Author: admin

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

You. Hello everyone and welcome to Friday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. Well, it is Friday the 13th and there is a statistical anomaly that tells us that Friday the 13th are typically bearish. We’ll just have to wait and see how that works out. In the pre market this morning

stock index futures are trading below fair value, so we are looking for a little selling at the open on Friday morning. Today is an interesting day for us. It’s a memorable day. Our neighbor and good friend is turning 102 today, so we’re having a party for him this morning. Having a party for him this morning because he usually comes over at 10:30 for eleven z’s.

And so when he shows up for his regular visit, we’re going to have a bunch of people here. Not a big surprise party. You don’t want to surprise somebody too much who’s turning 102. But this man is incredibly active and still working. He’s got six books that he’s working on at the moment, so it’s going to be an exciting day for us.

And I’ve never been to birthday party for 102 year old before who is in very good shape. Now, yesterday there was a little disturbance in the force. We had bond yields shoot back up, we had the US dollar shoot back up. Both of those are negative for stocks. The VIX did not get back into the channel at the close.

It had a wild day and an outside reversal day. But while it closed higher on the day, it didn’t close in the channel and certainly nowhere near the upper channel line. So on Friday if the VIX were to close above $18.88, that would be very bearish for the overall stock market. Now, with the kefuffle in bond yields yesterday, we did see a lot of bearish reversal days notice when we’re looking at the SP 500, the pros have not taken control so far. So I was assuming we were going to get a rally into the middle of the month and unless the pros come in and take control, that rally would fizzle.

Whether we come back down and retest or take out. The recent lows, of course, is yet to be determined. A market can move up and then just tread water to work off some of the overbought condition. But we’ve gone from extremely oversold to extremely overbought on a short term basis. Or our next target on the S&P 500 was 437.50.

We got as high as 437 34 yesterday, so right up to our next price target, not enough to fill that open gap. So some traders may be still interested in trying to fill the Open gap. Now the spy was able to close above the upper channel line once again, so did not close below the previous day’s low, so no major damage was done on Thursday. On Friday we’re looking for a close below 426.70 to give us a new daily sell signal. Not expecting that to happen from what we’re seeing in the pre market this morning.

Now, looking at the triple Q’s, our next price target was 375. That, of course, is still in play. Again, we had an outside reversal day yesterday, but did not close below the previous day’s low. So on Friday we’re looking for a close below $358.89. And again, not expecting that to happen on Friday.

And of course, if it doesn’t happen, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. Now, what’s not working right now? Well, the Ishares for the Russell 2000 are back on a sell signal. The Ishares for the micro cap sector have not generated a buy signal just yet. So once again, when we move away from those big cap tech stocks, the rest of the market is not doing very well at the moment.

Now, looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60, our next mathematical target was $30.08. Of course, you’ve got to take big round numbers into account and big round number right now would be $30. Is that acting as resistance? Well, the high of the day yesterday was 29.99. So, yes, $30 is acting as resistance at the moment.

Now, yesterday was a bearish reversal day for the Canadian stock market, using the TSX 60 as our guide. Notice the pros are not interested in taking control right now. So I think this rally that we’re seeing right now is probably going to end fairly soon. On Friday, we would need a close below $29.30 to give us a sell signal. Not expecting to see that happen on Friday.

Now, crude oil was down yesterday. It’s up in the pre market this morning. Now, even though crude oil closed lower yesterday, it was the energy stocks on both sides of the border that actually led the market higher on Thursday. Gold was also down slightly yesterday. It’s up in the pre market this morning, so gold stocks should probably be up on Friday as well.

What didn’t work yesterday? Well, the biggest losers were home builders, which are back on a sell signal. Now, that might reverse today depending on what bond yields do, but certainly the big move in bond yields put downward pressure on home builders on Thursday. And then biotechs were the next big losers from Thursday’s trading action. Now, the biggest loser on the S&P 500 from Thursday’s trading action was hormel down nearly 10% on the day, so certainly no change in trend there.

And then on the TSX it was K92. Mining was down over 12%, and again, no change in trend there. Now, we’re watching Tesla closely. Remember, Tesla has worked its way into this triangle, and so far we have not been able to break out above the top of the triangle just yet. So that’s a nice downtrend line that’s holding us in check in the pre market this morning.

We are trading down another couple of dollars. So that would be if we were to close there, that would be seeing this stock down the last three days in a row. We’re looking for a close on Friday below 251.65 to give us a new sell signal for Tesla. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Stock index futures are lower while commodities are higher this morning.

So we’re looking for a mixed open on Friday morning. The TSX may see a little more love than the US. Market on Friday. Have a great day, have a great weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, October 13, 2023

Hey, good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. That is, of course, before those economic numbers come out at 8:30. We’re expecting CPI and jobless claims to come out and either of those numbers could certainly affect the direction of the stock market coming into Thursday’s trading.

Fear is still falling and that of course, is supportive for higher stock prices. So let’s get into the charts now. The VIX continued to move lower on Wednesday, down 5.52% on the day. The VIX of the VIX is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices.

The US dollar index still on a sell signal, closing down just a penny yesterday. Then we’ve got the 30 year bond back on a buy signal. The yield on the 30 year bond back on a sell signal. The price of gold continue higher on Wednesday. Back on a buy signal.

We are waiting for the price of silver and it needs to close above $22.29 on Thursday to give us a buy signal. Looking at the price of crude oil, we came down, filled the gap yesterday. Now we’re moving up in the pre market, up a dollar and change. The price of natural gas had a wild day on Wednesday, but then settled down going into the close, looking at the Dow. The Dow had an inside day on Wednesday, as did the S&P 500.

S&P 500 trading in the open gap and still has not filled that gap just yet. The Nasdaq 100 made a new closing high for this move. The semiconductor is still on a buy signal. No change there. The Isares for the TSX 60 were up yesterday.

And not only was it the commodity stocks, but financials helped out as well. Then looking at financials, looking at the S&P 500 financials, we’re on a buy signal. We’re on a buy signal for US banks, for US regional banks, for broker dealers, and for the insurance sector. So all the US financials are back on buy signals. Looking at Canadian financials, we do have the financial index back on a buy signal, but we’re still waiting for banks.

We’re still looking at the Bank of Nova Scotia as the weakest. And we’ve got the TD bank back on a buy signal. Then looking at energy stocks, energy stocks in Canada were down slightly yesterday. We’re back on a buy signal here. Unlike in the US,

which was down over 1% and still on a sell signal. No change there for US financials. Copper miners pulled back slightly yesterday. Gold miners on both sides of the border continued to move higher on Wednesday. And then looking at those major tech stocks, we had Alphabet continue to break out above the September high.

We’ve got Amazon moving up to the bottom of the open gap. Then looking at Apple, Apple’s also got a gap to deal with and finding resistance at the 180 level. Then we’re looking at Meta making a new high for this move. We saw Microsoft continue to move higher on Wednesday and then we’ve got Nvidia making a new high for this move and then we’ve got Shopify pulling back now. Shopify has got an open gap so far that’s held us in check.

We’re still on a buy signal here. Looking at Shopify in New York. We’re looking for a close below 52.41 on Thursday to give us a sell signal. And then last up, Tesla. Tesla had an inside day on Wednesday, so no change for Tesla.

Still on a buy signal. That would change on Thursday with a close below 250.37 okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. I’m publishing this just before the economic numbers come out at 830.

And of course that could certainly change the direction of the market before those economics numbers come out. The market is fairly positive this morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, October 12, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:00:23]: TSX 60 and Energy Stocks on Buy Signal
[00:00:44]: Commodities Update and Potential Gold Buy Signal
[00:01:07]: Silver and Copper Market Analysis
[00:01:38]: Market Outlook and Inflation Numbers
[00:01:57]: Tech Stocks on Buy Signal with Some Pullbacks
[00:02:18]: Dollar Index and Bond Yields Impact on Stock Prices
[00:02:58]: Market Leadership and Sector Analysis
[00:03:26]: Stock Analysis through Fly Paper Channel
[00:04:11]: Analysis of Broken Stocks and Resistance Levels
[00:04:54]: Energy Stocks and Gold Stocks Analysis
[00:05:18]: Financial Institutions and Oil Stocks Analysis
[00:05:45]: Gold Stocks and BCE Analysis
[00:06:21]: Conclusion and Market Outlook

Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value, commodities are mixed. Crude oil is down while gold is up. Now we do have PPI numbers coming out this morning and of course that could potentially add some volatility to the market before it opens. Fear is falling right now.

We’ve got the VIX back on sell signal that of course is supportive for higher stock prices. Yesterday was an interesting day. The Canadian market played catch up and we’ve got the Ishares for the TSX 60 back on a buy signal. We’ve got energy stocks and we’ve got gold stocks back on a buy signal. Now I’m not sure this rally can last very long.

A lot of it is an overreaction to what happened on Monday. And if we look at the commodities you’re going to see some inside days here. Inside day for crude oil, inside day for natural gas, not an inside day for gold. It was up another $11 yesterday. Looking for a close on Wednesday above $1878 to give us a buy signal for gold.

And there we have Silver having an inside day on Tuesday as well. And then looking at the price of copper, it actually closed lower yesterday. So no overall enthusiasm from the copper market after the move up on Monday. Now besides the price of copper moving lower, there’s a lot of other stuff going on that may dampen the enthusiasm of this market. I think we may see the market move up until about the 15th and then pull back.

That would all of course depend on how the market reacts to the inflation numbers that we get today and tomorrow. We do have the Nasdaq on a buy signal. We now have semiconductors back on a buy signal. All the major tech stocks that we follow closely are all back on buy signals. But we did see some pullbacks yesterday.

We saw a little pullback for Apple, we saw a little pullback for Microsoft. Netflix pulled back still on a sell signal here. No change for Netflix. And then three of the big cap tech stocks that are in the Dow 30 also pulled back yesterday. We saw Salesforce, Cisco and IBM all pull back on Tuesday.

Now if we want a stock market rally to last for any length of time, we need a couple of things to happen. And yesterday the US dollar index gave us a sell signal, that’s supportive for higher stock prices and we saw bond yields come down. So we have the 5 year back on a sell signal, still waiting for the 10 year and the 30 year to come down, but they are moving in that direction so those things are supportive for higher stock prices. Now once again it looks like the same old story is starting to play out and that’s not helpful for the overall stock market. In the US market, the market is being held up and led higher by technology stocks once again.

In the Canadian market it’s the energy sector and for a sustainable rally to happen we need that to start to change. So if we look at the market through the eyes of the Fly Paper Channel, there are some stocks in which investors are still willing to buy the dips. Tesla is one of them, Palantir is another one. Then Advanced Micro Devices has been stuck in neutral for quite a while and is still stuck to the Fly Paper Channel. So no change there.

Investors are giving up on Rivian, just broke through the Fly Paper Channel and so now what was previously support is going to act as resistance. Bank of America most financial institutions are trading under the Fly Paper Channel so we can get a rally up to the Fly Paper Channel. It would be quite OD to expect the market to be able to break out above that at the present time. Then looking at Apple, apple’s been a drag over the past month or so and recently put in a lower low and right now we’re dealing with an open gap there that is currently acting as resistance. And then Nio is a broken stock and we’d look for a move up to the Fly Paper Channel and fill that open gap.

Another broken stock is Ford and then looking at Amazon. Amazon stuck on the Fly Paper Channel. It ended yesterday on back on a buy signal but we’ve got the Fly Paper Channel. Then we’ve got an open gap just above it. So not looking for a lot from Amazon at the moment.

Lucid’s been broken for a long time so nothing going on there. The airline stocks broke down back in July and that’s it for them. We could certainly move up to the Fly Paper Channel again. We’ve got an open gap here that could potentially act as resistance. Then looking at nvidia another stock, investors are still willing to buy the dips and it is still holding up fairly well on the TSX.

Of course, it’s been all about energy stocks and a lot of them are still holding the Fly Paper Channel such as Canadian Natural Resources. Financial institutions on the other hand, not doing so well right now. Whether you’re looking at the TD Bank or bank of Montreal, TC Energy has been in the doghouse for quite a while, so no change for that stock. Looking at Suncor. Still holding the Fly Paper Channel.

Here again, another financial institution, the Royal Bank. Yes, it can move up from here, but it’s going to face a lot of resistance into the Fly Paper Channel. Then we’ve got Enbridge. Enbridge has been a dog for a while now, continues to make lower highs and lower lows. Looking at Baytex investors still willing to buy the dip on this stock and then looking at athabasca Oil Sands and athabasca still doing very well.

Still well above the Fly Paper Channel, so investors love that stock. Investors still love Cenovus. No change there. B2gold. A lot of these gold stocks look the same.

Yes, gold stocks could rise here, but once again, they’re going to run into the Fly Paper Channel and get stuck then BCE. Kind of odd to see this series of lower highs, lower lows. And we recently just came down, and we’re finding support at $50. Yes, we could move up to 56 from where we are right now, but that would take a lot of work. Okay, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

It looks like we’re going to get a higher open from where we are right now, but then again, we’ve got PPI numbers coming. It out at 830, and that could certainly change the direction of the market. I think the rally has probably got a few more days left in it before it starts to fizzle, but we’ll just have to wait and see what the market decides to do. Enjoy the rest of your day, and next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic news coming out this morning. Stock index futures are trading slightly above fair value, while commodities are pulling back a bit in the pre market on Tuesday morning. Now, if you’re with us, yesterday morning I mentioned the fact that the stock market was trading without adult supervision as the bond market was closed on Monday.

And we’re probably going to see some overreactions. And I wouldn’t take anything that happened on Monday too seriously. We saw money go back into defense stocks, so that was certainly a knee jerk reaction. As you can see, up until yesterday, they weren’t doing very well. We saw a big pop in Northrop Grumman that was the biggest winner on the S&P 500, followed by Lockheed and then General Dynamics.

All of them popped. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled back over the next few days. That’s also true with commodities. We made a lower low for crude oil on Friday and then a big pop on Monday. And we saw a big pop in energy stocks that also made a new low on Friday.

We also saw the price of gold and the price of silver shoot up on Monday. We saw gold and silver stocks also move up. Looking at the GDX, you can see we traded up to the bottom of that open gap once again, and it’s still acting as resistance. Now, the Canadian market will probably play catch up at the open on Tuesday morning to what happened in the US. Yesterday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the commodity stocks and defense related stocks pulled back over the next few days.

Now the VIX had a wild day yesterday, ended up being an inside day. So we traded above the upper channel line, but did not take out Friday’s high, and we pulled back and closed in the channel. So on Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below $17.07 to tell us that the option market is not as fearful as it has been recently and that would be supportive for higher stock prices. Looking at the major stock market index ETFs, looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60, they traded up to the lower channel line on Friday. So on Tuesday, we’re looking for a close above 29 67.

Now, when we look at the index itself, it traded up close to the lower channel line on Friday. It is trading higher by $12.20 in the pre market this morning. So looking at the futures contract for the TSX 60, which is not the same as the Ishares for the TSX 60, we’re trading up in the channel at the moment. So not enough to give us a buy signal, but certainly enough to get us back in the channel on Tuesday morning. Now, the Dow traded up to the upper channel line any higher close on Tuesday would give us a buy signal, which would join the S&P 500, which is now back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close, joining the Nasdaq which generated a buy signal on Friday.

And of course, we’ve been watching those big cap tech stocks, which are mostly back on buy signals right now, once again, leading the market higher. Now, Semiconductors had a fairly quiet and an inside day on Monday, even though we’ve got Nvidia on a buy signal right now. So looking at those big cap technology stocks, we saw Alphabet make a new high for this move, moving right back up to the high from September and it looks like it wants to take that out on Tuesday. No joy for Amazon just yet. We’re looking for a close above 129.44 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal.

Apple, third day of a buy signal for Apple. And then we saw Meta continue to move higher, so it’s taking a run at those highs from late July. We’ve got Microsoft on its second day of a buy signal, so no change in trend there. Inside day for nvidia on Monday. And then we saw shopify trading in New York on Monday.

Also had an inside day. We’re looking for a close on Tuesday above $54.35. And we also saw Tesla putting in an inside day on Monday. Let’s finish off today’s presentation. Taking a look at what didn’t work on Monday and anything travel related did not work on Monday.

There’s the Jets ETF. Down over two and a half percent, making a new low. The biggest loser on the S&P 500 on Monday was United Airlines. Again, we’re making a new low here, down nearly 5% on the day. There’s Delta Airlines making a new low.

A new low for Carnival Cruises. A new low for American Airlines. Royal Caribbean did not make a new low, but ended the day down nearly 3%. So anything travel related did not work on Monday. Anything military related did work on Monday.

Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, October 10, 2023

It’s. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. Dow futures currently down about 200 points.

So we’re definitely looking at some selling this morning. Now, if things turn around, some of these technology charts could give buy signals, but probably not on Friday. Now, the reason we’re looking at the technology sector this morning is we may have put in a bottom. Looking at the Canadian technology sector, you can see that the index has held the August lows, unlike the Nasdaq 100, which has dipped through the August lows, but hit our next price target and bounced. And now we’re up to the previous price target at the 359.38 level.

Coming into Friday’s trading action. We’ve had a couple of quiet days, we’ve had a couple of inside days, and now we’re looking to see if we can take out the upper channel line on Friday. You can see that we have traded into the open gap. We haven’t filled it yet, so that is still a potential area of resistance. So looking for a close on Friday above 360 213.

Now, year to date, the Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 35%. And right now we’re using the bottom of the Fly Paper channel as support. You can see we’re nicely oversold down here. So this is the time and place where we could see a rally. Now compare the Nasdaq 100 to the Russell 2000.

We’re nowhere near a buy signal coming into Friday’s trading action, well below the Fly Paper channel, and we’re down nearly 2% on the year. So when you take away those seven big cap tech stocks, the rest of the market has not performed at all in 2023. Now, what hasn’t worked? Well, the biggest loser has been the regional banks in the US, Down over 30% year to date.

Now. I always look at the VIX. It’s the first thing I look at every day to see what the options traders are doing. And they’re still on a buy signal right now. That would change on Friday if the VIX were to close below $16.75.

Now, there is a VIX for the Nasdaq, and I don’t look at it that often because it does this a lot, and that’s not really that useful. But right now we’re in an uptrend looking very similar to the VIX for the S and P 500. Things would change on Friday if the VIX for the Nasdaq were to close below $21.25. Now, looking at those big cap tech stocks, we have four out of the seven back on buy signals right now, including Alphabet, but not Amazon. For Amazon, we’re still trading below the lower channel line.

And then Apple is back on a buy signal as of Thursday’s close, joining Meta already on a buy signal for Microsoft, we’re looking for a close above $320.83 on Friday. We do have Nvidia on a buy signal right now. We also have Tesla on a buy signal. So four out of the seven big cap tech stocks are now back on buy signals, and that is a majority. Now seeing four out of the top seven technology stocks with buy signals is not enough to get things started.

We need the technology ETFs to start showing some buy signals, and so far, that is not the case. Starting off with semiconductors, it looks like we’re finding a base here, but we haven’t seen enough upward momentum to give us a buy signal just yet. Looking at robotics, no change there. No change for XT. Then we’ve got cloud computing making a new low yesterday.

We’ve got autonomous vehicles with an inside day on Thursday. Then looking at cybersecurity, no change in trend there. Then Mobile Payments, had a fairly quiet day. Looking at robotics, no change there. And then looking at the SPDR Technology ETF, looking very much like the Nasdaq 100 trading up into the channel for the past few days, but not enough to give us a buy signal.

We’re still looking for a close above 166 on Friday to give us a buy signal. And you can see that that open gap is currently acting as resistance, and it looks like it has now been filled. Taking a look at the Ark Invest ETFs, no change there for any of these ETFs. There’s Genomics making a new low on Thursday. The innovation ETF, no change there.

Fairly quiet trading for the Industrial. And then Space and Internet, no change for either of those. So we’ve got all the major technology ETFs still on sell signals, so no change coming into Friday’s trading action. Let’s finish off with a look at a couple of the tech stocks. I follow closely.

There’s Advanced Micro Devices on a buy signal right now. BlackBerry, huge down day for BlackBerry on Thursday. This looked kind of weird. We went up, we gapped down, we came up, filled the open gap, and then came right back down. I kind of thought that this was kind of strange to see this big price movement.

Then the gap filled, and then we retreated once again. So BlackBerry making a new low on Thursday. Then Salesforce, still on a sell signal, no change there. No change for Cisco, no change for DocuSign. And then we’ve got intel has traded above the upper channel line for the past couple of days, but has not closed above it.

So on Friday, we’re looking for a close above $35.98. Then looking at Lightspeed, no change there. No change for Netflix, no change for PayPal. Then looking at Roku. We’ve been in the channel all week, and now we’re looking for a close above 71.65 on Friday to give us a buy signal.

And last up this morning, shopify on the TSX, we’re looking for a close on Friday above $74.09. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Friday morning. Have a great day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning, Canadian markets will be closed. On Monday. US. Markets will be open.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, October 6, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are trading slightly below fair value. Crude oil continues to move lower in the premarket this morning. Well, on Wednesday, we saw a lot of inside days. We saw a lot of lower lows and we also saw the price of crude oil tank down over 5%, third day of a sell signal. Third day of a sell signal for the USO, while gasoline started to sell off a couple of weeks ago and was down sharply yesterday, nearly 7% on the day. That’s a sign that the economy is weakening, that gasoline demand is starting to evaporate. It could also help the Fed in its quest to fight inflation. Looking at energy stocks, we’ve been on a sell signal for the energy ETFs on both sides of the border. Energy stocks came down sharply yesterday, of course, and Canadian Natural resources back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close, joining Suncor already on a sell signal. Cenovus back on a sell signal, and then we’ve got athabasca Oil Sands sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal.

Any lower close on Thursday would give us a new sell signal. Baytex, third day of a sell signal there. Then looking at US energy stocks, Chevron was the biggest loser on the DOW on Wednesday. Then we’ve got Baker Hughes down sharply. We’ve got Diamondback Energy. And last up for the energy sector, Marathon down nearly 5% on the day. Now getting back to the overall stock market, we saw the VIX make a new high yesterday before pulling back. We need a close on Thursday below $16.46 to give us a sell signal. A move down below that level would certainly be supportive for higher stock prices. Looking at the major stock market index ETFs in the US, the Dow made a lower low yesterday. We had an inside day for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and the transports. Now we had a lot more sector ETFs having inside days. We also had a lot making new lows, including the Russell 2000, the iShare’s Microcap ETF. We saw a new low for Consumer Staples. We saw a new low for the Real Estate sector and the banks, US Banks. We also saw biotechs and pharmaceuticals make new lows.

And we also saw a new low for industrials on Wednesday. Now moving on to the Canadian market and of course, the energy sector, which we already covered, makes up a much bigger component of the Canadian market than it does the US market. Now the TSX made a new low, as did the TSX60 on Wednesday, but they both ended the day slightly higher with the financials turning around midday. Mid-cap, small caps and microcap stocks all made new lows on Wednesday and all closed lower on the day. We saw a new low for the financials, but they reversed going into the close as did the banking sector, which is within the financial sector. Gold stocks held up fairly well yesterday. They did close slightly lower on the day, but it looks like we might be putting in a base here. Then we saw a lower low for income trust, for health care, for global mining, for global base metals, and for materials. Not a very productive day on the TSX. Last up this morning, one stock stood out yesterday, the most actively traded stock in the US generated a buy signal, and that, of course, is Tesla.

Tesla is in a triangle at the moment. We are finding support at the FlyPaper channel and now looking to see if we can go up and take out that downtrend line and the recent high from a couple of weeks ago. That’ll be very interesting to watch. Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at all the major technology stocks that we follow. We’ll do that on Friday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. The next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, October 5, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com in the pre market this morning things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures trading right around fair value, while commodities are slightly lower on Wednesday morning. Well, I’m not going to tell you anything new this morning. Tuesday turned out to be a continuation day.

We saw the VIX make a new high that put downward press on the major stock market indices on Wednesday. We’re looking for a close below $16.18 to give us a new sell signal for the VIX. If that were to happen, that would be supportive for higher stock prices. The US dollar index continued to move higher on Tuesday, putting downward pressure on other currencies, including the euro and the Canadian dollar. We saw bond yields continue to move higher on the back of lower bond prices.

Whether you’re looking at the XBB or the TLT or emerging market bonds or junk bonds, they all moved sharply lower on Monday, with corresponding bond yields continuing to move higher. Whether you’re looking at the 5, the 10, or the 30 year, all the bond yields moved up yesterday. We talked about the downward pressure of bond yields moving up on the utility sector, but if we just look at the overall financial sector, you’ll see overall weakness in financials, in US BankS, in the Regional Banks, in Broker Dealers, and finally the Insurance Sector has broken down. And of course we were watching the Insurance Sector outperform the rest of the financial sector over the past couple of months. Looking at the Canadian market, we had Canadian financials make a new low, Canadian Banks make a new low on Tuesday, so no change in trend there.

Looking at the world of commodities, starting off with the energy sector, we saw a little buying in crude oil yesterday, that’s being undone in the pre market on Wednesday morning. We had natural gas trade up to the upper channel line, so a close above 2.97 would give us a buy signal on Wednesday. We’ve got energy inventories coming out this morning at 10:30, so that could certainly shake up the energy sector. Energy stocks in Canadian market moved up slightly. In the US market, they moved down slightly, but no change in trend.

Moving from the energy sector to the mining sector, we saw copper make a new low for this move yesterday. Freeport held up fairly well, while we saw a new low for First Quantum. Then looking at the price of gold, it moved lower yesterday. It’s down again in the pre market this morning. Last time I checked, we’re heading towards $1812.50.

That’s our next mathematical price target. We saw Barrick move up slightly yesterday, as did Agnico Eagle. No change in trend for either of those stocks. Of course, the price of silver continued to move lower yesterday, recovered most of its losses going into the close, but still closed down on the day. And you can see we made a new low for Pan American before closing slightly higher, and that’s also true for Wheaton.

Both making new lows and then recovering going into the end of the day. Looking at the major stock market ETFs. Starting with the Ishares for the TSX 60 and new low yesterday. New low for the Dow for the S&P 500 but not for the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq is still holding on to the lows from last week, so those have not broken down just yet.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. No major trend changes to talk about. It looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open on Wednesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, October 4, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are below fair value. So so far it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open at 930 Tuesday morning. Well, Monday turned out to be an interesting day for the most part it was negative, and it was negative enough to take the TSX and the Russell 2000 negative for 2023. So those big cap tech stocks are still playing a big role in keeping the Nasdaq, the S&P and the Dow higher for 2023.

Now looking at the TSX, we are down 1.86% on Monday. The TSX 60 was down a little less at 1.82%. Then mid cap small caps and micro caps were all down over 2% on the day. Now we saw the US dollar index continue to move higher on Monday, putting downward pressure on all the major currencies. Of course the first one we think of is the Euro, but we also saw downward pressure on the Canadian dollar which came right back down to the September lows.

We also saw bond prices continue to move lower on Monday, putting upward pressure on bond yields. And of course that put downward pressure on all the interest sensitive sectors. The most damage was done to the utility sector on Monday on both sides of the border and then of course, financial institutions, including the major banks. There’s the Bank of Nova Scotia. There’s the Royal Bank.

Both making new lows on Monday. And we saw weakness across the board, including the insurance sector. And there’s Manulife making a new low for this move on Monday. Let’s move on to the world of commodities and we’ll start with the energy sector. We’ve got crude oil back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close, joining natural gas already on a sell signal.

Canadian energy stocks pulled back, generating a sell signal on Monday. We’re looking at the Ishares for the TSX Energy Sector and we can see that we put in a lower high on Thursday. On Friday we pulled back in the Channel. On Monday we rolled over. Now we talked about this continuation trade.

There was recently a bunch of new buy signals in a lot of energy stocks and this continuation trade was a high risk trade. We knew that ahead of time. Low risk trades come off the bottom of the Panic Zones where pressure zones have formed. If you had money in this trade from back here, then you don’t mind risking it up here to see if we could push the market higher. But obviously you don’t want to be stepping in with new money up at the top of the panic zone and that’s also true for the overall market.

Now looking at this Panic Zone chart, we don’t have an early warning signal up at the top of the screen just yet. So we haven’t had a major breakdown so far, we are projecting down towards the $15 level. Of course, to get there, we’ve got a breakdown below a lot of different levels of support, including an open gap, but there is lots of support there at the $16 level. Of course, projections don’t know what they don’t know, and they evolve over time. The crude oil market could certainly reverse tomorrow and head right back up and take the rest of the energy sector with it.

But that’s not what we’re dealing with on Tuesday morning. We’re looking at lower stock prices and lower energy prices on Tuesday morning. Looking at the Stockhouse bull boards. Baytex is still the most popular energy stock on stockhouse, and Baytex reversed yesterday and is back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Athabasca made a new high yesterday before reversing.

Looking for a close on Tuesday below $3.93 to give us a new daily sell signal. Looking at Pipestone, we’re back down at the August lows, trying to find support at 195. If that breaks, then 176 would be our next target to the downside. Then looking at Uranium Energy, we’re back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close, joining Tamarack Valley,

already on a sell signal, so no change there. Currently holding support at 3.71. If that breaks, then 3.52 would be our next target to the downside. Looking at the big cap energy stocks, the most actively traded was Canadian Natural Resources. We need to close on Tuesday below $85.84 to give us a sell signal, and then that would join Suncor, which generated a sell signal as of Monday’s close.

Next up, let’s take a look at the mining sector. And we’ll start off with commodities. And we’ve got copper down at last week’s low, so no change in trend there. New low for the price of gold. It was down $18.90 yesterday.

It’s down $3 or so in the pre market this morning, heading towards our next level of support at 1812.50. Of course, if that breaks, then 1750 comes into play. There’s. The price of silver down nearly 5% on the day, so no change there. Now, looking at the Ishares for the TSX Global Gold index, we were down 2.65%, making a new low for this move.

Now, the opposite of this, of course, is to be long the HorizonS BetaPro Bear ETF for the gold miners. And it made a new high yesterday, ran up and hit our next price target of 7.81. Now, if we continue to move higher from here, our chart of course, is going to expand and bring new targets in. The easiest way to find the next new major target is just to look at the weekly chart and you can see that as of last Friday, our next target was 7.81. That’s where we peaked out earlier in 2023.

If we keep going from here, then 9.38 would be our next target to the upside. If we start breaking out above 7.81, now looking at individual gold stocks. We’ve got Barrick making a new low. We’ve got Ignico Eagle making a new low, new closing low for B two gold. Then we’ve got Eldorado making a new low, starting to break down below the August lows.

Kinross continuing to move lower, so no change there. And then new low for new gold. And then out of all of those gold stocks, the one that looks the nicest to trade or the easiest to trade would be Eldorado. So that’s the one I’m going to be watching on the way back up. Of course, there’s no reason to be looking to buy it on Tuesday morning.

We had new closing low. Yesterday, we dipped below the August lows. And the first sign that something new is happening, of course, is going to be the first close above the previous day’s high. And not expecting to see that on Tuesday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

Looking for some selling at the Open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Speaker 1
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet, stock index futures are flat. Little more activity in the commodity sector. We do have crude oil trading higher, while gold is down another $15 in the premarket on Monday morning. Now, as expected, the month of September turned out to be a down month. Let’s do a quick review. The iShares for the TSX 60 closed down only 3.23 %. But the TSX hasn’t gone anywhere this year. In fact, the year to date is up a little less than 1 %. And so the iShares for the TSX 60 closed just below the lower channel line. But again, we’ve been just treading water in 2023. Now the Dow was down 3.7 %, the S&P 500 was down 5.08 %, the Nasdaq 100 was down 5.22%. Now we saw a pullback in most of the big cap tech stocks that we follow and Apple being the biggest one was down nearly 9 % for the month. Tesla held up fairly well, down 3.05 %, while Shopify was down over 17 % for the month.

Speaker 1
Now, it’s hard to notice that big a move on this chart considering that Shopify has been so volatile over the past couple of years. Now, a couple of stocks to watch in October, Meta had an inside month and actually closed slightly higher on the month. On the other hand, we saw NVIDIA, which also had an inside month, was down nearly 12%. Again, still having trouble up at the $500 level that is continuing to act as resistance. The high for the month was $498. The second month in a row, we haven’t been able to break through $500. It was a fairly volatile month. It was an inside month. In both cases, both stocks had inside months or months of indecision. It’s going to be very important in October to see which way these particular stocks break either to the upside or if October is going to be a bad month, they’re going to break to the downside. Now, what didn’t work in September? Well, the price of gold had a hard time and was down over 5%, down nearly $100 for the month. The price of silver was down to $2.36 for the month, down nearly 10 %.

Speaker 1
So both of those commodities put pressure on the commodity related stocks and silver miners were the big losers down nearly 10 % for the month, while gold stocks on the TSX were down 7.69 %, and gold stocks in New York were down 8.03 %. That’s where we saw a lot of weakness in the month of September. With what’s going on in the premarket this morning, that doesn’t look like it’s going to change on the first trading day of October. Now moving on from monthly charts to daily charts, let’s take a look at the opportunities that are in front of us on Monday. Still short the iShares for the TSX60, that would change on Monday with a close above $30.31, not expecting that to happen. Of course, if it doesn’t happen, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. If we take out last week’s low then 28.91 and 28.52 are the next targets to the downside. Looking at the SPY, looking for a close on Monday above $435.91. If we take out last week’s low then 414.06 and 406.25 come into play. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, we were able to drive up into the channel on Friday, but not close in the channel.

Speaker 1
Looking for a close on Monday above $364.06 to give us a buy signal. Potential area resistance is the top of the open gap there at 364.46 that could act as a price magnet and a level of resistance. Now, if we take out last week’s low, then I move down to 343.75 and 335.94 come into play. Looking at the TSX most active starting with Baytex, made a new high on Friday. A close below $5.62 on Monday would give us a sell signal. Our next price target is 6.25. Tc Energy, nothing going on there, stuck at 46.88. If we start to continue to move lower this week, then 43.75 would be our next target, which would be the low from July. Then looking at the TD bank, still the strongest bank of the group, looking for a close on Monday above 82.77. This is looking pretty bullish. In August, we made a high. In September, we made a higher high. In August, we made a low, then a series of higher lows. So it’s looking pretty bullish for the TD Bank. Then looking at the Canadian Natural Resources. As I mentioned last week, we are up the top of the Panic Zones here.

Speaker 1
These continuation trades are very risky and you don’t want to be jumping in up at these levels if you weren’t in from the start back here. Now on Monday for Canadian Natural Resources, we’re looking for a close below 85.63 to give us a new sell signal. Looking up our next target, if we take out last week’s high, is 93.75. Then looking at Athabasca Oil Sands, a new high for this move. Our next target to the upside is $4.69. Looking at the most actives from Friday’s trading action in New York, we’re starting off with Tesla, looking for a close on Monday above $257.17. We’re working ourselves into a corner here. The market is going to be looking to see if we break out or break out of this nice triangle that’s forming. You can see that we’re in the middle exact middle of the trading range we’ve been in for the last month. We closed at $250.22, so not a big bias to the upside there, $0.22 over $2.50, no big deal. Then looking at Carnival, wild day on Friday, trading up through the upper channel line before closing lower on the day. We’re looking for a close above $14.75 on Monday to give us a buy signal.

Speaker 1
Otherwise, 12.50 is our next target to the downside, followed by 10.94. Then looking at Palantir, Wild Day on Friday made a new high for this move and then reversed and actually closed higher by just 23 cents. We’re trying to get to 17.19, that’s our next mathematical target for Palantir, and then 18.75. Looking at Ford, Ford is still on a sell signal here. It’s treading water. A close above 12.61 would give us a buy signal on Monday, and our next price target to the is $13.28, otherwise, we’d be looking for support once again down at the $11.72 level. Then last up this morning is Amazon. Amazon traded up on Friday, looking for a close on Monday above $133.24. Again, if that doesn’t happen, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. If we take out last week’s low, then 118.75 would be our next target to the downside for Amazon. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Still looking for a quiet open on Monday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Monday, October 2, 2023