Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are trading lower across the board. Commodities are mixed, crude oil is up by a couple of cents, while gold is down a little over $10 on Tuesday morning. Well, US markets were closed yesterday. Canadian markets were open, thinly traded. They were traded higher yesterday. On Tuesday, we’re looking for a close on the iShares for the TSX-60 below $31.89 to give us a sell signal. Now, if you weren’t with us yesterday, we were looking at the weekly chart of the VIX. It is still on a sell signal. That is long term bullish for the stock market. Things would change this week if the VIX were to close above 15.13 at 4:00 PM Friday afternoon. Now, watching the market on Tuesday, the VIX is still on a daily sell signal, which is short term bullish for the market. Things would change on Tuesday if the VIX were to close above 13.63. Now, coming into Tuesday’s trading action, we have the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, all on buy signals. What we don’t have is the rest of the market.
We’ve got the Russell 2000, we’ve got the Russell Microcaps still on sell signals, so no change there. Then looking at the Financials, the Financials ETF is still on a buy signal, but Banks and Regional Banks are not. It is still the insurance sector that is holding the Financials up. You can see Broker Dealers are also on sell signal right now. Now, we’re also watching the semiconductors closely. They’ve come off the 205 level and bounced, and we’re still on a sell signal here. So things would change on Tuesday if we saw a close above $217.04. Now, looking at the transports, they made a new low for this move on Friday. So we’re watching the Semiconductors. We’re watching the Transports to see if we can get any buying in those areas. That would turn us more bullish on the market. Now, while the US market was closed on Monday, the Canadian market was open, and of course, it was very thinly traded, but we did end on a positive note for the TSX, the TSX-60 for Mid-caps, Small caps, and Micro Caps. So everybody had a good time on Monday. The TSX has been led higher over the last week by information technology, and of course, that had a lot to do with Shopify.
What’s really working right now are the telecom stocks making a new high on Monday. And over the last week, Quebec Corp has been the big winner. But on Monday, it was Rogers that hit a new closing high. Then looking at what’s not working while Canadian Financials are on a sell signal right now being led lower by the Banks. Now, Canadian Banks have been led lower by the TD Bank, and the TD Bank had a little recovery on Monday, so it looks like we’re trying to find support here just above the $80 level. Then looking at what’s working while the TSX had a new closing high on Monday. Moving on to Commodities, and it’s been all about Uranium over the last week, and something that we don’t usually talk about. But on Monday, Cameco led the TSX-60 higher, and Denison Mines led the TSX higher. Then looking at crude oil, we’re still on a sell signal here. That would change on Monday with a close above $73.98. Then looking at natural gas, we’re still on a buy signal. Now, on Monday, the iShares Energy ETF actually closed above the upper channel line by a penny, and so we are technically back on a buy signal here.
I would wait and see if we get another close above the upper channel line before jumping in. The most actively traded energy stock on the TSX on Monday was Athabasca, and It was up nearly 5% on the day. Now in the US, and we’re going back to Friday here, the energy stocks are still trading below the lower channel line, so no change in trend there. Now, the price of gold traded up into the channel on Friday, and so did the price of silver. Us gold mining stocks traded up into the channel, looking for a close on Tuesday above $30.23. For Canadian gold stocks, we’re looking for a close above $17.42 for the iShares for the Global Gold Index. And then looking at silver miners from Friday, moving up into that open gap, looking for a close on Tuesday above $27.53 to give us a buy signal for the silver miners. We’re almost done. One last chart, Tesla. Tesla making a new low on Friday. Now, Elon Musk announced that he wants to take more control of Tesla, so buying more shares of Tesla. And on that announcement, the stock continued to move lower this morning in the pre-market.
So probably not a very bullish sign for Tesla going forward. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.
0:00 – Stock Market Opening
0:24 – TSX-60 Analysis
0:48 – VIX Volatility Index
1:02 – Major Stock Indexes
1:16 – Financial Sector Update
1:32 – Semiconductor Stocks
1:47 – Transportation Sector
2:01 – Canadian Market Overview
2:59 – Commodities Trading
4:32 – Tesla Stock Review
Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
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