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This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are very quiet. They’re slightly above fair value. Commodities are also quiet on Wednesday morning. We’ve got some inflation numbers coming out tomorrow, the market might be on pause until those numbers come out. Now, yesterday was an interesting day. We put in a lower-low, and we did end up with a lot of bullish reversal signals. It was a strange day. We were down in the premarket. We traded much lower during the day and then came back, still closing down at pretty well the same levels we were in the pre-market. Now we did generate a lot of bullish reversal signals. They’re very weak bullish reversal signals because at the end of the day, most of the symbols that receive bullish reversal signals also closed lower on the day. Those are not the most impactful signals that you can get. If we had have closed higher on the day, then I would be beating the drums that we put in a bottom yesterday, but that is not the case at the present time. Now the opposite is also true.

The VIX put in a bearish reversal day, but at the end of the day, still closed higher on the day did not break down and closed below the previous days low. So as a bearish reversal signal, again, it’s weak. We’re looking for more movement to the downside to tell us that yesterday was a top for the VIX, and we don’t have that at the present time. Now, on Wednesday, we’re looking for a close on the VIX below $14.44 to give us a new daily sell signal, and that would be supportive for higher stock prices. The Dow traded back into the channel yesterday. The S&P 500 traded up to the lower channel line. The Nasdaq didn’t get that high, made in a new low yesterday. You’ll see a lot of new lows for this move made on Tuesday. Then you can see for the iShares for the Russell 2000, definitely a lower low yesterday and closing below the lower channel line. Similar situation for the micro caps. Looking at the Canadian market, the iShares for the TSX60 put in a low yesterday, but higher than the low from Friday. That could mark a bottom. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Then banks were in the news yesterday. We got news out that very negative news on the US banking sector. At the end of the day, though, we did not see the banks or the regional banks actually generate a sell signal. In both cases, we traded through the lower channel line, but did not close below it. We’re still on a buy signal here, even with that bad news. Now, Canadian financial is still on a sell signal here. Canadian bank is making a new low on Tuesday. The story hasn’t changed. Bank of Nova Scotia is still the weakest, TD Bank still the strongest. The TD bank, we need to close below 85.40. We closed at 85.42, so just three cents away from generating a new sell signal on Wednesday. Looking at those big cap technology stocks, Apple had a very quiet inside day on Tuesday, so no change in trend there. No change in trend for Amazon still coming off that gap higher from a couple of days ago. Meta may generate a sell signal on Wednesday. We’re looking for a close below $308.65. No change for Microsoft making a new low on Tuesday. No change for Alphabet, inside day on Tuesday.

And no change for NVIDIA, very quiet trading on Tuesday. While Shopify headed down, where did it head to? Right down to our next price target of $75. And that was support back in May. And so we’re going to be looking closely to see if that holds on Wednesday or if we break down and head towards that nice big open gap. Then looking at the Tesla inside day on Tuesday. A day of indecision for Tesla, still a lot of sell signal, no change there. Then looking at commodities, we saw copper drop sharply yesterday. It didn’t really affect the mining stocks too much. Metals and mining ETF made a new low for this move before recovering and closing down just two cents on the day. Similar situation in Toronto with the Global Mining Index making a new low before recovering. And yeah, it was down 49 cents, but less than half a % on the day. Now, compare that to the GLD and the SLV, so gold and silver, both making new lows yesterday. And then if we look at the stocks, the XGD was down yesterday, didn’t make a new low, unlike the GDX, which made a new low yesterday.

And the SIL for silver miners also made a new low on Tuesday. Then looking at Barrick, the biggest Canadian mining stock did make a new low yesterday, but only closed down two cents on the day. And not as much love for new month making a new low, actually, gapping lower on Tuesday. Then looking at the energy sector, we saw the USO move up nicely, making a new closing high for this move on Tuesday. Gasoline was up, natural gas was up. Natural gas starting to break out above 7.42. Our next target is 7.81. That’s going to be significant, first of all, if we can get up there. But secondly, are we going to break through it? Then, of course, if we want to be bullish on natural gas, we want to break through the high from back in June. Then looking at the stocks, US energy stocks had a wild day. They actually traded below the lower channel line before we’re covering closing up just under half a %. On the TSX, we actually closed up one % on the day. The most actively traded energy stock on the TSX was Suncor and made a new closing high yesterday.

In the US, the most actively traded energy stock was Southwestern Energy, and it closed basically unchanged just down a penny on the day. Still on a buy signal here, still closing above the upper channel line. Okay folks, that is all for Wednesday morning. It’s fairly quiet out there still. DOW future is up 48 points. We may see some volatility in the energy sector as energy inventory has come out at 10:30 this morning. Enjoy the rest of your day and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, August 9, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning. Stock index futures and commodities are down across the board. Dow futures currently down 200 points. Yesterday was a fairly lightly traded day.

Canadian markets were closed. Yesterday was an inside day for many of the major indices including the VIX. On Tuesday we’re looking for the VIX to close below $14.19. That would change us from being short term bearish to being short term bullish and at the moment doesn’t look like that’s going to happen on Tuesday. Now it’s very easy to notice that the S&P 500 had an inside day on Monday trading within the previous day’s range.

That of course is a day of indecision. Of course the headlines are very positive, but that’s not exactly what happened. Looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq actually dipped slightly below Friday’s low before recovering and volume was very light. The queues on Monday only traded 37 million shares and change on Friday that was 61 million. So a lot more people interested in selling on Friday than buying on Monday.

There’s the Russell 2000 closing higher yesterday, making a new low for this move. Very quiet day for the chips on Monday. Still on a sell signal, no change there. Apple continued to move lower on Monday and since the rebalancing, Apple isn’t having as much of an effect on the market as it previously did, we are coming into the Fly Paper Channel. This is a place we’d look to see if Apple could find some footing here and find new buyers.

We are down at the 100 day moving average, heading towards the 200 day moving average. Our next mathematical target is 175 and just above that is an open gap. So that is certainly a legitimate target for Tuesday. Looking at Tesla, Tesla made a new low yesterday before recovering. Still closing lower on the day it regained the $250 level.

At the close there is an open gap not too far below where we are right now. And if that gap doesn’t hold, then 218 75 would be our next mathematical target to the downside. And you can see the 100 and 200 day moving average is around the 225 level and you can see that that would take us into the Fly Paper Channel as well. So looking for places to find support at the moment. And so far the market has not stopped moving lower.

Now the TSX 60 was up $6.95 on Friday. It is down $4.10 in the pre market. So not going to catch any of Monday’s positive trading action on Tuesday morning. We do have commodities down across the board. Crude oil pulled back yesterday.

Remember 81.25 was our top of our projected trading range. We’ve now expanded that and looking to see if we can continue higher. We’re not going to do that on Tuesday morning. Natural gas had a great day on Monday. Back up to the 2.73 level on the futures contract and unfortunately, it’s pulling back a bit in the pre market this morning.

Now energy stocks in the US. Were up just slightly on Monday and so I would expect that energy stocks on both sides of the border will be down on Tuesday. And then looking at gold, it was down yesterday, it’s down in the pre market this morning. Silver is also down in the pre market this morning. I don’t think that’s going to help gold and silver stocks and the GDX was down yesterday a little over three quarters of a percent.

I would expect the XGD to be down one or 2% on Tuesday. Last up this morning biggest loser on Monday were biotech stocks and that probably had something to do with Moderna, which was down over 6% on the day. So certainly no change in trend for either of those. Okay everyone, that is all for Tuesday morning. As you can see, while Monday got some very positive headlines, it really didn’t do anything.

The trade is still to the downside and not expecting any trend changes on Tuesday, but we may see some additional sell signals. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, August 8, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Welcome to this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television. Well, I hope you’re having a wonderful weekend. It’s really nice here and we’re heading out for a barbecue a little later this afternoon. This time last week, we were looking at S&P 500 that had a wild day on Thursday and then recovered on Friday. That Thursday was a Bearish Reversal day and has marked the high for this particular move. We move forward a week and we do have lots of new daily sell signals to deal with, but not necessarily weekly sell signals. Now you can see the latest Bearish Reversal signal on the S&P 500 chart. The pros are giving up control but haven’t given up control just yet. Looking at a weekly chart of the S&P 500, a big sign of weakness, of course, is the fact that we closed below the previous week’s low. That is certainly a warning sign going forward. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, you can see we had a Bearish Reversal three weeks ago, and that high has held us in check. Looking at the Nasdaq composite itself, we ran up to 14,375 and stopped.

And so far, that level is holding us in check. And that held us in check earlier in the year. Then looking at the Russell 2000, what do you know? We’re stuck at 2,000 and have been that way for a couple of weeks. And 2,000, of course, held us in check earlier in the year. And then looking at the TSX, well, unfortunately, we had a big pull back this week back into the channel. We were trying to break out above the level that has held us in check for a year now, up at 20,625. Unfortunately, that is still holding us in check. Another sign of possible continued weakness here is the fact we put in a high, a lower high, and now we’ve put in a lower high. So a series of lower highs, not usually a good sign going forward. Now, oddly enough, it was not the big cap stocks in the TSX that have led us higher. If you look at the composite, then you look at the 60 biggest companies and then look at the remainder of the TSX composite or what are called the midcaps. They’ve outperformed the big cap TSX 60 stocks over the past couple of weeks.

Then looking at small cap stocks, they’re stuck at resistance at 718.75. Then looking at microcap stocks in the venture exchange, we’re trying to break out above 625, closed at 615.72, so still no joy. Now, if this was truly a bull market, and we know it isn’t because most of the gains in 2023 have been from a handful of bigcap technology stocks, the venture exchange is basically where it was at the start of the year. So investors have not been compelled to put money into early stage startups such as those listed on the venture exchange, and that’s not a good sign. Everybody has a lot more fun in the stock market when small and microcap stocks can do well. And so so far in 2023, that has not been the case. Now, we’ve gone over this chart a few times over the past couple of weeks, and we’ve talked about the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 20 day moving average. We looked at the TSX, the Nasdaq, and the S&N P 500. And so here we are. We were up at the top of the range and we were looking for a pullback. Of course, when you’re up above 80 %, we consider that a high risk zone.

When you’re down below 20 %, that’s a low risk zone. This is when we look to sell, this is when we look to buy and now we’re looking to see how far down we can come. Of course, as you come down to the low risk area, there’s no guarantee the market is going to instantly reverse and move higher. Just because we’re down here doesn’t mean we can’t continue to go lower. We’re also always going to look for a reversal in price momentum before we start getting too excited about becoming new buyers down in the low risk zone. Now, the biggest mistakes that a lot of investors make is they wait until they get enough psychological support. So anytime that the market is up at these levels where the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 20 day moving average is above 80 %, you’re mostly going to find positive news and the market reacting positively. Remember, this last run up that we had, the DOW was up day after day after day. In fact, it broke all its previous track records. We had to go back to 1987. So there was a lot of cheerleading, a lot of positive support from the media up at these levels.

So this is the time and place where a lot of investors are willing to throw money into the market because they have that psychological support. Now, the opposite is also true. While we want to short stocks up at these levels, the average investor is going to be looking for negative psychological support before they pull the trigger and short stocks. And so they’re going to wait. They don’t know they’re waiting, but this is the time and place where you get the most negative information about the market is when we’re down below 20 % of the stocks on the S&P 500, the TSX, or the Nasdaq trading below their 20 day moving average. So this is the time and place where you’re going to get the most negative news. And for somebody who’s not that confident, doesn’t understand how the stock market works, this is the time and place they’re going to decide to either sell or short stocks or buy puts down at the bottom of the range. And that’s the exact opposite of what you really want to do. We want to be looking for buying opportunities off the bottom and selling opportunities off the top.

Now, talking about selling opportunities, NVIDIA is still holding up fairly well. It’s been on a sell signal for a couple of days now. Now, this is just a short term right side sell signal. So this is for short term traders. The midterm chart is still on a buy signal, so that has not changed just yet. Of course, we’re still on a weekly buy signal, still closing above the upper channel line, so not with that concerned. We need a close below 395.02 this coming Friday. Not expecting that to happen. And we’ll be watching every stock to see how they react to the Fly Paper Channel on the way down. Does the market trade down to the Fly Paper Channel and do previous investors come back and buy the dip, or are they going to start walking away? If they start walking away, you can tell that by the fact that the stock will be trading through the Fly Paper Channel. In this situation, looking at NVIDIA, you can see the top of the open gap basically lines up with the Fly Paper Channel. So that would certainly be a reasonable target to the downside and an expected area where you’d expect the stock to find support.

Now, if things are going to get worse, then we’re going to break down below the Fly Paper Channel and the market may take a run for the bottom of the open gap, which is just about $300. So if we’re going to go from up at the 450 area down to 300, that’s a 33 % loss and that’s going to have a major effect on the overall stock market. Now, Apple had a very bad day on Friday, not something that you usually see from Apple. And for the last couple of months, most of the bars have been fairly small. We’ve got a couple where we had wide range bars, but for the most part, they were pretty small. But Friday, not only did we move lower, but we gapped lower and closed near the low of the day. That’s not a good sign. 187.50 was our first target, and then 181.25 was our next target. So far, we’re holding 181.25. If that breaks, 175 is our next target, then there’s a nice open gap just above that that could act as a target on the way back down. We are up at the top of the Fly Paper channel right now.

The bottom of it is about 176. So it’s certainly possible that we could hold the Fly Paper channel. If we don’t, then that’s going to certainly send a message to the overall stock market. Now, Amazon popped on Friday. If we look at our price target chart from Thursday, we were looking at 137.50 and 143.75. Got up to 143.63 on Friday. So not enough to hit our exact target. But I ask you to consider putting orders in just below that target. Now, if you’re using your Right Side Chart, you weren’t participating in that big move on Friday but certainly people using the midterm chart or a longer term analysis certainly are. And hopefully some of you got to lock in some profits. What would I do about Amazon coming in on Monday? Not a thing. I would not be chasing Amazon up at these levels. Then looking at Shopify, Shopify was down over 11 % on the week. It is back on a weekly sell signal as of Friday’s close. We came into Friday already on a daily sell signal, trying to hold support in the Fly Paper channel. You can see we’re trying to hold support port at the 100 day moving average.

I am looking at Shopify on the TSX. You can see we’re still projecting down to the 200 day moving average, which is down right around $70 at the moment. Our next mathematical target is going to be 75. Is there any history at 75? Yes, we bounced off it in late May. If that does not hold, then you’ve got the top and the bottom of the open gap here that could potentially act as price targets. You’ve also got 68.75 in the middle. So the market may want to come down and fill that open gap. We’ll just have to wait and see. And of course, the first sign is a break of $75. Moving on to commodity prices. The price of crude oil continued to move higher, closing above the previous week’s high for the second week in a row, 81.25 was our next target. We closed at 81.21 on Friday, certainly hit our target. And of course, if we continue to move higher from here, we will create a new price target going forward. Looking at natural gas, we were down 2.31 % on the week. Looking at the metals, copper had a pullback. We had a Bearish Reversal week in copper.

The pros still have not taken control. Gold was down $23.80 on the week, so no change in trend for gold. Having trouble getting up and over and staying over $2,000 at the moment, if we take out the recent low, then $1875 is our next target. And we saw silver pull back 3.18 % still closing above the lower channel line. So we’ll close this coming Friday below 23.42 would give us a new weekly sell signal for silver. When we look at the price of silver, notice that we put in a lower high recently. So now we’re going to have to see if we continue to make a lower low here. We put in a lower low. Now we’re going to have to see what happens next. We put in a Bearish Reversal week three weeks ago. That high is still holding us in check and the pros are starting to give up control on the weekly charts. Looking at stocks, Canadian energy stocks were up 1.39 %, US energy stocks were up 1.25 %. Looking at the metals, US gold stocks were down 3.78 %, while Canadian gold stocks were down 2.88 %. Us gold stocks, Canadian gold stocks still holding the recent low from a couple of weeks ago.

We’ll have to see if that low holds going forward. Otherwise, our next target to the downside will be the low from spring of this year. Looking at bonds, bonds continue to move lower for the most part this week. Bond yields continue to move higher. Looking to see if the highs from late 2022 will hold us in check. Looking at the XBB, we actually closed down just slightly on the week, closing up the lower channel line after making an intra week low. There’s the TL2 MT making a new low for this move. We saw a lot of movement in stocks that are heavily tied to interest rates such as utilities. Us utilities coming down 4.55 %. Canadian utilities coming down 4.27 %, making a new low for this move. Let’s finish off looking at the VIX. Last week, we talked about the fact the VIX was in a fairly tight range. Top of the range was 1,7.08. We closed on Friday at 17.10, so starting to break out above the range on the daily chart. We generated a buy signal on Wednesday, saw a small pull back on Thursday, and a nice big up move on Friday.

We are starting to punch out above the daily Fly Paper Channel, and we are certainly back on a weekly buy signal. So we will remain long term bearish on the stock market as long as the VIX does not close below 13.75 this coming Friday. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. We are expecting the market to be weak during the month of August and September. And at some point, hopefully there’ll be a low risk buying opportunity where we can ride the market higher into the year end. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside

Sunday, August 6, 2023

 

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We are coming up to employment numbers coming out at 830 this morning, and that could certainly add some volatility to the pre market trading action. Looking at yesterday’s trading action, the VIX was able to trade above the previous high, but did not hold those gains.

In fact, it closed slightly lower on the day. So we were able to trade above the top of the Fly Paper Channel, but we didn’t really hold those gains at all. We were looking for movement up above $17. Got as high as 17.42 before closing just below $16. Now, a lot of movement is still happening in the bond market, and I’m not sure what the bond market is trying to tell us.

I’m not sure anybody is, but they are certainly very aggressive in their actions. There’s the XBB on the TSX, there’s the TLT, and the 30 year bond. And the 30 year bond year yield now looks like that, which of course, is not helpful to the real estate market going forward. So that could certainly put a big damper on the economy if the real estate market starts to pull back aggressively. Now, yesterday we talked about the fact the market was probably on pause, waiting for earnings from Apple and Amazon.

That has now happened, and they basically cancel each other out. Apple’s earnings were taken negatively. It’s trading down in the pre market while Amazon’s earnings were taken positively. And it is popping in the pre market trading this morning. So we’re coming in and we’re on a sell signal right now.

So our next price target is 137.50 and then 143 75. I certainly wouldn’t chase Amazon up at these levels. I believe it’s probably going to be a short term pop. And the stock, no matter how well it holds up, is still going to be pulled down during August and September. Then looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60 we traded down filled a gap.

Trying to hold 30.47. If we don’t hold that, then 30.08 would be our next target to the downside. Looking at the Dow, it is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close, joining the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the semiconductors. Already on daily sell signals. Looking at commodity prices, crude oil moved up yesterday.

Gasoline was down on the day, sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. Just a couple of pennies to go. And then natural gas popped yesterday. It’s holding support at 6.64. We’re looking to see if we can get over 7.03.

If we get over 7.03, that takes us back to 7.42. Then looking at the major energy ETFs, starting with the XLE, we were up just a little over 1% yesterday. Our next price target is 87 50. I may have misspoke on Thursday and said 67.50. And once again, we hit it on Thursday.

Looking at oil and gas equipment makers, the explorers, the small caps, and the TSX listed energy stocks. They were all up on Thursday. Now, we know that energy stocks are doing well. We know that crude oil is up. We know that technology stocks have been doing well.

You’d think clean technology stocks would be doing well. Well, that’s not the case. Now. When I saw this chart, I decided to go and look and see how some of the alternative energy ETFs were doing. And looking at global wind, not doing well, looking at global clean energy, not doing well right now.

And you can see this particular ETF has not been doing well in 2023 with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Now there are some ETFs in the alternative energy space that are doing well right now. Well, so much for my intuition. You would think that with energy prices trending sharply higher, energy stocks trending sharply higher, technology stocks trending sharply higher, that clean technology stocks would also be trending sharply higher. And that is certainly not the case.

Now, the price of gold was down yesterday. It’s fairly stable in the pre market this morning. Price of silver was also lower. When we look at the gold and silver stocks, the GDX actually closed unchanged on Thursday. We saw the Ishares for the TSX global gold index down a little over a quarter of a percent, and a little more aggressive selling for silver miners, down nearly three quarters of a percent.

But a fairly quiet day overall for the gold and silver mining stocks. Now, we’re almost done. Let’s take a look at some big cap technology stocks, starting with PayPal, which was down sharply yesterday. Hopefully you locked in some profits along the way. We traded up to previous resistance.

Another early warning signal up there. The 200 day moving average looks like it played a role once again, which it did back earlier in the year. So that could have been a legitimate target to the upside. Or you could have used our price targets. 68, 75 was the first one.

And then we move up into the gap, 71.88, then 75. We were able to go up and fill that open gap and trade slightly above 75 for a couple of days before coming down. So you’ve had several opportunities to lock in profits along the way, and you should have just a partial position left. Of course, you’re going to sell that at the open on Friday morning. Then looking at shopify, we’re coming down to our next price targets and we’re going to be looking to see if we can hold support in New York at 56.25, in Toronto at $75.

Now, if we break those, there’s a nice open gap there from early May. And if we look at the panic zone chart, if we go down to retest the top of that gap, that’s going to take us down to a reasonable projection, to the downside. If we’re going to go down and fill the gap, that would be more panic selling, and that would certainly be a very negative sign for the overall technology sector if shopify were to get down to those levels. It’s certainly possible in August and September. We’ll just have to wait and see.

But those are potential targets to the downside. Looking at Arc innovations, the ARK ETFs are all back on sell signals right now with the rest of the market. Notice that we put in a lower high last week. And the ARK. ETF that’s getting hit the hardest right now is the Genomics ETF, which was down sharply the last couple of days. And then let’s finish off with Lightspeed.

Lightspeed had a wild day yesterday, making a new low before reversing and closing just above the upper channel line. It’s trading down slightly in New York. Last time I looked, it was down .25, $0.30. That, of course, can change. Whether you take the buy signal or not is up to you.

I would certainly wait for the next close above the upper channel line to see if these investors know what they’re doing at this time. Okay, folks, that is all for Friday morning. I see the employment numbers have come out, and I see stock index futures have not changed that much. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, August 4, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. Well, US employment numbers just came out and stock index futures really haven’t moved very much. Stock index futures are currently below fair value. We’re not seeing any aggressive selling in the premarket. Commodities are mixed with the energies higher while the metals are lower at this particular time on Thursday morning. Well, yesterday we certainly saw the market jiggle quite a bit and bonds sold off sharply. Bond yields especially on the long end of the yield curve moved up sharply. Looking at the 30 year bonds, making a higher high here. Of course, US 30 year mortgages are attached to this particular chart nd so that’s probably not a good sign for the real estate sector going forward. Now, currencies continued their current trend and the US dollar index continued higher. The euro continued lower and other currencies. Not the US dollar moved down yesterday, including the Canadian dollar. Looking at the major stock market indices, they rolled over yesterday. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and then the ishares for the TSX 60 dropped yesterday. What you’re going to see on a lot of charts is lower highs. That’s not a bullish sign.

We ran up, we tried to test the high from a couple of months ago, couldn’t break through it, and now the market has reversed. We were waiting for the end of the summer rally. The market has been overbought. We had a full moon on Monday. There’s just a whole bunch of reasons why we pulled back yesterday. The actual reason doesn’t really matter. It’s how the market reacts to that particular situation. In most cases, the situation is never going to repeat itself. You don’t need to get too hung up on exactly why the market decided to roll over yesterday. My concern right now is that the fear index, while it popped, it didn’t pop through the top of the fly paper channel. Yes, that is bearish, but it would be more convincing if the VIX were to pop up about and start trading above 17. Now, we have some important numbers coming out after hours. The market is going to be watching Apple and Amazon’s earnings tonight after hours. And it doesn’t really matter what the earnings are. It’s, of course, how the market reacts to those earnings that we really need to be concerned about.

So we are coming into Thursday’s trading action with Apple and Amazon both back on sell signals. Now, the biggest weakness in the Canadian market yesterday was InfoTech, and that was led lower by Shopify. In both cases, we put in lower highs last week and rolled over, and now we’re taking out last week’s lows. That is a bearish sign going forward, so we’ll just have to keep an eye on that. Semiconductors also put in a lower high and are back on a sell signal. In fact, they’re starting to trade below last week’s lows, so that is no longer a potential area of support. Advanced Micro Devices had a wild day on Wednesday, trading above the previous day’s high, then coming right back down and ending the day on a sell signal, still holding the lows from June. That is a positive note so far. Then looking at Intel, looks like we’re putting in a double top. A close below 34.29 on Thursday would give us a sell signal for Intel, which would join NVIDIA, which put in a lower high last week. And now we’re back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close.

Looking at commodity prices, the metals moved down yesterday. They’re moving down in the market this morning. I’ve always got questions about gaps. Gaps are important. They’re potholes in the market. There are areas of the market where the market didn’t function. The market only functions if there are buyers and sellers that agree on price. If they don’t agree on price, you get gaps. And if you get gaps, the market remembers those. So the only time you need to worry about a gap is when the gap is in front of you. And so when SIL was moving up, you could see it traded up, filled the gap, and then pulled back. And so here we are. We’re moving down. The first gap has been filled and now we’re continuing into the second gap and you can see the bottom of the second gap is down there. That is another potential target and a potential area of support. So the market will be watching that closely on the way back down. Now, gold stocks were down across the board. XGD, GDX both down sharply yesterday and silver miners were also down on Wednesday, making a new low for this move, but still looking to see what happens at the lows from early July.

Now, energy pulled back yesterday. We saw a pullback in crude oil still trading or closing above the upper channel line while gas traded down to the lower channel line. We’re looking for a close on Thursday below $70.01. Then natural gas was down again yesterday. We’re trying to get it to hold 6.64. We closed at 6.67. If that breaks, then 6.25 should be our next target to the downside. Then looking at energy stocks on the TSX, they still closed above the upper channel line as they did in the US. In the US, though, the XLE ran up to resistance at 67.50, so congratulations. If you had an order in it up there, it got filled. Now we’re starting to pull back. The US energy sector could be putting in a double top here. We’ll just have to wait and see. We’re almost done. Just a couple more charts. Finance financials in the US traded down yesterday. They did not generate a sell signal. We’re looking for a close below 35.01. We closed at 3503. We’re sitting right on the edge of a new sell signal for the XLF. If we look at US bank stocks and US regional banks, they’re both still on buy signals, no change, trading in the channel.

Unlike Canadian banks, the financials on the TSX rolled over yesterday as did the bank stocks. We’ve been watching the TD Bank, which appeared to be the strongest bank going into the recent rally. It is still holding up as is the national bank. The weakest bank stock that we looked at recently was the Bank of Nova Scotia, and it is still the weakest Canadian bank at this time. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see a little selling at the open. I think the market should be fairly quiet today as a lot of participants are going to be watching to see what happens with Apple and Amazon after hours on Thursday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, August 3, 2023

 

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. So so far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Wednesday morning. I don’t think it’s going to be enough to generate new buy signals for the major indices, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Now, Tuesday was an interesting day. Most of the major indices were down except the DOW and the DOW was led higher by Caterpiller, which was up over $23 in closing at the high of the day. So quite an incredible move for Caterpiller. Now, on the back of that big move from Caterpiller, the DOW was able to remain positive all day. And we’re looking for a close for the DOW Diamond s below $351.49 on Wednesday. Not expecting that to happen. And of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. What didn’t work on the DO? Well, it was Verizon was the big loser. Now, Verizon’s had great recovery off the recent low. The recovery was not positive enough to generate a buy signal.

We did run up to resistance at $34.38 and stopped. And now it looks like we’re going to come back down and retest the low down at 31.25. Notice that from the time that Verizon started to recover here, that the pros showed no interest in taking control. So that was a warning sign that this was just a short covering rally and it has now started to fade. What else didn’t work on the DOW? Well, Walgreens and Merck, both already on cell signals, led the DOW lower yesterday. Notice Merck traded right back down to the recent low, and we’ll have to see if that low holds on Wednesday. Also notice that we put in a high here, then a lower high, and now another lower high, which of course is bearish. Looking at the SPY, we need a close below 452.20 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. For the Triple Qs, we’re looking for a close below 377.36. For the IWM, we’re looking for a close below 194.14. And for the IWC, for the microcap stocks, we’re looking for a close below 112.58. Next up, let’s take a look at the fear index. And historically, I would tell you that a close above 1426 would be negative for the stock market.

We saw some selling yesterday. We’re going to see some selling today. We really need to give the VIX more room right now. It’s in a tight range. You can see across the bottom here. Yeah, we popped a couple of weeks ago, but really didn’t get anywhere. And so I’m really looking for a breakout above 17. If that were to happen, that would probably correspond directly with new daily sell signals for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, etc. So we need to give the VIX a little more room at the present time. Next up, looking at crypto, we’re still on a daily sell signal for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. And then for the major Bitcoin stocks, Coinbase and Marathon, they are still on sell signals, so that has not changed. Then looking at the big cap tech stocks, we’re still waiting for Apple. Apple’s got earnings out later in the week, and so investors may wait until those earnings come out before they decide what to do next. You can see the pros in the public are currently taking profits right now. That has not been enough to affect the overall price. They’ve been able to sell into some strength up here, but they are liquidating at the moment.

Then looking at Amazon, Amazon’s on a buy signal from just two days ago. We had quite a wild week last week for Amazon. We need to close below 129.49 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. A lot of times when you want to hold on a stock longer, so let’s say that you got in on the right side and now you want to continue to hold for an event or quarterly earnings or dividend payment, etc. It’s often wise to move from the right side to the mid term chart. You’ve been in there a while and so now you want to give the stock a little more breathing room. Right now, we would need a close below 127 on the midterm chart versus 129.49 on the right side chart. Then looking at who’s in control, you can see that the pros gave up control last week. Then they took control again, but again, it does not look like they want the stock to go much higher from here. Then looking at Alphabet, we had that big pop, and now I’m expecting to come back and fill that gap at some time over the next couple of weeks.

Then looking at Meta, Meta is still on a buy signal up here. It popped last week on earnings, and now we’re looking for a close on net Wednesday below 303.60. And you can see the pros are still in control, no change there. Then looking at Microsoft, we’re still on a sell signal here looking for a close above 345.70 on Wednesday to give us a new buy signal. Currently holding support at 328.13. If that breaks, then 312.50 would be our next target to the downside. Then looking at NVIDIA, still on a buy signal here that would change on Wednesday with a close below 452.61. If we can take out the June high, then $500 would be our next target. Looking down, of course, if we break 437.50, then 406.25, and then 375 come into play, and 375 is at the top of the open gap. Then looking at Tesla, Tesla is still on a sell signal. On Wednesday, we’re looking for a close above $273.04. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation looking at the major commodity the ETFs. And the energy sector had a small pullback on Tuesday, starting off with the crude oil. You can see a very small pullback there.

A small pullback for gasoline. Gasoline had an inside day or a day of indecision. Natural gas, unfortunately, is still on a daily sell signal, filling a gap on Tuesday. We are looking to see if 6.64 will hold. It is a a bearish picture here. Yes, we made a higher high in June. We certainly made a higher high from the May high, but now in July, we put in a lower high, and now we’re going to have to see if support at 6.64 holds. If it breaks, then 6.25 comes into play. Looking at the energy ETFs, the X LE had a small pullback yesterday. Oil and gas equipment had a small pullback, as did the Explorers, and as did the small cap energy stocks. But certainly not concerned about possible sell signals on Wednesday unless the energy sector collapses. But that’s not what we’re seeing in the premarket this morning. The GLD is still on a sell signal, no change there. The SLV has come back and is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at the miners themselves, the GDX is still on a sell signal, no change there. No change for the junior miners.

And unfortunately, we’ve got the silver miners back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Still looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, August 2, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hello everyone and welcome to this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television for Sunday, July 30th, 2023. My name, of course, is Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.Com. Now, Thursday was a wild day in the market. We made a new high, pulled back, closed lower on the day. It didn’t generate a sell signal for most of the major indices. On Friday, we did close higher on the day, inside day, but a new closing high for the S&P 500. Now, we are coming up to month end, and of course, month end has a bullish bias to it. Having a bullish bias does not guarantee success. If there is negativity, the bullish bias could help dampen that negativity, but I certainly wouldn’t bent against the market coming into month end. Now, looking at a seasonality chart of the SPY, you can see that the month of July is usually bullish. We are looking for the summer rally to end last week as the market was very overbought. It continues to be overbought and we continue to move higher right into Friday’s close. The month of August usually has a pullback as the summer rally ends. It’s not usually a major pullback, but in certain years it has been.

And if we go back and look through the last 10 years, you’ll notice that there have been some very bullish trading in the month of August. If we start off with 2013, you can see that we peaked right at the end of July and then sold off into August. In 2014, we started selling in late July into August before recovering in the second week of August and moving back up. Looking at 2015, we got some aggressive selling going into the second and third week of August. Then looking at 2016, really not much downside pressure until we get into September. Then looking at 2017, you see we peaked in the middle of the first week of August and then saw some selling for the next couple of weeks. Then in 2018, it was a pretty bullish year. We caught a couple of small blips, but for the most part, the market continued to trade higher into the end of August. Then in 2019, it was a more typical month where the selling started at the end of July into the late August. In 2019 and 2020, very bullish year, no disturbance whatsoever in the month of August.

Then looking at 2021, very bullish year. You go back into June, there was a couple of days of distress. In July, similar situation into August, and the market just kept moving higher through 2021. Then in 2022, we peaked in the middle of August and saw that pull back and then started to move up into the first week of September. Then things fell apart once again. That’s what the seasonality of the month of August looks like for the S&P 500. Now, if you’ve been watching the stock market for any length of time, you know that we’re in a constant state of uncertainty. We’re uncertain about what the market is focused on. We’re uncertain about how the market is going to react to a certain situation. Are they going to react the same way they did before? Have the major topics they’ve been focusing on? Is that still an issue? Right now, is inflation still an issue? I know inflation is still out there. It’s affecting me and my family every day. Watching the price of gasoline head up to the highs from 2022, I like to watch gasoline as a measure of inflation because it affects the most people.

If we look at a number like let’s say what’s the value of luxury homes in Los Angeles, if they go up or they go down, that doesn’t affect the overall population. I’m not sure I really would care much about analyzing that as part of inflation. But here we’ve got inflation is still an issue. Is it an issue to the market? It may be an issue to consumers, but is it an issue to the market? Is it an issue that the Fed still wants to deal with? Now, when we look at the bond yields on the 30 year bond, and this is a weekly chart, you can see we’ve been in a fairly narrower range for the past year and a half. We peaked back in 2022, and then we’ve come back a bit and basically been trading sideways. There’s no indication that bond yields are going to go down and interest rates are going to go down anytime soon. Is that still a concern of the market? It’s really have no idea. And so that’s why we just like to watch price action as opposed to trying to analyze and guess which way the market is going to go next.

Now, it’s often said that the market is forward looking, and yes, part of the market is forward looking, but the market tripped and fell on its face on Thursday because of news out of Japan. So is that very forward looking? That if the Bank of Japan says something and the market stumbles, that isn’t very forward looking at all. But now what we might be seeing right now is the stock market looking past dealing with inflation and looking past the Fed rate tightening cycle and looking at what the world is going to look like beyond that. And that could be why the stock market is continuing to move higher at this time. Now, one of the other topics we’ve been dealing with in 2023 is US bank failures. And we had another one this week, really small bank in Kansas City, just a couple of branches. But banks are continuing to struggle. And I think we’re going to see a few more bank failures in 2023, including probably a major one at some point if the Fed is going to continue to raise rates into the end of 2023. But now, the market isn’t really reacting too much to China these days.

Maybe they are and we don’t notice it. But China is not doing very well. It hasn’t been for a while. It’s got a housing crisis, it’s got a bank crisis. Neither of those those two issues have gone away. One of the ways they’re dealing with the housing crisis is by demolishing hundreds and hundreds of condo buildings or apartment buildings. And that’s one of the ways to deal with the problem. Now, looking at the charts this weekend, one of the ones I’m concerned about is the TSX and the ishares for the TSX 60. The TSX is traded up to previous resistance on the daily chart and the weekly charts. That’s also true for the ishares for the TSX 60. Our Magic number is 31.25 on the daily and weekly chart, and we closed at 31 23. We closed very close to where we opened this week. Looking to see if we can break out above the recent highs from earlier this year. If we go back to the TSX chart and look at the daily chart, two lines up takes us up to 21,250. If we can start breaking out above resistance and above the highs from back in April, then looking two lines up is realistic.

That would be one line on the weekly chart, so 21,250. Then if we look at the ishares for the TSX 60, if we can take out the high from April, then 32.03 would be our next target and 32.03 would be our next target on the weekly chart as well. That’s where I think the markets could go if we can punch through the resistance that we’re dealing with right now. To do that, I’m pretty sure we’d have to see commodities continue to move higher. Of course, if they’re moving higher, that means inflation is still an issue. Looking at the VIX, and the VIX is still on a weekly sell signal that’s supportive for higher stock prices. The VIX is a bit harder to deal with at the moment because it’s contracted so much. So on the weekly chart, we are looking for a close this coming Friday above $16.45. When we look at the daily chart, I really want to break out above the top of the fly paper channel, which is currently at $17 and change. On the daily right side chart, we had a wild day on Thursday. We made a new low, came back, closed above the upper channel line, and then reversed all that on Friday.

So we’re back to where we were on Wednesday according to the VIX. Now, when we look at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see in April we came down and we were range bound for a couple of months. Then in June we came down. Now we’ve been range bound for a couple of months, and now we’re looking to see if we can break out of the range. The recent low was 12.73. The recent high was 17.08. Now we’re looking to see if we will break out of that. If we break down, that is bullish for the stock market. If we start breaking out above 17.08, of course, that would be bearish for the stock market. Last up, the seven stocks to watch. Nothing broke this week, so the stock market has not broken. Inside week for Apple, making a new closing high. Big up week for Alphabet. Then we had Amazon after dipping in the channel, it came back and closed higher on the week. Meta made a new high on Friday, had a wild week. Then looking at Microsoft, Microsoft peaked last week. It came back this week. So Microsoft looks like it’s the weakest stock of the seven.

Then looking at NVIDIA, we had a new closing high for NVIDIA this week. And then looking at Tesla, Tesla had a fairly quiet week, still trading above the upper channel line. No change in trend for Tesla. Okay, folks, that’s all I wanted to say for this weekend. No major trend changes. The VIX is in a very tight range, looking for a breakout of that range. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of July, and the next time you’ll hear my voice is on August first or Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, July 30, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Friday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. We do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30. That could certainly change that. We also have gold trading higher on Friday morning.

I printed off a couple of weekly charts this morning just to see where we were. And for the week, the Dow is up just .16 percent or 55 points. The S&P 500 is up .02% and possibly putting in a bearish reversal week. We just have to see how Friday ends then. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, a little more strength there, up a quarter of a percent.

Now last week we put in a bearish reversal week, so that signal is going to stay there until we close above last week’s high, which of course we haven’t done so just yet. Then the TSX not looking very good here. Possible bearish reversal week. We’re down zero .79%, so less than 1%. But we ran up to resistance and looks like that resistance is still holding us in check.

And if we look at the pros and the public across the bottom, starting with the Dow S and P 500, Nasdaq 100, and then looking at the TSX, you can see the TSX is the weakest of the major indices that we follow. Now looking at the fear index, it had a wild day yesterday. It got pushed down to new lows on US GDP news and then ran right up and ended the day on a buy signal off of news from the bank of Japan. Now we are still under the Fly Paper Channel, so nobody’s going to get overly anxious just yet. The VIX is starting to trend higher.

We’ll have to see if that trend continues on Friday. And of course, if we start breaking out above the Fly Paper channel, that would certainly be a big negative sign for the market. Now it was news from the bank of Japan that caused the market to shake in the afternoon. The Japanese yen moved up. We saw huge moves in other currencies, including the US dollar index, which traded all the way down to the lower channel line yesterday before breaking out above this week’s high.

Similar situation in the opposite direction for the euro. So a lot of movement there. And then we saw bond yields, whether you’re looking at the five, the ten or the 30 year bond yields, all moved up yesterday and that’s what shook the market. Looking at the price of gold, it was down yesterday over $24. It is up $9 last time I checked in.

The pre market price of silver also came down back on a sell signal. And so when we look at the Dow, the Dow traded down to the upper channel line yesterday, so holding up fairly well. Looking for a close on Friday below 349.35 then looking at the SPY, we’re looking for a close on Friday below 450.53 to give us a sell signal for the Nasdaq 100. And again, we’re looking to see if we can break out above last week’s high to get rid of that bearish reversal signal. We’re still on a buy signal here that would change on Friday with a close below 375.64.

Semiconductors still on a sell signal, no change there. There is news in the semiconductor sector this morning with intel coming out with earnings. And of course, the numbers I’m going to talk about are old by the time you see this video. But we’re coming into Friday on a buy signal. We’re trading up over 7% in the pre market.

And if we look at our next price target, we are trading above that right now. So if you’ve got an order in at 35.94, that’s going to get filled at the open. Our next mathematical target is 37.50, but we’re trading just under the high from back in June of 37.11. So I wouldn’t have had an order in at 37.50. I would have had it in just below the 30 7.11 area, and that could possibly get filled this morning after the market opens.

Now, the TSX pulled back yesterday. It closed below the previous day’s low, which is not a good sign. And so on Friday, we’re looking for a close below 30.95. We are trading higher in the pre market this morning, so we’ll have to see how the market reacts after those economic numbers come out. Again, we’re coming up to month end, so automatic money is going to hit the market.

That usually provides a cushion if there is any significant bad news. Now, I got a question yesterday about Ark Innovations and the ETFs have traded with the market. No doubt about it. They’ve had a nice move up on Ark Innovations. You can see across the bottom of the screen when we had low risk buying opportunities.

I’ve got no problem with anybody trading any of the Arc Innovations ETFs. My criticism has always been about her money management skills and the fact she gave up all of this profit. The ETF was trading up at 160. Yesterday, it closed at 46.80. That’s where my criticism is.

Her stock picking skills are pretty incredible. She’s somebody interesting to follow. But she did leave all that money on the table. Looking at commodity prices, crude oil made a new high for this move, heading up to the highs from back in April. We’ve got gasoline making a new closing high yesterday, not a good sign for the inflation picture.

And natural gas pulled back yesterday. It’s back on a sell signal. Natural gas, of course, known as the hardest thing to trade. Looking at the TSX energy sector, we ran up to our next price target at 15.63. This is where we topped out in April.

We pulled back that gave us a bearish reversal signal, did not close below the previous day’s low. So not overly concerned just yet. Similar price pattern for the US. For the spider ETF. We’re trying to get to 87. 50.

We’re able to do that in April. We were not able to do that yesterday. And again, while prices reversed, we didn’t close below the previous day’s low. Always one of the first things I look for. Now, the GLD rolled over yesterday, joining Palladium already on a sell signal.

Platinum is back on a sell signal, so is the price of Silver. And then we’ve got gold stocks in the GDX rolling over. Back on a sell signal. The SIL is back on a sell signal and the XGD is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Let’s finish off with a quick look at technology stocks starting on the TSX.

BlackBerry is still on a sell signal. Constellation Software still on a buy signal. That would change on Friday with a close below yesterday’s low. Lightspeed still on a sell signal. Shopify still on a sell signal.

No change there. Now, Apple reversed yesterday, still on a buy signal here that would change on Friday with a close below 191.76. Amazon drove up to the upper channel line yesterday before reversing and closing just up a dime on the day, so no change in trend. Meta, of course, was the big news yesterday, but that is a very bearish looking bar. We did trade higher and then came back.

We actually closed below our price target, 311.10. And that’s a bearish sign of bearish reversal day for Meta for sure. And if we look at what the pros and the public are doing, they’re not going in the right direction right now. So, looks like we had some short covering yesterday and then some selling going into the close. Similar situation for Alphabet.

On Thursday, it popped, on Wednesday, it got some fall through to the upside at the open, but then ended the day just up $0.13. So we ran up, hit our next price target at 131.25, and that is holding us in check at the moment. Yesterday was a bearish reversal day for Alphabet, and you can see the pros and the public not going in the right direction. Now, Microsoft made a new low for this move, as did Netflix. Nvidia traded through the upper channel line during the day, but came back and closed in the channel.

So no buy signal just yet for Nvidia. That could change on Friday with intel trading up in the pre market. And last up, Tesla ended the day lower still on a sell signal. Things would change on Friday for Tesla with a close above 277.33. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday July 28, 2023