Category: Uncategorized

The Stock Market Is Weaker Than It Looks — US Banks Signal Trouble

The stock market is showing increasing signs of weakness beneath the surface. New lows are dramatically outnumbering new highs in both Canada and the U.S., while recent buy signals in areas such as small caps, industrials, the TSX 60 and uranium have quickly reversed. The NASDAQ and Nvidia are also continuing lower following bearish reversal signals.

The banking sector is particularly concerning, with both Canadian and U.S. banks having peaked months ago and continuing to deteriorate. Technology stocks remain strong enough to support the major indices, but the broader market looks considerably weaker. The key takeaway is to remain patient, avoid acting on premature signals and wait for confirmation before making new commitments.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, October 8, 2026

NASDAQ Hits New High—But This Bearish Signal Is Concerning

Stock index futures are pointing lower for Wednesday’s open as bond prices decline and yields move higher. Although several markets generated new buy signals Tuesday, the outlook remains cautious. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached new highs, but the NASDAQ and Nvidia both produced weak bearish reversal signals. Market breadth also remains concerning, with U.S. stocks posting 214 new 52-week lows versus 93 new highs, while Canada recorded 48 new lows versus 25 new highs.

The key takeaway is to avoid acting prematurely on new buy signals. TheUpTrend recommends waiting for another close above the upper channel line before entering new positions, particularly given the pre-market weakness. The TSX 60 remains a potential bullish opportunity but has yet to break its pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Bonds, emerging-market bonds and junk bonds are weakening, while Bitcoin and Ethereum remain below important resistance levels.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Stocks Hit New Highs While Bond Yields Surge — Tuesday’s Market Outlook

Stock index futures are pointing higher Tuesday morning, with the NASDAQ positioned to make another all-time high. Despite weakness in bonds and rising bond yields, major U.S. indexes remain strong, while several broad-market ETFs, including the Vanguard Total Market and Vanguard Small-Cap ETFs, have returned to buy signals. The Equal Weighted S&P 500 is also approaching a new buy signal, suggesting the recent rally may finally be broadening beyond a handful of large-cap technology stocks.

The major technology stocks remain central to the market’s strength. NVIDIA, Microsoft, Shopify, Tesla, and the Magnificent 7 ETF made new highs, while Broadcom returned to a buy signal and several other stocks could generate new buy signals. Crude oil remains under pressure despite sharply higher insurance costs for Persian Gulf shipping, while a stronger U.S. dollar continues to pressure foreign currencies. Overall, the market remains bullish, although rising bond yields and interest rates remain important risks to monitor.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, October 6, 2026

 

NASDAQ Hits 750: Is This the Top or the Start of a Bigger Rally?

The market enters Monday with a quiet pre-market setup, with stock index futures slightly below fair value and commodities mixed. Despite the NASDAQ reaching a new all-time high on Friday, several indicators point to short-term oversold conditions and a potential bottom. The S&P Transport sector has reached the bottom of its panic zones and returned to a buy signal, although the pros have not yet taken control and resistance from the flypaper channel could limit any rebound.

The NASDAQ 100 closed Friday at 749.58, essentially at the major 750 target that has acted as an important level throughout the year. A break above 750 could open the way toward the next target at 781.25, while failure could signal that the current rally has peaked. Energy stocks in Canada generated new buy signals, while financials, banks, gold stocks and telecoms remain weak. Bond markets also remain under pressure, and crude shipping costs continue to signal stress in the Persian Gulf.

Stephen Whiteside
Monday, October 5, 2026

The Market Is Weaker Than It Looks — Here’s Why

The market is showing increasing signs of weakness beneath the surface, despite major indexes remaining relatively resilient. The TSX 60 could return to a weekly sell signal, financials are weakening sharply, gold is close to a weekly sell signal, and the Russell 2000 remains on a weekly sell signal. Market breadth is particularly concerning, with fewer than 20% of TSX stocks above their 50-day moving average and financials in the S&P 500 at just over 2%. A small group of large-cap technology stocks continues to mask broader weakness.

Investors should watch the upcoming employment numbers closely because strong economic data could increase expectations for higher interest rates, while weak data could support stocks. The FlyPaper Channel remains an important technical reference: stocks above it can continue to be bought on dips, while stocks below it often encounter selling pressure on rallies. The key message is to look beyond headline indexes and monitor breadth, moving averages, buy and sell signals, and sector leadership for a clearer picture of market health.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, October 2, 2026

52-Week Lows Explode as September Comes to an End

September ended on a broadly weak note, with the TSX 60, TSX Composite, Dow, equal-weighted S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all posting declines and several closing below the previous month’s low—a bearish chart pattern. The NASDAQ was an exception, gaining more than 3%, largely because semiconductors surged nearly 9.5%. Crude oil also rose nearly 9%, while gold fell 6.75%. Market breadth remained particularly concerning, with a dramatic imbalance between new 52-week lows and new 52-week highs suggesting the market may be approaching an oversold condition.

Heading into October, stock index futures were above fair value, but jobless claims could influence the market’s direction. The S&P 500 moved onto a sell signal, joining the equal-weighted S&P 500, while several major stocks and Canadian names continued making new 52-week lows. First Quantum suffered a sharp decline following negative news from Panama and generated a new sell signal. The overall message is cautious: despite strength in a handful of large technology and semiconductor stocks, significant portions of the market are weakening and could continue lower before a meaningful rebound develops.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, October 1, 2026

Stock Market Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Wednesday

The September 30 morning outlook highlights a market showing signs of weakness despite the historically bullish bias often associated with the last day of the month. U.S. futures were slightly lower, while upcoming GDP and other economic data could influence the session. The NASDAQ 100 remains a key area of focus because a breakdown could add further pressure to the broader market. The S&P 500 is still holding its 50-day moving average, while the Russell 2000, financials and U.S. banks are moving around or below their 200-day moving averages.

The technical picture is increasingly risk-off. TLT and XBB made new lows, while emerging-market and junk bonds continued to show a series of lower highs and lower lows. Energy stocks remained on sell signals, and the Magnificent 7 ETF was only about 40 cents away from generating a sell signal. Apple also moved back to a sell signal, while SpaceX generated a sell signal earlier in the week. Investors should closely monitor the NASDAQ 100, big-cap technology stocks, bond markets and key moving-average levels for further confirmation of market weakness.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, September 30, 2026

S&P 500 Nears a Sell Signal as Market Weakness Deepens

The U.S. and Canadian markets remain under pressure as 52-week lows continue to significantly outnumber new highs, highlighting a growing imbalance beneath the surface. Bonds continued to fall Monday while yields moved higher, adding pressure to interest-rate-sensitive areas such as utilities, home improvement and casual dining. The S&P 500 approached a potential sell signal, while the equal-weighted S&P 500, Russell 2000 and U.S. banks remained weak. The NASDAQ 100 remains on a buy signal, supported heavily by semiconductor stocks.

Gold and materials stocks suffered another sharp decline, while energy markets remained mixed. Crude oil is holding near $150 on a short-term sell signal, natural gas remains on a buy signal, and several major technology stocks showed contrasting trends. Tesla rolled over, Apple remains on a buy signal, AMD continues to hold above its upper channel, and Shopify remains on a buy signal. The key takeaway is to watch the S&P 500’s potential sell signal, continued bond weakness, market breadth and individual trend signals closely.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, September 29, 2026

The Stock Market Looks Strong—But These Numbers Tell a Different Story

The market is showing increasing signs of underlying weakness despite the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continuing to hold up, largely because of strength in a small group of large-cap AI and technology stocks. The breadth figures are particularly concerning: Thursday produced only 61 new 52-week highs versus 378 new 52-week lows in the U.S. market. The Dow Industrials, Dow Transports and Dow Utilities are also extremely weak, reinforcing the broader deterioration beneath the major indexes.

Investors should watch for a breakdown in the leading technology stocks, as their continued strength is currently helping support the broader market. Bond prices remain under pressure while yields move higher, putting additional pressure on interest-rate-sensitive areas. The TSX is forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, while sectors such as utilities, consumer discretionary and financials remain weak. Key individual stocks including Nvidia and Apple have specific downside levels that could trigger new sell signals.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, September 25, 2026

Bond Market COLLAPSE Sends Shockwaves Through Stocks

Wednesday delivered a major reversal in the markets as a sharp selloff in bonds pushed bond yields to multi-decade highs. The move effectively erased most of the bullish signals generated from Tuesday, with TLT and XBB rolling over while emerging-market and junk bonds remained on sell signals. Higher U.S. rates also strengthened the U.S. dollar and triggered sharp declines in the Canadian dollar, euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and Mexican peso.

The weakness spread into stocks, gold and silver, with many securities returning to sell signals. Canadian markets closed below their lower channel lines, while financials and materials were among the major losers. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and NASDAQ showed no trend change, but small caps and several major stocks weakened. With stock index futures continuing lower Thursday morning, the key focus is whether new sell signals develop and whether important support levels can hold.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, September 24, 2026