Author: admin

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning and thanks for joining me for breakfast. In the pre market this morning, ahead of the employment numbers coming out at 8:30, stock index futures are slightly above fair value so far. It looks like people are willing to wait for those numbers to come out before deciding what to do next. Now, the other day we got a buy signal in the VIX and when fear is rising, that is a dangerous sign for the market and that is exactly what happened. So the VIX popped yesterday.

Things would change on Friday if the VIX were to come down and close below 13.34. Now, coming into yesterday’s action, we already had the Dow on a sell signal. Huge down day yesterday for the Dow. The Nasdaq 100 was on a sell signal. We also had the Russell 2000 on a sell signal.

What wasn’t on a sell signal? Well, the S&P 500 was still holding up. It is now back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Now, with energy stocks and gold stocks performing the way they have over the past month, the TSX is still holding up fairly well. It came down yesterday just a little over a third of a percent and sitting right on the edge of a daily sell signal, but certainly holding up better than the US markets right now because of the commodity situation.

Now the Fed is still focused on fighting inflation and I don’t think they’re too concerned about coco, which has been in the news a lot lately. And you can see why coffee has been up recently. I don’t think the Fed is concerned about coffee. They are more concerned about copper. They’re more concerned about lumber.

They’re certainly more concerned about crude oil. Now, if you’ve been watching our videos for a while, you know, 8750 is our next target for crude oil and we’re up at that level now and looking to see if we can break through it or not. If you were with us yesterday, we were looking at the GLD having trouble at 212.50. It was the top of our projected trading range. The trading range has now been expanded.

And if we continue higher from here, then 218.75 is our next target to the upside. Next up, let’s take a look at some weekly charts. And these are handmade. They’re not on the website. But I like to take a look and see what’s happened so far this week and if it’s going to affect long term investors at all.

And certainly we can see options. Traders are spooked. The VIX is back on a weekly buy signal as of Thursday’s close. And Friday’s close is the most important. Thursday really doesn’t mean much.

I’m just taking a look to see what could possibly happen depending on how Friday goes. Looking at the S&P 500, we’re down a little over 2% on the week. We are trading below the previous week’s low right now. If we were to end here today, that certainly would be a very bearish bar for the S&P 500, but certainly not a sell signal. And we’re still trading and closing above the upper channel line.

Now the Nasdaq has been struggling over the past few weeks and here we are trading back in the channel as of Thursday’s close. Again, it’s Friday’s close that we really care about. I’m just trying to get an indication of, you know, has any major damage been done this week? And we can see that damage has been done. We are trading and closing below the previous week’s low.

That is also true for the Russell 2000, which is down three and a third percent on the week so far. And then looking at semiconductors now. Semiconductors peaked five weeks ago and we haven’t been back up to retest that. So that could be a bearish sign for semiconductors. And right now we’re having an outside reversal week for the semis.

And again, we’re still on a buy signal here, no change. And then looking at the TSX, the TSX made a new high this week and we’ve pulled back a little over half a percent and still trading and closing above the previous week’s low. So the TSX looking much more bullish than the other major indices. Now what’s helping out the TSX of course, is the fact that crude oil has been on a weekly buy signal for the last eleven weeks and gold has been on a weekly buy signal for the last six weeks. And that’s helping the TSX.

Now certainly energy stocks can help the US market. The S&P 500, they don’t really help the Dow much or the Nasdaq. And then gold stocks certainly don’t help any of the major us indices. With only one gold stock in the S&P 500 now, everything could change at 8:30 this morning with non farm payrolls coming out and I think the consensus is 200,000. We’ll have to see how the market reacts to whatever the number is.

Yesterday we saw the marijuana stocks lead, the markets lowered. Now when I say that, it’s kind of in jest. The marijuana sector is very small, doesn’t affect the overall stock market at all. It is an area that I know a lot of our subscribers watch closely, but the rest of the world isn’t really watching the marijuana sector. But in our world, it was the biggest loser.

Now, the marijuana sector is very volatile compared to the rest of the market. So it often shows up as the best performer and the worst performer and really isn’t moving the needle that much for the rest of the market. Now, what is moving the rest of the market? Well, semiconductors were the second biggest loser yesterday, followed by biotechs, which have been on a sell signal for a month now. Then, looking at the individual sectors on the TSX 60, it was George Weston was the biggest loser yesterday.

On the TSX, it was Nova Gold. Still on a buy signal that would change on Friday with a close below $3.83. Then we’ve got Salesforce on the Dow was the biggest loser yesterday. On the Nasdaq 100, it was Advanced Micro Devices, which has been on a cell signal for almost a month now. And then on the S&P 500, it was Lamb Weston fell out of the sky.

Obviously an individual stock situation. This is a stock I’ve never seen, I’ve never looked at once in my life. Here it is showing up on the worst performer list from Thursday’s trading action. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Yesterday was a terrible day for the market.

What we’re seeing in the pre market this morning is a little sign of hope, but certainly nothing that will reverse yesterday’s action. And we’ll have to see how the market reacts to the employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. Thank you very much for your time and attention and support. Have a great day. Have a great weekend.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, April 5, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading higher. So, so far, it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Thursday morning. We do have employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.

That could certainly change the market’s direction. Now we’re looking at a couple of stressors in the market this week, in the bond market and in the options market. The stock market has seen a little pullback, but no major changes, certainly nothing that’s going to show up on the weekly charts. Yesterday was an inside day for the VIX. It’s still on a buy signal that’s not supportive for higher stock prices.

And what you’re seeing is some of the major indices are holding up fairly well. We’re seeing weakness in other areas of the market that could continue to push the rest of the market down. We’ll just have to wait and see. Now, we’re looking at the VIX here on Thursday. We’re looking for a close below 13.25 to give us a new sell signal that would be supportive for higher stock prices.

So far, even though the VIX has popped over the past couple of days, we’re still looking at three blue dots here. We still haven’t got all the way to four dots just yet. So still waiting for that. The Dow is still on a sell signal. The S&P 500 ETF is still on a buy signal.

That would change on Thursday with a close below $518.22. The Nasdaq 100 still on a sell signal. No change there. Now, energy stocks, the commodity sector is still holding the market up and we’ve got the energy ETF making a new high on Wednesday. Big update yesterday for the silver miners, and we’ll look at silver in a minute.

And copper miners did very well. Gold stocks were up across the board on Wednesday. So it’s really, the commodities are the, the big winners this week. But unfortunately, outside of energy, the rest of the stocks really don’t affect the US market that much. Next up, let’s take a look at the world of commodities.

And starting with the USO, crude oil made a new high on Wednesday. We had a new high for gasoline, natural gas still on a buy signal here. Very small pullback on Wednesday. Then looking at the GLD, we closed at 212.74 yesterday. The top of our projected trading range on both the daily and weekly charts is 212.50.

So we’re right up there at the top of the range. There’s certainly no reason why we can’t continue higher from here. It’s just interesting when we get up to the top of those ranges to see how many times we actually stop and turn around. Then, looking at palladium, we’re back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close, joining platinum already on a buy signal. And silver, which was underperforming gold for quite a while, has caught up very quickly this week.

Up another four, nearly 4% on Wednesday. Now, looking at the bond market, bonds are on sell signals right now. That of course can put upward pressure on bond yields. We had a new low yesterday for the TLT emerging market. Bonds came back nicely yesterday.

It’s the junk bonds that everybody keeps an eye on. Of course, when the junk bonds are on a sell signal, that’s considered risk off. And that of course could be a negative omen for the stock market going forward. We’ll just have to keep an eye on that. So we know that options traders in Chicago are spooked.

We also know that bond traders in Chicago are also spooked at the moment. And whether that leads to stock market investors getting spooked, only time will tell. Next up, let’s take a look at what worked and what didn’t work. Yesterday it was communication services was the big winner, followed by energy, materials and industrials. There’s the communication services ETF making a new high for this move on the back of Paramount, up nearly 15% on the day.

So that stock’s been on a buy signal for the past month. Then looking at the energy sector, we looked at the major energy ETF earlier. This is small caps, up over 2% on the day. The big winner in the energy sector on Wednesday was marathon oil, up nearly 2.5%. Then looking at materials, the big winner there was Freeport and it was up a little over 2.5% on the day.

Then looking at the industrial sector, we’ve been trading in the channel for the past couple of days off the recent highs. Two stocks in this sector that have had an interesting week. UPS got the contract to support the US postal system, while FedEx lost that part of the contract. Both stocks moving in opposite directions. No new buy signal just yet for UPS, looking for a close on Thursday above $152.98.

And for FedEx, we’re looking for a sell signal with a close below $273.89 on Thursday. Then looking at consumer discretionary, it was up on the day, but it is on a sell signal right now. Consumer staples was down yesterday, over 1%. The big loser in that sector. And from a man’s point of view, I don’t think makeup is a consumer staple.

Obviously, if I was a woman, I might feel differently about that. But Estee Lauder is a consumer staple stock, and it was down hard yesterday. Still looking for a close on Thursday, below $145.36. Notice the high here. Then we had a lower high, and now we’re putting in another lower high.

That’s a bearish sign for this stock. Now we’re almost done here. We’ve got meta back on a short term buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, Meta has been basically trading sideways for a while now. We got into this range back at the start of February and have made a high back at the start of March, and then a lower high in the middle of March.

And now we’re looking to see what’s going to happen next. You can see we’re projecting up to 562.50 at the moment. When you get into the situation where a stock is basically trading sideways, it means investors are waiting for some catalyst. They’re waiting for news. They’re waiting for something to happen.

You want to give the stock a little more breathing room, and you can switch over from the right side chart to the Midterm chart and use that and take a more conservative view of the stock. As you can see, momentum is drifting off here, and that is certainly true up here. We haven’t moved anywhere. We still have a little room to go before we see a sell signal for meta on the midterm chart. When we look at the Panic Zone chart, you are up at the top of the Panic Zones, which means any new buy signal up here is a high risk buy signal.

The majority of people and institutions that want to own this stock already own it, and they’re not really looking for something to cause them to jump in. Who’s usually going to jump in at this point is the public, and they’re not very good at timing the market. And they’re usually, they usually show up when the party is about to end. Now, if we look down, you can see that there’s a nice open gap there. The top of that gap and the bottom of that gap could potentially act as targets when the stock turns down.

You can see that the bottom of that open gap matches up with the bottom of our Panic Zone projection. And so at some point in the next few months, we may trade all the way down towards $400. That certainly has not started on Thursday morning. And speaking of signals, we’ve got Nvidia back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close again. You know, it’s a very tight close.

There’s no major sell off here. In fact, we didn’t even take out the bottom of the previous day’s low, which traded down below the lower channel. I did not close there. So if you’re still long, Nvidia, you might want to wait for the next close below the lower channel line before taking the sell signal. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

So far, stock index futures are above fair value. We do have employment numbers coming out at 830. That could certainly help change the direction of the market. Have a great day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, April 4, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, there is a disturbance in the force. The VIX gave us a buy signal yesterday that is negative for stocks. Things would change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close below 13.15.

Now, in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are below fair value, not by much. Commodities, on the other hand, are moving higher, with gold making a new high on Wednesday morning. Now the Dow is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. The S&P 500 ETF is still on a buy signal. That would change on Wednesday with a close below $518.08.

Then, looking at the Nasdaq 100, we are back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. We’ve got the Russell 2000 back on a sell signal. We’ve got microcap stocks back on a sell signal. Now, what worked on Tuesday? Well, it was the energy sector up over 1%, small gains in utilities and communication services, and the rest of the market traded lower.

Now there’s the energy sector making a new high for this move. We also had gold stocks up yesterday. They were up 1.28%. And silver stocks are playing a catch up. They’re up nearly 3% on the day.

So moving up towards the previous highs from late to December. Now, looking at the canadian market, looking at the TSX, still on a buy signal here. Small pullback yesterday. TSX 60 trading in the channel. So the possibility of a sell signal on Wednesday.

Then looking at mid caps, a small pullback, a new high for small caps. And we saw the venture exchange continue to move higher on Tuesday. Now, what worked? Well, just like in the US, it was the energy sector followed by materials. And of course materials includes gold stocks.

Everything else was lower on the day. And there’s the energy sector making a new high on Tuesday. We had materials making a new high. That’s on the back of the gold sector continuing to move up. What didn’t work?

Well, communications services was the big loser on the day. And you can see Roger is making a new low for 2024. Then infotech pulled back slightly. Hut 8 was the big loser on the day, trading back in the channel, so it closed below $12.09 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. We’ve got industrials back on a sell signal.

Bombardier is also back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Then looking at the financials, we’re back on a sell signal there, looking at some of the banks. Bank of Nova Scotia back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close, National Bank, we’re looking for a close below $112.51 and we closed at $112.48. And so if you haven’t already locked in some profits, today would be a good day to do so. Now the TD bank, we were concerned about it trying to get over its 200 day moving average and it rolled over on Tuesday and is back on a sell signal.

Let’s finish off today’s presentation, taking a look at some of the TSX most actives, and the most actively traded stock. Yesterday was TC Energy filling the open gap and then pulling back. So no change in trend there. We’re back on a sell signal for Athabasca, new high for Baytex and a lot of energy stocks made new highs on Tuesday. Then we’re looking at CIBC and we’re looking for a close below $67.52.

We closed at $67.63 on Tuesday. Canopy Growth closed higher on the day, still closing and trading above the upper channel line. Then we’ve got b two gold still struggling here, closing higher on the day. No joy for BCE making a new low for 2024. Then we’ve got BlackBerry back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close.

Canadian Natural Resources making a new high on Tuesday and Crescent Point also making a new high on Tuesday. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far the overall stock market looks like it wants to sell off. At the same time, we’ve got gold and crude oil trading up in the premarket. Energy inventories come out later this morning that could affect energy prices.

We’ll just have to wait and see. But so far it’s looking pretty bullish for the commodity sector. Of course, if you haven’t locked in some profits along the way, today would be a good day to do so. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning and at that time we’ll take a closer look at the US stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, we’ve got stock index futures trading lower while commodities are trading higher, so we may see a divergence in the North American markets on Tuesday. Yesterday, we saw the VIX spike higher, did not close above the upper channel line, but certainly traded through it. There is a little bit of the market that’s spoofed at the moment. We’ll get to that in a minute. We’re looking for a close for the VIX above 13.83 on Tuesday to give us a new buy signal. And of course, that would be negative for stocks if we see that the options traders in Chicago are spooked. Now, we’ve got the TSX moving up yesterday. It may move up again today with both crude oil and gold trading higher in the pre-market. We did see a pullback in the Dow yesterday, still at the upper channel line. We’ve got the S&P 500 closing slightly lower on Monday, and we’ve got the Nasdaq closing slightly higher on Monday. So no major changes in the North American indices. Now, looking at the TSX, what worked on Monday?

Well, we’ve got materials and energy stocks were the big winners, and that had a lot to do with the price of gold continuing to move higher. Silver, not tracking gold right now. That could change over the next few days. Gold could come down to meet silver. Silver could continue to rise to chase gold higher. We’ll just have to wait and see. Crude Oil made a new high yesterday. It looks like it wants to get up to 87.50. Natural gas was up nicely on Monday. Not enough to give us a buy signal, but we’re sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal for natural gas. Now, some danger signs. We’ve got gold making new highs. Is that a safety trade? Are people trying to get to hide ahead of something? We’ve got the US dollar index moving up, breaking out to a new high. We’ve got the Euro coming down to retest the previous low. Big money is moving around right now. One of the biggest things that happened on Monday was that bonds rolled over and closed down sharply yesterday. Looking at the 10-year note, we’ve got rates moving back up to the recent highs and could break out.

To new highs for 2024. So that might not be a good sign. So you’ve got gold, you’ve got currencies, you’ve got the interest rates all moving against the stock market. Now, the stock market hasn’t really noticed yet. Is that going to happen soon? We’ll just have to wait and see. Now, looking at the US market, it was communication services, then energy. Gold stocks really don’t show up in this list at all. There’s only one gold stock in the S&P 500, so it’s really not going to show up. But you will notice that utilities were down yesterday, real estate was down, and those are interest rate sensitive sectors of the market. Looking at communication services, we had Alphabets break out to a new high on Monday, and that was the big winner. Meta, which is on a sell signal right now, moved up yesterday, not enough to change things. We’ve also got Netflix, was another big winner in communication services. Again, on a sell signal, moving up, not enough to change things. Then looking at the New York most actives from Monday’s trading action, Tesla traded down the lower channel line yesterday, did not close below it.

So looking for a close below $171.56 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. For Advanced Micro Devices, we traded up to the upper channel line, did not close above it. Still looking for a close above $186.46 on Tuesday. Amc, new low for that stock. It’s been on a sell signal for a month now. Then NVIDIA trading in the channel once again. In the channel is neutral. We’re still on a buy signal here. Things would change on Tuesday with a close below $894.03. Then no joy for Apple, still on a sell signal, still closing closing below the lower channel line. Looking at some of the TSX most actives, starting with Manulife. Manulife made a new high on Thursday, pulled back on Monday. It’s still on a buy signal here. Finally, breaking away from the price point it was stuck on for a There are going to be a week’s there. Looking for a close below $32.76 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. TC Energy moving up into the channel once again. It’s up in the pre-market this morning in New York. It closed up 21 cents yesterday. It was up 19 cents again.

In the pre-market this morning in US dollars, looking for a close above $54.81 on Tuesday. Then looking at Canopy Growth that was down hard yesterday. It had put in a bearish reversal signal on Thursday, and we saw a fall through to the downside on Monday. So that is probably the end of this move for Canopy Growth. The TD Bank, it’s on a buy signal right now from Wednesday’s close, pulled back on Thursday. It was up by just a penny on Monday. Now, this looks bullish. We’ve got a higher low and a higher high. But what’s happened right now is we’ve run back up to the 200-day moving average. Back in January, we ran up to it and pulled back. So it’s going to take a lot of effort to get it up over the 200-day moving average. And being up a penny on Monday probably isn’t a good sign. Then looking at B2 Gold, second day of a buy signal here. Of course, not running with the rest of the gold pack at the moment. Then looking at Suncor, new high for Suncor on Monday. Now, several people have asked me about adding Trump Media to the database.

I really don’t want to. It’s a worthless stock. It’s a meme stock that’s not going anywhere. It’s really not something I would want to add. Space is limited, time is limited, and I’d rather add stocks of higher quality that have a potentially potential future, which this stock does not. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time, you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning, and at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. I hope you had a wonderful long weekend and you’re ready to get back to watching the markets. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures and gold are trading above fair value while we’re seeing a small pullback in crude oil on Monday morning. Let’s start off today’s presentation taking a look at a weekly chart of the VIX, which is still on a weekly sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. We had an inside week last week, and so we’re going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.23 this coming Friday. Now, if you haven’t been with us for very long, we watch the VIX on a daily and weekly basis. Now, the last time we were on a weekly buy signal was back in the fall. And of course, once we’re on a weekly buy signal, we’re long term defensive or long term bearish on the market. We went through six weeks of fear And once it ended with a weekly sell signal, we’ve been on a weekly sell signal ever since.

So we’ve had 21 weeks fear free. And of course, when the market is fear free, we expect it to move up. And of course, when there is fear in the market and the VIX is rising on a weekly basis, we expect the market to head down. So that’s exactly what happened. So if you’re a long term investor, you want to watch the VIX on a weekly basis. If you’re a short term investor or short term trader, then you want to watch the VIX on a daily basis. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’ve got the VIX still on a daily sell signal. That is supportive for higher stock prices. That could change on Monday if the VIX were to close above 13.89. Now, notice the upper channel line is pointing down. So if we come back here tomorrow and the VIX did not close above 1389, that upper channel line will continue to trail lower. Now, looking at the seasonality chart for the VIX, typically we see a nice big up move in the VIX in the month of March, and then a move down into the month of April. We didn’t have that big up move this year, and there’s no guarantee that we’re going to have it.

Some people are looking for a time shift, looking to see what should have happened in March, may happen in April, but there’s certainly no sign of that starting to happen coming to the first trading day of the month of April. Now, year to date on the S&P 500 is up a little over 10% year to date. The big winner on the S&P 500 has been Super Micro up over 255 %. On the Nasdaq 100, it’s been NVIDIA up over 82 %. On the Dow, it’s been Disney up over 35 %. On the TSX composite, Celestica is up over 56 %. On the TSX 60, it’s First Quantum. I know it’s hard to make this out, but it is up over 34 % since the year started. It is on a weekly buy signal, and It’s going to stay on a weekly buy signal as long as it doesn’t close below $12.32 this coming Friday. Now, at the start of the year, we talked about a trading strategy using leveraged ETFs. That gives us the opportunity to make money, whether the market is going up or going down. Now, a lot of people have some negative things to say about these ETFs as long term investing tools, and they should never be considered long term investing tools.

For those people who are willing to buy and hold, leveraged ETFs are not for you. If you’re willing to buy and hold them through the signals, then they make the perfect tool for long term investors. If we look at the baseline of the S&P 500, it’s up a little over 10 % year to date. So the 3X ETFs should be up approximately three times that amount, and it is currently up over 28 % year to date. And then if we look at a 2X on the TSX, you can see that the 2X is up nearly twice the baseline. So they don’t exactly match over the long term, but they get pretty close. And of course, we will be willing to sell these on a weekly sell signal and buy the bear ETF when that time comes. It is certainly not coming on Monday morning. When we look at the Nasdaq 100, it is up over 8% year to date. The 3X is up over 21%, and the 2X trading in Toronto is up over 14% year to date. So not performing as well, but still getting the majority of the expected move, which is really what you care about.

Now, looking at the TSX-60, year to date, it is up just under five and a half %. Anything close to 11 % would be pretty good. And looking at the Horizons Beta Pro Bull ETF for the TSX-60, we’re up just under 11 % year to date. And so that is pretty good. Now, when we’re looking at diversity If you’re a US investor, of course, if you’re playing the S&P 500, you’re dealing with a lot of global companies. For the Nasdaq 100, you get exposure to tech and biotech, and then anything small cap is really local. If you’re a Canadian investor, we’ve got the TSX-60 is really our local investment. Then the S&P 500 is global, and the Nasdaq 100 gives us tech and biotech exposure. Of course, there are other ETFs that we can on track. In Canada, we don’t have a lot of diversity. We’ve got the commodity sector with energy and gold. In the US, we’ve got many more choices. We’ve got small cap, for example, if you want to go local. Then we’ve got biotech. We’ve got semiconductors. We’ve got the FANG stocks. You can get a 3X ETF for the FANG stocks.

Then we’ve got technology itself. So there are opportunities in sectors outside of the three major stock market indices that we follow on a daily basis. Now, each one of these ETFs, of course, have a corresponding bear ETF. Typically, we don’t expect to be in the bear ETF that long, but typically, stocks fall three times faster than they rise, so it’s usually a sharp move to the downside as opposed to the long and steady move that stocks usually make when they’re in a bull market. We don’t expect to be in the bear ETF for that long. Last fall, that was certainly the case. You get a couple of weeks of a sharp down move, and then the market starts to turn around, so you want to lock in profits quickly. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, taking a look at some daily charts. The indexes were fairly quiet on Thursday, new closing high for the TSX-60. For the Dow, had a very quiet day, very quiet day for the S&P 500, very small pullback, and a small pullback for the Nasdaq 100, having an inside day. So certainly no changes in trend for the major indices on Friday.

On Thursday, we were talking about Meta, which generated a very quiet sell signal on Wednesday. We did see fall through to the downside on Thursday. So Meta is certainly on a sell signal right now. Shopify in New York and Toronto ended Thursday on sell signals. Again, very light sell signal. You may want to wait for the next close below the lower channel line before executing that sell signal. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Everything’s looking pretty bullish, whether you’re looking at weekly charts or daily charts, so no reason to be overly concerned about anything on Monday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, April 1, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning, the last trading day of the month and the quarter. Of course, the markets are going to be closed tomorrow for the Easter holiday. So far in the pre market this morning, things are very quiet. Stock index, futures trading right around fair value. Commodities are higher with both crude oil and gold up this morning.

We do have a whole bunch of economic numbers coming out this morning that could certainly change the direction of the market, but not expecting a lot of downward pressure on Thursday. Let’s start off reviewing some weekly charts just to see how the week is going so far. And I just ran these off on my own computer this morning for the VIX. We’re down on the week and you can see the uptrend staff celebrating that. It’s been 21 weeks that we’ve been fear free.

And during those 21 weeks, of course, the market has been able to move higher. And as we always say, if the VIX is on a sell signal, we assume the market wants to move higher. And the Dow so far is having an inside week. It’s up a little under three quarters of a percent. Inside week for the S&P 500, up a little over a quarter of a percent, not so much.

For the Nasdaq, it’s down just a third of a percentage. It’s also having an inside week. Now on the Nasdaq, 47 of the 101 stocks are currently down for the last five trading days. There’s the TSX having an inside week up over half a percent. And the commodities are still helping hold the TSX up.

Now, the best performing sector of the market this week is the marijuana sector, of course, which is a very tiny sector. It’s one we like to follow. A lot of our subscribers are in the marijuana world and we can see that the index itself was up just under 5% on the week. But then we’ve got Canopy Growth up over 23% on the week. And so second week of a buy signal for canopy growth.

That’s what it looks like on a daily chart. And of course, these stocks have been crushed over the past couple of years. But there may be light at the end of the tunnel if the US and Germany start to relax their cannabis laws. And that’s what people are hoping for. And of course, by the rumor sell, the news is still the order of the day.

So hopefully you’ve locked in some profits so far and you’ve got a partial position left and you’re going to ride it out and see just how high this sector can go. Now, looking at the Magnificent Eight, they’re not performing that well this week. And looking at a daily chart of Alphabet, we’ve got up and filled the open gap there and have struggled to move higher ever since. That may be the top for Alphabet, but the high from back in January is just above where we are now. So traders might want to go up and retest that high.

Still no reason to sell Alphabet. Amazon still on a buy signal here. Pretty sloppy trading over the past couple of weeks. But you see we made a high and a higher high and then we made a low here and we made a higher low there. So that’s still a bullish flaw for Amazon.

We’re still on a buy signal here. Still waiting for Apple. Apple’s come around since that big legal news last week. We’re looking for a close on Friday above $174.56. Now Meta back on a sell signal just by a penny.

Yesterday we were looking for a close below $493.87 and we closed at $493.86. So, you know, typically if something like that happens, it’s a very light sell signal. You can always wait for the next close below the lower channel line. There are a couple of bearish signs here. It looks like a couple of days ago we put in a lower high, so that’s bearish.

We still have some room on the midterm chart to go. You may want to hold out and see if we get a sell signal. On the midterm chart you can see momentum has been diminishing over the past few weeks and that’s a bearish sign. And then the pros are starting to give up control for meta. Of course they’re not rushing out the door here, but they are locking in some profits and certainly not trying to push the price of the stock up any longer.

So, you know, you can always wait one more day and see if meta closes below the lower channel line once again on Thursday. Then looking at Microsoft traded down to the lower channel line yesterday looking for a close below $418.47 on Thursday. Then looking at Nvidia, we traded down to the lower channel line on Wednesday looking for a close below $890.26. The assumption is that we’re going to go up and test $1,000. Now.

Three days ago we put in a lower high and then we’ve pulled back the last couple of days. Maybe that run is over. Only time will tell. But yeah, lower high is a bearish sign for this stock. Now Shopify traded down the lower channel line in New York on Wednesday, looking for a close below $77.70 on Thursday for Shopify in Toronto.

We’re looking for a close below $104.68 on Thursday. And then looking at Tesla inside day yesterday closed slightly higher. Looking for close on Thursday below $170.52 to give us a new daily sell signal. Now, if we go back in time, we had an open gap here that was never filled. We got up to resistance and stop.

The open gap here has not been filled yet. If we hit our next price target of $187.50, that would certainly fill it. But you can see we’re in no rush to fill that gap at the present time. Let’s finish off just with a quick recap of what worked in March. On the TSX 60, Kinross was up over 21%. On the TSX composite.

New Gold was up nearly 50% for the last 30 days. And then we’ve got on the DOW it was 3M, up over 13% for the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 it was Micron, up nearly 30% for the month. And then on the S&P 500 after Micron it was Dexcon, up over over 20% for the month. And of course they monitor glucose.

And Dexcon investors must be happy because who makes glucose? Well, Krispy Kreme does. And it popped sharply over the past couple of days on that announcement that they’re partnering with McDonald’s. What hasn’t worked out so well since that announcement? Well, the makers of Ozempic have been pulling back over the past couple of days, so the top might be in for Ozempic.

We’ll just have to wait and see if investors continue to sell the stock. Okay, folks, that is all from me for Thursday morning. And that’s all for me for this week. Have a great and safe long weekend. And next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

So far, the market looks like it’s going to be fairly quiet. But we do have a whole bunch of economic numbers coming out before the market opens and that could certainly change the overall tone and direction of the market on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, March 28, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and gold are trading higher. So after down three days in a row, we are getting back on our feet, heading into a long weekend, heading into month end and quarter end. So we may see some quarter end window dressing this week and this week.

I mean Wednesday and Thursday. Friday is when the big economic numbers come out for the week. But the market will be closed on Friday for the holiday. Now, we saw major indices down three days in a row. The Dow, we’ve got the S&P 500 trading lower.

We’ve got the Nasdaq trading lower. We’ve got the TSX 60 trading lower. None generated sell signals so far and they all look like they’re going to open higher on Thursday morning. Now, the VIX was up slightly yesterday, still trading below the lower channel line, looking for a close on Wednesday above 14.20. And it certainly doesn’t look like we’re going to see that based on what’s going on in the pre market this morning.

Well, we always talk about the fact that it isn’t the news, it’s how the market reacts to the news. And you can see that yesterday Krispy Kreme was up nearly 40% on the news that it’s in a new partnership with McDonald’s. So Krispy Kreme on its third day of a buy signal. How did McDonald’s investors react? Well, the stock actually closed the day unchanged.

So they were totally unfazed, uninterested in the announcement that Krispy Kreme investors were certainly excited about. Now, looking at the S&P 500 yesterday, what worked? Well, it was healthcare, financials and consumer staples. What didn’t work? Well, it was utilities, but not by much.

Yesterday was a fairly quiet day. So healthcare still on a sell signal. No change for financials and no change for consumer staples trading down to the lower channel line for the last two days and utilities. If it was the big loser yesterday, you don’t really notice it. It traded down to the lower channel line, still on a buy signal coming into Wednesday.

Now, yesterday morning we looked at the New York most actives and really there’s only one trend change from yesterday’s trading action. So Lucid, pulled back yesterday, looking for a close on Wednesday above $2.96. Tesla is back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. So we can be buyers at the open on Wednesday morning. And no change for advanced micro devices.

No change for Marathon Digital looking for a close on Wednesday below $19.76 to give us a new sell signal. Nio barely moved yesterday. Then we’ve got micron making a new high for this move on Tuesday. Nvidia pulled back yesterday, still trading above the upper channel line. No worries there.

Apple inside day yesterday closing slightly lower on the day. Then we’ve got Tilray making a new high for this move. Now, Tilray started out with a buy signal back on the 15th. You came in on the next day, which was the 18th. You bought at the open at 1.81.

There were the price targets at the time. You could have locked in profits at any of those levels. And we did eventually trade up to 234. We’ve stopped there for the last three days. We have been able to trade higher, but not close higher.

If we move up from here, 2.54 is our next mathematical target, and that’s as high as we got back in December. Then, looking at the TSX, the winners were healthcare, consumer discretionary, and then infotech. And the loser on the day was energy, down less than 1%. Now, healthcare is a very small sector of the canadian market, and of course it’s being pushed higher by one marijuana stock right now, consumer discretionary. Still on a sell signal.

No change there. No change for infotech. We’re still on a buy signal here. The elephant in the room, of course, is Shopify. Still on a buy signal.

Now, last week we were able to run up and tag the 112.50 level. So if you add an order in to take partial profits at that level, it got filled. So congratulations. Above that level, we’ve got a big open gap that could act as a price magnet and a potential area of resistance. But 125 is our next mathematical target if we start trading above 112.50.

Now, energy stocks pulled back but ever so slightly yesterday, less than 1%. So no concern there. Now, looking at the TSX most active list that we looked at yesterday, small pullback for Suncor Canopy growth, the marijuana sector, of course, having big up moves recently. And we started off with targets of 6.25, 7.81, 9.38, and 9.38 would have taken us up to the top of that open gap, and 10.94, the high from early December. And we have blasted all our, all the way up to 10.94 so far that is acting as resistance.

If we can start closing above it, then 12.50 and 14.06 come into play. Then looking at TC Energy, small pullback there. Small pullback for canadian natural resources. Manulife. We talked about Manulife being stuck at the 32.81 level.

Well, we closed at 32.83 on Tuesday. TD bank still swimming in the channel. Looking for a close above $81.64 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. No joy for bit farms. Power still on a sell signal.

No change there. Holding. Monday’s low. Then we’ve got Cenovus making a new high for this move on Tuesday. No joy for Telus making a new closing low.

Having an inside day on Tuesday. B2Gold still swimming sideways here. Looking for a close above 3.52. Remember, if you’re following this stock, you’re chasing really a broken stock at the moment. Most gold stocks look something like Kinross, which was unchanged on Tuesday.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. Commodities are mixed with gold higher, while crude oil is slightly lower on Tuesday morning. Now, we do have some economic numbers coming out this morning at 8:30 and then at 10:00 we’ve got consumer confidence and those numbers could change the overall direct of the market.

Now, yesterday the TSX had a small pullback, we had a small pullback in the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. No damage done so far. The VIX was up slightly on the day it traded up into the channel before reversing on Tuesday. We’re looking for a close above 14.36 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX. Now, Bitcoin came back on Monday, it’s continuing to move higher on Tuesday.

Gold was up yesterday, had an inside day. It is up another $20 in the pre market this morning. So that could bring money back into the mining sector. Looking at what worked yesterday, well, it was energy stocks on the TSX in New York making new highs for this move. Moving on.

Looking at the TSX, most actives, of course, it’s filled with energy stocks. There’s Suncor making a new high on Monday. Canopy Growth, big reversal, but an inside day for Canopy Growth. So we had some reversals in the cannabis sector yesterday. You can see we traded up towards the highs from back in December and then have started to pull back.

Looking at TC Energy, we’re back on a buy signal here for the second day. Then canadian natural resources making a new high again. These energy stocks are all up at the top of the panic zones. The last low risk opportunity was down here when we were at the bottom of the Panic Zones and a Pressure Zone was forming and then we started to move up. That was your low risk opportunity.

Any opportunities that are coming up here, any new buy signals that show up, of course are high risk opportunities. Take you look at Manulife. We’ve been struggling for a while around the 32.81 level and haven’t been able to really break away from it. So the market is apparently stuck on that number. Of course, if we can move higher than 34.38 would be our next target to the upside, then look at the TD Bank.

We’re still struggling here. Looking for a close on Tuesday above 81.64. Bitfarms is trading in the channel right now. Looking for a close on Tuesday above $3.34. Then we’ve got Power Corp.

And it’s an ugly chart. Looks like investors don’t want to pay more than $40 for this stock and it has come back down. It’s back on a sell signal. Then looking at Cenovus. New high for Cenovus on Monday.

Then looking at one of the winners in the banking sector. Bank of Nova Scotia small pullback, two cent yesterday. So certainly no change in trend. The first telecom stock that shows up on the most active list is Telus, making a new low on Monday, then looking at the first gold stock that shows up on the most active list. B2Gold we would need to see a close above $3.53 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal.

Certainly B2Gold has been out of favor. Most gold stocks look something like this at the moment. Some of them gave sell signals last week and some of them are still holding up like Kinross. Then moving on to Wall street. And certainly no changes in trends in any of these stocks.

Lucid had a big update yesterday but ended the day closing just below the upper channel line. So any higher close on Tuesday would give us a buy signal for Lucid. For Tesla, we’re looking for a close above $175.99 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. No joy for Advanced Micro Devices on Monday. Making a new low for this move. Then we’ve got Marathon Digital still on a buy signal here but struggling.

Looking for a close below $19.68 on Tuesday to give us a new daily sell signal. No joy for NIO on Monday. Then we’ve got Micron making a new high on Monday after gapping higher last week. Then we’re looking at Nvidia. New closing high for Nvidia on Monday.

Then Apple. No joy there. Still on a sell signal and looking to see if we can hold those march lows. Then looking at Tilray, the first Canadian company that comes up on the most active list. We get the reversal there yesterday and still on a buy signal.

No change in trend. You’ve had several opportunities to lock in some profits on the way up, so hopefully you took advantage of that. Then looking at Soundhound, still on a sell signal. No change there. No change for Rivian.

Looking for a close on Tuesday above $11.65 to give us a new daily buy signal. Intel still struggling here even with all that positive news last week, nobody wants to own intel at the moment. Then the next canadian company to show up on the list is Bitfarms. Looking for a close above $2.47 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal. The first bank on the most active list is bank of America.

Very small pullback on Monday, no change in trend. First energy related stock on the most active list was Transocean, making a new high for this move, heading up towards those highs from back in December. And then the best performer on the dow yesterday was Walt Disney. And Disney got a buy signal back here, and so far we have not had a sell signal. And you’ve had lots of opportunities to lock in some profits along the way.

The best performer on the SP 500. And our last stock this morning is Super Micro, traded right up to the upper channel line. So really any higher close on Tuesday would give us a new buy signal for super micro. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like the market wants to do a little buying on Tuesday morning.

Remember, we’re coming into a long weekend. We’re coming into the end of the month. Both of those usually have a bullish bias to it. So unless we get some horrible economic numbers this week, I’m really not expecting to see a lot of downward pressure on the overall market. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Hello everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. com with this weekend’s look at Canadian Stock Market Trends. Now, we’re going to be taking a big picture look at the Canadian Stock Market, and we’re going to be using weekly charts. There’s going to be a couple of daily charts, but for the most part, this presentation is going to be full of weekly charts. Now, if you’re a long term investor, you should probably ignore what happens from Monday to Friday and look for bigger trend changes to happen before you start moving your money in and out of the market. Now, the first thing I always look at when I’m looking at the market is I want to filter out all the news, economic reports, earnings reports, and I want to see how options traders feel about the market. Now, the majority of options that are traded at the options exchanges in Chicago are used for hedging purposes. That means portfolio protection. When options traders get nervous about the market, they bid up the price of options, and that It tells us when there’s fear in the market and there’s no fear. If you were with us last fall, we went through six weeks of fear leading into the October lows, which gave us eventually the year-end rally.

Looking at a weekly as part of the VIX, I want to remain long term bullish on the market unless the VIX were to close above 15.36 this coming Friday. Now, if you’re a short term trader coming into Monday’s trading action, you can see that the VIX is on sell signal right now. That is supportive for higher stock prices. And so on Monday, we would remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 14.54 on Monday. Now, The upper channel line is crawling down. So if that doesn’t happen on Monday, that number is going to continue to decrease throughout the week until at some point in the future, the VIX gets back on a buy signal, which, of course, would be short term bearish for the market. Now, once we’ve checked the fear index or the VIX, we can move on to the major US stock market indices and see how they finish the week. And it was a pretty bullish week for the S&P 500, up a little over two and a quarter %, while the Nasdaq was up nearly 3% on the week for a new closing high.

Things are looking pretty bullish for the US market. Now, you may not have seen these charts. I’ve shown them several times over the past couple of months, but these are seasonality charts from equity clock. You can see what we were expecting to happen was a peak in February for the S&P 500, and then some selling into March, and then April should be a fairly bullish month. That’s also true for the Nasdaq. It’s also true for the TSX. And of course, the opposite is true for the VIX. We were expecting a huge move up in the VIX. We did have that in March of last year, but so far it hasn’t happened. Now, seasonality Seasonality charts, of course, are an average of what has happened over time. Some seasonality charts include 20 years of data, some 30, 40, 50 years of data. So there’s no guarantee that it’s going to happen. Now, the markets are currently very overbought, and a lot of people are looking for a pullback to start at some point. So what should have happened, according to the seasonality charts, what should have happened in March may shift over to April, but we have absolutely no sign of that coming into Monday’s trading action.

Well, now that we know that options traders in Chicago are still bullish, and we know that stock traders in New York are still bullish, there’s no reason that we can’t be bullish on the Canadian stock market. Now, as we come into this week’s trading action, most of the major Canadian indices are overbought, and they’re up at the top of the range. I am not looking for low-risk buying opportunities. Looking at this panic zone chart for the TSX, you can see last time we had a pressure zone, and we were down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. That’s when we look for a low-risk buying opportunity. Now, what we’re looking for is selling opportunities up here. And what I’m going to do, if you weren’t looking over my shoulder right now, here’s what I would do. I would bring up the list of all the major Canadian indices, and I would just go like this. What I’m doing is I’m just scanning through, and I am looking for a new early warning signal, and there’s consumer staples with a new early warning signal, down a little over 1%, consumer staples, not the most volatile index, but that’s one that I would be concerned about.

Then as we continue to just scan down, we’re not seeing anything new. No early warning signals. There’s the industrials making a new high. We’ve had several early warning signals over the past couple of months for the tech sector, and not really a lot of pullback. So we’re up at the top of the Panic Zones here. We’re projecting lower prices. That hasn’t started yet. So then we get to materials, which was down on the week, but no early warning signal. Then we’ve got real estate. Then we’ve got telecom stocks. And you can see the last time we had an early warning signal was here. It’s an early warning signal until it’s confirmed, and of course, it ended up getting confirmed. And now we’re looking to see if we can hold the 2023 lows for the telecom sector. And then last up, utilities. So only one new early warning signal to be concerned about. Now, after going through the weekly Panic Zone charts, I’m going to move on to the weekly Right Side charts. And again, we only had one new early warning signal from the Panic Zones chart, so there’s not a lot to be concerned about.

If we start hitting the down arrow key from the TSX to the TSX 60 to mid-caps, small caps, and unfortunately, microcaps not really keeping up. We did deep dip through the lower channel line this week, but we didn’t close below it, so we are still on a weekly buy signal, putting in a peak a couple of weeks ago, and we’ll have to see if the market can hold last week’s low. Then looking at the sectors, we’ve got clean technology stocks on a weekly sell signal, no change there. No change for consumer discretionary. Consumer staples pulled back, closing above the upper channel line, so not overly concerned just yet. Then energy stocks making a new high this week, and congratulations to everybody who got into energy stocks. Then looking at financials, financial is doing well, bank is doing well, no change in trend there. A small pullback for the gold sector. Potential top for the gold stocks, for mining stocks in general this week. We’ll just have to keep an Buy on them. There’s certainly some new daily sell signals, but really haven’t seen fall through to the downside just yet. That could change on Monday. Then looking at income trust, no change there.

Health care was up over 10% on the week. That had a lot to do with a marijuana stock. There’s only a handful of stocks in the health care sector, so not really a sector I follow that closely. Global mining, still on a buy signal here. You can see we put in a new high and then pulled back, still above the upper channel line, so not concerned. I’m not concerned about base metals. New high for industrials, and industrials have certainly helped, along with the Infotec sector, keep the Canadian market afloat in 2024. There’s Infotec still of closing above the upper channel line, so no concern coming into this week’s action. Then looking at the materials, we were down slightly on the week. So again, mining stocks may have put in a high last week. It could be a short term high that does not end up really directly affecting the weekly charts, but the only time will tell. Then real estate, been trading in the channel for the past couple of weeks. So a close below 305.46 this coming Friday would give us a new weekly sell signal for the Canadian real estate sector. Then, of course, you would want to look at individual real estate stocks and see if your corresponding stocks actually received a sell signal with the index.

The index, of course, is made up of a whole bunch of stocks, and not all of them will generate sell signals at the same time. Then moving on from real estate, we’re looking at telecom. Telecom has been on a sell signal for a while now, looking to see if we can hold the lows from late 2023. And then last up, utilities. Utilities still on a sell signal here. That could change this week with a close above 279.43. Again, we’ll just have to wait and see. Okay, folks, let’s finish off today’s presentation taking a look at commodity prices for the week. And we had a big reversal in the price of copper closing down on the week. It didn’t close below the previous week’s low, but certainly enough to give us a bearish reversal week. So a potential top for copper. Gold, on the other hand, basically closed where it opened on the week, so no change at all from the previous week. It was down a $1.47 on the week after making a new high, running up to the 2250 level and then starting to pull back. Silver, on the other hand, did drop over 2% on the week, so making a new high for this move, then rolling over, that gives us a bearish reversal signal.

So potential tops for both copper, gold, and silver last week, and we’ll have to see if we get continued selling into this week. Now, looking at the energy sector, Crudol lost all of its gains, ending the week just up five cents on the week. So we were trying to break out above 81.25. We did trade above it during the week, but we did not close above it, so no joy there. If we had have closed above 81.25, then we’d be talking about 87.50, but that is not the case going into Monday’s trading action. Our last chart of the day is natural gas. It was up a little over 1% on the week, but certainly no change in trend for natural gas. Everything’s still red down here. There is a chevron indicating a possible bottom, but until these dots start turning blue, we’re really not going to get overly bullish on natural gas. Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation. The stocks still look very bullish. We are coming into month-end. We’re also coming into a long weekend. Which is usually bullish. So not overly concerned about stocks, but commodities, on the other hand, to see gold run up and make a new high and then lose it all going into the end of the week, to see Crudol make a new high for this move and then give it up all going into the end of the week.

That’s not a very bullish picture for those commodities. So let’s see how things turn out this week. But coming into a long weekend, coming into month-end, usually has a bullish bias to it. So I’m not overly concerned about a major sell off, but maybe the commodity sector’s roll over this week. We’ll just have to wait and see. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time, you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border.

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, March 25, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. There’s no major economic numbers coming out this morning. There’s some individual stock news. We’ll get to that in a couple of minutes. We do have gold trading down $15 to $20, depending on when you blink. Looking at the VIX, you can see the VIX made a new low for this move on Thursday, and then basically clawed its way back to almost unchanged on the day. The VIX is still on a daily sell signal. That’s positive for short-term market outlook. If we look at some weekly charts that I just created this morning, they’re not on the website, but I just wanted to see how the week was progressing into the weekend. The VIX is still on a weekly sell signal, so that’s supportive for a long term positive movement in the stock market. Remember, back here in October is when we got our weekly sell signal, and from that point on, the stock market has been moving higher. Now, there’s the S&P making a new high up over 2%. We’ve got the Nasdaq 100 up 2.75%. We’ve got the TSX 60 making a new high up over 1% on the week.

Then looking at crude oil, and crude oil is still positive for the week, but giving up a lot of its gains, so it’s starting to pull back a bit. Not a major concern so far. We’re not near a daily sell signal coming into Friday’s trading action, so not overly concerned. Now, the price of gold is up $23 and change on the week. It’s giving up $16 to $20 in the pre-market this morning, so we may actually end the week flat for the price of gold. Now, there’s a couple of stocks in the news. We talked about Apple yesterday having some potential legal problems, and it turned out that that’s what happened. And Apple rolled over yesterday and is back on a daily sell signal trading up a couple of pennies in the pre-market. Now, Tesla is down over 3% in the pre-market. It’s coming into Friday’s trading action already on sell signal. It was looking like we were about to get a buy signal, but that’s certainly not going to happen on Friday morning as we are trading down below the lower channel line once again. Now, I talked about the potential top in the mining sector the other day, and I may have been off by one day.

Yesterday, the mining stocks moved higher and then reversed, and we’ve got bearish reversal signals, whether you’re looking at the XGD on Toronto or the GDX or the GDXJ or the SIL, Silver Miners ETF. They all put in bearish reversal signals yesterday. Now, we’re looking to see if we get fall through to the downside today. With the commodities trading lower this morning, that may turn out to be true. So instead of Wednesday being the top, Thursday may have turned out to be the top for the mining sector. Energy stocks are still doing really well. If you haven’t already done so, it’s probably a good idea to lock in some profits. Certainly, you don’t want to We’re going to totally liquidate a position here, but when we start off and look at the commodities, they’re still doing okay. Crude oil put in a high the other day and it’s starting to pull back. On Friday on the USO, we would need to close below $75.30 33 cents. So far, crude oil is trading slightly higher in the pre-market. Gasolines pulled back over the past couple of days, so no change there. Natural gas, unfortunately, still on a sell signal.

That’s pretty well the norm for natural gas. We may have put in a higher low over the past week, and that could certainly turn out to be a bullish sign going forward. Of course, the next thing we want to see is a higher high, and we’re certainly not going to see that on Friday morning. Now, looking at the major US energy ETFs, the iShares Global Energy hit a new high yesterday. Then a new high for the XLE. Then if you’re looking at the equipment makers, we saw a new high yesterday. The Explorers put a new high, and small-cap energy stocks also put in a new high on Thursday. Now, when we look at the individual stocks, and I’m going to measure what they’ve done over the last month, not from the last buy signal on each individual stock, it’s easier to do it this way. Valero has been the big winner, followed by Marathon Petroleum, followed by Baker Hughes. Now, Baker Hughes is still negative for the year, but up a little over 15% for the month. Then we’ve got Marathon Oil up over 15%, Targa up over 13%, and then Chevron not doing well over the last month, is certainly still up on the year, but it’s underperformed the rest of the US energy sector.

Now, moving on to the Canadian energy sector. When we look at the XEG, we’re up a little over 11% for the month. Of course, the 2X Horizons Beta Pro product should be up approximately twice that, and that is certainly the case. It’s up at just under 22% for the month. Now, looking at individual stocks, Meg Energy has been the big winner, followed by Headwater, followed by Enterplus, then we’ve got Canadian Natural Resources. Now, this is the big elephant in the room. When we look at the market cap of Canadian energy stocks, you can see the Canadian Natural Resources is a little less than twice the value of Suncor, certainly more than twice the value of Imperial Oil and Cenovus. Then the stocks That’s where we have a lot of things that traders like to trade most are certainly much smaller in market weight. When Canadian Natural Resources moves, that can move the TSX-60 and certainly move the TSX. Then we’ve got Tamarack, followed by Crescent Point, followed by Whitecap. Then a couple of stocks did not do well over the last month. Paramount Resources obviously has some stock-specific problems. Then we’ve got Birchcliff, which is certainly a very popular tradable stock.

It is still on a sell signal Here’s our final here, and that would change on Friday with a close above $5.50. In summary here, all of these energy stocks and ETFs are very overbought. Remember, we look for low-risk buying opportunities off the bottom of the Panic Zones with the Pressure Zone forming, and then we’ve moved all the way up to the top of the Panic Zones here. We’re currently ranked at 10. That’s also true for an ETF such as the XLE. This is not the time and place you want to add new money to the energy sector. This is the time and place where you want to lock in profits without completely liquidating your position. And certainly, if anybody’s interested in buying energy stocks, this is not the time and place to do so. Every couple of months, you get a low-risk buying opportunity, and that is certainly not the case right now. Just enjoy it while it’s happening, and it might be over fairly soon. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open, except maybe in the mining sector, where we may see some downward pressure.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, March 22, 2024