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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. While it is very early in the morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value. Commodities are mixed with crude oil higher while gold is lower in the pre market on Wednesday morning. Well, yesterday we saw a little bit of tension in the market.

The VIX is back on a buy signal as of Tuesday’s close. Things would change on Wednesday with a close below 13.59. Now, it was the Dow that rolled over yesterday. The Nasdaq was the biggest loser, but the Dow actually generated a sell signal. Now again, for people that are new, this is a short term sell signal.

More conservative investors are going to need more evidence before they start selling. The Dow Diamonds stuck up here at 390. 63. And as you can see on the midterm chart, we have a little ways to go before we actually generate a sell signal. It was all about technology stocks yesterday. Intel was the biggest loser on the Dow.

It’s still on a buy signal. No change there. Salesforce was the second biggest loser, down over 5% on the day. Trading down to the lower channel line. Still looking for a close on Wednesday below 296 24 to give us a new daily sell signal.

We do have a change in trend for Microsoft. Back on a sell signal, putting in a lower high. We had trouble getting over 421.80. That is still a major area of resistance for Microsoft. Apple continued lower down nearly 3% on the day, heading towards our next target of 168.75.

Then we’ve got Unitedhealth Group making a new low for this move on Tuesday. Now one stock that the market is still concerned about, of course, is New York Community Bank Corp. It made a low on Monday inside day on Tuesday. Inside days are basically pause days, so that has not been resolved yet. And then what did work on Tuesday?

Well, Nvidia actually closed higher on the day. It is trading up in the pre market this morning. Our next price target is 875, which we’ve previously hit. It is trading below that level in the pre market on Wednesday morning. Now Shopify has been on a sell signal for a few weeks now, so no change there.

We’ve got Tesla back on a sell signal on Monday, fallow through to the downside on Tuesday, looking to see if it can hold the February low. Let’s finish off this morning’s presentation, taking a look at commodity stocks. And we’ll start off with the miners. And we’ve got copper still on a buy signal here. Copper miners traded down to the lower channel line yesterday.

So certainly a potential for a sell signal on Wednesday. We had a lot of bearish reversal signals on Tuesday. The price of gold wasn’t. The GLD is trading up towards 200. It’s trading slightly lower in the pre market this morning.

Now, we do have a bearish reversal signal for the gold miners. It traded up to the previous high and pulled back. Now, it did not close lower on the day and it did not close below the previous day’s low. So it is a very weak bearish reversal signal for the big cap miners. They were up over half a percent.

The junior miners were up just slightly on the day, so there’s not as much interest in the juniors at the moment. And of course, we’d love to see more interest in the juniors than the big caps. Silver reversed yesterday, closing lower on the day. There’s the SLV closing lower on the day. After making a new high for this move, and then looking at silver miners again, we made a new high for this move.

This is this move right here. But unfortunately we closed lower on the day, so that is a bit of a concern. Looking at the energy sector, starting off with crude oil, we pulled back in the channel yesterday. A close below 72.87 would give us a sell signal for the USO on Wednesday. Gasoline is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday’s close.

You can see we put in a lower high last Friday. And then looking at natural gas, we’re still on a buy signal here. Moving up on Tuesday. Now, looking at the major energy etfs for the big caps, we’re still on a buy signal here. No change.

No change for the small cap energy stocks. We closed slightly higher on the day we’ve closed in the channel for the past couple of days. So a little concern there. Looking for a close on Wednesday below 51.43. Now, anytime you’re looking at an ETF or an index, it’s a group of stocks, so it is going to filter out the best performers and the worst performers.

In this case, the only energy stock in the Dow 30 is Chevron. It’s been on a sell signal for a few days now. Now, the best performing energy stock on the S&P 500 from Tuesday’s trading action is Baker Hughes, which has barely moved since generating a buy signal over a week ago. On the other hand, the best performing big cap energy stock is Diamondback, which is up about 20% in the last month. Yesterday had an inside day and looking for a close on Wednesday below 176.51.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. Looking for a positive open on Wednesday. From what we’re seeing so far, we do have some economic numbers coming out today. We’ve got some job numbers. And then, of course, we have the energy numbers coming out later in the morning, which could change the direction of the market.

Have a great day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. And at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, US Stock Index futures are trading below fair value. At the same time, commodities are trading higher, which could put a bid into the Canadian market on Tuesday. Starting off by looking at the US market and looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a sell signal that’s supportive for higher stock prices. Things would change on Tuesday if the VIX were to close above 14.29. Then Semiconductors continued to move higher on Monday. We saw a new high for NVIDIA, hitting our next price target of 875 before pulling back. The DOW had a very quiet day. It had an inside day on Monday. Very quiet day for the S&P 500. The big winner on the S&P 500 was HPE, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, and it was up over 10% on the day. What didn’t work yesterday was Tesla. Tesla rolled over. It is back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Still dealing with that open gap from January. Then looking at the Nasdaq 100, very quiet day. Apple continued to move lower yesterday. Our next price target was 175.

We closed at 175.10. If we take out yesterday’s low, we would assume that we would head down to 168.75. Now, the most actively traded US stock on Monday was the Regional Bank, New York Community Bank Corp, which was down another 23%. The market doesn’t seem to be as worried about this regional bank falling apart as it did last year, but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. And of course, if this Regional bank implodes, we don’t know what other financial institutions it’s going to take down with it. Looking at the Canadian stock market, starting off looking at the iShares for the TSX-60, it was an inside day on Monday, so no change there. What worked on Monday? Well, it was materials, and of course, that includes the gold stocks. Our real estate industrials and financials were the winners. What didn’t work? Well, it was the rest of the market, and we’ll take a look at the energy sector in a second. Taking a look at gold stocks, We saw the TSX Global Gold Index lead the North American markets higher on Monday, up over 4% on the day. The price of gold continued to move higher on Monday, so did the price of silver.

Looking at the most actively traded gold stocks, it was a Kinross was the number one, then followed by B2Gold, then Barrick, then a Agnico Eagle. Now, gold stocks may get some US attention this time. Newmont, which is in the S&P 500, it’s the only gold stock in the S&P 500 was actually the second best performer on the S&P 500 on Monday. Looking at the energy sector, we saw the iShares for the TSX Energy sector pulled back. Yesterday had an inside day, did not close below the previous day’s low. We had a similar situation for the price of crude oil. We saw natural gas up over 4% on the day. Natural gas is on a buy signal right now. Then looking at the stock house bullboards, the stock that people are watching the most is Bayex, which is on its third day of a sell signal. Then we had Whitecap make a new high for this move. We had an outside reversal day for Suncor. It shows up as a bearish reversal day here, and you can see where we’ve had bearish reversal days before. Bearish reversal signal is a one-day event. We’re looking to see if we get follow through to the downside on Tuesday.

Then looking at Athabasca, a new closing high for that stock, and We’re up at our next price target of 5.08. And then looking at Tamarack, a new high there. Hit our next price target of 3.52. So congratulations. Then Kelt was the best-performing energy stock on the TSX on Monday, up at 2.14% for the day. Let’s finish off looking at financials and looking at the iShares for the financial sector. Still on a buy signal here. Then looking at the BMO Bank ETF, a new high for this move on Monday. Bank of Nova Scotia, which for a lot of 2023 was the dog of the banking sector, made a new high for this move. We also saw a new high for CIBC. Fairfax, which had a huge A huge pullback a couple of weeks ago when some short sellers took a run at it, has completely recovered and on Monday made a new high for this move. Then the TSX also made a new high. It’s one of my favorite Canadian financial stocks. On the other hand, TD Bank rolled over. It is back on a sell signal as of Monday’s close. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

It looks like we’re going to have a mixed open. The Nasdaq is leading the US indices lower. At the same time we have gold and crude oil trading higher on Tuesday morning, and that could help the Canadian market. Have a great day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning, and at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the US stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. So so far, it looks like we’re going to see a little selling at the open on Monday morning. Let’s start off looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, and the VIX is still on a sell signal. That is supportive for higher stock prices on a long-term basis. If we look at a daily chart of the VIX, again, we’re still on a sell signal here. And as long as we close below 14.42 on Monday, we will remain short term bullish on the market. Now, on Friday, I was going to do a review of February, but unfortunately, I wasn’t feeling very well last week and couldn’t do it. So just looking at the charts from February, you can see the S&P 500 was up over 5 %. Looking at the seasonality chart, typically we peak in the middle of February and then sell off into the middle of March. We may or may not do that, but that’s what the seasonality chart tells us to expect.

Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq was up again over 5 %, making a new high here. Again, we’re looking for a peak in the middle of February and then selling into March. So far, that certainly has not started and may not start. Seasonality charts are no guarantee. It’s just an average of what happens at this time of the year. Now, looking at the TSX, we are up 1.63% on the month. And looking at the seasonality chart, we usually get buying into the end of RRSP season, which ended last week, and now we expect the market to sell off into the middle of March. Again, that has not started. Then looking at a seasonality chart of the VIX, you can see the VIX Rockets sharply higher during the month of March. Again, there’s no guarantee that this is going to happen. If we look at the chart over the last year, you can see that we did spike at this time last year. And then if we go back two years, Just the whole first quarter, we saw the VIX being highly elevated, getting up over 38 before coming back down into the month of April.

Now, stocks to watch, one that I’m watching closely right now is New York Community Bank Corp, which gapped lower on Friday. It’s not something I’m going to trade or ever look at investing, but the market is certainly concerned about it. It’s something to keep in the back of your mind that this could fall apart and certainly cause a major pullback in the market. Now, at one point last year, we were talking about stocks making lower highs and lower lows, and Apple is starting to do that now, and that is a bit of a concern. You can see on a weekly chart of Apple, we made a new low for this move last week. Looking at a daily chart, we’re breaking down below the 200-day moving average. We haven’t broken away from it yet, but we are trading below it. When We are trading down in the pre-market this morning. So that is a concern for me. Apple is a stock I watch closely. It’s the most widely held stock in the world. And we are looking at the 181.25 level, and You can see we’re starting to break away from that heading towards the 175 level.

If things were to turn around on Monday, a close above $183.86 would give us a new buy signal for Apple. So far, we’re not expecting that to happen. And if it doesn’t happen on Monday, of course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. Now, NVIDIA is still the stock to watch. It made a new closing high on Friday. It’s important to remember that we’ve been through this before. This is the AI bubble. We did have a. Com bubble, and NVIDIA looked like this going into the pop of the bubble, and then after it burst, it was down over 90% from the high. Just keep that in the back of your mind that these bubbles usually pop, and when they pop, it’s not usually very pretty on the way back down. Certainly no sign of that starting on Monday morning. Now, I always tell you to always be upgrading. That’s the only way you can keep up with the market. That’s why the major stock market indices continue to move higher over time. You’ve probably heard the term buy and hold. While buying and hold individual stocks is incredibly risky. It’s very hard to tell which stock is going to be successful?

And of course, we can always look back in time and see what would have been the right move. But what you don’t see when you look back in time is all the stocks that are gone. And I always tell the story about IBM back in the ’50s. Yes, it would have been a great investment to buy IBM in 1954. But would you have done that? I mean, there were other computer companies at that time competing with IBM. On average, you probably didn’t pick IBM. You would have picked something else which isn’t around anymore. You need to always be upgrading the stocks in your portfolio to make sure that they are leading. And so the S&P 500 has decided to kick a couple of stocks out. They’re kicking out Whirlpool and Zion’s Bank. Those are coming out of the S&P 500. And what’s going in? Well, Deckers is going in, and Super Micro Computer is also going in. Now, Super Micro is part of the AI bubble, and it has gone from $100 to $1,000 in less than a year. Now, looking at earnings this week, Costco is the one that I’m watching closely, and it hit our next price target last week of 750, which is both a daily and a weekly price target.

The pros have been in control since early November. We’re coming in on Monday on a buy signal. Things would change on Monday if Costco were to close below $732.22. Now, we’re almost done here. Looking at the commodities, we had the energy sector up last week. Energy stocks in the US were up 1.37%. In Canada, they were up over 5%. That’s a lot to do with one stock. Then gold miners were up on the week. No change on a weekly basis, but we do have new daily buy signals. We ran into this situation a month ago. The signal only lasted a day. Hopefully, it will last much longer than that this time. Let’s finish off just noting that a sell signal is not necessarily a sell signal for everyone. In this presentation on a daily basis, we’re looking at the Daily Right Side Chart, which is a short term trading tool, and it’s really designed for swing traders. On Monday, we’re looking for a close below $432.87. Now, if you’re not a swing trader, you’re going to need more evidence that the market is changing direction, and on Monday, We’re looking for a close below $423.

If you’re a long-term investor and you’re not checking the charts daily, you’re going to need a close below $412.26 this coming Friday. If you’re a long term investor and really don’t want to trade the market at all, then you’re going to be waiting for a close below $400 before you jump ship. If we were to get down below $400, that would certainly be the sign that we are entering a bear market. And none of those have happened yet, but the first one we’re going to react to, of course, is the right side chart. And then over time, we’re going to need these other ones to start to fall before we get overly concerned about the health of the market. And none of that has happened so far. When it does happen, when we get our initial sell signal in the Nasdaq or the other major indices, that’s going to be a short term sell signal, and it’s not going to be for everyone. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. We are for a little selling at the open on Monday morning. Not enough to do any major damage from what’s happening in the pre-market this morning, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

Have a great day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, March 4, 2024

 

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. Dow Futures currently down 130 points. We do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that could change the direction of the market. And then we also have energy inventories coming out later in the morning. Moving on, looking at the We have VIX. The VIX is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. In the pre-market, and we’ve seen a lot of gaps higher and lower during earnings season. And here’s one stock gapping sharply higher this morning, and that is Beyond Meat. It’s up over 60% last time I checked, and that would be trading right off the top right-hand corner of the screen. So quite an impressive move for Beyond Meat in the pre-market. Now, we’ve got Bitcoin and Ethereum making new highs this morning, and that is going to help all the crypto-related stocks on Wednesday. We’ve got Bitfarm making a new high yesterday. We’ve got Coinbase making a new high. We’ve got a new high for Marathon.

We’ve got a new high for MicroStrategy, and I would assume those stocks are going to continue to move higher on Wednesday. Now, I’ve been watching Apple closely. It’s still trying to hold support here. Once again, it traded through the 181.25 level yesterday, but recovered going into the close. And a lot of people are paying attention right now because we are sitting on the 200-day moving average. So we are watching Apple closely, seeing if it can hold here or if it’s going to start to break down and open up to some new price targets to the downside. Then looking at Meta, Meta is still closing above the upper channel line. No change there. Looking at Microsoft, we may have put in a lower high here. Looking for a close on Wednesday below $404 97. And NVIDIA is still on a buy signal here last week. We actually generated a sell signal. We wait for the close to confirm a sell signal, and then we’re going to take that sell signal and do something with it the next morning. You come in the next morning and you find out that NVIDIA is gapping higher in the pre-market, so you can either take that sell signal and just go with it and lock in profits there, or just ignore the sell signal and just hold on.

And we’re We’ve still got a partial position in NVIDIA coming into Wednesday’s trading action. Then looking at Tesla, we’re still on a buy signal here, still dealing with the open gap at $206.77. You can see we’re still dealing with our mathematical resistance at $203.13. If we can take out that open gap, then 218.75 comes into play. Then what worked yesterday, well, it was biotechs were the big winners two days in a row, followed by US retail. And speaking of retail, Macy’s announced it was closing 150 stores yesterday, and that seemed to help the stock not hurt it, and it certainly helped the retail sector. Then we’ve got money still going into the mid Caps in the Russell 2000 and the micro-caps, and that’s a good sign for the market going forward. But we are incredibly overbought here, and this is a seasonally weak period for the stock market. So it’ll be interesting to see how this works itself out Of course, we’re going to take the signals as they come up. Let’s finish off looking at the world of commodities. Copper is still on a buy signal. Copper mining is still on a buy signal.

The price of gold and the GLD are still on buy signals. Unfortunately, nobody wants gold mining stocks at the moment, and even the juniors are still on a sell signal, so no change there. Then looking at silver, we’re back on a sell signal for silver and for the SLV. Then looking at the silver miners, no joy there. Down at the bottom of the range. Next up, looking at the energy sector, we’ve got both crude oil and natural gas moving up on the same day. And is that positive for energy stocks? No, energy stocks actually pulled back on the day. So no change in trend for energy stocks based on Tuesday’s trading action. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see a little selling at the open on Wednesday morning. Have a great day, folks. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

Stephen Whiteside

TheUpTrend.com

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet out there. Stock index futures trading right around fair value. We do have consumer confidence coming out later this morning, and that could add some volatility to the markets. Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a sell signal here. Inside day yesterday. Of course, inside day is a day of indecision, so the market generally had a pause day. Fairly quiet trading Starting for the Dow, for the S&P 500, and for the Nasdaq 100. We continue to see interest in the mid-caps and small-cap stocks right now, which is a healthy sign for the market. Well, hopefully that will continue over time. Now, looking We did the Canadian market, it was fairly quiet on Monday. We did see a pullback for the TSX and the TSX-60, but we did not close below the previous day’s low. Mid-caps and small-caps had an inside day, while the Venture Exchange actually closed higher on the day, so no trend there. We’re still on a buy signal for the venture exchange. What worked on Monday, while InfoTech and Energy were the big winners, utilities, real estate were the losers, with utilities being the biggest loser of the day.

Looking at InfoTech, we’re still on a sell signal here. It would be helpful if we could get Shopify to get back on a buy signal, but we do have Bitfarm with a big reversal day yesterday, shooting right back up to the previous There’s highs. Celestica made a new high on Monday, no change there. Inside day for Docebo with a small pullback. Then we saw a new high for CGI before closing lower on the day. No joy for Lightspeed, and unfortunately, no joy for Opentext. Moving on to the energy sector. Energy stocks made a new high for this move on Monday. Athabasca made a new high. We’ve got Birchcliff just treading water at the moment, still on a buy signal here. We saw a Bayek close higher by five cents on Monday. Looking at Crescent Point, we added nine cents. And then looking at Cenovus, Cenovus was up 15 cents on the day with a new closing high for this move. And We’re going to be looking at White Cap and Inside Day on Monday, no change in trend. Now, we’ve got Canadian banks releasing earnings this week, and we’re getting some today. The financial sector hit a new high yesterday before pulling back.

That had a lot to do with With Canadian banks pulling back, we’re sitting right on the upper channel line there, so not a very strong sector at the moment. We’ve got Bank of Montreal closing in the channel. We’ve got Bank of Nova Scotia closing in the channel, so those two Could certainly generate sell signals here. Little more interest in CIBC and the National Bank, but not by much. The Royal Bank still treading water here. Yes, we’re technically on a buy signal, but closing right under the upper channel line. So again, the Royal Bank has not been trending for a couple of months now. And then looking at the TD Bank, once again, we’ve got a bank closing in the channel. So we’re setting ourselves up here for some sell signals in the banking sector. Last up, let’s take a look at the gold mining stocks. And gold miners had an inside day on Monday, so there’s something hopeful. And we do have the price of gold up in the pre-market on Tuesday morning. Inside day for Barrick on Monday, new low for B2Gold, and then just a sample of a silver stock, Wheaton Precious Metals, new closing low, and a new low for this move for Wheaton.

Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open at 9:30. Have a great day. Next time, you’ll hear my voices on Wednesday morning, and at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the US stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures and commodities are slightly below fair value, but there’s certainly no sign of aggressive selling coming into Monday morning. Hey, I’ve been off a couple of days. I’ve been sick. That hasn’t changed much. But last week, you couldn’t have heard me speak. So the first time I’ve had a cold since before COVID. So hopefully this won’t continue for very long. We’ve got Bitcoin and Ethereum both hitting new highs last week with the overall stock market. The VIX on a weekly basis is still on a sell signal. That’s supportive for higher stock prices. On a daily basis, we’re back on a sell signal as of Friday’s close, and of course, that can be supportive for higher stock prices going forward. Now, the VIX did trade up through $15 as we were expecting, and we did get some gyrations in the market. Remember, we had a daily sell signal in the Dow, then we had a daily signal in the Nasdaq, and both of them flipped back during the week. And so we’re fully back on daily buy signals for all the major indices.

Looking at the S&P 500, it has broken through 5,000. It is still closing above it. It certainly dipped through it last week, so it’s not a huge area of support. It’s just we are trading above a psychological number. We’ll have to see how long we can stay above it, but we certainly closed above the previous week’s high. That had a lot to do with NVIDIA, which came out with earnings, and we got a sell signal going into earnings, and then the next morning, we woke up and saw that after the earnings announcement, traders traded the stock sharply higher, and so there was no reason to take that sell signal. So far in 2024, NVIDIA is up another 59% leading the S&P 500 higher for the year. Then we’ve got Metta up 36.37%, and then we’ve got Eli Lilly up 32.01 %. Tapestry up 33.89 %. Catalent up 30.8 % so far in 2024. Now, what hasn’t worked on the S&P 500? Well, I’m not going to go through too many of them, but MarketAxess is the big loser, followed by Arthur Daniels Midland. And then the only gold mining stock in the S&P 500 Newmont down over 24% year to date.

And that’s, of course, not a good sign for a Canadian investor who follows a lot of gold stocks. Now, looking at the TSX, the TSX is also making new highs right now. And as you can see, we still have a ways to go before we hit the all-time high, but we are certainly clearing the highs from 2023. 2023 was a very rough year for the TSX. We couldn’t get everybody lined up at the same time. Information technology did well throughout the year. Now, we’ve got financials back in sync with the rest of the market. We’ve got energy stocks moving higher. That can help the TSX. Then, unfortunately, gold stocks made a new low last week. Even though the price of gold was up on the week, gold stocks are not in favor at the moment. Now, so far in 2024, Celestica has been the big winner up over 40%, looking at Aritzia up over 32%, and then we’ve got Trisura, up over 27%, and then we’ve got Tricon, up nearly 25%. That stock looks like it’s going to be taken out. Then SSR mining is the big loser on the TSX, down over 55%, followed by a NovaGold, down over 34% year to date.

Let’s finish off with a quick look at commodities. Crude oil is down on the week, still holding We have it in there. We did not close below the previous week’s low. Natural gas up 1% in change on the week. No change in trend there. Then looking at a couple of the inflation components, we’ve got corn making a new low. We’ve got soy beans down at the previous low from last year. Then we’re looking at wheat, and wheat’s holding the low that it hit a couple of months ago, so no change in trend there. Then looking at copper. Copper is back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday’s close. Gold was It’s up on the week, up over $25, closing just above the previous week’s high, which could turn out to be bullish for the price of gold. Then we’ve got the price of silver, unfortunately, going the opposite direction. So we’re still on a weekly sell signal for silver. They And then, Coco hit a new high. Look for upward pressure on the price of chocolate bars or the quality of those chocolate bars is going to continue to deteriorate. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

So far, it It looks like we’re going to have a fairly quiet open on Monday morning. Have a great day. Next time, you’ll hear my voice, hopefully on Tuesday morning. Good morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Monday, February 26, 2024

 

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. Stock index futures and commodities are slightly below fair value. The market is waiting for a couple of things this morning. First of all, we’ve got the Fed Minutes coming out later today, and then the world is going to be watching for NVIDIA’s earnings after ours. Nvidia sold off yesterday. Not enough to give us a sell signal. We’re sitting right on the edge. So a close on Wednesday below, $692.88 would give us a new sell signal for NVIDIA. Now, the VIX is already on a buy signal. We had a wild day a week ago, and we have not settled down at all. And this is the time and place where the VIX moves up on a seasonal basis, and that, of course, is negative for stocks. Looking for a close on Wednesday below 13.57 to give us a new sell signal for the VIX, that, of course, would be supportive for higher stock prices. Now, we saw a lot of selling in technology, especially the chip sector yesterday, and that caused the Nasdaq 100 to generate a new daily sell signal.

Now, we had one a few weeks ago, and it quickly reversed, and that could certainly be the case once again, but we need to take the signals as they come up. Now, I’ve been watching Apple closely to see if it could hold the recent lows, and we were down there testing them yesterday and still holding the recent lows. Of course, it opens up a whole new world to the downside if we take to check out the low from a couple of weeks ago. Now, a couple of stocks in the news this morning. First of all, Amazon, which traded through the lower channel line yesterday but did not close below it. We’re looking for a close below $166.99 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. It’s going to be replacing Walgreens in the Dow 30. So just like what you should be doing, the major indices are always upgrading the stocks in those indices, and that’s something that you should always be doing, always be upgrading. Now moving on to the Canadian stock market, and we’ll start off looking at the seasonality chart for the TSX. This is historically a strong period for the Canadian Stock Market.

The reason for that, of course, it’s RRSP season and a lot of money enters the market this time of the year, and it usually goes into the most conservative investments, the most conservative stocks. Then after our RRSP season is over, you can see the big dip that we usually get in March. That’s usually what happens, but There’s no guarantee. But to hear that the TSX is up making multi-year highs at this particular time is not that unusual. Here we are. The TSX is up at resistance. It’s been there several times over the past month. You can see that since we entered this zone back in December, we’ve been stuck between these two lines. Of course, we’re looking for a breakout or a breakdown from this particular range, and we’re up at the top of the range at the moment. That’s also true for the TSX-60. Then we’ve got mid-caps, small caps, and microcaps all on short-term buy signals right now, but none are trending anywhere at the moment. Now, what worked yesterday, what didn’t work? Well, Consumer Staples were the winners, while the big losers was Info direct, just like in the US. When we look at Consumer Staples, the index made a new high yesterday.

You can see that Circle K had a great day. We saw Loblaw’s continued to move higher. We’ve got Metro on a buy signal right now. We’ve got It’s George Weston making a new high yesterday. What’s not working in this sector, Empire is not working at the moment. It is on a buy signal, but then we saw a pullback yesterday. So a close below $33.97 on Wednesday would give us a new sell signal for Empire. Then looking at the financials, which should be a strong sector at this particular time, you can see we’re on a buy signal making a new high yesterday. All the major banks are on buy signals right now. If we just to walk through them quickly, there is one anomaly, and that is the TD Bank really not pulling its weight at the moment. It is on a buy signal at the moment, but as you can see, we pulled back on Tuesday. And then the regional banks, Canadian Western Bank, had a big update yesterday. It’s back on a buy signal, joining Laurentian Bank already on a buy signal. Then looking at the industrials, and the biggest component in the industrials is the railroads.

And so we do have CN and CP both still on buy signals right now. That’s holding up the industrial sector. Now, one stock in the industrial sector, and I don’t know why it’s in the industrial sector, but TELUS International has had a great run over the past couple of weeks. You can see it’s had a great run since the low back in late October. Then looking at Info Tech, we’re on a sell signal right now. Of course, that has a lot to do with Shopify, but a lot of the most traded Infotec stocks are not doing well at the moment. There’s light speed, there’s open text. We’ve got Blackberry still on a sell signal, no change there. No joy for Enghouse still on a sell signal. New low yesterday for Quarterhill before closing higher on the day. Certainly no change in trend there. And then Shopify still on a sell signal from last week. No change in trend for Shopify. A couple of stocks in the infotech sector that are still working, CGI and Celestica. Celestica trading in the channel yesterday. A close below 49.74 would give us a sell signal on Wednesday. And Bitfarm, which had a huge up week last week, made a new high yesterday before pulling back.

So no change in trend for Bitfarm. Let’s finish off looking at the world of commodities. And we’ve been watching energy stocks on a buy signal for the past week, made a new high for this move yesterday before pulling back. We still have Baytex, Crescent Point, Athabasca all still on buy signals. No change there. Then looking at the most actively traded Canadian energy stock, we’ve got Suncor, which has a very interesting chart pattern here. We’ve got something for everyone. We’ve got higher lows, which are bullish. We’ve got lower highs, which is bearish. We’re working ourselves into a triangle here, looking to see which way we’re going to break out. The energy sector is currently on a buy signal, so we’re hoping it breaks out to the upside. Let’s finish off looking at the world of gold. Gold stocks traded up to the upper channel line yesterday, so there’s the potential for a buy signal on Wednesday, but gold’s down just a few pennies in the pre-market this morning. Still waiting for Barrick, looking for a close on Wednesday above $20.07, and that would join a Agnico Eagle already on a buy signal. No joy for B2Gold.

Dundee Precious Metals was the top performer on the TSX yesterday. Third day of a buy signal, big pop there. Then looking at Endeavor Mining, no change. Looking for a close on Wednesday above $22.57. Now, Franco-Nevada, not a stock we talk about very often, but has been trading sideways for a couple of months now. When this happens, it’s often good just to stand back a bit and take a look at the midterm chart or even look at the weekly chart to see what it’s going to take to really change the direction for this stock. And as you can see, we’ve had a lot of our early warning signals over the past couple of months, but we really haven’t been able to break out above 150. And so that’s what we’re looking for right now is to break out above to tell us that investors think that something new is starting to happen for this stock. Otherwise, it’s been dead in the water for a couple of months now. Then looking at Kinross, no joy here. We need to close above $7.13 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation.

Looking for a fairly quiet open this morning as the market gets ready to digest the minutes from the last Fed meeting. Then, of course, a lot of technology investors are going to be waiting for the NVIDIA earnings which come out after the market closes later today. Have a great day, folks. Next time, you’ll hear my voices on Thursday morning, and at that time, we’ll take a closer look at the US stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com I hope everyone had a wonderful long weekend and you’re all rested and ready to go. In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures and crude oil are trading lower while gold is trading higher in the pre-market on Tuesday morning. Now, there’s a lot going on in the pre-market this morning. One of the big headlines is Capital One is buying Discover. Capital One, of course, is trading lower this morning while Discover is trading higher in the pre-market. Market. Now, this week, we’ve got NVIDIA coming out with earnings, and that could certainly shake the market. We’re also going to see the minutes from the last Fed meeting that, again, could certainly disturb the market. Now, looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, we’re entering what is seasonally a strong period for the VIX. If we go back to 2023, you can see that we had a couple of weeks where we really spiked before reversing and coming down again. We’re expecting that to happen once again in 2024. Of course, the VIX spiking is negative for stocks. We thought it started last Tuesday with a big spike in the VIX, but the market pulled back going into the end of the week.

We’re still long-term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.02 this coming Friday. Now, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see that spike on Tuesday, and then we retreated on Wednesday, Thursday, and moved up a little on Friday. But we’re going to still be short term bearish on the market as long as the VIX continues to close above 13.40 on Tuesday. And you can see the lower trend line is starting to trend higher. So if we don’t close below 13.40 on Tuesday, then It’ll be a higher level Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Now, last week we were talking about the S&P 5,000, and we were able to break out above that and trade above it. We ended the week closing above it, but we’re currently trading below that level level, so it’s not holding in the pre-market on Tuesday morning. Now, once we broke through the S&P 500, 5,000 level, we were looking to see how long it would hold. Unfortunately, it’s not holding that long. We are trading below that level in the pre-market. And looking at the SPY ETF, we closed Friday just below the $500 level, and we are trading lower in the pre-market this morning.

Now, looking at a daily chart of the Dow Diamonds, we generated a sell signal on Tuesday. That was the only major index to do so. And then we came right back on Thursday, back on a buy signal. So we’re coming into this week with all the major index ETFs on buy signals right now. The first thing we look for in the weekly charts, if we’re going to see a pullback in the market as it closed below the previous week’s low. For the Dow, since the October low, we haven’t had that happen. For the S&P 500, we certainly did. And for the Nasdaq 100, we also had a week where we closed below the previous week’s low, but we did not have any fall through to the downside. So anytime there’s a one bar event, whether you’re looking at a daily or a weekly chart, we’re looking for a follow through in the same direction, and you can see we had complete reversals to the upside. So Again, it’s the first thing you look for. It isn’t all you look for, but it’s the first sign that something is about to change, and then we look for confirmation.

So we are looking for a close below last week’s low this week to see if the market is ready to head lower. Now, one bullish sign last week was a lot of interest in mid-caps, small caps, and micro-caps. You can see the Russell 2000 trading up to the previous high, and the Russell micro-caps also trading up to the previous high. Then looking at the Canadian market, the iShows for the TSX-60 had a wild week. We traded down through the lower channel line and then ended the week making a new high. That was quite a wild week. One stock that’s in the news this morning that’s in the TSX-60 is Loblaw. They’re out a big announcement, spending a lot of money, creating a lot of jobs. Let’s see how the market reacts to that news. But as you can see, the stock is doing incredibly well at the moment. Now, what worked last week was actually Canadian energy stocks were the big winners, up over 4%, not enough to give us a weekly buy signal, but enough to extend the daily buy signal that started recently. We made a new high for this move and started to break out above the high from a couple of weeks ago.

And we’re stuck at the 200 and 100 day moving averages, looking to see if we can break out above that this week. US Energy stocks were also big winners, up 2.71% and back on a weekly buy signal. Now, going through the Dow 30 this morning, I noticed there were three Dow 30 stocks that generated weekly sell signals last week, including Apple, Amgen, and Cisco, are all back on weekly sell signals. Now, a couple of stocks that are not on weekly sell signals. We’ve got Home Depot out with earnings, and they beat expectations, but not making investors happy this morning. And on the daily chart, we’re looking at a new daily sell signal for Home Depot. On the other hand, we’ve got Walmart out with earnings, and Walmart is trading higher in the pre-market this morning. So Walmart’s winning, Home Depot is losing on Tuesday morning. Now, Apple’s back on a weekly sell signal, and I just want to look at Apple for a minute. We’re looking at a daily chart here. You can see we peaked back in December. Then we drove down into year-end, and then we made a higher low, and then started to move up.

Then we actually made a lower high, and after that lower high, we made a lower low. So that’s a pattern that we want to break. Unfortunately, in February, it looks like we recently put in a lower high, and now we’ll look to see if we can put in a lower low and see if that pattern continues. Now, there’s a lot of support at the 181.25 level. Yes, We did below it several times, but pulled back very quickly. The 181.25 level is the high from back in October. Now, if we look at when we started to trade above that level back in the start of November, Most of the trading activity has been between 181.25 and 193.75. Yes, we traded above it, but the majority of the trading activity has been between those two levels. If we start breaking down and take out that recent low, then 175 and 168.75 do come into play. So just be aware of that. Let’s finish off looking at the world of commodities. Starting with the metals, we had a nice up week for copper. Not enough to give us a buy signal, but copper stocks were up nicely.

Again, not enough to give us a weekly buy signal. Gold finished the week on a sell signal. It’s reversing that in the pre-market this morning. The GLD, on the other hand, did not generate a sell signal. We need a close below 185.82 this coming Friday. And then looking at gold stocks, we had the GDX close slightly lower on the week after making a nice low last week. We had a new low for the XGD and then close slightly lower on the week. Similar situation for the junior gold miners. The price of silver was up nicely last week for both the Futures contract and for the SLV. Unfortunately, silver miners ended the week lower on the week, so the interest in silver miners needs to catch up with It might do that this week. Then looking at crude oil, we’re still on a buy signal here trading higher. Unfortunately, natural gas was down another 10% and change. Looking at the seasonality of natural gas, this is a very weak period and the weakest period of the year. As we get into March, we’ll hopefully look for the seasonality to kick in and for natural gas prices to start to move higher.

Energy stocks, as we mentioned, were up on the week. Not enough to give us a weekly buy signal in Canada, but we did get a weekly buy signal in the US. Of course, energy stocks in the US, a lot of them have a global presence, which the Canadian energy stocks do not. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning’s presentation. So far, it looks like we’re going to see some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. Have a great day. Next time, you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. And on Wednesday morning, we’re going to take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. Commodities are mixed with crude oil, lower, while gold is higher by $3 in the pre-market. Now, we do have a lot of economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, including retail sales and jobless claims, and that could certainly add to the pre-market volatility. Starting off, looking at the VIX, which spiked sharply sharply higher on on Tuesday, and we pulled back on Wednesday, had an inside day. So on Thursday, we’re looking for the VIX to close below 13.21 to put us back on a bullish footing. We still have the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 on buy signals. They recovered nicely on Wednesday, but still pretty close to generating a daily sell signal, so we should be on guard. Looking at the Canadian market, the market recovered quite nicely on Wednesday, not enough to give us new buy signals for the The TSX, the TSX 60, mid-caps, small-caps, or micro-caps. Now, looking at the sector performance from Wednesday’s trading action, all sectors were positive for the day, being led higher by Infotec, and We’re still on a sell signal here.

We came down hard on Tuesday, and we did trade back into the channel on Wednesday. The biggest winners in the sector on Wednesday were Bitfarm and Hut8. Those were the two best-performing Infotec stocks. Then looking at the industrials, dipped into the channel on Tuesday. Big recovery on Wednesday, being led higher by the railroads, still both on buy signals. Then looking at consumer staples, huge update there. It was Circle K led the pack, followed by Loblaw’s, which is back on a buy signal as of Wednesday’s close. Looking at the world of commodities, starting in the energy sector, we saw crude oil pull back yesterday. It’s pulling back again in the pre-market. Not enough to It’s going to give us a sell signal today. And then we’ve got natural gas making a new low on Wednesday. So both of those commodities did not help the energy sector, and we did have an inside day closed unchanged on the day. So for the energy ETF, we’re looking for a close on Thursday below $15.14. Then looking at the miners, starting with the price of gold. Gold is trying to hold 2000 here. If we break that, then 1937.50 would be our next target to the downside.

And silver is trying to hold $22 and traded and closed higher yesterday. Still on a sell signal, no change there. No change for gold stocks, which made a new low yesterday, and the ETF closed down just a penny on the day. So a little bit of a recovery there. The first time something new is happening, of course, if we close above the previous day’s high, and we certainly didn’t do that yesterday. Okay, folks, that’s all for this morning’s presentation. I’m doing this ahead of the big economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, and they could certainly change the direction of the market. But so far, it looks like the market wants to have a positive open on Thursday morning. Enjoy the rest of your day. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

Stephen Whiteside
TheUpTrend.com
Thursday, February 15, 2024