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Morning Market Outlook 04022024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from In the pre-market this morning, we’ve got stock index futures trading lower while commodities are trading higher, so we may see a divergence in the North American markets on Tuesday. Yesterday, we saw the VIX spike higher, did not close above the upper channel line, but certainly traded through it. There is a little bit of the market that’s spoofed at the moment. We’ll get to that in a minute. We’re looking for a close for the VIX above 13.83 on Tuesday to give us a new buy signal. And of course, that would be negative for stocks if we see that the options traders in Chicago are spooked. Now, we’ve got the TSX moving up yesterday. It may move up again today with both crude oil and gold trading higher in the pre-market. We did see a pullback in the Dow yesterday, still at the upper channel line. We’ve got the S&P 500 closing slightly lower on Monday, and we’ve got the Nasdaq closing slightly higher on Monday. So no major changes in the North American indices. Now, looking at the TSX, what worked on Monday?

Well, we’ve got materials and energy stocks were the big winners, and that had a lot to do with the price of gold continuing to move higher. Silver, not tracking gold right now. That could change over the next few days. Gold could come down to meet silver. Silver could continue to rise to chase gold higher. We’ll just have to wait and see. Crude Oil made a new high yesterday. It looks like it wants to get up to 87.50. Natural gas was up nicely on Monday. Not enough to give us a buy signal, but we’re sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal for natural gas. Now, some danger signs. We’ve got gold making new highs. Is that a safety trade? Are people trying to get to hide ahead of something? We’ve got the US dollar index moving up, breaking out to a new high. We’ve got the Euro coming down to retest the previous low. Big money is moving around right now. One of the biggest things that happened on Monday was that bonds rolled over and closed down sharply yesterday. Looking at the 10-year note, we’ve got rates moving back up to the recent highs and could break out.

To new highs for 2024. So that might not be a good sign. So you’ve got gold, you’ve got currencies, you’ve got the interest rates all moving against the stock market. Now, the stock market hasn’t really noticed yet. Is that going to happen soon? We’ll just have to wait and see. Now, looking at the US market, it was communication services, then energy. Gold stocks really don’t show up in this list at all. There’s only one gold stock in the S&P 500, so it’s really not going to show up. But you will notice that utilities were down yesterday, real estate was down, and those are interest rate sensitive sectors of the market. Looking at communication services, we had Alphabets break out to a new high on Monday, and that was the big winner. Meta, which is on a sell signal right now, moved up yesterday, not enough to change things. We’ve also got Netflix, was another big winner in communication services. Again, on a sell signal, moving up, not enough to change things. Then looking at the New York most actives from Monday’s trading action, Tesla traded down the lower channel line yesterday, did not close below it.

So looking for a close below $171.56 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. For Advanced Micro Devices, we traded up to the upper channel line, did not close above it. Still looking for a close above $186.46 on Tuesday. Amc, new low for that stock. It’s been on a sell signal for a month now. Then NVIDIA trading in the channel once again. In the channel is neutral. We’re still on a buy signal here. Things would change on Tuesday with a close below $894.03. Then no joy for Apple, still on a sell signal, still closing closing below the lower channel line. Looking at some of the TSX most actives, starting with Manulife. Manulife made a new high on Thursday, pulled back on Monday. It’s still on a buy signal here. Finally, breaking away from the price point it was stuck on for a There are going to be a week’s there. Looking for a close below $32.76 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. TC Energy moving up into the channel once again. It’s up in the pre-market this morning in New York. It closed up 21 cents yesterday. It was up 19 cents again.

In the pre-market this morning in US dollars, looking for a close above $54.81 on Tuesday. Then looking at Canopy Growth that was down hard yesterday. It had put in a bearish reversal signal on Thursday, and we saw a fall through to the downside on Monday. So that is probably the end of this move for Canopy Growth. The TD Bank, it’s on a buy signal right now from Wednesday’s close, pulled back on Thursday. It was up by just a penny on Monday. Now, this looks bullish. We’ve got a higher low and a higher high. But what’s happened right now is we’ve run back up to the 200-day moving average. Back in January, we ran up to it and pulled back. So it’s going to take a lot of effort to get it up over the 200-day moving average. And being up a penny on Monday probably isn’t a good sign. Then looking at B2 Gold, second day of a buy signal here. Of course, not running with the rest of the gold pack at the moment. Then looking at Suncor, new high for Suncor on Monday. Now, several people have asked me about adding Trump Media to the database.

I really don’t want to. It’s a worthless stock. It’s a meme stock that’s not going anywhere. It’s really not something I would want to add. Space is limited, time is limited, and I’d rather add stocks of higher quality that have a potentially potential future, which this stock does not. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time, you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning, and at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, April 2, 2024

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