Author: admin

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. While commodities are higher, gold’s up $35 in the pre-market on Friday morning. Now, looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. We’ve got some other things that are not supportive for higher stock prices going on at the moment. We’re looking for a close on the VIX above 1371 on Friday to turn us from being short term bullish to being short term bearish. Now, J. P. Morgan is out with earnings this morning, and the stock is up in the pre-market this morning, so we’re still on a buy signal here. No change in trend. Then looking at the US dollar index, we wanted to generate a sell signal here and start trending lower. That hasn’t started yet. Then looking at bond prices, we’re looking for bond prices to move up. They closed higher yesterday, but still, we don’t have a new uptrend for the bond market, which would equate to a downtrend for bond yields. Again, we don’t have that just yet.

Now, we’re still looking at a very mixed market here. Yes, the Dow and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are on buy signals, but much of the rest of the market still has not participated in this recent rally over the past couple of days. You can see the iShares for the Russell 2000 making a new low for this move on Thursday. That’s also true for the iShares for the Microcap Sector. Now, looking at semiconductors, we’re still on a sell signal here. No change. It looks like that open gap acted as resistance, and so far, that is keeping the semiconductors in check. Now, banks are coming out with earnings. The US S&P Bank Index is still on a sell signal, so no change there. Then looking at the Canadian market, the TSX and the TSX-60 both traded down to the lower channel on Thursday. So certainly a mathematical possibility of a sell signal on Friday. Looking at the Canadian Financials, they rolled over yesterday, joining Canadian Banks already on a sell signal. And we have all of the major Canadian banks on sell signals except two. So there’s the Bank of Montreal, the Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC.

Then we’re looking at the National Bank still on a buy signal, and the Royal Bank still on a buy signal. That would change on Friday with a close below $133.30. And if that were to happen, the Royal Bank would join the TD Bank already on a sell signal, coming down quite hard on Monday. Now, I think a lot of people are fairly bullish at the moment. They’re watching some tech stocks lead the market higher. But as we saw, looking at the Russell 2000 and the microcap sector, not everybody’s participating in the current rally. And when we look at the ARK Invest ETFs, whether you’re looking at the Fintech, we’re looking at Genomics, the Innovations ETF, Industrial Innovations, the Internet or Space, none of these ETFs have come back on buy signals this week. So hopefully next week, this rally can start to broaden out If we get the bonds and the US dollar moving in the right direction, so far, that is not the case. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. I’m going to put this out a little before the inflation numbers come out at 8:30 30 this morning, so we could see some additional volatility.

But so far, it looks like the major stock market indices want to open lower, while commodities want to open higher on Friday morning. Have a great day, folks. Have a great weekend. The next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning. Good morning.

CHAPTERS:
0:00 – Pre-Market Analysis
0:36 – JPMorgan Chase Earnings
0:45 – US Dollar Index Trends
0:52 – Bond Market Prices
1:09 – Stock Market Outlook
1:34 – Semiconductor Stocks
1:45 – S&P Bank Index Overview
1:54 – Canadian Stock Market
2:42 – Stock Market Participation
3:20 – Investment Strategy Final Thoughts

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, January 12, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures and commodities are currently trading above fair value. We do have inflation and employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, and that could add to the pre-market volatility. The VIX is still on a sell signal that is supportive for higher stock prices. That would change on Thursday if the VIX were to close above 13.78. Now, we were hoping to get the US dollar index to start falling again. That would be supportive for higher stock prices, but so far that’s not the case. The US dollar index was down slightly. Yesterday, had an inside day, so no change there. And bonds, we want bonds to start moving up to put more downward pressure on bond yields and interest rates. That’s not happening at the moment. If you’re looking at the TLT or the XBB, where we did see money going to bonds in the emerging markets and junk bonds were both up yesterday. Junk bonds are actually back on a buy a buy signal. So a mixed picture in the bond market.

Us dollar index so far not supportive for higher stock prices here, but we’ll see how the market reacts to those numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. Now, the DOW is still on a buy signal here up at all time highs. At the same time, we still have 11 of the Dow 30 stocks on daily sell signals, and we’ll take a look at that in a few minutes. The S&P 500 continued to move up yesterday. We had the Nasdaq continue to move higher on Wednesday as well. Not a lot of joy for the Russell 2000 or for the microcaps. They’re still on sell signals here. Still both trading below the lower channel line. Now, looking at the Canadian market, a very quiet trading on Wednesday for the TSX composite and the TSAX 60. We’ve got mid-caps back on a buy signal, small caps still on a sell signal, and microcaps still on a buy signal here. So a mixed picture. In 2024, it’s been the Communication Services, the telecom stocks that have been holding the TSX up. Now, looking at the Dow 30, 11 of the Dow 30 stocks are still on daily sell signals, and we can go through those fairly quickly.

Still waiting for Apple to generate a buy signal. American Express rolled over on Wednesday, is back on a sell signal, joining Boeing already on a sell signal. Then we’ve got Chevron, Walt Disney, Dow, Honeywell, IBM, and Intel, both still on sell signals. That could certainly change on Thursday. Then we’ve got Nike still on a sell signal, no change there. And last up, Walgreens Boots still on a sell signal, no change in trend there. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Waiting for those economic numbers to come out to see which way the market is going to go. Depending on what happens today, we’ve got more economic numbers coming out on Friday that, again, could change the direction of the market. Again, only time will how the market will react to those numbers. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

CHAPTERS:
0:00 – Pre-Market Analysis
1:11 – Stock Market Opening Bell
1:40 – Canadian Market Overview
2:05 – Dow Jones Industrial Average
2:42 – Market Timing Conclusion

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, January 11, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. We don’t have any major economic numbers coming out this morning. On Thursday and Friday, we’ve got huge numbers, PPI, CPI numbers coming out, and they could certainly add some volatility to the market. Now, we’re getting some bullish signs here. We’re getting some bearish signs. The VIX continue to move lower. It is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. That’s bullish for the market. We’ve also got the Nasdaq VIX back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close, and we’re still waiting for the VIX for the Russell 2000 to generate a sell signal. So the VIX is pointing down, which is bullish for the stock market. Now, what isn’t working? Well, the US dollar index moved up yesterday. That’s not good for stocks. We also saw bond yields move up yesterday. The TLT had an inside day, was down on the day. The XBB had an inside day, was up slightly on the day. So no major change for currencies or bonds. We want the US dollar to go down.

We want bonds to go up. That’s not happening at the moment. The DAO had an inside day on Tuesday. Of course, an inside day is a day of indecision. The big winner on the DOW yesterday was Merck continuing to move higher. The big loser on the DOW yesterday was Verizon, still on a buy signal, no change in trend. Now, looking at the S&P 500, we closed down on the day and we’re trading a little lower in in the pre-market. We still closed above the upper channel line, so that’s a very mixed picture right now. Again, I wouldn’t get overly excited about the market at the moment. Juniper Networks was the big winner on the S&P 500 yesterday, up over 20%, and then the big loser was Hewlett-Packard Enterprise down sharply on the day, back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq moved up yesterday, closed above the upper channel line, so that’s a new buy signal for the triple Qs. The big winner on the Nasdaq 100 was CrowdStrike. The biggest loser was Moderna, having an inside day, so no change in trend there. Then looking at the iShares for the TSX-60, an inside day on Tuesday, closing down slightly on the day.

The big winner on the TSX-60 was Cameco, and the big loser was the TD Bank, back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. What worked on the TSX composite, K92 Mining was the big winner. Up nearly 10% on the day. And the big loser, back on a sell signal, is Tillray, down nearly 10%. Now, the best performing sector in North America on Tuesday was actually Canadian Infotech, up a tick over 1%, and that had a lot to do with Shopify, which was up over 3% on the day. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. It’s a very mixed picture. The fact that the major indices are now all back on buy signals and the VIX back on a sell signal should make me very bullish. At the same time, the bond market, the currency market, isn’t really supporting a higher move at the moment. We’ll just have to wait and see how things work out. We’ve got big numbers coming out on Thursday and Friday, and they will certainly drive the market in a direction which we really don’t know what that direction is going to be right now. So don’t get overly aggressive this week.

It’s not the time and place to go crazy in the market, either being bullish or bearish. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
CHAPTERS:
0:00 – Pre-Market Analysis
0:20 – VIX Volatility Index
0:44 – USD Currency Trends
1:08 – DOW Jones Insights
1:24 – S&P 500 Overview
1:40 – S&P 500 Top Stocks
1:54 – Nasdaq Composite Update
2:10 – TSX Market Watch
2:38 – Top Sectors Today
2:52 – Market Summary
3:23 – Stock Market Timing Tips

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. Well, odly enough, this morning’s stock index futures look very similar to what they looked like at this time yesterday morning. But during the day yesterday, Nvidia came out with some news and Nvidia moved up sharply higher back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. Now that had ripple effects across the markets yesterday and it is a one day event.

And I’m not going to get overly excited about what happened yesterday. A lot of things didn’t change at all and we’ll go through some of those semiconductors were up sharply yesterday. Still on a sell signal. No change there. We do have some other big cap tech stocks that we follow back on buy signals.

I wouldn’t chase any of these on Tuesday. We’ve got Meta, we’ve got Microsoft, we’ve got Shopify all on buy signals as of Monday’s close. What didn’t work? Well, Apple and Tesla are still on sell signals, so no change there. Now the real winners on Monday were actually the biotech sector and we saw the index up over 4% on the day, being led higher by Amgen and Moderna.

We also had other stocks in the pharmaceutical area also do well, including Abbot labs making a new high for this move on Monday. Now the triple qs traded up into the channel yesterday, not enough to give us a buy signal. The Dow Diamond still on a buy signal. The SPY ETF is back on a buy signal as of Monday’s close. I would wait and see if we get another close above the upper channel line before I would do anything.

The ishares for the TSX 60 made a new high yesterday for this move and still on a buy signal. No change there. Now the VIX came down to the lower channel line yesterday, did not close below it. So on Tuesday we’re looking for a close below 12.93. No change in trend for the VIX, for the Nasdaq, or for the Russell 2000.

Now I’d feel a little more bullish this morning if any of the VIX indices were back on sell signals. I’d also feel a bit more bullish this morning if the US Dollar Index started to trend lower and yesterday it had an inside day. I’d also be a little more bullish if we saw more buying in the bond market. The TLT closed higher yesterday, but didn’t close above the previous day’s high, and the XBB closed higher on Monday. But it had an inside day, so no real changes for the US dollar index or for the bonds.

Looking at commodities, crude oil closed lower yesterday, didn’t take out last week’s low just yet. We are looking for a close above 74.20 to give us a buy signal on Tuesday. Natural gas had a wide bar yesterday. It made a new high for this move, then closed slightly lower on the day, so no change there. Canadian energy stocks still on a buy signal.

That would change on Tuesday if the XEG closed below $15.62. We do have a lot of energy stocks that look like this. Cenovus is on a sell signal right now. At the same time, TC Energy and Enbridge made new highs on Monday. Then looking at us energy stocks, they’re back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close.

A lot of us energy stocks look like Conoco Phillips and Occidental Petroleum at the same time. We’ve got Phillips 66 still on a buy signal. That would change on Tuesday with a close below $133.16. Now the price of gold was down $16 yesterday. Still on a sell signal here it’s up $7 in the pre market.

We also have silver trading higher in the pre market. In both cases, it would not be enough to change the trend. New low for this move for the GDX and the XGD at the same time, silver stocks are holding Friday’s low, so no change there. Barrick traded right up to the upper channel line on Monday, so a close above 23.90 would give us a buy signal for Barrick on Tuesday. No joy for Kinross.

New low for this move. No joy for B2Gold. Looks like it wants to try to hold $4 as support there. We’ll have to keep an eye on that and see if we can get any upward momentum for B2Gold. And last up this morning, Boeing is still in the news again today.

It is trading lower once again in the pre market this morning. Not taking out yesterday’s low just yet, but certainly no change in direction for Boeing on Tuesday morning. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Yesterday was a wild day. It was led higher by Nvidia.

I wouldn’t chase anything on Tuesday. Yesterday was a one day event. We’re looking for fall through to the upside on Tuesday. And so far from what we’re seeing in the pre market this morning, the market just doesn’t want to do that. So if you have a symbol that generated a buy signal from Monday’s trading action, you can wait for the next close above the upper channel line to confirm that buy signal.

Otherwise, I would just stand aside on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction
[00:00:30]: Market Recap
[00:01:14]: Biotech Sector Performance
[00:01:41]: ETF Signals
[00:02:01]: Market Sentiment Indicators
[00:02:34]: US Dollar and Bond Market Update
[00:02:57]: Commodities Review
[00:03:19]: Energy Stocks Analysis
[00:03:41]: Precious Metals Update
[00:04:23]: Boeing News

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, January 9, 2024

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. Gold’s down $22. Crude oil is down $2.

The Dow is down, leading the stock index futures lower. And that has a lot to do with one stock, and that is Boeing. And Boeing’s down over 8% in the pre market on Monday morning. So that’s where you’re getting a lot of the weakness from. Now, last week was all about technology stocks with semiconductors leading the tech sector lower.

You can see that on Tuesday we gapped lower. On Wednesday we gapped lower. And on Thursday we gapped lower. So a lot of aggressive selling in the semiconductors last week. If we look at where we can get support, we’re currently holding support at the 50 day moving average at the top of the Fly Paper Channel.

And you can see that there is a lot of potential support down of the $200 level. So we may be heading in that direction this week. Now, Apple was a big loser last week as well. And of course, being the biggest company in the world, it is going to have an effect on all the major stock market indices. And that is certainly what happened last week.

We’re trying to hold 180. If 180 breaks, then 175 is our next target to the downside. Now, looking at the weekly chart of the VIX, the VIX was up last week over 7%. We’re still going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.39 this coming Friday. Now, if you’re watching the market on Monday, we’re coming into Monday’s trading action with the VIX on a buy signal.

So short term, we’re bearish on the market. That would change on Monday if the VIX were to close below 12.87. Now, even with Apple being in the Dow, the Dow actually held up fairly well last week. So we’re still on a buy signal. That will probably change on Monday if the Dow diamonds close below 373.56.

And we’ve got the ishares for the TSX 60 still trading and closing above the upper channel line. So holding up very well last week when you compare that to the S&P 500 already on a sell signal. And of course, technology stocks in the Nasdaq led the market lower last week. And we saw weakness in the Equal Weighted and the Next Generation Nasdaq 100 stocks. We also saw weakness in the Russell 2000 and the micro cap sector.

So a lot of weakness across the board, outside of the Dow 30 and the TSX 60. Then, looking at a weekly chart of the S&P 500, we did close below the previous week’s low. We do have an early warning signal on the weekly panic zone chart. And the pros are starting to turn down. They’re nowhere near giving up control this week.

But that’s not a very bullish looking chart at the present time. Now, looking at the Canadian stock market, yes, we have held up over the past week. We’ve been stuck at resistance here, looking at the TSX composite index. If we can take out the recent high, then our next mathematical target is 21,250, both on the daily and the weekly charts. And so that is certainly doable, but not on Monday, because we’re seeing a little selling in the commodity sector, and that’s not going to help the Canadian stock market on Monday.

Now, there’s a big difference between the canadian stock market and the US stock market, even though we’re holding up fairly well right now. When we look at the Nasdaq 100 and we’re looking at a weekly Fly Paper Channel chart, you can see that we started to turn up in early 2023, and that trend is still heading higher. We’re making new highs up here, and we’re using the Fly Paper Channel as support. So if we were to pull back, we would look for a pullback to the Fly Paper Channel and then look for buying opportunities from that point. Now, you can see that the Nasdaq 100 has been trending higher.

It’s kind of hard to see that upward trend on the TSX, the TSX 60, or the mid caps or even small caps. Small caps definitely trending lower, and micro caps certainly trending lower. So the canadian market has a couple of pockets that have been doing well, but otherwise, it’s not looking very good. Now, energy stocks, of course, have been in the news all through 2023, and we made a high in 2022. We haven’t been back there yet.

Now, this is a very confusing chart because it’s got something for everybody. For the bears, we’ve made a series of lower highs. So that’s very bearish. There’s a high lower high, lower high now for the bulls. Hey, what have we got?

We got higher lows, and it looks like we recently put in another higher low. So something for everybody here. We’re still using the Fly Paper Channel as support. That hasn’t broken yet. So looking for buying opportunities in the energy sector that might not see any follow through on Monday given what commodity prices are doing now.

Financials over the past couple of weeks popped out of the top of the Fly Paper Channel and took a run at the highs from early 2023. And so it’ll be interesting to see if we can get any fall through to the upside. We might be able to if bank stocks can keep going. They’re stuck on the Fly Paper Channel, but we still got some room to go to get back up to those 2023 highs. And so that is certainly doable at this time.

Move up to the 420 area, then looking at gold stocks. We’re stuck in the Fly Paper Channel right now. And again, remember, we’re looking at weekly charts here. We’ve also got the base metals stuck in the Fly Paper Channel. The industrials are still using the Fly Paper Channel as support.

And there is certainly a trend higher here that is very obvious. And we’ve also got a trend higher in the infotech sector. This chart looks very similar to the Nasdaq 100. So you can see that, yes, we did get some action in the tech sector last year, but tech sector is a lot smaller in the canadian market than it is in the US market. And then materials in the Fly Paper Channel, no joy there.

No joy for real estate, no joy for the telcos. So canadian market looking much different than the US market at the present time. The TSX 60 is holding up very well, but certainly we’re not getting the kind of excitement they’re getting in the US from the tech sector. Let’s finish off with the big five charts. And we were wanting to see the US dollar index continue to move lower.

That didn’t happen last week. So the US dollar index moved up. That put downward pressure on stocks. We also wanted to see bonds continue to move higher. They had a pullback last week that put upward pressure on bond yields.

We didn’t want to see that happen. That’s not good for stocks. So hopefully those trends can reverse. Then looking at the price of gold down $22 on the week, it’s down another $20 in the pre market this morning. So still trading above $2,000.

That of course will be a psychological breaking point if we start trading back down below $2,000 and then looking at crude oil. Crude oil was up on the week. It’s down about that amount in the pre market this morning. So no joy for the energy sector. The energy sector falling can certainly help the consumer.

But for stock investors, we were hoping that crude oil could head up from here and help push energy stocks back up once again. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far. It looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Monday morning. And with the VIX on a buy signal right now, that’s kind of what we’re expecting to happen at the present time.

Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:00:35]: Semiconductor Selling and Support Levels
[00:01:12]: Apple’s Performance and VIX Analysis
[00:01:59]: Dow, TSX 60, and Market Signals
[00:02:47]: S&P and Canadian Stock Market
[00:03:20]: Nasdaq and Canadian Market Comparison
[00:04:23]: Energy Sector Analysis
[00:05:22]: Financials and Gold Stocks Outlook
[00:06:29]: US Dollar Index and Commodity Prices
[00:07:38]: Conclusion and Market Expectations

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, January 8, 2024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. Commodities are mixed with crude oil higher, while gold is slightly lower on Friday morning.

Now I’m doing this video ahead of the payroll numbers that come out at 830 this morning and they could certainly add to the pre market volatility. Looking at the VIX, we’re going to remain short term bearish on the market as long as the VIX does not close below 12.77 on Friday. Now the DOW 30 and the TSX 60 are still holding up. No change in trend for either of those. The S&P 500 already on a sell signal, no change there.

Big reversal day yesterday for the energy sector on both sides of the border. We’re still on buy signals, no change there. Then looking at technology stocks with the Nasdaq 100 continuing to move lower, the Equal Weighted and the Next Generation are both down as well. Not as much yesterday as the Nasdaq 100, but chip stocks continue to lead the tech sector lower with semiconductors down 1.73% on the day. Then looking at the big elephant in the room, Apple.

Apple continued to move lower on Thursday, making a new low for this move. Looking at Canadian Infotech, we actually closed higher yesterday. Didn’t get any help from BlackBerry but did get a lot of help from Shopify which was up on the day after making a new low for this move. Now looking at the TSX, most actives from Thursday’s trading action, we’ve got the TD Bank still on a buy signal, no change there. TC Energy continued to move higher on Thursday.

Baytex had a pullback, still on a buy signal, no change there. Then we had Cenovus come down and Cenovus is now back on a sell signal as of Thursday’s close. Bank of Nova Scotia still on a buy signal here, that would change on Friday with a close below $62.80. Then Manulife still on a buy signal, that would change on Friday with a close below $28.77. New high for this move for Suncor ran up, hit the next price target of $45.31.

Congratulations if you’re long. Suncor. Then looking at Enbridge, new high for Enbridge on Thursday. Looking at First Quantum, a small pullback yesterday, down just 1.81% on the day. So no major change there. And then Bitfarms, Bitfarms been trading around the lower channel line for the last couple of days.

Looking for a close on Friday below $3.71. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation. Taking a look at the US most actives from Thursday’s trading action and Quantumscape. The battery company had a huge update, up over 40%. Obviously you’re not going to chase that.

Then Tesla had an inside day. No change there. Marathon digital still on a buy signal here. That would change on Friday with a close below $22.92. Then we saw Walgreens gap lower on the day.

Trying to recover going into the close, but still a big loss for Walgreens. Back on a sell signal. Advanced Micro Devices, no change in trend there. Amazon, no change in trend. No change in trend for Ford.

Then we’ve got Pure Storage. And on Tuesday, Pure Storage actually ended on a sell signal. You come in the next morning, you check the spread in the pre market, you find out it’s going to open up up there so you don’t take that sell signal. So no change in trend for Pure Storage. Then we’ve got intel still on a sell signal, no change there.

Pfizer, still on a buy signal, no change there. And then we’ve got Palantir still on a sell signal, making a new low for this move on Thursday. So no change in trend for Palantir. Okay folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far.

It looks like the market wants to do a little selling, but that could change when those employment numbers come out at 830. Have a great day, have a great weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Monday morning channel.

0:00 – Stock Market Introduction
0:24 – VIX Volatility Index Analysis
0:33 – Stock Indices Overview
0:43 – Energy Sector Stocks
0:51 – Technology Stock Trends
1:13 – Apple Stock Update
1:35 – TSX Active Stocks
2:45 – US Market Active Stocks
3:59 – Stock Market Timing Conclusion

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Friday, January 5, 2024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are mixed. We’ve got the Nasdaq futures trading lower while we’ve got gold trading higher on Thursday morning. While yesterday we saw the VIX continue to move higher, hasn’t taken out the recent high, but it closed above the upper channel line.

So we are back on a buy signal that of course is negative for stocks. North American markets were led lower yesterday by US Retail, followed by US Regional Banking and then Semiconductors which gapped lower. Then looking at the Dow, it is still on a buy signal. That would change on Thursday with a close below 373.09. Then the S&P 500 is back on a sell signal, joining the Nasdaq already on a sell signal.

And then we saw aggressive selling in mid cap, small cap and micro cap stocks on Wednesday. Now the energy sector had a huge intraday reversal on Wednesday. Crude oil made a new low before reversing and closing higher on the day, joining natural gas which also moved up on the day. And it was the TSX Energy Sector that led the North American markets higher on Wednesday. It actually did that on the previous day and we got that nice big pop yesterday and traded above the open gap.

So that open gap is no longer an area of resistance. Now the ishares for the TSX 60 were down slightly, still closing above the upper trend line. Things would change on Thursday with a close below $31.63. Now gold rolled over on Wednesday down over $30. And that joining silver which was already on a sell signal.

And we saw gold and silver stocks continue to move lower on both sides of the border whether you’re looking at the GDX or the XGD. Now looking at the most actively traded canadian stocks. Number one was the TD Bank, still closing at the upper channel line. Then we had a huge update for Suncor on Wednesday. We saw First Quantum continue to move higher up another 11%.

Then we’ve got TC Energy back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. And we’ve got Baytex back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Looking at the US most actives, we saw Tesla continue to move lower on Wednesday. Marathon dipped below the lower channel line before reversing. Then we had SoFI big down day there closing down nearly 14% on the day.

Then we’ve got Ford back on a sell signal and we’ve got Advanced Micro Devices already on a sell signal continuing to move lower on Wednesday. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. It looks like we’re going to have a mixed open on Thursday, waiting for the rest of the market to continue to roll over. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

[00:00:00]: Market Overview
[00:00:23]: Market Performance
[00:00:51]: Energy Sector Movement
[00:01:22]: Gold and Silver Market Update
[00:01:44]: Canadian Stock Update
[00:02:09]: US Most Actives Overview
[00:02:35]: Stock Signals Update

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, January 4, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board, so so far it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Wednesday morning. Now, the first trading day of 2024 has come and gone and it was a pretty cloudy day. We saw a big move up in the US dollar index, which can be negative for stocks. We saw bonds selling off yesterday, which of course, can be negative for stocks. So so far, things are not looking very good. Now, crude oil was down yesterday. That’s good for the economy, but not necessarily good for investors. While natural gas traded higher, gold was fairly stable yesterday. It’s down $16 in the premarket this morning. That’s not a good sign. Gold is chasing silver already back on a daily sell signal. Now, the DOW was able to hold its own on Tuesday. That had a lot to do with one sector of the market, and that is US Health Care, which was the best performer in North America on Tuesday. You can see a couple of the DOW 30 stocks led the healthcare sector higher, which was Merck and Amgen.

Then we also have a couple of stocks that all of these stocks are in the S&P 500, some Moderna and Viatris. Viatris is up over 5% on the day. If you own any of these stocks and you haven’t been systematically taking money off the table, Wednesday would be a good day to lock in some profits. But again, there is no reason to completely liquidate a position. There’s nothing wrong with selling into strength, and we certainly had strength on Tuesday. Now, the VIX for the S&P 500 is pretty close to a buy signal right now. It certainly traded through the upper channel line yesterday. It traded right up to the tether line on the midterm chart. So that’s looking like options traders are getting a little nervous at the moment. We did not get a sell signal in the S&P 500 on Tuesday. That would happen on Wednesday with a close below 471.08. Now, the VIX for the Nasdaq, a little more elevated already on a buy signal. And we saw the Nasdaq 100 roll over yesterday. Remember coming into this week, we had a lot of window dressing, a lot of panic buying over the last couple of weeks, and now we’re seeing those people unwind those positions.

They don’t need them anymore. We’re seeing some selling, whether that continues or not is another story yet to be written, but we’ll just have to take the signals as they come. The biggest loser on the Nasdaq 100 yesterday was MongoDB, which was down over  6% on the day, and then followed by Advanced Micro Devices, which was down nearly 6% on the day. But I think the biggest drag was probably those Magnificent Seven stocks, and we had a gap lower for Apple. That you don’t see very often, and then the rest of the Magnificent Seven, most of them generated sell signals. We’re looking at Amazon, we’re looking at Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and then Shopify on both sides of the border, back on a sell signal, joining Tesla already on a sell signal. Looking at the Canadian market, the ice price for the TSX 60 had a fairly quiet day, closing down just nine cents on the day. On Wednesday, we’re looking for a close below $31.59 to give us a new sell signal for the iShares for the TSX 60. What worked on the TSX? Well, the energy sector was up on the day, but as you can see, we’re in the channel, so we’re not trending at the moment, even though we’re on a buy signal.

We do have an open gap above the recent high that could act as resistance going forward. And so far, it does not look like the pros are interested in taking control. Yes, we’re on a buy signal, but we’re in the channel, which is not trending and the pros have not taken control. That’s not looking like it’s going to work out. What worked? Well, First, Quantum was the biggest winner on the TSX. Of course, this is a very High Risk stock. It is on a buy signal right now. The pros are starting to take control. We hit our next price target of 12.50. 15.63 and 18.75 are the next two targets to the upside. If we look at the Fly Paper Channel, you can see it’s up at $20, but it is coming down daily. So it is going to intersect with that 18.75 level over the next few days. So that is the opportunity. But remember, it is a very high risk opportunity. This company is one press release away from being a zero. Then looking at what didn’t work. Well, Brookfield was a big loser yesterday. It is still on a buy signal that would change on Wednesday with a close below 51.70. Then we’ve got Open Text back on a sell signal.

We had a big down day for Lightspeed trading down to the lower channel line. So a close below $25.53 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. Then Nuvei is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close. Now last up this morning, looking at the biggest Canadian stock, which is the Royal Bank. We’ve had several early warning signals up there. It still hasn’t moved much. It was only down to five cents yesterday. We’re looking for a close below 131.78 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal for the Royal Bank. The pros don’t look like they want to give up control at the moment. We hit the 134.38 level a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re looking at our next price target, which is 137.50, which is also our next weekly target. You can see that we got a little higher than that back at the start of 2023. A year ago, we were up at that level. The Royal Bank might want to stretch up to the 137.50 level before starting to pull back. But so far, coming into Wednesday’s trading action, we don’t really have anything to be concerned about.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Wednesday morning. We came into this week very overbought, and we certainly had some panic buying in late December, and we need to work that off. Whether that turns into a longer term downtrend is yet to be determined. But so far from Tuesday’s trading action, we did generate a lot of daily sell signals. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 – Pre-Market Analysis

0:14 – US Stock Market Overview

0:50 – Dow Jones Industrial Average

1:31 – S&P 500 Insights

1:55 – Nasdaq Composite Index

2:57 – Canadian Stock Market

4:42 – Royal Bank of Canada Stock

Stephen Whiteside

TheUpTrend.com

Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning, the first trading day of 2024. In the pre market this morning, stock index futures are trading below fair value. Dow futures currently down just under 200 points, while commodities are higher. According to Bloomberg, the TSX 60 is trading down $4 and change right now. We closed up over $2 and change on Friday, so not looking for any major damage to the TSX on Tuesday morning.

Now, in today’s presentation, we’ll start off the year with a quick recap of what happened in 2023. And the TSX did end the year higher. Most of the gains came in the last nine weeks, and I’ll just hold my mouse there, but the TSX ended up 8.12%. Compare that to the Nasdaq, which was up over 50%. And it was really not a very productive year for the TSX.

Most of the gains came when the VIX reversed and generated a sell signal. And the VIX, or the Fear Index, is something we watch very closely. When the VIX is trending lower, we want to be bullish on the market. When it’s trending higher, we want to be bearish on the market. And right now, it’s really stopped trending over the last couple of weeks.

So we’re still on a weekly sell signal that should be bullish for the market. But we’re not expecting the market to go much higher from here at the present time. Now, it was a very mixed market. There was only 126 stocks on the TSX Composite that ended the year higher. 98 were unchanged or lower.

So getting pretty close to 50% of the stocks on the TSX composite did not do well last year. Now, the focus was in the US. They called it the Magnificent Seven. We added Shopify to that list for our Magnificent Eight, and that’s where most of the gains came from. And those gains were also seen in Canada, where the infotech sector was up over 55% on the year, being led higher by Celestica on the TSX Composite and Shopify on the TSX 60.

And we also saw Constellation Software up over 50% on the year. So that’s where most of those gains came from. Now, the biggest and most important sector of the canadian stock market, of course, is the financials. And the financials ended the year pretty close to the gains that we saw from the TSX heading up towards the highs of early 2023. And again, we made most of our gains in the last nine weeks of the year.

At the same time, a couple of the major banks ended the year underwater, and those were the bank of Nova Scotia and the TD bank. And probably the best stock in Canada and the Berkshire Hathaway of Canada is Fairfax, which ended the year up over 50%. So if you have to have one stock in your portfolio for a long term investment, it’s probably going to be Fairfax. Now, the marijuana sector was the biggest loser, and of course, the TSX itself has taken away the index, and so people aren’t thinking about this sector as much as they used to. We’re looking at the Horizons

Marijuana Life ETF, which was down over 20%. You can see when Bay street gave up on this sector back here in early 2021, and we’re not expecting it to come back to those levels. If you are playing this sector, there’s still opportunities here. It’s certainly tradable, but your playing field has to be the highs from 2023 and the lows of 2022. That’s basically your playing field.

You don’t want to be having targets above that level because they’re very unrealistic. The whole dynamics of this particular sector has changed and you have to deal with being more realistic about your opportunities in this sector. But certainly there’s the possibility of 10, 20, 30 or 40% gains in this sector if it’s going to trend higher in 2024. Now, looking at commodities starting with gold, gold is on a buy signal right now heading up, and it’s in a range between 1875 at the lower end of the range and 2125 at the higher end of the range. And we’re above the midpoint at the moment, so that’s looking pretty bullish.

Unfortunately, gold stocks are not totally in sync with the price of gold and they ended the year up 2.36%. The biggest winner from the major gold stocks we follow, ElDorado, was up over 50% on the year. Looking at the energy sector. Well, crude oil ended the year basically unchanged. Natural gas underwater and energy stocks as a whole were down nearly 1% on the year.

The biggest winner in the energy sector was Athabasca. The biggest loser was Birchcliffe for the year. Now, if we’re going to buy low and sell high, one of the indicators we can look at is the percentage of stocks currently trading above x. And if we look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above the 50 day moving average, you can see we’re up at the top of the range here, and so we’re looking at high risk opportunities. If you want to chase stocks up here, if there’s new buy signals you’re taking on high risk.

This is the time and place. We want to be looking for sell signals and shorting opportunities and to buy puts, depending on which market you’re looking at. And you can see down at the bottom when the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50 day moving average gets down near the 20 and below. That’s when we look for low risk buying opportunities. And so coming into January, we’re at the high risk end of the range and looking for the market to pull back here into the month of January.

When we look at the seasonality chart, we look for a tradable high in September. We look for lows in October, and then we look for a year end rally. And that’s what we got. Last nine weeks did pretty well. And coming into January, it’s usually negative for the canadian stock market with a rise into February.

And of course, February gives us RRSP seasons where people make put deposits in, and it’s usually in low risk opportunities. You’re talking to your bank teller, of course they want to sell you the bank’s etfs. And those etfs, of course, include bank stocks. So we usually get a nice buying opportunity into the end of February and then a pullback into March. So that’s what we’re expecting to happen.

Of course, we’re going to watch the market and see which way the market wants to go in 2024. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We’re looking for some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

[00:00:00]: Introduction and Market Overview
[00:00:30]: Recap of 2023 Performance
[00:00:55]: Importance of the VIX and Market Trends
[00:01:14]: TSX Composite Performance and Sector Gains
[00:02:05]: Focus on the Financial and Marijuana Sectors
[00:03:03]: Opportunities in the Marijuana Sector
[00:04:05]: Performance of Gold and Energy Sectors
[00:04:56]: Analyzing High and Low Risk Opportunities
[00:05:25]: Seasonality and Market Expectations
[00:06:11]: Conclusion and Market Outlook

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, January 2, 2024