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Hello, everyone. It’s Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this weekend’s edition of Stock Market Timing television. Let’s start off a little housekeeping. I won’t be doing any premarket videos this week, so the next time we’ll be analyzing the stock market together is going to be a week from today or next Sunday, Sunday, August 20th. Let’s start off with looking at the US $ index. It moved up once again for the third week in a row, and that is not helping the stock market at the moment. We also bonds close lower. The 30-year bond had an inside week. The 30-year bond yield had an inside week and moved up. We’re still looking to see if we can retest the highs from late in 2022. Looking at the VIX, the VIX pulled back this week into the channel, so certainly a possibility of a weekly sell signal this coming Friday if the market wants to move higher from here. Of course, the seasonality of August is to the downside, so we’ll just have to wait and see how things work out. But this coming Friday, we’ll be looking to see if the VIX closes below $13.72. Now, when we look at the daily charts for the VIX, you can see we traded down to the lower channel line two days in a row.
We’re still looking for a close on Monday below $14.81. Now, if you’ve been with us over the past month or so, we’ve been looking to see if the VIX could break out above the daily Fly Paper Channel. And yeah, on one day it certainly did that and then hit the 200 day moving average and came right back down. So right now we’re still stuck in the Fly Paper Channel looking to see if we can break down, if we can break out over $18, that would certainly be a very bearish sign for the stock market. Looking at the TSX, the TSX was actually up on the week, up 1.04 % and certainly a big winner when you compare it against the rest of the North American market. For the month, we’re still down on the month and still dealing with resistance at 31.25. So looking at a weekly price target chart, you can see we’ve been finding support for the last two weeks down to the 30.47 level. The market gave us a bearish reversal signal last week. We were looking for fall through to the downside to lock that signal in. So far that hasn’t happened, but what also hasn’t happened is we have not taken out the high from the previous week.
So looking to see if we can break out above 31.25 this week and take out above 31.25 this week and take out the high at 31.32. And if we can do that, then we would expect to move up to the 32.03 level. How are we going to be able to do that? Well, on the back of energy stocks. And if we can get crude oil to break out above resistance, we may be able to see energy stocks go back and retest the high from back in October of 2022. Looking at the US market and just looking at some monthly charts here, we’re down on the month for the S&P 500 for the Nasdaq. But so far, they’re still having inside months. So no major breakdown yet, unlike semiconductors, which have broken down, and technology stocks. So when you take those two out of the equation, you can see that what led the market higher, is starting to break down. So semiconductors were down over five %. The technology sector as a whole was down a tick under two and a half %, both back on weekly sell signals. Now, the energy sector in the US was the best performing sector, just like in Canada.
Again, we may be able to see a move up to back to the highs from late 2022 if we can get crude oil to continue to move higher. Now, taking a look at technology stocks, not all of them have broken down just yet. Apple is on its second week of a sell signal, so no change in trend there. Amazon still holding on. It had the big pop. I didn’t think it was going to be able to move higher from where it popped, and so far that is the case. But we certainly don’t have a sell signal for Amazon. Meta still trading and closing above the upper channel line, so no change in trend there. Unlike Microsoft, which is back on a sell signal as of Friday’s close, Amazon having an inside week, no change in trend there. Big down week for Invidea, and that helped push the semiconductors lower. On Friday, we’re looking for a close below $400.06 to give us a sell signal for Invidea. Shopify on both sides of the border has been on a sell signal since last week, so second week of a sell signal for Shopify. And then looking at Tesla down 4.42 % holding just above the lower channel line, so looking for a close this coming Friday below $240.08. Now, keeping with the technology stock theme, we haven’t talked about the ARK Invest ETFs in a while, and the best performing one this year is the Internet or web-related ETF, which is currently up over 50%.
Still on a buy signal here. We’re looking for a close this coming Friday below 57.32. As one would expect, we ran into the Fly Paper Channel and stopped. We became overbought. We got the Market Thermometer Indicator up to a 10, and now we’re starting to pull back. I’ve said lots of nasty things about ARC. It’s all related to money management, not to their stock picking skills. I’d still keep track of the stocks they’re following. That is still a good thing. But from where we are right now, we still need to go up over 100 % to get back to where we started to break down below the weekly Fly Paper Channel. And then, of course, we can go back to the all time high. And that’s still 200 % away from where we are right now. So money management skills, zero; stock picking skills, probably a 10. The fintech is up over 47 %. Again, we’ve run into the Fly Paper Channel. We were overbought. Now we’re starting to pull back. Then the ARKInnovations ETF, their main ETF, barely got into the Fly Paper Channel. It is currently up over nearly 37 %. Again, we became overbought.
Now we’re pulling back. Looking at the industrial innovation, or this would be the robotics ETF, it started to break out or trade above the Fly Paper Channel, never broke away from it. I traded up to the previous high and found resistance there. We are starting to pull back, not by a lot. Then looking at the space ETF, up 18 % change so far this year. Then looking at the laggart of the bunch is the genomics ETF, which is just under 13% at the present time. Again, same story, ran into the Fly Paper Channel, started to pull back. Now we’re waiting to see how low we can go and to see if there’s any low risk buying opportunities that’s set up in the not so distant future. Let’s finish off looking at commodities and lumber. Nothing going on there. Inside week for lumber. Almost an inside week. Yeah, that’s an inside week for wheat. Wheat still is in the news all the time. There’s really nothing going on there. Copper pulled back. It is back on a sell signal as of Friday’s close. That’s not good for mining stocks. Then, of course, we had gold down $29.50 on the week, still holding the low from a couple of months ago.
Silver was down over 4% on the week. Remember, silver generated a bearish reversal signal a month ago and was not able to trade through it. Then looking at the energy sector, crude oil still stuck at resistance. Remember, ‘81.25 was the top of our projected trading range on the daily charts. Coming over to the weekly charts, ‘87.50 is our next target. If we can break away from ‘81.25, so far we have not been able to do that. Natural gas finishing the week up nearly seven and a half %. Hopefully, we can get some upward momentum to continue. And last up, we’re looking at natural gas. Natural gas up nearly seven and a half % this week sitting right on the upper channel line. Hopefully, we can get something going on here with natural gas, and that would certainly help quite a few of the energy stocks to continue to move higher from here. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend’s presentation. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Enjoy your week. The next time you’ll hear my voice to talk about the stock market is going to be next Sunday.
Stephen Whiteside
Sunday, August 13, 2023
