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Stock Market Timing – 08022023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. So so far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Wednesday morning. I don’t think it’s going to be enough to generate new buy signals for the major indices, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Now, Tuesday was an interesting day. Most of the major indices were down except the DOW and the DOW was led higher by Caterpiller, which was up over $23 in closing at the high of the day. So quite an incredible move for Caterpiller. Now, on the back of that big move from Caterpiller, the DOW was able to remain positive all day. And we’re looking for a close for the DOW Diamond s below $351.49 on Wednesday. Not expecting that to happen. And of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. What didn’t work on the DO? Well, it was Verizon was the big loser. Now, Verizon’s had great recovery off the recent low. The recovery was not positive enough to generate a buy signal.

We did run up to resistance at $34.38 and stopped. And now it looks like we’re going to come back down and retest the low down at 31.25. Notice that from the time that Verizon started to recover here, that the pros showed no interest in taking control. So that was a warning sign that this was just a short covering rally and it has now started to fade. What else didn’t work on the DOW? Well, Walgreens and Merck, both already on cell signals, led the DOW lower yesterday. Notice Merck traded right back down to the recent low, and we’ll have to see if that low holds on Wednesday. Also notice that we put in a high here, then a lower high, and now another lower high, which of course is bearish. Looking at the SPY, we need a close below 452.20 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. For the Triple Qs, we’re looking for a close below 377.36. For the IWM, we’re looking for a close below 194.14. And for the IWC, for the microcap stocks, we’re looking for a close below 112.58. Next up, let’s take a look at the fear index. And historically, I would tell you that a close above 1426 would be negative for the stock market.

We saw some selling yesterday. We’re going to see some selling today. We really need to give the VIX more room right now. It’s in a tight range. You can see across the bottom here. Yeah, we popped a couple of weeks ago, but really didn’t get anywhere. And so I’m really looking for a breakout above 17. If that were to happen, that would probably correspond directly with new daily sell signals for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, etc. So we need to give the VIX a little more room at the present time. Next up, looking at crypto, we’re still on a daily sell signal for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. And then for the major Bitcoin stocks, Coinbase and Marathon, they are still on sell signals, so that has not changed. Then looking at the big cap tech stocks, we’re still waiting for Apple. Apple’s got earnings out later in the week, and so investors may wait until those earnings come out before they decide what to do next. You can see the pros in the public are currently taking profits right now. That has not been enough to affect the overall price. They’ve been able to sell into some strength up here, but they are liquidating at the moment.

Then looking at Amazon, Amazon’s on a buy signal from just two days ago. We had quite a wild week last week for Amazon. We need to close below 129.49 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. A lot of times when you want to hold on a stock longer, so let’s say that you got in on the right side and now you want to continue to hold for an event or quarterly earnings or dividend payment, etc. It’s often wise to move from the right side to the mid term chart. You’ve been in there a while and so now you want to give the stock a little more breathing room. Right now, we would need a close below 127 on the midterm chart versus 129.49 on the right side chart. Then looking at who’s in control, you can see that the pros gave up control last week. Then they took control again, but again, it does not look like they want the stock to go much higher from here. Then looking at Alphabet, we had that big pop, and now I’m expecting to come back and fill that gap at some time over the next couple of weeks.

Then looking at Meta, Meta is still on a buy signal up here. It popped last week on earnings, and now we’re looking for a close on net Wednesday below 303.60. And you can see the pros are still in control, no change there. Then looking at Microsoft, we’re still on a sell signal here looking for a close above 345.70 on Wednesday to give us a new buy signal. Currently holding support at 328.13. If that breaks, then 312.50 would be our next target to the downside. Then looking at NVIDIA, still on a buy signal here that would change on Wednesday with a close below 452.61. If we can take out the June high, then $500 would be our next target. Looking down, of course, if we break 437.50, then 406.25, and then 375 come into play, and 375 is at the top of the open gap. Then looking at Tesla, Tesla is still on a sell signal. On Wednesday, we’re looking for a close above $273.04. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation looking at the major commodity the ETFs. And the energy sector had a small pullback on Tuesday, starting off with the crude oil. You can see a very small pullback there.

A small pullback for gasoline. Gasoline had an inside day or a day of indecision. Natural gas, unfortunately, is still on a daily sell signal, filling a gap on Tuesday. We are looking to see if 6.64 will hold. It is a a bearish picture here. Yes, we made a higher high in June. We certainly made a higher high from the May high, but now in July, we put in a lower high, and now we’re going to have to see if support at 6.64 holds. If it breaks, then 6.25 comes into play. Looking at the energy ETFs, the X LE had a small pullback yesterday. Oil and gas equipment had a small pullback, as did the Explorers, and as did the small cap energy stocks. But certainly not concerned about possible sell signals on Wednesday unless the energy sector collapses. But that’s not what we’re seeing in the premarket this morning. The GLD is still on a sell signal, no change there. The SLV has come back and is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at the miners themselves, the GDX is still on a sell signal, no change there. No change for the junior miners.

And unfortunately, we’ve got the silver miners back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Still looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, August 2, 2023

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