Author: admin

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, and it is fairly early, stock index futures and commodities are trading slightly below fair value. We’re even seeing a pullback in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of them making new highs last week. Bitcoin’s next weekly target is 50,000.

For Ethereum, its next weekly target is 25,000. In this presentation, we’re mostly going to be looking at weekly charts with the odd daily chart thrown in. It wasn’t that long ago, in fact, it was six weeks ago that we were ending our six weeks of fear. And the VIX has been on a sell signal for the last six weeks. That’s supportive for higher stock prices on a long term basis.

That would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close above $17.32. Then, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see we’ve been trading sideways for the last couple of weeks. We’re down at four year lows. We’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 13.48 on Monday. Now, over the past couple of weeks, the US Dollar index has been falling.

That’s been supportive for higher stock prices and a higher gold price, but that turned around this week and the US dollar index moved up. And we saw the big reversal in the price of gold. Gold ran up to our 2125 target and quickly reversed. So if you had an order in up there, congratulations, you got filled. Now we’re looking to see if gold is going to hold 2000 on a short term basis.

Looking at the daily charts, you can see that we broke the current uptrend line and we’re back on a daily sell signal as of Friday’s close. Now, as I mentioned, 2,000 is going to be a big psychological area of support. We are trading lower this morning, but I don’t think we’ve traded down to 2,000 just yet. Looking at a daily chart of the GDX and the XGD, both are back on sell signals as of Friday’s close. Now, we had several opportunities to take money off the table on both of those ETFs and Most of the major gold stocks.

So if you’re getting kicked out this morning at the open, you have locked in some profits along the way and you should have had a profitable trade. Looking at the bonds, bonds continued to move higher last week and bond yields continue to move lower. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. What’s not supportive? Well, in the US, lower energy costs are going to help inflation, they’re going to help the Fed and help the overall consumer and possibly the US stock market, but it’s not going to help the Canadian stock market at all.

So we saw crude oil continue to move lower, down nearly 4%. Gasoline in the US was down over 3%. That’s good for the consumer and the overall economy. And then we’ve got natural gas down nearly 8% on the week. So still no joy for natural gas.

And then looking at energy stocks in Canada, which has a more volatile energy sector than the US, energy stocks were down nearly 6%. In the US, they were down over 3%. Looking at the major US indices, the Dow had a fairly quiet week. So did the S&P 500, so did the Nasdaq. So no major changes last week.

Some sector rotation going on, but no major pullbacks for the Nasdaq Next Generation. So the next hundred stocks, we had a small pullback, still closing above $25, so nothing to worry about there. Then we had Semiconductors up nicely on the week, making a new high for this move that had a lot to do with AMD, which was up over 6% on the week. Then looking at the Russell 2000 and the Russell Micro Caps, both were up on the week. So that’s a little bit of sector rotation and watching the rally broaden out a bit.

That could be healthy for the market going forward. Next up, let’s take a look at the Canadian market. And unfortunately with commodity prices pulling back, so did the TSX and the TSX 60. We’re not that far away from retesting the 2023 highs. But if commodity prices aren’t going to help right now, that might not be in the cards for the month of December.

That’s also true for the TSX 60. And then small cap and micro cap stocks both pulled back on the week on the back of those falling commodity prices. Now financials continued to move higher, as did the Canadian banks. And of course that’s very supportive for the overall Canadian stock market. Industrials had a small pullback while Infotech continued to move higher on the back of Bitfarms, which was up over 56% for the week.

That’s a pretty incredible move for that stock BlackBerry was up nearly 8%. Quarter Hill was up nearly 8%. And then the big elephant in the room was Shopify, which on the week was down 1.13%. And we traded in the channel for the whole week. We dipped through the lower channel line on Thursday, then recovered on Friday.

On Monday, we’re looking for a close below $96..34 If you’re following Shopify on the TSX now. Telecom stocks moved up this week. Cogeco Cable was the big winner, up nearly 8%. Still on a weekly sell signal.

No change there. The big winner in the sector over the past month has been Rogers, which is up another 2.46% for the week. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. It’s still looking pretty good that we’re going to finish the year positively. We’re going to be watching that daily VIX very closely.

Looking at the CNN fear and greed index, we are certainly seeing some greed right now, but nothing extreme. That doesn’t mean we can’t have some tax loss selling going into year end and we may get some sort of pullback here. But we’re still looking pretty positive as we come up to the Christmas holidays. If you’ve got some extra time and you’re looking for something to do, why not consider donating blood around the Christmas holidays? There’s more demand than ever for blood and if you’ve got the time, everybody would really appreciate it if you could consider donating blood.

Okay, folks, thank you very much for your time and attention. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
0:00 – Stock Market Timing Intro
0:25 – Analyzing Weekly Stock Charts
1:03 – Impact of US Dollar Index
2:12 – Bond Market Insights
2:22 – Energy Sector Analysis
3:03 – Overview of Major US Indices
3:47 – Canadian Market Trends
4:51 – Shopify Stock Review
5:22 – Conclusion

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, December 11, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet. Both the stock index, futures, and commodities are trading right around fair value. We are waiting for employment numbers to come out at 8:30 this morning, and they could certainly add to the premarket volatility. Now looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a daily sell signal that’s supportive for higher stock prices. That would change on Thursday with a close of above 13.60. Now the Nasdaq did end Wednesday on a daily sell signal, and that had something to do with Big Cap Tech stocks like Apple and Amazon pulling back on Wednesday, but it had a lot more to do with energy stocks, which were down sharply. You can see Constellation Energy down nearly five % on the day. Energy stocks continued to move lower on Wednesday on the back of lower crude oil and natural gas prices. If we look at the iShares for the TSX Energy Sector, we were looking to see if support at 16 would hold. As you can see, yesterday, we crashed right through that. We also made lower lows for U.S.

Energy stocks on Wednesday. Now looking at the TSX, it got pulled down with weakness in energy stocks and we made an outside reversal on Wednesday. We are one day away from a new daily sell signal if the market wants to continue lower from here. Now last week, we were looking at the energy bullboard and looking at the stocks that people were following. We see Baytech making a new low for this move. We see Crescent Point making a new low and Athabasca making a new low. We do have Valeura Energy back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close, joining the big caps, Cenovus Energy, and Suncor, which were down again yesterday with Suncor down over five and a half %, which is quite a large move for that stock. Okay, that’s all that I wanted to cover this morning. We’re waiting to see those employment numbers come out. Otherwise, the major indices for the most part are still on buy signals, and we’ve had no major sign of weakness so far. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

0:00 – Pre-Market Analysis
0:21 – VIX Volatility Index
0:31 – Nasdaq Composite Insights
0:50 – Energy Sector Overview
1:13 – TSX Market Update
1:59 – Top Energy Stocks
2:13 – Closing Thoughts

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, December 7, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are barely above fair value. We do have some economic numbers coming out this morning, and then later in the morning, we have energy inventories. Bitcoin and Ethereum are in the news this morning as they both hit new highs. And of course, the corresponding ETFs are also hitting new highs for this move. Looking at the VIX for the S&P 500, we’re looking for a close above 13.67 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. And for the VIX for the Nasdaq, it’s traded above the upper channel line for the past two days, but has not closed above it. We’re looking for a close above 17.26 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. Looking at the major index ETFs from Tuesday’s trading action, small pullback in the DOW, small pullback in the S&P 500, and a gain for the NASDAQ 100. So the NASDAQ back up into the middle of the channel, HIP, looking for a close for the triple Qs below $385.68 on Wednesday. That would give us a sell signal for the NASDAQ 100.

Now looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, a small gain on Tuesday. It didn’t have much to do with gold and gold stocks, which pulled back again. Gold traded down to the lower channel line. A close below $2,027.40 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. Silver actually ended Tuesday on a sell signal. Now, both those commodities are trading up slightly in the premarket, not enough to change either trend. Then looking at the ETFs, the GLD traded down to the lower channel line yesterday, while the SLV generate a sell signal. Then looking at the stocks themselves, the GDX closed at the upper channel line, as did the XGD. Then the biggest loser was Silver stocks, still closing above the upper channel line and no change in trend for any of those stock ETFs. Now looking at crude oil, new closing low for this move on Tuesday, natural gas traded slightly higher. That’s not going to help energy stocks on either side of the border. Looking at the Magnificent Eight, well, four of the eight stocks are still on buy signals. That includes Amazon, Apple, which really led the market higher on Tuesday. Then we’ve got Shopify on both sides of the border, and Tesla.

Those four stocks are still on buy signals at the moment.

Let’s finish off this morning’s

presentation, taking a look at the StockHouse Bullboards for the Industrial sector. Looking at the industrial index itself, it is on a buy signal right now, had a big pop last Friday, and hasn’t seen a lot of follow-through since then. Looking at Pyrogenesis, we’re still on a sell signal here that would change on Wednesday with a close above 50 cents. Then looking at Bombardier, we’re still on a sell signal that would change on Wednesday with a close above $60.17, sense. Then looking at Exro Technologies, we’re on a buy signal right now, but trading in the channel, so a close below $1.36 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. It does not look like the pros want to take control at the moment, so I’m not sure how long this buy signal will hold. Then looking at Xtract One Technologies, we are back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close.

Now, scanning through the TSX Industrial’s Index, there are some stocks that are doing well at the moment. Stantec, Thomson Reuters, and Russell Metals are all doing well coming into Wednesday’s trading action. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a quiet open on Wednesday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice, is on Thursday morning.

0:00 – Stock Market Timing Introduction
0:17 – VIX Volatility Index Analysis
0:47 – Major Index ETFs Overview
1:10 – Trading Commodities Insight
2:10 – Magnificent 8 Stocks Breakdown
2:30 – Stock Market Bullboards Strategy
3:39 – Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are below fair value, being led lower by the Nasdaq. Now, we don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning, so things should be fairly quiet at 9:30, even though we are going to see a little selling. Looking at the VIX, The VIX traded up to the upper channel line once again on Monday, looking for a close above 13.70. Now, the VIX for the Nasdaq traded above the upper channel line and closed right on the upper channel line, so close above 17.26 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday. You’re seeing a little more weakness in the Nasdaq when just looking at the VIX itself. Now, the US dollar index has been up over the past couple of days, and that could be negative for stocks if this trend continues. So far, we’ve seen a little weakness in a couple of areas and a lot of sector rotation. Remember, we were talking about the fact that money is starting to come back into those mid-cap, small-cap stocks, and we certainly saw that on Friday and on Monday.

Looking at the DOW, it had an inside day on Monday being led higher by 3M. 3m led the market higher, I think, two days last week. A lot of interest in 3M over the past month. Then looking at the S&P 500, down a little over half a %, still trading and closing above the upper channel line. We dipped into the channel yesterday looking for a close below 452.19 on Tuesday. That could happen. The big winner on the S&P 500 on Monday was Bath and Bodyworks, up over 8%. One of the stocks that got kicked out of the S&P 500, Alaska Airlines announced a takeover and it was down over 14 % on the day. Then looking at the Nasdaq, we dipped below the lower channel line yesterday, held the channel line going into the close. Certainly, there’s a strong likelihood we’re going to get a sell signal in the Nasdaq on Tuesday with the close below 385.84. The big loser on the Nasdaq-100 was Sirius XM. It was down over 6% on the day. Then Microsoft joined some of the other magnificent eight stocks. It is back on a sell signal as of the day’s close.

Then looking at nVidIA, nVidIA bounced off the 450 level. Let’s see if it can hold that on Tuesday. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX-60, we’re down slightly on the day. Speaking of the Magnificent Eight stocks, Shopify still on a buy signal. That would change on Tuesday with a close below 95.85. The big winner on the TSX 60 was Cameco, while the big winner on the TSX Composite was Tillray, up over 7% on the day. Now, what didn’t work on Monday, and it happened a lot in the pre-market, was gold. Gold had a huge reversal day yesterday, making a new high for this move, then closing below the previous day’s low. That is very bearish, but it hasn’t been felt throughout the market. We did run up and hit our next price target of 2125. Congratulations if you had an order and up there, it got filled yesterday. If you look at the GLD, you won’t see as much volatility because the GLD, of course, doesn’t start trading until 9:30. We did trade lower yesterday, looking for a close on Tuesday below 186.18. Then if you look at the gold stocks and the silver stocks, they didn’t get hit too hard yesterday.

We’re still above the upper channel line for the GDX and the XGD. You can see the huge swing in the price of silver, just like gold. We certainly closed below the previous days low. A close below 24.54 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. Looking at the silver ETF, again, not as much volatility to the upside, but we certainly closed sharply lower. Looking for a close on Tuesday below 22.25, silver stocks actually ended the day with an inside day. So gold and silver stock investors are holding up much better than the precious metals themselves. Now, we’ve talked about sector rotation and the fact that the rally was broadening out into mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap stocks. And that continued on Monday with the iShares for the Russell 2000 moving up and the iShares for the Micro-cap sector moving up. Now, we do not have a lot of stocks from the Russell 2000. We have probably no stocks from the Russell’s micro-cap index in our database. There are a handful of stocks from the Russell 2000 such as Carvana and Beyond Meat. Both saw money go in last week and certainly yesterday as well. So money is moving into the really the weakest part of the market for 2023, and I believe it’s coming out of those big cap tech stocks.

So keep an eye on those. I would prefer to just play the ETFs because there’s a lot less risk on the downside with mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap stocks. Certainly, most of them don’t make any money and can get toppled with just a simple press release. I’d rather play the ETFs in those sectors than the stocks themselves, but that’s just me. Now, the money that came out of gold and silver on Monday, where did it go? Well, it might have gone into Bitcoin and Ethereum, both gapping higher on Monday. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. We’re watching the VIX. It could be a buy signal on Tuesday. We’re watching the US dollar index. If both of those move higher, we could see the stock market continue to move lower. Is that surprising? Well, not for the first week of December. We’ve had a great run in November looking to work off some of that overbought condition. Some money managers are looking to move money around to make themselves look better. If they put money in Carvana and Beyond Meat, well, they certainly look better this morning than they did a couple of weeks ago. We’ll just have to wait and see how that works out.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Pre-market analysis and market outlook
[00:01:04]: Market performance and stock movements
[00:02:16]: Focus on specific stocks and market signals
[00:03:29]: Analysis of precious metals and ETFs
[00:04:56]: Sector rotation and investment strategy
[00:06:06]: Conclusion and outlook

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. So so far it looks like the market wants to do a little selling at the open on Monday morning. And that’s not surprising. We had an amazing week last week.

The month end has come and gone. And so to see a little selling this week wouldn’t be that’s surprising. In the pre market this morning, Uber is trading higher. The reason for that is it’s being added to the S&P 500. Here’s what the weekly chart of Uber looks like.

Here’s the weekly chart of the stock it’s replacing. Looks like, and as we always say, always be upgrading. That’s why the stock market indices continue to move higher over time. Now, we’re going to be looking at a lot of weekly charts. We’ll flip back to a couple of daily charts, but for the most part, we’re looking at weekly charts.

In this presentation, the VIX actually closed slightly higher on the week, really had an inside week. We’re going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $17.96 this coming Friday. Looking at a short term view of the VIX, we’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $13.79 on Monday. Now, if it doesn’t close above that level, then that upper channel is going to continue to move lower. We’re going to have trouble seeing the VIX break down from here.

We are down to long term support at the 12.50 level. This is where we bottomed in September and the market started to pull back from that point. We’re not looking for a huge pullback here. If we look at the daily Fly Paper Channel chart, you can see in the summer, we spiked up to the Fly Paper channel and came right back down. I’m expecting something like that to happen over the next two weeks in early December here before we go into the rest of the year end rally.

But we’ll just have to wait and see. Looking at a weekly chart of the US. Dollar index, it closed slightly lower on the week after making a new low. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. Bond prices continued to move up and bond yields continued to move lower last week.

That’s supportive for higher stock prices. Crude oil was down on the week. That helps the inflation picture. That helps bond yields continue to move lower. At the present time, it’s not so helpful for the Canadian stock market.

Natural gas was down over 6% on the week, so no change in trend there. Now here’s something interesting. Gold was up sharply on the week and it went into the weekend moving up towards that 2125 level. Now overnight, there was a huge spike in the price of gold and then it completely evaporated. And we’re actually trading slightly lower in the pre market at the time of this recording.

So we actually traded up over 2125 overnight and then came right back down. So technically gold might have peaked overnight. We’ll just have to wait and see how the market digests that move over the next couple of days. For silver, we’re looking for a move up to 26.56 for our next weekly price target. Now the TSX moved up nicely.

It’s heading up to long term resistance up at the 20,625 level. We’ll have to see how the market reacts to that if we can push through it or not. The Dow certainly has pushed through resistance and is starting to trade above our next mathematical price target. We haven’t broken away from it, we’ve just been able to trade above it. Looking at the S&P 500, we still got a ways to go before we get to our next weekly target.

But we have come up to our daily target and that’s where we peaked out back in the summer. So looking to see if we can break through the 4609.38 level and then looking at the Nasdaq 100, we’re pretty well unchanged on the week, and we’ve come up just below resistance at 16,250. Similar situation for the Nasdaq composite at 14,375. Now, looking at a daily chart of the Russell 2000, we had a huge update on Friday which took us up over the resistance we’ve been following for the last couple of weeks. That’s bullish for the market.

It’s telling us that the rally is starting to broaden out, so we’ll look to see if that can continue. Our next target on both the daily and weekly chart is 1875. For the Russell 2000, we also saw the Nasdaq Next Generation stocks also break out on Friday and break out above the $25 level. We were up nearly 2% on the day. So that’s bullish for the overall stock market.

Looking at the TSX and we’re looking at weekly charts here, you can see mid cap stocks were up back on a weekly buy signal, small cap stocks are back on a weekly buy signal, and the micro cap stocks in the Venture exchange were also up on the week, ending the week on a weekly buy signal. So that’s bullish for the market that the rally is starting to broaden out. What might happen between now and year end is we might see some sector rotation in which money comes out of those big cap tech stocks and goes into the undervalued sectors of the market. We’ll just have to wait and see if that happens. Certainly month end has come and gone, so that bullish bias is no longer with us.

Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a pullback, especially in those big cap tech stocks over the next week or so before the year end rally gets going. Once again, enjoy the rest of your day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Market Overview
[00:00:36]: Uber’s Addition to S&P
[00:01:26]: VIX Analysis and Market Outlook
[00:02:12]: Impact of Dollar Index and Bond Yields
[00:02:53]: Gold and Silver Price Analysis
[00:03:16]: TSX and Dow Market Update
[00:03:44]: S&P and Nasdaq Analysis
[00:04:21]: Russell 2000 and Next Generation Stocks
[00:04:46]: Broadening Market Rally and Sector Rotation
[00:05:29]: Closing Remarks

Stephen Whiteside

TheUpTrend.com

Monday, December 4, 2023

Happy Friday, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are mixed at the moment, so we may see a little selling at the open on Friday morning. Going into next week, I wouldn’t be surprised if we did see some profit taking and pullback. We are looking at the Dow here that had a huge up day on Thursday on the back of Salesforce, which was up over nine % on the day. That’s a huge move for a Dow 30 stock. The VIX for the S&P 500 is still on a sell signal. That’s supported for higher stock prices. The VIX for the Nasdaq is still on a sell signal. Notice we pulled up into the channel yesterday. A close above 17:41 would change things on Friday. And the VIX for the Russell 2000 also traded up to the upper channel line yesterday, looking for a close on Friday above 20.93. Buy signals in the VIX means that options traders are willing to pay more premium to buy options to hedge their positions. We know that they’re getting defensive if we see the premiums start to rise.

Now, in the Canadian market, bank stocks have come back sharply over the past couple of days. We’ve got the bank index back on a buy signal, joining the financials back on a buy signal on Wednesday. Looking at the Bank of Montreal, we’re back on a buy signal. We’re back on a buy signal for the bank in Nova Scotia. CIBC had a huge update yesterday, up over 5% on the day. Still waiting for the National Bank, the Royal Bank, back on a buy signal as of Thursday. Still waiting for the TD Bank, looking for a close on Friday above $83.69. Next up, let’s take a look at the Magnificent Eight Stocks. They’ve really led this market higher over the past month, and we can see the Nasdaq starting to pull back. Some of them have already generated sell signals, so wouldn’t be surprised if the market took a break next week and we saw a pullback. We traded down to the lower channel line yesterday for the triple queues looking for a close on Friday below 385.56. Then looking at Alphabet, you can see the early warning signal at the top of the Panic Zone charts. We ran up to 140.63 and have pulled back.

We are back on a cell signal as of Thursday’s close. You can also see that that open gap there has now been filled, so that is no longer in play. Then looking at Amazon, Amazon traded through several early warning signals. We’re still projecting higher here. We did not get to 150 and we’re starting to pull back into the channel. Close on Friday below 144.03 would give us a sell signal for Amazon. Looking at Apple, early warning signal at the top of the screen, we did not get to 193.75. We had a bearish reversal day a few days ago. Then we had a bullish reversal day yesterday. It was very weak, bullish reversal day. We did not close above the previous day’s high. We are bouncing off the lower channel line. A close below that line at 188.32 on Friday would give us a new cell signal for Apple. Looking at Meta, you can see the early warning signals at the top of the screen. 343.75 acted as resistance, and now we’re back on a cell signal as of Thursday’s close. Then looking at Microsoft, the best performer of this group, we’ve traded through several early warning signals up there.

We had a bearish reversal signal on Wednesday. On Thursday, we closed higher. That signal is still in play, but has not been confirmed just yet. We’ve had lots of opportunities to take money off the table. Anytime that you’re following a stock for any length of time, you always want to know not only the daily price targets, but the weekly price targets. That’s going to tell you where the major areas of support and resistance are. Looking at Microsoft on Friday, we’re still closing above the upper channel line. A close below 372.59 on Friday would give us a sell signal from Microsoft. Then looking at NVIDIA, early warning signals at the top of the screen, 500 still acting as resistance. Now we’ve moved down two lines and we’re back on a sell signal. We’ve been there for a couple of days now. Then looking at Shopify, and we’ll look at Shopify on both sides of the border, the stock has been very strong and traded through several early warning signals. Barish reversal day on Wednesday, fall through to the downside on Thursday. In New York, we’re looking for a close below 68.91. In Toronto, we hit $100 and stopped.

In Toronto, we’re looking for a close below 94.84. Last up, Tesla, the weakest of the group. You can see that we’ve really been stuck in the open gap for a while now, which, of course, is now closed. You can see a lot of trading activity within the gap here. We traded up to 250. We’ve started to pull back. If we can take 250 out, then 265.63 would be our next target. A bearish reversal signal on Wednesday fall through to the downside on Thursday, looking for a close on Friday below 231.70. Now, all of the lower channel line numbers that I quoted you are only for today. Of course, this lower channel line is going to continue to move lower daily if we do not close below it on Friday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Just wanted to give an update on those stocks, let you know some of them have already generated sell signals. So it wouldn’t be surprised if we see a pullback in the market next week. We’ve had a great November. Hopefully, you’ve had a chance to lock in some profits along the way. Have a great day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

[00:00:00]: Pre-market analysis

[00:01:04]: Canadian market update

[00:02:12]: Tech stocks assessment

[00:03:20]: Microsoft performance

[00:04:29]: Shopify analysis

[00:05:31]: Closing remarks

Stephen Whiteside

TheUpTrend.com

Friday, December 1, 2023

[00:00:00]: Market analysis and premarket overview
[00:01:08]: DOW and S&P performance
[00:02:15]: Russell and Semiconductor analysis
[00:03:24]: Canadian market and TSX 60 analysis
[00:04:29]: Financials analysis and bank earnings
[00:05:17]: Market outlook and month-end considerations

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are up across the board. So far, it looks like the market wants to do some buying. But we do have economic numbers coming out at 8:30, including jobless claims. And of course, they can add to the premarket volatility. Well, yesterday, the VIX closed up a little bit. It is still trading below the lower channel line. And that, of course, is bullish for stocks. Our view of the short term direction of the market would change on Thursday if the VIX were to close above $14.06. Now, the US dollar index is still on a sell signal, no change. That is supportive for higher stock prices. Bond prices continue to move higher on Wednesday. That put pressure on bond yields. And of course, that is supportive for higher stock prices. Now, crude oil moved up yesterday. It is back on a buy signal. Whether you’re trading the futures contract or the USO ETF, that can help the Canadian market. You can see it also put upward pressure on gasoline, which is not good for the consumer.

Gas prices have been falling for a while now and they could start to turn around if we get some upward momentum in crude oil. It was good for the Canadian market. Energy stocks were up on the day just less than one %, while U. S. Energy stocks were down just under three quarters of a % for the day. Now, the DOW put in a new high yesterday and reversed, giving us a bearish reversal signal. But two things didn’t happen for the DOW. The DOW actually closed higher on the day and certainly didn’t close below the previous days low. Now, what worked on the DOW? Well, the biggest winner was Salesforce followed by Intel and then Nike. Those were the big winners on the DOW. Like the DOW, the S&P 500 put in a bearish reversal day, but did not close below the previous day’s low, so not overly concerned about that. I have the biggest winners on the S&P 500, NetApp, followed by General Motors, followed by Charles Schwab. Then looking at the Nasdaq-100, again, bearish reversal signal, but we did not close below the previous days low. The biggest winners were Workday, followed by CrowdStrike, followed by Illumina.

And this stock is one of the dogs of the Nasdaq, and it’s down over 60 % on the year, not something I would want to chase. And then we’ve been following some indexes and ETFs to see if the market was going to broaden out. We would like the Russell 2000 to participate more. It has certainly been on a buy signal and has moved up and is stuck at the 181.25 level. This is a significant level for the Russell 2000. And if we look at a weekly chart, and we’ve talked about this many times, we’re stuck in a range, $200 was the top of the range in 2023 and $160.25 has been the bottom. Where are we right now? Well, we’re right in the exact middle of that range, looking to see if we can move up from here. That would be a bullish sign for the overall market. We’re also watching semiconductors closely. They’re stuck at 200. We traded above that level yesterday, got as high as 204, ended the day back down at the $200 level, just closing slightly above it at $200.72. And then we’re also watching the next generation Nasdaq stocks, they’re stuck at 25.

We traded above it yesterday before pulling back. So the Russell 2000, semiconductors, sixth generation tech stocks, we’d like to see all of these start breaking out above resistance. That would be a good sign going forward. Then looking at the Canadian market, the IShares for the TSX 60 moved up into the channel. A close above $30.63 would get us back on a buy signal. We saw Brookfield Asset Management lead the TSX 60 higher on Wednesday followed by Bank of Nova Scotia. So tremendous amount of regret here. We gap lower on Tuesday and said, hey, everything we thought about the stock on Tuesday was wrong and now we’re moving back up. So looking for a close above $60.23 on Thursday to give us a buy signal for the bank in Nova Scotia. Brookfield was the next big winner on the TSX 60. Let’s broaden things out. Look at the TSX itself. Osisko Mining was the big winner, followed by Filo, followed by West Dome. Those were the big winners on the TSX. Let’s finish off looking at financials. We’ve got a lot of bank earnings this week and the bank index has come back up over the last couple of days.

So we’re sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal. The TSX financials move back up. They are back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. We were looking for a close above 352.58. We closed at 352.75. In the US, of course, we’ve watched the financials move up as well. It hasn’t been the banks. It’s been more the broker, dealers and insurance companies have been leading the financials higher. There’s the S&P bank ETF making a new high for this move. And there’s the regional bank. So not performing as well as insurance companies and broker dealers, but they’re certainly on buy signals. And both of the banks and the regional banks made new highs for this move on Wednesday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

We’re coming into month end.

The market doesn’t usually like to.

Fight against the automatic money that comes in around the month end, so we usually don’t see a major pullback at this time. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the next couple of days were positive going into the weekend.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. In the pre market this morning stock index futures and commodities are trading above fair value. So so far it looks like we’re going to see some buying at the open on Wednesday morning. We do have economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that could sway the market.

So we’ll just have to wait and see. We still have the VIX on a sell signal that support of for higher stock prices that would change on Wednesday if we were to close above $14.20. Now we’ve got the Dow trading up at summer highs, we’ve got the S&P 500 trading up at summer highs and we’ve got the Nasdaq trading up at summer highs. So this is a time and place where we could take a break. We’ve got the TSX pulling back a bit this week and you can see that we moved up and filled an open gap and started to pull back from there and so we have not been able to get back up to the summer highs.

Of course the US market has those big cap technology stocks. The Canadian market is much more commodity focused and so the selling in energy stocks have not helped and now we’re getting some selling in the banking sector. So we are expecting a little bit of a pullback here. If we look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 20 day moving average on the S&P 500 you can see that we’re currently up at the top of the range and this is where the market either pulls back or takes a break. I think we’re going to have a little bit of a pullback in the first week of December.

We’ll just have to wait and see. If we look at the percentage of stocks on the S&P 500 currently trading above their 200 day moving average. You can see we moved up to our first target and we talked about this a couple of weeks ago that we may be able to move up to this level and this is the time and place where we may see the market pull back. But given the seasonality of the time of the year we are looking for a continued move higher and you can see that the market has pulled up to those levels before. So what we’re talking about here is we’re looking for the market rally to broaden out.

We’ve talked a lot about that. We’ve talked about the semiconductors and micro cap stocks, small cap stocks. We’re looking for those to move up as well as those big cap technology stocks that have been pulling the market higher and so that’s what we’re waiting for. But wouldn’t be surprised if we see a little pullback in the first week of December and of course we’re expecting to see more money come into the market this week heading into month end. Now bonds continue to move higher.

That’s putting downward pressure on bond yields. That’s supportive for higher stock prices, and it may be supportive for higher precious metals prices. As the price of gold made a new high for this move, as did the price of silver. Silver is coming up to those summer highs right now. The best performing stock on the S&P 500 yesterday was newmont.

If we go back to last week, you can see we were looking up two lines 39.06 and 40.63. Well, both of those targets were hit yesterday. So if you had orders in at either of those two, they got filled on Tuesday. Now we’re looking up, seeing if we can break out above the September high up to 40 219. And the best performing stock on the TSX 60 on Tuesday was Barrick up 4.97% and hit our next target of 23.44.

Our next target to the upside is 24.22. And so we’ve got a new high for this move, for GDX, for the XGD, and for the SIL. So gold and silver stock continuing to move higher on Tuesday. Okay, folks, that is all that I wanted to cover this morning. Looks like the market wants to continue to move higher on Wednesday.

Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction to Wednesday Morning Market Update
[00:00:20]: Market Analysis and Pre-Market Trends
[00:00:58]: Focus on Canadian Market and Potential Pullback
[00:01:31]: Analysis of S&P Stocks Trading Above 20-Day Moving Average
[00:02:09]: Expectations for Market Rally to Broaden Out
[00:02:38]: Impact of Bond Yields on Stock and Precious Metals Prices
[00:02:59]: Performance of Specific Stocks in S&P and TSX 60
[00:03:29]: Continued Movement of Gold and Silver Stocks
[00:03:51]: Conclusion and Market Outlook for Wednesday

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are trading just below fair value. Now, looking at the VIX, we’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $14.33 on Tuesday. Let’s start off this morning’s presentation, taking a look at the Canadian market.

And in the news this morning, we’ve got Bank of Nova Scotia out with earnings. It is trading lower in the pre market. And you can see we’ve had some weakness in the Bank of Nova Scotia over the last couple of days. We’re looking for a close on Tuesday below 59 90. Now all the major Canadian banks are reporting this week.

And you can see the TD Bank has had some weakness over the past couple of days. And on Tuesday, we’re looking for a close below $82.99 to give us a sell signal. Now, the Ishares for the TSX 60 ended Monday on a sell signal closing just below the lower channel line. And what caused that? Well, it was the energy sector was the biggest loser on Monday, crude oil traded lower.

It is, of course, still on a sell signal. That would change on Tuesday with a close for crude oil above $77.98. No joy for natural gas. Making a new low on Monday. And then looking at the Ishares for the TSX Energy Index, you can see we’re still trading above the $16 level, and that is currently acting as support.

Looking at US energy stocks, we’re trading in the channel. There’s a lot more interest in the US for energy stocks right now. You can see the pros have almost taken control north of the border.

It certainly doesn’t look like the pros want to take control of the energy sector at this particular time. Now, while energy stocks didn’t work well, precious metals did work on Monday, with gold moving up to the previous high from a couple of weeks ago, while silver is heading towards the high from back in August. And so when we look at the gold stocks, you can see on the XGD, we moved up 1.93% yesterday. The GDX in the US. Was up 1.6%, and then we had silver stocks up 1.76%.

And again, silver and silver stocks leading the precious metals higher at the moment. Looking at the US. Market, it was very quiet yesterday for the S&P 500 and for the Nasdaq 100. Looking at the next gen Nasdaq stocks, they’re still stuck at $25. It would be nice if we could start breaking out above that level.

And we’ve got semiconductors still stuck at $200. And again, we’re looking to see if we can break out of these areas of resistance. Speaking of resistance, looking at US. Banks, you can see that the bottom of the gap there has been acting as resistance. When we look at Regional Banks.

It’s our mathematical target of 45.31 that’s holding us in check. We’re trying to hold support at 43.75. If that breaks, then we imagine that we’d head back down to try to fill this open gap. What worked yesterday? Well, on the Dow it was 3M followed by the Travelers companies.

And of course, we’ve noted insurance stocks have been outperforming bank stocks over the past few months. Okay folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. Certainly not surprised to see a little bit of weakness here. It’s kind of a US thanksgiving hangover and not expecting too many things to break hard this week. And as we come into month end, wouldn’t be surprised to see some buying start once again.

Have a great day folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Market analysis and VIX prediction
[00:00:24]: Canadian Banks and market signals
[00:01:07]: Energy sector and crude oil analysis
[00:01:41]: Precious metals and stocks performance
[00:02:36]: US market overview and resistance levels
[00:03:11]: 3M and The Travelers Companies
[00:03:37]: Conclusion and outlook

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, November 28, 2023

good morning everyone and welcome to Monday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.Com in the pre market this morning things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any economic numbers coming out in the pre market this morning. We do have home sales coming out later this morning but so far stock index futures are slightly below fair value while commodities are mixed.

Crude oil is trading slightly lower while gold is up another $10 in the pre market market on Monday morning. Well so far for the month of November things have been very bullish. We’ve got the S&P 500, SPY ETF up 8.87%, the triple Q’s for the Nasdaq 100 are up a tick over 11% and the Ishares for the TSX 60 are up 6.19% for the month of November. So far the biggest winners in November have been US Homebuilders in the US up over 15% and US Regional Banks up just under 12% for the month. Of course there’s no change in trend there for the regional banks.

Looking at the VIX, the weekly VIX chart was down another nearly 10% on the week. And so we’re going to remain long term bullish on the stock market as long as the VIX does not close above $18.58 this coming Friday. Now if you’re watching the market on Monday, we’re going to remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.56 on Monday. And of course if that doesn’t happen on Monday that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Looking at the seasonality chart of the VIX for the last week of November, the VIX actually historically has moved up, which means there’s been a little downward pressure on the stock market for the next couple of days.

Of course we’re coming into month end and month end typically has a bullish bias as the market prepares for automatic money to hit the market over the month end period. Now for some people they’re looking at the activity we’re seeing in November as the Year End Rally. Well we are looking for it to continue. And for it to continue we’ve got a little checklist. We were looking for the market to make higher highs, we were looking for the chips to move higher.

We are also looking for the risk off market to come back. That means those small and micro cap stocks and we were looking for falling commodity prices which are bullish for the US market, but not necessarily bullish for the Canadian market as so much of our market is tied up in commodity related stocks. So starting off looking at those higher highs, we have not seen a higher high for Alphabet so far. We have for Amazon and Apple for Meta. For Microsoft.

Microsoft’s been on quite a tear since the start of October. Nvidia actually ended Friday on a sell signal. We closed just below the lower channel line. So we’ll have to see if that continues. But Nvidia did put in a higher high and then shopify another stock that’s put in a higher high, whether you’re looking at it in New York or Toronto.

And then last up, Tesla. Tesla has not put in a higher high. It got up, filled the open gap, and so far that level has been holding us in check. Looking for a close on Monday below 226.40 to give us a new sell signal for Tesla. Now of course, the market has continued to be led higher by the tech sector.

And looking at the XLK, we made a higher high on Wednesday before pulling back and closing down. There the low of the day on Wednesday and then a small lower close on Friday. So nothing to get overly worried about so far. Now the chip sector has moved up and it has started to trade above the October highs, but it’s still stuck at resistance at $200 here and it would be nice to see the chip sector start to break out. Of course, with Nvidia pulling back over the last couple of days, that hasn’t helped.

If we do break out above the recent high, then there is an open gap up here under the 212.50 level that could act as a target and an area of resistance. But if we can continue higher from here, that certainly would be supportive for a year end rally. Now when we talk about the risk off trade, that’s the time and place where investors just don’t want to invest in those small micro cap stocks that generally don’t make any money. But we are seeing the Next Gen Nasdaq 100 move up. It is still stuck at $25, closed at $24.98 on Friday.

So if we can start breaking out above 25, that would be supportive for a year end rally. If we look at the Ishares for the Russell 2000, we hit 181.25 and have not gone back to retest. That level would certainly be very positive to break out above the 181.25 level. And then looking at the Ishares for the micro cap sector, we’re trading above the $100 level, which is bullish, and looking to move up to 103.13 as our next target. And then looking at the TSX Small Cap index, we’re still on a buy signal here and we’re still on a buy signal for the Venture Exchange.

Both of those are very supportive for a year end rally. Let’s finish off looking at commodity prices and no joy for crude oil. It had an inside day on Friday, it’s down in the pre market this morning. No joy for natural gas making a new low on Friday. And then looking at Canadian energy stocks closing at the lower channel line on Friday, whereas US energy stocks closed up just below the upper channel line on Friday.

So little divergence there between Canadian and US energy stocks. And then looking at the mining sector. We’ve got Gold had an inside day on Friday. Looks like it’s going to trade up another $10. It closed up $10 on Friday.

We may move up another $10 today. Silver made a new high for this move on Friday and it is trading higher in the pre market. So we’ve got the GDX and the XGD both on buy signals. And then we’ve got Silver miners making a new closing high on Friday for this move, running up to the highs that we saw in September. And hopefully we can take a run at those August highs in the not so distant future.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far it looks like we’re going to have a weak opening on Monday, but nothing that’s going to disturb anything. Remember, it isn’t a down day. We’re not that concerned if the market closes lower. We are concerned if the market closes below the previous day’s low.

That’s when things start to change. Please enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction to Monday Morning
[00:00:20]: Market Update and Performance in November
[00:01:03]: Analysis of VIX and Market Seasonality
[00:01:43]: Year-End Rally Checklist
[00:02:38]: Stock Analysis: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft,
Nvidia, Shopify, Tesla
[00:03:22]: Tech Sector and Chip Sector Analysis
[00:04:34]: Risk Off Trade and Small Cap Stocks
[00:05:10]: Commodity Prices: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Energy Stocks,
Mining Sector
[00:05:49]: Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, and Mining Sector
[00:06:37]: Conclusion and Closing Remarks

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, November 27, 2023