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Stock Market Outlook 10122023

Hey, good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. That is, of course, before those economic numbers come out at 8:30. We’re expecting CPI and jobless claims to come out and either of those numbers could certainly affect the direction of the stock market coming into Thursday’s trading.

Fear is still falling and that of course, is supportive for higher stock prices. So let’s get into the charts now. The VIX continued to move lower on Wednesday, down 5.52% on the day. The VIX of the VIX is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices.

The US dollar index still on a sell signal, closing down just a penny yesterday. Then we’ve got the 30 year bond back on a buy signal. The yield on the 30 year bond back on a sell signal. The price of gold continue higher on Wednesday. Back on a buy signal.

We are waiting for the price of silver and it needs to close above $22.29 on Thursday to give us a buy signal. Looking at the price of crude oil, we came down, filled the gap yesterday. Now we’re moving up in the pre market, up a dollar and change. The price of natural gas had a wild day on Wednesday, but then settled down going into the close, looking at the Dow. The Dow had an inside day on Wednesday, as did the S&P 500.

S&P 500 trading in the open gap and still has not filled that gap just yet. The Nasdaq 100 made a new closing high for this move. The semiconductor is still on a buy signal. No change there. The Isares for the TSX 60 were up yesterday.

And not only was it the commodity stocks, but financials helped out as well. Then looking at financials, looking at the S&P 500 financials, we’re on a buy signal. We’re on a buy signal for US banks, for US regional banks, for broker dealers, and for the insurance sector. So all the US financials are back on buy signals. Looking at Canadian financials, we do have the financial index back on a buy signal, but we’re still waiting for banks.

We’re still looking at the Bank of Nova Scotia as the weakest. And we’ve got the TD bank back on a buy signal. Then looking at energy stocks, energy stocks in Canada were down slightly yesterday. We’re back on a buy signal here. Unlike in the US,

which was down over 1% and still on a sell signal. No change there for US financials. Copper miners pulled back slightly yesterday. Gold miners on both sides of the border continued to move higher on Wednesday. And then looking at those major tech stocks, we had Alphabet continue to break out above the September high.

We’ve got Amazon moving up to the bottom of the open gap. Then looking at Apple, Apple’s also got a gap to deal with and finding resistance at the 180 level. Then we’re looking at Meta making a new high for this move. We saw Microsoft continue to move higher on Wednesday and then we’ve got Nvidia making a new high for this move and then we’ve got Shopify pulling back now. Shopify has got an open gap so far that’s held us in check.

We’re still on a buy signal here. Looking at Shopify in New York. We’re looking for a close below 52.41 on Thursday to give us a sell signal. And then last up, Tesla. Tesla had an inside day on Wednesday, so no change for Tesla.

Still on a buy signal. That would change on Thursday with a close below 250.37 okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. I’m publishing this just before the economic numbers come out at 830.

And of course that could certainly change the direction of the market before those economics numbers come out. The market is fairly positive this morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, October 12, 2023

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