Author: admin

• Weakness expected this week but not aggressive selling.
• Bullish bias expected due to month-end, quarter-end, and holidays.
• VIX close above $14.52 needed for buy signal.
• Dow down for six days due to Walgreens, already on a sell signal.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq on sell signals as of Monday’s close.
• Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft back on sell signals.
• Apple still on buy signal while Amazon hit next price target.
• Commodity prices for crude oil and gasoline are sloppy.
• Natural gas hit next price target, gold and silver quiet

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing and Television. Well, it’s Sunday evening. Stock Index futures have opened. With all that going on in Russia this weekend, stock index futures are pretty firm. DOW futures currently up 45 points. So far, the stock index futures are not reacting to what’s going on in Russia at all. Maybe they know more than the rest of the world does, but that’s the current situation. Now, I’m very concerned about the weakness in financials, and we saw interest rates rise around the world this week. They went up in Canada, they went up in the UK, they went up in Australia. So we are seeing pressure on interest rates. And of course, we’re still looking for a recession, which I guess everybody is just trying to push out as far as humanly possible. But you can see US financials pulled back, Canadian financials pulled back, and it’s really sad to see this lower high here. And then we started to pull back. Now, what we have to worry about is do we hold support here? We came down a couple of weeks ago at the end of May and retested the areas of support from back in March.

And now, let’s see what happens this week, see if we can find some support or if we keep going. Now, regional banks were the big losers on the week in the US, and of course, we’re not looking to invest in US regional banks. We are just looking at it as an indicator, hoping that there is not a financial crisis caused by regional bank failure. That is still a possibility. Now, looking at the seasonality chart, we had selling all week, and that basically lines up with the seasonality I would have expected it to start a lot earlier than it did this week. But from here to the end of the month, it’s usually positive. And of course, coming into month end is usually bullish, coming into long weekends, and we do have some holidays coming up on both sides of the border, which usually has a bullish bias. So we’ll just have to see what happens. Now, the VIX is still very bullish. If you’re a long term investor, we’re going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not start closing above 18.57 this coming Friday. If you’re trading the market, we’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX doesn’t close above 14.59 on Monday.

And of course, if that doesn’t happen on Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now, I saw this chart this week. This is from JP Morgan. It’s a squeeze indicator, and they’re looking at market sentiment, and we’re very overbought at the moment. And last time we were this overbought was back in January. And if we look at the fly paper channel chart and we go back to that peak in January, you can see how much of a sell off we got. And if we map that out over on the right-hand side, you see that takes us down towards 400. Mathematically speaking, you can see we start going down two lines 421, 414.06, a lot of support. Well, it was previous resistance, which on the way back down should be expected to act as support. So that would certainly be a legitimate target to the downside for a pullback. Of course, if we keep going below that, then that’s a stronger indication that the market is going into a longer term downtrend. And of course, if we start breaking 400, that is certainly going to be a huge signal to the market.

Now, this is a heat map of the S&P 500 year to date. And if you look at what’s been working, these are the stocks we talk about nearly every day, those big cap tech stocks. Notice the rest of the market not really participating. And look at how big these squares and rectangles are. That’s the market cap. That’s the overall value of the shares of the company that are trading. And you can see that if you just take Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, these are huge components of the market. And if they start to roll over, they’re just going to crush everybody else out there. So that is certainly a major concern that this market is still very thin on the way up. There’s just not that many stocks really participating right now. Now, looking at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50 day moving average, as you would expect, the Nasdaq is leading. 64 % of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading above their 50 day moving average. It comes down a bit when you look at the S&P 500. It comes down more when you look at the DOW 30, and it comes down a lot more when you’re looking at the TSX.

Of course, the TSX is being weighed down by a lot of weak commodity stocks at the moment, but also the banking stocks are not doing well. So Canadian market doesn’t have the diversification that the US market has. Now, when we look at a weekly chart of the major ETFs that we follow, you can see the queues had an inside week, but then when you look at the semiconductors, they were down over 4.5 % on the week and closed below the previous week’s low. So that’s a bearish sign. It looks like semiconductors may have peaked this week, but we’re not seeing that in NVIDIA. Nvidia was down on the week just 1.13 % and certainly did not close below the previous week’s low. Nvidia made a new high this week with a very small pullback. Looking at the S&P 500, it also had an inside week. Inside weeks, of course, are weeks of indecision. The market is waiting for additional informationbefore it makes a bigger move. And of course, in the S&P 500, you’ve got Tesla still holding up fairly well. Tesla traded up into that open gap. It traded above the open gap, which of course is now closed.

But you can see that that gap area has acted as an area of resistance for the market. Next up, we’re looking at the DOW. And of course, in 2023, the DOW is trailing the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. We pulled back this week, closed below the previous week’s low, and once again, we failed to break out above 343.75. This is an area of resistance that’s been in place for a year now, and that looks like it’s the top for this particular move, but we’ll just have to wait and see. What’s not working on the DOW in 2023? Well, the biggest loser has been 3M followed by Walgreens, followed by Chevron. What’s been working on the DOW? Well, of course, let’s just point at Apple. Apple made a new high this week at 187.56. Our next price target was 187.50. So chitchat, you got to lock in some profits up there. Congratulations. Now looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, we’ve been on a sell signal for five weeks now. We made a new closing low this week and you can see we’re breaking down below 29.69. Our next price target and the next potential area of support is at 28.91. You can see that it acted as support earlier in the year.

What’s working on the TSX? Well, once again, we have to go back to technology with Shopify being the big winner in 2023, followed by Open Text. Open Text is looking pretty Bearish right now. We’ve been down three weeks in a row. It looks like we’ve put in a top, waiting for a sell signal with a close below 52. 68. This coming Friday. Then our next winner for 2023 is Kominko. Looking like it put in a top two weeks ago, and we’ll have to see if we can continue to move lower from here. Now looking at the losers for 2023 on the TSX 60, Nutrien has been the big loser, followed by Cenovus, followed by Pembina Pipeline which put in a new low for 2023 on Friday. Let’s finish off looking at commodities and starting off with energy. We had crude oil down just under 3 % on the week, so no change in trend there. Natural gas was up on the week and is back on a buy signal as of Friday’s close. Then looking at the metals, we had a reversal in copper, so still on a weekly sell signal, no change there. A lower low for gold and a lower low for gold and a lower low for silver.

So no help to the mining stocks from commodity prices this week. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Thank you very much for your time and attention. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, June 25, 2023

Good Morning. It’s Stephen White side here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board, being led lower by the Nasdaq. So we may see some additional sell signals on Friday if the market continues in that direction throughout the day. We’ve already seen a bunch of sell signals, but not for the big cap stocks that the world has been following over the past few months. Now, the Nasdaq has traded in the channel for the past two days, so certainly a possibility of a sell signal on Friday with a close below 358.97. Now, the chip sector rolled over the other day, so we do have the stocks index on a sell signal. A good example is AMD, which has been on a sell signal for the last four days, followed by Intel, which just generated a sell signal. While NVIDIA had an inside day on Thursday looking for a close on Friday below 406.36. Next up, we’re looking at Apple and we need a close on Friday below 181.85. We made a new high on Thursday and we’re trying to get to 187.50. Unfortunately, we only got to 187.05, so did not hit our next price target.

Then looking at Amazon, Amazon made a new high yesterday off the back of some AI News. Looking for a close below 123.81. Our next price target is 131.25. Looking at Meta, Meta’s had a quiet couple of days this week. We’re looking for a close below 271.15. For Google, Google has been on a sell signal for a couple of weeks now looking for a close above 124.70 to give us a buy signal on Friday. Looking at Microsoft, we’ve been trading in the channel past couple of days. We need a close below 332.29. Then looking at Netflix, sitting right on the edge of a new sell signal, we need a close on Friday below 420.56. Then looking at Shopify in New York, we need a close below 62.08 on Friday. And in Toronto, we’re looking for a close below 82.94. And last up, Tesla, which dipped into the channel yesterday before closing higher on the day, looking for a close below 244.45 to give us a sell signal on Friday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, June 23, 2023

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Now, back in March, we had the big decline in regional banks, and that put downward pressure on financial sectors in markets around the world. Since then, the market has been mostly focused on the nice, bright, shiny objects in the tech sector. Those big caps tech stocks such as NVIDIA are still holding up fairly well. That’s holding up the Nasdaq 100, which dipped into the channel yesterday.

So we may see a sell signal in the Nasdaq 100 on Friday with a close below 358.97 for the triple Q’s. Now, regional banks made the big decline in March, seemed to stabilize, then continue to trade lower in May, and they’ve come back in June. But that has come to an end. So in the month of June, we ran back up to previous resistance and started to pull back. I guess the big $64,000 question is, will we hold the lows from May or will we continue lower?

Now, if we go back a month, we started to break out above a downtrend line, and our target would have been the Fly Paper channel, which was continuing to move lower daily. And then here’s the current chart. We moved up to the Fly Paper channel, started to pull back, and now we’re breaking down below an uptrend line. And so that is a bearish sign. So we’re looking to see if we can move back down to test the recent lows.

Looking at US bank stocks, the major banks are back on sell signals right now. Canadian Financials, Canadian banks, you’ll notice that we recently put in a lower high, so that’s a very bearish sign ran up to fill an open gap and started to pull back. Looking at Canadian banks. Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC National Bank, Royal Bank, and now the TD Bank, which is also now back on a sell signal.

What’s holding up? The Bank of Montreal did trade through the lower channel line yesterday, but did not close below it. So looking for a close below 117.05 on Friday to give us a sell signal for the bank of Montreal. Looking at us. Banks, and we’re looking at the major ones here.

Bank of America, bank of New York, citigroup. JPMorgan, wells Fargo. All back on sell signals. We also have Goldman Sachs, which is on its third day of a sell signal. So not a pretty picture here.

Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, taking a look at credit card stocks. And American Express is more of a bank than a credit card company, but it is back on a sell signal. We’ve got Capital One on a sell signal now. Discovery, Mastercard and Visa are still on buy signals, so looks like the credit card companies are holding up much better than the banks at the present time. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

Have a great day.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, June 23, 2023

Good morning everyone and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here in the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. So so far it looks like we are going to see some selling at the Open on Thursday morning. Let’s start off this morning’s presentation looking at the VIX. And the VIX made a new closing low yesterday, so options traders are not phased by anything going on.

Looking for a close on Thursday above 14.88 to give us a buy signal. Now we did see a pullback in chip stocks and we’ve got the SOX Index back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. We also have cloud computing stocks and social media stocks back on sell signals. Now looking at the chip sector, Advanced Micro Devices is on its third day of a sell signal. We’ve seen intel a pullback for the past couple of days and yesterday it closed down at the lower channel line.

So a close below 32.88 would give us a sell signal on Thursday. And then we’ve got Texas Instruments back on a sell signal. As of Wednesday’s close, Nvidia is still holding up fairly well, trading above the upper channel line. Things would change on Thursday with a close below 402.36. Then looking at the QQQ’s, they traded back into the channel.

So we certainly have a possibility of a sell signal in the queues on Thursday with a close below 358.18. Then looking at Canadian tech stocks, they have rolled over and are back on a sell signal. It’s not Shopify, which could end Thursday on a sell signal. We’ve got BlackBerry making a new low on Wednesday, we’ve got Constellation Software back on a sell signal, we’ve got Lightspeed back on a sell signal. Then we’ve got Nuvei making a new low for this move.

So it’s been on a sell signal for over a month now and we’ve got OpenText making a new low for this move and Telus International also making a new low for this move. Then looking at the DOW, it traded back into the channel again. So down to the lower channel line, we need a close below 338.38 on Thursday to give us a sell signal for the DOW. For the SPY, we’re looking for a close below 431.69. And then looking at the Russell and the Ishares for the NMicrocap sector, both trading down to the lower channel line.

So we could certainly see sell signals in both of those two sectors. On Thursday, looking at the Canadian market, second day of a sell signal, we’ve filled the open gap, so that’s no longer potential support. Yesterday’s big loser was the Real Estate sector. And of course this has a lot to do with interest rates. Canadian real estate making a new low for this move.

You can see Choice made a new low yesterday. It actually recovered and closed slightly higher on the day. Crombie making a new low new low for Rio Can. A big sell off yesterday for Northwest Healthcare down over 11% on the day. Now, speaking of interest rates, the bank of England raised their benchmark interest rate this morning, and that’s helping put downward pressure on stock index futures this morning.

Looking at the SPDR Financial ETF, we’re still on a buy signal that would change on Thursday with a close below 32.95. We do have US banks and US Regional Banks on sell signals. We’ve got the Broker Dealers back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. And then we’re looking at insurance stocks which actually closed higher on the day. Looking for a close below 32.65 on Thursday to give us a sell signal.

Canadian financials rolled over yesterday. Canadian banks back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. We’ve been watching manualife breakdown this week. Heading lower. We’ve got Sun Life back on a sell signal.

We’ve got Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CIBC back on a sell signal. We’ve got Laurentian Bank back on a sell signal. TD bank still holding up. We’re looking for a close on Thursday below 79 34. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation.

Taking a look at commodity prices and no joy, no change in trends from Wednesday’s trading action. We had a new low for the GLD. It’s trading lower in the pre market this morning. The SLV has gapped lower for the past two days and starting to trade below the May low. Looking at stocks, the Ishares for the global TSX Global Gold Index made a new low yesterday.

New low for the GDX, new low for the SIL. And then looking at energy, we had crude oil move up yesterday. It’s trading lower this morning. We had natural gas trade up. Having an inside day.

It’s trading lower this morning. So we don’t expect much movement in energy stocks, whether you’re looking at the Canadian or US market on Thursday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We are expecting some selling at the open on Thursday morning. Have a great day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, June 22, 2023

Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here in the pre market this morning things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are slightly below fair value, but not enough that anyone will notice. Commodities are also mixed and very quiet in the pre market, so not looking for a lot of excitement at 9:30 Wednesday morning. Now the VIX moved up yesterday, but not enough to give us buy signal.

That would happen on Wednesday with a close above 15.03. And of course if that were to happen, that would change our outlook on the market from short term bullish to short term bearish. Now the VIX of the VIX is on a buy signal right now and moved away from the channel yesterday. So that could be an early warning signal. We’ll just have to keep an eye on that.

Now the Dow was down just under three quarters of a percent yesterday, it traded and closed in the channel. So we certainly have a mathematical possibility of a sell signal on Wednesday with a close below 338 three. Then what didn’t work on the Dow? Well, the biggest loser was intel with a big outside reversal day. We saw some aggressive selling in Nike which pulled us back into the channel, and some very aggressive selling in Boeing, which is now back on a daily sell signal as of Tuesday’s close.

The S&P 500 was down on the day just a little over half a percent. Still trading and closing above the upper channel line. The Nasdaq on the other hand, was down just a little over a quarter of a percent. And those big cap tech stocks are still holding us up. Semiconductors pulled back into the channel, so a close below 212.16 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday and that certainly wouldn’t help the overall market.

Nvidia and Tesla both closed higher on the day, new closing high for Nvidia and a big new closing high for Tesla. Then looking at regional banks, they are back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. And of course we’re not trading the regional banks, we’re just keeping an eye on them. But yeah, we’re back on a sell signal. Not a good sign for the overall market.

Now looking at the Canadian market, we are back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Being Led lowered by gold stocks, followed by materials, then the energy sector and then the global mining stocks all pulled back yesterday. So commodities not helping the Canadian market at all. Now looking at gold stocks, the biggest one of course is Barrack, which made a new closing low yesterday. We also saw a big aggressive selling in Wheaton.

Then looking at Manual Life, the most actively traded stock on Monday, we were looking to see if it could hold $25. It did not. So looking for Manual life to continue lower from here. And the most actively traded stock yesterday was CIBC, which is now back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. We also saw Suncor sell off.

It is also back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Now we’ve been keeping a close eye on the TD bank, which is still on a buy signal. And of course it moved up to the top of the open gap and started to pull back. Not an aggressive pullback so far on Wednesday we’re looking for a close below 79.19, otherwise we’re looking to see if we can break out above 81.25. Let’s finish off today’s presentation.

Looking at commodity prices and we saw a small pullback for copper, but still on a buy signal. No change there. Gold had a new closing low yesterday, so we are down a couple of dollars in the pre market, but not aggressive selling. Then looking at silver. Silver rolled over on Tuesday.

It had been on a buy signal for the month of June and that ended yesterday. Then looking at the energy sector, we had a small pullback in crude oil. No change in trend. And a big reversal day for natural gas. Putting in a bearish reversal.

That’s where we topped back in May with a bearish reversal signal. The pros did take control. Natural gas is actually up in the pre market this morning. Not enough to erase yesterday’s losses, but we’re not seeing continuation to the downside on Wednesday morning. And then looking at corn.

Corn to making a new high yesterday before closing unchanged. And Wheat moved up and made a new high for this move on Tuesday. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We’re looking for a fairly quiet open at 9:30 Wednesday morning. Have a great day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, we’ve got stock index futures and commodities trading lower this morning, so we are looking for a little settling at the open on Tuesday morning. Well, in 2023, neither the US market or the Canadian markets are following the seasonal patterns at the moment. Yesterday was officially a golf day for the Canadian market. US markets were closed. If we look at the ishares for the TSX 60, which are normally the most popular ETF in Canada, on Friday, we had nearly three and a half million shares traded. Yesterday, it was just over 600,000. So you know that Bay Street was empty yesterday. Interesting when you look at this chart, you can see that the top of that open gap has been holding us in check. Yes, we’ve traded slightly above it. We haven’t closed above it just yet. So unfortunately, that open gap is holding us in check, looking for a close on Tuesday below $30.21 to give us a sell signal. Now, a quick look at the US market. The VIX is still on a sell signal that would change on Tuesday with a close above $15.14. And that would turn us from short term bullish to short term bearish.

Now, Friday was a bearish reversal day for the US market. But if we look at the DOW, you can see we didn’t close below the previous day’s low, so no major damage was done. On the S&P 500, we had an inside day, bearish reversal day for the Nasdaq. Again, we didn’t close below the previous day’s low, unlike the chip sector, which actually did. And so the chips have been leading the US markets higher, and we’ll have to see if that continues. Now, we’ve been watching the Regional Banks closely, not for investment opportunities, but just to keep an eye on them and see if the financial crisis is over. I would say it isn’t. Yeah, we’ve moved off the bottom, but we haven’t really gotten anywhere. We’re still trading at levels that we started to see back in early March. So resistance is still holding us in check at 43.75. Yeah, we’ve traded above it slightly, but we haven’t broken away from it. So that is a sign of caution for the market. And then the most actively traded stock on Friday was once again Tesla, which put in a new high. And again, we’ll be watching Tesla closely every day.

Next up, let’s take a look at the major Canadian leveraged ETFs, and we don’t follow all of them. Some of them are very thinly traded. The TSX bull is still on a buy signal that would change on Tuesday with a close below 18.27. And for the bear ETF, we’re looking for a close above 7.10 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. That is certainly possible. Now, not expecting any trend changes in the US market for the S&P 500 or for the Nasdaq on Tuesday. Need to get a little closer to those channel lines before we’re concerned about a change in trend. Now, Energy stocks. The bull gave us a sell signal last week. The bear gave us a buy signal. No trend has really started just yet. And then looking at the gold miners, the bear ETF still on a buy signal. Gold is trading lower this morning, so I would expect this ETF to continue to move higher on Tuesday. And then, of course, looking at the bull ETF, we need to close on Tuesday above $14.17. Not expecting that to happen given what we see in the pre market for stocks and for the price of gold.

Next up, let’s take a look at the Canadian financial sector. Yes, we do have the financial index and the bank index both back on buy signals. Unfortunately, the bank index has run into the top of the open gap. Yeah, we traded above it, so it has been filled, but it’s still acting as resistance up here at 3,800. Now, the most actively traded financial stock for Monday’s trading action was Manulife, which is still holding support at $25. If that breaks, then $24.22 is our next target to the downside. Now, the national bank had a nice pop, but unfortunately, it ran into resistance at 100, and the pros still have not taken control. We have the TD Bank, which is also dealing with an open gap, and you can see there at 81.25, the top of the gap is just below that, and that’s holding us in check. Again, we’ve had a buy signal here. Things are blue, but the pros still have not taken control. At least they’re not fighting us, but unless they take control, the trend is not going to last very much longer. Power Corp was the next most actively traded financial. Yes, it generated a buy signal on Thursday.

Unfortunately, it pulled back on Monday. So a close below 34.90 on Monday would give us a sell signal. Again, the pros have not taken the bait so far. And last up, Bank of Nova Scotia. It’s been treading water for quite a while. Pros in the public are intertwined. We’re stuck in a range here, so we’re looking for a breakout of the range. You can see the 100 day moving average has been holding us in check. We’ve got the 200, the 100, the 50, and the 10 day moving averages here. So it is the 100 day moving average that has held us in check for the past month or so. And if you want to give the stock a bit more breathing room, then look for a breakout above $68 to tell us that new money is coming back into this stock. Let’s finish off today’s presentation taking a look at Canadian Gold stocks and starting off with the TSX Global Gold Index. It had an inside day on Monday. We saw a new closing low yesterday for Barrick. We’ve got Agnico Eagles still on a sell signal inside day yesterday. Inside day for B2 Gold.

Then we had a lower close yesterday for Franco Nevada. Kinross has been holding up very well over the past couple of weeks treading sideways, looking for a close on Tuesday above $6.55 to give us a buy signal. New gold inside day on Monday, no change there, no change for Wheaton, still on a sell signal. Now, not all gold stocks are on sell signals. The major ones are. There’s a lot of other ones that are not. I thought this one was interesting, Centerra. You can see that it traded up to the top of the open gap and pulled back. It hasn’t started to fall apart just yet. But if the top of the open gap is going to act as resistance, maybe the bottom of this gap here is going to act as support. We’ll just have to wait and see. But not all gold stocks are on sell signals, but certainly the major ones are. And last up for the price of gold itself, we’re looking for a close on Tuesday above $1983.60. So far, that’s not what’s working out in the premarket as gold is down about $6 last time I checked. Okay, folks, that is all for Tuesday morning.

Looking for a lower open on Tuesday. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Hello, everyone, it’s stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of stock market timing television. Well the market had a pretty good week. It digested the Fed announcement and continued to move higher. It is certainly out of sync with the seasonality charts and we use these as a guide. You don’t use them to actually trade place trades in the market.

It just using a seasonality chart right now. The seasonality chart tells us we should be making seasonal lows and that is certainly not the case at the moment. Now we did have a bearish reversal day on Friday for a lot of areas of the market, but it wasn’t a major sell off. So we did see some profit taking that could be the catalyst for more selling this week, but we don’t have any evidence of that right now. It is still the technology sector leading the market higher and tech stocks are back up at highs that we haven’t seen since late 2021.

So we are up at major resistance right now and it’ll be interesting to see how the market deals with that going forward. Chip stocks are still leading the way up nearly three and a half percent. AI stocks were up nearly four and a half percent on the week. Now looking at the VIX of the Fear Index, we made a new closing low on Friday, so we’re going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $19.29 this coming Friday. If you’re trading the market on Monday, we would remain bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.14 on Monday.

Looking at the Canadian market, the TSX had an inside week. It closed higher but still on a weekly sell signal. We saw financial stocks, we saw bank stocks both move up but still on sell signals. Then we saw the energy sector close down a little over 2%, so still treading water here. And then we had gold stocks down .88% on the week.

So yeah the financials were higher, but we saw commodity stocks trade lower. Then looking at the Nasdaq, new high for the Nasdaq, we’re trading up to the 375 level. If you look to the left you can see the Nasdaq started to fade just below that level back in early 2022. And then looking at the SPY, we’re up 2.22% on the week, starting to trade above the 375 level. 453.13 is our next target to the upside.

We did trade above that level back in the spring of 2022, but that’s where we topped out. So we’ll have to see how the S&P 500 deals with this going forward. Then looking at the Dow, the Dow unfortunately is still stuck at resistance, which it’s been dealing with for basically over a year now, up at the 343.75 level. So we’re looking to see if we can take out the high from back in late 2022. That’ll be interesting to see if that happens.

Regional banks pulled back this week, not a lot, but we had a couple of good up weeks for US regional banks and we still are waiting for a weekly buy signal. Then looking at mid cap, small cap stocks, they still traded higher, but there’s not a lot of enthusiasm. We did have a couple of really good weeks and then things started to fade this week and that’s probably not a good sign for the market going forward. Then looking at the Canadian market, mid caps, small caps and micro caps are all still on weekly sell signals, so no change in there. Obviously there’s a big difference between the Canadian and US markets.

A lot more technology stocks in the US, a lot more resource stocks in the Canadian market. Now looking at those big cap stocks, you’ve got Apple making new highs this week, you’ve got Meta making new highs up over 6%, you’ve got Microsoft up nearly 5%, you’ve got Nvidia up over 10%. Then you’ve got Tesla continuing to move higher up 6.6%, filling that open gap and trading above the 250 level. So 281.25 would be our next profit target for Tesla. Let’s finish off with commodities.

We saw copper trade up into the channel, so there’s a possibility of a buy signal for copper this week. No joy for gold, no joy for silver, both had inside weeks. We also had an inside week for palladium, and then platinum made a new low for this move, so no change in trends for any of the metals. And then looking at the energy sector, we saw crude oil make a reversal this week, it closed in the channel. So looking for a close this coming Friday on the USO above 66.69 to give us a buy signal.

Gasoline. Unfortunately, it’s on its second week of a buy signal and that’s not something you want to see going into the summer driving season. And then last up, we’ve got natural gas up 15.59% on the week, still on a weekly sell signal. That would change this coming Friday if we closed above $7.24. Okay folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, June 18, 2023

Happy Friday everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. We also have commodities trading higher in the pre market. So so far it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the Open on Friday morning. While yesterday’s trading action tells us that the market has really shrugged off everything the Fed had to say on Wednesday.

The VIX had a quiet day on Thursday. Looking for a close on Friday above 15.29. Big drop in the US dollar on Thursday. Big gain in the euro and the Canadian dollar made a new high for this move. So lots of movement in global currencies.

Now what worked yesterday? Well, the Dow, which was the big loser on Wednesday, was the big winner on Thursday and it was led higher by Microsoft making a new high on Thursday. Then we had the S&P 500 followed by the Nasdaq. So the Nasdaq did not lead us higher on Thursday. The world is still focused on AI and C3AI made a new high on Thursday. Then looking at Apple. Apple also put in a new high. I am still long. Apple with a partial position.

Then looking at the Canadian market, very quiet day for the Ishares for the TSX 60. We closed higher on the day while having an inside day. So a day of indecision. The Canadian market was led higher by energy which is still trading in the channel. It was an inside day for the energy sector.

So we’re still on a buy signal here. A lot of interest in energy on Thursday with natural gas shooting higher. It is higher again in the pre market this morning. So Nat Gas back on a buy signal that can help the energy sector. Financials also held up fairly well on Thursday.

Both financials and the banks themselves. We’re still dealing with a lot of open gaps. You’ll see that in a second. Manulife actually rolled over on Thursday. So while the rest of the financial sector was going higher, Manulife is back on a sell signal.

TD bank was up. It is trading up into the open gap there and we’ll have to see if we can break through so far we’ve been on a buy signal for five days now and the pros still have not taken control. So that’s a little bit of a concern, but certainly there’s no evidence of selling so far, but we do want the pros to come back and take control to get these stocks back on track. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. There wasn’t a lot new that happened on Thursday.

Lots of movement in the currency market. Otherwise the stock market is still going higher and still extremely overbought. Right now it’s very dangerous to take on new positions. But while I say that the market is still going higher and that is the fact, we have to deal with. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, June 16, 2023

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. DOW futures are below fair value. That might have something to do with UnitedHealthcare. Nasdaq futures are slightly above fair value.

So, so far it looks like we’re gonna have a quiet open on Wednesday. Today, of course, being Fed Day, I believe there’s probably about a 90% chance the Fed is going to pause today and not do anything. If you believe that, and we’re 100% right, that’s what the Fed is going to do today, that doesn’t really matter because we don’t know how the market is going to react to what the Fed does and what the Fed says in the press conference after the announcement. Now, the VIX had an inside day yesterday looking for a close above $15.66 on Wednesday. We still have the US.

Dollar index on a sell signal. No change there. 30 year bonds still on a sell signal. Bond yields still on a buy signal. No change there.

The price of gold’s been treading water for the past couple of weeks. Looking for a close on Wednesday above $1,988.40. Silver came down yesterday. Of course, silver has been leading the precious metals higher. Looking for a close below $23.58 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal.

Inside day yesterday for crude oil. Crude oil is trading up this morning that could help the Canadian market. Natural gas was up yesterday, looking for a close above 2.44. We’ve got some mixed signals here. On the previous run up, we actually broke out above the previous high, so that should be bullish.

At the same time, we came down and broke previous support and made a lower low, so that should be bearish. So we’ve got real mixed signals here. We’ve been in a long term downtrend for natural gas, and we’re hoping that it would have turned around by now, but that has not been the case. So looking for a close above $2.44 now, the Dow made a new closing high yesterday. It went up and hit our next price target.

The big winner on the Dow yesterday was Caterpillar. Looking at the S&P 500 new high. For the S&P 500. The big winner was the regional bank Comerica, up over 6%. Hard to notice that on the chart.

Then looking at the Nasdaq 100 new high. Big winner on the Nasdaq 100 was Rivian and then Semiconductors, making a new high as well. And we had Nvidia was one of the big winners on the SP 500, up nearly 4% on the day. New closing high for Nvidia. Then looking at the TSX, the Ishares for the TSX 60, closing half a cent above the upper channel line.

So we’re still on a buy signal here for the Ishares for the TSX 60. A big winner on the TSX 60 yesterday was Saputo, which was up over 4% on the day while the big loser on the TSX 60 was Shopify down 2.27%. Remember, we’re trying to break out above 87 50. If we can do that, 93 75 comes into play. Looking at those big cap technology stocks.

Apple still on a buy signal, very quiet trading on Tuesday. Then we’ve got Alphabet trading back in the channel. A close above 125.92 would give us a buy signal on Wednesday. Then looking at Amazon.

New high for Amazon on Tuesday. Then looking at Meta. Meta is still on a buy signal here. That would change on Wednesday with a close below 262.61. Then we’ve got Microsoft back on a buy signal.

Of course, this new buy signal would be considered a high risk buy signal and not expecting a lot to the upside, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Then we’ve got the chip stock that I watch most closely, advanced Micro Devices, making a new high yesterday before pulling back. Still closing above the upper channel line. We need to close on Wednesday below 118.64 to kick us out of AMD. And then Tesla made a new high for this move on Tuesday.

So no change in trend. I would imagine you’ve sold most of your position so far and you’re waiting to get kicked out. Not expecting to get kicked out on Wednesday. We need a close below 219.07, to give us a sell signal for Tesla. Not expecting that to happen.

And of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Not expecting a lot to happen this morning. Of course, we have no idea how the market’s going to react to whatever the Fed does this afternoon. Stay tuned.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, June 14, 2023