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Stock Market Trends – Weekend Edition 08272023

This video has been translated into Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Hindi, Japanese, Korean, and Spanish.

Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing Television. Well, it’s Sunday, August 27, the last Sunday of August, and the market is still chasing that big shiny object, which is Nvidia. We did trade up just above $500 before reversing. It wasn’t an aggressive sell off.

We still closed higher on the day, and we’re looking to see if we can hold 437.50 as our current level of support. Looking at the weekly Right Side chart, you can see that this coming Friday, we’re looking for a close below 409 to give us a new weekly sell signal for Nvidia. Now looking at a weekly chart of the SPY, we did trade higher on the week just by a little over three quarters of a percent. It was an inside week for the overall stock market. You can see on our weekly Panic Zone chart the early warning signal that went off a couple of weeks ago.

We’re trading lower. We’re still projecting lower prices here. Looking at the daily Fly Paper Channel chart, you can see we traded halfway down the Fly Paper channel before finding some support. So we have a nice triangle. So looking for a breakout or a breakdown of this triangle, we’re currently oversold down at the bottom of the screen here, but not aggressively oversold.

So we haven’t seen any panic selling in the S&P 500 so far. Coming into Monday’s trading action, we’ll be looking for a close on Monday above $443.69 to give us a new daily buy signal for the SPY. Looking at the VIX. The VIX had an inside week. It’s still on a weekly buy signal that is supportive for lower stock prices.

So on a long term basis, we’re still bearish on a short term basis, we’re bullish, as the VIX has now generated a new daily sell signal that would change on Monday with a close above $17.40. So we’ve got a new sell signal in the VIX coming into the end of the month and coming into a three day long weekend. Both of those have a bullish bias to them. So even if we get bad news this week, it will be dampened because of the seasonal tendencies coming into month end and coming into a three day long weekend. Now, we need to do a little reality check here.

There is two completely different markets going on in 2023. Of course, we know about the Nasdaq 100 and the big cap tech stocks that are leading the market higher. So currently 73% of the Nasdaq 100 is actually positive for the year. The Nasdaq 100 is currently up 36.71%, being led higher by Nvidia and Meta. And of course, these two stocks are also in the S&P 500.

So they’re also propping that index up in the other direction. JD.Com is down 53.17%. Then we’ve got Moderna down 41.28%. And of course, in previous years, Moderna has been a big winner, but not in 2023. Then looking at the S&P 500, we only have 55% of the stocks on the S&P 500 currently positive for 2023.

Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 15.4%, so much less than the Nasdaq. Now the stocks that are leading the Nasdaq higher are also leading the S&P 500 higher, but on the downside, its Advanced Auto Parts is down 56.42% on the year. And then we’ve got Enphase Energy, which is down 53.17% so far this year. Then looking at the Dow, well, the numbers are a little easier here because there’s 30 stocks in the Dow 30. And with 16 winners and 14 losers, you’ve got one stock that is tipping the scale over from the losers to the winners.

So 53% of the Dow 30 stocks are currently positive for the year. Year to date, the Dow is only up 3.63%. So certainly, a huge difference between the Dow and the Nasdaq. The biggest winner on the Dow is Salesforce up 57.98%, followed by Apple up 37.47%. On the losing side, it’s Walgreens Boots down 32.39%, followed by MMM, down 17.49%.

Then looking at the Canadian market, again, similar to the S&P 500, we got 55% of the stocks on the TSX composite positive for the year. Year to date, we’re only up 2.33%, so less than the Dow. The biggest winner on the TSX composite is Celestica up 94.43%, followed by SNC-Lavalin up 79.88%. Now, what hasn’t been working on the TSX in 2023? Well, Telus International is down nearly 55%, and Aritzia is down nearly 48% on the year.

Then last up, we’re looking at the TSX 60. 58% of the stocks in the TSX 60 are positive for 2023, while the TSX 60 is only up 1.57%. So far for the year biggest winner, where we’re looking at Uranium up 61.29%, followed by online shopping with Shopify up 60.75%. What’s not working? Nutrien down 16.13%.

And then we’ve got Rogers Communications down 15.72%. Okay, that’s all I wanted to take a look at this weekend going forward for the week ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a positive week going into month end and the long weekend at the same time. It’s still pretty messy out there. We’re looking at to see what happens to Nvidia this week.

Does it continue to pull back or does new money come in and push it back to retest the $500 level? We’ll just have to wait and see. There was a lot of volatility on Friday with news out of Jackson Hole, but at the end of the day, the market was positive, so we could see a positive week for the week ahead. That’s probably not going to change things on a long term basis. I would imagine the market’s gonna make new lows in September and October, and then we’ll get ready for the end of year rally.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you’ll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

Stephen Whiteside

Sunday, August 27, 2023

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