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Morning Market Outlook 03282024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning, the last trading day of the month and the quarter. Of course, the markets are going to be closed tomorrow for the Easter holiday. So far in the pre market this morning, things are very quiet. Stock index, futures trading right around fair value. Commodities are higher with both crude oil and gold up this morning.

We do have a whole bunch of economic numbers coming out this morning that could certainly change the direction of the market, but not expecting a lot of downward pressure on Thursday. Let’s start off reviewing some weekly charts just to see how the week is going so far. And I just ran these off on my own computer this morning for the VIX. We’re down on the week and you can see the uptrend staff celebrating that. It’s been 21 weeks that we’ve been fear free.

And during those 21 weeks, of course, the market has been able to move higher. And as we always say, if the VIX is on a sell signal, we assume the market wants to move higher. And the Dow so far is having an inside week. It’s up a little under three quarters of a percent. Inside week for the S&P 500, up a little over a quarter of a percent, not so much.

For the Nasdaq, it’s down just a third of a percentage. It’s also having an inside week. Now on the Nasdaq, 47 of the 101 stocks are currently down for the last five trading days. There’s the TSX having an inside week up over half a percent. And the commodities are still helping hold the TSX up.

Now, the best performing sector of the market this week is the marijuana sector, of course, which is a very tiny sector. It’s one we like to follow. A lot of our subscribers are in the marijuana world and we can see that the index itself was up just under 5% on the week. But then we’ve got Canopy Growth up over 23% on the week. And so second week of a buy signal for canopy growth.

That’s what it looks like on a daily chart. And of course, these stocks have been crushed over the past couple of years. But there may be light at the end of the tunnel if the US and Germany start to relax their cannabis laws. And that’s what people are hoping for. And of course, by the rumor sell, the news is still the order of the day.

So hopefully you’ve locked in some profits so far and you’ve got a partial position left and you’re going to ride it out and see just how high this sector can go. Now, looking at the Magnificent Eight, they’re not performing that well this week. And looking at a daily chart of Alphabet, we’ve got up and filled the open gap there and have struggled to move higher ever since. That may be the top for Alphabet, but the high from back in January is just above where we are now. So traders might want to go up and retest that high.

Still no reason to sell Alphabet. Amazon still on a buy signal here. Pretty sloppy trading over the past couple of weeks. But you see we made a high and a higher high and then we made a low here and we made a higher low there. So that’s still a bullish flaw for Amazon.

We’re still on a buy signal here. Still waiting for Apple. Apple’s come around since that big legal news last week. We’re looking for a close on Friday above $174.56. Now Meta back on a sell signal just by a penny.

Yesterday we were looking for a close below $493.87 and we closed at $493.86. So, you know, typically if something like that happens, it’s a very light sell signal. You can always wait for the next close below the lower channel line. There are a couple of bearish signs here. It looks like a couple of days ago we put in a lower high, so that’s bearish.

We still have some room on the midterm chart to go. You may want to hold out and see if we get a sell signal. On the midterm chart you can see momentum has been diminishing over the past few weeks and that’s a bearish sign. And then the pros are starting to give up control for meta. Of course they’re not rushing out the door here, but they are locking in some profits and certainly not trying to push the price of the stock up any longer.

So, you know, you can always wait one more day and see if meta closes below the lower channel line once again on Thursday. Then looking at Microsoft traded down to the lower channel line yesterday looking for a close below $418.47 on Thursday. Then looking at Nvidia, we traded down to the lower channel line on Wednesday looking for a close below $890.26. The assumption is that we’re going to go up and test $1,000. Now.

Three days ago we put in a lower high and then we’ve pulled back the last couple of days. Maybe that run is over. Only time will tell. But yeah, lower high is a bearish sign for this stock. Now Shopify traded down the lower channel line in New York on Wednesday, looking for a close below $77.70 on Thursday for Shopify in Toronto.

We’re looking for a close below $104.68 on Thursday. And then looking at Tesla inside day yesterday closed slightly higher. Looking for close on Thursday below $170.52 to give us a new daily sell signal. Now, if we go back in time, we had an open gap here that was never filled. We got up to resistance and stop.

The open gap here has not been filled yet. If we hit our next price target of $187.50, that would certainly fill it. But you can see we’re in no rush to fill that gap at the present time. Let’s finish off just with a quick recap of what worked in March. On the TSX 60, Kinross was up over 21%. On the TSX composite.

New Gold was up nearly 50% for the last 30 days. And then we’ve got on the DOW it was 3M, up over 13% for the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 it was Micron, up nearly 30% for the month. And then on the S&P 500 after Micron it was Dexcon, up over over 20% for the month. And of course they monitor glucose.

And Dexcon investors must be happy because who makes glucose? Well, Krispy Kreme does. And it popped sharply over the past couple of days on that announcement that they’re partnering with McDonald’s. What hasn’t worked out so well since that announcement? Well, the makers of Ozempic have been pulling back over the past couple of days, so the top might be in for Ozempic.

We’ll just have to wait and see if investors continue to sell the stock. Okay, folks, that is all from me for Thursday morning. And that’s all for me for this week. Have a great and safe long weekend. And next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

So far, the market looks like it’s going to be fairly quiet. But we do have a whole bunch of economic numbers coming out before the market opens and that could certainly change the overall tone and direction of the market on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, March 28, 2024

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