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[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:01:08]: Historical Events in October
[00:02:19]: Long-term Bearish Market Outlook
[00:03:32]: Winners and Losers in the Stock Market
[00:04:44]: Disappointing Financial Stocks Performance
[00:05:57]: Focus on Russell and NASDAQ
[00:07:10]: TSX Market Range Analysis
[00:08:25]: Bond Market and Currency Trends
[00:09:27]: Crude Oil and Energy Sector Performance
[00:10:39]: Gold and Financial Institutions

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. com, and welcome to this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing television. Well, the stock market ended on a low on Friday. If you’re looking at the S&P 500, the Nasdaq hit a low on Thursday for the month of October, and then Friday was an inside day. And for the iShares for the TSX 60, we also hit our October low on Friday. So not a pretty picture going forward. Now, we came into October knowing that the seasonalities were weak, whether you were looking at the S&P 500 or they’re much easier to spot on the TSX. Then from this point on, the market is usually pretty bullish, but we don’t know exactly when it’s going to start. October is not only seasonally weak if we look at the last 20 years, but if we go back in time, there’s a lot of negative historical events that have happened in the month of October. Going back to the panic of 1907, then, of course, the crash of ’29, the crash of ’87, I was trading back then, and it’s when I flipped over from being a fundamental trader to a technical trader.

Then, of course, the Asian Financial Crisis and then the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Now, we are coming up to the end of October, and that’s when the sell in May crowd comes back. One of the most successful investment strategies in history, of course, is the selling on May first and coming back and buying on November first. It’s often called the Halloween indicator. And that could kick in in the not so distant future. We also have a full moon this weekend and we’re coming up to month end. And traders typically don’t like to trade against the automatic money that comes into the market at monthend. Now, as a long term investor, we want to remain long term bearish on the market as long as the VIX does not close below $15.22 this coming Friday. So for the last six weeks, the VIX has been on a weekly buy signal. That, of course, is long term bearish for stocks. And we’ve seen that work out throughout the month of October. The pros are still in control on a weekly basis. We’re projecting higher prices here on our panic zone chart. And if we go back in time, you can see that back in March of this year, the VIX got all the way up to 3,125.

If we go back to last fall, we got up to 34.38. Then nearly two years ago, we’re up at the 37.50 level. Technically, there is a lot more room to go on the upside based on recent trading activity, but the bears could be running out of time here. We’ll just have to wait and see. The first sign that something new is happening is going to be a change on the daily chart for the VIX. And coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re looking for a close at the end of the day below $18.66 on the VIX for the S&P 500. That would be the first sign that something new is happening on the bullish side of the market. And of course, if that doesn’t happen on Monday, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. Now, 2023 has been all about the Nasdaq-100 and a handful of stocks. When we look at the Nasdaq-100, it’s currently clustering around the 200-day moving average. When we look at what’s been working in 2023, Citia has been the big winner. It’s a $400 stock. It was recently a $500 stock, and it’s currently up 177 %, followed by Meta up 146 %, and then Tesla at 68.29 %.

Those are huge, big cap stocks that have been holding the market up. The rest of the market is not looking for any moving average support. Whether you’re looking at the Russell 2000 or you’re looking at the TSX, there’s no potential support from the moving averages right now. The big line in the sand is that 200-day moving average on the NASDAQ. Now, when we look at what’s not been working, some stocks have just been crushed this year. I believe the biggest losing stock on the S&P 500 is SolarEdge, down 72 %, generated a sell signal back in March of this year. Then on the NASDAQ-100, it’s end phase, which is down 69 %, big sell signal back in late 2022. On the Dow 30, it’s Walgreens, which also came in with a sell signal right at the start of the year, down over 43 %. On the TSX, the big winner on the TSX-60 is Cameco, up over 71 %, gave us a weekly buy signal back in April of this year. Now on the TSX, only 24 of the TSX60 stocks are currently positive for 2023. So it’s been really hard to find winners in 2023.

And I guess the biggest disappointment for me, and there’s not stocks that I actually trade, but just watching the financial stocks disintegrate in 2023. And here’s the Canada’s biggest bank, the Royal Bank, making a new low this week for 2023. Now, the Royal Bank and all the major banks are widely held. You know when you see a chart like this that the average investor, whether they’re actively involved in the market or if they’re in long term mutual funds, they’re getting hurt at the moment. Now we’ve been following the same script, the same movie, the same book, the same theme for months now in which we’ve been making lower highs and lower lows. It’s going to take some work to change that because not only do we need a nice rally into November, but then it’s not the rally that tells us what’s going to happen, it’s what happens after. And what we’re going to want to see is a rally above recent highs followed by a pullback above recent lows. And so it’s a two step approach to actually change the theme of lower highs and lower lows. Now, while the world is watching the Nasdaq, I’ve been watching the Russell 2000, and we’ve been talking about this for quite a while.

The Russell 2000 has been in a tight range for almost two years now. Looking at the IWM, $200 at the top of the range, $162.50 at the bottom of the range. Speaking of lower highs and lower lows, there was a high back in the middle of 2022, a lower high in early 2023, an even lower high in the summer of 2023. Now we’re looking to see what happens at the bottom of the range. On Friday, we actually closed below the level. We closed up 162.21, so that was our price target. If we continue to move lower from here, then 150 and 137.50 could certainly come into play, and that would be very ugly for the overall stock market. Looking at the Canadian market, the TSX has been in a tight range in 2023. Looking at this chart from a month ago, what we were looking for was, could we break out above the highs of 2023, which were just above the 20,625 level? Again, look at this pattern. There’s a high, lower high, and then in the summer, we put in an even lower high, bearish all the way across. We are trying to hold support.

We actually penetrated below the 19,375 level, but the market always came back. That’s where we were looking to find support and move ahead a month. What happened? Well, we were looking to see if the 19,375 level would hold. If it didn’t, then 18,750 would be our next target. Where did we end on Friday at 18,750? Nope, we ended at 18,737 and change, so just below this level. And of course, if we continue to move lower from here, we can go back to the lows from 2022 down at 18,825. That would certainly be a logical move to the downside if we keep going lower from here. Now, if we do want to change the movie to change the channel, we need to get the remote control away from the cat. To do that, we’re probably going to need bond traders to change what they’ve been doing in 2023. The third year bond hit a new low this week and actually closed higher on the week. But what it didn’t do, it did not close above the previous week’s high. So nothing going on there so far. The pros: nowhere near taking control. But that doesn’t mean they can’t bid up bonds.

That just means that we’re not going to have a new uptrend start anytime soon. Now, the TLT also made a new low this week and also closed higher on the week, but again, did not close above the previous week’s high. Bond yields pulled back. Whether you’re looking the 30 or the 10 or the 5, they all pulled back, but again, did not close below the previous week’s low, so nothing has started just yet. Now, if we can get bond traders to get back in there and start buying bonds, that could also put pressure on the US dollar index, which actually closed higher on the week while the euro closed slightly lower and the Japanese Yen was slightly higher after making a new low this week. No change in trend for any of the major currencies. Next up, let’s take a look at commodities. Crudeoil had another wild week trading down to the lower channel line. We need to close this coming Friday below $81.88. That would give us a new weekly sell signal. We’re looking for intraweek support at the $81.25 level. If that breaks, then $75 would be our next target to the downside.

Energy stocks got hit hard in the US down over 6%. That had a lot to do with just two stocks. Looking at the Chevron, which was down 13.47% and Hess, which was down 12.1% on the week. So both of those putting huge downward pressure on the US energy sector. Canadian energy stocks were down, but not by that much, down 2.35%. Looking at the iShare’s TSX energy ETF, and you can see Sunnovus traded right down to the lower channel line, but did not close below it. This coming Friday, we would be long term bearish on Sunnovus if it were to close below $26.33. Now, the gold futures contracts traded up to 2,000 again. Now, depending on where you look, what futures contract, whether you’re looking at spot or cash, gold has been able to trade above $2,000, but has been unable to break away from it just yet. The GLD closed at a new high for this move on Friday, and we’re trying to get to 187.50, and that’s where sellers started to come in back in March and April of this year. Looking at gold stocks in the US, they closed down nearly 1 % on the week, still on a weekly sell signal, no change there.

Canadian gold stocks were down just a tick on the week and still on a weekly buy signal, so no change there. Let’s finish off today’s presentation with a quick look at financial institutions. You’ve probably heard me say this, but US insurance companies have held up very well over the past couple of months. That came to an end this week. The previous week, we made a new high and traded above the early 2023 high. This week, we came down hard. We’re back on a weekly sell signal, joining the rest of the financial sector. Now, the S&P 500 financial ETF has not broken down below the 2023 lows or retested them. That’s also true for US banks and US regional banks. That could happen before the market starts to turn around. But it’s important to remember that during a rate tightening cycle, the Fed usually breaks something. It’s often a financial institution. Sometimes it’s a whole country. You just have to wait and see what happens. It’s still very risky to be in any US financial stock. It might even be more risky to be in a Canadian financial stock right now. Look at the TSX financial ETF.

It’s breaking down below the lows from a year ago. If we start breaking away from 40, 63, then 3750 comes into play for the iShare’s financial ETF. Then looking at Canadian banks, this is the BMO equal weighted bank ETF. We broke down below that low a while ago. We’re looking to trade down to the bottom of our weekly projected trading range for this ETF, which would be all the way down at 20, 8, 13. Remember, we started way over the left-hand corner of the screen back at $42. That’s quite a move for Canadian banks. But right now, they’re looking weaker than the US banks, and that could present a problem going forward. Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation. We’re going to be watching the VIX closely to see if options traders start giving up their hedges against lower stock prices. If that starts to happen, that could be the first sign that something new is happening and it could be the potential sign that the year-end rally has started. But coming into Monday’s trading action, we’re not expecting that to happen on Monday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Pre-market Update
[00:01:07]: VIX and Market Trends
[00:02:13]: Breakdown of Major Indices
[00:03:27]: Analysis of Magnificent Seven Stocks
[00:04:32]: Pressure Zones and Panic Selling
[00:05:37]: Locking in Profits and Market Outlook
[00:06:44]: TSX Market Analysis
[00:07:59]: Gold and Oil Stocks
[00:09:01]: Infotech Sector Analysis
[00:10:11]: Commodities: Crude Oil and Natural Gas
[00:11:14]: Copper Price Analysis
[00:11:14]: Pros’ Perspective on Copper
[00:11:14]: Gold Price Movement
[00:11:14]: Silver Traders’ Sentiment
[00:12:21]: Closing Remarks for the Week

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.co In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. Commodities are mixed with crude or higher, while gold is lower in the premarket on Friday morning. Now, we do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30. Don’t think they’ll be enough to really sway the market, but of course, getting over that 8:30 time period is always a little bit of a stumble. Now, in the premarket this morning, we’ve got Intel trading higher up into the channel. At the same time, we’ve got Ford trading lower back down to the recent low. Now, in both cases, we’re not expecting a change in trend on Friday. Looking at the US market from Thursday’s trading action, you can see it was rather defensive. The leader was real estate followed by utilities, of course, on the other side, the side that we watch a lot more closely, infotech and communication services were the big losers yesterday. Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a buy signal. That’s negative for stocks. Little out of sync with the market right now. I think options traders are a little more bullish than stock traders right now.

As we saw many of the major stock market indices make new lows yesterday. The VIX would need to close below 18.42 to give us a sell signal on Friday. That would certainly be short-term bullish. It would be more bullish if we started to break down below this uptrend line. Now, when we look at where the stock market is right now and what options traders are doing, look at how worried options traders were back in March when the VIX was trading all the way up there to 30. That is still a possibility. But right now options traders in Chicago not overly concerned about the market crashing at the moment. So just keep that in the back of your mind. That doesn’t mean we’re going to change direction right away. But options traders are not willing to overly hedge their positions at the moment. Now you’ve probably been hearing a lot of people talk about the 200-day moving average. And for a lot of investors, that’s a big line in the sand. Most of the symbols in North America are currently trading below the 200-day moving average. When you look at the DOW, and it made a new low yesterday, you look at the S&P 500, it’s broken down below the 200-day.

It has also made a new low on Thursday. It’s the Nasdaq that’s still holding up, ran down to the 200-day moving average yesterday. When we look at the percentage of stocks in the major North American indices and look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 200-day moving average, you can see the Nasdaq 100 is still the big winner. Everybody else is down here in the 20s. The TSX-60 is down below 20, but it is the Nasdaq that is still the holdout. And so if those stocks continue to move lower, there could be a stock market crash. Now, yesterday we talked about the Magnificent Seven stocks, and most of them are still holding up fairly well. Alphabet drove down to the 200-day moving average while Amazon broke down below it. And remember what was originally potentially support could act as resistance on the way back up. Now Amazon is joining Apple and Tesla already below their 200-day moving averages. Now, Microsoft was the big loser of the Magnificent Seven yesterday, down 3.75% right back down to the lower channel line. It is trading higher in the premarket this morning. Now, yesterday, we talked about the fact that we did pop and ran right up to our next price target and stopped on a dime.

Then yesterday, we ran right back down to our price target of 328.13, we actually closed at 327.89, so just below that level. But we are trading slightly higher in the premarket this morning. Now looking at Microsoft, you can see the pros still have not taken control, unlike Tesla, where the pros gave up control right at the start of March. Now looking at some other 200-day moving averages, whether you’re looking at semiconductor, the Russell 2000, the microcap stocks, everybody has broken down a long time ago. It’s still the same pattern. It’s the same theme. It’s the same story. It’s the same movie, lower highs, lower lows. Even when you look at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq just put in a lower low. Now, a lot of symbols that you look at right now look like this where you can see that the Pressure Zone at the bottom of the screen has elongated. That means that, hey, we were looking for a new trend, uptrend to start. It did, but didn’t last very long. We’re looking for another new uptrend to start. It did, but didn’t last very long. Here we are. This is telling you the stock is broken.

Of course, where are we? We’re right down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. A Pressure Zone has formed. We are seeing panic selling at the moment. That’s the time and place where retail investors usually give up the ghost. In fact, a lot of retail investors will decide to short down here. You look at the transport ETF, the time to short was off the top of the Panic Zones, where we had early warning signals and the trends started to change. This was the time that you short. You don’t short down here. This is the riskiest time ever to short. This is the time that retail investors get enough confidence because now they have enough negative feedback all the way down. They’re getting pounded. They’re getting pounded. Finally, they throw in the towel. And this is the time and place where markets often reverse higher. Now, I want to talk about locking in profits. If you have not systematically been taking money off the table this week as you’ve hit your profit targets, you should strongly think about doing it on Friday. Now, don’t completely liquidate a position. We are coming up to monthend. There’s a full moon on the weekend.

That’s usually the time and place where markets might want to change direction. There’s no guarantee. I don’t have a crystal ball. The market still could crash, who knows? But you need to be systematic. This is a business. You need to run it like a business. I’m talking to the people that haven’t taken any money off the table this week. If, for example, you locked in profits on Microsoft, that’s great. You don’t have to do anything more than that. You’re waiting to get kicked out of the position. But if you haven’t taken money off the table this week, this is the time and place to do it. Now, if you’re short the 3X bulls or any of the 2X or 3X index ETFs, take some money off the table. If you’re long the bear ETFs, yes, the bulls could continue to go lower, the bears could continue to go higher. But you want to take some money off the table because this is the time and place where markets can quickly reverse. Now, if we can make it all the way into November, which is next week, and we don’t crash, that’ll take a lot of pressure off a lot of investors who are very concerned about an October stock market crash.

Remember, the Sell in May crowd comes back in November. If we can make it through October without a major crash, that could turn a lot of people bullish on the market and willing to jump in to get ready for that year-end rally. Looking at the TSX, you can see similar situation. Utilities were the big winners. That’s not going to be very helpful. The fact utilities went up yesterday is really not going to change very much. Then again, it was the infotech stocks that were the real drag on the Canadian market on Thursday. Now, the TSX is down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. You can see we were there a couple of weeks ago. We moved up to resistance. Remember, what was previous support on the way down will act as resistance on the way back up. That’s exactly what happened. So here we are down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. Another Pressure Zone is starting to form. It hasn’t formed just yet, but here we are. The pros: no interest in taking control on Friday. You can see we’re well below the 200-day moving average. So any expectation when the market starts to move back up has to go up to where those moving averages are and no further because it’s going to take a lot to turn the market around and get it to go higher, but it’s going to take a lot more to get it up over resistance.

Now, what’s holding the market up right now? Well, gold stocks are certainly playing their part. You can see the early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. We are projecting higher prices right now, but we were not able to get up to 1797. We had a couple of bullish reversal signals. When you see those, the first thing you need to do is look for the exit. You don’t have to pull the ripcord and jump, but just you’ve got to get mentally prepared. That’s not the time and place to add to a position, that’s the time and place to look to pair back a position. And on Friday, if you’re trading the iShare’s Global Gold ETF, we’re looking for a close on Friday below 17.09. Gold is down five bucks in the premarket this morning. That could actually happen. Now, oil stocks have certainly played their part in holding the TSX up. Again, you can see the early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. We’ve started to pull back. We’re on our third day of a cell signal. Now, the 50-day moving average is currently acting as support. You can see a couple of weeks ago, we came down to the 100-day moving average and found support.

The energy stocks still have the opportunity to find support at these moving averages, where for everybody else in North America, those moving averages are acting as resistance. Now, Infotech, of course, big loser on the TSX yesterday, not only was it the biggest loser, but it also broke down below the previous lows. So not really a good sign. You can see we’ve broken down below the 200 day moving average, just like many of the other North American indices have. And there’s the right side chart for the TSX Infotech index. Looking at the biggest loser on Infotech from Thursday’s trading action was Celestica. And then, of course, all the regulars are on cell signals, whether you’re looking at BlackBerry, Dye & Durham, Lightspeed, Opentext, Shopify. Now Shopify is interesting. We’re trying to hold the 200-day moving average that was acting as an area of really a sticky area for the past few weeks, but we finally broke down. There was an open gap there, and the bottom of that open gap over on the left was at 65.15. We closed at 64.53 yesterday, so we certainly filled that gap and then continued lower. That gap is no longer in play.

Our next mathematical price target is 62.50. If that breaks, then we’re heading down to 56.25. Let’s finish off with the commodities and crude oil is on a sell signal right now. It’s trading higher in the premarket. It was down 2.18 yesterday. It’s up a 1.50 last time I checked. If we take out the October low, then there’s some support there at 78.13. That would certainly be a big tell if we went down past that level because we recently put in a what do you know, a lower high. Then looking at natural gas, natural gas moved up to the upper channel line yesterday, so any higher close on Friday would give us a buy signal. There’s an open gap just above us. But you can see the pros never gave up control. Even though we had this pullback and sell signal, the pros didn’t give up control. They’re probably anticipating cold weather. Maybe that’s why they held in. 3.71 was our price target. We closed at 3.70 yesterday. Look two lines up. That’s your playing field up to 4.10. If we can take out 4.10, then 4.30, is that a realistic target?

Well, we looked to the left and we popped up to that level back in August. So if we get a buy signal here, those are your next price targets. Now, the price of copper isn’t doing anything right now. What are the pros doing? Well, they’re not doing much. It does not look like they want to buy at the same time, I don’t think they’re too overly excited to be sellers at the present time. I guess they’re waiting for more global economic news before they do anything. On the other hand, gold shot higher. Pros took control and ran it back up to $2,000. So far, we’ve been unable to break out above $2,000. At the same time, Silver Traders not as excited trading down to the lower channel line yesterday, so a close below $22.58 on Friday would give us a sell signal. The pros are in control, but $23.43 has been acting as resistance and holding silver in check. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Again, if you haven’t been systematically taking money off the table this week and locking in profits, you probably want to do so on Friday ahead of the full moon and ahead of month end.

Enjoy the rest of Friday. Have a great weekend, and the next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, October 27, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:01:18]: Stock Index Futures and Economic Numbers
[00:02:29]: Analysis of Nasdaq
[00:03:41]: Analysis of Alphabet
[00:04:50]: Analysis of Amazon
[00:05:49]: Analysis of Apple
[00:06:58]: Analysis of Meta
[00:08:09]: Analysis of Microsoft
[00:09:19]: Analysis of Tesla
[00:09:56]: Conclusion and Closing Remarks

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board and around the world. That could possibly change at 8:30 this morning. There’s a whole bunch of economic numbers coming out, but I find that unlikely this morning. But we’ll just have to wait and see how the market reacts. A one stock that is not part of the Magnificent Seven that is out in the premarket is UPS. UPS was coming into today’s trading action, making a new low yesterday. It’s down another three and a half % in the premarket. And of course, UPS is part of the transports and the Dow Transports were down sharply yesterday, also making a new low. Now, 2023 has been the year of AI. Typically, when a CEO has mentioned AI in their call, it’s usually helped their stock. It may have helped Microsoft, certainly didn’t help Alphabet. But yeah, there’s something I saw off a CMBC yesterday that between the two of them, they mentioned AI 145 times during their calls. Now, the Magnificent Seven stocks are in the Nasdaq 100, and that’s been able to hold the Nasdaq up fairly well in 2023.

It’s currently still up over 30 % for the year. Now, the Magnificent Seven have not been the best performing stocks of 2023, but because of their size and performance, they’ve been able to hold the Nasdaq up. Compare that to the Russell 2000, which is currently down over six %, and the TSX, even with the added performance of the energy sector, the TSX is down 2.25 % year to date coming into Thursday’s trading action. Now, we’re going to walk through these charts fairly quickly. Two of the seven are still performing fairly well. The rest of them are heading lower. Here’s the Nasdaq-100, you can see the last early warning signal. We had an early warning signal here. We drove down, pressure’s on form. That is the time and place you look for a buy signal. We drove up. Unfortunately, early warning signal came back down. Now, what we were looking to see was, does the Nasdaq-100 make a new lower-low for this move? Not for 2023, but just for this move. If it starts to break down below the Flypaper channel, that would be very bearish. Here we are making a lower-low yesterday, starting to break down, but we haven’t broken away from the Flypaper channel just yet.

Our next mathematical target for the triple Qs are 343.75 is our next target. That comes in line with the 200-day moving average. The financial world will be watching that very closely. Now, you can see the last time we had a bearish reversal signal. We ask you to watch these signals closely. They don’t always work. But if you’re going to line that up with an early warning signal on the Panic Zone chart, it’s probably the time and place to at least stop buying. A bearish reversal signal does not generate a sell signal or bearish engulfment signal does not generate a sell signal, but it should be enough to just stop you from buying and looking for selling opportunities. You’re coming into Thursday’s trading action. You’re either short the queues or long the bear ETFs, so you should be making lots of money on Thursday. Now, the Magnificent Seven contains these stocks. We’ll walk through them as quickly as possible, starting off with Alphabet. There’s the early warning signal at the top of the screen. It actually struggled to move up on Wednesday, excuse me, and traded right up to the upper channel line. Then yesterday, just gapped down sharply.

We were looking to see if the recent low would act as support. Guess what? We cut right through that and we’re starting to move down below the bottom of the Flypaper channel. Of course, we’re looking to see if the 200 day moving average is going to hold us. There’s a nice open gap over there to the left and you can see that that open gap, the bottom of it is at the 123.69 level. That could be a potential target and area of support. If that doesn’t hold, of course, 118.75 is going to be our next target. Next up, we’re looking at Amazon. Amazon struggled. We had the early warning signal. We had the decline. Pressure Zone started to form. We started to move up that the open gap was a potential area of resistance. Guess what? That’s what it ended up being. And so now we’re coming down. And did the recent low hold? Nope, we broke that yesterday. Amazon struggled to move up above the FlyPaper channel. We call the FlyPaper channel because we expect stocks to get stuck there. And here we are coming down, making a new low on Wednesday, hitting the 200 day moving average.

If you look down to the left there, you’ll see a nice open gap way down there. I don’t know if we’re going to get that far, but you only worry about gaps if they’re in front of you. So if the stock is going down, if there’s a gap above you, doesn’t matter. If the stock is going up and there’s a gap below you, doesn’t matter. It only matters when it’s ahead of you. Here we are, mathematically speaking, our next target is 118.75 and then 112.50. I’m not going to talk about any potential buy signals today. It’s just not the day to do that. Then Apple, well, Apple had an early warning signal there at the top of the screen. We’re coming down. There has not been aggressive selling. Earnings come out next week, maybe investors are waiting to for those earnings to come out. The next big tell, of course, is going to be if we can hold the recent low from September at the other end, what are you looking at here? You’re looking at a high, lower, high, lower, high, and… And now the recent rally struggled and could not get out of the Flypaper channel.

So that is a bearish sign. We are sitting on the 200 day moving average. You can see there’s an open gap below us, not too far below us, but at 167.04, that could be a potential target. And if we break down below that open gap, then 162.50 would be our next target. And again, no reason to talk about potential buy signals on Thursday. Looking at Meta, Meta coming off the top of the Panic Zones there, you see the early warning signal, but the stock is still holding up incredibly well. The FlyPaper channel has done what it’s supposed to do, which in a bullish situation, people are going to be willing to buy the dips. That has been happening over the past couple of months, August, September. Now we’re into October. Does that continue or do we break down from here? Now looking at moving averages, we’re just sitting at the 50 day. The 100 and the 200 day are below us and the 200 day is way down there just above 250. Now looking at our price targets, you can see that we’re far away from that 200 day moving average. It’s going to take a lot of selling to get down from here.

You can see that in August, we traded below the 281.25 level. That could certainly be a reasonable target if the market wants to continue to stay bullish on Meta. The pros are just about to give up control on the stock. We’ll just have to wait and see if that continues. What we’re seeing in the premarket this morning is Meta trading down $9.10 in the premarket down towards the 290 level. Now looking at Microsoft, Microsoft is still on a buy signal right now. We came into yesterday’s trading action on a buy signal. We’ve been there for a few weeks. If you were looking at price targets, if you were long Microsoft going into yesterday’s trading action, you had an order up there at the 343.75 area andtoching. It got filled yesterday, so congratulations. That might be as high as Microsoft can go for this particular move. We saw it pull back in today, and wouldn’t be surprised if it continued to pull back on Thursday. Last up, Tesla. Tesla. You’ll look across the top of the screen, you’ll see a series of lower highs. Then we were looking to see if the recent low in September was going to hold.

That didn’t. We were also looking at this nice triangle. It was looking, it could go either way, but it went to the downside. The August low did not hold. That’s bearish. We’re looking for lower prices from here. Looking at our price target chart, if you’re shorting Tesla, you want to take some money off the table at 187.50, and then have another order in at 156.25. As I always say, when you’re shorting or long a stock, you want to take profits at the price targets. At the same time, you don’t want to completely liquidate a position. Tesla is already on a sell signal, of course. Now, I would normally tell you that we’d get a buy signal if we had a close on Thursday above 2:39.38. That’s highly unlikely to happen today. There’s a nice open gap on the way up. And, of course, years, we’re already heading in the wrong direction. And, of course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Looking for some selling at the open on Thursday morning. Unless those economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning totally shock the market.

That’s probably not going to be the case, but it could happen. There is always a mathematical probability that the strangest things could happen, highly unlikely. But yeah, it’s possible. Have a great day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning. And on Friday morning, I have a blood donors appointment. I hope you have a blood donors appointment booked in the not so distant future.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, October 26, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from the theUpTrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are fairly mixed and they’re also fairly quiet. We’ve got Dow futures up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading slightly lower. Commodities are flat, bond yields are flat, so not a lot going on Wednesday morning. Now, the stock index futures, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq are trading lower. A couple of stocks that are already on sell signals are trading down. We’ve got alphabet and Meta are trading lower. They probably have the biggest effect on premarket activity. Now, we’re going to do a little chart school this morning, and we’ll start off looking at the US market. Now, as we always do, we try to start off looking at the VIX. And the VIX is one day away from a new high, traded back into the channel yesterday. A close below $17.96 would probably be the first sign that something new is happening on the bullish side of the overall stock market. Of course, we’re going to need to get down below the bottom of the Flypaper Channel before things start to really clear up.

Looking at the VIX for the Nasdaq, it traded right through the lower channel line yesterday, and we do expect the Nasdaq to probably lead us into the year end rally. That, of course, has not started yet. Then the Russell 2000, again, we’re on a buy signal here that’s negative for stocks. That, of course, could start to change if the VIX for the Russell were to close below $22.20 events on Wednesday. Now, yesterday, I spent some time pooh-pooling the DOW. Of course, we use the DOW because it’s a baseline. You’re in the car, you turn on the radio, if they’re going to give you any information about the stock market on your normal radio station, not a business radio station, but a normal radio station, they’re going to lead off with the DOW. It’s the easiest way to keep track of what the overall stock market is doing or the mood of the stock market. Two things I see on this chart. Well, the bullish note, we did not break down below the recent low, so that’s bullish. On a neutral note, we traded up yesterday, we did not close above the previous day’s high. So that was a fairly neutral day.

Even though the DOW was up over 200 points, it doesn’t really mean very much. There’s daily volatility. The stock market swings back and forth continuously. What we’re looking for here is the start of a trend. And yesterday did not indicate a start of a new trend. Now, I may talk about what the DOW is doing in the premarket, but I’m probably never going to show a DOW chart in the presentation. That’s also true for the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and even the TSX. I rarely show those charts and the reason for it is nobody’s trading those. They’re trading the corresponding ETF such as the DOW Diamonds. It’s important that you make all your decisions based on what the individual ETFs are doing or the individual stocks, not the corresponding index or futures contract. Those can be out of sync, especially when you’re looking at commodities, the price of gold, the price of crude oil can go up. But at the same time, if the stock market does not want stocks right now, they can push down the corresponding ETFs and stocks in those sectors. When we’re looking at something such as the DOW Diamonds, traders can front-run the market with the ETFs, and that can be a good and a bad thing.

If Chairman Powell is speaking this afternoon investors have a hunch that he’s going to say something bullish for the stock market, they can go in and buy the DOW Diamonds and it can move up much faster than the index itself. That can be good for you. You can take your ETF up to the next price target fairly quickly. On the downside, if they get overly bearish, they can run down the DOW Diamonds ahead of the index. And so while there’s an underlying correspondence to it, investors can pay whatever they want for these ETFs or corresponding stocks. Just because the DOW is up 10 points doesn’t mean that investors can’t pay a lot more for the DOW Diamonds. So that is true for stocks. It’s also true for commodities. If you’re out driving in the car, you turn on the news, they may mention what the DOW is doing. They may mention what the price of gold and the price of oil are doing and they won’t talk about the individual stocks or ETFs that correspond with those. Yeah, it’s a good guide. I know that 99% of the people watching this video are not going to be actively trading the price of gold, especially the futures contract.

They may be trading stocks. They may be trading the GDL, but they’re certainly not actively trading the futures contracts. Just be aware, there’s a separation. You need to just focus on the individual items that you’re actually trading. Not following, but trading. The GDX is another one. It’s the major gold and silver index in the US. We can watch it, we can set price targets, but nobody’s actually trading it. The fact that it went up to 18.75 is a good indication, but what are people actually trading? Now, we can look at individual stocks. It’s hard to do because there’s so many gold stocks out there. If I’m going to look at a gold stock in the presentation, I’m probably going to look at Barrick or one of the big cap ones because that’s going to cover the most people watching the video. Barrick’s been nice to us lately. It ran up to 21.88. You got to take some profits. It ran up to 23.44, got two cents higher. If you had an order in around there, it got filled. Now you’re sitting with a partial position. You’re looking for a breakdown on Wednesday below 21.63. If that doesn’t happen, of course, the lower chain line is going to continue to move lower daily.

What are people trading? Well, the majority of people investing in the gold and silver market are probably using the major ETFs. That’s why we follow the GDX. Gdx ran up to our next price target. It started to pull back. We’re looking to get kicked out after taking profits. Then north of the border, of course, the XGD is one of the most popular ETFs out there. Again, we’ve had a chance to take money off the table. It didn’t get as high as 17.97. If you had an order and just below that, it got filled. Congratulations. When we look at this particular ETF, we’ve had a couple of bearish reversal signals. That should be a warning that this is the time and place to expect the market to pull back. There’s no guarantee. There’s no guarantee that the early warning signal on the panic zone chart, which just went off. There’s no guarantee that that’s going to pull the market down. But if we look and see what it’s done recently, it’s a pretty good indication that this is the time and place for the market to start to pull back. Now, continuing to look at the US market, instead of looking at the S&P 500 Index itself, we’re looking at the ETF, which is the most popular ETF in the world.

You can see that we recently made a lower-low on a Monday. That’s a bear sign. Didn’t close below it, but we did make a lower-low. Again, it’s a pattern of lower highs, lower lows. The Nasdaq, which is looking a little more bullish because we did hold that low. But again, in both cases, do we close above the previous day’s high? No, we didn’t. No, we didn’t. We closed at the previous day’s high. Yesterday was a fairly neutral day for the overall market.

Now, taking a broader look at the US stock market and farther away from those big cap tech stocks, you’ve got the Russell 2000. This is an incredibly popular US ETF.

You can

see we made a new low on Monday, on Tuesday, did we close above the previous day’s high? We did not. That’s a bearish sign. That is also true for the iShare’s Microcap ETF. I realize that 99% of you do not own any US Microcap stocks. That’s not.

Really what.

We’re using this chart for. This chart is a great indication of the overall mood of the average US investor. I don’t need to get on the phone and call people or poll my subscribers. I can tell right from this chart the mood of the market. If people are successful, if people are bullish about the stock market, they’re going to go looking for.

Opportunities

in Microcap stocks. From this chart, I can tell you that they’re absolutely positively not doing that at the present time.

Let’s finish off today’s presentation, taking a look at the Canadian stock market. Typically, I would use the iShares for the TSX 60 to show you what’s going on in the Canadian market. Today, I was going to show the indexes themselves. The reason for that is the Canadian market does not have as many ETF opportunities. There are a lot of ETFs. Most of them are very thinly traded. There are some great sector related ETFs from iShares. But beyond that, while other people have a sector related ETFs, again, a lot of them are very thinly traded, which is dangerous. The TSX has over 200 stocks. It was down yesterday, had an inside day, so a day of indecision. On a bullish note, we’re still holding the recent lows, so that could be something going forward. The TSX 60, which is 60 stocks out of the TSX themselves, the big cap stocks. Of course, this is a very group of companies. A lot of them have international businesses. A lot of them have international listings. The international listings can help and hurt at certain times. If there’s a big rally in the US market, that could help also lift up some of these TSX60 stocks.

And of course, if there’s a big sell-off in the US, that could also pull down some of these TSX60 stocks. You can see that we had a slightly lower close yesterday, made a new low for this week, but we’re still holding the recent low. Now, if you take the TSX 60 stocks out of the TSX, you’re left with this index, which was basically unchanged yesterday and having an inside day, small caps, fairly quiet trading yesterday, and micro caps. Unfortunately, they traded higher yesterday, but they’re still on a sell signal here. Again, I can use the venture exchange similar to the micro cap stocks in the US as an indication of the overall mood of the Canadian investor. Now, gold stocks are still holding up at the moment. Without gold stocks, without energy stocks, the TSX would be much lower than it is now. Energy stocks are starting to roll over. Some of the big cap stocks have rolled over. Not necessarily all energy stocks have rolled over just yet. We’re still waiting for some of them. Now, what we’re going to be looking for is do we continue to hold up here? Does the Flypaper Channel act as support?

Does 250 act as support? We put in a higher high last week, which is bullish. Now we have to see if we can put in a higher low. Looking at the global mining sector, not doing well at the moment, still in the Flypaper Channel. That’s also true from material stocks. So unlike the gold sector, these stocks are not doing well at the moment. There’s a clean technology index. I never talk about it. Really, as you can see, there’s no reason to. I don’t know much about it and nobody ever asks about it, so that’s why I don’t talk about it. Consumer Discretionary, this is the area of the market that should do well in a coming recession, not doing well at the moment. Infotech. Now, the reason I’m showing you this chart, of course, is because just like the Nasdaq-100, we are still holding support from the September lows. Now we’re looking for not only a buy signal, that would be something. But what we would really be looking for is a breakout above the October highs. That would be a tell that something new is really starting to happen. Looking at the telecom services, we’re on a sell signal right now.

We’re still holding the recent low and that could be something going forward. It isn’t anything on Wednesday morning. Then financial services and bank stocks, this is pretty horrible at the moment. One of the reasons it’s really horrible is that 95% of all Canadian investors have money in bank stocks whether they know it or not. If they own any major ETFs, if they own any major mutual funds, they’re totally invested in bank stocks and this is not going well at the moment. The pros gave up control at the start of August and it does not look like they want to come back and take control on Wednesday. Industrials made a new low on Tuesday. They’re down at the bottom of the panic zones. This is what October often looks like. I would certainly be interested in looking for buying opportunities if we start to move up from here. We’re seeing panic selling. That’s what we’re seeing at the moment. That’s also true for the Canadian Real Estate sector. Back in the summer, things were looking a little brighter. We put in a higher high and a higher low. Then we started to come into September, we put in a lower high.

That was our first warning sign. Then we took out the recent lows, so put in a lower low. That was a very bearish sign. We were hoping to find support at the June low. That didn’t work out. So the June low is now acting as resistance. What was once support is now resistance. It will not only be a buy signal that is going to make us bullish, it’s also going to be a move out above the October high. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, this is what October often looks like. We’ve had panic selling here. We want to be buyers down in this area, not sellers. This is where the average retail investor throws in the towel. And once they throw in the towel, that’s usually the sign that the market is about to reverse. Let’s finish off looking at a couple of the TSX most actives. And we’ve got some bright signs here. Embridge traded back into the channel after making a higher-low on Monday. That is going to mean something if not only we get a close above 4.4, 47, but if we start trading above the high from last week, we’re seeing money go back into Bitcoin stocks as Bitcoin has had a good week.

Hut 8 is on its second day of a buy signal. Looking at TC Energy, looking for a close above 47.53. And of course, the tell will be, not only did we put in a higher low, but if we start breaking out above the October high, that would be a higher high. That would be bullish. No joy for the bank stocks as we looked at a couple of minutes ago. So TD Bank, which at one time was the big winner, is coming down with the rest of the banking sector. Manulife inside day yesterday, still holding the August lows. It could be something there in the future, but not on a Wednesday morning. And then, Baytex, unlike some of the big cap energy stocks, has not rolled over just yet. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $5.84 to give us a new sell signal for Baytex. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. It’s fairly quiet out there. Dow futures up, Nasdaq S&P 500 features down, commodities are barely moving anywhere on Wednesday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, October 25, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:01:11]: VIX and Stock Market Analysis
[00:02:25]: The Dow and S&P Analysis
[00:03:41]: Nasdaq and Semiconductor Analysis
[00:05:00]: US Dollar and Bond Market Analysis
[00:06:10]: Crude Oil and Gasoline Market Analysis
[00:07:22]: Metals Market Analysis
[00:08:48]: Big Cap Tech Stocks Analysis
[00:10:03]: TSX Infotech Index and Individual Stock Analysis
[00:11:20]: Conclusion and Market Outlook

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. DOW futures currently up 100 points. We’ve got commodities mixed with crude oil slightly higher, while gold is down another $10 in the premarket on Tuesday morning. Well, this is the average investor right now just sitting on the edge, wondering if they should be panic sellers. We are down at support at the moment and we’re looking to see if we can hold that support. Now, the most significant thing to happen on Monday was probably Bill Ackman saying that he covered his short positions in US bonds, and that put a bit into bonds yesterday as it may potentially mark the bottom for bonds and the top for bond yields. Now, bond yields in the premarket this morning are trading higher. We’re not seeing fall through to the downside on Tuesday morning. That, of course, could change over time. Looking at the VIX, we made a new high for the VIX before pulling back and actually closing lower on the day by 6.17 %. We are still closing above the upper channel line.

On Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below $17.71. Of course, a sell signal in the VIX is positive for the stock market as it tells us that options traders are starting to get bullish on the overall stock market. Now, the Dow traded down yesterday and closed near the lower of the day. That had a lot to do with Intel and Chevron. The DOW itself is not the most followed ETF. It is not the most followed product on Wall Street. The media loves the DOW. The public knows what the DOW is. Of course, it’s the oldest index in North America, but the stock market itself, the institutions, the pros, they do not follow the DOW or care about it. I can show you that in several ways. The first way to see it is just to look at the volumes and the DOW diamonds, which we’re showing here, was the 97th most actively traded ETF in the US on Monday. If you include the 2X and 3X ETFs, it was the 129th most actively traded ETF in the United States. What does the market watch? Well, they watched the S&P 500, which actually made a new low on Monday.

We recently put in a lower high. Now we’re putting in a lower low. We didn’t close below the previous low, but we closed at the previous low. When you look at the most actively traded ETFs in the US, and not only the volume, but the dollar, the amount that it’s actually trading at. So if you multiply the volume times the closing price, here is where all the money is. It’s in the SPY, it’s in the Triple Qs, it’s in the IWM, and it’s in the TLT. Those are the four biggest ETFs trading in the United States right now, even when you include the 2X and 3X ETFs. Now, if we start breaking down below yesterday’s low and breaking away from the 421.88 level, and you can see we’re still attached to that. If we start breaking down, it wouldn’t be surprising if we move down to the 406.25 level and even down to 400 dollars. That has not started yet. Where there’s hope? Well, there’s hope in the Nasdaq, which did not break down below the September low. So that is still in place. We did make a lower low yesterday, but we did not break down below the 351.56 level.

So the market is sitting right on the edge there, hoping that we can hold yesterday’s low on Tuesday. Now, semiconductors did make a new low yesterday, and a lot of symbols made new 52-week lows on Monday. We’ll take a look at that in a minute. The at TSX continued to move lower on Monday, but did not retest the recent low just yet. We’ll have to hope that that does not happen. Now, talking about 52 week lows, we brought this up last week, and we were looking at 26 new highs on the NYSE followed by 482 new lows. That has expanded and we made a new high for the number of 52 week lows on Monday. That is also true in Canada, where yesterday in the Canadian market, we had 8 new 52 week highs followed by 220 new 52 week lows. Now, the US dollar index came back down to the recent low. The pros are starting to give up control on the US dollar index. That move in rates yesterday and bond prices affected the US dollar and money may be coming out of the US dollar. That could be bullish for the stock market going forward.

Now, when we look at this particular chart, you’ll notice that the public line is fairly flat. The reason for that is there’s not a lot of the public moving the US dollar index around. It’s mostly banks, central banks, corporations, institutions. Those are the ones that are moving the US dollar index around. It has very little to do with the public. So if you’re looking at different charts and the public line is basically flat, that is telling you that the public does not really have much sway in that particular market, and certainly for the US dollar index, that is true. Now looking at bond yields, we saw the TLT move up yesterday over 1%. That was in the news yesterday because the volume was almost double the average daily volume. So a lot of people listening to what Bill Ackman said and getting back in there buying bonds, the pros are nowhere near taking control. And last time we got a little buy signal. Again, the pros were nowhere near control. So it’s going to take a while for the bond market to sort itself out if it wants to start moving higher from here.

And looking at the 10-year bond, it moved up into the channel yesterday, not enough, of course, to give us a buy signal, and the yield came down to the upper channel line. Again, not enough to give us a sell signal. In the premarket this morning, it’s actually moving up. We’re not seeing a lot of fall through to the downside on Tuesday morning. Looking at commodities and we’ll look at the major commodity ETFs trading in the US. The USO pulled back into the channel yesterday. For crude oil to give us a sell signal on Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below $77.72. In the premarket, we are trading higher, so we’re not expecting a sell signal on Tuesday from the information we have today. Gasoline pulled back to the upper channel line on Monday. You can see the big sell off after the summer driving season ended and we’re seeing if we can hold a buy signal for any longer than one week. A close below $64.24 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Not expecting that to happen. Again, no joy for natural gas, still on a cell signal here trying to hold the 6.80 level on the UNG.

Then moving over to metals, the GLD moved up to resistance at 184.38 and has started to pull back. You can see that’s where we capped off back in July. Looking at palladium, no joy there. We need to close above 105.87 on Tuesday. Platinum is still on a buy signal, not going anywhere at the moment. And Silver, Silver ran up to the September high and started to pull back. We’re trying to get up to 21.88, which would be up at the bottom of that open gap from August, but so far, no joy. So that is a very bearish sign for the metals market to see silver pull back and not able to make a higher high. Looking at big cap tech stocks, and this is where a lot of the activity was on Monday, we saw NVIDIA up over 3%, nearly 4% on the day. And the reason for that was NVIDIA announced that they were going to start making computer CPUs. And of course, whose market is that? Well, it’s Intels and it’s AMDs. And both of those stocks pulled back pulling the SOX index and semiconductor ETFs lower on Monday. We haven’t talked about the ARK products recently and the ARK Innovation ETF made a new low yesterday, getting right down to the bottom of our daily projected trading range, which is 34.38. That’s the bottom of the range.

Of course, it has traded below that before. We’ll have to see if we can get some money flow back into the ARK Innovations ETF before we hit the bottom of the projected trading range. Now, just like the Nasdaq-100, the TSX Infotech Index is also holding recent support. Unfortunately, BlackBerry made a new low yesterday. Remember, BlackBerry gapped lower and then moved back up to fill that gap. I really thought that investors would hate that move and that’s exactly what happened. Blackberry has been punished ever since. Looking at the light speed, it is holding the recent low as well. And so is Shopify. Shopify still holding the 68.75 level. If that breaks down, 62.50 would be our next target to the downside. Of course, we have an open gap back there to the left. So if you’re a Shopify trader, Shopify investor, you know where that gap is, you know what the bottom is, you know what the top is. And we’ve been trading in the gap but have not got down to the bottom so far. Then last up, Tesla. Tesla made a new low for this move yesterday before we’re covering and closing up nine cents on the day.

So that’s something for Tesla investors to be happy about. But unfortunately, at the same time, we made a lower low on Monday, and of course, that is bearish. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We are getting closer to month end, which may help stabilize the market. We’re still a ways away from that, but it is coming up. So just keep that in the back of your mind that the month end is coming up, and that usually has a bullish bias for the market. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. Dow futures currently down to 180 points. Well, the title of this video is Five Weeks of Fear. It’s been five weeks since the VIX gave us a weekly buy signal, and that tells us that options traders are concerned about the direction of the stock market. On Friday, the VIX closed at a new high for this move. We are going to remain long term bearish on the stock market as long as the VIX continues to trade and close above $14.75. If on Friday we close below $14.75, we are going to turn from being long term bearish to long term bullish. Now, during the past five weeks, the stock market has tried to rally and of course, it has been those big cap tech stocks that have led the market higher. And if we look at just who’s in control, you can see that on the Nasdaq-100, the Pros did come back and take control. They’re starting to give up control right now. Now, the rest of the market didn’t perform as well.

And you can see on the S&P 500, yes, the Pros did take control, but have given up control. On the Dow, that never happened. That never happened on the TSX-60, the Pros never took control. That is also true for the Russell 2000, the Russell MicroCap Index and on the TSX Venture exchange, we saw no sign of the Pros taking control. If we go back to the US MicroCaps, you can see the Pros gave up control back here in August. That’s also true on The Venture Exchange, but they did come back once for a couple of days to take control, really didn’t see a lot of price movement in the index itself. And as I’ve mentioned many times over the years, the stock market is a lot more fun. It’s a lot easier to make money when microcap stocks are trending higher. Now, we’ve talked about the Russell 2000 several times over the past couple of months where I’ve looked at this chart. And the Russell 2000 has been in a tight range for almost two years now. And on the IWM, $200 has been the top of the market, $162.50 has been the bottom. What’s interesting, of course, is we made a high here, a lower high, and then recently another lower high.

And a series of lower highs and lower lows, that’s a bearish scenario, that’s a bearish theme, and that has not changed. You can see the midpoint here, and we’ve been trading below the midpoint for the past couple of weeks, we’re treating towards 1.62.50, and that’ll be very important for the market. If we hold and bounce off that level, that could certainly be the catalyst for the year end rally. Otherwise, if we start to break down, the market might accelerate to the downside. Now looking at the Canadian market since the start of 2023, we’ve been in a tight range and about 90% of the trading activity has been between two waypoints here. Recently, while the VIX has been elevated, the market has started to break down and we are heading towards 18,750. That will be our first line of defense. Otherwise, if we start breaking down below 18,750. You can see the next line down is major support from 2022. Now, year to date, the TSX is negative. It’s down 1.39% for 2023. Now, in the next part of the presentation, we’re going to be focusing on the Fly Paper Channel chart. I’m going to use the Dow 30 just to do some very quick market analysis.

Of course, there’s winners and losers, and winners are typically stocks trading above the Fly Paper Channel in which investors are willing to buy the dips. That is certainly true of Amgen. Amgen made a new high last week before starting to pull back at the end of the week with the rest of the market. A loser is a stock trading in or below the Fly Paper Channel in which investors are willing to sell the rips. American Express is a good example of that. Anytime a stock is trading below the Fly Paper Channel, we assume the Fly Paper Channel is going to act as resistance. For us to go from a bear market to a bull market or to start a year-end rally, we need a lot of these stocks to start breaking out above the Fly Paper Channel. That did not happen over the recent rally that we saw in the market. Now, Apple, of course, is the biggest, most important stock in the world, and it was doing really well until late July. It came back, found support in the Fly Paper Channel. They bought the dip. We could only get it up into the open gap, and then we came right back down.

Now, one thing you’re going to notice, of course, when you’re looking at Apple, is the fact that we are now starting to make a series of lower highs and lower lows. Now, we made a lower low in September. We’ll have to see if that holds as support. If it can hold the support, that could hold up the rest of the market if it starts to break, that may be one of the catalysts for the market to accelerate to the downside. Now Tesla, on the other hand, which is not a Dow 30 stock, but of course, is the most actively traded stock out there. You can see that we came down hard into August and then we came back up. And where do we get to? Well, we couldn’t fill the open gap. We got up to the bottom of it before pulling back. And again, look at the major chart pattern that’s going on here. We’re making lower highs and on Friday we made a lower low. And so that is a bearish chart pattern and that should continue going forward until it is broken. No hope for Tesla on Monday. Now, NVIDIA is still holding up fairly well.

We did recently put in a lower high. We noted that. And of course, that was the set up for the market starting to pull back last week. We are still holding the recent lows. That could change on Monday. Now, Canadian natural resources, any of the energy stocks have been doing well recently. Most of them have been finding support in the Fly Paper Channel. People have continued to buy the dip. That has not changed. We made a new high last week, and most energy stocks look like this at the moment. Now, the bond yields have continued to move higher. This morning, or on Friday, you can see on the 10-year yield, the high was 4.993. For a little while this morning, it was trading over 5%, and that certainly helped pull stock index futures down this morning. Now, with the yields going up, any of the financial institutions have been having a hard time. There’s CIBC making a new low on Friday. You can see Bank of America has been trading below the Fly Paper Channel for some time now. That’s also true for Citi Group. You can see that we were trying to poke our head out above the Fly Paper channel, but couldn’t break away from it.

That’s a high over here, a lower high, lower high, lower high. And what do you know? Recently, we put in more lower highs and lower lows. So a series of those is a very bearish sign. Now looking at the Dow 30 stocks, we’ve already looked at a couple, but Boeing are not looking healthy at the moment. There’s Caterpillar starting to break down below the Fly Paper channel. We’ve got Salesforce stuck to the Fly Paper channel right now, but again, we’re looking at a series of lower highs and recently a lower low in September and a lower high last week. So not looking very bullish. Cisco system still holding the Fly Paper Channel. It hasn’t broken yet. That could change on Monday. Now, Chevron is in the news this morning. It looks like it’s buying Hess, and that’ll probably put downward pressure on this stock. If you look at how wide this Fly Paper Channel is, it tells us that long term volatility is very low. And so this is certainly not a stock that you would want to be trading. There are much better energy stocks out there with a lot more volatility that are worth risking your money on than Chevron.

Then Disney has been in a bear market for a while now, and you can see last week, or over the past couple of weeks, we’ve driven up to the Fly Paper Channel. Once again, it acted as a resistance, and now we’re starting to pull down. There’s Dow trading below the Fly Paper Channel. There’s Goldman Sachs making a new low last week. Then Home Depot, and you can see the nice big rally that looked like the summer renovation season starting on June first and ending on September first. Then the stock started to roll over. Looking at Honeywell, you can see the direction of the Fly Paper Channel, so nothing to talk about there. Ibm, the Fly Paper Channel has started to flatten out for a while there. You can see investors were willing to buy any dips. Now we’re oversold and looking to see if the low from last week is going to hold. Then looking at Intel, Intel has been a big surprise in 2023. It has been hated for a long time, but has done fairly well in 2023, still holding up. Flypaper channel still pointing higher. Then looking at Johnson & Johnson, new low last week for this move.

And you can see we’re trying to hold the lows from back in March of this year. Then looking at JPMorgan, flat Fly Paper Channel. This was a little anomaly, this pop here. Otherwise, we would have been in the channel for a couple of months now. And now we’re looking to see if we can hold the September low. No joy for Coca-Cola, no joy from McDonalds. Then looking at 3M, pretty ugly here. We put in a high, put in a lower high. That was a warning signal. Then, of course, once you take out the previous low, it tells you that bad things are probably going to happen. That was certainly the case for 3M. There’s Merck, a new low last Thursday. Then looking at Microsoft. Microsoft is still holding up, but look at what happened. We put in a high, a lower high. We put in a lower, lower, low. I’m pretty sure that Microsoft is going to be heading lower from here. Then looking at Nike. Well, Nike has started to break down back in May of this year. They took it up to the Fly Paper Channel. They took it up to the Fly Paper Channel.

Now they’ve taken it up to the Fly Paper Channel. What do you think is going to happen next? Do we break out or start to pull back? I believe we’re going to start to pull back. Then Proctor & Gamble, we’re trading up into the Fly Paper Channel. You can see that we’re trading up to previous resistance, and that’s probably as high as we’re going to be able to go at this particular time. Then the Travelers group, again, there was a one day anomaly where we popped up through the Fly Paper Channel and quickly reversed, so no joy there. Unitedhealthcare made a new high last week, so that stock is still loved at the moment. And then no joy for Visa trading up into the Fly Paper Channel now starting to pull back. No joy for Verizon. It’s been a dog all year and the Fly Paper Channel has continued to act as resistance. So if we can continue to move higher, we would expect the Fly Paper Channel to continue to act as resistance. Walgreens has also been a dog in 2023. No joy there. Looking to see if we can hold the September Low, which we tested on Friday. And given what the future is doing in the premarket, we’ll probably start to break down below that on Monday.

And last up, looking at Walmart. Walmart recently put in a lower low. It looks like we put in a lower high last week. So wouldn’t be surprised if Walmart continued to move lower from here. Let’s finish off with the daily VIX. And again, we made a new High on Friday. On Monday, we’re going to remain bearish on the market on a short term basis unless the VIX starts to close below 17.36. Of course, we’re also going to be watching to see what the Pros do with the VIX. Right now, the Pros are in control. If they start to give up control, that would certainly turn us from being short-term bearish to short-term bullish. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Obviously, the recent rally didn’t change the overall tone of the market. Bigcap tech stocks are still leading the market higher. Outside of Bigcap tech stocks, there’s a handful of winners, but it’s not really broadly based. It’s still looking pretty gloomy for the market in the month of October. Hopefully, that could change in the not so distant future, but it’s not going to change on Monday morning. Have a great day, folks.

And the next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, October 23, 2023

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the premarket this morning, it’s a mixed market. We’ve got stock index futures trading lower, being led lower by the Nasdaq. At the same time, we’ve got commodities pressing higher in the premarket. Now, one stock that’s in the news this morning is United Airlines. They’re out with earnings, they’re down another 5%. So if you’re short any of the airline stocks, no reason to change that position on Wednesday. Now, talking about market stress, we’ve got the VIX for the S&P 500, the VIX for the Nasdaq, and the VIX for the Russell 2000 all elevated, and none of them are trending lower at the moment. So you can see that options traders are fairly stressed at the moment. At the same time, stock indexes are on buy signals at the moment. So that’s usually not the case. We’ve got the Dow, we’ve got the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the TSX-60 all on buy signals coming into Wednesday’s trading action. So the market is very perplexed at the moment, and I’d be a lot more bullish if the VIX was trending lower.

Of course, what’s probably happening right now is people are probably trying to get ahead of the end of year rally. Here’s where we are right now on the seasonal chart. I believe people think that the worst is over and it’s time to jump in to that year end rally. Now, unfortunately, the rest of the market doesn’t think so. We’ve got bond yields making new highs on Tuesday. And if we look at a monthly chart of bond yields on the five year bond, you can see what’s been going on over the past couple of years. Now, typically when the Fed is tightening, they do it until something breaks. Of course, we don’t know what’s going to break. Could it be another regional bank? Could it be a major bank? Could they take an airline out? Something is going to break before the Fed stops pressing rates higher. And that hasn’t happened yet. It could be a country, it could be China. We don’t know. We’ll just have to wait and see. But you can see from the trend in yields that bond traders are getting crushed right now. And the bond market is so much bigger than the stock market.

So they’re not a happy group. And looking around the world, people are still putting money into the US dollar over other currencies. And that’s a sign of global stress. Then looking at commodities, we’ve got crude oil has been trading on a buy signal for the past couple of days. It’s been in the channel, so it hasn’t been trending higher. That could change on Wednesday as crude oil is being bid up in the premarket. And gold, which has shot up because of the tension in Israel and Gaza, it is up again in the premarket this morning. We might be heading towards that September high on Wednesday. Now going in the other direction is Copper. And if it’s a global economic barometer, it’s not pointing to a bright future at the moment. And on Tuesday, we made a lower low for the price of Copper. Now getting back to the S&P 500, we’ve been talking about this over the past couple of days. We’re stuck in a range 437.50 at the high and 429.69 at the low. And that’s the range for the past couple of weeks. We are looking to retest the bottom or the top of the open gap, the bottom of that bar, which is at 438.43, we got as high as 438.14 yesterday.

So again, we were unable to close that gap. Now, if we can close the gap and move higher, not just close the gap and move lower, but close the gap and move higher, then the next two lines come into play, and that would take us potentially up to the 453.13 level. On the downside, if we break down below 429.69, then 421.88 comes back into play, and retest of the September Low would not be the worst thing in the world for the market to do before we rush in to the year end rally. Now, one of the things I watched closely is what is the market doing with micro caps and both the Venture Exchange and the iShare Microcap ETF are both still on sell signals. If we see money go back into those, that could be a sign that the market tension is starting to fall. Now looking at the TSX most active and we won’t go through them all, but here’s Enbridge, the most actively traded Canadian stock yesterday. The first thing you should visually just draw without drawing them on the screen, but just visually, you should see a series of lower highs and lower lows, and that is a very bearish chart pattern.

So it’s going to take a lot to change that for this particular stock or any stock that looks like this for that matter. Energy stocks continue to push higher on Tuesday, so no change there. For a TOU, we are looking for $75 as our next price target to the upside. Then looking at banks, the TD Bank, which has looked like the strongest of the Canadian banks over the past few months is on a buy signal right now that is not true for the Royal Bank or for the Bank of Nova Scotia. And the Bank of Nova Scotia, of course, has looked like the weakest Canadian bank over the past few months. Gold stocks got another bid in yesterday, continue to move higher. If you’re trading Kinros, we hit 7.23 yesterday. So 7.42, 7.62 are the next two targets to the upside. And then Air Canada looking very similar to the US Airlines at the moment, having an inside day yesterday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continued to trade lower on Wednesday. Let’s move from Toronto to New York. The most actively traded US stock yesterday was Bank of America. We made a new closing high for this move on Tuesday.

Then looking at Tesla, Tesla is coming into earnings on a sell signal. That would change on Wednesday with a close above 261.02. Then looking at Southwestern energy, big pop there yesterday, a lot of energy stocks popping on Tuesday. Nvidia, on the other hand, went in the opposite direction. We are now back on a sell signal. If you were trading NVIDIA, you took profits at 468.75, congratulations. We are trying to take another run at 500, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen on this move. Then looking at Organon, we are back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at Apple, Apple traded through the lower channel line on Tuesday, but did not close below it. Very bearish-looking chart there with looks like we put in a lower high on Thursday. Then on Wednesday, we’re looking for a close below $175.62. We did hit our next price target of 181.25. So far you’ve been able to lock in some profits at that level. Then looking at Palantir, still on a buy signal, no change there. Then looking at Advanced Micro Devices, yes, we traded through the lower channel line, but we did not close below it.

That would change on Wednesday with a close below $103.83. Last up this morning, American Airlines is still on a sell signal, no change. From what we’re seeing in the premarket this morning, wouldn’t be surprised if it made a new low on Wednesday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation, looking for a little selling in the overall market on Wednesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading slightly below fair value. Commodities are mixed. We are coming up to some economic numbers at 8:30 this morning and then at 10:00 and of course those numbers could add to market volatility.

Now yesterday was an inside day for a lot of areas of the market. The VIX had an inside day. So on Tuesday we’re looking for a close below 1675 to give us a new sell signal that of course would be supportive for higher stock prices in the Canadian market. The Ishares for the TSX 60 had an inside day. We had an inside day for the Nasdaq, 100 for Semiconductors.

We did not have an inside day for the Dow or the S&P 500. Unable to take out the high from two days ago. Trading up into the gap 437.50 is current. Resistance support is at 429.69. Is resistance holding?

Well, over the past couple of days we’ve run up three times and we’ve been unable to take out that area of resistance. As high as we got was 437.34. Now just above that resistance is the top of the open gap at 438.43. So that’s going to be a very important number to watch to see what the market does if it goes up and fills that gap at this particular time. If we can take out that gap then 445.31 comes into play.

Now looking at gold miners this morning and the price of gold back on the 11th of the month we generated a buy signal for gold at that time, our next price target was 1937.50. And what do you know? Well we’ve run up to that level and stopped and so now we’re looking to see if we can break out and retest the highs from back in September on our way to $2,000. Unfortunately we’re stuck at the moving average convergence here and yesterday we traded between the 51 hundred day moving average with the 200 day just above us.

So that is going to be a big ask to get the market to start trading above those levels. We’ll just have to wait and see. Looking at the GDX and looking at the Panic Zone chart, you can see we are certainly projecting higher prices right now, but the GDX has been a series of lower highs and lower lows. Right now we are looking to see if we can retest the high from September and to do that we’re going to have to get up to our next price target of 29.69. Unfortunately the pros have not taken control so far, even though we’ve been on a buy signal for a few days now.

Looking north of the border, looking at the XGD, this chart is looking very similar. It is a different mix of international, Canadian and international gold companies. You can see we’ve traded up and getting pretty close to those September highs and the pros are starting to take control. So we have hit our next price target of 17.19. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits.

Our next target, of course, is going to be the high from late August and into September, and that’s up at the 17.54, I think 17.57 level. If we can take that out, then of course 17.97 would come into play. Next up, let’s take a look at the energy sector, and crude oil generated a buy signal on Friday, small pullback on Monday. It is trading higher in the pre market this morning.

Unlike gold, which is seeing the moving averages act as resistance, crude oil is using them as support. And so we wouldn’t be surprised if we had a move back up to the recent high. Unfortunately, the pros have not taken control just yet. Remember, we’re only on our second day of a buy signal, so we’ll give them a couple of more days to see if they come back in. Natural gas pulled back to the lower channel line yesterday, looking for a close on Tuesday.

Below $3.70. 3.71 is support. 4.10 is acting as resistance. Of course, we always look for moves to be two lines at a time. And so if we start breaking down below 3.71, then two lines down takes us back to the 3.32 level.

Unfortunately, the fly paper channel is still acting as resistance for natural gas and that is unfortunate. Of course, it’s going to be a big celebration if we can start breaking out above those levels. Then looking at energy stocks, the XGD is on its fourth day of a buy signal here. When you look at this chart, you can see that it’s crunched in. This particular chart is set to always have price in the middle of the chart.

So if you are coming up to the top of the projected trading range, this is going to be flattened down. The top of the projected trading range is up there at 17.97. If we want to look beyond that, you can simply do the math or you can go to the weekly chart and see that 18.75 would be our next target. So if we take out the top of the daily range, 18.75 would be our next target and that would take us back to the high from early 2022. Then looking at US

Energy stocks on the XLE. Again, looking at a weekly chart, you can see that 93.75 is our next target and we ran up to that recently and that has acted as resistance. If we can take that out, then $100 certainly comes into play. Moving back to the daily chart, you can see 93.75 is the top of the range right now and 84.38 is the bottom of the range at the moment. And there we are on our second day of a buy signal. For the XLE.

Okay, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far it looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open on Tuesday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day. The next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, October 17, 2023