Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet. We are waiting for some economic numbers to come out at 8:30 this morning that could add to the premarket volatility. It is the day before Thanksgiving, which is historically a positive day for the markets. Yesterday, the VIX continued to move lower. We’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.04 on Wednesday. And of course, that upper channel line is continuing to move lower daily. Now, Tuesday turned out to be an inside day for the S&P 500 and for the Nasdaq and for NVIDIA . NVIDIA reported earnings last night. We saw it trading down last night. It is trading up in the premarket this morning. We’re still stuck to $500. If we can start to break away from $500, 531.25 is our next target to the upside. In the premarket this morning, we’re trading up for $5 $6 ahead of those economic numbers. Now, while the US major indices had an inside day on Tuesday, the Canadian market actually was negative from the get-go and traded right down to the upper channel line.

So for the iShares for the TSX 60, we’re looking for a close below $30.32 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. Now, it was an odd day yesterday. Only one sector was up, and that was materials. The gold stocks traded higher yesterday, both gold and silver stocks. At the bottom was all the safety trades, consumer discretionary, health care, consumer staples, utilities. Those are basically the safety sectors. They led the market lower yesterday. There’s Barrick leading the TSX 60 higher, while George Weston led the TSX 60 lower down over 5% on the day. You don’t see that very often. Moving on, let’s take a look at the leveraged ETFs. And of course, in Canada, they are 2X ETFs. In the US, there’s 2X ETFs as well, but there’s also 3 X ETFs, and we like to use those. So the Horizons BetaPro Bull ETF for the TSX 60 had a pullback yesterday, so no change in trend. We hit 18.75, so cha-ching, you got to lock in some profits. Next target to the upside is 19.53, and you’ll see that we traded just below that level back in the summer and into September. I wouldn’t be putting an order in it in 19.53.

I’d be going back and looking at that high and then putting an order in just below that level. Now looking at the 2X ETF for the S&P 500, and of course, we’re looking at Bull ETFs right now. Inside day yesterday, we’ve had several opportunities to take money off the table. You just have a partial position left and you’re waiting to get kicked out. On Wednesday, of course, a close below 15.84 would give us a sell signal, certainly not expecting that to happen. Similar situation for the Nasdaq-100 inside day yesterday, we’ve had several opportunities to take off the table looking to lock in some more profits at 15.63. Now looking at the Energy sector, we’re looking at the Bear ETF for the Energy sector right now. That ETF has been capped by the 100-day moving average and the top of the Fly Paper channel. We need to break out above those highs if this ETF is going to continue to move higher. When you’re looking at anything commodity related, of course, the volatility goes up. For this Energy ETF, the current average to range is 4.07 %. Compare that to the Nasdaq 100 ETF, which is down at 2.3 %.

When you get away from those major indices and into the commodity ETFs, the volatility goes up. Speaking of volatility, the Gold Bull ETF is currently on a buy signal. We’re coming up to the 13.28 level, which has been a major area of resistance over the past few months. Of course, if we can start to take that out, then 14.06 and 14.84 do come into play. Okay, so those are some of the top Canadian leveraged ETFs. Now we’re going to move on to the US market. Again, I’m just going to be covering some of the top ones. Just a reminder, the main reason I like following these is the fact that we can play both sides of the market in our retirement accounts. There’s certainly all kinds of options to make money when the market is falling in a regular trading account, but you are limited in your retirement accounts. And so that’s why I love following these because when the market’s going down, you can make money. Now we’re starting off looking at the Bull ETF for the S&P 500. And again, these are going to be 3X ETFs. And again, it was an inside day yesterday.

We’re trying to get to 93.75. Now is that a legitimate target? It certainly is. We hit that back in August. So we’re expecting to be able to go up to that level as well and take in some more profits. Looking at the Nasdaq-100, again, it was an inside day yesterday. We hit 43.75 this week. Next target to the upside is 46.88. If you look back in July, we hit that level. So that is a legitimate target. Again, because these are 3 X ETFs, the volatility is going to be higher compared to the 2 X ETFs in Canada. Right now, the average to range for the 3 X Bull ETF for the Nasdaq 100 is 3.46 %. Now, Semiconductors are going to have even more volatility, and we’re trying to get to $25. Is that a legitimate target? Not really. We fated that just back in August, so I wouldn’t be putting an order in at $25. I would be putting an order in just below that level. We’re back at the highs from August. If we can take that out, and that hasn’t been done since back in July, then 2013 would certainly become a legitimate target.

Of course, Semiconductors have more volatility than the rest of the market. The average true range for the semiconductor 3X ETF is currently 5.81%. You’re getting up there past what we would normally consider the volatility for a commodity sector. Now, there is a FANG ETF. There’s a 3X FANG ETF. It’s going to move fairly similar to the Nasdaq 100. We had an insight day yesterday. We hit $200. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits. Is 225 a legitimate target? Well, if you look back to the left, you can see we hit that in July. So with NVIDIA trading higher today, we may be headed towards the 225 level. And let’s finish off looking at the 3X Bull for financials. Typically, these aren’t that popular, but in 2023, with what’s been going on with the regional banking sector, there’s been a lot more interest and a lot more volatility in the financial sector. So here we are along the bull. We’re trying to hit $68.75. Is that a legitimate target? Certainly is. We hit that in September. Of course, if we break out above 68.75, you can look 2 lines up all the way up to $75.

That would be our new playing field. Now looking at the Fly Paper Channel chart. Again, we’re using this to keep track of our average true range. Right now, it is 2.95. Typically, the financial sector has lower volatility than certainly the technology sector and the commodity sector. Typically, it’s at the lower end of the overall scale, so a lot less volatility in financials. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Looking for a fairly quiet day this morning. Us markets will be closed Thursday and half of Friday. Canadian markets will be open Thursday and Friday. We don’t cover them when the US markets close. There’s really no reason to do much in the Canadian market without the guidance of the stock index futures and commodity futures. So we will be closed Thursday and Friday. The next time we’ll be posting charts is Saturday afternoon. We’ll certainly be posting them Wednesday night, but after that, the next update will be Saturday afternoon. So enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday. And the next time you’ll hear my voice is next Monday.

[00:00:00]: Pre-market analysis and market sentiment
[00:01:13]: Canadian market performance and sector analysis
[00:02:26]: Leveraged ETFs and trading strategies
[00:03:39]: Volatility in energy and commodity ETFs
[00:04:45]: Bull ETFs for the S&P and Nasdaq
[00:05:57]: Volatility in Semiconductor ETFs
[00:07:10]: Financial sector ETF analysis and trading targets

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Introduction

In a day dominated by Nvidia’s performance, the AI stocks experienced a significant surge. Tech stocks also benefited from the rally, with Microsoft leading the charge. Let’s dive into the details of this AI-focused day and explore the factors that influenced the market.

The Impact of the Treasury Auction

The 20-year Treasury auction had a dramatic impact on the market. Following the auction, yields plummeted, leading to a surge in tech stocks. The QQQ, in particular, experienced a 0.33% increase immediately after the auction. As the auctions continue to perform well and yields decrease, it’s important to keep an eye on the weakening dollar.

Oil and Energy Stocks

Oil prices have been on the rise, especially after reaching the ascending trend line. Many experts predict a potential swing trade in oil, which could result in a significant upward movement. Additionally, pay close attention to XLE, as it may provide an alternative way to invest in energy.

The Importance of HYG

HYG, the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, is considered a reliable indicator of market trends. Currently displaying bearish divergence on the 4-hour RSI, HYG’s performance may provide valuable insights into the market’s direction.

QQQ’s New High

QQQ recently reached a new 52-week high, surpassing the July highs. This achievement marks a significant milestone for the tech-focused ETF. With a fair value gap acting as a magnet, QQQ is poised for further growth, potentially reaching all-time highs.

The Power of Equally Weighted ETFs

Equal weight ETFs, such as IWM, have shown strength in recent days. These ETFs, consisting of forgotten stocks that are now seeing gains, have the potential to drive market movements. Keep a close eye on IWM as it approaches its key resistance levels.

The Magnificent Seven

The Magnificent Seven, including Nvidia and Microsoft, have been instrumental in the market’s recent rally. However, it’s essential to watch for other stocks that are contributing to the market’s upward movement. The influx of funds into QQQ demonstrates the hedge funds’ efforts to catch up.

Earnings Season and Stock Performance

Earnings season is in full swing, with numerous retailers reporting their financial results. The market’s reaction to these earnings releases will indicate the overall sentiment towards the retail sector. Nvidia’s earnings, in particular, will have a significant impact on the market. A positive earnings report could propel the stock to new heights.

The Outlook for Tech Giants

Tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Netflix have been making headlines recently. Meta’s breakout above a key level signals potential future gains. However, it is important to monitor fair value gaps and the stock’s overall stretch from its moving averages. Netflix, on the other hand, has successfully filled its earnings gap and is currently facing resistance levels.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

As the market continues to be influenced by AI stocks and semiconductors, it’s crucial to closely monitor Nvidia’s performance. The outcome of their earnings report will shape the market’s trajectory. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis in the coming days.

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[00:00:00]: Market Overview and NVIDIA Earnings
[00:01:23]: Impact of US Dollar and Bond ETF Analysis
[00:02:31]: Understanding Volatility and Trade School Insights
[00:03:51]: Comparing Average True Range % for Different Symbols
[00:05:16]: Market Signals from Various Bond ETFs
[00:06:29]: Broadening Market Rally and Hitting Targets
[00:07:43]: Semiconductor and TSX 60 Analysis
[00:08:47]: Commodity ETF Signals and Outlook
[00:09:54]: Precious Metals Update and Market Predictions

Well, good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, it’s pretty early in the morning. Stock index futures are slightly below fair value. Commodities are mixed with crude oil lower while gold is higher on Tuesday morning. Now, we don’t have a lot of economic numbers coming out on Tuesday. We do have US existing home sales coming out at 10 o’clock. That could put a little volatility into the market. The VIX closed lower yesterday, and we’re going to stay short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.24. Let’s start off looking at the elephant in the room, and that’s NVIDIA, which pushed over $500 yesterday. It’s coming out with earnings this afternoon after the market closes. This is not only a semiconductor play, but an AI play. So if the earnings are received well and the stock moves up, that could pull the semiconductors and AI stocks with it. If it doesn’t impress investors and it starts trading lower, that could take the semiconductors and AI stocks lower. We’ll just have to wait and see. But a lot of stuff going on in the AI world over the weekend and the head of OpenAI got fired and Microsoft hired him and Microsoft made a new closing high on Monday.

The US dollar continued to move lower on Monday. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. We got a new closing high for the bonds on Monday. This is the 30 year bond and that put downward pressure on bond yields. Now, falling bond yields is currently supportive for higher stock prices, especially stocks that don’t make a lot of money. Now, looking at a bond ETF such as the XBB, you can see we’ve had a nice run off the October lows and we’ve run right up to the 200 day moving average. That could continue to act as resistance. It’s been quite a while since we’ve been up to the 200 day moving average. This could be interesting going forward. It could just stop the market in its tracks if bonds start pulling back from this level. We’ll just have to wait and see. Now, just eyeballing this chart, it looks like it’s had a nice move off. You can see the change in the moon cycle there. We made a low and we’ve had a nice move up to the 200 day moving average. But in percentage terms, that’s not that big a move. It’s important to know exactly what the percentage opportunity is for a particular symbol.

Let’s do a little Trade School this morning. Again, this looks like a nice move, but compare that to any other chart and you’ll find out that in percentage terms, it’s not that big a deal. When we look at the Fly Paper channel chart, the first thing you’re going to notice is just how wide the Fly Paper channel is. Without knowing anything else, you can assume that the level of volatility for this particular symbol is rather low. Now, when we’re looking at a futures contract, if it looks like this, then the opportunities can be made up by using margin. Anytime you’re trading a futures contract, and especially in the world of commodities, you can get much higher leverage using margin than you can in the stock market. Typically, when we’re looking at stocks and ETFs, the margin opportunity is not that big compared to the futures contracts. When we’re looking at something like this particular bond ETF, the Average True Range or the difference between the average low and the high each day is only 0.65 %, so certainly over half a %, which is not that big a deal. Typically, a financial institution such as the Royal Bank or SunLife, their Average True Ranges are usually in the 1-2 % per day.

Now, typically, these financial institutions pay a dividend, so that helps reduce their volatility. If you want to increase your volatility, increase your risk reward, you can always move to commodity or technology related stocks. Currently, Athabasca has an Average True Range of a little over 4%. That’s also true for Shopify. And so you can see how wide the Fly Paper channel is. It gives you a feel for the long term volatility of a particular symbol. Of course, if a technology stock pays a dividend, then that’s going to reduce volatility. So you can see Apple, the Average True Range is currently 1.56 %. Compare that to Roku, which doesn’t pay a dividend, of course, and it fluctuates much more than Apple does. So just take a look at that chart versus this chart. And currently, Roku’s Average True Range is 5.74 %. When you’re comparing opportunities, you need to look at something like the Average True Range to give you an idea. Am I buying something that’s a hand grenade and I’m pulling the pin? Or is it much more a calm, cool, collected symbol, such as most of the financial institutions? Now not only do we provide Average True Range %, which you need for comparing symbols, but we also show you what the Average True Range is in a dollar amount.

And currently for Roku, it’s a $5.46 per day. You can’t use that to compare one symbol to another. But certainly, once you’re trading the symbol, knowing that the average range is $5.46, you can use that in your daily calculations, especially if you’re trading options. Now moving on, let’s take a look at a couple more bond ETFs. The TLT made a new closing high yesterday. We saw a new closing high for emerging markets and a new closing high for the junk bonds. And so the fact that money is going into all of these different bond sectors is a good sign for the market. People buying bonds is going to help put pressure on bond yields. And of course, that’s going to help the stock market move higher. Now, we’re looking at the Nasdaq-100, we made a new high yesterday, which is what everybody’s talking about. We were up 1.22 %, but notice that the equal weighted Nasdaq ETF is up 1.23 %. So that tells us that the rally is broadening out. That’s a good thing. We also saw the Russell 2000 and the Russell Microcaps move up yesterday. We also saw Canadian small caps and Canadian microcaps continue to move up yesterday.

That’s a good sign. We want to see the market, the rally broaden out into year end. We don’t want it to just be those big cap seven technology stocks. Now the SPY hit its next target yesterday, so congratulations. You got to take some money off the table. The Nasdaq 100 also hit its next target yesterday. Again, congratulations. You got to lock in some profits up there. Of course, you’re not going to completely liquidate a position. The Nasdaq-100 is up at the top of our trading range. You can do the math and figure out where the next targets are. If we continue to move higher from here, then the trading range will expand. That hasn’t happened yet to get a feel for what the next target could be. If you look at the weekly chart, you can see that 406.25 is our next target. At the same time, $400 would certainly be a potential area of psychological resistance. Now, another positive note from yesterday’s trading action is the semiconductor ETF has started to trade above $200. We haven’t broken away from it, but a new high is a new high. And $212.50 could be our next target to the upside if we break away from the $200 level.

There is a little gap up here that could also act as a potential price magnet. Then looking at the iShares for the TS X60, you can see we’re still projecting higher prices here, but we are coming up to long term resistance up at 31.25. That held us in check earlier this year, so that could be a major line in the sand for the TSX going forward. Now, a lot of these charts have open gaps, and I always tell you to don’t worry about a gap that’s behind you. If the market’s moving up, you don’t have to worry about gaps behind you. But we’re going to see a pullback at some point and a logical place for the market to find support is at the top or the bottom of an open gap. We’ll be watching for that going forward. It has nothing to do with Tuesday’s trading action, but as you’re looking through your charts, you should know where those open gaps are, and we’ll be watching to see what the market does when it does start to pull back. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation with a quick look at the commodity ETF starting with the USO.

It traded right up to the upper channel line yesterday. A close above 72.81 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday. Currently, Crude oil is trading down in the premarket. No hope for natural gas on Tuesday, a new low on Monday. Then looking at the metals, we’ve got the GLD on a buy signal that would change on Tuesday with a close below 181.70. So far in the premarket, gold is trading higher. Palladium is on its second day of a buy signal, trading up to the open gap. Then we’ve got platinum trading up over two % on the day. So nice big update for platinum. And then silver pulled back yesterday, a close below $20.99 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Silver ran up to the 21.88 level, put in a bear reversal day and has pulled back. The high from Friday or from Thursday is the one to break out above. Then, of course, we can see that we made a high previously back in August, and that would certainly be the next target to the upside. If silver wants to continue to move higher from here, you can see the pros are still in control at the present time.

And of course, if Silver wants to continue to move lower on Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below $20.99. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, November 21, 2023

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:01:12]: Market Forecast for the Week
[00:02:25]: Analysis of VIX and Market Trends
[00:03:33]: Discussion on Chip Sector and NVIDIA
[00:04:51]: Review of Market Performance
[00:05:59]: TSX Market Analysis
[00:07:04]: Wall Street Performance
[00:08:15]: Sector Performance Overview
[00:09:19]: Impact of Crude Oil Prices
[00:10:25]: Conclusion and Preview for Tuesday

Good morning, everyone. And welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are fairly flat. Commodities are mixed with crude or higher, while gold is down $10 in the premarket on Monday morning. While Microsoft’s in the news this morning, and it’s just back to where it was on Friday. So it is up nicely. It’s putting a little bit into Nasdaq stocks, but we’re really just recovering on Friday. Microsoft was down $6.32. This morning, it’s up $6.25. So again, just back to where we were on Friday. Nvidia is the stock to watch, of course, this week. It comes out with earnings on Tuesday afternoon, and that may set the tone for the market for the rest of the week. Now, it is a holiday shortened week with US markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and closed a half day on Friday. Now, traditionally, things are fairly bullish coming into a long weekend, and it’s going to be fairly quiet. A lot of people are going to be taking Wednesday off. A lot of people are actually going to be taking the whole week off. I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday and Tuesday were flat to lower, while Wednesday would be a positive day.

Thursday, US markets are closed. Friday, should be a flat to positive day for the market and we should end the week positively, I hope. With the US markets closed on Thursday and half day on Friday, we’re actually going to be closed both days. Yes, the Canadian markets will be open, but they’ll be very thinly traded. A lot of the professionals also take the days off because without guidance from U. S. Futures, including U. S. Commodity futures, there isn’t a lot of reasons to take chances on Thursday or Friday. So with us closed on Thursday and Friday, the weekend update will be done by 3:00 PM Saturday afternoon. Now, we are looking at some weekly charts today. It is the first day of the week. The VIX was down last week. And so we’re going to remain long term bullish on the stock market as long as the VIX does not close above $19.12 this coming Friday. And if you’re watching the markets on the daily charts, we’re short term bullish. And we will stay short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.47 on Monday. And of course, if that doesn’t happen, that upper chan line is going to continue to move lower daily.

Now we are coming into the end of November, and you can see that the VIX historically has moved up into the end of November first of December. So we wouldn’t be surprised to see a little downward pressure next week. And of course, we have a whole bunch of gaps that could act as potential targets on the way back down and also potential areas of support. Remember, on the way up, their resistance on the way down, they are potential areas of support. Then we expect the VIX to move down. Now, we don’t actually expect the VIX to keep moving down at the same rate it’s been moving. We wouldn’t be surprised if it came back down to the previous lows and just traded sideways for a while. As long as we stay below the FlyPaper channel, I’m certainly willing to remain not only short term bullish, but long term bullish on the market. Now last week, we talked about the fact that, yes, we are making higher highs. Yes, the chips were going up, but we were having trouble getting the rest of the market to go along. We’re also talking about the fact that while fall in commodity prices are helpful to the US market, they can actually hurt the Canadian market.

When we talk about the chip sector, of course, we’re talking about NVIDIA. Looking at the weekly chart here, you can see $500 is currently acting as resistance. If we can break through that, then 562.50 is our next target on the weekly charts. We’re talking about weekly moves here, not daily moves. Now, 500 has been acting as resistance. We talk about if you see a price target, a profit target of $500, you might want to put your order in a little below that, and you can see that that’s what the market did. They got as high as 499.60, and somebody with a sell order in at that level turned the market around, and that’s as high as we could get for this particular week. Now, when we look at a daily chart, the actual next target on the daily chart is 531.25 before we get to 562.50. If we’re looking down on Monday, a close below 467.76, would give us a new sell signal for NVIDIA. We’re certainly not expecting that to happen on Monday. It could certainly happen on Wednesday, depending on what happens on Tuesday afternoon. Now looking at the broader market, even though we were talking about the risk off trade not working up to last week, well, guess what?

After I posted that, the Russell 2000 moved up over 5% on the week. The microcap sector was up over 6%. In Canada, it was a bit less. We’ve got small caps up just under 2%, still on a weekly sell signal. And the microcap stocks in the venture exchange were up nearly 4%. It’s hard to notice. We’re still trading below the lower channel line. But you can see that investors did come back into the market and did choose a broader range of stocks last week than they had previously done. That’s a bullish sign for the market going forward. Now, speaking of the Canadian market, the TSX was up nicely. We’re back on a weekly buy signal. Remember, we put in a lower-low recently, so that is still in check. What we need to do now is put in a higher high to tell us that the pattern is starting to change. So far, we don’t have any evidence of that. If you look up, you can see that the 20,625 level has been resistance for a year now, and it would be a major event if we were able to move up and break out above that resistance.

Not only would it change the pattern? But it would certainly tell us to look up to lines all the way up to 21,875. That could be our next trading range if we can break through resistance. Now what worked? Well, base metals were the big winners. They were up 4.47 % on the week, having an inside week, so no change in trend for base metals, unlike utilities and financials that both ended the week on a buy signal. Now we’re watching the financials closely. We’re still dealing with the same pattern of lower highs and lower lows. That would change, of course, if we could take out the summer high for the financial sector. And so far, the financials are being let higher by the insurance companies. What didn’t work? Well, energy stocks actually closed slightly higher on the week. We closed up just four cents on the week for the iShare’s Energy ETF. So we’re still on a weekly buy signal here. We’ve traded below the lower channel line for the last two weeks, but we have not closed below it. Now looking at Wall Street, and of course, we’re looking for the Nasdaq to lead us higher.

The Nasdaq ended the week up over 2%, and we’re heading towards 406.25 with a possible stop at 400, which, of course, we consider psychological resistance. Now looking at the equal weighted Nasdaq, it actually outperformed the Nasdaq 100. So that’s a good sign. We were up just under 3%. And then looking at those… Then looking at the next 100 stocks, the next Gen stocks, they were up over 3.5% on the week. So it’s a nice thing to see. We’re not there for a weekly buy signal just yet, but we’re certainly heading in the right direction. Then looking at semiconductors, they were up nearly 7% on the week. So we’re back on a weekly buy signal for semiconductors. That’s a good sign for the market. And then what worked this week? Well, regional banks were up just under 10% on the week. Then we had BioTech stocks up nicely, still on a weekly sell signal, no change there. Unlike the banking sector, which was up over 8% on the week, that’s a huge move for US banks. And we’re back on a weekly buy signal heading towards those summer highs.

What also worked were the silver stocks. They were up nearly eight % on the week. Not enough to give us a buy signal, but certainly a big move. We may see a little pullback in the precious metal sectors on Monday with gold and silver, both trading lower in the premarket. What didn’t work in the US? Well, it was oil and gas equipment was actually the only major sector that closed lower on the week. Let’s finish off with those five charts. The US dollar index was down on the week. That is supportive for higher stock prices in the North American markets. Then we had bonds trading higher on the week and bond yields coming down. Again, that’s supportive for higher stock prices. The price of gold was up $47 on the week. We’re still on a weekly buy signal here, so no change in trend. We’re down $10 $11 in the premarket on Monday morning. I think this week might turn out to be an inside week for the price of gold. Then looking at crude oil, crude oil was down a $1.11 on the week making a new low for this move. It’s actually up more than that in the premarket on Monday morning.

With crude oil prices falling, that, of course, is helpful for inflation, take some pressure off the Fed. Some people also look at it as a sign that the recession might be starting. Well, crude oil has trended lower, and we’ve been lower than where we are right now. I don’t think there’s any conclusive things you can take away from the falling crude oil prices for the last few weeks. But at the same time, if we look at what’s happening in the travel industry, this is supposed to be a huge week for US travel, biggest week in probably four or five years. There’s going to be a lot of interest in anything travel related. It could be a buy the rumor, sell the news type situation. We’re getting all this positive news about how many people are going to be traveling, how many people are going to be taking planes, staying in hotels. All of that is good news. But just remember, it’s usually buy the rumor, sell the news. And so what’s going up this week may go down next week. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Thank you very much for your time and attention.

And the next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, November 20, 2023

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the premarket this morning, stock index futures and commodities are above fair value. So far, we’re looking for some buying at the open on Friday morning. We do have a US housing numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. I don’t think they’ll have much effect on the market, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Looking at the VIX, the VIX made a new low yesterday before closing slightly higher on the day. That would be a bullish reversal day. We’re looking for a close on Friday above 15.74, not expecting that to happen. There’s the VIX for the Nasdaq closing slightly lower yesterday, and the VIX for the Russell, certainly not trending to the downside still on a sell signal that’s supportive for higher stock prices. We know that the Russell has been trailing small mid-cap, micro-cap stocks have all been trailing. Not a lot of excitement in the Russell so far. Compare that to the Nasdaq. And of course, if we take those big cap, magnificent seven stocks out of the Nasdaq, it looks more like this. And then, of course, if we leave the big cap stocks and look at the smaller cap Nasdaq stocks, you can see it looks like this.

And we talked about the Nasdaq Next Generation stocks hitting, running up to 25 and reversing yesterday. And it pulled back again on Thursday. So a potential for a short term top, we’ll just have to wait and see. We’re not seeing that type of action in the premarket this morning. I’m looking at the I-share for the TSX 60, just up two cents yesterday, and it was a real mixed picture. But the Canadian market is acting very similar to the US market right now, where we’re being led higher by big cap stocks, mid-cap, small caps and micro caps are trailing at the moment and it would be nice to see those micro cap stocks start to pick up. Now, gold moved up yesterday. It’s back on a daily buy signal, joining silver already on a daily buy signal. Best performing stocks on the TSX on Thursday, Wheaton followed by Kinros. What didn’t work? Well, energy continued to move lower. We’ve got crude oil up in the premarket this morning. It was down $3.70 yesterday. It’s up a dollar in the premarket. We also are trying to hold 71.88. If that breaks, then 68.75 would be our next target.

Not expecting to head down to those levels on Friday. Natural gas made a new low for this move. We’re looking for support at 3.13 and hopefully that will hold. Suncor is back on a sell signal and this is a really bearish chart. We had a high, lower high, lower high, and now we’ve put in another lower high. That’s extremely bearish. It may turn out that Suncor will start to look more like Cenovus or a Tourmaline over the next couple of weeks. Then looking at what’s working this morning, well, the GAP is in the news this morning and it’s popping higher in the premarket. So if you had an order in 15.63, you don’t have to worry about it. It’ll get filled at the opening price. And then we may take a run up to 17.19. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation with a little trade school. And let’s talk about Walmart because if you bought here, this looks like a losing trade, but that’s not the way it’s supposed to work. If we go back in time to October 13th, that’s when Walmart generated the latest buy signal. And of course, at that time, we’re coming off the bottom of the Panic Zones.

We had some panic selling. We had a Pressure Zone form. This is the time and place you look for a low risk buying opportunity. Low risk does not mean guaranteed. Nothing’s guaranteed. Every time that we’re down the bottom of the panic zones and we get a Pressure Zone, you can look for a low risk buying opportunity and we’re going to run it up until we see an early warning signal at the top of the screen. Now back on October 13th, our price target chart looked like this. So once you got an order filled, you’ve got confirmation that those shares are in your account. Let’s say for the sake of argument, you bought 100 shares of Walmart. I would want to go back into the account right away and place an order to sell 50 % of those shares at 162.50, then put another order in to sell 50 % of the remainder, so 25 shares at 165.63. Now you don’t have to put the orders in at these exact numbers. You can put it in a little lower. And so 165.49 or 169.55, something like that would probably be a good order to put in.

Remember, these price targets are also potential areas of resistance. Then next, I would put an order in to sell half of the remainder. If you’ve got 25 shares left at that point, remember, none of these orders have been filled. You’re just planning ahead. We’re going to sell 12 shares at 168.75 or 168.69 would be good. Then up here at the top, we’ve got 13 shares left. We want to sell half at 171.88. We’ve got 13 shares left. We’re going to sell six at 171.88. We never want to completely liquidate a position. You don’t know how far a stock can run. If it can continue to run higher, you want to take advantage of that. But what happened? Well, the stock fell out of the sky, and we are used to stocks falling faster than they rise. That has just always been the case. We need to sell on the first close below the lower channel line, and that is certainly the first close below the lower channel line since October. You can see that we hit our first target at 162.50, we hit the second target at 165.63. We hit the third target at 168.75, but we did not get up to the fourth target.

What have you got left? You’ve got 13 % of your original position. You’ve got 13 shares left in your account and you need to take the loss on those 13 shares. For those 13 shares, it will be a losing trade. Now, if you’ve ever heard me use the term, we were waiting to get kicked out of the trade. Well, getting kicked out of the trade is the first close below the lower channel line. And that certainly happened yesterday. So if you’re a long Walmart, you need to liquidate that position this morning at the open. And luckily, Walmart is actually trading higher. I’m back in the premarket this morning. Let’s finish off with a customer question. If you could only trade five ETS versus five stocks, what would they be? Well, if you go into the stocks menu, you’ll first of all see my five stocks, which I trade as a basket either long or short. And then if you go down, you’ll see the Canadian 2X pairs and the US 3X pairs. I always recommend that people start trading pairs. So you’re either long the bull or long the bear. Or the opposite of that is you can be short the bull or short the bear, depending on which way the market’s going.

But I would certainly out of all the ETFs, I would want to be trading those for the most part. You don’t have to worry about which way the market’s going, and you don’t have to worry about anything like what happened to Walmart yesterday because they are ETFs. The risk is spread over a whole bunch of stocks. If you look at the US ETF volume leaders right now, and if you include the leveraged ETFs, you’ll see that the the most actively traded ETFs are actually the triples for the Nasdaq, and then you’ve got triples for semiconductors and triples for the biotech sector. Volume wise, they’re very actively traded. Of course, I always talk about the fact that the SPY and the triple Qs are the big monsters because the SPY is currently trading at $450 versus there’s a $3, there’s an $8 ETF of 40, 16, 26. This is the big monster in the room. But they’re all very actively traded. If I had limited resources and I was looking to what exactly should I be doing, I would be trading pairs of the major leveraged ETFs, the 3X in the US and the 2X in Canada.

The fact that they are 2X and 3X doesn’t make them unstable. They pretty well have the same volatility as the major technology stocks that we’d love to follow. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Have a great day. Have a great weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

[00:00:00]: Market Analysis and Opening
[00:01:13]: Nasdaq and Next Generation Stocks
[00:02:22]: Market Trends and Stock Performance
[00:03:31]: Trade School: Buying and Selling Strategies
[00:04:36]: Setting Price Targets and Planning Ahead
[00:05:53]: Evaluating Trade Outcomes
[00:07:05]: Trading ETFs versus Stocks
[00:08:21]: Leveraged ETFs and Trading Strategies

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, November 17, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, there’s a little chill in the air, not too bad, but we do have Walmart trading lower in the pre-market this morning. There’s Walmart hitting a 52-week high, and we are currently trading right around the lower channel line. A close on Thursday below 1:64.47 would give us a sell signal for Walmart. Now, oddly enough, on Wednesday, it was the US retail sector that led the markets higher and that had something to do with target popping. Now, unlike Walmart, which is coming off a 52 week high, there’s a target back there in early October making a 52 week low. Target certainly surprised investors to the upside. To the downside was Metro, the biggest loser on the TSX on Wednesday. We also had a big down day for Loblaws. Still on a buy signal, that would change on Thursday with a close below 118.35. Now, the VIX had an inside day yesterday. We’re looking for a close on Thursday above 16.04. If you’re not familiar with the VIX, it keeps track of the premiums that investors are willing to pay for options.

Historically, when the VIX is rising, that often puts downward pressure on the stock market. Right now, we’ve been watching the VIX fall and the stock market has been rising. It doesn’t work as well on the TSX, but it does certainly help. When the VIX is rising, you can see downward pressure on the Canadian stock market. And when the VIX is falling, you see upward pressure on the Canadian stock market. So that’s why we watch the VIX closely every day. It gives us a sense of what options traders are thinking about the market. So it is a great way to survey investors and find out exactly what they think with their wallets, not with their emotions, but with their wallets. And when they start to increase the amount of coverage they want for their portfolios using options. They’re willing to pay more premium to get that coverage. That means they’re worried, they’re concerned about something, and we also want to be concerned. Now, the opposite is also true. If premiums are falling and the VIX is falling, we expect the stock market to move up. Falling premiums is a good indication that options traders are bullish on the stock market.

Now looking at the DOW, it made a new high for yesterday and moving up to the highs from back in August. We’re looking to see if we can continue higher from here. Then looking at the S&P 500, it hasn’t taken out the August highs just yet, but getting pretty close. Unlike the NASDAQ, which is broken through those August highs, heading for highs from earlier this year. Then looking at the equal weighted NASDAQ, it’s punched out above the October highs, heading towards the August highs right now. Now, we did put in a bearish reversal day, but it was a very weak one. I just wanted to talk about this for a second. We did open and we traded higher and then closed below the opening. That gives us a bearish reversal signal. The market was still higher on the day, so that gives us a very weak bearish reversal signal. For a strong bearish reversal signal, not only would you reverse, not only would you close negative on the day, but you would also close below the previous days low. That would be a very strong bearish reversal signal. As we don’t have one, I’m not overly concerned at the moment.

I am much more concerned about symbols hitting resistance and stopping. Looking at the next gen, this is the next 100 stocks on the NASDAQ, so not the NASDAQ 100, the NASDAQ 101 to 200. You can see we’re trading up to $25. That’s resistance. We got as high as $24.98. If you just would give up two cents, you would have got an order filled yesterday. You have to look at those lines as not only profit target lines, but walls of resistance where there’s probably sellers sitting up there waiting to hit the sell order. You may not actually get to $25. Looking at the Semiconductor ETF, similar situation. We’re trying to get to 200, got as high yesterday as $199.69 before pulling back. We didn’t close up at $199.69, we pulled back from that level. $200 still as resistance. Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, new high yesterday for this move, we’re trying to hit 30.86, got as high as 30.82, so four cents away from hitting our target. Again, you have to look at it as a line of resistance. A wall of sellers are usually up at those price targets. Again, bearish reversal signal.

Again, we closed higher on the day. So, yeah, we did swing from a new high to actually closing below the open on the day. But we did not close below the previous days low. We certainly did not close negative on the day. So a week bearish reversal signal, nothing to be overly concerned about. Now on the TSX, we’re always looking for help from the commodity stocks. We didn’t get any yesterday from the energy, didn’t get any from the gold stocks. Where we’re seeing a lot of upward momentum over the past week has been in the financials and it’s about time. If you look at what worked over the past week, we’ve got to Brookfield was the biggest winner in percentage terms, followed by GreatWest Life, followed by Power, followed by SunLife. Those were the big winners in the financial sector over the last week and that has helped hold the TSX up over the last week. Let’s finish off looking at the ARK Invest ETFs. We’ve got a couple of winners right now. Fintech and the Next Generation Internet or the Web ETF have been the best performers. Investors not really liking the Genomics ETF at the moment.

So looking at the Fintech and new high yesterday before closing pretty close to unchanged. 21.88 was our next target. We hit 21.90. So if you had an order in up there that got filled yesterday, then looking at the Internet ETF, new high for this move, 62.50 hit it. So congratulations, you locked in some profits. The ARK Innovation ETF, 43.75, we got high yesterday as 43.75. If you had an order in at that level or slightly below it, it got filled. Congratulations. The Space ETF, new high yesterday, trying to get to 14.45, sitting on 14.06, closed just above it at 14.17. We’re hoping to get to 14.45, but hopefully, you’ve locked in some profits at 14.06. Then looking at the Industrial Innovation ETF, we’re coming up to those October highs. Our next price target was 53.13. Congratulations, you hit that yesterday, so cha-ching. Then the Genomics ETF has been on a buy signal for two days now, looking to move up to 28.13. And that might not happen on Thursday. Nobody’s giving any love to the Genomics ETF. All I can say is we made a higher low, made a higher high. That could be something going forward.

But right now on Thursday morning, it really isn’t anything. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Looking for a little pullback on Thursday morning, probably not enough to give us a lot of sell signals outside of Walmart. Walmart certainly has the potential of generating a new daily sell signal on Thursday. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Update
[00:01:16]: Understanding the VIX and Stock Market Trends
[00:02:27]: Analysis of DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ
[00:03:35]: Identifying Resistance Levels in Stock Symbols
[00:04:53]: Evaluation of Bearish Reversal Signals
[00:06:05]: Performance of Financial Sector and ARK Invest ETFs
[00:07:27]: Closing Remarks and Outlook for Thursday

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, November 16, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. Now, yesterday morning, we were waiting for CPI numbers to come out. This morning, we’re waiting for retail sales and PPI numbers to come out, and so they could also add some premarket volatility. The VIX made a new low yesterday. Stock indexes made a new high for this move. On Wednesday, we’re looking for a close on the VIX above 16.36 to change everything. So far, it does not look like that’s going to happen. The US dollar index dropped sharply yesterday. Bond prices moved up, which put downward pressure on bond yields, and that set the stock market on fire. Huge move up for regional banks and US banks on Tuesday. They led the market higher. The Dow made a new high for this move. The S&P 500 made a new high. The Nasdaq made a new high for this move, trading up to from back in July of this year. 390.63 is our next target. Hopefully, you’ve taken money off the table on all of these as they’ve moved up.

The Nasdaq is now up at the top of the panic zone, so we wouldn’t be surprised if it needed to take a break up at these levels. Semiconductors popped yesterday. Everybody had a good time. A lot of short covering on Tuesday. There’s microcap stocks. Not only did they gap higher, but they gapped up above the recent high from two weeks ago. Then looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60, we gapped higher yesterday, filled the open gap. If you had an order at 30.47 or around there that got filled yesterday. Now we’re looking to see if we can move up to 30.86. Then what worked on the TSX today? Well, REITs were the big winners followed by Gold stocks. No buy signals just yet. Looking for a close on Wednesday above 16.90. Then we’ve got the Global Base Metals back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. We’ve got Utilities already on a buy signal moving up yesterday, and then Canadian Fnancials moving up nicely on Tuesday. Looking at the New York most actives from Tuesday’s trading action, leading off with Tesla, Tesla is moving up towards the top of that open gap at 242.08.

Then we’ve got a new high for Palantir. It’s trading up to the 20.31 level, got as high as 20.10 yesterday, so we should be able to hit that today if you had an order in at 20.31. Then Plug Power, no joy there, still on a sell signal. We’ve got Ford back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close chasing Bank of America, making a new high for this move heading towards 29.69 is our next price target. Advanced Micro Devices making a new high for this move, but giving most of it up going into the close, trying to get to 125. That’s our next target. And it looks like we’re having trouble pulling away from 118.75. We are up at the high from back in July there, so that could be holding us in check at the moment. That Apple made a new high for this move, hit our 187.50 target yesterday and is trying to head towards that open gap. The high from back in late August is 189.98. That could be a target and a potential area of resistance if we can move up from 187.50. Then above that, you’ve got the open gap from back in late July at 190.69.

Let’s finish off looking at the TSX most active and Embridge pulled back. It’s sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal. Canadian Natural Resources is back on a buy signal. Remember, this is a high risk buy signal. You’re up at the top of the range here. Then Cenovus was actually down on the day, so no change in trend there. We’ve got Magna moving up nicely yesterday, so looking to take out the high from a couple of weeks ago. $75 leads us to 78.13 if we can take out that high. Then we’re looking at Suncor, second day of a buy signal, but we had a pullback. Again, these are high risk buy signals up at these levels. Then looking at Manulife, new high for this move for Manulife, you can see the open gap was filled and our next target to the upside is 26.56. But notice that we put in a lower high back here in September. So lots of resistance up there at 26.56, the air is getting rather thin. Then Algonquin Power is on a buy signal right now. If we can break away from 7.81, 8.59 would be our next target to the upside.

Then Crescent Point. No joy for Crescent Point trying to hold support here at the 9.60 level. And then we’ve got Shopify making a new high for this move, running right back up to the high from late August. You can see that our next mathematical target is 93.75. We got up to that level back in July. Then looking at Great West Life, new high for Great West Life, our next mathematical target is 42.58. And that stock has had a very nice move over the past couple of weeks. Okay, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We’ll have to wait for those economic numbers to come out at 8:30 to see which way the market is going next. This has been a great run. Hopefully, you’ve been locking in some profits along the way. We don’t need to ever completely liquidate a position until we actually get kicked out. Nobody’s getting kicked out on Wednesday morning, but it is the time and place to make sure you’ve taken some money off the table. Have a great day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:01:10]: Market Analysis and Stock Performance
[00:02:24]: Detailed Stock Analysis – Tesla, Palantir, Plug Power, Ford,
Bank of America, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple
[00:03:38]: TSX Most Active Stocks Analysis – Embridge, Canadian Natural
Resources, Cenovus, Magna, Suncor, Manulife, Algonquin Power
[00:04:49]: Continued TSX Most Active Stocks Analysis – Crescent Point,
Shopify, Great West Life

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, yesterday was a fairly quiet day. It was an inside day for a lot of technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100. This morning is fairly quiet as well. We are waiting for CPI numbers that are coming out at 8:30 this morning and that could add some volatility in the premarket. We also have a whole bunch of Fed speakers this week. I think there’s 20 of them out there. They could also add some intraday volatility to the market depending on what they say and how people take to what they say. The VIX had an inside day on Monday. We’re looking for a close on Tuesday above $16.69 to give us a buy signal for the VIX. That, of course, would be negative for stocks, Apple, Amazon, Meta. They all had inside days on Monday. Those are days of indecision, pause days. We’re looking for a breakout of the previous day’s range to tell us which way the market wants to go next. There’s the Nasdaq-100 with an inside day on Monday, also an inside day for chip stocks in the semiconductor sector.

Not so much for the DOW. It edged slightly higher. The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on the day, and then the TSX closed up on the day. We’re still dealing with the bearish reversal signal from a couple of weeks ago and looking for a move up to 30.47, and that would take us up to the bottom of that open gap if we can take out the high from a couple of weeks ago. Looking at the S&P sectors, five of the 11 were up on the day, but to notice that energy stocks were up less than 1 % while utilities were down over 1 %. So a little more weakness than strength on Monday. If we go through the Fly Paper channel charts for the different sectors, you’ll notice that only a couple are actually holding the market up at the moment, and that is certainly technology. Typically, when a market is trading above the Fly Paper channel, we consider it in a bull market, and investors typically like to buy the dips. When we’re in the channel, it’s neutral. We call the FlyPaper channel because symbols get stuck to it. You’ll notice that when we saw a weakness in September and October, the technology sector was still stuck to the bottom of the FlyPaper channel.

Even though we were seeing weakness, we couldn’t break away from it. And then eventually, we turned around and started to move back up. Communication services, pretty similar. These are where all the technology stocks and social media stocks that everybody loves to follow. This is where those stocks are located. Then when we start walking through the rest of the sectors, you’ll notice that most of them are either stuck in the FlyPaper channel or are below it. And that’s not a good sign. We need that to change if we’re going to take the rest of the market up with us into year end. But so far, financials are stuck. We’ve got consumer discretionary stuck, consumer staples stuck, not even able to get into the channel at the moment. Then we’ve got industrials, healthcare, looking at the material sector, not looking very pretty, not looking pretty for real estate. Then looking at just utilities, for example, this is how it works. Back in October, this is how the utilities looked. At that time, I would have asked you to look up to the Fly Paper channel looking for a move up to the $62 to $65 area. Notice that’s pointing down at the time.

You can just take your mouse and just move it across, follow the channel down. A month later, here’s what happened. We moved up into the Fly Paper channel, stopped, and are starting to pull back down. Fly Paper channel is still holding us in check for the utility sector. Then looking at the energy sector, which has held the market up in 2023, has started to break down below the Fly Paper channel. That’s not a good sign for the energy sector. It could be a good sign for the inflation picture and for consumers in general if crude oil continues to move lower from here. Looking at the Canadian market, and we did have energy and technology up at the top yesterday. What didn’t work? Well, some of the interest sensitive areas such as real estate and utilities didn’t pan out very well on Monday. Looking at consumer staples, they’ve been the big winner over the past few weeks. And then the infotech, of course, looks very similar to how it looks in the US. Energy stocks are holding the recent lows, unlike the US market. And let’s hope they continue to hold those lows at the 250 level.

What’s not working? Well, materials are not working. And then anything to do with mining? There’s the Global Mining Index, there’s the Global Gold Index. Then looking at financials, they’re just getting into the Fly Paper channel right now, so are the industrials. We’ve got consumer discretionary up at the top of the Fly Paper channel still unable to break out above the highs from a couple of months ago. Then we’ve got healthcare, which traded into the channel and pulled back. We’ve got marijuana stocks that traded up to the channel and pulled back. Then looking at real estate, again, hitting the flypaper channel and starting to pull back. Telecom services have traded up into the FlyPaper channel and are holding the highs from back in September. Those are holding them in check at the moment. It’s not a pretty picture. Even though we had a big rally, it has not been able to cause most of the sectors to be able to break out above the FlyPaper channel to tell us that things are clearing up and the market is becoming more bullish. It is still a handful of stocks that are leading this market higher. That doesn’t mean you can’t trade up into the FlyPaper channel and trade it back down.

But if people are hoping for a year-end rally that’s broadly based, so far, that has not started at all. Okay, folks, everybody’s waiting for those CPI numbers coming at 8:30. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:01:04]: Market Performance and Sector Analysis
[00:02:16]: Technology and Communication Services
[00:03:24]: Utility, Energy, and Canadian Market Analysis
[00:04:37]: Sector Performance and Outlook
[00:05:47]: Conclusion

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, November 14, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value. Commodities are slightly above fair value. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a quiet open on Monday morning. No major economic numbers coming out today, so expect it to be a fairly quiet day. Now, last time we talked, we were coming off a bearish reversal Thursday. And of course, when we look at a bearish reversal day, it can often mark the top for a market. And if we go back looking at the SPY, you can see we had a bearish reversal day there that marked the top, then another one there that marked the top, and another one there that marked the top. But this time around it may not have worked. Remember, these are one day events. They come up, they need to be acknowledged and watched. But we need to see fall through on a bearish reversal day. We need to see fall through to the downside. On a bullish reversal day, we need to see the follow through to the upside. We’re looking to see if we’re going to get that follow through.

You can see the big bar that we had on Thursday and it engulfed the previous day’s bar. We were looking for a breakout of Thursday’s range to tell us which way the market wanted to go next. Oddly enough on Friday, we continue to push higher, putting in a higher high. On Thursday, I was also concerned about the fact that the chips were not participating in last week’s rally. Well, on Friday, what happened? Well, chips actually led the market higher, so that was helpful. And so pushing the Nasdaq up again, we’re making higher highs here, which are a positive sign for the market. At the same time, we are coming up to resistance. And you can see the high from late August there, up there at 380.83, that’s a potential target within the grasp on Monday. And then above that, you can see that 382.81 would be our next target above that level if we can take out the August high. Now, the Nasdaq-100 is market cap weighted. So Apple and Microsoft make up over 20 % of the value of the Nasdaq-100. And then if you go down the list, most of the ones are the ones we look at regularly.

But you see, Broadcom is in there, and that’s a stock we don’t take a look at very often. But there’s what Broadcom is looking like at the moment. Now, at the other end of the scale, Lucid is the least important stock in the Nasdaq-100. Its value is or its weighting in the Nasdaq-100 is less than 1%. So not giving the Lucid group a lot of ability to move the Nasdaq-100 if it doubled, tripled or whatever, nobody would really notice except Lucid shareholders, of course. If we look at the Nasdaq-100 and assume that the majority of the gains are made by the Magnificent Seven, if we take that away, you can see that if we look at an equal weighted version of the Nasdaq-100 that hasn’t really moved that much over the last week and certainly has not taken out the October high. That’s if you give every stock in the Nasdaq-100 equal weighting. Now, the next 100 stocks or the Nasdaq, let’s say 200, is known as the Nasdaq Next Gen ETF. You can see that it really isn’t participating in this week’s rally at all. So once again, it is those big cap tech stocks that everybody’s loved in 2023.

That pattern has not changed. You can also see that in the S&P 500. If we look at the SPY compared to the equal weighted version of the SPY, the rest of the S&P 500 isn’t really participating at the moment. And then, of course, we’ve also pointed out the fact that the Russell 2000, the microcap stocks are not participating. And we’ve also pointed out that in Canada, the small cap and microcap stocks, again, are not participating in this recent rally. Now, as I’ve mentioned before, we’re in a risk-off situation at the moment, and that makes it very, very hard to make money outside of those big cap tech stocks that everybody loves. So you can do the best job at stock picking at the moment and pick out the best stocks in different sectors. If the market’s not interested, they’re not interested and that’s just the way it is at the moment. Now, the VIX is still supportive for higher stock prices. The VIX is still on a weekly sell signal. That won’t change unless the VIX closes above $19.47 this coming Friday on a shorter term basis. If you’re trading the market on Monday, we’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $17.05 on Monday.

And of course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now we’ve talked about the seasonality of the VIX. We’re in the middle of November right now, expecting the VIX to continue to move lower into Christmas. And that would be supportive of a year end rally in the stock market. If we move on to the Canadian market for the week, the TSX actually lost money on the week. What worked? Well, Infotech worked just like in the US, but the rest of the market, not so much. Financial services ended the week up a quarter of a %. Then what didn’t work? Gold stocks rolled over. They’re back on a weekly sell signal. Then we’ve got materials already on a weekly sell signal. No change in trend for marijuana stocks and no change in trend for base metals. Those were all the biggest losers on the TSX for the week. Energy stocks did come down but did not generate a sell signal, so we’ve got a little bit more to go. If we see energy stocks continue to move lower this week, we could end the week on a weekly sell signal. Let’s finish off with the five charts the world’s watching.

And we’ve got the US dollar index in the channel. Once again, it actually ended the week higher. The euro did something similar, ended the week slightly lower. So no change in trend for the major currencies this week. No change in trend for interest rates either. Bond yields were actually up on the week. So both currencies and bond yields are trading in the channel on the weekly charts. Then looking at the price of crude oil, we’re on our second week of a weekly sell signal right now. We held $75 at the close. If that breaks, then $68.75, and then $62.50 would be our next targets to the downside for the price of crude oil. And then last up, we’re looking at the price of gold, which traded down into the channel looking for a close below $1918.50 this coming Friday to give us a weekly sell signal for gold. And as we expected, the $2,000 level was going to act as both mathematical and psychological resistance. And so far, that $2,000 level has held us in check. Yes, we traded above it, but we did not break away from it on a weekly basis.

That’s a bear sign for the price of gold. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Higher highs last week are bullish. Chip stocks moving up but sharply on Friday, that’s bullish. It is a risk off market, though, so it’s very hard to make money in this market as most of the money is focused on a very small percentage of the stocks. Falling commodity prices are good for the US market, but not so helpful for the Canadian market, which is unfortunate. Okay, folks, it looks like we’re going to get a fairly quiet open on Monday morning, and we may see Monday turn out to be an inside day or a day of indecision. Enjoy the rest of your Monday, and the next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and market overview
[00:01:04]: Nasdaq analysis and targets
[00:02:16]: Equal weighted Nasdaq and Nasdaq Next Gen ETF
[00:03:33]: Market participation of big cap tech stocks
[00:04:49]: VIX analysis and market outlook
[00:05:57]: TSX market performance and sector analysis
[00:07:05]: Analysis of major currencies, interest rates, crude oil, and gold

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, November 13, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Speaker 1
Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com, and welcome to Friday morning. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are flat, commodities are mixed with a crude all slightly higher while gold is down another $10 in the pre-market on Friday morning. Well, there’s an old saying in the stock market, never sell on Fridays, and we do have some sell signals that you should probably take, but hopefully you’ll be able to take them at a higher price this morning. Generally, Fridays are not bad days for the stock market. There are certainly usually good days coming into a long weekend. This is not a long weekend. It’s a remembrance day tomorrow. What happened yesterday? Well, we saw Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new highs with Ethereum moving up nearly 7.50 % on the day. It was interesting this time around. The pros took control of Bitcoin before they took control of Ethereum. Ethereum is certainly trying to make up for lost ground and heading right back up to the highs from back earlier this year. Looking at the VIX, the VIX moved up yesterday after making a new low. There’s a reversal in the VIX.

Speaker 1
It could be the start of something. We’ll just have to wait and see. We did see bond sell off yesterday that put upward pressure on bond yields and that caused the stock market to hit resistance and pull back. Now, we’ve been talking about the SPY all week, and unfortunately, yesterday was a bearish day for the SPY. It put in a bearish reversal day at resistance and filled an open gap, which is no longer open. Remember, we were looking to see if the SPY could start closing above 437.50, if it could fill the gap and continue to move higher. The top of the gap was at 438.43. We opened at 438.43 yesterday, traded a couple of pennies higher and then reversed and headed lower. We did put in a higher high, which is bullish. At the same time, we closed below the previous day’s low, which is short term bearish. We’ll have to see which way we go next. Yesterday was a big bar day, and so we’re going to be looking to see which way we close. If we close above yesterday’s high, that would certainly be bullish. If we close below yesterday’s low, that would certainly be bearish.

Speaker 1
There’s a pretty good chance we may see an inside day on Friday for the SPY. Now, the Nasdaq did something similar. It had a bearish reversal day as well. It did close below the previous days low. We were trying to hit 375, got as high as 374.80. Now, as I’ve mentioned many times, you don’t want to have your order in right at 375, you want to put in it a little less. When you look at these profit target lines, what you need to be thinking about is that there’s a wall of sell orders up there. And people are smart enough to know that there’s a wall of sell orders up there and they want to get their order ahead of other people’s orders. So they’re going to put them in a little less than 3:75. So that’s how you build up a wall of resistance and that’s what happened yesterday. Now there’s no reason that we can’t continue to move higher if the market wants to. The market has been higher than that level before, but we’re not seeing that on Friday morning, that’s for sure. So what me worry? Bear for Russell Day in the stock market.

Speaker 1
Yeah, well you know what? The chips have not participated in this rally, and they’re getting pretty close to a sell signal. We saw mid-cap and small-cap, micro-cap stocks all sell off yesterday. So we’ve got the Russell 2000, we’ve got the Russell micro-caps both back on sell signals as of Thursday’s close. And we call that the risk-off trade. That is not a good sign going forward. We were hoping that with the up move in the stock market that people would reach down and deepen their pockets and start buying those mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap stocks. That would give us a sign that the risk on trade was back on and they were really wanting the market to continue to move higher. But that’s not the case at the moment and that probably has a lot to do with the shift in bond yields. Now looking at the Canadian market, we’ve got an early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. We had a bearish reversal day a couple of days ago and have not been able to retest that high. We are trying to get to $30.47 just above that. There’s an open gap and right now we’re not looking, it doesn’t look like we’re going to be dealing with any of that on Friday.

Speaker 1
We’ll be looking at Wednesday’s low and to see if the Canadian market can hold Wednesday’s low. If not, we need to close on Friday below $29.45, certainly not expecting that to happen. Of course, if it doesn’t happen on Friday, that lower channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now, what worked? Well, the top of the performance list yesterday was all Canadian sectors. Energy was the biggest winner. Of course, you can see there’s no change in trend there. No change in trend for materials, no change in trend for financials. Still on a buy signal, making a new high yesterday. Then we had utilities move up. We also had Canadian banks move up. Didn’t make a new high. We’ve got financials, utilities and banks still on buy signals. No change in trend there. Let’s finish off with a quick look at the energy sector. We’ll start off with crude oil, which had an inside day on Thursday. Natural gas continued to move lower. Where did it land? We’ll write on a support at 3.32, closed at 3.33 yesterday. If we break this, 3.13 and 2.93 come into play. Then looking at the Canadian energy sector, we looked at this chart a couple of seconds ago.

Speaker 1
We’re still on a sell signal here, but you can see the market is trying to hold $16 on this particular ETF. It’ll be quite a tell if we start breaking through that $16 level. Of course, if the energy sector is falling, you can make money by buying the Bear, Horizon Beta Pro ETF, which is on a buy signal right now. Looking at individual stocks, Baytech on a sell signal, no change there. Crescent Point, for some reason the market really does not like Crescent Point at the moment. They like Athabasca Oil Sands a lot better. It is still on a sell signal, but you can see compared to the other energy stocks, including Whitecap, the Athabasca is certainly standing out at the moment. It is still moving down. There’s no change in trend here. It was an inside day on Thursday, and then Whitecap, which made a new closing low on Thursday, not looking very healthy at the moment, a series of lower highs and lower lows. Now, as we know, every sector gets its chance and there’s a time to own energy stocks and a time not to own energy stocks. Right now is not the time to own energy stocks.

Speaker 1
One last chart this morning out of those Big Cap seven technology stocks we’ve been following. We’ve noted Tesla did not really participate in the rally so far and yesterday it proved it by generating a sell signal. So once again, we’ve gone from being long Tesla to being short Tesla. Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation. That’s all from me for this week. Have a great day, have a great weekend, and hopefully you’ll get some time to remember those who came before us and served. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday.

[00:00:00]: Market overview
[00:01:05]: SPY analysis
[00:02:11]: Nasdaq performance
[00:03:11]: Russell Sell Signal
[00:04:18]: Canadian market update
[00:05:31]: Bullboards Energy sector review
[00:06:37]: Tesla Sell Signal

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, November 10, 2023