closing below 13.55, that would be a sign that the market wants to continue to move higher. Now, the TSX and the TSX 60 had a small pullback yesterday. We are up at resistance. If we can take out the April highs, then we can look two lines up to a new playing field. The TSX 60 has not recovered as much as the TSX itself. That’s probably has a lot to do with the banking sector. So here we are up at 1234.38. We closed just below that yesterday. If we can take out the recent highs from two days ago, then we’re looking for a move up to 1250.

Now, while the TSX and the TSX 60 pulled back on Tuesday, midcap, smallcap, and microcap stocks were all higher on the day. Now, copper was up nicely yesterday, helped put a bid into the mining sector and HudBay led the mining sector higher up over 8 % on the day. We also had a big up day for Ero Copper, up over 4 % on the day. Moving on to the energy sector, a new high for the energy sector. On Tuesday, we saw crude oil continue to move higher. Crude oil is pulling back a little. We are at resistance of 75 38. If we can break out above that, then 81.25 comes into play. We’ve got natural gas stuck at resistance. Our price target is 2.73. We closed at 2.74 yesterday. If we can take out the at the June high, then 3.13 will come into play. Then looking at a couple of energy stocks, we got Crescent Point making a new high on Tuesday, new high for Canadian Natural Resources while Baytex pulled back slightly, having an inside day, so a day of indecision. Then moving on to the gold sector, fairly quiet. We’re in the channel, still on a buy signal here.

The price of gold still trading in the channel. It is up in the premarket this morning as is the price of silver. So both commodities are still on buy signals here. Looking at B2Gold, the most actively traded gold stock on the TSX on Tuesday, it is trading back in the channel. So a close above $4.88 would give us a buy signal on Wednesday. Barrick is still on a buy signal, and we also have Kinross still on a buy signal. Then looking at the financials, and this is the sector that probably led the market lower on Tuesday, you can see the new early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. And you can see on the right side chart that we did close below the previous day’s low. So that is bearish. Didn’t have a lot to do with the major insurance companies. Manulife was up. Sun Life was up on Tuesday. Had a lot more to do with bank stocks. BMOwas down on the day, did not close below the previous day’s low as Bank of Nova Scotia certainly did. Down 2.61 % on the day, which is a big move for a bank.

And we are back on a sell signal. We also saw weakness in Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, which was down over 1 % back in the channel. So close below $56.94 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal. We had an inside day for the National Bank, basically closing unchanged just up two pennies on the day. Then looking at the Royal Bank, yes, we pulled back, did not close below the previous day’s low unlike the TD Bank trading rating down to the upper channel line. So a close on Wednesday below $83.93 would give us a sell signal for the TD Bank. Then looking at the InfoTech Index, still on a buy signal here, but barely Shopify not helping back on a sell signal right now joining BlackBerry and Lightspeed already on sell signals. What’s working? Well, we’ve got Celestica still on a buy signal, closing higher on the day. We saw Constellation Software close slightly higher on the day and a big update for Coveo up over 6 % on the day, making a new high for this move. And last up, we had Open Text also higher on the day, up a little over 2 %, making a new high for this move heading towards the highs from early June.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Thank you very much for your time and attention. And of course, if you have any questions, just reply to this email and we’ll be happy to answer them as quickly as possible. Enjoy the rest of your day. I’ll be back a little later to look at the US stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are very quiet out there. We don’t expect that to last too long. This is going to be a rather news intensive week. We’ve got the Fed meeting, we’ve got economic numbers coming out, and we have lots of earnings, so we are expecting a lot of price volatility. That is not to be confused with the fear index or the VIX. The VIX shows us how much investors are willing to pay to hedge their investments. Right now, that indicator is still on a sell signal, which is supportive for higher stock prices. That could change on Tuesday if we close above $14.23. You can see for the past month or so that the pros in the public have been intertwined. So we’ve been treading water for a while now. If we look at the Fly Paper channel, you can see it’s continuing to move lower here. And we know from experience that the market is not going to get overly concerned if we continue to play under the Fly Paper channel. It’s when we start breaking out above it that things are going to get exciting.

Now, you’ve probably seen this headline that the DOW is on its longest winning streak since 2017. Does that have any significance? And I would say no. The DOW was on quite a winning streak coming into 2017. And yes, we took a little break and pulled back, but certainly not a major pullback to put previous support, and the market continued to move higher after the pullback. So does it have any major significance at this time? No, it does not. And of course, the DOW really doesn’t have much significance at any time. The media likes to cover the DOW because it is the oldest North American index. And yesterday, it was the 93rd most actively traded ETF in the US. And of course, I’m referring to the DOW Diamond. So pros don’t really follow the DOW or trade the DOW. Or the most actively traded ETF for Monday’s trading action was the leveraged ETF for the Nasdaq 100, the TQs. And yeah, we traded below the lower channel line, but we did not close below it. So looking for a close on Tuesday below $42.67. Now, what really matters, of course, is the S&P 500. We’re still above the upper channel line, still treading water up here at resistance at 453.13. That hasn’t changed.

And over the past couple of days, we’ve seen a pullback in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq had a quiet day on Monday, still trading in the channel, which of course is neutral. And we’re looking for a close on Tuesday below 375.12. That would generate a new daily sell signal. Russell 2000 holding up fairly well. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60. New high for this move. We haven’t taken out the highs from back in April. Just yet. In the US, the ishares for Canada have taken out those highs and have moved up to the next price target at 35.94. We closed at 36.01 yesterday. So we’re still stuck to that price target. You can see that if we continue higher from here, our playing field would go up to 37.50. Next up, let’s take a look at the world of crypto. And last week we noted that Bitcoin had rolled over onto a sell signal. It continued to move lower on Monday. Now we’ve got Ethereum back on a sell signal as well. Looking at some of the stocks in the crypto world, we’ve got Coinbase in the channel looking for a close on Tuesday below 94.06.

Then looking at Marathon sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal, we would need a close below 1637 on Tuesday. Then looking at some of the stocks traded in Canada, we got Bitfarm’s on a sell signal, we’ve got Galaxy, we’ve got Hive, and we have a hot eight on on both sides of the border already on a sell signal. Next up, let’s take a look at commodity prices starting with the USO, making a new high for this move heading towards those highs from back in April. Then the price of gasoline pushed through the April highs a long time ago. Here we are gapping higher on Monday. If you’re the Fed and you’re watching for indications of inflation settling down, the price of gasoline is not helping with that story at all. Then we’ve got natural gas on a buy signal, little tiny pullback on Monday. Then looking at energy stocks, we saw a new high for this move in Toronto and New York on Monday. Then looking at the metals, starting with the GLD. Back in the channel on Monday, looking for a close below 181.09 to give us a sell signal.

For silver, we’re looking for a close below $22.26. Then looking at the stocks themselves, we saw the GDX trade through the lower channel line for the second day in a row but did not close below it. And so we’re looking for a close on Tuesday below $31.19. In Toronto, we’re looking for a close below $17.86. And then back to New York, we’re looking at the SIL, and we need a close on Tuesday below $27.05 to give us a new daily sell signal. Next up, let’s take a look at the most actively traded stocks in New York, starting with AMC. Believe it or not, it was the most actively traded stock yesterday. We’re on a buy signal. We popped. If you had an order in at 4.69, it got filled at the open, which was way up there at 5.84. Congratulations. Then if you had an order in at 5.47, it also got filled at the open yesterday. We did not hit our next price target of 6.25, got as high as 6.23. You know that there was some sell orders in up there just under 6.25. Then looking at Tesla, still on a sell signal, no change there.

Then we had a new high for NIO. Our next price target was 11.72. We closed at 11.73. Then looking at Bank of America, we ran up to our next price target of 32.81. The high yesterday was 32.85. So chit ching, you got to lock in some profits. Then Rivian, it’s up sitting up at the top of the panic zones, treading water up here, waiting for some news to come out to decide which way they want to go next. Of course, this is not the time to be jumping into this stock. Then AT&T coming off a lower low panic selling last week. We are back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. Does that mean much? Well, you’re probably going to get a trade up to the trend line or up to the fly paper channel, but I wouldn’t expect much more from this stock at this time. Then looking at Ford, you can see that we’re projecting right down towards the $11 level. Of course, the market is going to try to find support at the highs from back in the spring, so I wouldn’t get overly bearish on Ford just yet. A projection is a projection, and of course, it doesn’t know what it doesn’t know.

Let’s finish off today’s presentation taking a look at the TSX most active’s. Embridge made a new high for this move, third day of a buy signal. If you look across the bottom here, you’ll see a series of higher lows. Now we’re breaking out. So our next target, of course, is the high from back in early June. Then looking at TC Energy, very bearish chart here. We ended Friday on a buy signal. You come in Monday, you check the prices in the premarket, and you see that we’re going to gap lower. That’s a big red flag. Then look at this, we put in a high, lower high, lower high, low, lower low, lower low. That’s a very bearish chart. Then Manulife heading up. We hit our next price target and closed above it. Now we’re looking to see if we can move up to 26.56. Then a new high for Athabasca Oil Sands. We’re looking for a move up to 371 as our next target, and then possibly 391. Then looking at Suncor, we’re back on a buy signal. This is a much more bullish chart than TC Energy. We put in a low, higher low, higher low, put in a high, higher high, and now a higher high.

When you look at this little area here, it’s looking pretty bullish. Now we need to take out the highs from early June. If we can do that, look up two lines, that takes you up to 4, 375. That is our playing field going forward. Then looking at Baytex Energy, we’re breaking out towards the 5.08 level. Then if we can take that out, then 5.47 comes into play. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open on Tuesday. We’ve got the Fed meeting coming up and lots of earnings this week, so lots for the market to digest. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, July 25, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television, the Canadian edition. Let’s start off this weekend’s presentation looking at a couple of daily charts. The TSX certainly ended the week on a bullish note, we are coming up to not only our next daily target of 20,625. This was a major area of resistance back in April and into May, and you can see that this week’s activity actually generated a weekly buy signal. I wouldn’t be too excited about taking it. As I mentioned, we’re coming up to the next daily and weekly price target, and that level has held us in check all through 2023. It looks like we might be coming to the end of the summer rally, and we’ll look at that in a little more detail in a few minutes. If we can take out the 2023 highs and let’s say that commodity started to push higher, then we’re looking at an opportunity to move up to 21,875. And as you can see, that’s where we peaked out in early 2022. Let’s move from daily and weekly charts to some monthly charts. And if you’re feeling like things aren’t going well in 2023, that is certainly true for the average investor.

The TSX is only up 6 % so far this year. And you can see by looking at the monthly chart, we’re not really trending on a long term basis. It’s still bullish, but we’re really not going anywhere. The DOW is just up 6.28 %, so the average Canadian, the average US investor, not really feeling the love this year. When we look at the TSX 60, we’re looking at gains a little less than the overall TSX at 5.57 % so far, and you can see we’re still in the channel. Now, when we look at midcap stocks, so you take the TSX composite, you take out the TSX 60, the stocks you’re left with have been performing better than the overall market, up 7.81 %. Then looking at small cap stocks, we’re up just under 3 % for the year. Then looking at the microcap stocks in the Venture Exchange, we’re up 8.13 %. No love here. We’re still on a monthly sell signal. And as you can see from the peak to the trough, which was about a 50 % decline, we really haven’t recovered that much. Now, what’s been working? Well, InfoTech technology, Big Cap technology stocks have done very well in 2023.

So far, the TSX Information Technology index is up over 40 % so far. A lot of that has to do with Shopify, not the only winner in this index, but certainly when you look at the market cap of Shopify compared to some of the Bitcoin stocks which have done incredibly well in 2023, we’re looking at Shopify, we’re up over 84 % for the year so far. Now, the Nasdaq 100 is up over 41 %, and of course, we’re looking at the Nasdaq 100 here. The Nasdaq composite, which has over 2,500 stocks, is up over 34 %. In both cases, a lot of the gains come from a handful of big cap stocks, including NVIDIA, which is up over 200 % so far this year. We’ve got Meta up over 144 % and then Tesla up over 111 %. Now, Meta and Tesla ended the week with bearish reversal signals. This is a possible time and place where the summer rally could be coming to an end. Now, Tesla has had a couple of has had a previous bearish reversal signal a couple of weeks ago. You can see the Pros are starting to give up control.

They have not abandoned buying Tesla, but they are certainly giving up control. Previously, when we had bearish reversal signals, it marked the top for these particular moves in Tesla, and that could be the case, right, that this is starting right now. Once again, that the next leg down for Tesla has started. Of course, if Meta and Tesla are putting in bearish reversal signals, we’re also seeing the Nasdaq 100 put in a bearish reversal signal and semiconductors put in a bearish reversal signal. I think the summer rally is coming to an end right now. We’ll just have to wait and see if that is true. We certainly don’t have a lot of weekly sell signals to deal with. Now, one of the reasons I think the summer rally is coming to an end for the TSX itself, if we look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above the 20 day moving average, you can see that this index is up at the top of the range here, and this is where things start to slow down. If we overlay the TSX itself over the index, you can see in this particular example where the index peaked and then it took a couple of weeks for the actual TSX to peak.

That’s also true here. Took another week or so before the TSX peak. But it’s very hard for a market to continue to move higher from here. It certainly does not guarantee that all sectors are going to pull back. We could see gold or crude oil spike up this week and take the energy sector higher or the gold sector higher. There’s not a guarantee that all the market is going to turn around, but it’s usually what happens. And if you’ve been with me for any length of time, I always say that the air is getting pretty thin up here. It’s just harder to make money up at these levels. You’re probably not going to see the overall market to be able to move much higher from here at this present time. Now, when the index is down below 20, of course, that’s when we look at low risk opportunities. When it’s above 80, that’s when we consider the market to be high risk. Again, no guarantees, we could continue to move higher for the next week or so. It’s not a complete… The fact that you get to point A, something happens. It’s just general indication that the air is getting thin.

It’s going to be harder to make money in the overall market for the next couple of weeks. Now, the only thing that can really help the Canadian market right now is commodity prices. And if we look at copper, we saw copper pulled back into the channel this week. Copper had an inside week or a week of indecision. With copper trading higher over the past couple of weeks, the Pros have not taken control on the weekly chart, so I don’t have a lot of hope for copper at the present time. Similar situation for gold. Gold is still trading in the channel, so we have not seen a buy signal. We need to close above last week’s high this week to give us a new weekly buy signal for the price of gold. The Pros have turned around, but they still have not taken control, unlike silver. Now, silver has been on a buy signal for the past two weeks. It’s having trouble up here. It’s put in a bearish reversal signal. It closed below 25. The Pros have taken control. They’ve been in control for a while now, but really not going anywhere. We were hoping we could start moving up above 25 and take a run at the highs from a couple of months ago, but that isn’t what’s happening.

Now, a lot of people are looking at the fact that this is a very bullish chart. You can see we made a higher low here, then a higher low, then a higher low. We made a higher high, higher high. And so this channel is looking very bullish to a lot of people. But we’re looking at price targets, and so far, $25 has been a roadblock for the price of silver. Hopefully, if we can start moving higher from here and continue, 28.12 would be our next target if we can take out the highs from back in April. Then looking at the energy sector, crude oil was up on the week. Moving from a weekly chart to a daily chart, you can see we’re stuck at the 200 day moving average. That does not guarantee that the market is going to reverse here, but we had trouble dealing with the 200 day moving average back in April, and so far that’s held us in check. If we can continue higher from here, then 78.13 is certainly a legitimate target. That’s where we peaked out back in April, just above that level. And then if we can take out the highs from April, then 81.25 would certainly be a reasonable target to the upside for the price of oil.

Now, looking at natural gas, we’ve been building a base for a long time here. We’re still trading in the channel. We need another close this Friday above 2.76. You can see the Pros are getting very close to taking control. Last time they took control is back here, and you can see that natural gas took off like a rocket. If we start continuing to move higher from here, then 4.69 would certainly be a legitimate target. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but that would be about a 70 % increase from where we are right now if natural gas can continue to move higher from here. With the heat waves going across the world at the moment, you would imagine that natural gas is in high demand at the moment. I know supply is high, but demand is also high at the same time. Now, lumber isn’t as important to the Canadian stock market as it used to be, but you can see we had an inside week. We’re still on a weekly sell signal here right down at the 2023 lows. And you’ve probably heard a lot about the price of wheat with what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine.

Yeah, we’re up over 5 % on the week, but we didn’t take out the high from four weeks ago. So nothing exciting going on for wheat. We’re still on a weekly buy signal here, no change in trend. Now, the Fed is… We’re coming up to another Fed meeting. Everybody’s expecting the Fed to raise interest rates. Once again, they’re trying to fight inflation and you can see the price of gasoline is starting to break out heading towards the highs from early 2022. And so if we’re trying to fight inflation, gasoline would be a great place to start. And that’s not working out so well right now. Let’s finish off looking at the fear index and looking at a weekly chart of the VIX. Fairly quiet trading this week, inside week for the VIX. Long term investors can remain bullish on the stock market as long as the VIX does not close above $16.79 this coming Friday. Now, if you’re a short term investor or trader, short term investors can remain bullish on the stock market as long as the VIX does not close above $14.27 on Monday. Now, the upper channel line is pretty flat right now, so that number, you could probably use that number for most of this week.

Heads will turn, the talking heads will turn if we start to break out, if the VIX starts to break out above 18 dollars. And you can see back earlier in the year, we had a couple of runs at breaking out above the fly paper channel, that didn’t work. We recently ran up to the bottom of the fly paper channel and that reversed. So the market is pretty comfortable with the VIX trading below the top of the fly paper channel. If we start to poke out above it, that’s when investors are going to get very, very nervous about the direction of the stock market. And we’re certainly not there. We’re down at a recent low. So this is what we need to look for. It’s not what’s happening yet. The VIX is on a weekly and a daily sell signal that is still bullish for the market. We saw reversal signals in the market on Friday and this week, and we’ll need to see if there’s follow through to the downside. If there’s follow through to the downside, the downside and the VIX starts to move up, then we’ll start to get bearish on the stock market.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, July 23, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value being led higher by the Nasdaq. Commodities are mixed with gold down while crude oil is higher on Friday morning. Let me first start off by apologizing. If you had trouble getting the reports last night, I also had trouble getting the reports. The problem has been recently fixed. I thought it was fixed before I went to bed. It wasn’t fixed when I got up this morning. Something happened during the night and we’ve fixed it again. Hopefully, that fix will stay this time. But yeah, apologize about that. They are all up and running at the moment. The house of cards did not fall yesterday. Yes, the companies that we were watching in the premarket yesterday morning continued to trade lower throughout the day. We now have Tesla back on a sell signal. We have Netflix back on a sell signal. We also have Alphabet back on a sell signal and Amazon. We’re what didn’t roll over yesterday? Well, Apple is still on a buy signal at the upper channel line. We saw Meta trade into the channel and Microsoft also ended the day in the channel but not on a sell signal.

Now, Shopify traded right down the lower channel line on both sides of the border, right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. Some of those stocks are trading higher in the premarket this morning, so not overly concerned at the open. Now, we’re looking at the queues, we’re looking for a close on Friday below $374.04. That would give us a sell signal. Now, the VIX traded higher yesterday but did not generate a buy signal, and that’s why the rest of the market held up very well. We’re looking for a close on Friday above $14.36. Looking at what didn’t work yesterday, consumer discretionary, of course, those are the products you don’t need during a recession, and semiconductors. Both of those sectors are back on sell signals as of Thursday’s close. Now, the DOW continued to move higher yesterday, and some of the stocks that people have hated recently saw money flow into them on Thursday. We see the DAO is trading up to the next price target and is holding at the moment. It is trading slightly higher on Friday morning. Now, the reason the DAO was the big winner yesterday was Johnson & Johnson, and that looks like quite a surprise to investors.

Then Goldman Sachs was up, making a new high for this move, taking out the previous highs on Long Goldman Sachs. Then Sirius Satellite Radio had a big update as well. And that was the big leader on the Nasdaq on Thursday. Now, we also saw money go into regional banks and Zions gapped higher yesterday. A lot of the stocks that we’ve been downplaying and that have not been performing well in 2023 saw money flow into them yesterday. Money did not come. I don’t think money really came out of the market yesterday. I think it just moved from stock A to stock B. As long as that keeps going, then we’re not going to see a major pullback in the market. Looking at what worked on the TSX, on the TSX 60, it was TC Energy was the big winner. On the TSX itself, it was SNC was the big winner. Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we’re trying to get to 31.25. Maybe we can do that on Friday. Hopefully, you’ve got orders in to get filled at 31.25. If you’re long the I shares, then looking at the SPY, we see a pull back yesterday.

And yes, it did close below the previous day’s low. The previous day was a very small bar, so not overly concerned so far. We’re still hanging around our price target of 453.13, and hopefully you’ve locked in some profits there. And if you still have some shares left, then split those shares in half and put half of them up for sale at 468.75, and let’s see what happens. Now, we’ve been talking about the crypto stocks this week with Bitcoin back on a sell signal. Coinbase is still trading up above the upper channel line. We saw Marathon has been in the channel for the past couple of days looking for a close below 1628 on Friday. Then we have new sell signals for Bitfarm for Galaxy. They’re back on a sell signal, looking at Hive, looking for a close below $7.16. We actually closed at $7.15. Now, when you’re in a situation like this where it doesn’t look like we saw aggressive selling yesterday, you can always wait for the next close below the lower channel line if you don’t want to bite the bullet and take the sell signal from Thursday as it is just at the lower channel line.

Then similar situation for Hut 8 on both sides of the border. Let’s finish off looking at commodities. We’ve got copper trading in the channel right now. On Wednesday, we dip below the lower channel line but came back on Thursday. Then looking at gold, gold pulled back yesterday. It’s down a couple of dollars in the premarket this morning, we need a close below $1983.70 to give us a sell signal on Friday. Then looking at silver, silver is stuck up here at $25. We closed at $24.96 on Thursday. Then looking at crude oil, crude oil is dealing with 75. If we can take out this week’s high, then 78.13 would certainly be a legitimate target to the upside. Then we’ve got natural gas back on a buy signal. Now, this could be bullish. You see, we put in a higher low this week. And so if we can take out that high, that would certainly be very bullish for natural gas. If we could start putting in not only a higher low, but a higher high. Okay, folks, that is all for Friday. Friday’s presentation. Have a great day. Try to stay cool. It’s going to be a very hot weekend in the Southern US this weekend, so drink lots of water, stay away from carbonated beverages, and try to stay cool as you possibly can.

The next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday, and at that time, we’ll take a look at the weekly charts.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, July 21, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are mixed. The DOW and the TSX are trading slightly higher, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are trading slightly lower. Commodities are higher in the premarket on Thursday morning. Now, the reason we’re seeing weakness in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq this morning is a couple of those big cap technology stocks that we follow closely are pulling back off of earnings, but in both cases, not enough to give us a sell signal. Last time I checked, we had Netflix trading right around $449. We’re looking for a close on Thursday below $440 and 54 cents. Tesla currently trading around $280. We’re looking for a close below $274.24. Now, in both cases, if we don’t get sell signals on Thursday, those lower channel lines are going to continue to move higher daily. Now, yesterday we talked about Bitcoin. Bitcoin had pulled back. It is back on a sell signal. Pros are giving up control. That is no guarantee that Bitcoin is going to continue to move lower from here. Last time I checked, it was trading slightly higher in the premarket this morning.

Those Bitcoin stocks that we looked at yesterday, they were trading in the channel for the most part. If you go through them and look at the Hut 8, for example, both in New York and Toronto, still trading in the channel. In the channel is neutral, looking for a close below the lower channel lines on Thursday to give us absolute sell signals. Of course, I hope you’ve locked in some profits along the way. Now, this is about the third time I’ve tried to get through this presentation. Apparently, I want to be really chatty this morning, and so I’ve tried to cut things down as much as possible. The VIX traded higher yesterday, still at the lower channel line looking for a close on Thursday above $14.45. We did put in a bullish reversal day yesterday looking for a move higher. We’re seeing that in the pre market this morning. The pros are starting to take control. So if we’ve got a bullish reversal day in the VIX, that could help mark the end of the summer rally. If we’re looking at the Nasdaq here, the queues, and you can see we’re down just nine cents yesterday.

We’re down over two dollars last time I checked in the premarket. And so if we’re going to move down from here, you’ve got to expect all the levels of support port on our price target chart to hold, but the market may want to head down to the Flyaper Channel. Now, today, if we were to move down to the Flyaper Channel, that would be a 13 % decline. As time passes, that Flyaper Channel is going to continue to move higher. Now, just about every chart has open gaps in the chart and the market will probably want to go back and fill those at some point. If we were going to get a more severe decline and let’s say we went back to the high hs from back in January, that would be a 20 % decline approximately from where we are right now. Of course, time is going to pass. The Flyaper Channels are going to move higher. Each stock has an open gap that could be a potential target on a summer pullback. We’ll just have to wait and see. We might have to wait to September or October for those gaps to get filled.

When you’re looking at the Flyaper Channel, you can see the thinner the channel, the more volatile the stock over the long term. You can get a shorter term look at volatility by looking at the average true range. And you can see the bars have been fairly small over the past few weeks. So you’ve got dramatic long term volatility, much smaller short term volatility looking at NVIDIA. If NVIDIA went back down and filled the open gap from where we are right now, that would be a 33 % decline. And then looking at Meta, you can see it’s got a nice open gap here and over here. Those gaps could get filled at some point, but that is not a concern on Thursday morning. Now looking at Tesla, you can see that we’ve got the Flyaper Channel just coming up to the 230 level. So if we were going to pull back, you have to assume that the market is going to want to try to hold support here at the 240 level. If that broke down over the next couple of weeks, you’re going to find the Flyaper Channel is going to be up at that level as well.

So that could certainly be a place where Tesla traders would want to find support. Now for the overall, the vast majority of investors in the stock market, and I’m not talking about short term traders, I’m talking about investors the question is, did 2023 really happen? Because we’ve watched a handful of stocks move higher and most people, if they’ve got a broadly based mutual fund or an ETF, they are participating in this. But when we look at the overall market and we look at the big cap stocks that the markets are based on, most of them haven’t moved since the start of the year, whether you’re looking at a stock like Boeing or Coca Cola or IBM 3M is in anywhere near where it started 2023. Then you look at Caterpillar. Caterpiller has had an amazing run since the end of May, but where did it get to? It’s back at where it was at the start of the year. Now, when we look at the Canadian market, which has not done as well as the US market because it’s only got one big cap tech stocks, which is Shopify. When you look at those big stocks that are in the TSX 60, you’ve got BCE, you’ve got Canadian Natural Resources, the Railroads, look at them.

They haven’t done anything all year. Then looking at Imperial oil, or you’re looking at Loblaws for groceries, or you’re looking at insurance with Manulife, or you’re looking at banking with the Royal Bank, or you’re looking at mining with Teck, these stocks are where they were at the start of the year. So for the average investor, nothing’s really happened in 2023. It’s just those handful of big cap stocks. And I’m concerned at what’s going to happen to the market when those big cap tech stocks start to pull back, which they will at some point. History tells us that’s what’s going to happen. And if we get a major pullback in those stocks for whatever reason, the rest of the market probably won’t do very well over the coming six months. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Looking for a pullback at the open, but probably not enough to really scare investors. And I don’t think we’ll get a lot of overall damage from Thursday’s trading action. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, July 20, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and commodities are slightly above fair value. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Wednesday morning. Now, in today’s presentation, we’re going to do a couple of different things, but we were certainly going to start off looking at the VIX. The VIX is still on a daily sell signal and a weekly sell signal. Of course, both of those are supportive for higher stock prices. On a short term basis, things would change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close above $14.59.

Now, the Nasdaq hit a new high yesterday, and of course, a handful of stocks in the Nasdaq have been responsible for most of the gains in the North American stock markets this year. I had a question yesterday asking if the volumes of the bull and bear ETFs could help indicate possible change in market direction. And for the most part, I would say no. I would strongly encourage you to watch price action over everything else. Price action tells us intention, volume does not.

You’ve got a slight decline in the average volume for the triple bulls yesterday. And if we look at the triple bears for the Nasdaq, you can see the volume was slightly above average. So no major change yesterday. And I certainly wouldn’t spend much time looking at the volumes as opposed to the actual price action itself. Of course, the bull and the bear ETFs on the TSX look very similar. Of course, they have less volatility than the triples in the US.
Now, one of the things I’m watching closely, of course, we’re anticipating the end of the summer rally this week or next, and you can see that the percentage of stocks on the Nasdaq 100 currently trading above their 50 day moving average is coming up to the top of the range. If we take these three highs here, and I’m looking at those highs because they had the most negative reaction afterwards, they match up very nicely on this weekly chart to major turning points for the Nasdaq over the last couple of years. Here we are. We’re up at the top of the range and we’re looking for the summer rally to come to an end.

This is certainly the time and place for that to happen.

Now, this heat map is a year to date heat map of the S&P 500. And you can see, and we’ve been talking about this, this isn’t anything new, but you can see most of the gains are from over here. They’re certainly not from over here. And you can see how big these boxes are indicating the overall market value of each of these stocks. So a handful of stocks have been pulling the market higher this year. Now, as of Tuesday night’s close, 189 of the S&P 500 are still negative for the year. And one of the stocks that I watch closely, of course, is Goldman Sachs. And we’ll take a look at that in a second. But you can see that we’ve got NVIDIA up over 200 %, we’ve got Meta up over 150 %, then we’ve got Tesla up 138 % in change, we’ve got Apple up nearly 50 %, and we’ve got Microsoft up nearly 50 % for the year. At the same time, and I was shocked to see this, that BlackRock, the big asset manager and investment house, is up just a little over 4 % for the year.

One of the financial stocks that I follow very closely. I’m either long or short this stock is actually down 1.78 % for the year so far. Nowhere near anything that’s a reasonable gain for 2023. Of course, the biggest losers in 2023, a lot of them are the regional banks in the US, but there are other companies as well, such as Advanced Auto Parts, which is down over 50 % on the year.

Now, looking at the TSX, we’re only up a little over 5 % year to date. So all of the mutual funds that are attached to the TSX that use the TSX as their guidepost are up just a little over 5 % for the year, less, of course, the actual expenses. If we look at a heat map of the TSX, you can see how important Shopify is for the gains. But look at all this. All these banks are negative for the year. The railroads are negative for the year. Look at all this. That is a really ugly heat map if you think that you’re in a bull market, which is certainly what the major US indices are telling us. Right now, or as of Tuesday’s close, 84 of the 228 stocks on the TSX composite Index are negative for 2023.

Of course, the big winner on the TSX in 2023 has been Shopify, up over 88 % as of last night’s close. The biggest loser on the TSX is Telus International down over 50 % for the year. Now, yesterday, one of the big winners was the TD Bank. We’ve been watching that stock closely, made a new high for this move, and we saw a huge gain for Charles Schwab on a Tuesday up over 12 % on the day.

Now, let’s finish off with a couple of more charts. Bitcoin has pulled back over the past couple of days, and we’re looking at all the Bitcoin related stocks which have certainly outperformed the gains in Bitcoin. The stocks have done much better than the actual cryptocurrency itself. And you can see that as we go through the Bitcoin related stocks on the TSX, that they’re all pulling back and there’s the potential for a daily sell signal based on Wednesday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all I wanted to cover in this morning’s presentation. We’re anticipating the summer rally to come to an end. All good things come to an end if you look at stock charts and look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their moving averages, when that’s going to happen, what the catalyst for that is going to be, of course, has yet to be determined.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, July 19, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value while commodities are slightly higher on Tuesday morning. Let’s start off this morning’s presentation taking a look at the fear index or the VIX. It’s still on a sell signal traded up yesterday looking for a close of about 14.74. A close of about 1474 can certainly disturb the market, but to really get the big cap tech stocks to roll over, we need the VIX above 18.

Looking at the US dollar index, of course, we made a new low on Friday. We closed slightly lower yesterday, didn’t take out that low. Fairly calm, quiet day in the bond market. Bond yields pretty stable. Y yesterday. Looking at gold, gold was down $8 yesterday. It’s up $10 in the pre market this morning. Silver is having trouble breaking away from $25, which of course, was our next price target. So we seem to be stuck there right now. And with the metals, copper pulled back, closed in the channel on Monday. Of course, that’s not helpful for the mining sector. We saw crude oil pulled back yesterday.

It is higher in the pre market this morning, trading up to the 200 day moving average and stopping. So looking for a breakout above the 200 day moving average. We do have a new early warning signal there for crude oil, so getting suspicious about our chances of moving higher from here. Natural gas closed slightly lower yesterday, no change there. We really need to see a breakout above the fly paper channel for anything new to happen in natural gas.

Then looking at the TSX, it made a new high on Friday, but it was a bearish reversal day and we saw fall through to the downside yesterday. This is bullish, the fact that we made a higher low and a higher high last week. That is bullish. A breakdown of the lower trend line or the uptrend line there would certainly be an indication that something bad is is going to happen for the Canadian stock market. Now, the DOW made a new high yesterday. S&p 500 made a new high. Nasdaq made a new closing high. We had a big reversal in semiconductors, which sold off on Friday, came right back on Monday.

Well, times have certainly changed, and certainly over the past 20 years, we’ve seen a lot of new stocks take leadership positions in the market.

The Communication Services Index is a relatively new S&P index. It made a new high on Thursday, pulled back on Friday, and a continued pull back on Monday. Not a big move down on Monday. We’re still on a buy signal here. A couple of stocks which used to be market leaders, and if they did this 20 years ago, would have certainly shaken the market to see AT&T sell off like this, Verizon sell off, and even in the Canadian market, huge sell off for Bell and a couple of bad days for Telus as well. The market doesn’t seem to be overly concerned at the moment, and times have changed. The focus has changed, and these stocks aren’t as important to the market as they used to be. They are certainly big stocks, but they certainly aren’t scaring the market at the moment. There are other stocks in this sector and we saw Meta trade higher yesterday. We also saw Netflix trade higher and even Fox. Fox making a new high for this move. Even with all Fox’s legal problems, I guess it’s not really their problems, it’s their insurance company’s problems. But yeah, those stocks making new highs while the big telephone companies, those legacy telephone companies, sold off sharply on Monday.

Looking at some of the most actively traded US stocks, we saw Tesla make a new high yesterday. We had AMD up, not enough to take out Friday’s high, but certainly closed higher on the day. We traded down to the lower channel line, so a close below 112.17 give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Inside day for NVIDIA. Then Marathon Digital, new early warning signal up there trading down to the upper channel line. Looking for a close on Tuesday below 15. 59, that would give us a new sell signal. Similar situation for Rivian, new early warning signal there trading down to the upper channel line. Looking for a close on Tuesday below 2180 to give us a sell signal.

Taking a look at some of the Canadian most actively traded stocks, we’ve got Enbridge back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. So pretty ugly looking chart there. Similar looking chart for TC Energy series of lower highs, and now we’re making another lower low. Then looking at TD Bank, a new high for TD Bank. Last week, if you were looking up, 84.38 was our next price target. We got as high as 84.35 yesterday, so we didn’t hit our price target off by three cents.

Remember, anytime you’re looking at a price target, you’re looking at a place where people are going to sell, and some people will put their orders in under those levels. And it looks like that’s what happened yesterday. But we probably hit 84.38 on Tuesday. Then looking at Suncor, we’re second day of a sell signal for Suncor. Then we’ve got Canadian Natural Resources back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. And then Shopify closed slightly higher on the day. A bearish reversal day on Friday. Yesterday was a positive day for the stock, so not a significant bearish reversal day on Friday. We’re looking to see if we can take it out. Now, if you had an order in at 93.75 on Friday, it got filled. We had a high of 93.83 on Friday for Shopify. Anytime there’s a bearish reversal signal, we’re looking for fall through to the downside on the next day. That signal is still in place until we close above Friday’s high of 93.83. So if we close above 93.83 on Tuesday, then that bearish reversal signal can get thrown in the garbage. Otherwise, as long as we don’t close above 93.83,

then that bearish reversal signal is still in play and could mark the top for this particular move for Shopify.

Okay, folks, that is all for Tuesday morning. Looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open at 9 30 Tuesday morning. Have a great day and the next time you’ll hear my voice, it’s going to be on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing and Television. My name, of course, is Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.com. And in this weekend’s presentation, we’re going to focus a little more on the Canadian market than we usually do in the weekend presentation. Of course, we will start off looking at the US market, and we saw bond yields reverse from previous highs that we saw last fall, and they’ve pulled back. They’re still on a buy signal, but the trend has not changed, but the momentum to the upside certainly has. Looking at the US dollar index, it collapsed this week, breaking down below the 2023 lows, while the euro broke out above the 2023 high. So a pullback in the US dollar, of course, makes US exports cheaper around the world, and that can be good for the US stock market. Now, the VIX was down over 10 % on the week. Right now, we’re looking for a close this coming Friday above 17.18 to tell us that long term investors are starting to think twice about owning stocks. On the daily chart, if you’re watching the market on Monday, a close above 1488 would tell us that short term investors are starting to get concerned about the direction of the stock market.

Now, if we look at the daily Fly Paper channel chart, you can see the top of the Fly Paper channel is starting to break down below $18. We can see moves up into the Fly Paper channel can really affect the market on a short term basis. If we’re going to see a longer term trend change happen, we would need the VIX to start breaking out above 18. You can see back here in March, we had that for a few weeks before that we started to come back down. So we’re really looking for a move up above 18 dollars to tell us that longer term investors are starting to be concerned about the direction of the stock market. When we look at the seasonalities and we’re looking at the futures contracts here, the market often peaks in the third week of July. So wouldn’t be surprised if the market was going to end the summer rally this week. That doesn’t guarantee a huge pullback in the market. It just means that upward momentum is going to start to dissipate and we shouldn’t look for the market to be able to move much higher from here. That, of course, is looking at historical information and historical data, that doesn’t guarantee anything at all.

That’s just usually what happens. Then it’s been pretty good over the past 15 years. 100 % of the time, the market peaks around July 19th. Now, looking at the DOW, the DOW has run up to resistance. Once again, we closed just above the 34,375 level. Looking at a weekly chart here, and you can see that we haven’t been able to really break out above that level in over a year. Then looking at the S&P 500, we made a new high this week. We traded up just below the 4531.25 level. Got as high as 4527.76. So very close to our next price target. Then looking at the Nasdaq continuing to move higher up over three and a half % on the week. Now, you’ve probably heard me say this many times. If you’ve watched my daily videos, I always tell you to look for the first close below the previous bar. That’s the first sign that something’s happening. That’s not a guaranteed sell signal. It’s just a time to reconsider what’s going on. If we go back to the start of this rally and we are looking at a weekly chart here, the first time we closed below the previous week’s low is right here.

Then the next week we reversed, then the next week we came down, didn’t close below the previous week’s low, and the market did continue to trade lower but did not close below the lower channel line. We bounced off the lower channel line and moved up. And since that time, we have not closed below the previous week’s low once. Yes, we’ve closed lower, we’ve had inside weeks, but we haven’t closed below the previous week’s low. Then depending on what chart you’re looking at, it really doesn’t matter. These are bars. So if this was a daily chart or an hourly chart or a monthly chart, we look for the same thing. That is the first clue that something might be happening and the market might be starting to change direction. And so far, we certainly haven’t seen that for most of the major US indices. Now, we are still stuck at 15,000 for the Nasdaq 100. We’re looking at the indexes themselves, not the ETFs. We’re still stuck at 15,000. We traded below that this week, and now we’re looking to see if we can break out and move up to 16,250. And if you look to the left, way to the left, you’ll see that’s where we peak back in late 2021.

Next up, let’s take a look at the Canadian market. And we’ll start off by looking at a couple of monthly charts. The TSX has been stuck to 20,000 for a long time now since last year, and really haven’t been able to break away from it. I tell people to look two lines up, two lines down anytime they’re looking at one of these charts. And so if we look two lines down from here, that takes us back down to 1,750. And that’s where we peaked back in 2019. And of course, if you look two lines up, that takes us up to 22,500, which would be just above where we peaked in late 2021. Those are our price targets. If we’re going to break down and pull back, that’s down to 17,500. If the bull market is going to continue or we’re going to break out, then 22,500 would be the top of our projected trading range. Now, when you’re looking at the TSX 60, the numbers are a little different. If we pull back from where we are now, down two lines, I’d be back down to 1,000. Of course, two lines up takes us up to 1,500.

And then looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, two lines down takes us down to $25. Two lines up takes us up to $37.50. Those are your long term price targets. Now, if we look at the weekly charts, the TSX traded and closed just slightly above the upper channel line. That’s technically a buy signal. I would personally be interested in buying the Canadian market if it broke out above the previous highs that we saw back in April and back at the start of the year. That would be more convincing. There’s the TSX 60 closing just below the upper channel line. Midterm charts are back on a buy signal. Small cap charts are back on a buy signal, and microcap stocks are back on a buy signal. Looking at the sectors, consumer discretionary still on a buy signal. No joy for consumer staples. Looking at energy stocks, we actually traded up through the upper channel line this week, but then pulled back. Still closed higher on the week, certainly not in sync with the price of oil. Financials are back on a buy signal. Banks are back on a buy signal. We’ll take a look at some of those stocks in a few minutes.

Gold stocks were up big time this week, up over 7 %, still not on a weekly buy signal, but certainly lots of daily buy signals. And that’s a pretty bullish chart. You can see that we recently put in a higher low and a higher high, and that’s usually a bullish sign, no guarantee. But certainly when you’re looking and comparing one chart against another, it’s a very bullish chart. Compare that to income trusts, and you can see that we recently put in a lower high and a lower low. So that’s a more bearish looking chart if you were to compare the two of them. Then looking at health care, nothing going on there. There’s only a handful stocks in the TSX Healthcare Index these days. Then looking at global mining, back on a buy signal, we’ve got base metals back on a buy signal. Inside the channel for industrials, we’re still on a weekly buy signal, no trend change there. And then InfoTech, looking very similar to the Nasdaq. Of course, this particular sector is heavily weighted in a handful of stocks. Some of our Canadian InfoTech stocks not doing very well. That is also true in the US, in which the Nasdaq is heavily weighted in a handful of stocks.

Then looking at materials, trading up into the channel, no buy signal there. Looking at real estate, we’re back on a buy signal. Looking for a close above 309.34. We closed at 310.47. Then looking at telecom stocks, they were down on the week. We’ll take a look at those in a minute. Then utilities were up, made a new low for this move, and then reversed, but still on a weekly sell signal. Let’s look at some individual stocks in the winner on the TSX this week was Laurentian Bank, up over 27 %. Then the market showed some interest in Canadian Western Bank, up over 5 %. Td Bank was up 3.71 % on the week, third week of a buy signal. Then Bank of Nova Scotia was up 2.14 %, still no weekly buy signal just yet. And the Royal Bank back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday’s close. Looking at what didn’t work, while insurance companies didn’t really perform in sync with banks, Intact Financial was the biggest loser, just down 1.58 %, still on a weekly buy signal. And we saw a small pullback for Sun Life, still on a weekly buy signal.

Now looking at technology, of course, Shopify is the big elephant in the room and it was up over 10 % on the week. Then looking at Celestica, up over 5 %, making a new high for this move. And then anything Bitcoin related did well. So Hut 8 and Bitfarm were both up on the week. Constellation Software was up 1.44 %, and it’s another big behemoth in the tech sector. What didn’t work? Telus International down over 30 % on the week. The market hasn’t liked this stock for quite a while now. Some other stocks, the market’s watching closely. The telecom stocks are all down this week. We saw Bell, we saw Rogers, and we saw Telus all trade lower on the week. And of course, all of them have already been on weekly sell signals for a few months now. Let’s finish off this week looking at commodity prices. And we’ve got copper back on a weekly buy signal. Gold was up on the week. Silver was the big winner. So the industrial metals, copper and silver, did very well on the week. Crude oil was also higher up 2.42 % back on a weekly buy signal.

And unfortunately, natural gas pulled back just 1.56 % on the week. Still on a weekly buy signal, still have not got the pros to take control. You’d think with all this heat and people using air conditioners, there’d be more demand for natural gas, which would push up the prices. But that’s not what’s happening at the moment. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Stock index futures have started trading on Sunday night and so far they’re just down slightly. So no major selling in the premarket on Sunday night. I always end my presentations asking you to donate blood. Why not meet me halfway? At least find out what your blood type is. I was at a party on Friday night and some of the people I was talking to had no idea what their blood type was. It’s rather important if something ever happened to you and it was an emergency and they gave you the wrong type of blood because they didn’t know what your blood type was, that could cause really, really bad problems. So you want to know what it is. You want to make your family aware of what your blood type is.

Luckily, I have the most common blood type, so I’m more than likely to get the right type of blood if something ever happened to me. But you could find out that you could be a local celebrity if you have a rare blood type and the blood bank in your area is really looking for that type of blood. You could be a local celebrity, so you should at least meet me halfway. If you’re not willing to donate blood, at least find out what your blood type is. Okay, folks, again, that’s all for this weekend’s presentation. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, July 16, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market. This morning we’ve got bank earnings out, and JPMorgan trading higher is helping the Dow, which is currently up 140 points. Otherwise the rest of the market is fairly flat.

So we’ve got earnings out from JPMorgan, from Wells Fargo, and from Citigroup. They’re all positive. Wells Fargo is the up, the most in percentage terms in the pre market. But all three stocks are trading higher now. The US dollar index continued to move lower yesterday.

We had a nice big move up in silver stocks. Once again, they led the North American markets higher. And there’s the price of silver jetting out above the June high, heading towards the highs from back in May. Looking at the VIX, second day of a sell signal here was up slightly on the day. A close above $15.02 on Friday would certainly be a wake up call.

There’s the Ishares for the TSX 60 moving up to the previous high on the back of rising commodity prices. Then we’ve got an inside day for the Dow. So the Dow may have put in a double top. We’ll just have to wait and see. It is trading higher in the pre market this morning.

S&P 500 made a new high yesterday. Looking for a move up to 453 13. That’s our next target. And for the triple Q’s, we’re looking for a move up to 390 63. If we can break away from 375, looks like we’re still stuck at that level.

Then looking at semiconductors, next target is 237 50. Now looking at the TSX most actives. Nice big move up for Hut 8 yesterday, it was most actively traded stock. Canadian Natural Resources making a new high. Then we’ve got Enbridge back on a buy signal.

New high for TD Bank, breaking out above the May highs. Then TC Energy still waiting for a buy signal there athabasca trading up at the highs from back in April. Then looking at the Royal Bank, a new high for this move. We saw Cenovus dip into the channel and then ended the day closing higher. Then looking at Suncor trading right down to the lower channel line yesterday, but coming back, closing at the upper channel line.

So a close below 38.43 would give us a sell signal on Thursday. Then looking at Bit farms. New high for Bitfarms from Thursday’s trading action. Looking at the US most active. And right at the top of the list is Tesla.

Once again having another very quiet day. Then looking at Rivian, we reversed after making a new high. Then looking at Marathon, a new high for Marathon, new high for Coinbase. Yesterday, a nice big update. Then Amazon second day of a buy signal, making a new high reversal day for Neo.

You can see it shows up on the nightly reports as a bearish reversal day. Still way above the upper channel line. So not overly concerned then looking at palantir trading up at the previous highs before pulling back. Looks like all the bitcoin related stocks did very well on Thursday. There’s Riot up just under 15% on the day.

Lucid does pulled back over the past couple of days looking for a close on Friday below 6.94 to give us a sell signal. And then there’s Ford. Ford sitting at the upper channel line. A close below 14.85 would give us a sell signal on Friday. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation so far.

It looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open at 930 Friday morning. The next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday. Have a great day, have a great weekend and we’ll talk to you again soon.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, July 14, 2023