Author: admin

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, ahead of the inflation numbers that come out at 8:30, things are fairly quiet, not a lot of commitment either way. Of course, once those inflation numbers come out, we expect volatility to expand, have no idea which way the market is going to go after those numbers come out. So far, the VIX is still on a sell signal this week, which is supportive for higher stock prices. That would change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close, not trade, but close above $15.07. Now, how the Fed calculates inflation and all the things they’re looking at, I’m not sure how they couldn’t determine that inflation is still a major issue and they should raise rates. But the way that they look at the numbers and how they weight things, of course, changes over time. They could see something and just put a different weighting on it than the rest of us would. But when we look at commodity prices, we’ve got crude oil making a new high yesterday, gasoline up testing the recent high. Even natural gas came back yesterday, and we’re looking at the UNG, and it recently made a lower-low.

Now we’ll have to see if it can break this short term pattern here and make a higher high, which would be short term bullish for natural gas. Now looking at some longer term commodity charts, looking at the bacon, you can see we’re up at the highs of 2023. We’ve got hamburger up at the highs of 2023. We’ve got cocoa or chocolate up at the highs of 2023. That’s a similar situation for underwear or cotton. Then we’re looking at frozen concentrated orange juice up at the highs of 2023, and the price of sugar up at the highs of 2023. So all that is very inflationary. Of course, how the Fed looks at it is not the same as how you and I would look at it. Some commodities that are not up at the top of the range for 2023: coffee is actually down near the lows of 2023, and so is the price of lumber. Well, what worked on Tuesday? Well, it was the energy sector on both sides of the border. Looking at individual stocks, the biggest winner on the TSX 60 was Suncor. On the TSX itself, it was Vermilion. Looking at the S&P 500, when we’re looking to energy stocks, the big winner was Occidental, followed by Marathon.

Marathon had a big reversal day yesterday. If you’re trading marathon, I want to sit on my hands for a day and see what happens next, see if we can get another confirming close above the upper channel line. Now, ahead of the energy stocks on the S&P 500, the biggest winner was Zion followed by PNC, followed by Keycorp. Those were the biggest winners on the S&P 500. Now, those big gains were not enough to take the ETF back on a buy signal. We’re still waiting for a buy signal for regional banks and banks to join the SPYDR Financial ETF already on a buy signal. That has more to do with broker dealers, but especially the insurance companies, which are trading back up at the recent highs. Looking north of the border, the TSX Financial Index is sitting right on the edge of a new buy signal. Banks moved up yesterday. They’re getting pretty close to a buy signal. Then the big winner yesterday was the National Bank, and then we had the Royal Bank both trade up and closed in the channel. So we’re one trading day away from a possible buy signal. And just like in the US, insurance stocks are holding up very well north of the border, whether you’re looking at Manulife or SunLife.

Now, I always talk about Fairfax being Canada’s version of Berkshire Hathaway and it is still holding up very well, not looking as good as Berkshire Hathaway itself, which made a new high yesterday. And Berkshire Hathaway is listed as an insurance stock, so that matches up pretty well with the insurance index. Looking at the major index ETF, starting with the iShares for the TSX60, we hit the upper channel line yesterday. So looking for a close on Wednesday above $30.65. Then looking at the NASDAQ 100, trading in the channel yesterday, no change in trend there. Unlike semiconductors, which made a new closing low for this move. Then looking at the DOW still on a sell signal, no change there. We’ve traded through the upper channel line two days in a row, but have not closed above it. Then looking at the S&P 500, we traded down yesterday still in the channel. We’re looking for a close on Wednesday below 4:44.86. Now you can break up the S&P 500 several ways. One way is to look at the equal weighted version, so not giving your stocks like Apple overweighting. Each stock is equally weighted within the index. It is on a sell signal right now.

So is the low volatility. So this is 100 stocks out of the S&P 500 with the lowest volatility. They recently made a new low before moving back up into the channel. And then the high beta stocks are also on a sell signal. That has a lot to do with one stock, and that was Apple, which plunged last week. You can see when the ETF rolled over and you can see Apple are rolling over there as well. So Apple was down yesterday. Looking at the rest of the high beta stocks that we follow, we’ve got Alphabet still on a buy signal, no change there. Amazon having an inside day. Then we saw Meta pull back closing in the channel. We also saw Microsoft close within the channel. No change in trend for NVIDIA had an inside day on Tuesday. And no change in trend for Tesla, which made a new high for this move. And that shows up as a bearish reversal day. But remember, we did not close below the previous day’s low, so not overly concerned about that bearish reversal signal just yet. And you can see that we’re getting pretty close to getting to that open gap up here, which could certainly be a target, whether it’s the bottom or the top.

But we may see Tesla trade up to those levels on Wednesday. Last up, let’s take a look at what’s going on with the hard stuff. Things that if it drops on your foot is going to hurt. Copper traded up into the channel for the second day in a row, so no change in trend there. A small pullback. Gold was down yesterday. Silver was up slightly on Tuesday. It is still stuck to the 20, 23, 43 level, so that’s still holding us in check. Then looking at the gold miners in the channel once again, no change in trend for the GDX or the XGD or Silver Miners. No changes in trend from Tuesday’s training action. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Normally, I tell you to think about donating blood. If you’re in the US right now, there is a crisis going on. There’s been a whole bunch of climate disasters over the past month or so. And if you have the time, please consider donating blood. I’ve heard people complain about the waiting time to donate blood. I don’t ever experience that. We make appointments and I’ve never had any trouble. I’ve donated over 50 times and I’ve never once had to wait for more than five minutes from my appointment time.

So I don’t understand how the system works in the US. I’ve never had any personal experience with it. But if you are south of the border, please considering donating blood not only for somebody else’s wellbeing, but it’s important for your own personal wellbeing as well. Have a great day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, September 13, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures are slightly below fair value, being led lower by the Nasdaq. In the world of commodities, things are mixed.

Crude oil and natural gas are up slightly, while we’ve got Gold down $11 in the pre market on Tuesday morning. Now, we don’t have any major comic numbers coming out this morning. Unlike the rest of the week. The VIX had an inside day on Monday, so we’re looking for a close above $15.19 to give us a buy signal on Tuesday. That, of course, would be negative for stocks.

Lot of news out regarding Apple on Monday, but didn’t really move the stock much. They’re still trying to close that open gap. We are up another dollar in the pre market. Last time I checked, Monday was all about Tesla. Tesla, I guess, got an upgrade on old news, but there it is popping higher, and that helped lead the Nasdaq higher yesterday.

Looking at big cap tech stocks, we’ve got Amazon trading up sharply yesterday, up to the previous high. Now, our mathematical target was 143 75. We got as high as 143 62. Is that significant? Well, the previous high was 143 63.

So hopefully you had an order in just below that level, and it got filled on Monday. So congratulations. Looking at meta. Meta was up yesterday, coming up to the 312 50 level. Microsoft was up on Monday.

No change there. Big move up for BlackBerry on Monday. And this will probably scare a lot of investors to just not just trade and not follow BlackBerry anymore. We had a huge move down last week. Now another huge move up this week.

Not enough to give us a buy signal on the TSX. We’re still looking for a close on Tuesday above $7.17. Shopify was up yesterday, so still closing above the upper channel line. No change there. What didn’t work on Monday?

Well, Nvidia was down. It’s still on a sell signal. No change there. And we still have semiconductors on a sell signal. Starting to break down below last week’s low.

Now in the pre market this morning, Oracle is in the news and it made a new high for this move yesterday, up challenging the previous high. But in the pre market this morning, we’re trading off sharply, trading down here at 114 and change level. So we’ll have to see how the market deals with it when the market opens. Looking at the rest of the major index ETFs, we’ve got the Dow trading higher yesterday, not enough to give us a buy signal. We still have the S&P 500 on a buy signal.

The ishares for the TSX 60. No joy. They were up yesterday, not enough to give us a buy signal. That would change on Tuesday with a close above $30.64. Now, what really worked on monday were the marijuana stocks and starting off with the ETFs, the alternative Harvest ETF was up over 17%, while the Horizon’s Marijuana Life ETF was up over 8% on the day.

Now, looking at the stockhouse bullboards, you can see the two most popular stocks that traders there follow is Tilray and Canopy Growth, and they ended up being two of the most actively traded stocks on Monday. Tilray in New York is up testing last week’s high. Our next mathematical target is 352. If you want higher targets, you can go take a look at the weekly charts. If we look at Canopy Growth, which I believe was the most actively traded stock on the TSX on Monday, was up over 81% on the day, and you certainly don’t see that very often.

Our next two targets were 156 and 195 and then 234. We hit 234 yesterday and pulled back slightly. If we can take that out, then 273 is our next target on Tuesday. And then CureaLeaf Holdings was up nicely yesterday, up over 13%, heading towards 742. That’s our next target.

We got as high as 732 on Monday. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation taking a look at the world of commodities. Starting with the energy sector. Both crude oil and natural gas had a small pullback on Monday, unlike the stocks, which were hit a lot harder. Looking at the XEG in Toronto, you can see we traded it down to the lower channel line yesterday, so a close below yesterday’s low on Tuesday would give us a sell signal.

A little more room to go for the XLE in New York. We’re closing at the upper channel line now on the TSX, the most actively traded energy stock on Monday was Canadian Natural Resources, trading down to the lower channel line and closing just below it. So we’re back on a sell signal for Canadian Natural Resources, unlike Suncor, which traded down to the lower channel line yesterday, so a close below yesterday’s low would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. In New York, ConocoPhillips traded down to the lower channel line, so looking for a close below 119.60. And diamondback also traded down to the lower channel line, looking for close on Tuesday below 151.80.

Then looking at gold and silver. Starting with the price of gold, we were up 4.50 yesterday. We’re down $9 – $10 in the pre market this morning, so no joy. There certainly no joy for the price of silver. And then we don’t have any buy signals for the major gold and silver ETFs.

Whether you’re looking at the GDX gold miners ETF we traded up into the channel yesterday, a close above 29.04 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday. Looking in Toronto for the XGD, we’re looking for a close above $17.11, and then looking at the silver miners closing at the lower channel line. So not expecting a potential buy signal on Tuesday, we would need a close above 25.98. Not expecting that to happen. Now, the most actively traded gold stock on the TSX was B2Gold closing right at the upper channel line.

So any higher close on Tuesday would give us a buy signal. Kinross was the next most actively traded stock on the TSX inside day yesterday. No change in trend. Of course. In New York, the biggest gold miner in the US is Newmont.

It traded up into the channel, so looking for a close above 39 30. Now B two gold and Kinross are also the most actively traded stocks in the US. Followed by Barrick in New York. We need a close above $16.15 to give us a buy signal on Tuesday. Not expecting that to happen.

Okay, folks, that is all for Tuesday morning. Stock index futures are still slightly below fair value, so so far it does not look like we’re going to see a lot of buying at the open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, September 12, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hello, everyone, it’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUptrend.com with your ten second market update. If you’re a long term investor, all you really need to know is that it was an inside week. Now, if you don’t know what an inside week is, it’s similar to an inside day. It’s where the trading activity fit within the previous bar’s range. So in this case, the S and P 500 traded within the the previous bar’s range.

So the last trading week of August and what we’re looking for now is we’re looking for a breakout above the previous week’s high or a breakdown below the previous week’s low. An inside week, an inside bar is a bar of indecision. It’s a pause, it’s a break. The market just wants to wait and get more evidence that they should be bullish or they should be bearish. Now, in September, there’s usually a bearish bias to the month.

So at some point I think we’re going to break down below the previous week’s low. Now, when we look at the VIX, the VIX also had an inside week. So a week of indecision. Again, we’re looking at for a breakout or breakdown. And if you look at this daily chart, you can see where the recent low was and the recent high.

On Thursday, we traded above the upper channel line but did not close there. So now on Monday, we’re going to be looking for a close above $15.32 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX. And of course, if that were to happen, that would probably be negative for the stock market. Now, as we’ve discussed previously, the months of September and October are not usually good for the stock market. There’s usually additional volatility.

If we’re going to see a significant sell off in September and October, we need the VIX to start punching out above the 200 day moving average. And as you can see, it’s been a while since we’ve done that. So in August, the 200 day moving average held us in check. Will it do so again in September? We’ll just have to wait and see.

But if you’re expecting a significant sell off, that’s going to be the first clue that it’s starting, will be if we start punching out above the 200 day moving average. Now, if you’ve been with us for any length of time, you’ve heard me say that news is noise, it’s a constant chatter. For some people, news is very important. For me, it doesn’t really matter if I’ve got business television on, I usually have the volume off. There’s a handful of people I turn the volume on for or go looking for their interviews afterwards.

But I’m really not going to react to the news at all because there’s absolutely no guarantee how the market will react to news. The fact that there’s a positive number or somebody beats expectations, that’s no guarantee the stock’s going up and there’s absolutely no rule, no guarantee that if there’s negative news, if a company disappoints, if economic numbers are worse than expected, there’s no guarantee the market’s going down. Every situation is different. None of them can be replicated. People think that if the bond yields cross, that’s a bad thing.

And sometimes it is, sometimes it isn’t. So I want to react to how the market reacts to the news, not how I think the market should react to the news. Now. The US. Dollar index continued to move higher.

Sometimes that’s good for the stock market, sometimes that’s bad. Right now, I think it’s putting a little pressure on the stock market. When we look at the metals, the price of copper came down, so it’s still not trending higher at the moment. The price of gold was down $24.40 on the week, but still, like the rest of the market, pretty quiet. Some more aggressive selling in the price of silver, which was down 5.65% on the week.

Then when we look at the energy sector, this isn’t good for fighting inflation to see crude oil continue to move higher. It was up another $2.10 on the week. When we look at the price target chart, it looks like 87 50 is not really that significant. If we go back, there’s more resistance at 93 75. We peaked at $100 back at the start of 2022 and got up as high as the 100 and 625 level.

So not expecting a lot of long term resistance at 87 50. Certainly there’s some short term resistance, but not long term resistance. So we could see crude oil continue to move sharply higher from where we are right now. Natural gas, on the other hand, is still just treading water for some reason. In 2023, nobody wants to bid up natural gas, but that could change by the time the year ends.

Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, it was an inside week. Yes, we pulled back. That didn’t close below the previous week’s low. Then looking at the Dow, you can see we dipped down to the lower channel line, SP 500 we talked about earlier. The Nasdaq 100 also had an inside week.

What didn’t have an inside week? Well, semiconductors. The chip sector closed below the previous week’s low. That’s not a bullish sign. Now, I’ve been talking about financial services in the banking sector, not an area I actively trade.

I have a couple of stocks that I follow, but I’m really not overly interested in this sector myself. But many people are, especially long term investors trying to generate dividend income. And you can see it was a very quiet week for the Spyder Financials. We saw banks trade down and close just above the lower channel line, while the regional banks actually generated a weekly sell signal. So they’re back on a weekly sell signal.

When we look at the US. Insurance companies, they had an inside week, and they’re holding up much better than the banks themselves. Then looking at the Canadian market, looking at the TSX Financial Index, it had an inside week. Banks, on the other hand, closed below the previous week’s low. So that’s not a good sign.

Now, for the markets to really turn around, we’re going to want to see the banks turn around. And you can see the Royal Bank is dealing with the summer lows at the moment. And you can see we peaked here at the start of the year. Banks usually get money coming into them during RSP season. And then we made a lower high, a lower high, we made a low and a lower low.

And now it’s going to be really interesting for the year end to see if that low can hold or if we break that. That’s probably not going to be a good sign going forward. And then a much weaker looking chart. Bank of America again, we want to get these banks back on buy signals. That would be a sign that the overall market is fairly healthy as opposed to the current market that we’re in, where it’s really just the tech stocks holding the market up.

Let’s finish off this weekend’s presentation, looking at four tech stocks that we love to follow. Two of them are on sell signals, two of them still on buy signals. Apple rolled over on Wednesday, continued to move lower on Thursday, and was up ever so slightly on Friday, up $0.62. So they tried to fill the open gap. You can see we’re holding support at 175.

We traded below it on Thursday. If we take out the low and then we’ll try to hold, use the August low as support. Otherwise we’re heading down to 168 75 and then probably 162 50. Looking at NVIDIA . NVIDIA rolled over on Thursday, generating a sell signal on Friday.

It was fairly quiet trading. We didn’t take out Thursday’s low, but we still closed lower on the day. And then looking at shopify. Shopify hit the upper channel line on Friday, looking for a close on Monday below 87.02, and then for Tesla. Tesla still on a buy signal here.

Things would change on Monday if Tesla were to close below $241.80. Of course, in both cases, if they don’t close below those levels on Monday, those lower channel lines are going to continue to move higher daily. The Shopify one is going to move faster than the Tesla lower channel line will. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, September 10, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, we finally got a sell signal in Apple, and it was a big one that we actually gapped lower, came down to support, and currently holding support at 175. If we take out the August lows, then 168.75, 162.50 come into play. Now, the reason that Apple fell yesterday was because of news out of China. Chinese stock market not doing well at the present time. When you look at the chart of anything Chinese-related, you’re going to see a lot of white spaces, you’re going to see a lot of gaps. Anytime that you’re tracking something from overseas, whether it’s in Europe or Asia, the information sources are all out of those areas. There’s always a delayed reaction to whatever happens. You’re never going to see a very smooth chart, lots of big gaps. It’s very, very hard to trade anything listed overseas. Then looking at the VIX, the VIX traded through the upper channel line yesterday, but actually closed slightly lower on the day, looking for a close on Friday above $15.41 to give us a buy signal for the VIX.

That, of course, would be negative for stocks. And yesterday was an inside day for the Dow. The S&P 500 traded through the lower channel line, still looking for a close below 444.30 on Friday. And then for the Nasdaq 100, we bounced off the lower channel line looking for a close below 369.94. Now, semiconductors are back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Invidea is back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. The Russell 2000 is back on a sell signal, joining micro caps already on a sell signal starting to break down below the August lows. So we have a new lower high and a lower low. That, of course, is bearish. And, of course, when people are getting out of the microcap sector, that is the risk of trade. Looking at the energy sector, we put in a high three days ago. That gave us a bearish reversal signal. So far, no major breakdown here, but that high is still in place. Looking at the Canadian market, the TSX and the TSX60, we saw the market trade down to the lower channel line. So a close below yesterday’s low for either of those would give us a sell signal on Friday, which would join mid caps and small caps already on a sell signal.

And oddly enough, we saw a little buying in the venture exchange, which closed higher on Thursday. Looking at the Canadian energy sector, similar pattern to what’s happening in the US. Yesterday was an inside day or a day of indecision. Then financials have rolled over, as have the banks. So financial index back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close joining the banks, which generated a sell signal on Wednesday. In both cases, we’re heading towards those August lows. And if we want to be bullish here, we want those lows to hold. If we want to be bearish, we want those lows to break. Looking at gold, gold stocks had an inside day yesterday. It was fairly quiet for gold, but not for silver. Industrials came down hard, so they’re looking to challenge the August lows. Then we saw a lot of volatility in the information technology sector. You can see they tried to fill the gap on the way down and then came back, still closing slightly lower on the day and really in sync with Shopify, not in sync with BlackBerry, which tumbled yesterday. If you were trading BlackBerry, we go back to when we got a buy signal on that day, on the next morning, you would have bought at 6:21, that was the opening price or around there.

It’s no guarantee you’re going to get the exact opening price, but let’s say you bought at 6.21, you looked up, your trading plan was to sell half at 6.64, then half of the remaining position at 7.03, then half of the remaining position at 7.42. That’s what you were supposed to do, and that’s what happened. Yesterday, when the stock collapsed, you were sitting with a very small position, already locking in a lot of profits. Yesterday, we closed at 6.37, so still above the price that you bought in at. It’s still a profitable trade when you exit at the open on Friday morning. Let’s finish off with commodity prices. It was an inside day for crude oil on Thursday. We saw natural gas make a new low before closing slightly higher on the day. This is not a very bullish chart at all as yesterday was a new lower low. Then looking at copper, we’re back on a sell signal for copper joining joining gold. Gold had an inside day on Thursday, so very quiet trading for gold on Thursday, unlike silver, which continued to move lowers. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We posted over 15,000 charts last night, and this is just, of course, some highlights.

I always short-change somebody. I can’t cover all the stocks in this presentation every morning. I just try to hit on the major highlights that could affect the most people. Sorry about missing your stock, but that’s just the way things are. If you want me to look at your stock, of course, send me an email and I’ll be glad to consider it. But definitely, I’m short-changing somebody every single morning. Stock index futures are below fair value right now. There are no major economic numbers coming out on Friday morning. So far, it looks like the market wants to do a little selling at the open. Enjoy the rest of your day, enjoy your weekend, and the next time you’ll hear my voice is on Sunday.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, September 8, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from the uptrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are below fair value, being led lower by the Nasdaq. We do have jobless claims coming out at 830, and that could certainly add to the pre market volatility. Now, on Wednesday, we saw the VIX continue to move higher. That’s not good for stocks on Thursday.

We’re looking for a close above 15.51. Now, with the VIX moving up over the past couple of days, it’s been enough to roll the Dow over. The Dow is back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. Now, the biggest hit to the Dow on Wednesday was Apple. Apple came down sharply, bounced off the lower channel line.

So a close below yesterday’s low on Thursday would give us a sell signal for Apple. Now, the other stocks that pulled the Dow down were already on sell signals, whether you’re looking at Boeing, followed by Amgen, followed by Johnson Johnson, then McDonald’s and American Express, and then we’ve got Merck and Goldman Sachs, all already on sell signals, all moving lower, pulling the Dow down on Wednesday. Now, all of that selling was not enough to give us a sell signal for the S&P 500. So again, a close below yesterday’s low would give us a sell signal on Thursday. And the Nasdaq still holding up fairly well, closing at the upper channel line.

So while the Nasdaq is leading us lower in the pre market, it looks like the S&P 500 will be the next to roll over. Then we’ve got the Russell 2000 sitting right on the lower channel line, so not too much farther to go for a sell signal. And that would join micro caps that rolled over on Wednesday. Now, looking at sectors, the biggest drag on the US. Markets on Wednesday were the regional banks, followed by the banks themselves.

And of course, there’s lots of talk out there that some of these banks are going to get downgraded soon, and I guess investors are trying to get ahead of that happening. Of course, the biggest tell is going to be if we can hold the August lows as we move lower in September. Then looking at the Canadian market, we saw a lot of weakness yesterday. The TSX, the TSX 60, mid caps and small caps all pulled back into the channel, while the micro caps are back on a sell signal as of Wednesday’s close. What worked yesterday?

Well, Magna was up. We saw Canadian Apartments move up yesterday. We saw a new high for this move for Sun Life. Then we’ve got Saputo moving up slightly on the day, still on a buy signal here that would change on Thursday with a close below $28.47. Then Sonovis made a new high for this move on Wednesday.

Then looking at what didn’t work, well, Enbridge was the biggest loser yesterday, gapping lower, I guess they disappointed investors. Then we’ve got Algonquin Power back on a sell signal. We’ve got restaurants, brands back on a sell signal. We’ve got TC Energy just holding above the lower channel line, so a close below 48 42 on Thursday would give us a sell signal. Then looking at Emera hitting a new low for this move.

It’s been on a sell signal since late July. Last up a quick look at bond yields. And bond yields moved up on Wednesday whether you’re looking at the five year or the ten year, and that can certainly spook the market if that trend continues. And of course, if bond yields are moving up, we may see bonds move lower. The TLT actually ticked up yesterday, the XBB ticked up yesterday.

What didn’t work was the emerging markets and junk bonds were both down on Wednesday. Okay, folks, that’s all for Thursday morning. Still waiting for jobless claims. They could certainly add to the pre market volatility, but so far it looks like the market wants to do some selling at the Open on Thursday morning. Thank you very much for your time and attention.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, September 7, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet, stock index futures are down across the board. Not enough to get anybody overly bearish on Wednesday morning, but we did see the VIX move up yesterday. If the VIX continues to move higher, we need to see a close above $15.71, and that, of course, would be bearish for the stock market. On Tuesday, we saw the US dollar index make a new high for this move, breaking out above the high from late May. And, of course, the corresponding move down from other currencies, including the euro and the Canadian dollar. If you were with us on Tuesday, we took a look at the price of gold and some of the corresponding ETFs. I mentioned that this sector looks fairly weak as we were making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Gold moved back in the channel yesterday, looking for a close below $1944.50 on Wednesday. Now, while we’re waiting for the price of gold to generate a sell signal, the price of silver has already done so it was down sharply yesterday back on a sell signal.

Now, we saw the major gold stocks roll over yesterday. We’ve got the major gold and silver ETFs back on sell signals. So looking at the GDX, the XGD, and the SIL all ending Tuesday on sell signals. Now, we also looked at the energy sector on Tuesday and in the premarket, crude oil was trading higher and ended the day higher. If you’re trading the USO, our next price target was 78.13, congratulations. You had got orders filled yesterday. You should have orders in at 81.25 as our next target. Then look at the price of gasoline. It slipped a little yesterday. You should be anticipating that the demand for gasoline starts to taper off here as the summer driving season comes to an end. Yesterday was a bearish reversal day. Pros have given up control already and are heading lower. They’re anticipating lower gasoline prices to go along with lower natural gas prices. Natural gas gap lower yesterday down to our next price target of 664 closed at 665. Now, if we take out the August lows and of course, that hasn’t happened yet, look two lines down to 5.86, that would take us back to the lows from May of this year.

Looking at energy stocks, they continue to move higher on Tuesday with the XEG and the XLE, both making new highs. Next up, let’s take a look at the major stock market index ETFs that we follow, starting with the Ishares for the TSX60. This is looking pretty bearish. We closed below Friday’s low after making a new high. It looks like we may have topped here. Of course, yesterday, the energy sector helped hold the TSX up, while mining stocks helped pull it down and it looks like the mining stocks won. Looking at the DOW Diamonds, we’re trading back in the channel, looking for a close on Wednesday below $345.57. We had a bearish reversal signal on Thursday. Pros have not taking control while we’ve been on a buy signal for a few days now, so that’s a bearish sign. Then looking at the S&P 500, fairly quiet trading on Wednesday. On Friday, we did hit our next target. Our next target was 453.13. We hit a high of 453.67. If you had an order in, it got filled on Friday, so congratulations. Looking at the QQQ’s, a fairly quiet trading yesterday, inside day for the queues closing higher on the day.

Then we had to pull back in semiconductors, still trading and closing above the upper channel line. Let’s finish off today’s presentation, walking through the most actives from New York and Toronto, starting in New York. Tesla was up on the day, but had an inside day, so it’s really a day of indecision there. We’re still on a buy signal, still trading and closing above the upper channel line. New high for a Tillray. And oddly enough, right at the top of the most actively traded US stocks yesterday, Advanced Micro Devices. Second day of a buy signal here, but I’m anticipating that we’re going to have trouble at 112.50. That has held us in check for the last few weeks. No joy for Bank of America. Then we’ve got Apple and there seems to be a lot of sellers in just up here at the top of the open gap. We have not been able to fill that gap. We’ve been up here for the past three days trying and so far it looks like we’ve seen a wall of sellers up at this level. Then looking at Intel, new high for Intel. Unfortunately, we did not hit 37.50, got as high as 37.41 before pulling back.

So sorry about that. If you had orders in at 37.50, Amazon, fairly quiet day, still on a buy signal. No change for NIO, still on a sell signal here. That would change on Wednesday with a close above $11.19. And then NVIDIA. Nvidia still struggling to break out above 500, still on a buy signal that has not changed. Last up, let’s take a look at the most actively traded Canadian stocks and a lot of new highs here for the energy sector, starting with Suncor and then Canadian Natural Resources. Manulife had a fairly quiet day yesterday. A small pullback did not close below the previous days low. TC Energy struggling here made a new high for this move. Then looking at Way, making a new high and then a new high for Baytech. Bank of Nova Scotia, big outside reversal day yesterday. It’s moved up nicely over the past couple of days, but unfortunately, that looks like it’s come to an end. Athabasca Oil Sands, new high there. No joy for the TD bank. It’s been struggling to generate a new buy signal here. We need a close on Wednesday above $83.46. And then the first gold stock to show up on the most active list was B2gold.

It rolled over yesterday back on a sell signal. And that’s not much of after generating a buy signal, really no fall through to the upside. So B2gold investors just been sitting on their hands for the past couple of weeks, and now we’re back on a sell signal. Last up this morning looking at Shopify. Shopify is still holding up at these levels. We’re trying to get to 93.75. You had the opportunity to lock in some profits at 81.25 and then 87.50. 93.75 is still in reach. We did not close below the previous days low. So far it’s not looking too bad, expecting a pullback at the open on Wednesday morning. If we start breaking down below 87.50, that’ll probably be a clue that this particular move is coming to an end. Okay, folks, that is all for Wednesday morning. Still looking for a little selling at the open. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Wednesday, September 6, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet, stock index futures and commodities are slightly below fair value. The only standout, I think, at the moment is the price of gold, which is down about $11 in the premarket. In this morning’s presentation, I thought we’d focus on the major commodities that we track, starting with crude oil, which made a higher high on Friday. It’s been on a buy signal for the last four trading days. We are punching through to higher highs with the pros taking control. You can see the Fly Paper Channel is acting as support. The traders have been buying the dip. We’re trying to punch through 84.38. It doesn’t look like we’re going to do that at the open on Monday morning. If we can do that, then 87.50 comes into play. Now looking at natural gas, not really participating right now, still on a sell signal. Things would change on Tuesday if natural were to close above $3.21. Unfortunately, the pros are not looking to take control on Tuesday morning. Back in August, we did trade up to the 100-day moving average.

If we can take that out in September, then the 200-day moving average would certainly come into focus and that would be an enormous move for natural gas. Looking at energy stocks, starting in the Canadian market, looking at the XEG, we made a new high on Friday, trading up to 17.19. Congratulations. Hopefully, you took some money off the table at 171.9. If we can keep going from here, then 1797 comes into play. Suncor made a new high on Friday. We’re trading up to the 46.88 level on the weekly chart that has held us in check in late 2022 and in 2023. If we can take that out this week, then $50 does come into play, and that would take us back up to the highs from 2022. To looking at the US market, looking at the XLE, we made a new high on Friday, trying to head towards 92.19. That is our next target to the upside. Devon Energy has been on a buy signal for a week now. It filled an open gap on Friday, so that gap has been filled. Now we’re looking to see if we can take out the recent high. We are stuck here at 53.13. If we can take out that recent high, then 56.25 comes into play.

To get to 56.25, unfortunately, we’d have to take out the 200-day moving average, and that might may be difficult at the moment. Again, if we can do that, then on the weekly chart, you can see 56.25 is our next target, and above that is 62.50 if we can keep going from there. Let’s move from energy to the mining sector, and we’ll take a look at gold miners and the price of gold this morning. Both are not looking very healthy at the moment. We have made a major lower high in July, and we made a lower low in August, so that pattern is not very helpful. Across the bottom of the screen, you can see an elongated Pressure Zone here, and that’s telling us that this particular symbol is off its game. We were looking for the market to bounce around here and try to run up and to see if we could retest the recent highs, but that didn’t happen. That opportunity passed. Then we looked at another opportunity, which gave us a lower high and a nice early warning signal up there. I’m not too excited about the precious metals at the moment with the price of gold really dragging its heels.

If we look at the right side chart here, we are on a buy signal right now. That would change on Tuesday with a close below $1941.70. We are trading above the 1937.50 level, trying to get to $2,000. We need to take out Friday’s high to do that. Unfortunately, we’re stuck at the convergence of the major moving averages. That’s holding us in check. When we look at the GDX, again, the pattern is very similar: the elongated Pressure Zone, the lower high, the lower low. This is all very bearish. Yes, we’re projecting higher prices here, but we’re projecting higher prices on a very weak symbol at the moment. We’ve run up to 29.69 and stop. If we can take out last week’s high than 31.25 would come into play for the GDX. We’re currently stuck at the 50-day moving average, and that is holding us in check at the moment. Now, the US’s biggest gold mining stock, of course, is a two-month, the only one in the S&P 500. This pattern doesn’t look too different. We had a major low back here in May. We made a lower high in July. We made a lower low in August.

And so, again, very bearish chart pattern. Yes, we had a nice Pressure Zone. We’re at the bottom of the Panic Zones. We are projecting higher prices for a very weak symbol. You can see we’re on a buy signal right now, but it’s not looking very healthy at the moment, and certainly the pros have not taken control. So when you get a buy signal after a couple of days, if the pros don’t come in to take control, that’s not a good sign. You can see we had a bearish reversal day on Friday. The Fly Paper Channel is still pointing down. If we were able to take out last week’s high and move up, then you can see we have a range, say from 4,175 to 43.75. I think that would hold us in check if we were able to continue to move higher from here. With gold down $11 in the premarket this morning, we’re not expecting that to happen. Now, Canadian gold stocks look very similar, nothing different here. The elongated Pressure Zone, the lower high, the lower low, all of that is bearish. We are on a buy signal. Things would change on Tuesday.

If we were to close below $16.82 for the XGD, and you can see we had a bearish reversal signal last week. The pros did take control for a few days and then gave up on Friday. We traded up to the 1719 level last week, tried to break out above it. If we can take out last week’s high, then 1797 would be our next target to the upside. Then looking at Barrick, the most actively traded Canadian gold stock, the pattern is pretty similar, but we actually put in a higher low in August, so a little bit different here. Not sure it’s going to help much with what’s going on with the price of gold itself. We are on a buy signal right now. Things would change on Tuesday with a closed blow, 21.54. We’ve traded up to the 50-day moving average. That’s holding us in check so far and the bottom of the Fly Paper Channel. I think this is probably as high as we can go at the moment. Let’s finish off just looking at the VIX and the S&P 500. The VIX is still falling. That is supportive for higher stock prices. You can see in August, we ran up to the 200-day moving average and stopped.

For a major decline in the stock market to happen in the month of September or October, we need to break out above that 200 day moving average. Now, the S&P 500, Spider ETF traded up to the 453.13 level on Friday and stopped. That was our next price target. We got as high as 453.67. So if you had orders in to get filled, congratulations, they got filled on Friday. For us to continue to move higher from here, the July high was up there at 459.44. If we were able to take that out, then that brings 4.68.75 into play. Not expecting to head in those directions on Tuesday morning, but it’s certainly doable in the month of September, which we expect a lot of volatility. On the downside on Monday, to generate a sell signal for the S&P 500 ETF, we need a close below 442.10. Of course, the first thing I look for is a close below the previous days low, and we’ll be watching for that on Wednesday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We’re looking for a little bit of selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day.

Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Tuesday, September 5, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television. Well, the weekend did pretty much as we expected. We were coming into a long weekend. We were coming into month end. Both of those traditionally have a bullish bias to them, and that’s exactly what happened this week. Now, coming into September, well, September is historically not the best month of the year. Historically, no matter who’s data you look at, September is going to turn out to be the worst month of the year. Whether you’re looking at the 40 years, whether you’re looking at ’54 to 2013, or you’re looking at the last 100, the last 50, or the last 20 years, all of them tell us to expect volatility to expand dramatically in the month of September. Now, knowing that about the month of September, you’d think I would just tell you to run for the hills or short the market on the first trading day of the week, but that’s not the case. We need to be flexible and anticipate that the market could go either way. As we’re coming into the first trading week of September, things are looking pretty bullish at the moment, so there’s no reason to get ahead of the market.

If you’re not an active trader and you’re not willing to short the market or try to take advantage when the market moves down buying the bear ETFs, then I’d advise sitting on your hands for the next 60 days and wait till we get past September and October. The sell-and-may-go-away crowd, the reason that that investment strategy works over time is specifically because people miss all of the volatility in September and October. If you’re not willing to go both ways, if you’re not willing to take a sell signal when it comes up, then it’s probably best if you just sit on your hands for the time being. Now, fear continues to fall. It has fallen for the last two weeks. The weekly VIX is back on a sell signal as a Friday’s close. The daily VIX has been on a cell signal for over a week now and came down and made a new closing low on Friday sitting just above the 12.50 level. We closed at 13:09. Now, if we go back in time, we can see that the 200-day moving average acted as resistance and that held the market in check. If the market is going to make a major move to the downside, we need the VIX out above the 200-day moving average.

Now, last time we were down the levels we’re seeing right now was back in late July. What happened then? Well, you can see the S&P 500 peaked right around that point. It is certainly possible, even though we’re projecting lower prices for the VIX and we’re projecting higher prices for the S&P 500, this could be the time and place that the market wants to take a break and pull back. Pulling back does not mean or guarantee making lower lows. It just means that the market might want to take a break for a few days or a few weeks. Now, moving on to a weekly index chart, starting with the iShares for the TSX60. We had a big move up this week, up nearly 4%. It looks like 29.69 is acting as support right now as expected. Now, we’re looking to see if we can take out 31.25, which is big been a big area of resistance during the year 2023. Now, if we can take out 31.25, then certainly a move back up to the highs from early 2022, up there at 3203 would certainly come into play, but we’re not there just yet. Now, of course, the energy sector has been holding up both sides of the market this year, whether you’re looking at the TSX or the S&P 500.

Here we are up at the previous high, so we could continue to move a lot higher from here. Then looking at the information technology, which is not a big component of the Canadian stock market, but has certainly done very well this week, up nearly 8% on the week. Now, financials have come back from the recent lows. They were up nearly 3% on the week. It’s going to be certainly a different marketplace if we can also get the financials to participate. We’ll be watching those closely. If the financials will participate with the rest of the market on the upside, then we could certainly take out the 31.25 level. Now, the Dow moved up this week, not enough to give us a weekly buy signal. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both moved up generating new weekly buy signals. Of course, the energy sector has been helping the U. S. Market hold up this year. But of course, it’s been more about the technology sector, which is back on a weekly buy signal. The financials have been a drag. They were up over 2% on the week. Again, if we’re going to make higher highs this year, we’re going to need the financial sector to participate.

Now, what’s been holding the U. S. Market up? Of course, a handful of stocks. There we’ve got Apple up over 6% on the week back on a weekly buy signal, joining Invidea still on a weekly buy signal. Joining NVIDIA, still on a weekly buy signal and NVIDIA tapping the $500 level, looking to see if we can break out. There’s Google still doing well, making a new high for this move. What’s not working, of course, and could totally change the whole complexion of the market if the financials would start to participate, so we’re going to keep a close eye on Bank of America, Citi Group. Or if you’re watching the Canadian market, what about the Royal Bank and the TD Bank? Both having inside weeks this week, both closing higher, but still on a weekly sell signals. Now comparing two different investment strategies, we’ve got Berkshire Hathaway up just under two % on the week. Of course, he’s all about selling the losers and keeping the winners. And then if you want to sell the winners and keep the losers, then you’re doing the ARK Innovation, which was up nearly six and a half % on the week.

But certainly you don’t really notice it on the chart that much. So if I can leave you with just one thing, if we never meet again, if we never talk again, when you’re looking at your portfolio, always be upgrading. There’s nothing wrong with taking on rookie players, but after the first season, if they’re not doing well, it’s time to cut them. And then, of course, you’ve got to players that are just getting old and the market doesn’t really have an interest in them anymore and those have to be let loose as well. You should always be upgrading your portfolio. That’s what keeps the major stock market indices moving up over time. It’s not the stocks that they started with, it’s the stocks that they’ve stayed with and added to over time. When you look at the Dow, the S&P 500, the TSX60, you go back 20 years and you’ll notice there’s a lot of stocks missing from those indexes because they’ve come and gone and they’ve been replaced by newer and better stocks. Next up, I want to take a look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 20-day moving average. On this particular chart, we’re looking at the percentage of stocks on the TSX that are currently trading above their 20-day moving average, and we’re coming back up to an overbot condition.

You remember back in June, we were oversold, looking for the market to move up in that summer rally. Then in July, we were overbot. We were looking for it to pull back into August. In August, we were oversold, looking for it to move back up. Here we are, we’re getting back up to the top of the range. There’s certainly no indication of a cell signal just yet. If you’re a member and you want to find these charts in the site, just go over to the menu on the right-hand side of the screen and just go down. You’ll see the TSX, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 are all there. When you bring them up, there are several things you can do. You can change how much data you’re seeing on the screen, whether you’re seeing six months, a year, two years, five years. You can also overlay individual stocks, or in this case, I’m overlaying the TSX60. Now, it’s important to note that the fact that we get to a certain point does not automatically guarantee that the market reverses. It’s just telling you to expect things to change. It’s not telling you that things have changed, but you should expect them.

And looking at the TSX, we’re coming back up to those levels. Now, when we apply the TSX60 over this indicator, so we’re applying an index over top of an indicator, you can see when the indicator peaked, it took a few weeks before the actual index started to move back down. What happens is that a certain number of stocks will take the market up and pull the rest of the market with it. When those stocks that didn’t really participate, when the laggards start to move down, it brings the indicator down. But because all the money went into a handful of big cap stocks, those stocks are still holding the index up, and it takes a while before people actually end up selling those stocks. People will hold on to their winners longer than their losers. When this indicator is going down, you can see it’s being led lower by the losers themselves. Here we are, we’re getting up to the top of the range once again, give it another week before the market wants to take a break. Now, the indicator itself will go from being overbought to oversold up and down, up and down over time.

That doesn’t mean the index itself will do that as well. In a bull market, what we’re looking for is for a new high to be made followed by a higher low, followed by a higher high and a higher low. In September, what we’re going to be looking for is do we take out the August highs? Yes. Then what happens when we pull back? We can pull back in September. It doesn’t have to be significant. In fact, if it’s higher than the previous low, then that is a bullish sign for the rest of the year. We’ll just have to keep an eye on that and see how things work out. But on the TSX, we’re getting back up to an overbought condition on the S&P 500. We haven’t got there yet. That’s also true of the Nasdaq 100. But in both cases, you can see that we had a big decline in August, then we started to turn around off the bottom of the range. Now, what’s rather unique is when we look at the percentage of stocks on the Nasdaq 100 that are currently trading above their 20-day moving average and then overlay the Nasdaq 100 on top, you’ll see that the peaks and the valleys aren’t as easy to spot as they are on the TSX chart.

Why is that? Well, it’s rather unusual. But this year, we only have a handful of stocks really pulling the market higher. As we talked about recently, the number of stocks that are positive for the year is just over 50% on most indices. In the Nasdaq, it’s more than that. But again, it’s really those big cap stocks that haven’t pulled back that much. Anytime that we’ve seen a pullback in the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 20-day moving average, when that indicator is pulled back, it really hasn’t pulled back the market because this market is made up of fewer and fewer stocks than it normally would be. This is a current anomaly that has happened before, but doesn’t happen that often. This is not a normal year for the stock market. Let’s finish off this weekend’s presentation with a little housekeeping. We’ve been doing some database cleaning over the past few weeks. We’ve deleted a whole bunch of symbols. I’d like to continue that. If you have any suggestions, please let us know. What we’ve been doing is going through and just cleaning out some very thinly traded ETFs, for example. I thought the steel ETF would be more popular, and I’m not talking about with our members, but just the market itself.

The steel ETF had a volume of 7,000 shares and change on Friday. Global Water ETF, nearly 16,000 shares on Friday. That’s nothing. There’s lots of China ETFs out there. We got rid of a few of them. You’d think the S&P, China ETF would have more volume than this. But on Friday, it was just nearly 53,000 shares. That’s nothing for a global ETF. Then we got rid of some country ETFs, the iShares for Austria. Nobody cares about the Austria market with only 1,862 shares traded on Friday. We got rid of all the currency ETFs. I’ve always suggested to people that they don’t trade the currency ETFs because there’s really no opportunity for capital gains. The average true range on a currency ETF is not very high. If you want to trade currencies, use the futures contracts, use forex, use something with a lot more leverage than you can get from an ETF. The Australian dollar ETF only traded 2,091 shares on Friday, and that definitely does not belong in our database. If you have any suggestions of anything we could delete from the database, I would really, really, really appreciate hearing from you. We’d love to get rid of another 50 symbols if we could.

We’re going to be adding more symbols this fall, and I’d like to make room for them. The more symbols we have, the longer it takes us to complete our update every day. The more symbols we have, the more chances we could have errors in the database. Your suggestions are very, very welcomed. Okay, folks, that’s all for this weekend’s presentation. August ended on a positive note. September is historically very volatile. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market traded higher for the first week or so and then started to sell off going into the end of the month, not expecting the market to bottom in the middle of the month and end on a positive note. For the month of September, I expect it to probably top in the middle of the month and head lower going into the end of the month. Enjoy the rest of your long weekend. The next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Monday, September 4, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the premarket this morning, things are looking pretty good. Stock index futures and commodities are trading above fair value. Unfortunately, we’ve got employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, and of course, we’re in opposite land. Good numbers are going to be bad for the stock market. Bad numbers are going to be good for the stock market. We’ll just have to wait and see how the market reacts to those numbers. Now, we saw a lot of bearish reversal signals on Thursday. We can use the Dow Diamonds as an example. You can see an outside reversal day. We actually traded higher above the previous day’s high and closed below the previous day’s low, ran up to resistance and reversed. That gives us a bearish reversal signal. Notice that the pros have not taken control in the Dow just yet. This is the time and place where we look for fall through to the downside. Now, we’re not seeing that in the premarket this morning. Of course, it’s in more important how the market closes than how it opens. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Now, what pulled the DAO down on Thursday? Well, three stocks that were already on sell signals starting with UnitedHealthcare, followed by Boeing, followed by American Express. Those were the three biggest losers on the DOW. Now, fear is still falling. We saw the VIX continue to move lower yesterday. So yesterday’s trading action isn’t going to scare us too much. And of course, we’re coming into the long weekend. Now, for the month of August, it was a negative month, but certainly no long term damage was done. A lot of short term damage, but not a lot of long term damage. The biggest winners in North America for the month of August were the marijuana stocks. Now they have lost an enormous amount of their value from their highs a few years ago. At the same time, they’re extremely volatile, so they can often show up as the best performer or the worst performer on any given day, week, or month, and that will continue for quite a while. Here’s a weekly FlyPaper channel chart, and you can see when the market started to really break down back in 2021, and it has not come back. Of course, if you’re trading marijuana stocks, they’re certainly tradable as a long-term investment.

I think they’re still extremely risky even at these price levels. Now, what didn’t work in the month of August? Well, Transports were the biggest loser. As you can see, no major damage done there. Regional Banks, of course, have been in a downtrend for quite a while, so no joy there. Then last up, the TSX Global Base Metal Index was the biggest loser. In the Canadian market, down 7.37% for the month of August. Now looking at the seasonality chart, and this is a long term seasonality chart, you can see we get a nice run up into the middle of September, and then we get a pullback into late September, and then another pullback into October. If you look at recent performance, and this chart is from stock charts, you can see September is typically the worst performing month of the year, even after that big rally during the middle of the month. Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we’re stuck here at resistance and certainly it’s not permanent. We can certainly break out on Friday and head up towards 31.25. Looking at the SPY, you can see we’re still stuck at resistance here. There’s no reason why we can’t break through it on Friday and head up towards those highs from early July.

The Nasdaq is trying to do that so far. It has broken out above the 375 level, heading towards those July highs. Then looking at the semiconductors, we’re still stuck at resistance. You can see if we start breaking out from here, 225 is our next target to the upside. Let’s finish off today’s presentation, taking a look at a couple of technology stocks starting with Shopify. Shopify gapped higher on Thursday. Oddly enough, I actually saw Shopify run a TV commercial during a national U. S. News program on Wednesday night. I have no idea if that’s a normal thing and I have no idea if that was the first time they did it. But just oddly enough on Wednesday night, I saw a commercial. On Thursday, the stock popped. Now, if you had an order in ‘81.25 or 87.50, both of those got filled at the open on Thursday. Where did we open on Thursday? Well, we opened right at 87.50, so your order got filled. If you’ve got an order at 93.75, I would make it a little lower, just below where we peaked back in July. That would probably be a great place to place an order to sell and lock in some more profits on Shopify.

Now, Shopify, gapping higher like that took the TSX Information Technology Index back up to just below the highs from July. If we can continue to move higher on Friday, we could be able to take out those highs. Then looking at ARK Innovations, 43.75 is our next price target, and that’s where we’re stuck. That’s where we closed yesterday. You can see that 45.31 is our next target to the upside. Adobe is right up at the top of our projected trading range, so we could continue to move higher towards 625 if we break out above that on Friday. Then Apple stuck here at 187.50, right at the bottom of the open gap and looking to see if we can move higher and fill that gap on Friday. Then looking at BlackBerry. Blackberry’s had a great week and has moved up and it started to break out above the June highs. And 7.81 is our next price target for BlackBerry. And on the weekly charts, if we want to keep going from here, then 9.38 would be our next target. If you look at what’s been going on, we put in a low back in the fall of 2022.

We’ve put in a series of higher lows in 2023. Now we’re looking to see if we can break out and make a higher high. On a long term basis, 938 would be our next major target. Then looking at Salesforce, a big pop yesterday. But to look at what happened, the public bought up here. The Pros sold it all the way back down here. We’re still a bullish day. Even though if it shows up as a bearish reversal day, it’s still bullish because we certainly did not close below the previous days low. Then looking at price targets, if you had an order in a 225, it got filled at the open and then we came back down and traded through it. It actually opened at 228. That’s where your 225 order would have got filled. 237.50 is our next target, and we certainly hit that back in July. That is still a legitimate target to the upside. Looking at nVidIA, we’re still up here at the previous high, still having trouble breaking through 500. If we can do that, then 531.25 would be our next target. And last up, Tesla. Tesla hasn’t been too excitable this week.

We are trading above the 250 level, but notice the pros have barely come back to take control. Not a lot of enthusiasm for Tesla over the past trading week, but maybe September will change things. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Again, this presentation is being done before the employment numbers come out at 8:30. Of course, good numbers are bad, bad numbers are good. We’ll just have to wait and see how the market reacts. I think most of the volatility in the market is going to be right at the open and then a lot of people are going to head off for their long weekend vacation. That’s all from me. The next time you hear my voice this weekend will be on Monday. I’ll be posting a video on Monday, and then we’ll get back to a regular schedule next week. Again, have a great day. Have a great long weekend. Keep safe and we’ll talk to you again soon.

Stephen Whiteside
Friday, September 1, 2023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday Morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. Commodities are mixed with crude oil higher, while gold is lower on Thursday morning. Now, at the time of this video, we’re still waiting for economic numbers to come out at 830, and that could certainly add to the pre market volatility.

Now, as expected, fear has been falling this week. We are coming up to month end, which is today. We’re also coming up to a three day long weekend. Both of those usually give the market a bullish bias, so we’ve seen the VIX pulling back over the past couple of days. That’s bullish for the market.

We’ve seen the US dollar index pull back. That’s bullish for the market and we’ve seen bond yields pull back. That, of course, is bullish for the market. Looking at the TSX, we’ve traded up through an open gap. Now we’re coming up to resistance at 30.86 on the XIU.

If we can take that out, then it’s a run up to 31.25, which we failed at back in July. So just be aware of that. We are coming up to resistance then. Looking at the Dow Diamonds, we’re looking at 351.56. We should be able to hit that today.

Looking at the SPY, we’re coming up to 453.13 and notice that that is also the bottom of an open gap from back in July. So that could act as resistance then. For the queues, we are trading, currently trading above the 375 level in the pre market this morning, so looking to see if we can take a run back to the high from July. If we can take that out, then 390.63 would be our next mathematical target. The semiconductors are stalled here at 212.50.

We’ve seen money come back into Nvidia this week, running back up to the recent high. We haven’t seen a lot of money come back into Advanced Micro Devices just yet. So a lot of tech stocks have done well this week, including Apple, which has moved up to the bottom of an open gap. At the 187.50 level. We closed at 187.65.

So our next move up is 193.75, but there’s an open gap at 192.37. The top of that open gap is at 192.37. And so that is our next target to the upside for Apple. A lot of tech stocks not participating this week, but certainly not selling off either. Looking at Amazon, looking at Meta, looking at Microsoft, not really participating.

Looking at Shopify, we’ve had a nice move up over the past couple of days. Where have we moved to? 81.25. We closed at 81.21 yesterday with a high of 81.23. So just two cent away from our price target.

If we can take that out, then 87.50 comes into play. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, taking a look at commodities. And we’ve seen money move back into the energy sector this week. We’ve got crude oil back on a buy signal. Nothing going on with gasoline at the moment, but we do have natural gas back on a buy signal.

So with crude oil and natural gas moving up, we’ve seen a new high in Canadian energy stocks on Wednesday. And we’ve got US energy stocks back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s. Close. Now, we saw a little reversal in the metals yesterday. The GLD made a new high.

It’s coming up to 181.25 and the bottom of an open gap from back in July. And so we saw a small reversal yesterday. Still closed higher on the day, unlike silver, which is trading up towards the highs from back in July. Had a reversal day yesterday, giving us a bearish reversal signal. So that could be the start of something.

We’ll look to see if we get fall through to the downside on Thursday. Then looking at the miners themselves, the GDX had a small pullback, small pullback for the XGD, actually closing higher on the day, excuse me, by two cent, but did pull back from a new high. And we had a big reversal for the SIL, closing down two cent after making a new high. And then looking at copper miners, a similar situation. Not a big thrust to the upside yesterday, but we did see a small pullback and we closed down a penny on the day, so nothing conclusive there.

Okay, folks, that is all for today’s presentation. Wouldn’t be surprised if the market traded higher today and tomorrow, but we’ll have to see how the market reacts to those economic numbers coming out at 830 this morning and then we have some more numbers on Friday. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
Thursday, August 31, 2023